Search

Understanding the environmental mechanisms that govern population change is a fundamental objective in ecology. Although the determination of how top-down and bottom-up drivers affect demography is important, it is often equally critical to understand the extent to which, environmental conditions that underpin these drivers fluctuate across time. For example, associations between climate and both food availability and predation risk may suggest the presence of trophic interactions that may influence inferences made from patterns in ecological data. Analytical tools have been developed to account for these correlations, while providing opportunities to ask novel questions regarding how populations change across space and time. Here, we combine two modeling disciplines-path analysis and mark-recapture-recovery models-to explore whether shifts in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) influenced top-down (entanglement in fishing equipment) or bottom-up (forage fish production) population constraints over 60 years, and the extent to which these covarying processes shaped the survival of a long-lived seabird, the Royal tern. We found that hemispheric trends in SST were associated with variation in the amount of fish harvested along the Atlantic coast of North America and in the Caribbean, whereas reductions in forage fish production were mostly driven by shifts in the amount of fish harvested by commercial fisheries throughout the North Atlantic the year prior. Although the indirect (i.e., stock depletion) and direct (i.e., entanglement) impacts of commercial fishing on Royal tern mortality has declined over the last 60 years, increased SSTs during this time period has resulted in a comparable increase in mortality risk, which disproportionately impacted the survival of the youngest age-classes of Royal terns. Given climate projections for the North Atlantic, our results indicate that threats to Royal tern population persistence in the Mid-Atlantic will most likely be driven by failures to recruit juveniles into the breeding population.

Research Highlight: Valenzuela-Sánchez, A., Azat, C., Cunningham, A. A., Delgado, S., Bacigalupe, L. D., Beltrand, J., Serrano, J. M., Sentenac, H., Haddow, N., Toledo, V., Schmidt, B. R.,Cayuela, H. (2022). Interpopulation differences in male reproductive effort drive the population dynamics of a host exposed to an emerging fungal pathogen. Journal of Animal Ecology, 00, 1- 12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13603. Understanding the nuances of population persistence in the face of a stressor can help predict extinction risk and guide conservation actions. However, the exact mechanisms driving population stability may not always be known. In this paper, Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. (2022) integrate long-term mark-recapture data, focal measurements of reproductive effort, a population matrix model and inferences on life-history variation to reveal differences in demographic response to disease in a susceptible frog species (Rhinoderma darwinii). Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. found that demographic compensation via recruitment explained the positive population growth rate in their high disease prevalence population whereas the low disease prevalence population did not compensate and thus had decreasing population growth. Compensatory recruitment was likely due to the high probability of males brooding, and the high number of brooded larvae in the high prevalence population compared to low prevalence and disease-free populations. Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. also document faster generation times in the high prevalence population, which may indicate a faster life history that may be contributing to the population's ability to compensate for reduced survival. Lastly, the authors find a positive relationship between disease prevalence and the proportion of juveniles in a given population that suggest that there may be a threshold for disease prevalence that triggers increased reproductive effort. Altogether, their study provides novel support for increased reproductive effort as the pathway for compensatory recruitment leading to increasing population growth despite strong negative effects of disease on adult survival. Their results also caution the overgeneralization of the effects of stressors (e.g. disease) on population dynamics, where context-dependent responses may differ among host populations of a given species.

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture–mark–recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first‐year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics., Our understanding of the consequences of climate change for Arctic endemic species is limited. We developed an integrated population model to describe the population dynamics of spectacled eiders, a threatened Arctic sea duck. Our analysis revealed abundance has increased since listing under the Endangered Species Act in 1993, however, spectacled eiders are vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions experienced throughout their core wintering range.

