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The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a key source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnection patterns. These MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data is used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the northern hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Comparisons are made with ENSO-modulated interannual variability, showing considerable differences to the observed decadal scale variability. Changes are seen in both the circulation response and consequently in temperature and precipitation. In particular, from 1997 cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States, due to MJO convection over the western Pacific, which were not present 20 years previously.

CMIP6 model sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal extrema averaged over 1981–2010 are assessed against the World Ocean Atlas (WOA18) observational climatology. We propose a mask to identify and exclude regions of large differences between three commonly used climatologies (WOA18, WOCE-Argo Global Hydrographic climatology (WAGHC) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST)). The biases in SST seasonal extrema are largely consistent with the annual mean SST biases. However, the amplitude and spatial pattern of SST bias vary seasonally in the 20 CMIP6 models assessed. Large seasonal variations in the SST bias occur in eastern boundary upwelling regions, polar regions, the North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Atlantic. These results demonstrate the importance of evaluating model performance not simply against annual mean properties. Models with greater vertical resolution in their ocean component typically demonstrate better representation of SST extrema, particularly seasonal maximum SST. No significant relationship of SST seasonal extrema with horizontal ocean model resolution is found.

Previous work has shown that anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing drives a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP6 historical simulations over 1850–1985, but the mechanisms have not been fully understood. Across CMIP6 models, it is shown that there is a strong correlation between surface heat loss over the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) and the forced strengthening of the AMOC. Despite the link to AA forcing, the AMOC response is not strongly related to the contribution of anomalous downwelling surface shortwave radiation to SPNA heat loss. Rather, the spread in AMOC response is primarily due to the spread in turbulent heat loss. We hypothesize that turbulent heat loss is larger in models with strong AA forcing because the air advected over the ocean is colder and drier, in turn because of greater AA-forced cooling over the continents upwind, especially North America. The strengthening of the AMOC also feeds back on itself positively in two distinct ways: by raising the sea surface temperature and hence further increasing turbulent heat loss in the SPNA, and by increasing the sea surface density across the SPNA due to increased northward transport of saline water. A comparison of key indices suggests that the AMOC response in models with strong AA forcing is not likely to be consistent with observations.

The ocean response to wintertime sea-ice retreat is investigated in the coupled climate model HiGEM. We focus on the marginal ice zone and adjacent waters of the Nordic Seas, where the air-sea temperature difference can be large during periods of off-ice winds promoting high heat flux events. Both control and transient climate model ensembles are examined, which allows us to isolate the ocean response due to sea-ice retreat from the response due to climate change. As the wintertime sea-ice edge retreats towards the Greenland coastline, it exposes waters that were previously covered by ice which enhances turbulent heat loss and mechanical mixing, leading to a greater loss of buoyancy and deeper vertical mixing in this location. However, under global warming, the buoyancy loss is inhibited as the atmosphere warms more rapidly than the ocean which reduces the air-sea temperature difference. This occurs most prominently further away from the retreating ice edge, over the Greenland Sea gyre. Over the gyre the upper ocean also warms significantly, resulting in a more stratified water column and, as a consequence, a reduction in the depth of convective mixing. In contrast, closer to the coast the effect of global warming is overshadowed by the effect of the sea-ice retreat, leading to significant changes in ocean temperature and salinity in the vicinity of the marginal ice zone.

