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Abstract Inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) is the mainstay therapy for asthma, but general adherence is low. There is a paucity of real-world inhaler prescribing and adherence data from Asia and at the population level. To address these gaps, we performed a real-world data analysis of inhaler prescribing pattern and adherence in a multi-ethnic Asian asthma cohort and evaluated the association with asthma outcomes. We performed a retrospective analysis of adult asthma patients (aged ≥18 years) treated in the primary and specialist care settings in Singapore between 2015 to 2019. Medication adherence was measured using the medication possession ratio (MPR), and categorised into good adherence (MPR 0.75-1.2), poor adherence (MPR 0.75) or medication oversupply (MPR > 1.2). All statistical analyses were performed using R Studio. 8023 patients, mean age 57 years, were evaluated between 2015 and 2019. Most patients were receiving primary care (70.4%) and on GINA step 1–3 therapies (78.2%). ICS-long-acting beta-2 agonist (ICS-LABA) users increased over the years especially in the primary care, from 33% to 52%. Correspondingly, inpatient admission and ED visit rates decreased over the years. Between 2015 and 2019, the proportion of patients with poor adherence decreased from 12.8% to 10.5% (for ICS) and from 30.0% to 26.8% (for ICS-LABA) respectively. Factors associated with poor adherence included minority ethnic groups (Odds ratio of MPR 0.75–1.2: 0.73–0.93; compared to Chinese), presence of COPD (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59–0.96) and GINA step 4 treatment ladder (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.61–0.85). Factors associated with good adherence were male gender (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01–1.28), single site of care (OR 1.22 for primary care and OR 1.76 for specialist care), GINA step 2 treatment ladder (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.08–1.50). Good adherence was also associated with less frequent inpatient admission (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84–0.98), greater SABA overdispensing (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.47–1.87) and oral corticosteroids use (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05–1.14). Inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) adherence has improved generally, however, poor adherence was observed for patients receiving asthma care in both primary and specialist care, and those from the minority ethnicities.

Abstract Background Falls in older adults are the result of a complex web of interacting causes, that further results in other physical, emotional, and psychological sequelae. A conceptual framework that represents the reciprocal dynamics of these causal factors can enable clinicians, researchers, and policymakers to clarify goals in falls intervention in older adults. Methods A Group Model Building (GMB) exercise was conducted with researchers and clinicians from academic units and public healthcare institutes in Singapore. The aim of the exercise was to produce a shared visual representation of the causal structure for falls and engage in discussions on how current and future falls intervention programmes can address falls in the older adults, especially in the Asian context. It was conducted in four steps: 1) Outlining and prioritising desirable patient outcomes, 2) Conceptual model building, 3) Identifying key intervention elements of effective falls intervention programmes, 4) Mapping of interventions to outcomes. This causal loop diagram (CLD) was then used to generate insights into the current understanding of falls causal relationships, current efforts in falls intervention in Singapore, and used to identify gaps in falls research that could be further advanced in future intervention studies. Results Four patient outcomes were identified by the group as key in falls intervention: 1) Falls, 2) Injurious falls, 3) Fear of falling, and 4) Restricted mobility and life space. A CLD of the reciprocal relationships between risk factors and these outcomes are represented in four sub-models: 1) Fear of falling, 2) Injuries associated with falls, 3) Caregiver overprotectiveness, 4) Post-traumatic stress disorder and psychological resilience. Through this GMB exercise, the group gained the following insights: (1) Psychological sequelae of falls is an important falls intervention outcome. (2) The effects of family overprotectiveness, psychological resilience, and PTSD in exacerbating the consequences of falls are not well understood. (3) There is a need to develop multi-component falls interventions to address the multitude of falls and falls related sequelae. Conclusion This work illustrates the potential of GMB to promote shared understanding of complex healthcare problems and to provide a roadmap for the development of more effective preventive actions.