The climate on our planet is changing and the range distributions of organisms are shifting in response. In aquatic environments, species might not be able to redistribute poleward or into deeper water when temperatures rise because of barriers, reduced light availability, altered water chemistry or any combination of these. How species respond to climate change may depend on physiological adaptability, but also on the population dynamics of the species. Density dependence is a ubiquitous force that governs population dynamics and regulates population growth, yet its connections to the impacts of climate change remain little known, especially in marine studies. Reductions in density below an environmental carrying capacity may cause compensatory increases in demographic parameters and population growth rate, hence masking the impacts of climate change on populations. On the other hand, climate-driven deterioration of conditions may reduce environmental carrying capacities, making compensation less likely and populations more susceptible to the effects of stochastic processes. Here we investigate the effects of climate change on Baltic blue mussels using a 17-year dataset on population density. Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we investigate the impacts of climate change, assess the magnitude and effects of density dependence, and project the likelihood of population decline by the year 2030. Our findings show negative impacts of warmer and less saline waters, both outcomes of climate change. We also show that density dependence increases the likelihood of population decline by subjecting the population to the detrimental effects of stochastic processes (i.e. low densities where random bad years can cause local extinction, negating the possibility for random good years to offset bad years). We highlight the importance of understanding, and accounting for both density dependence and climate variation when predicting the impact of climate change on keystone species, such as the Baltic blue mussel.

Anthropogenic landscape alteration and climate change can have multiscale and interrelated effects on ecological systems. Such changes to the environment can disrupt the connection between habitat quality and the cues that species use to identify quality habitat, which can result in an ecological trap. Ecological traps are typically difficult to identify without fine-scale information on individual survival and fitness, but this information is rarely available over large temporal and spatial scales. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States and Canada has undergone extensive changes in the latter half of the 20th century due to advancements in agricultural technologies, water management practices and climate change. Historically, the PPR has been a highly productive area for breeding waterfowl. While the overall trends for dabbling ducks in the PPR have exhibited increasing abundances since the late 1980s, some species, such as the northern pintail, have been declining in abundance. We used a long-term dataset of pintail counts across the PPR to separate count data into a demographic process and a habitat selection process using a hierarchical model. The hierarchical model provided an alternative way of identifying ecological traps in the absence of individual survival and fitness. Our model also allowed us to account for the indirect pathways by which climate and agriculture impact pintail through their additional contribution to wetland availability, which is a primary driver of pintail demography and habitat selection. Decoupling these processes allowed us to identify an ecological trap related to increasing cropland land cover, in which pintail selected for cropland over alternative nesting habitat, likely due to the similarities with productive native mixed-grass prairie. However, large proportions of cropland within a region resulted in fewer pintail the following year, likely due to nest failures from predation and agricultural practices. In addition, we identified several regions in Canada where this ecological trap is contributing significantly to mismatches between habitat selection and demographic processes.

Relatively little is known about the feeding ecology of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in Wapusk National Park. Other ursids, polar bears (Ursus maritimus), are well known predators of waterfowl nests in the area, and grizzly bears could feasibly make use of such resources. However, since the arrival of polar bears on land in the spring is largely dependent on date of sea-ice breakup, the timing of predation by each bear species may differ. We investigated the timing of bear predation in common eider (Somateria mollissima sedentaria) and lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) colonies from 2012 to 2018 using nest cameras. We observed grizzlies consuming eggs of both species in all years except 2013 and confirmed that at least two individual grizzlies occupied the park in 2016. In the 3 years when both grizzly and polar bears were detected, grizzlies were observed earlier in the year than polar bears and had greater overlap with an estimated availability index of incubating waterfowl. We hypothesize that grizzly bears could have earlier access to waterfowl eggs in the park, potentially reducing availability of these terrestrial foods to polar bears.

The bulk of theoretical population biology has focused on long-term, asymptotic population dynamics for which tractable analytical solutions can be derived for particular questions. Following suit, the vast majority of empirical studies have focused on the established parameters provided by theory, such as the asymptotic population growth rate associated with a stable stage structure. But ‘there is nothing permanent [in natural environments] except change’ (Heraclitus), and thus there are good reasons to expect nonstable stage structures in real populations. The urgency of global change is indeed prompting increasing popularity of studying the transient dynamics caused by nonstable stage structures that occur before asymptotic dynamics are reached. This chapter provides an introduction to the concepts and analysis of transient dynamics using matrix projection models and ample examples.