The ice shelves of the Amundsen Sea are rapidly thinning, and this can be largely explained by basal melting driven by the ocean. However, sparse observational data and poorly known bathymetry contribute to the difficulty of quantifying the key ocean mechanisms that transport warm water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf and their variability. These processes should be represented in coupled climate models such as those used for CMIP6. Previously, we leveraged recent observational campaigns and gains in process understanding to assess how well four models, UKESM1 and the HadGEM-GC3.1 family of models, represent the ocean processes forcing warm water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf. We identified the medium resolution (1/4°) HadGEM-GC3.1-MM model’s inability to represent warm water intrusion on the continental shelf, revealing substantial biases in sea ice, SST, salinity and circulation in the Southern Ocean. It is important to understand the processes that are driving these biases, to guide the improvement of this and similar models. Here, we study model behaviour during the spin-up, control and historical runs, to identify what is causing this unrealistic behaviour. A key result is the rapid development of biases in temperature and salinity on the Amundsen’s Sea continental shelf, after only 15 years in the spin-up run, entering a state which persists throughout the following runs. By calculating the differences in sea ice concentration between years 0-5 and 10-15 of the spin up-run, we found significant changes across multiple regions of the Southern Ocean and continental shelf, with most of the East Antarctic sector and Bellingshausen Sea showing a considerable decline that exceeds 20% in some places. The differences between years 0-5 and 10-15 Notable freshening takes place in the whole West Antarctic sector and a strong westward slope current appears, which encircles Antarctica. While strong biases in sea ice and salinity develop later in the Weddell Sea, during the first 15 years the largest biases occur in Drake Passage and the west Antarctic sector. We analyse tendencies and the freshwater budget from the spin-up run to quantify the key processes that drive the development of these biases in selected regions.

Reaction with iodide (I-) at the sea surface is an important sink for atmospheric ozone, and causes sea-air emission of reactive iodine which in turn drives further ozone destruction. To incorporate this process into chemical transport models, improved understanding of the factors controlling marine iodine speciation, and especially sea-surface iodide concentrations, is needed. The oxidation of I- to iodate (IO3-) is the main sink for oceanic I-, but the mechanism for this remains unknown. We demonstrate for the first time that marine nitrifying bacteria mediate I- oxidation to IO3-. A significant increase in IO3- concentrations compared to media-only controls was observed in cultures of the ammonia-oxidising bacteria Nitrosomonas sp. (Nm51) and Nitrosoccocus oceani (Nc10) supplied with 9-10 mM I-, indicating I- oxidation to IO3-. Cell-normalised production rates were 15.69 (+/- 4.71) fmol IO3- cell(-1) d(-1) for Nitrosomonas sp., and 11.96 (+/- 6.96) fmol IO3- cell(-1) d(-1) for Nitrosococcus oceani, and molar ratios of iodate-to-nitrite production were 9.2 +/- 4.1 and 1.88 +/- 0.91 respectively. Preliminary experiments on nitrite-oxidising bacteria showed no evidence of I- to IO3- oxidation. If the link between ammonia and I oxidation observed here is representative, our ocean iodine cycling model predicts that future changes in marine nitrification could alter global sea surface I fields with potential implications for atmospheric chemistry and air quality.

Iodine is a critical trace element involved in many diverse and important processes in the Earth system. The importance of iodine for human health has been known for over a century, with low iodine in the diet being linked to goitre, cretinism and neonatal death. Research over the last few decades has shown that iodine has significant impacts on tropospheric photochemistry, ultimately impacting climate by reducing the radiative forcing of ozone (O 3 ) and air quality by reducing extreme O 3 concentrations in polluted regions. Iodine is naturally present in the ocean, predominantly as aqueous iodide and iodate. The rapid reaction of sea-surface iodide with O 3 is believed to be the largest single source of gaseous iodine to the atmosphere. Due to increased anthropogenic O 3 , this release of iodine is believed to have increased dramatically over the twentieth century, by as much as a factor of 3. Uncertainties in the marine iodine distribution and global cycle are, however, major constraints in the effective prediction of how the emissions of iodine and its biogeochemical cycle may change in the future or have changed in the past. Here, we present a synthesis of recent results by our team and others which bring a fresh perspective to understanding the global iodine biogeochemical cycle. In particular, we suggest that future climate-induced oceanographic changes could result in a significant change in aqueous iodide concentrations in the surface ocean, with implications for atmospheric air quality and climate.

