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IntroductionCoronary artery calcium (CAC) scans contain useful information beyond the Agatston CAC score that is not currently reported. We recently reported that artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled cardiac chambers volumetry in CAC scans (AI-CAC™) predicted incident atrial fibrillation in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). In this study, we investigated the performance of AI-CAC cardiac chambers for prediction of incident heart failure (HF).MethodsWe applied AI-CAC to 5750 CAC scans of asymptomatic individuals (52% female, White 40%, Black 26%, Hispanic 22% Chinese 12%) free of known cardiovascular disease at the MESA baseline examination (2000-2002). We used the 15-year outcomes data and compared the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) of AI-CAC volumetry versus NT-proBNP, Agatston score, and 9 known clinical risk factors (age, gender, diabetes, current smoking, hypertension medication, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, LDL, HDL for predicting incident HF over 15 years.ResultsOver 15 years of follow-up, 256 HF events accrued. The time-dependent AUC [95% CI] at 15 years for predicting HF with AI-CAC all chambers volumetry (0.86 [0.82,0.91]) was significantly higher than NT-proBNP (0.74 [0.69, 0.77]) and Agatston score (0.71 [0.68, 0.78]) (p ​

IntroductionWe investigated the associations of high-sensitivity cardiac Troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels with risk of developing clinical peripheral artery disease (PAD) or a low ankle-brachial index (ABI).MethodsHs-cTnT and NT-proBNP were measured in 6692 and 5458 participants respectively without baseline PAD between 2000 and 2002 in the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. A significant number also had repeat biomarker measurement between 2004 and 2005. Incident clinical PAD was ascertained through 2017. Incident low ABI, defined as ABI 0.9 at baseline and at least one follow-up ABI measurement 3-10 years later. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression modeling were used to determine the association of these biomarkers with clinical PAD and low ABI, respectively.ResultsOverall, 121 clinical PAD and 118 low ABI events occurred. Adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, each log unit increment in hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP was associated with a 30% (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 1.6) and 50% (HR) 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 1.8) higher risk of clinical PAD respectively. No significant associations were observed for incident low ABI. Change in these biomarkers was not associated with either of the PAD outcomes.ConclusionsNT-proBNP and hs-cTnT are independently associated with the development of clinical PAD. Further study should determine whether these biomarkers can help to better identify those at higher risk for PAD.

BackgroundElevated cardiac troponin levels in blood are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases and mortality. Cardiac troponin levels are heritable, but their genetic architecture remains elusive.MethodsWe conducted a transethnic genome-wide association analysis on high-sensitivity cTnT (cardiac troponin T; hs-cTnT) and high-sensitivity cTnI (cardiac troponin I; hs-cTnI) levels in 24 617 and 14 336 participants free of coronary heart disease and heart failure from 6 population-based cohorts, followed by a series of bioinformatic analyses to decipher the genetic architecture of hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI.ResultsWe identified 4 genome-wide significant loci for hs-cTnT including a novel locus rs3737882 in PPFIA4 and 3 previously reported loci at NCOA2, TRAM1, and BCL2. One known locus at VCL was replicated for hs-cTnI. One copy of C allele for rs3737882 was associated with a 6% increase in hs-cTnT levels (minor allele frequency, 0.18; P=2.80×10-9). We observed pleiotropic loci located at BAG3 and ANO5. The proportions of variances explained by single-nucleotide polymorphisms were 10.15% and 7.74% for hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI, respectively. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms were colocalized with BCL2 expression in heart tissues and hs-cTnT and with ANO5 expression in artery, heart tissues, and whole blood and both troponins. Mendelian randomization analyses showed that genetically increased hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI levels were associated with higher odds of atrial fibrillation (odds ratio, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.25-1.54] for hs-cTnT and 1.21 [95% CI, 1.06-1.37] for hs-cTnI).ConclusionsWe identified a novel genetic locus associated with hs-cTnT in a multiethnic population and found that genetically regulated troponin levels were associated with atrial fibrillation.