The relationship between the rate of predation and prey abundance is an important component of predator–prey dynamics. However, functional responses are less straightforward when multiple predators compete for shared prey. Interactions among competing predators can reduce or enhance effects of predation on prey populations. Because many avian populations experience high rates of nest predation, understanding the role of specific predators on nest mortality will lead to more informed conservation and management strategies which attempt to increase productivity by removing certain predators or managing habitat to limit their impact. Our goal was to evaluate effects of specific predators and the influence of nest abundance on nest mortality. We monitored snowy plover Charadrius nivosus nests across 7 years at two study areas in Utah, USA, with remote cameras. We modelled predator‐specific hazard rates for nest mortality in a Bayesian framework to assess relationships between competing predators and the role of nest abundance on predator‐specific hazard rates. We found that hazard rates for nest mortality by gulls Larus spp. decreased with increasing nest abundance, whereas nest mortality by foxes Vulpes spp. and ravens Corvus corax initially increased, indicating that dietary switching may occur when nests become more abundant. Nest mortalities of specific predators were often not independent and ranged between compensatory (e.g. mammalian mesopredators) and superadditive (e.g. avian predators) across the breeding season. The non‐independence between nest mortalities suggests that reductions in some predators may not translate to additive increases in overall nest success. Analyses of cause‐specific mortality are rarely applied to avian nests, but examination of interacting impacts among competing predators on nest survival may provide insight into specific drivers of avian population dynamics. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Time series of vital rates are often used to construct "environment-blind" stochastic population projections and calculate the elasticity of population growth to increased temporal variance in vital rates. Here, we show that the utility of this widely used demographic tool is greatly limited by shifts in vital rate correlations that occur as environmental drivers become increasingly variable. The direction and magnitude of these shifts are unpredictable without environmentally explicit models. Shifting vital rate correlations had the largest fitness effects on life histories with short to medium generation times, potentially hampering comparative analyses based on elasticities to vital rate variance for a wide range of species. Shifts in vital rate correlations are likely ubiquitous in increasingly variable environments, and further research should empirically evaluate the life histories for which detailed mechanistic relationships between vital rates and environmental drivers are required for making reliable predictions versus those for which summarized demographic data are sufficient.

The management of sustainable harvest of animal populations is of great ecological and conservation importance. Development of formal quantitative tools to estimate and mitigate the impacts of harvest on animal populations has positively impacted conservation efforts. The vast majority of existing harvest models, however, do not simultaneously estimate ecological and harvest impacts on demographic parameters and population trends. Given that the impacts of ecological drivers are often equal to or greater than the effects of harvest, and can covary with harvest, this disconnect has the potential to lead to flawed inference. In this study, we used Bayesian hierarchical models and a 43-year capture-mark-recovery dataset from 404,241 female mallards Anas platyrhynchos released in the North American midcontinent to estimate mallard demographic parameters. Furthermore, we model the dynamics of waterfowl hunters and habitat, and the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic and ecological processes on mallard demographic parameters. We demonstrate that density dependence, habitat conditions and harvest can simultaneously impact demographic parameters of female mallards, and discuss implications for existing and future harvest management models. Our results demonstrate the importance of controlling for multicollinearity among demographic drivers in harvest management models, and provide evidence for multiple mechanisms that lead to partial compensation of mallard harvest. We provide a novel model structure to assess these relationships that may allow for improved inference and prediction in future iterations of harvest management models across taxa.