Previous work has shown that anthropogenic aerosol emissions drive a strengthening in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP6 historical simulations over ~1850-1985. However, the mechanisms driving the increase are not fully understood. Previously, forced AMOC changes have been linked to changes in surface heat fluxes, changes in salinity, and interhemispheric energy imbalances. Here we will show that across CMIP6 historical simulations there is a strong correlation between ocean heat loss from the subpolar North Atlantic and the forced change in the AMOC. Furthermore, the model spread in the surface heat flux change explains the spread of the AMOC response and is correlated with the strength of the models’ aerosol forcing. However, the AMOC change is not strongly related to changes in downwelling surface shortwave radiation over the North Atlantic, showing that anthropogenic aerosols do not drive AMOC change through changes in the local surface radiation budget. Rather, by separating the models into those with ‘strong’ and ‘weak’ aerosol forcing, we show that aerosols appear to predominantly imprint their impact on the AMOC through changes in surface air temperature over the Northern Hemisphere and the consequent impact on latent and sensible heat flux. This thermodynamic driver (i.e. more heat loss from the North Atlantic) is enhanced both by the increase in the AMOC itself, which acts as a positive feedback, and by a response in atmospheric circulation.

Floating ice shelves buttress the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is losing mass rapidly mainly due to oceanic melting and the associated disruption to glacial dynamics. The local oceanic circulation near ice shelves is therefore important for the prediction of future ice mass loss and related sea-level rise as it determines the water mass exchange, heat transport under the ice shelf, and the resultant melting. However, the dynamics controlling the near-coastal circulation are not fully understood, particularly relating to seasonal and interannual changes in wind stress curl and ice cover. A gyre circulation (27 km radius, cyclonic) in front of the Pine Island Ice Shelf has been identified in both numerical models and velocity observations. In 2019 in the west of Thwaites Ice Shelf, for the first time in this habitually ice-covered region, another gyre circulation rotating in a different direction (13 km, anticyclonic) was detected by velocity observations. Here we use an idealised configuration of MITgcm, with idealised forcing based on ERA-5 climatological wind fields and simplified sea ice conditions from MODIS satellite images, to reproduce key features of the observed gyres near Pine Island Ice Shelf and Thwaites Ice Shelf. A barotropic version of the model is able to reproduce the gyres driven solely by the wind. We show that the modelled gyre direction depends upon the angle between the wind direction and the sea ice front. Gyres generated by wind in sea-ice-free conditions have directions controlled by the wind stress curl. When sea ice is present, the wind stress exerted on the sea surface is reduced, leading to a modified wind stress curl and a resultant change in gyre direction.

The Amundsen Sea glaciers, in West Antarctica, are among the world’s fastest discharges of ice into the ocean. The rapid thinning of these ice shelves can be largely explained by basal melting driven by the ocean. Relatively warm water reaches the continental shelf in the Amundsen Sea and deep bathymetric troughs facilitate warm deep water flow to the base of the ice shelves. However, time sparse observational data, and even poorly known bathymetry, contribute to the difficulty of quantifying the key ocean mechanisms, and their variability, that transport warm water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf and guide it southward into the ice shelf cavities. Nonetheless these processes should be represented in the coupled climate models, such as those used for CMIP6, which are being used to project future sea level rise.Here we leverage recent observational campaigns and gains in process understanding to assess how well four of these models, UKESM1 and the HadGEM-GC3.1 family of models, represent the ocean processes forcing warm water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf. The three HadGEM models have the same external forcing but different horizontal resolutions, 1/12, ¼ and 1 degree. The 1 degree resolution UKESM1 is based on HadGEM3.1 but includes atmospheric chemistry, aerosols and marine biogeochemistry. A key finding is the medium resolution (1/4°) HadGEM-GC3.1 model’s inability to allow warm deep water intrusion onto the continental shelf, associated with a strong westward slope current that is not present in the other models. The medium resolution model represents well the annual cycle of sea ice in the Amundsen Sea, but overall has significantly less sea ice around Antarctica, compared with the other models and satellite observations. Despite its low resolution, UKESM1 represents well all the main ocean features, including the shelf-break undercurrent, warm deep water and realistic sea ice. It captures more significant interannual variability, in contrast to the low resolution HadGEM, for which the interannual variability is more suppressed. Of the four models considered here, the best performing models are the 1/12° HadGEM and UKESM1, followed by the low resolution HadGEM model, which reasonably represents warmer deep water on the continental shelf and a shallower mixed layer. The medium resolution HadGEM, despite its better resolution is less realistic than the two low resolution models.