ObjectiveThis study aimed to quantify heterogeneity in the value for money of precision medicine (PM) by application types across contexts and conditions and to quantify sources of heterogeneity to areas of particular promises or concerns as the field of PM moves forward.MethodsA systemic search was performed in Embase, Medline, EconLit, and CRD databases for studies published between 2011 and 2021 on cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of PM interventions. Based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of one-time GDP per capita of each study country, the net monetary benefit (NMB) of PM was pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Sources of heterogeneity and study biases were examined using random-effects meta-regressions, jackknife sensitivity analysis, and the biases in economic studies checklist.ResultsAmong the 275 unique CEAs of PM, publicly sponsored studies found neither genetic testing nor gene therapy cost-effective in general, which was contradictory to studies funded by commercial entities and early stage evaluations. Evidence of PM being cost-effective was concentrated in a genetic test for screening, diagnosis, or as companion diagnostics (pooled NMBs, $48,152, $8,869, $5,693, p

Abstract Purpose The SingHealth-Duke-GlaxoSmithKline COPD and Asthma Real-world Evidence (SDG-CARE) collaboration was formed to accelerate the use of Singaporean real-world evidence in research and clinical care. A centerpiece of the collaboration was to develop a near real-time database from clinical and operational data sources to inform healthcare decision making and research studies on asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods Our multidisciplinary team, including clinicians, epidemiologists, data scientists, medical informaticians and IT engineers, adopted the hybrid waterfall-agile project management methodology to develop the SingHealth COPD and Asthma Data Mart (SCDM). The SCDM was developed within the organizational data warehouse. It pulls and maps data from various information systems using extract, transform and load (ETL) pipelines. Robust user testing and data verification was also performed to ensure that the business requirements were met and that the ETL pipelines were valid. Results The SCDM includes 199 data elements relevant to asthma and COPD. Data verification was performed and found the SCDM to be reliable. As of December 31, 2019, the SCDM contained 36,407 unique patients with asthma and COPD across the spectrum from primary to tertiary care in our healthcare system. The database updates weekly to add new data of existing patients and to include new patients who fulfil the inclusion criteria. Conclusions The SCDM was systematically developed and tested to support the use RWD for clinical and health services research in asthma and COPD. This can serve as a platform to provide research and operational insights to improve the care delivered to our patients.

IntroductionDue to an aging population, the rising prevalence and incidence of hip fractures and the associated health and economic burden present a challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Studies have shown that a complex interplay of physiological, psychological, and social factors often affects the recovery trajectories of older adults with hip fractures, often complicating the recovery process.MethodsThis research aims to actively engage stakeholders (including doctors, physiotherapists, hip fracture patients, and caregivers) using the systems modeling methodology of Group Model Building (GMB) to elicit the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery, incorporating a feedback perspective to inform system-wide interventions. Hip fracture stakeholder engagement was facilitated through the Group Model Building approach in a two-half-day workshop of 25 stakeholders. This approach combined different techniques to develop a comprehensive qualitative whole-system view model of the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery.ResultsA conceptual, qualitative model of the dynamics of hip fracture recovery was developed that draws on stakeholders' personal experiences through a moderated interaction. Stakeholders identified four domains (i.e., expectation formation, rehabilitation, affordability/availability, and resilience building) that play a significant role in the hip fracture recovery journey..DiscussionThe insight that recovery of loss of function due to hip fracture is attributed to (a) the recognition of a gap between pre-fracture physical function and current physical function; and (b) the marshaling of psychological resilience to respond promptly to a physical functional loss via uptake of rehabilitation services is supported by findings and has several policy implications.

Introduction Falls are an important public health issue with consequences that include injuries, quality of life reduction and high healthcare costs. Studies show that falls prevention strategies are effective in reducing falls rate among community-dwelling older adults. However, the evaluation for effectiveness was usually done in a controlled setting with homogeneous population, and thus may not be generalisable to a wider population. This study aims to evaluate the impact of community falls prevention programmes with group-based strength and balance exercises, on falls risk and health outcomes for older adults with falls risk in Singapore.Methods and analysis This is a pragmatic closed cohort stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial design study, which involves sequential crossover of clusters from the waitlist control condition to the intervention condition, with the sequence of crossover randomly determined. The intervention will be sequentially rolled out to 12 clusters (a minimum of 5 participants/cluster), over 6 time periods with 8-week intervals in Central and North regions of Singapore. The primary analysis will be conducted under the intention-to-treat principle. A general linear mixed model or generalised estimating equation analysis appropriate for a multilevel longitudinal study incorporating an appropriate error distribution and link function will be used. Markov model will be developed to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years and incremental cost per fall prevented from the implementation of falls prevention strategies from a societal perspective. Conditional on there being clinically relevant differences in short-term outcomes, we will implement simulation modelling to project the long-term divergence in trajectories for outcomes and costs using the Markov model.Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval has been obtained. Results will be disseminated in publications and other relevant platforms.Trial registration number NCT04788251.