Understanding relationships between habitat and ecological processes often depends on the spatial scale at which the landscape is measured. A common objective in studies of avian nesting ecology is to link habitat characteristics with nest predation for generating potential conservation and management strategies aimed at increasing avian reproductive success. Yet scale dependence likely plays a considerable role in these assessments, particularly when multiple species of nest predators are present. We identified nest predators of snowy plovers, a ground‐nesting shorebird, and modeled predator‐specific hazard rates of nest mortality in relation to the landscape at multiple spatial scales (200 m, 500 m, 1 km, 2.5 km, and 5 km) and at the nest site. We used a Bayesian latent indicator approach for weighting the influence of habitat across spatial scales and to gain insight into the hierarchical nature of how specific predators responded to the landscape when preying upon plover nests. We did not identify a common spatial scale that best predicted nest predation by all predators, though our results indicated that unfragmented playa and marsh habitats at large spatial scales reduced nest predation by all nest predators. Land cover features including grass, shrubs, human development, and open water elicited variable responses depending on the predator group, and predator groups responded at different spatial scales. Further, the spatial configuration of nests (nest dispersion) influenced nest predation by common ravens Corvus corax and foxes (kit fox Vulpes macrotis and red fox Vulpes vulpes), suggesting that certain predators develop a search image for nests. Our results illustrate that clarifying complex relationships between nest predation and habitat characteristics requires the incorporation of predator identity and scale dependence. Thus, management and conservation plans aiming to increase avian productivity by altering or restoring habitats will likely benefit from consideration of predator‐specific patterns at multiple spatial scales.

Climatic changes are affecting the distribution and viability of species worldwide, and the effects may be greatest for heat‐sensitive organisms in populations situated near the species’ equatorial range limit. We studied the population dynamics of a cold‐adapted large herbivore, moose (Alces alces shirasi), in a population located at the extreme southern range limit of the species in Utah, USA, using a long‐term dataset of aerial counts conducted between 1958 and 2013. We used a modeling approach that acknowledges the uncertainty in the number of moose counted. To determine how climate influenced this population, we tested four models corresponding to different hypotheses suggested by previous studies of moose population dynamics: (1) High summer rainfall increases population growth, (2) severe winters reduce population growth, (3) high summer and winter temperatures cause heat stress which reduces population growth, and (4) snow conditions favorable to winter ticks reduce population growth. We then ranked these models against two additional hypotheses that tested the combined effects of the best‐performing models. The best‐supported model included summer rainfall and the number of days with snow cover in late winter, which described the conditions influencing winter tick numbers, a common parasite of moose in the region. Reproductive female ticks drop off their hosts at the end of winter to lay eggs, and fewer ticks survive in years with abundant snow cover. Positive effects of snow and rainfall indicated that moose population growth was higher following summers with more rainfall and late winters with more days of snow cover, the latter because those conditions likely reduced winter tick numbers. In accordance with global patterns in which altered precipitation regimes are influencing the dynamics of many species, the top‐performing model suggested that both summer and winter precipitation acted together to explain the most variation in moose population growth. Our analysis demonstrates the multiple pathways by which climate and population density can affect the dynamics of temperate species living at their equatorial range limits, including potential parasite‐mediated effects.

The global spread of invasive species has created significant challenges for avian conservation. Introduced predators and pathogens have long been recognized for their direct negative effects on birds, but introduced amphibians can reach high densities on islands with no native amphibians, where they interact with native species. The coqui frog (Eleutherodactylus coqui), introduced to the Hawaiian Islands in the late 1980s, could have significant impacts on birds because it is fully terrestrial and achieves high densities. Coquis have been hypothesized to compete with native birds for invertebrate prey, but could also serve as a novel food resource for birds that consume small vertebrates. To test whether coquis measurably affect bird abundance, we conducted point counts of birds in coqui-invaded and adjacent uninvaded plots across 15 sites on the island of Hawaii, USA. We used N-mixture models to estimate the effect of coqui presence and density on the abundances of both native and nonnative birds, while controlling for possible habitat differences between plots with and without coquis. We found that coquis were associated with ∼35% higher abundance of nonnative birds in general, and more specifically generalist birds that sometimes consume small vertebrates. We suggest that generalist birds increase in abundance with coquis primarily because coquis serve as an abundant food resource. While 4 native bird species co-occurred with coquis, native bird abundance (20% of our total observations) did not show a difference across coqui-invaded and uninvaded plots. Coquis do not appear to be important competitors with native birds in Hawaii, but the frogs are associated with increased abundances of some nonnative birds, which could induce undesirable ecosystem impacts.

