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Vegetable oil crops cover over half of global agricultural land and have varying environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Demand for coconut oil is expected to rise, but the global distribution of coconut is understudied, which hinders the discussion of its impacts. Here, we present the first 20-meter global coconut layer, produced using deep learning for semantic segmentation, specifically a U-Net model that was trained using annual Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 composites from 2020. Results confirmed the feasibility of using Sentinel-1 for mapping palm species that present full canopy closure. The overall accuracy was 99.10 ± 0.20 %, which was significantly higher than the no-information rate. The producer’s accuracy was 72.07 ± 22.83 % when only closed-canopy coconut was considered in the validation, but decreased to 12.34 ± 2.60 % when sparse and open-canopy coconut areas were considered, indicating that this planting context remains difficult to map with accuracy. We report a global coconut area of 12.31 ± 3.83 x 106 ha for dense open- and closed-canopy coconut, but the estimate is three times larger (36.72 ± 7.62 x 106 ha) when sparse coconut is included in the area estimation. This large area of sparse and dense open-canopy coconut is important as it indicates that production increases can likely be achieved on the existing lands allocated to coconut. The Philippines, Indonesia, and India account for most of the global coconut area, or about 82 % of the total mapped area. Our study provides the high-resolution, quantitative, and precise data necessary for assessing the relationships between vegetable oil production and the synergies and trade-offs between various sustainable development goal indicators. The global coconut layer is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7453178 (Descals, 2022).

Arctic fires can release large amounts of carbon from permafrost peatlands. Satellite observations reveal that fires burned ~4.7 million hectares in 2019 and 2020, accounting for 44% of the total burned area in the Siberian Arctic for the entire 1982–2020 period. The summer of 2020 was the warmest in four decades, with fires burning an unprecedentedly large area of carbon-rich soils. We show that factors of fire associated with temperature have increased in recent decades and identified a near-exponential relationship between these factors and annual burned area. Large fires in the Arctic are likely to recur with climatic warming before mid-century, because the temperature trend is reaching a threshold in which small increases in temperature are associated with exponential increases in the area burned., This work was funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) of the government of Japan and the Center for International Forestry Research (“CIFOR”), through the project “Transitions to Climate Resilient Landscapes: Reducing and Mitigating Boreal and Tropical Forest Fires to Promote Sustainable Rural Livelihoods.” We acknowledge funds from the Spanish Government grant PID2019-110521GB-I00, the Fundación Ramón Areces grant CIVP20A6621, and the Catalan Government grant SGR 2017-1005.

Much concern about tropical deforestation focuses on oil palm plantations, but their impacts remain poorly quantified. Using nation-wide interpretation of satellite imagery, and sample-based error calibration, we estimated the impact of large-scale (industrial) and smallholder oil palm plantations on natural old-growth (“primary”) forests from 2001 to 2019 in Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer. Over nineteen years, the area mapped under oil palm doubled, reaching 16.24 Mha in 2019 (64% industrial; 36% smallholder), more than the official estimates of 14.72 Mha. The forest area declined by 11% (9.79 Mha), including 32% (3.09 Mha) ultimately converted into oil palm, and 29% (2.85 Mha) cleared and converted in the same year. Industrial plantations replaced more forest than detected smallholder plantings (2.13 Mha vs 0.72 Mha). New plantations peaked in 2009 and 2012 and declined thereafter. Expansion of industrial plantations and forest loss were correlated with palm oil prices. A price decline of 1% was associated with a 1.08% decrease in new industrial plantations and with a 0.68% decrease of forest loss. Deforestation fell below pre-2004 levels in 2017–2019 providing an opportunity to focus on sustainable management. As the price of palm oil has doubled since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, effective regulation is key to minimising future forest conversion.

West Papua’s Bintuni Bay is Indonesia’s largest contiguous mangrove block, only second to the world’s largest mangrove in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh. As almost 40% of these mangroves are designated production forest, we assessed the effects of commercial logging on forest structure, biomass recovery, and soil carbon stocks and burial in five-year intervals, up to 25 years post-harvest. Through remote sensing and field surveys, we found that canopy structure and species diversity were gradually enhanced following biomass recovery. Carbon pools preserved in soil were supported by similar rates of carbon burial before and after logging. Our results show that mangrove forest management maintained between 70 and 75% of the total ecosystem carbon stocks, and 15–20% returned to the ecosystem after 15–25 years. This analysis suggests that mangroves managed through selective logging provide an opportunity for coastal nature-based climate solutions, while provisioning other ecosystem services, including wood and wood products.

Many nations are challenged by landscape fires. A confident knowledge of the area and distribution of burning is crucial to monitor these fires and to assess how they might best be reduced. Given the differences that arise using different detection approaches, and the uncertainties surrounding burned-area estimates, their relative merits require evaluation. Here we propose, illustrate, and examine one promising approach for Indonesia where recurring forest and peatland fires have become an international crisis. Drawing on Sentinel-2 satellite time-series analysis, we present and validate new 2019 burned-area estimates for Indonesia. The corresponding burned-area map is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4551243 (Gaveau et al., 2021a). We show that >3.11 million hectares (Mha) burned in 2019. This burned-area extent is double the Landsat-derived official estimate of 1.64 Mha from the Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry and 50 % more that the MODIS MCD64A1 burned-area estimate of 2.03 Mha. Though we observed proportionally less peatland burning (31 % vs. 39 % and 40 % for the official and MCD64A1 products, respectively), in absolute terms we still observed a greater area of peatland affected (0.96 Mha) than the official estimate (0.64 Mha). This new burned-area dataset has greater reliability than these alternatives, attaining a user accuracy of 97.9 % (CI: 97.1 %–98.8 %) compared to 95.1 % (CI: 93.5 %–96.7 %) and 76 % (CI: 73.3 %–78.7 %), respectively. It omits fewer burned areas, particularly smaller- ( ha) to intermediate-sized (100–1000 ha) burns, attaining a producer accuracy of 75.6 % (CI: 68.3 %–83.0 %) compared to 49.5 % (CI: 42.5 %–56.6 %) and 53.1 % (CI: 45.8 %–60.5 %), respectively. The frequency–area distribution of the Sentinel-2 burn scars follows the apparent fractal-like power law or Pareto pattern often reported in other fire studies, suggesting good detection over several magnitudes of scale. Our relatively accurate estimates have important implications for carbon-emission calculations from forest and peatland fires in Indonesia.

