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The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 provided a rare opportunity to understand global tsunami impacts of explosive volcanism and to evaluate future hazards, including dangers from “volcanic meteotsunamis” (VMTs) induced by the atmospheric shock waves that followed the eruption. The propagation of the volcanic and marine tsunamis was analyzed using globally distributed 1 min measurements of air pressure and water level (WL) (from both tide gauges and deep-water buoys). The marine tsunami propagated primarily throughout the Pacific, reaching nearly 2 m at some locations, though most Pacific locations recorded maximums lower than 1 m. However, the VMT resulting from the atmospheric shock wave arrived before the marine tsunami and propagated globally, producing water level perturbations in the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. The resulting water level response of many Pacific Rim gauges was amplified, likely related to wave interaction with bathymetry. The meteotsunami repeatedly boosted tsunami wave energy as it circled the planet several times. In some locations, the VMT was amplified by as much as 35-fold relative to the inverse barometer due to near-Proudman resonance and topographic effects. Thus, a meteotsunami from a larger eruption (such as the Krakatoa eruption of 1883) could yield atmospheric pressure changes of 10 to 30 mb, yielding a 3–10 m near-field tsunami that would occur in advance of (usually) larger marine tsunami waves, posing additional hazards to local populations. Present tsunami warning systems do not consider this threat.

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 provided a rare opportunity to understand global tsunami impacts of explosive volcanism and to evaluate future hazards, including dangers from “volcanic meteotsunamis” (VMTs) induced by the atmospheric shock waves that followed the eruption. The propagation of the volcanic and marine tsunamis was analyzed using globally distributed 1 min measurements of air pressure and water level (WL) (from both tide gauges and deep-water buoys). The marine tsunami propagated primarily throughout the Pacific, reaching nearly 2 m at some locations, though most Pacific locations recorded maximums lower than 1 m. However, the VMT resulting from the atmospheric shock wave arrived before the marine tsunami and propagated globally, producing water level perturbations in the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. The resulting water level response of many Pacific Rim gauges was amplified, likely related to wave interaction with bathymetry. The meteotsunami repeatedly boosted tsunami wave energy as it circled the planet several times. In some locations, the VMT was amplified by as much as 35-fold relative to the inverse barometer due to near-Proudman resonance and topographic effects. Thus, a meteotsunami from a larger eruption (such as the Krakatoa eruption of 1883) could yield atmospheric pressure changes of 10 to 30 mb, yielding a 3–10 m near-field tsunami that would occur in advance of (usually) larger marine tsunami waves, posing additional hazards to local populations. Present tsunami warning systems do not consider this threat.

Using archival research methods, we found and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140 year record of daily water temperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow, and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid 20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at ~1.1 °C /century since the mid-19th century, with the largest shift in January/February (1.3 °C /century) and the smallest in May/June (~ 0.8 °C /century). The duration that the river exceeds the ecologically important threshold of 20 °C has increased by ~20 days since the 1800s, to ~60 d yr-1. Moreover, cold water days below 2 °C have virtually disappeared, and the river no longer freezes. Since ~1900, changes are primarily correlated with increases in air temperature (Tw increase of 0.81 ±0.25 °C) but also occur due to increased reservoir capacity, altered land use and river morphology, and other anthropogenic changes (0.34 ±0.12 °C). Managed release of water influences Tw seasonally, with an average reduction of 0.27 °C and 0.56 °C estimated for August and September. System changes have decreased daily variability (σ) by 0.44 °C, increased thermal memory, and reduced interannual variability. These system changes fundamentally alter the response of Tw to climate change, posing additional stressors on fauna.

We investigate here the effects of geometric properties (channel depth and cross-sectional convergence length), storm surge characteristics, friction, and river flow on the spatial and temporal variability of compound flooding along an idealized, meso-tidal coastal-plain estuary. An analytical model is developed that includes exponentially convergent geometry, tidal forcing, constant river flow, and a representation of storm surge as a combination of two sinusoidal waves. Nonlinear bed friction is treated using Chebyshev polynomials and trigonometric functions, and a multi-segment approach is used to increase accuracy. Model results show that river discharge increases the damping of surge amplitudes in an estuary, while increasing channel depth has the opposite effect. Sensitivity studies indicate that the impact of river flow on peak water level decreases as channel depth increases, while the influence of tide and surge increases in the landward portion of an estuary. Moreover, model results show less surge damping in deeper configurations and even amplification in some cases, while increased convergence length scale increases damping of surge waves with periods of 12–72 h. For every modeled scenario, there is a point where river discharge effects on water level outweigh tide/surge effects. As a channel is deepened, this cross-over point moves progressively upstream. Thus, channel deepening may alter flood risk spatially along an estuary and reduce the length of a river estuary, within which fluvial flooding is dominant.

