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Abstract Urban land and its expansion have profoundly impacted the global environment, including the stress change in the earth’s subsurface, even though urban land is a small fraction of the global land surface. Divulging such effects has never been more important, given the role of stress in determining the safety of the urban population against earthquakes. However, knowledge of this time-dependent non-linear effect of urbanization on the subsurface remains in the gray area. This study focuses on the area surrounding Delhi, the capital city of India, to understand the relative contribution of the building load created by rapid urbanization in exacerbating the subsurface state-of-stress. The results highlight that, since 2010, the modulation in the seismicity rate and the stability of basement thrust faults is linked not only to urbanization but also to decadal groundwater storage. Mounting evidence suggests that the rapid urbanization, and the resulting non-tectonic horizontal compression, stabilize faults in the Aravalli Delhi belt, which are destabilized due to the extensive groundwater extraction. This affects the decadal seismicity trend around the Aravalli Delhi fold belt. Nonetheless, the magnitude of this time-dependent deformation influence on the seismicity modulation remains uncertain. The findings from this study quantify the geomechanical impacts of urbanization in the Delhi area for the first time.

Abstract The non-tectonic deformation, either of natural or anthropogenic origin, may influence the earthquake occurrence process and seismicity rate along the plate-boundary or ‘stable’ plate-interiors domains. The low magnitude but moderate seismicity rate of Delhi region on the stable plate-interiors domains of India, exhibits significant variation both in short-term at annual seasonal scale and in long-term at decadal scale. It correlates with the anthropogenic groundwater pumping for the extensive irrigation, urban activities, and seasonally controlled hydrological loading cycle of Indo-Ganga Basin hosted freshwater aquifers. Our coupled hydro-mechanical simulation and poro-mechanical analysis of basement fault stability suggest that the combined aquifer contraction and basement rock expansion act together to modulate the effective stress regime and anthropogenic seismicity on the basement faults in Delhi region.