Search

Additional file 1.

Data from the rapid mortality surveillance system in 19 major Italian cities were used to carry out a timely assessment of the health impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. By 18 April, a + 45% excess in mortality was observed, with a higher impact in the north of the country (+ 76%). The excess was greatest among men, with an increasing trend by age. Surveillance data can be used to evaluate the lockdown and re-opening phases.

BACKGROUND: this paper is based upon work from COST Action ICSHNet. Industrial contaminated sites (ICSs) are of high concern since industrial plants have produced widespread contamination potentially affecting the health of local population OBJECTIVES: to assess the types of epidemiological designs applied in studies of health effects related to ICSs according to time periods, type of ICS, and geography. METHODS: a literature search was conducted in Medline (OVID) through June 30th, 2018, using MeSH and customized terms, and no restrictions on publication year or language. We included all studies throughout the world where a potential contamination of industrial origin occurred, an epidemiological approach (including biomonitoring, HBM) was applied, and health outcomes or exposure biomarkers among residents were investigated. Data on publication year, geographical localization and ICS characterization, study design (systematic reviews, cohort, case-control, temporal changes, cross-sectional, ecological, descriptive - area-level, case-series, narrative reviews, and HBM), and health outcomes were extracted from the abstracts. To check the sensitivity of the main search strategy, a case-study on Italy was conducted applying an ad-hoc search. RESULTS: from a literature search capturing 5,485 studies, 655 studies on resident populations were identified. The review includes more than 376 different ICSs, 86% from Europe, North America, and Asia combined, mostly dealing with nuclear sites and mining industries, waste and petrochemical activities. Most of the studies were descriptive (32.5%), cross-sectional (16.3%), or narrative review (14.8%), while analytical studies - case-control and cohort studies (9.6% and 8.4%, respectively) - were rarer; HBM were only 6.9%. A total of 235 studies, conducted mostly in Asia (34.5%), Europe (25.5%), and North America (22.3%), included children. The most frequently studied outcome was cancer (33.7%), followed by respiratory diseases (11.4%), and reproductive health (11.4%). The ad-hoc strategy greatly increased the number of detected papers (+122%). CONCLUSIONS: future research should adopt the most valid and suitable study design, according to the area-specific social and environmental context, also in areas of the world which are less studied, but with very high environmental worries of the resident population suffering the industrial contamination. Involvement of local experts on ICSs and local inventories are recommended to improve the coverage of the present inventory.

Background: The association between heat and daily mortality and its temporal variation are well known. However, few studies have analyzed the inter-annual variations in both the risk estimates and impacts of heat The aim is to estimate inter-annual variations in the effect of heat for a fixed temperature range, on mortality in 9 European cities included in the PHASE (Public Health Adaptation Strategies to Extreme weather events) project for the period 1990-2010. The second aim is to evaluate overall summer effects and heat-attributable deaths for each year included in the study period, considering the entire air temperature range (both mild and extreme temperatures). Methods: A city-specific daily time-series analysis was performed, using a generalized additive Poisson regression model, restricted to the warm season (April-September). To study the temporal variation for a fixed air temperature range, a Bayesian Change Point analysis was applied to the relative risks of mortality for a 2 degrees C increase over the 90th percentile of the city-specific distribution. The number of heat attributable deaths in each summer were also calculated for mild (reference to 95th percentile) and extreme heat (95th percentile to maximum value). Results: A decline in the effects of heat over time was observed in Athens and Rome when considering a fixed interval, while an increase in effects was observed in Helsinki. The greatest impact of heat in terms of attributable deaths was observed in the Mediterranean cities (Athens, Barcelona and Rome) for extreme air temperatures. In the other cities the impact was mostly related to extreme years with 2003 as a record breaking year in Paris (+ 1900 deaths) and London (+ 1200 deaths). Conclusions: Monitoring the impact of heat over time is important to identify changes in population vulnerability and evaluate adaptation measures.

The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature-mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996-2002 and 2004-2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.