The carbon-dense peatlands of Indonesia are a landscape of global importance undergoing rapid land-use change. Here, peat drained for agricultural expansion increases the risk of large-scale uncontrolled fires. Several solutions to this complex environmental, humanitarian and economic crisis have been proposed, such as forest protection measures and agricultural support. However, numerous programmes have largely failed. Bundles of interventions are proposed as promising strategies in integrated approaches, but what policy interventions to combine and how to align such bundles to local conditions remains unclear. We evaluate the impact of two types of interventions and of their combinations, in reducing fire occurrence through driving behavioural change: incentives (i.e. rewards that are conditional on environmental performance), and deterrents (e.g. sanction, soliciting concerns for health). We look at the impact of these interventions in 10 villages with varying landscape and fire-risk contexts in Sumatra, Indonesia. A private-led implementation of a standardised programme allows us to study outcome variability through a natural experiment design. We conduct a systematic cross-case comparison to identify the most effective combinations of interventions, using two-step qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and geospatial and socio-economic survey data (n = 303). We analysed the combined influence of proximate conditions (interventions, e.g. fear of sanction) and remote ones (context; e.g. extent of peat soil) on fire outcomes. We show how, depending on the level of risk in the pre-existing context, certain bundles of interventions are needed to succeed. We found that, despite the programme being framed as rewards-based, people were not responding to the reward alone. Rather sanctions and soliciting concern appeared central to fire prevention, raising important equity implications. Our results contribute to the emerging global interest in peat fire mitigation, and the rapidly developing literature on PES performance.

The rich forests of Indonesian New Guinea are understudied and threatened. We used satellite data to examine annual forest loss, road development and plantation expansion from 2001 to 2019, then developed a model to predict future deforestation. No previous studies have attempted such a detailed assessment of past and future deforestation. In 2019, 34.29 million hectares (Mha), or 83% of Indonesian New Guinea, supported old-growth forest. Over nineteen years, 2% (0.75 Mha) were cleared: 45% (0.34 Mha) converted to industrial plantations, roads, mine tailings, or other uses near cities; 55% (0.41 Mha) cleared by transient processes including selective natural timber extraction, inland water bodies-related processes, fires, and shifting agriculture. Industrial plantations expanded by 0.23 Mha, with the majority (0.21 Mha; 28% of forest loss) replacing forests and reaching 0.28 Mha in 2019 (97% oil palm; 3% pulpwood). The Trans-Papua Highway, a ~4000 km national investment project, increased by 1554 km. Positive correlations between highway and plantations expansion indicate these are linked processes. Plantations and roads expanded rapidly after 2011, peaked in 2015/16, and declined thereafter. Indonesian government allocated 2.62 Mha of land for the development of industrial plantations (90% oil palm 10% pulpwood) of which 74% (1.95 Mha) remained forest in 2019. A spatial model predicts that an additional 4.5 Mha of forest could be cleared by 2036 if Indonesian New Guinea follows similar relationships to Indonesian Borneo. We highlight the opportunities for policy reform and the importance of working with indigenous communities, local leaders, and provincial government to protect the biological and cultural richness still embodied in this remarkable region.

Delivering the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires balancing demands on land between agriculture (SDG 2) and biodiversity (SDG 15). The production of vegetable oils, and in particular palm oil, illustrates these competing demands and trade-offs. Palm oil accounts for 40%1 of the current global annual demand for vegetable oil as food, animal feed, and fuel (210 million tons2 (Mt)), but planted oil palm covers less than 5-5.5%3 of total global oil crop area (ca. 425 Mha)4 , due to oil palm’s relatively high yields5. Recent oil palm expansion in forested regions of Borneo, Sumatra, and the Malay Peninsula, where >90% of global palm oil is produced, has led to substantial concern around oil palm’s role in deforestation. Oil palm expansion’s direct contribution to regional tropical deforestation varies widely, ranging from 3% in West Africa to 47% in Malaysia. Oil palm is also implicated in peatland draining and burning in Southeast Asia. Documented negative environmental impacts from such expansion include biodiversity declines, greenhouse gas emissions, and air pollution. However, oil palm generally produces more oil per area than other oil crops, is often economically viable in sites unsuitable for most other crops, and generates considerable wealth for at least some actors. Global demand for vegetable oils is projected to increase by 46% by 2050. Meeting this demand through additional expansion of oil palm versus other vegetable oil crops will lead to substantial differential effects on biodiversity, food security, climate change, land degradation, and livelihoods. Our review highlights that, although substantial gaps remain in our understanding of the relationship between the environmental, socio-cultural and economic impacts of oil palm, and the scope, stringency and effectiveness of initiatives to address these, there has been little research into the impacts and trade-offs of other vegetable oil crops. Greater research attention needs to be given to investigating the impacts of palm oil production compared to alternatives for the trade-offs to be assessed at a global scale.\ud Over the past 25 years, global oil crops have expanded rapidly, with major impacts on land use. The land used for growing oil crops grew from 170 million ha (Mha) in 1961 to 425 Mha in 2017 or ~30% of all cropland world-wide. Oil palm, soy, and rapeseed together account for >80% of all vegetable oil production with cotton, groundnuts, sunflower, olive, and coconut comprising most of the remainder (Table 1, Figure 1). These crops, including soy (125 Mha planted area) and maize (197 Mha planted area), are also used as animal feed and other products.\ud Oil palm is the most rapidly expanding oil crop. This palm originates from equatorial Africa where it has been cultivated for millennia, but it is now widely grown in Southeast Asia. Between 2008 and 2017, oil palm expanded globally at an average rate of 0.7 Mha per year, and palm oil is the leading and cheapest edible oil in much of Asia and Africa. While it has been estimated that palm oil is an ingredient in 43% of products found in British supermarkets, we lack comparable studies for the prevalence of other oils.\ud As a wild plant, the oil palm is a colonising species that establishes in open areas. Cultivated palms are commonly planted as monocultures, although the tree is also used in mixed, small-scale and agroforestry settings. To maximize photosynthetic capacity and fruit yields, oil palm requires a warm and wet climate, high solar radiation, and high humidity. It is thus most productive in the humid tropics, while other oil crops, except coconut, grow primarily in subtropical and temperate regions (Table 1). Moreover, because oil palm tolerates many soils including deep peat and sandy substrates, it is often profitable in locations where few other commodity crops are viable. The highest yields from planted oil palm have been reported in Southeast Asia5 . Yields are generally lower in Africa and the Neotropics, likely reflecting differences in climatic conditions including humidity and cloud cover, as well as management, occurrence of pests and diseases, and planting stock.\ud Palm oil is controversial due to its social and environmental impacts and opportunities. Loss of natural habitats, reduction in woody biomass, and peatland drainage that occur during site preparation are the main direct environmental impacts from oil palm development. Such conversion typically reduces biodiversity and water quality and increases greenhouse gas emissions, and, when fire is used, smoke and haze. Industrial oil palm expansion by large multi-national and national companies is also often associated with social problems, such as land grabbing and conflicts, labour exploitation, social inequity16 and declines in village-level well-being. In producer countries, oil palm is a valued crop that brings economic development to regions with few alternative agricultural development options, and generates substantial average livelihood improvements when smallholder farmers adopt oil palm. Here we review the current understanding of the environmental impacts from oil palm cultivation and assess what we know about other oil crops in comparison. Our focus is on biodiversity implications and the environmental aspects of sustainability, and we acknowledge the importance of considering these alongside socio-cultural, political, and economic outcomes.