Abstract Background Integrating healthcare services across and between the different health system levels can be achieved in a few ways; however, examining the social side of integration is essential and challenging. This paper explores the concept of integration perceived by general practitioners (GPs) and primary care network (PCN) representatives from the regional health systems (RHS) in a GP-RHS PCN and their perceived partnership success. Methods In this study, we explored three GP-RHS PCNs in Singapore. We used a qualitative research design and, overall, performed 17 semi-structured in-depth interviews with GPs (n = 11) and PCN representatives (n = 6) from the RHS. All interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. We conducted thematic analysis to inductively identify themes from the data. Singer's conceptual model of integration types was used as guiding principles to derive relevant and salient themes for integration. Results GPs and the RHS perceived the concept of integration through a series of interrelated strategies. Within the normative dimension, a sense of urgency motivated GPs to integrate improvements into their general practice. Participants perceived teamwork and relational climate as appropriate enablers for achieving interpersonal integration in a primary care partnership. While developing a trusted relationship was a perceived success of this partnership across the network, developing camaraderie and gaining knowledge in chronic disease management through the components of functional integration was a perceived success at an individual general practice level. The data also revealed some operational challenges within the structural dimension and some inabilities of the PCN to achieve complete process integration. Conclusions Our study points to multi-faceted integration, comprising various forms that need to be manifested at all levels of care to achieve coordinated, seamless, and comprehensive care for patients suffering from chronic conditions. The present iteration of the PCN has been shown to offer integration at a level that warrants praise but still requires structural and process integration improvement.

Abstract Background Studies have found that caregivers can influence stroke survivors’ outcomes, such as mortality. It is thus pertinent to identify significant factors associated with caregivers’ outcomes. The study objective was to examine the associations between caregivers’ psychosocial characteristics and caregivers’ depressive symptoms. Methods The analysis obtained three-month and one-year post-stroke data from the Singapore Stroke Study, which was collected from hospital settings. Caregivers’ depressive symptoms were assessed via the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression instrument. Psychosocial characteristics of caregivers included subjective burden (Zarit Burden Interview), quality of care-relationship (a modified 3-item scale from the University of Southern California Longitudinal Study of Three-Generation Families) and expressive social support (an 8-item scale from Pearlin et al.). Mixed effect Tobit regressions were used to examine the associations between these study variables. Results A total of 214 caregivers of stroke patients hospitalized were included in the final analysis. Most caregivers were Chinese women with secondary school education, unemployed and married to the patients. Caregivers' subjective burden was positively associated with their depressive symptoms (Partial regression coefficient: 0.18, 95% CI 0.11–0.24). Quality of care-relationship (Partial regression coefficient: − 0.35, 95% CI − 0.63 to − 0.06) and expressive social support (partial regression coefficient: − 0.28, 95% CI − 0.37 to − 0.19) were negatively associated with caregivers’ depressive symptoms. Caregivers’ depressive symptoms were higher at three-month post-stroke than one-year post-stroke (Partial regression coefficient: − 1.00, 95% CI − 1.80 to − 0.20). Conclusion The study identified subjective burden, quality of care-relationship and expressive social support as significantly associated with caregivers’ depressive symptoms. Caregivers’ communication skills may also play a role in reducing caregivers’ depressive symptoms.