Changes in tidal range due to anthropogenic impacts exacerbate nuisance flooding in estuaries along the U.S. coastline., Nuisance flooding (NF) is defined as minor, nondestructive flooding that causes substantial, accumulating socioeconomic impacts to coastal communities. While sea-level rise is the main driver for the observed increase in NF events in the United States, we show here that secular changes in tides also contribute. An analysis of 40 tidal gauge records from U.S. coasts finds that, at 18 locations, NF increased due to tidal amplification, while decreases in tidal range suppressed NF at 11 locations. Estuaries show the largest changes in NF attributable to tide changes, and these can often be traced to anthropogenic alterations. Limited long-term measurements from estuaries suggest that the effects of evolving tides are more widespread than the locations considered here. The total number of NF days caused by tidal changes has increased at an exponential rate since 1950, adding ~27% to the total number of NF events observed in 2019 across locations with tidal amplification.

Tidal waves traveling into estuaries are modified by channel geometry and river flow. The damping effect of river flow on incident astronomical tides is well documented, whereas its impact on low‐frequency tides like MSf and Mm is poorly understood. In this contribution, we employ a numerical model to explore low‐frequency tidal behavior under varying river flow. MSf and Mm are locally generated by frictional mechanisms inside an estuary, and they are larger in amplitude far upstream in tidal rivers and persist landward of the point of tidal extinction. Increasing river flow nonlinearly modulates the longitudinal variations of MSf and Mm amplitudes. This is dynamically explained by flow‐enhanced asymmetry in subtidal friction over the spring‐neap (MSf) and perigee‐apogee (Mm) cycles, respectively. Estuaries act as frequency filters, where low‐frequency waves decay at a smaller rate and propagate more inland than high‐frequency waves. Strong inland penetration of low‐frequency tides informs compound flood management.

Nuisance flooding (NF) or high tide flooding describes minor nondestructive flooding which can nonetheless cause substantial negative socio-economic impacts to coastal communities. The frequency of NF events has increased and accelerated over the past decades along the U.S. coast, leading to changes ranging from 300% to 900%. This is mainly a result of sea level rise reducing the gap between high tidal datum and flood thresholds. While long-term relative sea level rise is the main driver for the increased number of NF events, other factors such as variability in the Gulf stream, the storm climate, and infragravity waves can also contribute. Another important driver that is often overlooked is related to changes in coastal and estuary tides, through secular trends in the amplitudes of major tidal constituents. In this presentation we assess the role of tidal changes in modulating the frequency of NF events along the U.S. coastline. We analyze hourly records from 49 U.S. tide gauges for which the National Weather Service has defined NF thresholds. We find that (1) overall across all tide gauges the number of NF days has increased since 1950 due to changes in coastal tides, adding up to 100 NF days in recent years (on top of the increase due to relative sea level rise), (2) more tide gauges experience an increase in NF events than a decrease due to changes in tides, (3) tide gauges in major estuaries which have undergone major anthropogenic alterations experience the strongest changes; in Wilmington (Cape Fear estuary), for example, 10-40% of NF events in recent years can be attributed to tidal changes.

An analysis of water level time series from 20 tide gauges in Southeast Asia finds that diurnal and semidiurnal astronomical tides exhibit strong seasonal variability of both amplitude and phase, which is not caused by known modulations of the astronomical tide-generating forces. Instead, it is found that the tidal properties are coherent with the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI), indicating that monsoonal mechanisms are the likely cause. The study domain includes the Malacca Strait, Gulf of Thailand, the southern South China Sea, and Java Sea. The character of the geography and the tidal variability is different in each of these subregions. A new barotropic regional tide model is developed that incorporates the coupling between geostrophic currents, wind-driven (Ekman) currents, and tidal currents in the bottom boundary layer in order to examine the influence of these factors on tides. The dynamics thus preserve the frictional nonlinearities while neglecting advective nonlinearities and baroclinic tides, approximations that should be valid on the wide and shallow continental shelves in the study region. The model perturbation approach uses the climatological seasonal variability of wind stress and geostrophic currents, which are prescribed singly and in combination in the model, to explain the observed tidal variability. Results are most successful in the southern Gulf of Thailand and near Singapore, where it is found that the combined effect of geostrophic and Ekman currents shows increased skill in reproducing the tidal variability than individual models. Ambiguous results at other locations suggest more localized processes such as river runoff.