Around 16 Mha of land is estimated to be under oil palm agriculture in insular Southeast Asia. There is a growing need to verify that palm oil is produced without causing negative environmental effects. Monitoring changes in the extent and condition of oil palm plantations by remote sensing is the first necessary step. The changing appearance of oil palm plantations as they age and the varying types (industrial and small-holder) of oil palm cultivation renders this monitoring task difficult. In this study we assess the potential of visual and automated mapping methods for regional-level oil palm monitoring by comparing the results of two recent large-scale mapping efforts in Borneo Island, shared by Indonesia and Malaysia. Large differences were found between visual and automated methods, mainly related to the concept of land use versus land cover. Automated oil palm mapping produced 35% smaller oil palm extent than visual mapping for plantation areas established before 2005 and was not able to detect young or newly established plantations. In total, the visual method detected 8.0 Mha of industrial oil palm plantation area, within which the automated method detected merely 3.8 Mha of closed canopy oil palm, highlighting the crucial importance of visual mapping approaches for outlining boundaries of industrial oil palm plantations. However, the automated approach enabled estimation of the extent of (1) productive closed canopy oil palm area and other land-cover types within known industrial plantations and (2) closed canopy oil palm stands outside of known industrial plantations (0.6 Mha). These results advocate the combined use of visual and optical oil palm mapping approaches for comprehensive regional-level monitoring of oil palm plantations in insular Southeast Asia.

Conflict between large-scale oil-palm producers and local communities is widespread in palm-oil producer nations. With a potential doubling of oil-palm cultivation in Indonesia in the next ten years it is likely that conflicts between the palm-oil industry and communities will increase. We develop and apply a novel method for understanding spatial patterns of oil-palm related conflicts. We use a unique set of conflict data derived through systematic searches of online data sources and local newspaper reports describing recent oil-palm land-use related conflicts for Indonesian Borneo, and combine these data with 43 spatial environmental and social variables using boosted regression tree modelling. Reports identified 187 villages had reported conflict with oil-palm companies. Spatial patterns varied with different types of conflict. Forest-dependent communities were more likely to strongly oppose oil-palm establishment because of their negative perception of oil-palm development on the environment and their own livelihoods. Conflicts regarding land boundary disputes, illegal operations by companies, perceived lack of consultation, compensation and broken promises by companies were more associated with communities that have lower reliance on forests for livelihoods, or are located in regions that have undergone or are undergoing forest transformation to oil-palm or industrial-tree-plantations. A better understanding of the characteristics of communities and areas where different types of conflicts have occurred is a fundamental step in generating hypotheses about why certain types of conflict occur in certain locations. Insights from such research can help inform land use policy, planning and management to achieve more sustainable and equitable development. Our results can also assist certification bodies (e.g. the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil-RSPO, and the Indonesian and Malaysian versions, ISPO and MSPO), non-government-organisations, government agencies and other stakeholders to more effectively target mediation efforts to reduce the potential for conflict arising in the future.

The links between plantation expansion and deforestation in Borneo are debated. We used satellite imagery to map annual loss of old‐growth forests, expansion of industrial plantations (oil palm and pulpwood), and their overlap in Borneo from 2001 to 2017. In 17 years, forest area declined by 14% (6.04 Mha), including 3.06 Mha of forest ultimately converted into industrial plantations. Plantations expanded by 170% (6.20 Mha: 88% oil palm; 12% pulpwood). Most forests converted to plantations were cleared and planted in the same year (92%; 2.83 Mha). Annual forest loss generally increased before peaking in 2016 (0.61 Mha) and declining sharply in 2017 (0.25 Mha). After peaks in 2009 and 2012, plantation expansion and associated forest conversion have been declining in Indonesia and Malaysia. Annual plantation expansion is positively correlated with annual forest loss in both countries. The correlation vanishes when we consider plantation expansion versus forests that are cleared but not converted to plantations. The price of crude palm oil is positively correlated with plantation expansion in the following year in Indonesian (not Malaysian) Borneo. Low palm oil prices, wet conditions, and improved fire prevention all likely contributed to reduced 2017 deforestation. Oversight of company conduct requires transparent concession ownership.

Worldwide many businesses have recently pledged to sourcing agricultural and timber products exclusively from deforestation and fire-free supply chains. Geoinvestigations—monitoring the activities of plantation companies using satellites and concession maps—are now applied to identify which companies breach their commitments and regulations. We investigate the limitations of geoinvestigations by analyzing land-use and fire in and around 163 Indonesian concessions of oil-palm and pulpwood, where recurring forest and peatland fires are a national and international concern. We reveal a mismatch between de jure and de facto land occupancy inside and outside concessions. Independent farmers are present in concessions while some companies expand outside concessions. Thus, both actors may be responsible for deforestation and fire inside and outside concessions. On peatland, fire can start outside and spread into concessions, while draining in concessions may promote fire outside. These dynamics make attribution of fire and deforestation in Indonesian concessions impossible without detailed field investigations. This study highlights the need to combine very high-resolution satellite data with extensive field investigations of de facto land ownership, claims and disputes inside and outside concessions. In Indonesia, such activities could fall under the One Map Policy, whose remit is to identify and resolve overlapping land claims.