Effective conservation for listed migratory species requires an understanding of how drivers of population decline vary spatially and temporally, as well as knowledge of range-wide connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas. Environmental conditions distant from breeding areas can have lasting effects on the demography of migratory species, yet these consequences are often the least understood. Our objectives were to 1) evaluate associations between survival and extreme environmental disturbances at nonbreeding areas, including hurricanes, harmful algal blooms, and oil spills, and 2) estimate migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas of midcontinental piping plovers (Charadrius melodus). We used capture and resighting data from 5067 individuals collected between 2002 and 2019 from breeding areas across the midcontinent, and nonbreeding areas throughout the Gulf of Mexico and southern Atlantic coasts of North America. We developed a hidden Markov multistate model to estimate seasonal survival and account for unobservable geographic locations. Hurricanes and harmful algal blooms were negatively associated with nonbreeding season survival, but we did not detect a similarly negative relationship with oil spills. Our results indicated that individuals from separate breeding areas mixed across nonbreeding areas with low migratory connectivity. Mixing among individuals in the nonbreeding season may provide a buffering effect against impacts of extreme events on any one breeding region. Our results suggest that understanding migratory connectivity and linking seasonal threats to population dynamics can better inform conservation strategies for migratory shorebirds.

We recently analyzed long-term (1951–2011) continental band-recovery data from lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) and demonstrated that harvest rates declined through time, but annual survival rates exhibited no such trends; moreover, annual harvest and survival rates were uncorrelated for all age-sex classes. We therefore concluded that declining fecundity was most likely responsible for recent population declines, rather than changes in harvest or survival. Lindberg et al. (2017) critiqued our conclusions, arguing that we did little more than fail to reject a null hypothesis of compensatory mortality, postulated ecologically unrealistic changes in fecundity, and failed to give sufficient consideration to additive harvest mortality. Herein, we re-summarize our original evidence indicating that harvest has been compensatory, or at most weakly additive, and demonstrate that our analysis had sufficient power to detect strongly additive mortality if it occurred. We further demonstrate that our conclusions were not confounded by population size, band loss, or individual heterogeneity, as suggested by Lindberg et al. (2017), and we provide additional support for our conjecture that low fecundity played a major role in declining scaup populations during 1983–2006. We therefore reiterate our original management recommendations: given low harvest rates and lack of demonstrable effect on scaup survival, harvest regulations could return to more liberal frameworks, and waterfowl biologists should work together to continue banding lesser scaup and use these data to explore alternative hypotheses to identify the true ecological causes of population change, given that it is unlikely to be excessive harvest. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

Large amounts of money are spent each year to control overabundant species that imperil biodiversity and ecosystem functioning across the globe. Lesser Snow Geese (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) are emblematic of this issue, as their overabundance has affected a whole suite of plant, insect, and bird communities via a trophic cascade that managers have attempted to stop before it spreads further across the North American (sub)Arctic. To achieve this goal, liberalized harvest measures designed to decrease Lesser Snow Goose survival and abundance were implemented almost 2 decades ago. Our previous quantitative assessment of management effectiveness indicated that the growing Lesser Snow Goose population quickly overwhelmed a satiated hunter population despite liberalized harvest regulations, eventually reducing the fraction of Lesser Snow Geese being harvested each year. Consistent with the philosophy of adaptive resource management, we apply improved methods to additional years of monitoring data to evaluate the ongoing impact of harvest conservation efforts on Lesser Snow Goose harvest rates. Our previous results suggested little effect of liberalized harvest regulations on harvest rates, but our new findings suggest even less of an impact. Harvest rates have recently stabilized at ~3%, the lowest levels observed over the last 48 yr of our study. Barring adverse effects of environmental change on natural mortality or reproductive success, additional measures will need to be taken to reduce Lesser Snow Goose overabundance and their ecosystem damage.