FORTE 2.0 is an intermediate-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) consisting of the Intermediate General Circulation Model 4 (IGCM4), a T42 spectral atmosphere with 35σ layers, coupled to Modular Ocean Model – Array (MOMA), a 2∘ × 2∘ ocean with 15 z-layer depth levels. Sea ice is represented by a simple flux barrier. Both the atmosphere and ocean components are coded in Fortran. It is capable of producing a stable climate for long integrations without the need for flux adjustments. One flexibility afforded by the IGCM4 atmosphere is the ability to configure the atmosphere with either 35σ layers (troposphere and stratosphere) or 20σ layers (troposphere only). This enables experimental designs for exploring the roles of the troposphere and stratosphere, and the faster integration of the 20σ layer configuration enables longer duration studies on modest hardware. A description of FORTE 2.0 is given, followed by the analysis of two 2000-year control integrations, one using the 35σ configuration of IGCM4 and one using the 20σ configuration.

Funding: This work is funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council under the iSTAR Programme through grants NE/J005703/1 (K.J.H., D.P.S., B.G.M.W.); European Research Council (under H2020-EU.1.1.) under research grant COMPASS (Climate-relevant Ocean Measurements and Processes on the Antarctic continental Shelf and Slope, grant agreement ID: 741120, K.J.H., Y.Z.); National Science Foundation Division of Polar Programs and Natural Environment Research Council under the research grant TARSAN (Thwaites-Amundsen Regional Survey and Network, NSF PLR 1738992 and NE/S006419/1, K.J.H.).Y.Z. is supported by China Scholarship Council and University of East Anglia. L.C.B. is supported by a Wallenberg Academy Fellowship (WAF 2015.0186) and Swedish Research Council grant (VR2019-04400) of S. Swart. Determining the injection of glacial meltwater into the polar oceans is crucial for quantifying the response of the climate system to ice sheet mass loss. However, meltwater is poorly observed and its pathways poorly known, especially in winter. Here we present winter meltwater distribution in the eastern Amundsen Sea near Pine Island Glacier, revealing a highly variable meltwater distribution with two meltwater-rich layers in the upper 250 m and at around 450 m, connected by scattered meltwater-rich columns. We show that the hydrographic signature of meltwater is clearest in winter, when its presence can be unambiguously mapped throughout the water column. We argue that the buoyant meltwater provides near-surface nutrient that enhances productivity and heat that helps maintain polynyas, close to ice shelves across the Amundsen Sea. Therefore, although the processes determining the distribution of meltwater are challenging, they are important to represent in Earth system models. Publisher PDF

Mass loss from the Antarctic continent is increasing; however, climate models either assume a constant mass loss rate or return snowfall over land to the ocean to maintain equilibrium. Numerous studies have investigated sea ice and ocean sensitivity to this assumption and reached different conclusions, possibly due to different representations of melt fluxes. The coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice model, HadGEM3-GC3.1, includes a realistic spatial distribution of coastal melt fluxes, a new ice shelf cavity parameterization, and explicit representation of icebergs. This configuration makes it appropriate to revisit how increasing melt fluxes influence ocean and sea ice and to assess whether responses to melt from ice shelves and icebergs are distinguishable. We present results from simulated scenarios of increasing meltwater fluxes and show that these drive sea ice increases and, for increasing ice shelf melt, a decline in Antarctic Bottom Water formation. In our experiments, the mixed layer around the Antarctic coast deepens in response to rising ice shelf meltwater and shallows in response to stratification driven by iceberg melt. We find similar surface temperature and salinity responses to increasing meltwater fluxes from ice shelves and icebergs, but midlayer waters warm to greater depths and farther north when ice shelf melt is present. We show that as meltwater fluxes increase, snowfall becomes more likely at lower latitudes and Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport declines. These insights are helpful for interpretation of climate simulations that assume constant mass loss rates and demonstrate the importance of representing increasing melt rates for both ice shelves and icebergs.