AimsThe association of subclinical atherosclerotic disease in the coronary arteries and thoracic aorta with incident peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is unknown. We investigated the association between coronary artery calcium score (CACs) and thoracic aortic calcium score (TACs) with incident clinical and subclinical PAD.Methods and resultsThe Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) recruited 6814 men and women aged 45-84 from four ethnic groups who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease at enrolment. Coronary artery calcium score and thoracic aortic calcium score were measured from computed tomography scans. Participants with a baseline ankle-brachial index (ABI) ≤0.90 or >1.4 were excluded. Abnormal ABI was defined as ABI ≤0.9 or >1.4 at follow-up exam. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to test the associations between baseline CACs and TACs with incident abnormal ABI and clinical PAD, respectively. A total of 6409 participants (female: 52.8%) with a mean age of 61 years were analysed. Over a median follow-up of 16.7 years, 91 participants developed clinical PAD. In multivariable analysis, each unit increase in log (CACS + 1) and log (TACs + 1) were associated with 23% and 13% (P < 0.01for both) higher risk of incident clinical PAD, respectively. In 5725 (female: 52.6%) participants with an available follow-up ABI over median 9.2 years, each 1-unit increase in log (CACs + 1) and log (TACs + 1) were independently associated with 1.15-fold and 1.07-fold (P < 0.01for both) higher odds of incident abnormal ABI, respectively.ConclusionHigher baseline CACs and TACs predict abnormal ABI and clinical PAD independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and baseline ABI.

Background Current strategies for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment focus on 10-year or longer timeframes. Shorter-term CVD risk is also clinically relevant, particularly for high-risk occupations, but is under-investigated. Methods and Results We pooled data from participants in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study), MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), and DHS (Dallas Heart Study), free from CVD at baseline (N=16 581). Measurements included N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (>100 pg/mL prospectively defined as abnormal); high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (abnormal >5 ng/L); high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (abnormal >3 mg/L); left ventricular hypertrophy by ECG (abnormal if present); carotid intima-media thickness, and plaque (abnormal >75th percentile for age and sex or presence of plaque); and coronary artery calcium (abnormal >10 Agatston U). Each abnormal test result except left ventricular hypertrophy by ECG was independently associated with increased 3-year risk of global CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, incident heart failure, or atrial fibrillation), even after adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors and the other test results. When a simple integer score counting the number of abnormal tests was used, 3-year multivariable-adjusted global CVD risk was increased among participants with integer scores of 1, 2, 3, and 4, by ≈2-, 3-, 4.5- and 8-fold, respectively, when compared with those with a score of 0. Qualitatively similar results were obtained for atherosclerotic CVD (fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke). Conclusions A strategy incorporating multiple biomarkers and atherosclerosis imaging improved assessment of 3-year global and atherosclerotic CVD risk compared with a standard approach using traditional risk factors.

BackgroundHigh-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) is individually associated with incident hypertension (HTN) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. We hypothesize that the increases in hs-cTnT with increases in blood pressure will be related to higher incidence of CVD.MethodsThe Cardiovascular Health Study is a longitudinal cohort of older adults. Those with hs-cTnT data and CVD risk factors at baseline and follow-up (2-3 years later) were stratified based on systolic blood pressure (SBP; optimal:

Background We tested associations of cardiac biomarkers of myocardial stretch, injury, inflammation, and fibrosis with the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in a prospective study of chronic kidney disease patients. Methods and Results The study sample was 3053 participants with chronic kidney disease in the multicenter CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) study who were not identified as having AF at baseline. Cardiac biomarkers, measured at baseline, were NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), high-sensitivity troponin T, galectin-3, growth differentiation factor-15, and soluble ST-2. Incident AF ("AF event") was defined as a hospitalization for AF. During a median follow-up of 8 years, 279 (9%) participants developed a new AF event. In adjusted models, higher baseline log-transformed NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) was associated with incident AF (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per SD higher concentration: 2.11; 95% CI, 1.75, 2.55), as was log-high-sensitivity troponin T (HR 1.42; 95% CI, 1.20, 1.68). These associations showed a dose-response relationship in categorical analyses. Although log-soluble ST-2 was associated with AF risk in continuous models (HR per SD higher concentration 1.35; 95% CI, 1.16, 1.58), this association was not consistent in categorical analyses. Log-galectin-3 (HR 1.05; 95% CI, 0.91, 1.22) and log-growth differentiation factor-15 (HR 1.16; 95% CI, 0.96, 1.40) were not significantly associated with incident AF. Conclusions We found strong associations between higher NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) and high-sensitivity troponin T concentrations, and the risk of incident AF in a large cohort of participants with chronic kidney disease. Increased atrial myocardial stretch and myocardial cell injury may be implicated in the high burden of AF in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Background Blacks harbor more cardiovascular risk factors than whites, but experience less atrial fibrillation ( AF ). Conversely, whites may have a lower risk of heart failure ( CHF ). N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ( NT -pro BNP) levels are higher in whites, predict incident AF , and have diuretic effects in the setting of increased ventricular diastolic pressures, potentially providing a unifying explanation for these racial differences. Methods and Results We used data from the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) to determine the degree to which baseline NT -pro BNP levels mediate the relationships between race and incident AF and CHF by comparing beta estimates between models with and without NT -pro BNP . The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study was used to assess reproducibility. Among 4731 CHS (770 black) and 12 418 ARIC (3091 black) participants, there were 1277 and 1253 incident AF events, respectively. Whites had higher baseline NT -pro BNP ( CHS : 40% higher than blacks; 95% CI , 29-53; ARIC : 39% higher; 95% CI , 33-46) and had a greater risk of incident AF compared with blacks ( CHS : adjusted hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI , 1.31-1.93; ARIC : hazard ratio, 1.93; 95% CI , 1.57-2.27). NT -pro BNP levels explained a significant proportion of the racial difference in AF risk ( CHS : 36.2%; 95% CI , 23.2-69.2%; ARIC : 24.6%; 95% CI , 14.8-39.6%). Contrary to our hypothesis, given an increased risk of CHF among whites in CHS (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI , 1.05-1.47) and the absence of a significant association between race and CHF in ARIC (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI , 0.94-1.23), CHF -related mediation analyses were not performed. Conclusions A substantial portion of the relationship between race and AF was statistically explained by baseline NT -pro BNP levels. No consistent relationship between race and CHF was observed.