Summary Conserving viable large carnivore populations requires managing their interactions with humans in increasingly anthropogenic landscapes. Faced with declining budgets and escalating wildlife conflicts, agencies in North America continue to grapple with uncertainty surrounding the efficacy of socially divisive management actions such as harvest to reduce conflict. We used multistate capture–reencounter methods to estimate cause-specific mortality for a large sample (>3500) of American black bears Ursus americanus in north-western New Jersey, USA over a 33-year period. Specifically, we focused on factors that might influence the probability of bears being harvested, lethally managed, or dying from other causes. We further analysed temporal correlations between >26 000 human–black bear incidents reported between 2001 and 2013 and estimates of total mortality rates, and specifically, rates of harvest from newly implemented public hunts and lethal management. Adult females were twice as likely (0·163 ± 0·014) as adult males (0·087 ± 0·012) to be harvested during the study period. Cubs (0·444 ± 0·025) and yearlings (0·372 ± 0·022) had a higher probability of dying from other causes, primarily vehicle strikes, than adults (0·199 ± 0·008). Reports of nuisance behaviours in year t + 1 declined with increasing mortality resulting from harvest plus lethal management in year t (P = 0·028, R2 = 0·338). Adult bears previously designated as a nuisance and/or threat were more likely to be harvested (0·176 ± 0·025) than those never identified as a problem (0·109 ± 0·010). Across age classes, individuals assigned problem status, were significantly more likely to be lethally controlled. Synthesis and applications. Given continuing failures in conserving exploited carnivores, their recreational harvest and lethal management remain polarizing. Within this social-ecological system, the well-regulated harvest of carefully monitored black bear populations represents a pragmatic approach to achieve population objectives. Furthermore, the integration of harvest and incident-response management (both lethal and non-lethal practices) with educational programmes aimed at reducing anthropogenic attractants can result in subsequent reductions in problem behaviours reported.

Current understanding of life-history evolution and how demographic parameters contribute to population dynamics across species is largely based on assumptions of either constant environments or stationary environmental variation. Meanwhile, species are faced with non-stationary environmental conditions (changing mean, variance, or both) created by climate and landscape change. To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, we develop a set of transient life table response experiments (LTREs) for decomposing realised population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure. Using transient LTREs in a theoretical framework, we reveal that established concepts in population biology will require revision because of reliance on approaches that do not address the influence of unstable population structure on population growth and mean fitness. Going forward, transient LTREs will enhance understanding of demography and improve the explanatory power of models used to understand ecological and evolutionary dynamics.

Management of lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) has been hindered by access to reliable data on population trajectories and vital rates. We conducted a Bayesian analysis of historical (1951–2011) band-recovery data throughout North America to estimate annual survival and recovery rates for juvenile and adult male and female lesser scaup to determine if increasing harvest or declining survival rates have contributed to population changes and to determine if harvest has been primarily additive or compensatory. Annual recovery rates were low, ranging from 1% to 4% for adults and 2% to 10% for juveniles during most years, with trend models indicating that recovery rates have declined through time for all age–sex classes. Annual survival (mid-Aug to mid-Aug) averaged 0.402 ( 0.043) for juvenile males, 0.416 ( 0.067) for juvenile females, 0.689 ( 0.109) for adult males, and 0.602 ( 0.115) for adult females, where represents an estimate of annual process variation in each survival rate. Annual survival rates exhibited no evidence of long-term declines or negative correlations with annual recovery rates (i.e., an index of harvest intensity) for any age–sex class, suggesting that declining fecundity was the most likely explanation for population declines during 1975–2005. We conclude that hunting mortality played a minor role in affecting population dynamics of lesser scaup and waterfowl managers could take a less cautious approach in managing harvest, especially if recruiting or maintaining waterfowl hunters are viewed as important management objectives. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