Globally, Emergency Care Systems (ECS) are a critical resource that needs to be used judiciously as demand can easily exceed supply capacity. Sub-optimal ECS use contributes to Emergency Department (ED) crowding; this adversely affects ECS as well as system-wide service performance. Alternate Care Service Pathways (ACSPs) are innovations intended to mitigate ED crowding by re-routing less-urgent cases to sites of care other than the ED. As in other countries, policymakers in Singapore need to respond to increasing ED utilization and are evaluating the introduction of ACSPs. However, developing ACSPs is costly, entails tinkering with established critical services, and runs the risk of unintended adverse consequences. Through a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) developed in four stages, we present a view of the current Singapore ECS and the intended role of ACSPs in relieving its stress. This exercise suggests that to be successful ACSPs must change the prevailing mental model of the ED as a “one-stop shop” but should focus on integrating with primary care. The discussions stimulated by the development, critiquing, and revision of the CLD highlighted the importance of accounting for the reservations of stakeholders for changes. The CLD has enhanced shared understanding and will be used to guide quantitative simulation modeling to promote informed policy.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on health systems globally. The sufficiency of hospitals' bed resource is a cornerstone for access to care which can significantly impact the public health outcomes.ObjectiveWe describe the development of a dynamic simulation framework to support agile resource planning during the COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore.Materials and MethodsThe study data were derived from the Singapore General Hospital and public domain sources over the period from 1 January 2020 till 31 May 2020 covering the period when the initial outbreak and surge of COVID-19 cases in Singapore happened. The simulation models and its variants take into consideration the dynamic evolution of the pandemic and the rapidly evolving policies and processes in Singapore.ResultsThe models were calibrated against historical data for the Singapore COVID-19 situation. Several variants of the resource planning model were rapidly developed to adapt to the fast-changing COVID-19 situation in Singapore.ConclusionThe agility in adaptable models and robust collaborative management structure enabled the quick deployment of human and capital resources to sustain the high level of health services delivery during the COVID-19 surge.

Abstract Background Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in December 2019, a substantial body of COVID-19 medical literature has been generated. As of June 2020, gaps and longitudinal trends in the COVID-19 medical literature remain unidentified, despite potential benefits for research prioritisation and policy setting in both the COVID-19 pandemic and future large-scale public health crises. Methods In this paper, we searched PubMed and Embase for medical literature on COVID-19 between 1 January and 24 March 2020. We characterised the growth of the early COVID-19 medical literature using evidence maps and bibliometric analyses to elicit cross-sectional and longitudinal trends and systematically identify gaps. Results The early COVID-19 medical literature originated primarily from Asia and focused mainly on clinical features and diagnosis of the disease. Many areas of potential research remain underexplored, such as mental health, the use of novel technologies and artificial intelligence, pathophysiology of COVID-19 within different body systems, and indirect effects of COVID-19 on the care of non-COVID-19 patients. Few articles involved research collaboration at the international level (24.7%). The median submission-to-publication duration was 8 days (interquartile range: 4–16). Conclusions Although in its early phase, COVID-19 research has generated a large volume of publications. However, there are still knowledge gaps yet to be filled and areas for improvement for the global research community. Our analysis of early COVID-19 research may be valuable in informing research prioritisation and policy planning both in the current COVID-19 pandemic and similar global health crises.

Abstract Background A rapidly ageing population with increasing prevalence of chronic disease presents policymakers the urgent task of tailoring healthcare services to optimally meet changing needs. While healthcare needs-based segmentation is a promising approach to efficiently assessing and responding to healthcare needs at the population level, it is not clear how available schemes perform in the context of community-based surveys administered by non-medically trained personnel. The aim of this prospective cohort, community setting study is to evaluate 4 segmentation schemes in terms of practicality and predictive validity for future health outcomes and service utilization. Methods A cohort was identified from a cross-sectional health and social characteristics survey of Singapore public rental housing residents aged 60 years and above. Baseline survey data was used to assign individuals into segments as defined by 4 predefined population segmentation schemes developed in Singapore, Delaware, Lombardy and North-West London. From electronic data records, mortality, hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and specialist outpatient clinic visits were assessed for 180 days after baseline segment assignment and compared to segment membership for each segmentation scheme. Results Of 1324 residents contacted, 928 agreed to participate in the survey (70% response). All subjects could be assigned an exclusive segment for each segmentation scheme. Individuals in more severe segments tended to have lower quality of life as assessed by the EQ-5D Index for health utility. All population segmentation schemes were observed to exhibit an ability to differentiate different levels of mortality and healthcare utilization. Conclusions It is practical to assign individuals to healthcare needs-based population segments through community surveys by non-medically trained personnel. The resulting segments for all 4 schemes evaluated in this way have an ability to predict health outcomes and utilization over the medium term (180 days), with significant overlap for some segments. Healthcare needs-based segmentation schemes which are designed to guide action hold particular promise for promoting efficient allocation of services to meet the needs of salient population groups. Further evaluation is needed to determine if these schemes also predict responsiveness to interventions to meet needs implied by segment membership.

