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This paper provides an introduction to a new tool that is designed to provide operationally useful vulnerability information to National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecasting Offices (WFOs). The Brief Vulnerability Overview Tool (BVOT) is a shapefile containing local known, spatially specific, and weather-hazard-related vulnerabilities in a format that is easily integrated into the existing forecasting, warning, and decision support responsibilities and tasks of NWS WFO meteorologists. The methods for gathering vulnerability data and then building a BVOT for a WFO leverage and strengthen the relationships that NWS WFOs already have with their local emergency managers (EMs) and core partners to work together to identify operationally useful, local vulnerability knowledge. The BVOT is populated with discrete, known vulnerabilities to provide NWS meteorologists spatial situational awareness of those people, places, and things of greatest concern to their core partners. Crucially, the BVOT is a subsample of all potential vulnerabilities; its primary purpose is to make meteorologists aware of those weather-hazard-specific vulnerabilities that, as we posed to them, "keep them awake at night." Here, we describe the development of the BVOT as a social science-informed operational tool; how the BVOT methods have evolved and how it can be integrated into the culture of the NWS as a tool for building and maintaining relationships with partners; and how the BVOT is designed to be used and its impact on operational decision-making as observed in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Operational meteorologists in the National Weather Service often rely on everyday knowledge of vulnerabilities to shape their messaging to communities threatened by hazardous weather. This study seeks to test methods that will permit meteorologists to work with local communities and emergency managers to collect knowledge about local vulnerabilities so that they can be formally shared and integrated into everyday operations. The results of this research provide an illustrative pathway demonstrating how social science-informed research can be used to improve meteorological operations. Future work should investigate how other findings from social science can be translated into real, operational impacts. KEYWORDS: Social science; Operational forecasting; Communication/ decision-making; Decision support; Vulnerability, 1. BVOT: An inductive approach to actionable vulnerability decision support The mission of the U.S. NWS is to "provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts, warnings, and impact-based decision support [...]

Operational agencies face significant challenges related to the verification and evaluation of weather forecasts. These challenges were investigated in a series of online workshops and polls engaging operational personnel from six countries. Five key themes emerged: inadequate verification approaches for both existing and emerging products; incomplete and uncertain observations; difficulties in accurately capturing users' real-world experiences using simplified metrics; poor communication and understanding of forecasts and complex verification information; and institutional factors such as limited resources, evolving meteorologist roles, and concerns over reputational damage. We identify nearly 50 operationally relevant scientific questions and suggest calls to action. Addressing these needs includes designing forecast systems with verification as a central consideration, enhancing the availability of observations, and developing and adopting community software systems. Additionally, we propose the establishment of an international community comprising environmental and social science researchers, statisticians, verification practitioners, and users to provide sustained support for this collective endeavor. KEYWORDS: Uncertainty; Forecast verification/skill; Numerical weather prediction/ forecasting; Operational forecasting; Communications/ decision-making, 1. Introduction Weather prediction (Fig. 1) is a continuously evolving enterprise. The rapid expansion of various types of data (including satellite and other kinds), coupled with increasing computer capabilities, advances [...]

In 2010, McKinsey conducted confidential interviews with over 2,000 executives, revealing that only 28 per cent believed that 'the quality of strategic decisions in their companies was generally good, 60 [...]

How households make decisions, who influences decision making and how members bargain over resources and opportunities greatly affects the livelihood and wellbeing of members within a given household. This study sought to understand gender specific decisions and their influence on household technology choice, packaging and adoption of agricultural technologies. Growing Bananas with Trees and Livestock (GBTL) technology system was implemented by National Agricultural Research Organisation and Bioversity International in three districts of Central Uganda: Kiboga, Nakaseke and Ssembabule. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis (CA), typologies were created in which two distinct clusters of farming households were revealed. Using a bargaining model of technology adoption, three types of households were identified; male and female only, female only and male only headed households. For technology uptake, either a single component, two components or all components of a technology was adopted. Results indicated that Household size, age, land owned, labour and gender composition of the household positively influenced the adoption of the technology. Farm households were able to take up and adopt components of the technology that were equivalent to the available household resources. Technology choice and adoption was influenced by available land, labor and household objectives (food, income and nutrition security). Households' ability to avert the loss of production and/or assets was very varied and depended on household size. For non-business home expenses, decisions followed a gendered perspective where households with both male and female, had more participants involved in household decision making, households make decision jointly when it comes to purchases and sales. Banana plantations establishment and management was for the spouse. Livestock production was initiated and managed by the household heads. Individual decisions were influenced by age of the household head, livestock owner. Joint household's decision making was significant on purchases, sales of inputs and outputs, land ownership, and were influenced by household size and farm size. This study brings out important policy implications that in order to ensure widespread adoption of improved technologies, there should be equitable access to complementary inputs, especially land and labour for females. And technology packaging should take into consideration the gender specific decisions for sustainable agricultural development. Key words: Decision making, Technology choice, adoption, Coffee banana farming system, Gender, INTRODUCTION Households are comprised of individuals who do not share the same goals, they pool resources and share them for a common good. Decision-making is mediated by power and reflects [...]

