Search

This study investigates the structure and evolution of a summertime convective event that occurred on 14 July 2015 over the Arabian region. We use the WRF Model with 1-km horizontal grid spacing and test three PBL parameterizations: the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) scheme; the Asymmetrical Convective Model, version 2, (ACM2) scheme; and the quasi-normal scale-elimination (QNSE) scheme. Convection initiates near the Al Hajar Mountains of northern Oman at around 1100 local time (LT; 0700 UTC) and propagates northwestward. A nonorographic convective band along the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) develops after 1500 LT as a result of the convergence of cold pools with the sea breeze from the Arabian Gulf. The model simulation employing the QNSE scheme simulates the convection initiation and propagation well. Although the MYNN and ACM2 simulations show convective initiation near the Al Hajar Mountains, they fail to simulate the development of the convective band along the UAE west coast. The MYNN run simulates colder near-surface temperatures and a weaker sea breeze, whereas the ACM2 run simulates a stronger sea breeze but a drier lower troposphere. Sensitivity simulations using horizontal grid spacings of 9 and 3 km show that lower-resolution runs develop broader convective structures and weaker cold pools and horizontal wind divergence, affecting the development of convection along the west coast of the UAE. The 1-km run using the QNSE PBL scheme realistically captures the sequence of events that leads to the moist convection over the UAE and adjacent mountains.

Severe thunderstorms are a global phenomena, producing a variety of hazards that include hail, tornadoes, damaging winds lightning and heavy precipitation. In the present climate, these events produce large losses to property and life. The warming climate is expected to influence these storm attributes, primarily through increasing thermodynamic instability driven by increased atmospheric moisture as warming occurs to near-surface temperatures. However, while a number of studies have explored how the climate system modulates these hazards through changes to favorable environmental conditions, these projections have generally been latitudinally biased away from the subtropics and focused on potentially aggressive warming scenarios. This presents a challenge to our understanding, as many parts of the world that currently regularly experience severe thunderstorms exist in different climate regimes or latitudes, and which exhibit non-linear responses to the warming climate. Hence what is known for some latitudes and warming scenarios may not reflect a complete picture of the expected changes to hazards on a global level.This presentation seeks to share newly developed insights into the frequency at which environments favorable to severe convection occur in particular regions, with a focus on identifying potential model biases. Extending from historical frequency, how these environments will evolve in response to moderately and strongly warmed scenarios in terms of both climate variability and change as projected using the latest generation of Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) data is explored. Results highlight that increases over the Northern and Western hemispheres are not necessarily reflective of changes in the subtropics and Southern hemisphere, and may respond differently depending on the environmental proxy used. While the driving mechanism of these changes are strong increases in CAPE, these changes can be modulated by local processes, and are often accompanied by factors that either resist convection (CIN), or seasonally may coincide with high likelihood of storm organization (S06, SRH).

We investigated the time evolution of heat waves and warm nights over the 7 agro-climatic zones of Tamil Nadu, India, during the period 1951-2016, including the spatiotemporal patterns of concurrent hot day and hot night (CHDHN) episodes and the concurrent warm spells in daytime temperature and drought (CWD) episodes. The research relied upon gridded temperature and rainfall observations from the India Meteorological Department. We used the Heat-Wave Magnitude Index daily to study the warm spells in daytime and nighttime temperature, while the analysis of droughts was based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. We observed a considerable increase in the count, intensity and duration of heat waves and warm night episodes across Tamil Nadu between the periods 1951-1983 and 1984-2016. Particularly, the number of heat wave events almost doubled in the second half of the study period. We observed a west-east gradient in the severity of heat waves. The intensity and duration of warm night events increased up to 3-fold in the second half of the study period, especially over central Tamil Nadu. The study recorded a multi-fold increase in the number and frequency of CHDHN episodes and the number of CWD episodes during 1984-2016 compared to the base period 1951-1983. More importantly, the incidence of compound events that coexisted with anomalous phases of sea surface temperatures registered a statistically significant spike in many locations. These changes in temperature-induced extremes pose an exceptional public health threat that can increase morbidity and mortality, disproportionately affecting vulnerable sections of Tamil Nadu’s populace engaged in outdoor work.