The 2015–2016 strong El Niño event has had a dramatic impact on the amount of Indonesian biomass burning, with the El Niño-driven drought further desiccating the already-drier-than-normal landscapes that are the result of decades of peatland draining, widespread deforestation, anthropogenically driven forest degradation and previous large fire events. It is expected that the 2015–2016 Indonesian fires will have emitted globally significant quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere, as did previous El Niño-driven fires in the region. The form which the carbon released from the combustion of the vegetation and peat soils takes has a strong bearing on its atmospheric chemistry and climatological impacts. Typically, burning in tropical forests and especially in peatlands is expected to involve a much higher proportion of smouldering combustion than the more flaming-characterised fires that occur in fine-fuel-dominated environments such as grasslands, consequently producing significantly more CH4 (and CO) per unit of fuel burned. However, currently there have been no aircraft campaigns sampling Indonesian fire plumes, and very few ground-based field campaigns (none during El Niño), so our understanding of the large-scale chemical composition of these extremely significant fire plumes is surprisingly poor compared to, for example, those of southern Africa or the Amazon.Here, for the first time, we use satellite observations of CH4 and CO2 from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) made in large-scale plumes from the 2015 El Niño-driven Indonesian fires to probe aspects of their chemical composition. We demonstrate significant modifications in the concentration of these species in the regional atmosphere around Indonesia, due to the fire emissions.Using CO and fire radiative power (FRP) data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Service, we identify fire-affected GOSAT soundings and show that peaks in fire activity are followed by subsequent large increases in regional greenhouse gas concentrations. CH4 is particularly enhanced, due to the dominance of smouldering combustion in peatland fires, with CH4 total column values typically exceeding 35 ppb above those of background “clean air” soundings. By examining the CH4 and CO2 excess concentrations in the fire-affected GOSAT observations, we determine the CH4 to CO2 (CH4 ∕ CO2) fire emission ratio for the entire 2-month period of the most extreme burning (September–October 2015), and also for individual shorter periods where the fire activity temporarily peaks. We demonstrate that the overall CH4 to CO2 emission ratio (ER) for fires occurring in Indonesia over this time is 6.2 ppb ppm−1. This is higher than that found over both the Amazon (5.1 ppb ppm−1) and southern Africa (4.4 ppb ppm−1), consistent with the Indonesian fires being characterised by an increased amount of smouldering combustion due to the large amount of organic soil (peat) burning involved. We find the range of our satellite-derived Indonesian ERs (6.18–13.6 ppb ppm−1) to be relatively closely matched to that of a series of close-to-source, ground-based sampling measurements made on Kalimantan at the height of the fire event (7.53–19.67 ppb ppm−1), although typically the satellite-derived quantities are slightly lower on average. This seems likely because our field sampling mostly intersected smaller-scale peat-burning plumes, whereas the large-scale plumes intersected by the GOSAT Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation – Fourier Transform Spectrometer (TANSO-FTS) footprints would very likely come from burning that was occurring in a mixture of fuels that included peat, tropical forest and already-cleared areas of forest characterised by more fire-prone vegetation types than the natural rainforest biome (e.g. post-fire areas of ferns and scrubland, along with agricultural vegetation).The ability to determine large-scale ERs from satellite data allows the combustion behaviour of very large regions of burning to be characterised and understood in a way not possible with ground-based studies, and which can be logistically difficult and very costly to consider using aircraft observations. We therefore believe the method demonstrated here provides a further important tool for characterising biomass burning emissions, and that the GHG ERs derived for the first time for these large-scale Indonesian fire plumes during an El Niño event point to more routinely assessing spatiotemporal variations in biomass burning ERs using future satellite missions. These will have more complete spatial sampling than GOSAT and will enable the contributions of these fires to the regional atmospheric chemistry and climate to be better understood.

When development impacts a broad landscape and causes the loss of multiple ecosystem services, decisions about which of these impacts to offset must be made. We use industrial oil-palm developments in Kalimantan and quantify the potential for restoration to offset oil-palm impacts on carbon storage and biodiversity. We developed a unique backcasting approach combined with a spatial conservation prioritisation framework to identify priority areas for restoration offsetting. We calculated the past impacts of oil-palm development, quantified the future benefits of restoration for carbon storage and biodiversity over one oil-palm planting cycle of 25 years, and prioritised areas for restoration to balance the impacts and benefits for the least cost. We estimate that offsetting the carbon emissions attributable to the existing 4.6 Mha of industrial oil-palm plantation in Kalimantan is most cost-effectively achieved by restoring 0.4–1.6 Mha of degraded peatlands, including failed agricultural projects, at a cost of US$0.7–2.9 billion. On the other hand, offsetting biodiversity losses would require at least 4.7 Mha of degraded areas to be restored (equating to 8.7% of Kalimantan) at a cost of US$7.7 billion. We show that priority areas for offsetting biodiversity losses overlap poorly with those for compensating carbon emissions. Our analysis suggests that reconciling multiple impacts at landscape scales will necessitate difficult choices among contested socio-political preferences. Our findings also clarify the fundamental importance of conserving biodiversity-rich primary forests and peatlands in the tropics and the need to avoid converting these areas in the future.

Unsustainable exploitation of natural resources is increasingly affecting the highly biodiverse tropics [1, 2]. Although rapid developments in remote sensing technology have permitted more precise estimates of land-cover change over large spatial scales [3–5], our knowledge about the effects of these changes on wildlife is much more sparse [6, 7]. Here we use field survey data, predictive density distribution modeling, and remote sensing to investigate the impact of resource use and land-use changes on the density distribution of Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus). Our models indicate that between 1999 and 2015, half of the orangutan population was affected by logging, deforestation, or industrialized plantations. Although land clearance caused the most dramatic rates of decline, it accounted for only a small proportion of the total loss. A much larger number of orangutans were lost in selectively logged and primary forests, where rates of decline were less precipitous, but where far more orangutans are found. This suggests that further drivers, independent of land-use change, contribute to orangutan loss. This finding is consistent with studies reporting hunting as a major cause in orangutan decline [8–10]. Our predictions of orangutan abundance loss across Borneo suggest that the population decreased by more than 100,000 individuals, corroborating recent estimates of decline [11]. Practical solutions to prevent future orangutan decline can only be realized by addressing its complex causes in a holistic manner across political and societal sectors, such as in land-use planning, resource exploitation, infrastructure development, and education, and by increasing long-term sustainability [12]. Video Abstract: [Figure presented] Voigt et al. show the negative impact of natural resource use on the density distribution of Bornean orangutans. The habitat of half of the population was affected. Over 16 years, more than 100,000 individuals were lost. Decline rates were highest when habitat was removed. Absolute losses were largest in selectively logged and primary forests.