Risk events can be frequently encountered in karst geological environments during excavation construction; thus, a suitable risk-control scheme is essential to reduce the negative impact of accidents. A decision-making approach based on the fuzzy VIKOR method is proposed to identify the optimal risk-control scheme, where a triangular fuzzy set is adopted to express the experts' judgements. A decision hierarchy is constructed based on four criteria and 12 sub-criteria, which are determined based on engineering experience and the construction environment. The developed approach was utilized to determine the optimal risk-control scheme to address risk events for excavation construction in karst regions. A countermeasure scheme, that is, pressure grouting with a two-phase liquid system, was implemented. The basic principles and steps of the implementation of the proposed scheme are presented. The applicability of the identified scheme was verified by the core recovery and modified number of blows using a standard penetration test. A flowchart of optimal scheme identification for geotechnical engineering practice is provided. Key words: Karst geological condition, optima risk control identification, decision-making approach, excavation construction, 1. Introduction With the rapid expansion of the urban scale and increasing population in China, numerous issues related to the rapid development of urban cities have arisen, such as traffic [...]

Jordan reported [approximately equal to] 1.1 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and [approximately equal to] 12,500 deaths by the end of December 2021 (1), accounting for [approximately equal to] 6.0% of [...]

Purpose Some hospitals in the United States (US) use intensive care 20 times more than others. Since intensive care is lifesaving for some but potentially harmful for others, there is a need to understand factors that influence how intensive care unit (ICU) admission decisions are made. Methods A qualitative analysis of eight US hospitals was conducted with semi-structured, one-on-one interviews supplemented by site visits and clinical observations. Results A total of 87 participants (24 nurses, 52 physicians, and 11 other staff) were interviewed, and 40 h were spent observing ICU operations across the eight hospitals. Four hospital-level factors were identified that influenced ICU admission decision-making. First, availability of intermediate care led to reallocation of patients who might otherwise be sent to an ICU. Second, participants stressed the importance of ICU nurse availability as a key modifier of ICU capacity. Patients cared for by experienced general care physicians and nurses were less likely to receive ICU care. Third, smaller or rural hospitals opted for longer emergency department patient-stays over ICU admission to expedite interhospital transfer of critically ill patients. Fourth, lack of clarity in ICU admission policies led clinicians to feel pressured to use ICU care for patients who might otherwise not have received it. Conclusion Health care systems should evaluate their use of ICU care and establish institutional patterns that ensure ICU admission decisions are patient-centered but also account for resources and constraints particular to each hospital., Author(s): Thomas S. Valley [sup.1] [sup.2] [sup.3] [sup.4], Amanda Schutz [sup.1], Jacquelyn Miller [sup.1], Lewis Miles [sup.5], Kyra Lipman [sup.6], Tammy L. Eaton [sup.2] [sup.7] [sup.8], Harish Kinni [sup.9] [sup.10], [...]

