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Identifying mechanisms driving pathogen persistence is a vital component of wildlife disease ecology and control. Asymptomatic, chronically infected individuals are an oft-cited potential reservoir of infection, but demonstrations of the importance of chronic shedding to pathogen persistence at the population-level remain scarce. Studying chronic shedding using commonly collected disease data is hampered by numerous challenges, including short-term surveillance that focuses on single epidemics and acutely ill individuals, the subtle dynamical influence of chronic shedding relative to more obvious epidemic drivers, and poor ability to differentiate between the effects of population prevalence of chronic shedding vs. intensity and duration of chronic shedding in individuals. We use chronic shedding of Leptospira interrogans serovar Pomona in California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) as a case study to illustrate how these challenges can be addressed. Using leptospirosis-induced strands as a measure of disease incidence, we fit models with and without chronic shedding, and with different seasonal drivers, to determine the time-scale over which chronic shedding is detectable and the interactions between chronic shedding and seasonal drivers needed to explain persistence and outbreak patterns. Chronic shedding can enable persistence of L. interrogans within the sea lion population. However, the importance of chronic shedding was only apparent when surveillance data included at least two outbreaks and the intervening inter-epidemic trough during which fadeout of transmission was most likely. Seasonal transmission, as opposed to seasonal recruitment of susceptibles, was the dominant driver of seasonality in this system, and both seasonal factors had limited impact on long-term pathogen persistence. We show that the temporal extent of surveillance data can have a dramatic impact on inferences about population processes, where the failure to identify both short- and long-term ecological drivers can have cascading impacts on understanding higher order ecological phenomena, such as pathogen persistence.

BackgroundOrganochlorine contaminants (OCs), like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs), are widespread marine pollutants resulting from massive historical use and environmental persistence. Exposure to and health effects of these OCs in the marine environment may be examined by studying California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), which are long lived, apex predators capable of accumulating OCs.MethodsWe evaluated PCB and DDT levels in 310 sea lions sampled between 1992 and 2007: 204 individuals stranded along the coast of central California, 60 healthy males from Washington State, and 46 healthy females from southern California. Lipid-normalized contaminant concentrations were analyzed using general linear models and logistic regression to ascertain temporal trends; differences between stranded and healthy sea lions; and association of organochlorines with sex, age, and presence of cancer or fatal infectious disease.ResultsConcentrations of the contaminants in stranded adults decreased over time in the study period (adjusted for sex, as adult males had higher mean blubber concentrations than adult females and juveniles). Cancer was almost eight and six times more likely in animals with higher summed PCBs and DDTs, compared to those with lower levels (95% CI 5.55-10.51 and 4.54-7.99, respectively). Fatal infectious diseases were similarly seven and five times more likely in animals with higher contaminant burdens (95% CI 4.20-10.89 and 3.27-7.86, respectively). Mean contaminant loads were significantly higher in stranded sea lions than in healthy live captured animals (p

This report reviews the state of the California Current System (CCS) between winter 2012 and spring 2013, and includes observations from Washington State to Baja California. During 2012, large-scale climate modes indicated the CCS remained in a cool, productive phase present since 2007. The upwelling season was delayed north of 42°N, but regions to the south, especially 33° to 36°N, experienced average to above average upwelling that persisted throughout the summer. Contrary to the indication of high production suggested by the climate indices, chlorophyll observed from surveys and remote sensing was below average along much of the coast. As well, some members of the forage assemblages along the coast experienced low abundances in 2012 surveys. Specifically, the concentrations of all lifestages observed directly or from egg densities of Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax, and northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, were less than previous years’ survey estimates. However, 2013 surveys and observations indicate an increase in abundance of northern anchovy. During winter 2011/2012, the increased presence of northern copepod species off northern California was consistent with stronger southward transport. Krill and small-fraction zooplankton abundances, where examined, were generally above average. North of 42°N, salps returned to typical abundances in 2012 after greater observed concentrations in 2010 and 2011. In contrast, salp abundance off central and southern California increased after a period of southward transport during winter 2011/2012. Reproductive success of piscivorous Brandt’s cormorant, Phalacrocorax penicillatus, was reduced while planktivorous Cassin’s auklet, Ptychoramphus aleuticus was elevated. Differences between the productivity of these two seabirds may be related to the available forage assemblage observed in the surveys. California sea lion pups from San Miguel Island were undernourished resulting in a pup mortality event perhaps in response to changes in forage availability. Limited biological data were available for spring 2013, but strong winter upwelling coastwide indicated an early spring transition, with the strong upwelling persisting into early summer.

Our earlier family history studies of individuals with autism found a high incidence of major affective disorder, especially bipolar disorder, and unusual talents or intellectual abilities among family members. We now describe a subgroup of such families, selected from a large clinical experience, illustrating specific features of major affective disorder, special talents or intellectual ability, and familial patterns of trait transmission, with the additional feature of oculocutaneous albinism in some cases. These observations, suggesting parent-of-origin and gain-of-function effects, considered together with recent genetic findings in the literature, suggest a genetic hypothesis possibly unifying disparate observations found in families of individuals with autism. (Contains 1 table and 1 figure.)