Translocations have been recommended to reestablish, augment, and sustain genetic diversity in declining wildlife populations, including greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse). Characteristics of successful sage-grouse translocations include suitable contiguous sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), seasonal habitats surrounded by geomorphic barriers, a residual resident population, and pre-nesting releases. From 2009 to 2010, we studied vital rates of 60 translocated and 15 resident radio-marked female sage-grouse and their broods on Anthro Mountain, in the Ashley National Forest, northeastern Utah, USA to determine whether translocations could augment a declining meta-population that inhabited suitable breeding habitats in a small spatially isolated landscape. Survival rates, and nest and brood success estimates for the resident and translocated sage-grouse we studied were lower than reported range-wide averages. Nest success was similar for resident and translocated birds (survival estimate: 0.468, 95% CI = 0.288–0.648) and we calculated weak, yet positive relationships to grass height and grass cover. Daily survival rates for chicks 0–19 days of age for resident females in 2009 (0.904, CI = 0.875–0.940) and in 2010 (0.910, CI = 0.888–0.945) were higher than for chicks raised by translocated females (0.883, CI = 0.850–0.915; 0.892, CI = 0.856–0.936, respectively), although differences were small and all 95% confidence intervals had substantial overlap. In 2009 and 2010, daily survival rates for chick 20–50 days of age were slightly higher for chicks reared by resident females (0.980, CI = 0.963–0.994; 0.998, CI = 0.978–1.000, respectively) than chicks reared by translocated females (0.877, CI = 0.623–0.959; 0.988, CI = 0.945–0.993, respectively). Chick survival for both groups was weakly correlated with grass cover. Although most translocated birds remained on the study area (82%), the low overall survival rates we report indicate that managers need to consider factors affecting survival of adult females, nests, and chicks when planning future translocations to augment sage-grouse meta-populations that occupy spatially isolated and space-limited habitats. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

Global climate change and associated regional climate variability is impacting the phenology of many species, ultimately altering individual fitness and population dynamics. Yet, few studies have considered the effects of pertinent seasonal climate variability on phenology and fitness. Hibernators may be particularly susceptible to changes in seasonal climate since they have a relatively short active season in which to reproduce and gain enough mass to survive the following winter. To understand whether and how seasonal climate variability may be affecting hibernator fitness, we estimated survival from historical (1964–1968) and contemporary (2014–2017) mark–recapture data collected from the same population of Uinta ground squirrels (UGS, Urocitellus armatus), a hibernator endemic to the western United States. Despite a locally warming climate, the phenology of UGS did not change over time, yet season‐specific climate variables were important in regulating survival rates. Specifically, older age classes experienced lower survival when winters or the following springs were warm, while juveniles benefited from warmer winter temperatures. Although metabolic costs decrease with decreasing temperature in the hibernacula, arousal costs increase with decreasing temperature. Our results suggest that this trade‐off is experienced differently by immature and mature individuals. We also observed an increase in population density during that time period, suggesting resources are less limited today than they used to be. Cheatgrass is now dominating the study site and may provide a better food source to UGS than native plants did historically.