Stormwater infrastructure system (SWIS) is a main component of a municipal infrastructure system that safely passes excess runoff, controls floods, and manages pollutant discharges. A comprehensive literature review has revealed that stormwater infrastructure level of service (LOS) assessment, an important step in asset management, has been abstractly defined. LOS assists in infrastructure performance assessment as well as investment decision-making. This research proposes a methodological framework for LOS assessment of SWIS and adopts the proposed method in asset management decision-making. A hierarchical framework was developed to assess the LOS by using key performance indicators. The proposed framework was demonstrated in a case study for a municipality in Southwestern ON. To improve the LOS of sub-catchments with low LOS, low-impact development (LID) controls were proposed. The cost-benefit analysis revealed that an investment of $110 950 in LIDs could increase the LOS by 26.4% (from medium to good). Key words: asset management, level of service, low-impact development, stormwater infrastructure, Introduction Stormwater infrastructure systems (SWISs) are important components of a municipal infrastructure that remove the rainfall in excess of the infiltration through gutters, catch basins/inlets, sewers, and sometimes pump systems. [...]

Using a simulated negotiation, we test how negotiators' decision frames (gain vs loss) influence their social utilities. Recognizing that utilities are shaped by both economic and social concerns, we measure four attributes of negotiator satisfaction: satisfaction with own economic outcomes, satisfaction with self, other's satisfaction with outcome, and other's willingness to negotiate in the future. Drawing on Prospect Theory and modifications of Prospect Theory, we tested whether decision frames showed the same relationship between outcomes and satisfaction on all measures of satisfaction, or whether this relationship was context-sensitive. Our first set of models, which used individual outcomes and outcome differences to predict satisfaction, demonstrated that the relationship between decision frames and satisfaction is context sensitive. Across the four attributes of satisfaction, gain-framed negotiators were more sensitive to equity and advantageous inequity than loss-framed negotiators whereas loss-framed negotiators were more sensitive to disadvantageous inequity than gain-framed negotiators. Our second set of models, which predicted satisfaction from individual and joint outcomes showed that, across all attributes of satisfaction, loss-framed negotiators were more sensitive to changes in joint outcomes than gain-framed negotiators. Finally, we showed that negotiators maximized their outcomes when they engaged in moderate levels of competition (offers, positional arguments). For gain-framed negotiators, an improvement in outcomes was associated with a reduction in competitiveness whereas for loss-framed negotiators an improvement in outcomes was associated with an increase in competitiveness., Author(s): Mara Olekalns [sup.1] , Philip L. Smith [sup.2] Author Affiliations: (1) https://ror.org/01ej9dk98, grid.1008.9, 0000 0001 2179 088X, Melbourne Business School, The University of Melbourne, , 200 Leicester St, 3053, [...]

Curriculum-based measurement (CBM) represents a critical strategy for data-based decisionmaking within educational settings. Visual analysis is frequently used to analyze CBM data; thus, CBM vendors often automatically generate graphs based on student data to facilitate analysis. Differences in graph formatting are apparent across CBM vendors, and currently, the extent to which these differences may influence rater interpretation of data is unknown. As such, the current study sought to evaluate whether there were differences in rater evaluation of presence and magnitude of an intervention effect when identical data were plotted on graphs of four CBM vendors: AIMSweb, FastBridge Learning, easyCBM, and DIBELS Next. Results of the study indicated that visual analysts rated. Results of the study found that probability of identifying the presence of a treatment effect was similar across vendors. However, differences emerged with respect to ratings of magnitude of effect, with raters indicating the greatest magnitude of intervention effect for easyCBM and DIBELS Next graphs. As data graphs generated by CBM vendors may be utilized by school personnel to make decisions regarding the continuation, discontinuation, or alteration of intervention procedures, the results of the study indicate the need for increased consideration in the manner in which data are presented visually such that accurate decisions are made regarding student progress and response to intervention., Author(s): Evan H. Dart [sup.1], Ethan R. Van Norman [sup.2], David A. Klingbeil [sup.3], Keith C. Radley [sup.4] Author Affiliations: (1) grid.170693.a, 0000 0001 2353 285X, University of South Florida, [...]

In this study we analyze a recent controversy within the biomedical world, concerning the evaluation of safety of certain vaccines. This specific struggle took place among experts: the Danish epidemiologist Peter Gøtzsche on one side and a respected scientific institution, the Cochrane, on the other. However, given its relevance, the consequences of such a conflict invest a much larger spectrum of actors, last but not least the public itself. Our work is aimed at dissecting a specific aspect happening in this complex scenario: strategy. In other words, we want to highlight the value and the impact of strategic decisions when complex issues, as those analyzed, are at stake. In order to address this we have decided to adopt a game-theoretic approach. Our work will be structured as it follows. First, we will introduce the controversy and the two main actors: Peter Gøtzsche and the Cochrane. Second, we will explain why this controversy is important and its value beyond its academic relevance. Third, we will frame the controversy as a game and will provide several models representing different situations, also furnishing an analysis of these distinct scenarios. In the end we will argue why such game-theoretic approach can be useful in dissecting this type of issues., Author(s): F. Boem [sup.1], S. Bonzio [sup.1], B. Osimani [sup.2], A. Sacco [sup.3] Author Affiliations: (1) grid.7605.4, 0000 0001 2336 6580, Università degli Studi di Torino, , Turin, Italy (2) [...]