Meltwater from the Antarctic ice sheet is expected to increase the sea ice extent. However, such an expansion may be moderated by sea ice decline associated with global warming. Here we investigate the relative balance of these two processes through experiments using HadGEM3-GC3.1 and compare these to two standard idealized CMIP6 experiments. Our results show that the decline in sea ice projected under scenarios of increasing CO2 may be inhibited by simultaneously increasing melt fluxes. We find that Antarctic Bottom Water formation, projected to decline as CO2 increases, is likely to decline further with an increasing meltwater flux. In our simulations, the response of the westerly wind jet to increasing CO2 is enhanced when the meltwater flux increases, resulting in a stronger peak wind stress than is found when either CO2 or melt rates increase exclusively. We find that the sensitivity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to increasing melt fluxes in the Southern Ocean is countered by increasing CO2, removing or reducing a feedback mechanism that may otherwise allow more heat to be transported to the polar regions and drive increasing ice shelf melt rates. The insights presented here and in a companion paper (which focuses on the effect of increasing melt fluxes under preindustrial forcings) provide insights helpful to the interpretation of both future climate projections and sensitivity studies into the effect of increasing melt fluxes from the Antarctic ice sheet when different forcing scenarios are used.

An ocean iodine cycling model is presented, which predicts upper ocean iodine speciation. The model comprises a three-layer advective and diffusive ocean circulation model of the upper ocean, and an iodine cycling model embedded within this circulation. The two primary reservoirs of iodine are represented, iodide and iodate. Iodate is reduced to iodide in the mixed layer in association with primary production, linked by an iodine to carbon (I:C) ratio. A satisfactory model fit with observations cannot be obtained with a globally constant I:C ratio, and the best fit is obtained when the I:C ratio is dependent on sea surface temperature, increasing at low temperatures. Comparisons with observed iodide distributions show that the best model fit is obtained when oxidation of iodide back to iodate is associated with mixed layer nitrification. Sensitivity tests, where model parameters and processes are perturbed, reveal that primary productivity, mixed layer depth, oxidation, advection, surface fresh water flux and the I:C ratio all have a role in determining surface iodide concentrations, and the timescale of iodide in the mixed layer is sufficiently long for non-local processes to be important. Comparisons of the modelled iodide surface field with parameterisations by other authors shows good agreement in regions where observations exist, but significant differences in regions without observations. This raises the question of whether the existing parameterisations are capturing the full range of processes involved in determining surface iodide, and shows the urgent need for observations in regions where there are currently none.

Marine iodine speciation has emerged as a potential tracer of primary productivity, sedimentary inputs, and ocean oxygenation. The reaction of iodide with ozone at the sea surface has also been identified as the largest deposition sink for tropospheric ozone and the dominant source of iodine to the atmosphere. Accurate incorporation of these processes into atmospheric models requires improved understanding of iodide concentrations at the air-sea interface. Observations of sea surface iodide are relatively sparse and are particularly lacking in the Indian Ocean basin. Here we examine 127 new sea surface (≤10 m depth) iodide and iodate observations made during three cruises in the Indian Ocean and the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. The observations span latitudes from ∼12°N to ∼70°S, and include three distinct hydrographic regimes: the South Indian subtropical gyre, the Southern Ocean and the northern Indian Ocean including the southern Bay of Bengal. Concentrations and spatial distribution of sea surface iodide follow the same general trends as in other ocean basins, with iodide concentrations tending to decrease with increasing latitude (and decreasing sea surface temperature). However, the gradient of this relationship was steeper in subtropical waters of the Indian Ocean than in the Atlantic or Pacific, suggesting that it might not be accurately represented by widely used parameterizations based on sea surface temperature. This difference in gradients between basins may arise from differences in phytoplankton community composition and/or iodide production rates. Iodide concentrations in the tropical northern Indian Ocean were higher and more variable than elsewhere. Two extremely high iodide concentrations (1241 and 949 nM) were encountered in the Bay of Bengal and are thought to be associated with sedimentary inputs under low oxygen conditions. Excluding these outliers, sea surface iodide concentrations ranged from 20 to 250 nM, with a median of 61 nM. Controls on sea surface iodide concentrations in the Indian Ocean were investigated using a state-of-the-art iodine cycling model. Multiple interacting factors were found to drive the iodide distribution. Dilution via vertical mixing and mixed layer depth shoaling are key controls, and both also modulate the impact of biogeochemical iodide formation and loss processes.