ObjectivesFamily caregivers play a fundamental role in the care of the older blunt trauma patient. We aim to identify risk factors for negative and positive experiences of caregiving among family caregivers.DesignProspective, nationwide, multi-center cohort study.Setting and participants110 family caregivers of Singaporeans aged≥55 admitted for unintentional blunt trauma with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) or New Injury Severity Score (NISS)≥10 were assessed for caregiving-related negative (disturbed schedule and poor health, lack of family support, lack of finances) and positive (esteem) experiences using the modified-Caregiver Reaction Assessment (m-CRA) three months post-injury.MethodsThe association between caregiver and patient factors, and the four m-CRA domains were evaluated via linear regression.ResultsCaregivers of retired patients and caregivers of functionally dependent patients (post-injury Barthel score Conclusions and implicationsNegative and positive experiences of caregiving among caregivers of older blunt trauma patients are associated with pre-injury disability and certain patient and caregiver demographics. These factors should be considered when planning the post-discharge support of older blunt trauma patients.

Abstract Background Healthcare needs-based population segmentation is a promising approach for enabling the development and evaluation of integrated healthcare service models that meet healthcare needs. However, healthcare policymakers interested in understanding adult population healthcare needs may not be aware of suitable population segmentation tools available for use in the literature and barring better-known alternatives, may reinvent the wheel by creating and validating their own tools rather than adapting available tools in the literature. Therefore, we undertook a systematic review to identify all available tools which operationalize healthcare need-based population segmentation, to help inform policymakers developing population-level health service programmes. Methods Using search terms reflecting concepts of population, healthcare need and segmentation, we systematically reviewed and included articles containing healthcare need-based adult population segmentation tools in PubMed, CINAHL and Web of Science databases. We included tools comprising mutually exclusive segments with prognostic value for clinically relevant outcomes. An updated secondary search on the PubMed database was also conducted as the last search was conducted 2 years ago. All identified tools were characterized in terms of segment formulation, segmentation base, whether they received peer-reviewed validation, requirement for comprehensive electronic medical records, proprietary status and number of segments. Results A total of 16 unique tools were identified from systematically reviewing 9970 articles. Peer-reviewed validation studies were found for 9 of these tools. Discussion and conclusions The underlying segmentation basis of most identified tools was found to be conceptually comparable to each other which suggests a broad recognition of archetypical patient overall healthcare need profiles. While many tools operate based on administrative record data, it is noted that healthcare systems without comprehensive electronic medical records would benefit from tools which segment populations through primary data collection. Future work could therefore include development and validation of such primary data collection-based tools. While this study is limited by exclusion of non-English literature, the identified and characterized tools will nonetheless facilitate efforts by policymakers to improve patient-centred care through development and evaluation of services tailored for specific populations segmented by these tools.

Abstract Background Oxidative stress is an important theory of aging but population-based evidence has been lacking. This study aimed to evaluate the associations between biomarkers of oxidative stress, including plasma superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity and malondialdehyde (MDA), with all-cause mortality in older adults. Methods This is a community-based cohort study of 2224 participants (women:1227, median age: 86 years). We included individuals aged 65 or above and with plasma SOD activity and/or MDA tests at baseline. We evaluated the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by multivariable Cox models. Results We documented 858 deaths during six years of follow-up. There was a significant interaction effect of sex with the association between SOD activity and mortality (P