In the present study, we examined the exposure of the Tamil Nadu region, India, to droughts and extreme rainfall events using the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and a classification scheme based on daily rainfall. We used high-resolution temperature and rainfall observations from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1951-2016. The robustness of the results was tested using the Mann-Kendall trend (M-K) test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. During the study period, there were statistically significant increasing trends in drought area (90% significance level), maximum drought intensity (99% significance level) and maximum drought severity (99% significance level) over the Tamil Nadu region. There has also been an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in recent years. The spatio-temporal dimensions of this study suggest an increasing exposure of this semi-arid, rain shadow region to severe droughts and extreme rainfall events in recent decades. The results provide sufficient grounds to substantiate the necessity of immediate interventions at the policy level.

The predictive skill of the weather research and forecasting model is examined, and the improved performance with the 4-D variational (4DVar) data assimilation scheme over the 3-D variational (3DVar) scheme is quantified for the simulation of four tropical cyclones over the Indian region by generating a large number of analysis/forecast samples. Satellite radiance, satellite-derived winds, and conventional observations are assimilated cyclically for both 3DVar and 4DVar experiments at an interval of 6 h. Each of the analyses is then subjected to a short-range free forecast, lasting 48 h. The analysis fields are found to capture the features of all the cyclones more realistically when the model is initialized with the 4DVar assimilation. Free forecasts from the 4DVar analysis fields are superior in simulating the intensity and position of the storm for most of the times. Rainfall simulation also shows marked improvement in terms of the equitable threat score for the 4DVar run. Furthermore, in the case of cyclone Phailin, it is noted that the 4DVar run could successfully capture the rapid intensification phase. On an average, the simulation of intensity and position has shown an improvement of 2%–43% and 22%–57%, respectively, by the 4DVar run at different forecast lead times.

The present study aims to investigate the impact of assimilating SAPHIR Sounder for Probing Vertical Profiles of Humidity radiances in the simulation of tropical cyclones over the Indian region by the Weather Research and Forecasting WRF model. Three tropical cyclones which formed over the Bay of Bengal are chosen as the case studies. Since SAPHIR is a humidity microwave sensor, it is interesting to assess the impact of these observations in simulating cyclones which depend significantly on moist-convective processes. The study makes use of the three-dimensional variational 3DVar assimilation technique of the WRF variational assimilation system. The results of the study indicate that the assimilation of SAPHIR radiances do have a positive impact on the simulation of tropical cyclones considered here. Two model simulations are performed – a control run Ctrl with only conventional and satellite wind observations assimilated, and a SAPH run SAPH where SAPHIR radiances are also assimilated in addition to conventional and satellite wind observations. Both these simulations are compared to each other and to observations from the India Meteorological Department IMD, Joint Typhoon Warning Centre JTWC, and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission TRMM, as well as analysis fields from Global Forecast System GFS from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction NCEP. Comparison of minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed simulated by the model with the IMD and JTWC observations shows that the SAPHIR assimilation has a moderate impact on the simulation of these features by the model. Track prediction of the model is also improved at initial forecast times, as evidenced by the reduced track errors in the model run with SAPHIR radiances assimilated. The warm core structure, as well as the relative vorticity structure of the cyclones, are also impacted in a moderate manner by the assimilation of SAPHIR radiances. The assimilation also positively impacted the rainfall simulation of the model. This is seen from the higher equitable threat score, lower false alarm ratio, and higher probability of detection estimated with respect to TRMM observations, in the SAPH run as compared to the Ctrl run.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes are important in both the clinical manifestation of disease and treatment response. Although Kenya belongs to the African Region (AFR-E) characterized by high mortality and hyperendemicity of HBV, there is a paucity of HBV genotyping data. The aim of this study was to molecularly characterize the basic core promoter/precore (BCP/PC) and complete surface (S) regions of HBV isolated from 61 HBsAg-positive liver disease patients attending Kenyatta National Hospital in Nairobi. HBsAg, HBeAg and viral loads were determined. HBV DNA was amplified and sequenced from 58/61 patients. In addition to the complete genome of two isolates, the BCP/PC and the complete S regions of 43 and 38 isolates, respectively were sequenced. Following phylogenetic analysis of the S region, 38 isolates clustered with subgenotype A1, whereas two isolates clustered with genotype D, one with subgenotype D1 and another as an outlier of the clade containing subgenotype D6 and the D/E recombinant. When the complete genome of the latter isolate was sequenced it clustered with D6. The majority of isolates belonged to serological subtype adw2 and only four to ayw2. Three distinct groups of subgenotype A1, distinguished by different amino acid motifs, circulate in Kenya: two in the African cluster and a monophyletic clade in the "Asian" cluster. HBeAg-negativity was a result of G1896A in genotype D isolates, whereas in subgenotype A1, the HBeAg-negativity was a result of mutations in the Kozak region (1809-1812) or precore start codon (1814-1816). Mutations at positions 1762 and 1764 occurred more frequently in HCC patients (p