Ocean tides are changing worldwide for reasons unrelated to astronomical forcing. Changes in tidal properties coupled with altered mean sea level (MSL) may yield higher peak water levels and increased occurrence of short-term exceedance events such as storm surge and nuisance flooding. Here we investigate the hypothesis that changes in relative sea-level are correlated with alterations in tidal amplitudes. Our approach focuses on the correlation between short-term (monthly to interannual) fluctuations in sea-level with changes in tidal properties of major ocean tides (M2, and K1; S2 and O1) at 152 gauges. Results suggest that sea-level variability is correlated to inter-annual tidal variability at most (92%) of tide gauges in the Pacific, with statistically significant rates between ±10 and ±500 mm per meter sea-level rise observed. These tidal anomalies, while influenced by basin-scale climate processes and sea-level changes, appear to be locally forced (in part) and not coherent over amphidromic or basin-wide scales. Overall, the Western Pacific shows a greater concentration of tide/sea level correlations at interannual time scales than the Eastern Pacific; 44% and 46% of gauges are significant in K1 and O1 in the west compared to 29% and 30% in the east, and 63% and 53% of gauges in the west are significant in M2 and S2 versus 47% and 32% in the east. Seasonal variation in tidal properties is less apparent in the empirical record, with statistically significant seasonal variations observed at only 35% of all gauges, with the largest concentrations in Southeast Asia.

Scientists and engineers have observed for some time that tidal amplitudes at many locations are shifting considerably due to non-astronomical factors. Here we review comprehensively these important changes in tidal properties, many of which remain poorly understood. Over long geological time-scales, tectonic processes drive variations in basin size, depth, and shape, and hence the resonant properties of ocean basins. On shorter geological time-scales, changes in oceanic tidal properties are dominated by variations in water depth. A growing number of studies have identified widespread, sometimes regionally-coherent, positive and negative trends in tidal constituents and levels during the 19th, 20th and early 21st centuries. Determining the causes is challenging because a tide measured at a coastal gauge integrates the effects of local, regional, and oceanic changes. Here, we highlight six main factors that can cause changes in measured tidal statistics on local scales, and a further eight possible regional/global driving mechanisms. Since only a few studies have combined observations and models, or modelled at a temporal/spatial resolution capable of resolving both ultra-local and large-scale global changes, the individual contributions from local and regional mechanisms remain uncertain. Nonetheless, modelling studies project that sea-level rise and climate change will continue to alter tides over the next several centuries, with regionally coherent modes of change caused by alterations to coastal morphology and ice sheet extent. Hence, a better understanding of the causes and consequences of tidal variations is needed to help assess the implications for coastal defense, risk assessment, and ecological change.

Objective: This study sought to investigate whether the size of the target used in the horizontal vHIT has an effect on the saccade profile of healthy subjects, and to expand upon previous work linking age to the existence of small vHIT saccades.Methods: 48 participants were recruited between 18 and 77 years of age, with no history of vestibular, oculomotor or neurological conditions and a visual acuity of at least 0.3 LogMAR. Participants underwent four consecutive horizontal vHIT trials using the standard target size and three smaller targets. VOR gain and metrics for saccadic incidence, peak eye velocity and latency were then extracted from results. Results: Target size was a statistically significant influence on saccade metrics. As target size increased, saccadic incidence decreased while peak eye velocity and latency increased. However, a potential order effect was also discovered, and once this was corrected for the remaining effect of target size was small and is likely clinically insignificant. The effect of age was much stronger than target size; increasing age was strongly positively correlated with saccadic incidence and showed a medium size correlation with peak velocity, though not with saccadic latency.Conclusion: While this study suggests that target size may have a statistically significant impact on the vHIT saccade profile of normal subjects, age has a greater influence on the incidence and size of small vHIT saccades.

