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Most representative decision tree ensemble methods have been used to examine the variable importance of Treasury term spreads to predict US economic recessions with a balance of generating rules for US economic recession detection. A strategy is proposed for training the classifiers with Treasury term spreads data and the results are compared in order to select the best model for interpretability. We also discuss the use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework to understand US recession forecasts by analyzing feature importance. Consistently with the existing literature we find the most relevant Treasury term spreads for predicting US economic recession and a methodology for detecting relevant rules for economic recession detection. In this case, the most relevant term spread found is 3 month to 6 month, which is proposed to be monitored by economic authorities. Finally, the methodology detected rules with high lift on predicting economic recession that can be used by these entities for this propose. This latter result stands in contrast to a growing body of literature demonstrating that machine learning methods are useful for interpretation comparing many alternative algorithms and we discuss the interpretation for our result and propose further research lines aligned with this work.

Reports on our latest extractions of parton distribution functions of the nucleon are given. First an overview of the recent JR14 upgrade of our unpolarized PDFs, including NNLO determinations of the strong coupling constant and a discussion of the role of the input scale in parton distribution analysis. In the second part of the talk recent results on the determination of spin-dependent PDFs from the JAM collaboration are reported, including a careful treatment of hadronic and nuclear corrections, as well as reports on the impact of present and future data in our understanding of the spin of the nucleon., Comment: Proceedings of Light Cone 2014, Proceedings of QCD Evolution 2014, 6 pages, 5 figures

Global fits for precision determinations of parton distributions, together with the highly correlated strong coupling $\alpha_s$, are presented up to next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) of QCD utilizing most world data (charm and jet production data are used where theoretically possible), except TeVatron gauge boson production data and LHC data which are left for genuine predictions. This is done within the `dynamical' (valencelike input at $Q_0^2=0.8$ GeV$^2$) and `standard' (input at $Q_0^2=2$ GeV$^2$) approach. The stability and reliability of the results are ensured by including nonperturbative higher-twist terms, nuclear corrections as well as target mass corrections, and by applying various ($Q^2,W^2$) cuts on available data. In addition, the $Q_0^2$ dependence of the results is studied in detail. Predictions are given, in particular for LHC, on gauge and Higgs boson as well as for top-quark pair production. At NNLO the dynamical approach results in $\alpha_s(M_Z^2)=0.1136\pm0.0004$, whereas the somewhat less constrained standard fit gives $\alpha_s(M_Z^2)=0.1162\pm0.0006$., Comment: 33 pages, 12 figures

A summary of the recent experimental, phenomenological and theoretical results presented in the Structure Functions working group at DIS2012 workshop., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, to be published in the Proceedings of the XX International Workshop on Deep Inelastic Scattering, University of Bonn, 26-30th March 2012

A first systematic study of the effects of the choice of the input scale in global determinations of parton distributions and QCD parameters is presented. It is shown that, although in principle the results should not depend on these choices, in practice a relevant dependence develops as a consequence of what is called procedural bias. This uncertainty should be considered in addition to other theoretical and experimental errors, and a practical procedure for its estimation is proposed. Possible sources of mistakes in the determination of QCD parameter from parton distribution analysis are pointed out., Comment: 8 pages, 1 table, 3 figures

The present status of the (JR) dynamical parton distribution functions is reported. Different theoretical improvements, including the determination of the strange sea input distribution, the treatment of correlated errors and the inclusion of alternative data sets, are discussed. Highlights in the ongoing developments as well as (very) preliminary results in the determination of the strong coupling constant are presented., Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, Talk given at the XX International Workshop on Deep-Inelastic Scattering and Related Subjects (DIS2012)

This document is intended as a study of benchmark cross sections at the LHC (at 7 TeV) at NLO using modern parton distribution functions currently available from the 6 PDF fitting groups that have participated in this exercise. It also contains a succinct user guide to the computation of PDFs, uncertainties and correlations using available PDF sets. A companion note, also submitted to the archive, provides an interim summary of the current recommendations of the PDF4LHC working group for the use of parton distribution functions and of PDF uncertainties at the LHC, for cross section and cross section uncertainty calculations., Comment: 35 pages

A new generation of (unpolarized) dynamical parton distribution functions of the nucleon is determined. After introducing basic elements of perturbative QCD, the dynamical model is discussed and compared with the approach to parton distributions used by most other groups ("standard"). Parton distributions sets (with uncertainties) at different orders (LO, NLO, NNLO), using different factorization schemes (\overline{MS}, DIS) and different treatments of heavy quark masses (FFNS, VFNS) are extracted and compared. The astrophysical implications of the dynamical predictions are outlined before focusing on collider phenomenology. There, the relevance and perturbative stability of the longitudinal structure function of the nucleon is studied, and the role of heavy quark flavors in high-energy colliders is analyzed. In addition, it is shown how isospin violations in the nucleon help to explain the so-called "NuTeV anomaly"., Comment: Ph.D. Thesis, 98 pages