Impact of SAPHIR radiance assimilation on the simulation of tropical cyclones over Indian region has been investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three cyclones that formed over Bay of Bengal have been considered in the present study. Assimilation methodology used here is the three dimensional variational (3DVar) scheme within the WRF model. With the initial and boundary conditions from Global Forecasting System (GFS) analyses from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a control run (CTRL) without assimilation of any data and a 3DVar run with the assimilation of SAPHIR radiance have been performed. Both model simulations have been compared with the observations from India Meteorological Department (IMD), Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), and analysis fields from GFS. Detailed analysis reveals that, the SAPHIR radiance assimilation has led to significant improvement in the simulation of all the three cyclones in terms of cyclone track, intensity, accumulated rainfall. The simulation of warm core structure and relative vorticity profile of each cyclone by 3DVar run are found to be more closer to GFS analyses, when compared with the CTRL run.

To molecularly characterize hepatitis B virus (HBV) isolates from Kerala and to relate them to the clinical manifestation of infection.Sera and clinical data were collected from 91 patients diagnosed with chronic HBV infection and HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HBV from 44 HCC, 22 cirrhotic and 25 chronic hepatitis patients were genotyped by sequencing of the complete S region or by restriction fragment length polymorphism assays. The basic core promoter/precore region was sequenced. The complete surface DNA sequences were assembled and aligned manually, and then compared with the sequences of HBV of genotypes (A-J) from GenBank. The evolutionary history was inferred using the Neighbor-Joining method and the evolutionary distances computed using the Kimura 2-parameter method. Bootstrapping was performed using 1000 replicates. The TaqMan BS-1 probe was used to quantify HBV DNA at a lower detection limit of approximately 20 IU/mL. Continuous variables were compared using an independent Student's t test. The χ² test or Fisher's exact test was used to compare categorical variables. The differences were considered statistically significant at P0.05.Irrespective of disease status, the predominant genotype was A (72%); 95% belonging to subgenotype A1, followed by genotypes D (27%) and C (1%). HCC patients infected with subgenotype A1 were significantly younger than those infected with D. Mutation A1762T/G1764A was significantly associated with HCC in both genotypes A and D. Mutation G1862T was more frequent in subgenotype A1 (P0.0001), and in combination with A1762T/G1764A, it was significantly associated with HBV from HCC patients. Mutation C1766T/T1768A was significantly associated with genotype A (P = 0.05) and HCC (P = 0.03). The preS2 start codon M1T/I mutation was unique to genotype A strains (15.6%) from all disease groups and occurred at a higher frequency in isolates from HCC patients (P = 0.076). A higher frequency of preS deletion mutants (33.3%) was observed in genotype A from HCC compared with non-HCC patients, but did not reach statistical significance. The preS2:F22L mutation was found in genotypes A and D.Kerala is the first Indian state in which subgenotype A1 has been found to predominate in liver disease patients who developed HCC at a relatively young age.

The absorption coefficients of aqueous potassium permanganate (KMnO4) solution at 638.8 nm for various concentrations are determined using a simple experimental set up. The setup consists of He‐Ne laser source (Red, 638.8 nm, 10 mW), a glass jar in which the KMnO4 sample is taken, a mirror strip inclined at 45° to direct the laser beam towards the bottom of the glass jar, a traveling microscope to adjust the position of light dependent resistor (LDR) and a digital multimeter to measure the resistance.