Objective The increasing chronic disease burden has placed tremendous strain on tertiary healthcare resources in most countries, necessitating a shift in chronic disease management from tertiary to primary care providers. The Primary Care Network (PCN) policy was promulgated as a model of care to organise private general practitioners (GPs) into groups to provide GPs with resources to anchor patients with chronic conditions with them in the community. As PCN is still in its embryonic stages, there is a void in research regarding its ability to empower GPs to manage patients with chronic conditions effectively. This qualitative study aims to explore the facilitators and barriers for the management of patients with chronic conditions by GPs enrolled in PCN.Design We conducted 30 semistructured interviews with GPs enrolled in a PCN followed by a thematic analysis of audio transcripts until data saturation was achieved.Setting Singapore.Results Our results suggest that PCNs facilitated GPs to more effectively manage patients through (1) provision of ancillary services such as diabetic foot screening, diabetic retinal photography and nurse counselling to permit a ‘one-stop-shop’, (2) systematic monitoring of process and clinical outcome indicators through a chronic disease registry (CDR) to promote accountability for patients’ health outcomes and (3) funding streams for PCNs to hire additional manpower to oversee operations and to reimburse GPs for extended consultations. Barriers include high administrative load in maintaining the CDR due to the lack of a smart electronic clinic management system and financial gradient faced by patients seeking services from private GPs which incur higher out-of-pocket expenses than public primary healthcare institutions.Conclusion PCNs demonstrate great promise in empowering enrolled GPs to manage patients with chronic conditions. However, barriers will need to be addressed to ensure the viability of PCNs in managing more patients in the face of an ageing population.

BackgroundIn dealing with community spread of COVID-19, two active interventions have been attempted or advocated-containment, and mitigation. Given the extensive impact of COVID-19 globally, there is international interest to learn from best practices that have been shown to work in controlling community spread to inform future outbreaks. This study explores the trajectory of COVID-19 infection in Singapore had the government intervention not focused on containment, but rather on mitigation. In addition, we estimate the actual COVID-19 infection cases in Singapore, given that confirmed cases are publicly available.Methods and findingsWe developed a COVID-19 infection model, which is a modified SIR model that differentiate between detected (diagnosed) and undetected (undiagnosed) individuals and segments total population into seven health states: susceptible (S), infected asymptomatic undiagnosed (A), infected asymptomatic diagnosed (I), infected symptomatic undiagnosed (U), infected symptomatic diagnosed (E), recovered (R), and dead (D). To account for the infection stages of the asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals, the asymptomatic infected individuals were further disaggregated into three infection stages: (a) latent (b) infectious and (c) non-infectious; while the symptomatic infected were disaggregated into two stages: (a) infectious and (b) non-infectious. The simulation result shows that by the end of the current epidemic cycle without considering the possibility of a second wave, under the containment intervention implemented in Singapore, the confirmed number of Singaporeans infected with COVID-19 (diagnosed asymptomatic and symptomatic cases) is projected to be 52,053 (with 95% confidence range of 49,370-54,735) representing 0.87% (0.83%-0.92%) of the total population; while the actual number of Singaporeans infected with COVID-19 (diagnosed and undiagnosed asymptomatic and symptomatic infected cases) is projected to be 86,041 (81,097-90,986), which is 1.65 times the confirmed cases and represents 1.45% (1.36%-1.53%) of the total population. A peak in infected cases is projected to have occurred on around day 125 (27/05/2020) for the confirmed infected cases and around day 115 (17/05/2020) for the actual infected cases. The number of deaths is estimated to be 37 (34-39) among those infected with COVID-19 by the end of the epidemic cycle; consequently, the perceived case fatality rate is projected to be 0.07%, while the actual case fatality rate is estimated to be 0.043%. Importantly, our simulation model results suggest that there about 65% more COVID-19 infection cases in Singapore that have not been captured in the official reported numbers which could be uncovered via a serological study. Compared to the containment intervention, a mitigation intervention would have resulted in early peak infection, and increase both the cumulative confirmed and actual infection cases and deaths.ConclusionEarly public health measures in the context of targeted, aggressive containment including swift and effective contact tracing and quarantine, was likely responsible for suppressing the number of COVID-19 infections in Singapore.