Aim: We demonstrate a robust approach for predicting and mapping threats and population trends of wildlife species, invaluable for understanding where to target conservation resources. We used the endangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) as our case study to facilitate and strengthen conservation efforts by the Indonesian government to stabilize populations by 2017. Location: Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. Methods: Local knowledge of threats to orangutan populations was gathered through questionnaire interviews in 531 villages (512 in Kalimantan) within known orangutan range. These data were integrated with 39 environmental/socio-economic spatial variables using boosted regression tree modelling to predict threat levels and population trends across Kalimantan and to identify key combinations of threats and trends that can help to direct appropriate conservation actions. Results: Nineteen percentage of villages surveyed in Kalimantan reported human-orangutan conflicts. High-predicted conflict likelihood was extensive, strongly associated with road density (very low or high) and temperature seasonality. Recent orangutan killings were reported in 23% of villages. High killing risk was highly associated with greater surrounding orangutan habitat and for villages more than 60 km from oil palm plantations. Killings by respondents were reported in 20% of villages with higher likelihoods associated with greater range in rainfall and temperature, and higher proportion of Christian believers. Orangutan populations were predicted to decline/become locally extinct across the majority of their range in Kalimantan over the next decade, with few regions predicted to support stable populations. Main conclusions: Human-orangutan conflicts and killings occur extensively in Kalimantan, with many populations at risk of decline or localized extinctions. Effective conservation actions are therefore urgently needed. Our approach better informs conservation managers in understanding the extent, spatial patterns and drivers of threats to endangered species such as the orangutan. This is essential to better design management strategies that can minimize or avert the species' decline.

The first International Peat Congress (IPC) held in the tropics – in Kuching (Malaysia) – brought together over 1000 international peatland scientists and industrial partners from across the world (“International Peat Congress with over 1000 participants!,” 2016). The congress covered all aspects of peatland ecosystems and their management, with a strong focus on the environmental, societal and economic challenges associated with contemporary large-scale agricultural conversion of tropical peat.

© 2017 The Author(s) Forest-driven water and energy cycles are poorly integrated into regional, national, continental and global decision-making on climate change adaptation, mitigation, land use and water management. This constrains humanity's ability to protect our planet's climate and life-sustaining functions. The substantial body of research we review reveals that forest, water and energy interactions provide the foundations for carbon storage, for cooling terrestrial surfaces and for distributing water resources. Forests and trees must be recognized as prime regulators within the water, energy and carbon cycles. If these functions are ignored, planners will be unable to assess, adapt to or mitigate the impacts of changing land cover and climate. Our call to action targets a reversal of paradigms, from a carbon-centric model to one that treats the hydrologic and climate-cooling effects of trees and forests as the first order of priority. For reasons of sustainability, carbon storage must remain a secondary, though valuable, by-product. The effects of tree cover on climate at local, regional and continental scales offer benefits that demand wider recognition. The forest- and tree-centered research insights we review and analyze provide a knowledge-base for improving plans, policies and actions. Our understanding of how trees and forests influence water, energy and carbon cycles has important implications, both for the structure of planning, management and governance institutions, as well as for how trees and forests might be used to improve sustainability, adaptation and mitigation efforts. publisher: Elsevier articletitle: Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world journaltitle: Global Environmental Change articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.01.002 content_type: article copyright: © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. ispartof: Global Environmental Change vol:43 pages:51-61 status: published

Tropical rainforests, naturally resistant to fire when intact, are increasingly vulnerable to burning due to ongoing forest perturbation and, possibly, climatic changes. Industrial-scale forest degradation and conversion are increasing fire occurrence, and interactions with climate anomalies such as El Nino induced droughts can magnify the extent and severity of fire activity. The influences of these factors on fire frequency in tropical forests has not been widely studied at large spatio-temporal scales at which feedbacks between fire reoccurrence and forest degradation may develop. Linkages between fire activity, industrial land use, and El Nino rainfall deficits are acute in Borneo, where the greatest tropical fire events in recorded history have apparently occurred in recent decades. Here we investigate how fire frequency in Borneo has been influenced by industrial-scale agricultural development and logging during El Nino periods by integrating long-term satellite observations between 1982 and 2010 – a period encompassing the onset, development, and consolidation of its Borneo’s industrial forestry and agricultural operations as well as the full diversity of El Nino events. We record changes in fire frequency over this period by deriving the longest and most comprehensive spatio-temporal record of fire activity across Borneo using AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC) satellite data. Monthly fire frequency was derived from these data and modelled at 0.04° resolution via a random-forest model, which explained 56% of the monthly variation as a function of oil palm and timber plantation extent and proximity, logging intensity and proximity, human settlement, climate, forest and peatland condition, and time, observed using Landsat and similar satellite data. Oil-palm extent increased fire frequency until covering 20% of a grid cell, signalling the significant influence of early stages of plantation establishment. Heighted fire frequency was particularly acute within 10 km of oil palm, where both expanding plantation and smallholder agriculture are believed to be contributing factors. Fire frequency increased abruptly and dramatically when rainfall fell below 200 mm month-1, especially as landscape perturbation increased (indicated by vegetation index data). Logging intensity had a negligible influence on fire frequency, including on peatlands, suggesting a more complex response of logged forest to burning than appreciated. Over time, the epicentres of high-frequency fires expanded from East Kalimantan (1980’s) to Central and West Kalimantan (1990’s), coincidentally but apparently slightly preceding oil-palm expansion, and high-frequency fires then waned in East Kalimantan and occurred only in Central and West Kalimantan (2000’s). After accounting for land-cover changes and climate, our model under-estimates observed fire frequency during ca. 1990–2002 and over-estimates it thereafter, suggesting that a multi-decadal shift to industrial forest conversion and forest landscapes may have diminished the propensity for high-frequency fires in much of this globally significant tropical region since ca. 2000.

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a contagious, severe and often lethal form of hemorrhagic fever in humans. The association of EVD outbreaks with forest clearance has been suggested previously but many aspects remained uncharacterized. We used remote sensing techniques to investigate the association between deforestation in time and space, with EVD outbreaks in Central and West Africa. Favorability modeling, centered on 27 EVD outbreak sites and 280 comparable control sites, revealed that outbreaks located along the limits of the rainforest biome were significantly associated with forest losses within the previous 2 years. This association was strongest for closed forests (>83%), both intact and disturbed, of a range of tree heights (5–>19 m). Our results suggest that the increased probability of an EVD outbreak occurring in a site is linked to recent deforestation events, and that preventing the loss of forests could reduce the likelihood of future outbreaks.