This study explores the spatial and temporal character of turbidity maxima in the Columbia River Estuary (CRE) using satellite observations. Surface reflectance data measured by the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were calibrated against in situ measurements of surface turbidity (R 2 = 0.85 for 205 measurements). More than 1500 satellite images from 2000 to 2015 were then conditionally sampled to explore the physical processes that drive the spatial distribution of the turbidity field. We find satellite measurements are able to describe seasonal, spring–neap, and spatial features of the estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) that are not easily observable by other means. System-wide levels of turbidity are most sensitive to river flow and spring–neap tidal range, with a weaker correlation to wind and waves. Maximum surface turbidity is observed in winter during elevated flow from coastal tributaries and remains elevated during the spring freshet of the main stem Columbia. Two ETM with asymmetric along-channel profiles are observed, one in the North Channel and another in the South Channel. Turbidity distributions migrate downstream as tidal range and river flow increase but appear to become topographically trapped near topographic holes at river kilometers 15–20. Hence, depth-sensitive circulation processes like internal asymmetry and gravitational circulation are likely important mechanisms for trapping particles and determining ETM location. These conclusions confirm the theoretical result that along-channel distributions of turbidity should have an asymmetric distribution and emphasize the role of bottom topography.

Reliable estimation of freshwater inflow to the ocean from large tidal rivers is vital for water resources management and climate analyses. Discharge gauging stations are typically located beyond the tidal intrusion reach, such that inputs and losses occurring closer to the ocean are not included. Here, we develop a method of estimating river discharge using multiple gauges and time-dependent tidal statistics determined via wavelet analysis. The Multiple-gauge Tidal Discharge Estimate (MTDE) method is developed using data from the Columbia River and Fraser River estuaries and calibrated against river discharge. Next, we evaluate the general applicability of MTDE by testing an idealized two-dimensional numerical model, with a convergent cross-sectional profile, for eighty-one cases in which nondimensional numbers for friction, river flow, and convergence length scale are varied. The simulations suggest that MTDE is applicable to a variety of tidal systems. Model results and data analyses together suggest that MTDE works best with at least three gauges: a reference station near the river mouth, and two upstream gauges that respond strongly to distinct portions of the observed range of flow. The balance between tidal damping and amplifying factors determines the favorable location of the gauges. Compared to previous studies, the MTDE method improves the time resolution of estimates (from 2.5 to

Tidal rivers are a vital and little studied nexus between physical oceanography and hydrology. It is only in the last few decades that substantial research efforts have been focused on the interactions of river discharge with tidal waves and storm surges into regions beyond the limit of salinity intrusion, a realm that can extend inland hundreds of kilometers. One key phenomenon resulting from this interaction is the emergence of large fortnightly tides, which are forced long waves with amplitudes that may increase beyond the point where astronomical tides have become extinct. These can be larger than the linear tide itself at more landward locations, and they greatly influence tidal river water levels and wetland inundation. Exploration of the spectral redistribution and attenuation of tidal energy in rivers has led to new appreciation of a wide range of consequences for fluvial and coastal sedimentology, delta evolution, wetland conservation, and salinity intrusion under the influence of sea level rise and delta subsidence. Modern research aims at unifying traditional harmonic tidal analysis, nonparametric regression techniques, and the existing understanding of tidal hydrodynamics to better predict and model tidal river dynamics both in single-thread channels and in branching channel networks. In this context, this review summarizes results from field observations and modeling studies set in tidal river environments as diverse as the Amazon in Brazil, the Columbia, Fraser and Saint Lawrence in North America, the Yangtze and Pearl in China, and the Berau and Mahakam in Indonesia. A description of state-of-the-art methods for a comprehensive analysis of water levels, wave propagation, discharges, and inundation extent in tidal rivers is provided. Implications for lowland river deltas are also discussed in terms of sedimentary deposits, channel bifurcation, avulsion, and salinity intrusion, addressing contemporary research challenges.