Background Blacks harbor more cardiovascular risk factors than whites, but experience less atrial fibrillation ( AF ). Conversely, whites may have a lower risk of heart failure ( CHF ). N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ( NT -pro BNP) levels are higher in whites, predict incident AF , and have diuretic effects in the setting of increased ventricular diastolic pressures, potentially providing a unifying explanation for these racial differences. Methods and Results We used data from the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) to determine the degree to which baseline NT -pro BNP levels mediate the relationships between race and incident AF and CHF by comparing beta estimates between models with and without NT -pro BNP . The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study was used to assess reproducibility. Among 4731 CHS (770 black) and 12 418 ARIC (3091 black) participants, there were 1277 and 1253 incident AF events, respectively. Whites had higher baseline NT -pro BNP ( CHS : 40% higher than blacks; 95% CI , 29-53; ARIC : 39% higher; 95% CI , 33-46) and had a greater risk of incident AF compared with blacks ( CHS : adjusted hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI , 1.31-1.93; ARIC : hazard ratio, 1.93; 95% CI , 1.57-2.27). NT -pro BNP levels explained a significant proportion of the racial difference in AF risk ( CHS : 36.2%; 95% CI , 23.2-69.2%; ARIC : 24.6%; 95% CI , 14.8-39.6%). Contrary to our hypothesis, given an increased risk of CHF among whites in CHS (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI , 1.05-1.47) and the absence of a significant association between race and CHF in ARIC (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI , 0.94-1.23), CHF -related mediation analyses were not performed. Conclusions A substantial portion of the relationship between race and AF was statistically explained by baseline NT -pro BNP levels. No consistent relationship between race and CHF was observed.

ContextSex hormones may influence sex differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD). N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), a predictor of CVD, is higher in women than men, which may relate to sex hormones.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether total testosterone (T), bioavailable T, free T, estradiol, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), and SHBG are associated with NT-proBNP.DesignCohort study.ParticipantsCross-sectional sample included 2371 postmenopausal women and 2688 men free of CVD, of which 2041 women and 2348 men were included longitudinally.Main outcome measuresNT-proBNP at baseline (2000 to 2002) and one or more repeat NT-proBNPs (through 2012). Analyses adjusted for CVD risk factors.ResultsWomen had higher NT-proBNP than men (median 79.9 vs 38.5 pg/mL). Cross-sectionally, higher bioavailable T, free T, DHEA, and lower SHBG levels were independently associated with lower NT-proBNP among both women and men (all P < 0.05). Higher total T in women and estradiol in men were also associated with lower NT-proBNP (both P < 0.05). Longitudinally, in women, higher total T, bioavailable T, free T, DHEA, and lower estradiol and SHBG were associated with greater 10-year increase in NT-proBNP (all P < 0.05). In men, higher free T and estradiol were associated with greater NT-proBNP increase (both P < 0.05).ConclusionsA more androgenic sex hormone pattern was inversely associated with NT-proBNP cross-sectionally and may contribute to sex differences in NT-proBNP. Longitudinally, a more androgenic sex hormone pattern was associated with greater increase in NT-proBNP in women, which may reflect a mechanism for CVD risk after menopause.