Reaction with iodide (I) at the sea surface is an important sink for atmospheric ozone, and causes sea-air emission of reactive iodine which in turn drives further ozone destruction. To incorporate...

Arctic heat and freshwater budgets are highly sensitive to volume transports through Arctic-Subarctic straits. Here we investigate how the volume transports through these straits adjust to each other to maintain a mass balance in the Arctic on annual timescales. To this end, we use three models; two coupled global climate models, one with a third-degree horizontal ocean resolution (HiGEM1.1) and one with a twelfth-degree horizontal ocean resolution (HadGEM3), and one ocean-only model with an idealized polar basin (tenth-degree horizontal resolution). The two global climate models indicate that there is a strong anti-correlation between the Bering Strait throughflow and the transport through the Nordic Seas, a second strong anti-correlation between the transport through the Canadian Artic Archipelago (CAA) and the Nordic Seas transport, and a third strong anti-correlation between the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea throughflows. We find that part of the strait correlations is due to the strait transports being coincidentally driven by large-scale atmospheric forcing patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation. However, there is also a role for fast wave adjustments of some straits flows to perturbations in other straits since atmospheric forcing of individual strait flows alone cannot lead to near mass balance fortuitously every year. Idealized experiments with an ocean model (NEMO3.6) that investigate such causal strait relations suggest that perturbations in the Bering Strait are compensated preferentially in the Fram Strait due to the narrowness of the western Arctic shelf and the deeper depth of the Fram Strait.

Sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal extrema are important for water mass formation, intensification of tropical cyclones and coral bleaching, so should be well-represented in models used for future climate projections. Typically, climate model evaluations focus on annual or longer-term mean SST. However, accurate mean SST does not guarantee accurate seasonal extrema or annual cycles. Models that have no biases in mean SST can have biases in seasonal extrema and annual cycles, and vice versa.Here we assess seasonal extrema in a selection of CMIP6 model historical runs (including BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, CESM2, GFDL-CM4 and GISS-E2-1-G), averaged over 1981-2010, against the World Ocean Atlas (WOA18) observational climatology. The magnitude and pattern of SST biases for seasonal extrema vary from model to model. GFDL-CM4 and CESM2 simulate SST extrema reasonably well, while BCC-CSM2-MR and GISS-E2-1-G have obvious deficiencies. The global area-weighted root mean square (RMS) difference from WOA18 is larger than 2oC in BCC-CSM2-MR and GISS-E2-1-G, and their common maximum bias (larger than 5oC) is the cold bias located in the subpolar North Pacific, Greenland Sea and Norwegian Sea. The model biases of maximum SST (summer SST) and minimum SST (winter SST) are in some cases different, leading to biased SST annual cycles. The SST biases are typically smaller for summer, except for models with significant winter cold bias in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (BCC-CSM2-MR and GISS-E2-1-G). Generally speaking, the bias of the SST annual cycle is smaller than that of seasonal extrema; models that are too cold in winter are typically also too cold in summer. In eastern boundary regions, the models have too small annual cycles. In these regions, the warm bias of winter SST is less than the warm bias of summer SST. This is because the warm bias in models due to poorly captured stratocumulus can be compensated by coastal upwelling, which cools the sea surface more in summer than in winter.We note that extra attention should be paid when evaluating SST extrema in some polar areas as the observational climatology there can be unrealistic, particularly in winter.