The biodiversity hotspots are 35 biogeographical regions that have both exceptional endemism and extreme threats to their vegetation integrity, and as such are global conservation priorities. Nonetheless, prior estimates of natural intact vegetation (NIV) in the hotspots are generally imprecise, indirect, coarse, and/or dated. Using moderate- and high-resolution satellite imagery as well as maps of roads, settlements, and fires, we estimate the current extent of NIV for the hotspots. Our analysis indicates that hotspots retain 14.9% of their total area as NIV (�3,546,975 km 2 ). Most hotspots have much less NIV than previously estimated, with half now having 610% NIV by area, a threshold beneath which mean NIV patch area declines precipitously below 1000 ha. Hotspots with the greatest previous NIV estimates suffered the greatest apparent losses. The paucity of NIV is most pronounced in biomes dominated by dry forests, open woodlands, and grasslands, reflecting their historic affinities with agriculture, such that NIV tends to concentrate in select biomes. Low and declining levels of NIV in the hotspots underscore the need for an urgent focus of limited conservation resources on these biologically crucial regions.

Spatially explicit information on local perceptions of ecosystem services is needed to inform land use planning within rapidly changing landscapes. In this paper we spatially modelled local people's use and perceptions of benefits from forest ecosystem services in Borneo, from interviews of 1837 people in 185 villages. Questions related to provisioning, cultural/spiritual, regulating and supporting ecosystem services derived from forest, and attitudes towards forest conversion. We used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to combine interview data with social and environmental predictors to understand spatial variation of perceptions across Borneo. Our results show that people use a variety of products from intact and highly degraded forests. Perceptions of benefits from forests were strongest: in human-altered forest landscapes for cultural and spiritual benefits; in human-altered and intact forests landscapes for health benefits; intact forest for direct health benefits, such as medicinal plants; and in regions with little forest and extensive plantations, for environmental benefits, such as climatic impacts from deforestation. Forest clearing for small scale agriculture was predicted to be widely supported yet less so for large-scale agriculture. Understanding perceptions of rural communities in dynamic, multi-use landscapes is important where people are often directly affected by the decline in ecosystem services.

Most governments, international institutions, and conservation bodies consider that establishing protected areas represents the best strategy for reducing tropical deforestation and conserving the intrinsic biodiversity of tropical forests. This chapter considers to what extent this is true for the conservation of arboreal primates' favoured habitats, that is natural old-growth forests, using Indonesia as a case study. The major threats to Indonesian terrestrial protected areas are reviewed and the challenges that must be overcome if these threats are to be effectively countered are described; it is proposed to combine protected areas with natural forest timber concessions to sustain larger forest landscapes than would be possible via protected areas alone.

Balancing economic development with international commitments to protect biodiversity is a global challenge. Achieving this balance requires an understanding of the possible consequences of alternative future scenarios for a range of stakeholders. We employ an integrated economic and environmental planning approach to evaluate four alternative futures for the mega-diverse island of Borneo. We show what could be achieved if the three national jurisdictions of Borneo coordinate efforts to achieve their public policy targets and allow a partial reallocation of planned land uses. We reveal the potential for Borneo to simultaneously retain ∼50% of its land as forests, protect adequate habitat for the Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) and Bornean elephant (Elephas maximus borneensis), and achieve an opportunity cost saving of over US$43 billion. Such coordination would depend on enhanced information sharing and reforms to land-use planning, which could be supported by the increasingly international nature of economies and conservation efforts., Balancing biological conservation with economic development is a challenge for policymakers. Analysing a range of possible future scenarios, Runting et al, show that coordinated planning would allow the island of Borneo to simultaneously retain forested land, protect species and meet economic goals.

New plantations can either cause deforestation by replacing natural forests or avoid this by using previously cleared areas. The extent of these two situations is contested in tropical biodiversity hotspots where objective data are limited. Here, we explore delays between deforestation and the establishment of industrial tree plantations on Borneo using satellite imagery. Between 1973 and 2015 an estimated 18.7 Mha of Borneo’s old-growth forest were cleared (14.4 Mha and 4.2 Mha in Indonesian and Malaysian Borneo). Industrial plantations expanded by 9.1 Mha (7.8 Mha oil-palm; 1.3 Mha pulpwood). Approximately 7.0 Mha of the total plantation area in 2015 (9.2 Mha) were old-growth forest in 1973, of which 4.5–4.8 Mha (24–26% of Borneo-wide deforestation) were planted within five years of forest clearance (3.7–3.9 Mha oil-palm; 0.8–0.9 Mha pulpwood). This rapid within-five-year conversion has been greater in Malaysia than in Indonesia (57–60% versus 15–16%). In Indonesia, a higher proportion of oil-palm plantations was developed on already cleared degraded lands (a legacy of recurrent forest fires). However, rapid conversion of Indonesian forests to industrial plantations has increased steeply since 2005. We conclude that plantation industries have been the principle driver of deforestation in Malaysian Borneo over the last four decades. In contrast, their role in deforestation in Indonesian Borneo was less marked, but has been growing recently. We note caveats in interpreting these results and highlight the need for greater accountability in plantation development.

In September and October 2015 widespread forest and peatland fires burned over large parts of maritime southeast Asia, most notably Indonesia, releasing large amounts of terrestrially-stored carbon into the atmosphere, primarily in the form of CO2, CO and CH4. With a mean emission rate of 11.3 Tg CO2 per day during Sept-Oct 2015, emissions from these fires exceeded the fossil fuel CO2 release rate of the European Union (EU28) (8.9 Tg CO2 per day). Although seasonal fires are a frequent occurrence in the human modified landscapes found in Indonesia, the extent of the 2015 fires was greatly inflated by an extended drought period associated with a strong El Niño. We estimate carbon emissions from the 2015 fires to be the largest seen in maritime southeast Asia since those associated with the record breaking El Niño of 1997. Compared to that event, a much better constrained regional total carbon emission estimate can be made for the 2015 fires through the use of present-day satellite observations of the fire’s radiative power output and atmospheric CO concentrations, processed using the modelling and assimilation framework of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and combined with unique in situ smoke measurements made on Kalimantan.