Upon arriving in a novel environment, invading populations are likely to be small and far from a stable stage structure. This unstable stage structure can cause transient (short-term) population dynamics to differ greatly from asymptotic (long-term) dynamics. Because the persistence of small populations depends heavily on population growth rate, short-term dynamics may strongly influence the viability of invading populations. We used published matrix population models to study the dynamics of small 'invading' populations for 105 plant species spanning a range of life histories, including species classified as both invasive and non-invasive. We simulated the matrix population models to estimate the effect of transient dynamics on population viability (i.e. potential invasiveness) after a hypothetical seed dispersal event into a novel environment. We then evaluated the predictive power of transient and long-term population growth rates to explain variation in population viability and identified the life-history correlates of population dynamics that best explained establishment success. Transient and long-term population growth rates were positively but independently correlated with population viability across species. Minimum transient density (minimum population density attained en route to a stable stage structure) was the best transient predictor of population viability. This suggests that avoidance of severe short-term population declines is more important during establishment than either the rate of decline or transient ability to increase in density following a decline. Despite a negative correlation between transient density and fecundity, species with high fecundity had disproportionately favourable transient dynamics and higher long-term population growth rates, resulting in higher population viability. Together, these results suggest that highly fecund species are better equipped to overcome the early effects of demographic stochasticity in the establishment phase than less fecund species and help explain the common empirical finding that species invasiveness is correlated with fecundity. Synthesis. Transient and long-term population dynamics are independent predictors of demographic performance that influence the viability of invading (i.e. small, unstable) populations subjected to strong effects of demographic stochasticity. Greater long-term population growth rates and disproportionately favourable transient dynamics may account for the commonly observed invasiveness of highly fecund species. Given the strong dependence of population viability on population growth and the wide range of transient responses among species, transient analysis may provide critical insights into the demographic correlates of biological invasion potential. Transient and long-term population dynamics are independent predictors of demographic performance that influence the viability of invading (i.e. small, unstable) populations subjected to strong effects of demographic stochasticity. Greater long-term population growth rates and disproportionately favourable transient dynamics may account for the commonly observed invasiveness of highly fecund species. Given the strong dependence of population viability on population growth and the wide range of transient responses among species, transient analysis may provide critical insights into the demographic correlates of biological invasion potential.

Summary Across a range of organisms, life-history transitions can be triggered by specific levels of seasonal cues, such as day length or temperature. This acts to regulate the life cycle relative to seasonal fluctuations, so that, for example, reproduction occurs when resources are most abundant. At an environmentally optimal cue level, individuals might be selected to respond in a similar way, and consequently abruptly increase population density through, for example, the production of offspring. However, if density dependence is operating, crowding will reduce individual fitness, and selection will then favour life-history transitions at different cue levels. We explore the eco-evolutionary dynamics that result from the interaction between density dependence and phenology using a life-history model of an annual plant and focus on the timing of seed germination within the year. We characterize the adaptive dynamics of the mean and variance across the year of germination timing. Our results indicate that, even in predictably varying environments, mean timing of germination is not evolutionarily stable, but may experience evolutionary branching if variance in germination timing is sufficiently constrained. Unpredictably varying environments extend contexts where this is the case. Synthesis. Even if there is a restricted time period in the year during which environmental conditions are most appropriate for germination, observed timing of germination might be very diverse. Density dependence selects for persistence of traits conferring variance in timing across the year and additionally can lead to evolutionary branching of mean germination timing, resulting in multiple coexisting genotypes corresponding to different mean germination timings.

Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β 0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β 1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (β fat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

Understanding the interplay between exploitation and natural mortality is essential to guiding sustainable conservation of wildlife. Exploitation of carnivores by humans has long been thought to result in compensatory reductions of natural mortality among survivors. If rates of human exploitation exceed natural mortality, however, such actions will ‘add’ to overall mortality and could imperil the sustainability of such actions. We applied competing risk analyses to P16 years of data for heavily harvested and semi-protected cougar populations in Utah to test the additive and compensatory mortality hypotheses, while accounting for parameter uncertainty. We additionally tested for presence of the two primary mechanisms by which compensatory mortality can arise: density dependence and individual heterogeneity in mortality risks. Despite an opportunity for compensation in the heavily harvested population, we could not reject the additive mortality hypothesis when uncertainty in parameter estimates was accounted for. In the semi-protected population, however, we detected evidence for partial compensation of increased anthropogenic exploitation via reductions in natural mortality. As may be common in carnivore studies, we found that ignoring uncertainty in estimates of cause-specific mortality systematically led to biased conclusions regarding additive and compensatory mortality hypotheses. Efforts should be made to address and minimize this uncertainty in demographic studies of carnivores in order to avoid flawed management recommendations. To attain the necessary sample sizes for making sound inference, this may require that the spatial extent of management units be extended for territorial species with large home-range requirements.