Byline: Priyank. Yadav, Adam. Bobrowski, Ihtisham. Ahmad, Jin. Kim, Margarita. Chancy, Dheidan. Alshammari, Mandy. Rickard, Armando. Lorenzo, Darius. Bagli, Michael. Chua Introduction: Congenital penile curvature (PC), often concomitant with hypospadias, [...]

As economic activities came to a standstill during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Philippines, like many economies across the globe, experienced rising inflation, currency depreciation and fluctuating capital markets. To manage these variables and stabilize the macroeconomy, the central bank resorted to monetary tightening. In the Philippines, a key mechanism that contributes to this stabilizing effect rests on remittances that have been cushioning the economy from the effects of volatilities and uncertainties in the global economy. During economic downturns and reduced capital flows, remittances provide support not only to recipient households but also to the country's financial sector. Using time series analysis, we estimate the response of remittance inflows on impulses from selected macroeconomic variables, namely interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate. A common characteristic shared by the selected indicators is their influence on recipient households' consumption-related decisionmaking process. These findings warrant the need to redesign major institutional policies to manage remittances in light of their anticipated feedback effect on the economy. Keywords: Exchange rate, inflation, interest rate, remittances, the Philippines., 1. Introduction Asymmetries in global labour markets have compelled labour movement across economies (Katz and Stark 1987). Driven by business cycles, socio-economic inequalities, political rationales, environmental crises, demographic changes such [...]

In recent decades, a growing number of police services in Canada have stressed commitments to protecting vulnerable communities from violence and intimidation and by combating hate crime. In 2020, the number of hate crimes reported to police in Canada increased by 37% to the highest number ever recorded. While social science research in several national contexts has examined the policing of hate crime, few studies have examined how police investigate hate crimes in Canada. This paper examines the investigative process and police decision-making with respect to racially motivated and anti-Black hate crimes reported in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). This paper argues that while police claim that the circumstances of a given incident determines how police respond and whether a case is ultimately solved, in fact police decision making and particularly the way police conceive of racism and hate, profoundly shapes investigative processes and outcomes. Au cours des dernieres decennies, un nombre croissant de services de police au Canada ont souligne leur engagement a proteger les communautes vulnerables contre la violence et l'intimidation et en luttant contre les crimes haineux. En 2020, le nombre de crimes haineux signales a la police au Canada a augmente de 37 pour cent pour atteindre le nombre le plus eleve jamais enregistre. Bien que la recherche en sciences sociales dans plusieurs contextes nationaux ait examine le maintien de l'ordre en matiere de crimes haineux, peu d'etudes ont examine comment la police enquete sur les crimes haineux au Canada. Le present document examine le processus d'enquete et le processus decisionnel de la police en ce qui concerne les crimes haineux a caractere racial et anti-Noir signales dans la region du Grand Toronto. Nous soutenons que, bien que la police pretende que les circonstances d'un incident donne determinent la facon dont elle intervient et si une affaire est finalement resolue, en realite, la prise de decision de la police, et en particulier la facon dont elle concoit le racisme et la haine, faconne profondement les processus d'enquete et les resultats., INTRODUCTION In 2020, the number of police-reported hate crimes rose by 37%, increasing from 1951 reported incidents in 2019, to 2669 the following year. This marked the single highest number [...]