The Nordic Seas have a significant impact on global climate due to their role in providing dense overflows to the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the dramatic loss of sea ice in recent decades is creating a new atmosphere-ice-ocean environment where large swathes of the ocean that were previously ice-covered are now exposed to the atmosphere. Despite the largest sea-ice loss occurring in summer and autumn, the sea-ice loss in winter and spring is arguably more important for the climate system. Atmosphere-ocean coupling is the most intense in the extended winter, when convective mixing leads to water-mass modification processes, impacting the densest waters of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here we focus on the marginal-ice-zone of the Nordic Seas where the air-sea temperature difference is large, promoting high heat flux events during periods of off-ice winds. We use both transient and control simulations of the coupled climate model HiGEM, which allows us to isolate the climate change response from the sea-ice retreat response. We find that wintertime sea-ice retreat leads to remarkable changes in ocean surface heat exchanges and wind energy input. As the sea ice edge retreats towards the Greenland coastline, there is a band of exposed ocean which was previously covered by ice. This exposure allows enhanced mechanical mixing by the wind and a greater loss of buoyancy from the ocean leading to deeper vertical mixing in the upper ocean. Sensible and latent heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere provide the greatest loss of buoyancy. However, climate warming inhibits this process as the atmosphere warms more rapidly than the ocean which reduces the sea-air temperature difference. Further away from the retreating ice edge, toward the centre of the Greenland Sea, the upper ocean warms, resulting in a more stratified water column. As a consequence, the depth of convective mixing reduces over the deep ocean and increases over shallower regions close to the coast. This leads to changes in the formation and properties of some of the water masses that enter the North Atlantic and thus may modify the ocean circulation in the subpolar seas in response to sea-ice decline.

In the Southern Ocean the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is significantly steered by large topographic features, and subpolar gyres form in their lee. The geometry of topographic features in the Southern Ocean is highly variable, but the influence of this variation on the large-scale flow is poorly understood. Using idealized barotropic simulations of a zonal channel with a meridional ridge, it is found that the ridge geometry is important for determining the net zonal volume transport. A relationship is observed between ridge width and volume transport that is determined by the form stress generated by the ridge. Gyre formation is also highly reliant on the ridge geometry. A steep ridge allows gyres to form within regions of unblocked geostrophic (f/H) contours, with an increase in gyre strength as the ridge width is reduced. These relationships among ridge width, gyre strength, and net zonal volume transport emerge to simultaneously satisfy the conservation of momentum and vorticity.

This work was supported by funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council's iSTAR Program through grants NE/J005703, NE/J005649/1 and NE/J005770/1. The Amundsen Sea is a key region of Antarctica where ocean, atmosphere, sea ice and ice sheet interact. For much of Antarctica, the relatively warm ocean water in the open Southern Ocean (a few degrees above freezing) is unable to reach the continental shelf in large volumes under current climate conditions. In the Amundsen Sea, however, warm water penetrates onto the continental shelf and provides heat that can melt the underside of the floating ice shelves. Here we discuss how the role of the ocean has come under increased scrutiny in recent years, because ocean heat fluxes have been implicated in the thinning of the ice shelves. We present observations from the Amundsen Sea in 2014 and discuss their implications, highlighting aspects where our understanding is still incomplete. Publisher PDF

The ice shelves around the Amundsen Sea are rapidly melting as a result of the circulation of relatively warm ocean water into their cavities. However, little is known about the processes that determine the variability of this circulation. Here we use an ocean circulation model to diagnose the relative importance of horizontal and vertical (overturning) circulation within Pine Island Trough, leading to Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. We show that melt rates and southward Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) transports covary over large parts of the continental shelf at interannual to decadal time scales. The dominant external forcing mechanism for this variability is Ekman pumping and suction on the continental shelf and at the shelf break, in agreement with previous studies. At the continental shelf break, the southward transport of CDW and heat is predominantly barotropic. Farther south within Pine Island Trough, northward and southward barotropic heat transports largely cancel, and the majority of the net southward temperature transport is facilitated by baroclinic and overturning circulations. The overturning circulation is related to water mass transformation and buoyancy gain on the shelf that is primarily facilitated by freshwater input from basal melting.

This study examines the web-based accountability (WBA) of a random selection of nonprofitorganizations (NPOs) in the environmental quality protection and beautification sector in the United States. Web accountability is a measure of the amount of information that is publicly available to stakeholders and potential donors from an organization’s website. The methodology and variables used here have been used in previous studies on differing types of NPOs. Findings indicate that the ethics and generosity of citizens, the number of NPOs, and various laws concerning the legal protection of assets from misuse and/or fraud are important indicators of WBA.