Emergency Departments (EDs) worldwide are confronted with rising patient volumes causing significant strains on both Emergency Medicine and entire healthcare systems. Consequently, many EDs are in a situation where the number of patients in the ED is temporarily beyond the capacity for which the ED is designed and resourced to manage-a phenomenon called Emergency Department (ED) crowding. ED crowding can impair the quality of care delivered to patients and lead to longer patient waiting times for ED doctor's consult (time to provider) and admission to the hospital ward. In Singapore, total ED attendance at public hospitals has grown significantly, that is, roughly 5.57% per year between 2005 and 2016 and, therefore, emergency physicians have to cope with patient volumes above the safe workload. The purpose of this study is to create a virtual ED that closely maps the processes of a hospital-based ED in Singapore using system dynamics, that is, a computer simulation method, in order to visualize, simulate, and improve patient flows within the ED. Based on the simulation model (virtual ED), we analyze four policies: (i) co-location of primary care services within the ED, (ii) increase in the capacity of doctors, (iii) a more efficient patient transfer to inpatient hospital wards, and (iv) a combination of policies (i) to (iii). Among the tested policies, the co-location of primary care services has the largest impact on patients' average length of stay (ALOS) in the ED. This implies that decanting non-emergency lower acuity patients from the ED to an adjacent primary care clinic significantly relieves the burden on ED operations. Generally, in Singapore, there is a tendency to strengthen primary care and to educate patients to see their general practitioners first in case of non-life threatening, acute illness.

BackgroundPatients suffering moderate or severe injury after low falls have higher readmission and long-term mortality rates compared to patients injured by high-velocity mechanisms such as motor vehicle accidents. We hypothesize that this is due to higher pre-injury frailty in low-fall patients, and present baseline patient and frailty demographics of a prospective cohort of moderate and severely injured older patients. Our second hypothesis was that frailty was associated with longer length of stay (LOS) at index admission.MethodsThis is a prospective, nation-wide, multi-center cohort study of Singaporean residents aged ≥55 years admitted for ≥48 hours after blunt injury with an injury severity score or new injury severity score ≥10, or an Organ Injury Scale ≥3, in public hospitals from 2016-2018. Demographics, mechanism of injury and frailty were recorded and analysed by Chi-square, or Kruskal-Wallis as appropriate.Results218 participants met criteria and survived the index admission. Low fall patients had the highest proportion of frailty (44, 27.3%), followed by higher level fallers (3, 21.4%) and motor vehicle accidents (1, 2.3%) (p < .01). Injury severity, extreme age, and surgery were independently associated with longer LOS. Frail patients were paradoxically noted to have shorter LOS (p < .05).ConclusionPatients sustaining moderate or severe injury after low falls are more likely to be frail compared to patients injured after higher-velocity mechanisms. However, this did not translate into longer adjusted LOS in hospital at index admission.

Background Emergency medical services (EMS) is a critical link in the chain of stroke survival. We aimed to assess EMS use for stroke in Singapore, identify characteristics associated with EMS use and the association of EMS use with stroke evaluation and treatment.Methods The Singapore Stroke Registry combines nationwide EMS and public hospital data for stroke cases in Singapore. Multivariate regressions with the generalised estimating equations were performed to examine the association between EMS use and timely stroke evaluation and treatment.Results Of 3555 acute ischaemic patients with symptom onset within 24 hours admitted to all five public hospitals between 2015 and 2016, 68% arrived via EMS. Patients who used EMS were older, were less likely to be female, had higher stroke severity by National Institute of Health Stroke Scale and had a higher prevalence of atrial fibrillation or peripheral arterial disease. Patients transported by EMS were more likely to receive rapid evaluation (door-to-imaging time ≤25 min 34.3% vs 11.1%, OR=2.74 (95% CI 1.40 to 5.38)) and were more likely to receive intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (tPA, 22.8% vs 4.6%, OR=4.61 (95% CI 3.52 to 6.03)). Among patients treated with tPA, patients who arrived via EMS were more likely to receive timely treatment than self-transported patients (door-to-needle time ≤60 min 52.6% vs 29.4%, OR=2.58 (95% CI 1.35 to 4.92)).Conclusions EMS use is associated with timely stroke evaluation and treatment in Singapore. Seamless EMS-Hospital stroke pathways and targeted public campaigns to advocate for appropriate EMS use have the potential to improve acute stroke care.