Several studies suggest that protected areas conserve forests because deforestation rates are lower inside than outside protected area boundaries. Such benefits may be overestimated when deforestation rates within protected areas are contrasted with rates in lands where forest conversion is sanctioned. Here, we reexamine protected area performance by disentangling the effects of land use regulations surrounding the 110,000 km 2 protected area network in Sumatra, Indonesia.

The Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park in southern Sumatra (Indonesia) has been on the UNESCO list of World Heritage Sites since 2004. Home to tigers, elephants, and rare Sumatran rhinos, the Park is also home to numerous squatters since the early 1970s. Part of the Park was restored after forcible evictions in the 1980s. However, since the end of General Suharto's authoritarian rule in 1998, the number of squatters has been on the increase. This paper provides for the first time a reliable estimation of the number of people encroaching in the Park and presents a profile of the various kinds of squatters living in and around the Park. It shows that all encroachments are not alike, nor are the squatters. Poor landless migrants side with opportunists taking advantage of weak law enforcement, while local politicians try to build a constituency by backing illegal activities in the Park. As a consequence, any action to salvage the Park will have to take into account the complexity of the political ecology, policy environment, and socio-economic nature of each encroachment.

Aim This study determines whether the establishment of tropical protected areas (PAs) has led to a reduction in deforestation within their boundaries or whether deforestation has been displaced to adjacent unprotected areas: a process termed neighbourhood leakage. Location Sumatra, Indonesia. Methods We processed and analysed 98 corresponding LANDSAT satellite images with a c. 800 m2 resolution to map deforestation from 1990 to 2000 across 440,000 km2 on the main island of Sumatra and the smaller island of Siberut. We compared deforestation rates across three categories of land: (1) within PAs; (2) in adjacent unprotected land lying with 10 km of PA boundaries; and (3) within the wider unprotected landscape. We used the statistical method of propensity score matching to predict the deforestation that would have been observed had there been no PAs and to control for the generally remote locations in which Sumatran PAs were established. Results During the period 1990–2000 deforestation rates were found to be lower inside PAs than in adjacent unprotected areas or in the wider landscape. Deforestation rates were also found to be lower in adjacent unprotected areas than in the wider landscape. Main conclusions Sumatran PAs have lower deforestation rates than unprotected areas. Furthermore, a reduction in deforestation rates inside Sumatran PAs has promoted protection, rather than deforestation, in adjacent unprotected land lying within 10 km of PA boundaries. Despite this positive evaluation, deforestation and logging have not halted within the boundaries of Sumatran PAs. Therefore the long-term viability of Sumatran forests remains open to question.

Much of the forest cover in southern Sumatra, Indonesia has been cleared since the early 1970s, but accurate estimates of the scales and rates of loss are lacking. This study combined high-quality remote sensing applications and extensive field surveys, both to provide an accurate picture of deforestation patterns across an area of 1.17 million ha in southwest Sumatra and to assess whether southwest Sumatra’s Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park (BBSNP) has halted forest loss and logging, and promoted re-growth, since its creation in 1984. Of the single large (692,850 ha) contiguous area of forest standing across our study area in 1972, nearly half (344,409 ha) has been cleared from 1972 to 2002, at an average rate per original forest cover of 1.69% y−1. In Gunung Raya Wildlife Sanctuary (GRWS) and Hydrological Reserves (HR), forests have shrunk by 28,696 ha and 113,105 ha, at an average rate of 2.74% y−1 and 2.13% y−1, respectively. In contrast, forests in BBSNP have reduced four times more slowly than those in GRWS and HR, and have shrunk by 57,344 ha, at an average rate of 0.64% y−1. Nevertheless, the forests within BBSNP were cleared almost as rapidly during the post-establishment, as during the pre-establishment, period (0.65% y−1 and 0.63% y−1, respectively) despite the introduction of protection measures during the post-establishment period, following the government’s pledge to expand and protect Indonesia’s network of Protected Areas (PAs) at the 1982 Bali World Parks Congress. While these protection measures failed to slow down rates of forest loss caused by agricultural encroachments they reduced large-scale mechanised logging by a factor of 4.2 and stabilized some 8610 ha of agricultural encroachments, enabling forest re-growth.

Habitat loss and climate change pose a double jeopardy for many threatened taxa, making the identification of optimal\ud habitat for the future a conservation priority. Using a case study of the endangered Bornean orang-utan, we identify\ud environmental refuges by integrating bioclimatic models with projected deforestation and oil-palm agriculture\ud suitability from the 1950s to 2080s. We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm with information on habitat needs to\ud predict suitable habitat for the present day and 1950s. We then projected to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in models\ud incorporating only land-cover change, climate change or both processes combined. For future climate, we incorporated\ud projections from four model and emission scenario combinations. For future land cover, we developed spatial\ud deforestation predictions from 10 years of satellite data. Refuges were delineated as suitable forested habitats identified\ud by all models that were also unsuitable for oil palm – a major threat to tropical biodiversity. Our analyses indicate\ud that in 2010 up to 260 000 km2 of Borneo was suitable habitat within the core orang-utan range; an 18–24%\ud reduction since the 1950s. Land-cover models predicted further decline of 15–30% by the 2080s. Although habitat\ud extent under future climate conditions varied among projections, there was majority consensus, particularly in northeastern\ud and western regions. Across projections habitat loss due to climate change alone averaged 63% by 2080, but\ud 74% when also considering land-cover change. Refuge areas amounted to 2000–42 000 km2 depending on thresholds\ud used, with 900–17 000 km2 outside the current species range. We demonstrate that efforts to halt deforestation could\ud mediate some orang-utan habitat loss, but further decline of the most suitable areas is to be expected given projected\ud changes to climate. Protected refuge areas could therefore become increasingly important for ongoing translocation\ud efforts. We present an approach to help identify such areas for highly threatened species given environmental\ud changes expected this century.

Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010���2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and subsequent health effects.