Web-based accountability continues to be an important consideration for nonprofit organizations. This research examines the impact of certain variables on web-based accountability in the arts, culture, and humanities sector. A content analysis of eighty nonprofit organizations was performed and multiple statistical analyses were used. Findings indicated that regulatory measures, including the prosecution and a detection index, are the most significant variables for determining web-based accountability for this group of nonprofit organizations.

It is estimated that more than 53.5 million workers have been the victim of workplace bullying in the US. The purpose of this study was to investigate the presence of workplace bullying behaviors in the special events industry. A survey of 447 hospitality workers indicated that special events workers witness significantly less bullying behaviors than their non-special events hospitality counterparts. Specifically, special events workers reported witnessing less of the following bullying behaviors: "exclusion," "gossip," "glaring," "space invasion," "intimidating discipline," "innuendo and sarcasm," "wrongful judgment," "public shaming," and "work left for others" than workers in all other facets of the hospitality industry. Practical implications and recommendations for future study are provided.

In the United States alone, it is estimated that that more than 53.5 million Americans have been victims of bullying at work. As one of the largest private-sector employers in the United States, it stands to reason that the foodservice industry is exceedingly susceptible to this workplace phenomenon. Thus, the purpose of this study was to investigate the presence of workplace bullying behaviors in the foodservice industry. A survey of 440 hospitality workers indicated that foodservice workers witness exclusion, verbal abuse, sexual intimidation, inappropriate jokes, teasing, and mean pranks significantly more frequently than non-foodservice hospitality workers. Practical implications and recommendations for future study are provided.

Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies.

Since the publication of Standards for QUality Improvement Reporting Excellence (SQUIRE 1.0) guidelines in 2008, the science of the field has advanced considerably. In this article, we describe the development of SQUIRE 2.0 and its key components. We undertook the revision between 2012 and 2015 using (1) semistructured interviews and focus groups to evaluate SQUIRE 1.0 plus feedback from an international steering group, (2) two face-to-face consensus meetings to develop interim drafts, and (3) pilot testing with authors and a public comment period. SQUIRE 2.0 emphasizes the reporting of three key components of systematic efforts to improve the quality, value, and safety of health care: the use of formal and informal theory in planning, implementing, and evaluating improvement work; the context in which the work is done; and the study of the intervention(s). SQUIRE 2.0 is intended for reporting the range of methods used to improve health care, recognizing that they can be complex and multidimensional. It provides common ground to share these discoveries in the scholarly literature (www.squire-statement.org).

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a northwest-southeast oriented precipitation band over the South Pacific Ocean. Latent heat release from condensation leads to substantial diabatic heating, which has potentially large impacts on local and global climate. The influence of this diabatic heating within the SPCZ is investigated using the Intermediate General Circulation Model (IGCM4). Precipitation in the SPCZ has been shown to be triggered by transient Rossby waves that originate in the Australian subtropical jet and are refracted towards the equatorial eastern Pacific. A Rossby wave triggers a SPCZ 'convective event', with associated diabatic heat release and vortex stretching. Consequently, the Rossby wave is dissipated in the SPCZ region. These features are simulated well in a control integration of IGCM4. In an experiment, convective heating is prescribed to its 'climatological' value in the SPCZ region during the Rossby wave 'events' and dynamic forcing from Rossby waves is decoupled from the usual thermodynamic response. In this experiment Rossby waves over the SPCZ region are not dissipated, confirming the vortex stretching mechanism from previous studies. Furthermore, the change in Rossby wave propagation has an impact on momentum transport. Overall, the effect of the Rossby wave-induced convection in the SPCZ is to decrease the strength of the Pacific subtropical jet and the equatorial eastern Pacific upper-tropospheric westerlies, by about 2-6 m s-1. Following these changes to the basic state, two potential feedbacks in the SPCZ and larger Pacific climate system are suggested: increased SPCZ convection due to the enhancement of negative zonal stretching deformation in the SPCZ region and decreased equatorward refraction of Rossby waves into the westerly duct leading to less SPCZ 'events'. As the convective events in the SPCZ have a significant impact on Pacific mean climate, it is crucial that the SPCZ is represented correctly in climate models.