Abstract Background Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a key metric to understand the impact of stroke from patients’ perspective. Yet HRQoL is not readily measured in clinical practice. This study aims to investigate the extent to which clinical outcomes during admission predict HRQoL at 3 months and 1 year post-stroke. Methods Stroke patients admitted to five tertiary hospitals in Singapore were assessed with Shah-modified Barthel Index (Shah-mBI), National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB) before discharge, and the EQ-5D questionnaire at 3 months and 12 months post-stroke. Association of clinical measures with the EQ index at both time points was examined using multiple linear regression models. Forward stepwise selection was applied and consistently significant clinical measures were analyzed for their association with individual dimensions of EQ-5D in multiple logistic regressions. Results All five clinical measures at baseline were significant predictors of the EQ index at 3 months and 12 months, except that MMSE was not significantly associated with the EQ index at 12 months. NIHSS (3-month standardized β = − 0.111; 12-month standardized β = − 0.109) and mRS (3-month standardized β = − 0.122; 12-month standardized β = − 0.080) were shown to have a larger effect size than other measures. The contribution of NIHSS and mRS as significant predictors of HRQoL was mostly explained by their association with the mobility, self-care, and usual activities dimensions of EQ-5D. Conclusions HRQoL at 3 months and 12 months post-stroke can be predicted by clinical outcomes in the acute phase. NIHSS and mRS are better predictors than BI, MMSE, and FAB.

Abstract Background Survivors of trauma are at increased risk of dying after discharge. Studies have found that age, head injury, injury severity, falls and co-morbidities predict long-term mortality. The objective of our study was to build a nomogram predictor of 1-year and 3-year mortality for major blunt trauma adult survivors of the index hospitalization. Methods Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011–2013, we analyzed adults aged 18 and over, admitted after blunt injury, with an injury severity score (ISS) of 12 or more, who survived the index hospitalization, linked to death registry data. The study population was randomly divided 60/40 into separate construction and validation datasets, with the model built in the construction dataset, then tested in the validation dataset. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze 1-year and 3-year mortality. Results Of the 3414 blunt trauma survivors, 247 (7.2%) died within 1 year, and 551 (16.1%) died within 3 years of injury. Age (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05–1.07, p

OBJECTIVES:This study aimed to quantify health-related quality of life (HRQoL) loss associated with first episode of stroke by comparing patient-reported HRQoL before and after stroke onset. The impact of stroke in local population was also evaluated by comparing the pre- and post-stroke HRQoL with that of the general population. METHODS:The HRQoL of stroke survivors was assessed with the EQ-5D-3L index score at recruitment, for recalled pre-stroke HRQoL, and at 3 and 12 month post-stroke. Change in HRQoL from pre-stroke to 3 and 12 month was self-reported by 285 and 238 patients, respectively. Mean EQ index score at each time point (baseline: 464 patients; 3 month post-stroke: 306 patients; 12 month post-stroke: 258 patients) was compared with published population norms for EQ-5D-3L. RESULTS:There was a significant decrease in HRQoL at 3 (0.25) and 12 month (0.09) post-stroke when compared to the retrospectively recalled patients' mean pre-stroke HRQoL level (0.87). The reduction at 3 month was associated with the reduction in all EQ-5D-3L health dimensions; reductions remaining at 12 month were limited to dimensions of mobility, self-care, usual activities, and anxiety/depression. Stroke patients had a lower mean EQ index than the general population by 0.07 points pre-stroke (0.87 vs. 0.94), 0.33 points at 3 month (0.61 vs. 0.94) and 0.18 points at 12 month (0.76 vs. 0.94) post-stroke. CONCLUSIONS:Stroke has a substantial impact on HRQoL in Singapore, especially in the first three months post-stroke. Compared to the general population, stroke survivors have lower HRQoL even before stroke onset. This pre-stroke deficit in HRQoL should be taken into account when quantifying health burden of stroke or setting goals for stroke rehabilitation.