The UNFCCC and interest in the source of the missing terrestrial carbon sink are prompting research and development into methods for carbon accounting in forest ecosystems. Here we present a canopy height quantile-based approach for quantifying above ground carbon content (AGCC) in a temperate deciduous woodland, by means of a discrete-return, small-footprint airborne LiDAR. Fieldwork was conducted in Monks Wood National Nature Reserve UK to estimate the AGCC of five stands from forest mensuration and allometric relations. In parallel, a digital canopy height model (DCHM) and a digital terrain model (DTM) were derived from elevation measurements obtained by means of an Optech Airborne Laser Terrain Mapper 1210. A quantile-based approach was adopted to select a representative statistic of height distributions per plot. A forestry yield model was selected as a basis to estimate stemwood volume per plot from these heights metrics. Agreement of r=0.74 at the plot level was achieved between ground-based AGCC estimates and those derived from the DCHM. Using a 20×20 m grids superposed to the DCHM, the AGCC was estimated at the stand level and at the woodland level. At the stand level, the agreement between the plot data upscaled in proportion to area and the LiDAR estimates was r=0.85. At the woodland level, LiDAR estimates were nearly 24% lower than those from the upscaled plot data. This suggests that field-based approaches alone may not be adequate for carbon accounting in heterogeneous forests. Conversely, the LiDAR 20×20 m grid approach has an enhanced capability of monitoring the natural variability of AGCC across the woodland.

There is a well-reported tendency for canopy height to be underestimated in small-footprint airborne laser scanning (ALS) data of coniferous woodland. This is commonly explained by a failure to record treetops because of insufficient ALS sampling density. This study examines the accuracy of canopy height estimates retrieved from small-footprint ALS data of broadleaf woodland. A novel field sampling method was adopted to collect reference canopy upper surface measurements of known horizontal (x, y) and vertical (z) position that had sub-metre accuracy. By investigating the z differences between ALS and reference canopy measurements with matching x and y locations, the effects of ALS sampling density were removed from the analysis. For raw point-sample ALS data, a negative bias of 0.91 m for sample shrub canopies and 1.27 m for sample tree canopies was observed. These results suggest that for broadleaf woodland, a small-footprint laser pulse hitting the upper surface of a canopy often advances into the cano...

In the current context of global deforestation and global warming, a wide range of organisations, with local to international remits, need estimates of forest biomass to assess the state of the World’s forests and their rate of change. The task would be impossible without space-based Earth observation, which allows the rapid generation of extensive data sets describing land surface properties. It is the task of remote sensing scientists to interpret these data into a meaningful source of forest information. Here, a fast and easily automated method for classifying boreal forests in terms of growing stock volume is presented. The work was conducted as part of the SIBERIA project, which has resulted in the recent publication of a map of forest growing stock volume covering 900 000 km2 in Central Siberia. The paper describes the use of satellite-based radar coherence to differentiate categories of forest growing stock volume, the application of this method to classify and map Central Siberian forests, and the characterisation of the forest classes to help in the interpretation. A list of acronyms and abbreviations used in the text is provided in Appendix A .

Summary 1Vegetation height across a 157-ha deciduous woodland was estimated using an airborne remote-sensing technique, airborne laser scanning (ALS), and the data obtained were used to produce a three-dimensional map of the canopy surface of the entire wood. 2Field-based estimates of a tree canopy density index were compared with mean vegetation height calculated from the ALS data for sample areas of 54 × 54 m2 centred on each of 36 nestboxes within the wood. Canopy density index increased with mean vegetation height, such that height explained 86% of the variation in the density index. Thus remote-sensed height could be used as a surrogate for the field-based estimates. 3Mean chick masses (mass being used as a measure of habitat quality) for Great Tits (Parus major L.) and Blue Tits (P. caeruleus L.) using the boxes were also examined in relation to the ALS mean vegetation height for the same sample areas. 4For Blue Tits, mean chick mass at 11 days of age increased with vegetation height around the nestbox, but for Great Tits, the relationship was negative. Possible reasons for this difference are discussed, but the results should be treated with caution because sample sizes were small. 5The application of ALS in woodland ecology is discussed.

Balancing economic development with international commitments to protect biodiversity is a global challenge. Achieving this balance requires an understanding of the possible consequences of alternative future scenarios for a range of stakeholders. We employ an integrated economic and environmental planning approach to evaluate four alternative futures for the mega-diverse island of Borneo. We show what could be achieved if the three national jurisdictions of Borneo coordinate efforts to achieve their public policy targets and allow a partial reallocation of planned land uses. We reveal the potential for Borneo to simultaneously retain ∼50% of its land as forests, protect adequate habitat for the Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) and Bornean elephant (Elephas maximus borneensis), and achieve an opportunity cost saving of over US$43 billion. Such coordination would depend on enhanced information sharing and reforms to land-use planning, which could be supported by the increasingly international nature of economies and conservation efforts.

International policy makers are currently exploring methodological matters associated with non-carbon benefits and joint mitigation and adaptation approaches as they relate to REDD+. Although few pilot projects are exploring these issues, emerging evidence shows how these approaches can be implemented on the ground. This analysis draws from the scientific literature on non-carbon benefits and joint mitigation and adaptation, evaluates recent submissions to the SBSTA on these issues, and intends to inform the negotiations on these approaches.

The native forests of Borneo have been impacted by selective logging, fire, and conversion to plantations at unprecedented scales since industrial-scale extractive industries began in the early 1970s. There is no island-wide documentation of forest clearance or logging since the 1970s. This creates an information gap for conservation planning, especially with regard to selectively logged forests that maintain high conservation potential. Analysing LANDSAT images, we estimate that 75.7% (558,060 km2) of Borneo's area (737,188 km2) was forested around 1973. Based upon a forest cover map for 2010 derived using ALOS-PALSAR and visually reviewing LANDSAT images, we estimate that the 1973 forest area had declined by 168,493 km2 (30.2%) in 2010. The highest losses were recorded in Sabah and Kalimantan with 39.5% and 30.7% of their total forest area in 1973 becoming non-forest in 2010, and the lowest in Brunei and Sarawak (8.4%, and 23.1%). We estimate that the combined area planted in industrial oil palm and timber plantations in 2010 was 75,480 km2, representing 10% of Borneo. We mapped 271,819 km of primary logging roads that were created between 1973 and 2010. The greatest density of logging roads was found in Sarawak, at 0.89 km km-2, and the lowest density in Brunei, at 0.18 km km-2. Analyzing MODIS-based tree cover maps, we estimate that logging operated within 700 m of primary logging roads. Using this distance, we estimate that 266,257 km2 of 1973 forest cover has been logged. With 389,566 km2 (52.8%) of the island remaining forested, of which 209,649 km2 remains intact. There is still hope for biodiversity conservation in Borneo. Protecting logged forests from fire and conversion to plantations is an urgent priority for reducing rates of deforestation in Borneo.