The high-altitude landscape of western Tibet is one of the most extreme environments in which humans have managed to introduce crop cultivation. To date, only sparse palaeoeconomic data have been reported from this region. The authors present archaeobotanical evidence from five sites (dating from the late first millennium BC and the early first millennium AD) located in the cold-arid landscape of western Tibet. The data indicate that barley was widely grown in this region by c. 400 BC but probably fulfilled differing roles within local ecological constraints on cultivation. Additionally, larger sites are characterised by more diverse crop assemblages than smaller sites, suggesting a role for social diversity in the development of high-altitude agriculture. Keywords: Tibet, Himalayas, prehistoric archaeology, archaeobotany, high altitude, palaeoeconomy, Introduction The origin and development of high-altitude agriculture on the Tibetan Plateau has attracted considerable interest during the last decade (e.g. Fu 2001; d'Alpoim Guedes et al. 2014; Chen et [...]

Automated data preparation saves time and ensures decision-making security The new Uster Fabriq Assistant is a central platform for automated processing, analyzing, and visualizing quality data from Uster fabric inspection [...]

In case of decision making problems, identification of nonlinear systems is an important issue. Identification of nonlinear systems using a multilayer perceptron (MLP) trained with back propagation becomes much complex with an increase in number of input data, number of layers, number of nodes, and number of iterations in computation. In this paper, an attempt has been made to use fuzzy MLP and its learning algorithm for identification of nonlinear system. The fuzzy MLP and its training algorithm which allows to accelerate a process of training, which exceeds in comparison with classical MLP is proposed. Results show a sharp reduction in search for optimal parameters of a neuro fuzzy model as compared to the classical MLP. A training performance comparison has been carried out between MLP and the proposed fuzzy-MLP model. The time and space complexities of the algorithms have been analyzed. It is observed that the number of epochs has sharply reduced and performance increased compared with classical MLP., CONTENTS 1. Introduction 43 2. The MLP Architecture 44 3. Fuzzy MLP for Identification of Nonlinear Systems 45 4. Experimental Details and Results 48 5. Conclusion 48 References 50 1. [...]

Neighbourhood groups are a feature of municipal politics across Canada yet are understudied in mid-sized cities. They are often portrayed as a mechanism for allowing residents to be more engaged in decisions affecting their neighbourhoods and to improve municipal decisions by incorporating the lived experience of municipal residents into that decision-making. It is therefore important to examine the formation of neighbourhood groups, whether they influence municipal decisions, and whether they are representative of their neighbourhoods. This article examines these issues through a case study of four neighbourhood groups in Windsor, Ontario. Using interview data as well as analysis of primary and secondary sources, it examines the top-down and grassroots forces that shaped these groups and their involvement in council decisions relating to vacant buildings in the city. The conclusions reached are that there were clear limits to the influence that they exerted on municipal decision-making. These groups did represent the interests of their communities and, when provided with external resources to develop their institutional capacity, they did help promote municipal policy change. This was, however, incremental change at the margins of the policy process. Keywords: neighbourhood groups, residents participation and municipal decision-making, Windsor (Ontario) Les groupes communautaires de quartier, qui sont partout au Canada, sont une caractéristique de la politique municipale Ils sont souvent décrits comme un mécanisme permettant aux résidents de s'impliquer davantage dans les décisions affectant leurs quartiers et d'améliorer les décisions municipales en intégrant l'expérience vécue des résidents dans cette prise de décision. Il est donc important d'examiner la formation des groupes communautaires de quartier, leur capacité à façonner les politiques municipales et la mesure dans laquelle ils sont représentatifs de leur quartier. Cet article examine ces questions par le biais d'une étude de cas de quatre groupes communautaires de quartier à Windsor (Ontario). ?€ l'aide des données d'entrevues ainsi que de l'analyse de sources primaires et secondaires, l'on examine les forces descendantes, les mouvements de base qui ont façonné ces groupes, et leur implication dans les décisions du conseil relatives aux bâtiments vacants dans la ville. Les conclusions tirées montrent qu'il y avait des limites claires à l'influence qu'ils exerçaient sur la prise de décision municipale. Néanmoins, ces groupes ont représenté les intérêts de leurs communautés et lorsqu'ils ont reçu des ressources pour développer leur capacité institutionnelle, ils ont contribué à promouvoir un changement de politique municipale bénéfique pour les quatre quartiers. Mots-clés : groupes communautaires de quartier, implication des résidents et décisions municipale, Windsor (Ontario), Introduction Neighbourhood groups are a feature of municipal politics in Canada. They exist in various forms in different cities, often with different names, different levels of institutional support, and different [...]