Summary River flow and sediment transport in estuaries influence morphological development over decadal and century time scales, but hydrological and sedimentological records are typically too short to adequately characterize long-term trends. In this study, we recover archival records and apply a rating curve approach to develop the first instrumental estimates of daily delta inflow and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay (1849–1929). The total sediment load is constrained using sedimentation/erosion estimated from bathymetric survey data to produce continuous daily sediment transport estimates from 1849 to 1955, the time period prior to sediment load measurements. We estimate that ∼55% (45–75%) of the ∼1500 ± 400 million tons (Mt) of sediment delivered to the estuary between 1849 and 2011 was the result of anthropogenic alteration in the watershed that increased sediment supply. Also, the seasonal timing of sediment flux events has shifted because significant spring-melt floods have decreased, causing estimated springtime transport (April 1st to June 30th) to decrease from ∼25% to ∼15% of the annual total. By contrast, wintertime sediment loads (December 1st to March 31st) have increased from ∼70% to ∼80%. A ∼35% reduction of annual flow since the 19th century along with decreased sediment supply has resulted in a ∼50% reduction in annual sediment delivery. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other systems for which unanalyzed historic data exist.

Here, we demonstrate that reductions in the depth of inlets or estuary channels can be used to reduce or prevent coastal flooding. A validated hydrodynamic model of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC), is used to test nature-based adaptation measures in ameliorating flooding for NYC's two largest historical coastal flood events. In addition to control runs with modern bathymetry, three altered landscape scenarios are tested: (1) increasing the area of wetlands to their 1879 footprint and bathymetry, but leaving deep shipping channels unaltered, (2) shallowing all areas deeper than 2 m in the bay to be 2 m below Mean Low Water, (3) shallowing only the narrowest part of the inlet to the bay. These three scenarios are deliberately extreme and designed to evaluate the leverage each approach exerts on water levels. They result in peak water level reductions of 0.3%, 15%, and 6.8% for Hurricane Sandy, and 2.4%, 46% and 30% for the Category-3 hurricane of 1821, respectively (bay-wide averages). These results suggest that shallowing can provide greater flood protection than wetland restoration, and it is particularly effective at reducing "fast-pulse" storm surges that rise and fall quickly over several hours, like that of the 1821 storm. Nonetheless, the goal of flood mitigation must be weighed against economic, navigation, and ecological needs, and practical concerns such as the availability of sediment.

River-tide dynamics remain poorly understood, in part because conventional harmonic analysis (HA) does not cope effectively with nonstationary signals. To explore nonstationary behavior of river tides and the modulation effects of river discharge, this work analyzes tidal signals in the Yangtze River estuary using both HA in a nonstationary mode and continuous wavelet transforms (CWT). The Yangtze is an excellent natural laboratory to analyze river tides because of its high and variable flow, its length, and the fact that there are do dams or reflecting barriers within the tidal part of the system. Analysis of tidal frequencies by CWT and analysis of subtidal water level and tidal ranges reveal a broad range of subtidal variations over fortnightly, monthly, semiannual, and annual frequencies driven by subtidal variations in friction and by variable river discharges. We employ HA in a nonstationary mode (NSHA) by segregating data within defined flow ranges into separate analyses. NSHA quantifies the decay of the principal tides and the modulation of M4 tide with increasing river discharges. M4 amplitudes decrease far upriver (landward portion of the estuary) and conversely increase close to the ocean as river discharge increases. The fortnightly frequencies reach an amplitude maximum upriver of that for over tide frequencies, due to the longer wavelength of the fortnightly constituents. These methods and findings should be applicable to large tidal rivers globally and have broad implications regarding management of navigation channels and ecosystems in tidal rivers.

Interaction of barotropic tides with subsurface topography is vital to ocean mixing. Yet the behavior of large-amplitude, nonlinear, internal solitary waves (ISWs) that can cause strong mixing remains poorly understood, especially that of higher-mode and multimodal internal waves. Therefore, a 2.5-dimensional, nonhydrostatic model with adjustable vertical resolution was developed to investigate effects of upper-ocean stratification on tidally induced multimodal internal waves and to show how they are generated by the subcritical ridge where only upward-propagating internal wave beams (IWBs) are present. The effects of the stratification on properties and characteristics of the excited IWBs and on the energy partition of the radiated mode-1 and mode-2 internal waves were investigated based on the model results. Higher modes of internal waves can also be effectively generated in the IWBs by the subcritical topography, and the contribution to IWBs from higher modes increases with the upper-ocean stratification. Mode-2 ISWs can be excited from the IWBs if both the tidal Froude number and the contribution to IWBs from mode-2 waves are sufficiently high (U0 is the tidal current speed, and c2 is the phase speed of mode-2 waves). In a moderately stratified upper ocean, both mode-1 and mode-2 ISWs can be produced, but for weak (strong) stratification, only mode-1 (mode-2) ISWs are generated. Further, it is found that the distance between two successive mode-1 or mode-2 ISW trains increases linearly with the upper-ocean stratification. The ratio of the kinetic energy to the available potential energy for the mode-2 ISWs increases with the upper-ocean stratification in a strongly stratified ocean.

Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides significantly amplifies the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplification highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased flood risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local flood level determinations should consider the joint effects of non-stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales.

Hourly sea level is examined at 25 open-ocean stations in the Pacific Ocean with records longer than 30 yr. A search for trends finds that the amplitude of the dominant semidiurnal tide M2 is increasing at 12 of the 13 sites where a statistically significant trend can be identified. It is also found that nontidal variance in the neighborhood of M2 is decreasing at all 12 of the sites where a significant increase in M2 tide is occurring. The trend in amplitude of the dominant diurnal tide K1 is significant at six stations, and it is both increasing (four stations) and decreasing (two stations). The trend in semidiurnal-band variance suggests the hypothesis that increases in M2 could be caused by improvements in time keeping or data processing that would reduce the apparent phase variability of the tide. This possibility is examined and found to be the likely explanation for tidal trends at four stations. Local changes are found to explain the trend at two stations, Johnston Island and Mokuoloe, as diagnosed from correlated changes in nonlinear overtides and site history. Changes in M2 at the equatorial station of Kanton are significant and unexplained by either timing errors or local morphodynamics; although, strong nonlinear overtides are present. Changing tides at five stations in the western Pacific, Malakal, Yap, Saipan, Kapingamarangi, and Pohnpei cannot be explained by the above and suggest a region where a connection between climate and tides may yet be identified.

This study examines connections between mean sea level (MSL) variability and diurnal and semidiurnal tidal constituent variations at 17 open-ocean and 9 continental shelf tide gauges in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, a region showing anomalous rise in MSL over the last 20 years and strong interannual variability. Detrended MSL fluctuations are correlated with detrended tidal amplitude and phase fluctuations, defined as tidal anomaly trends (TATs), to quantify the response of tidal properties to MSL variation. About 20 significant amplitude and phase TATs are found for each of the two strongest tidal constituents, K1 (diurnal) and M2 (semidiurnal). Lesser constituents (O1 and S2) show trends at nearly half of all gauges. Fluctuations in MSL shift amplitudes and phases; both positive and negative responses occur. Changing overtides suggest that TATs are influenced by changing shallow water friction over the equatorial Western Pacific and the eastern coast of Australia (especially near the Great Barrier Reef). There is a strong connection between semidiurnal TATs at stations around the Solomon Islands and changes in thermocline depth, overtide generation, and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). TATs for O1, K1, and M2 are related to each other in a manner that suggests transfer of energy from M2 to the two diurnals via resonant triad interactions; these cause major tidal variability on sub-decadal time scales, especially for M2. The response of tides to MSL variability is not only spatially complex, it is frequency dependent; therefore, short-term responses may not predict long-term behavior.

This two-part paper provides comprehensive time and frequency domain analyses and models of along-channel water level variations in the 234-km-long Lower Columbia River and Estuary (LCRE) and documents the response of floodplain wetlands thereto. In Part I, power spectra, continuous wavelet transforms, and harmonic analyses are used to understand the influences of tides, river flow, upwelling and downwelling, and hydropower operations (“power-peaking”) on the water level regime. Estuarine water levels are influenced primarily by astronomical tides and coastal processes and secondarily by river flow. The importance of coastal and tidal influences decreases in the landward direction, and water levels are increasingly controlled by river flow variations at periods from ≤1 day to years. Water level records are only slightly nonstationary near the ocean, but become highly irregular upriver. Although astronomically forced tidal constituents decrease above the estuary, tidal fortnightly and overtide variations increase for 80–200 km landward, both relative to major tidal constituents and in absolute terms. Near the head of the tide at Bonneville Dam, strong diel and weekly fluctuations caused by power-peaking replace tidal daily (diurnal and semidiurnal) and fortnightly variations. Tides account for 60–70 %, river flow and seasonal processes 5–20 %, and weather 2–4 % of the total variance in the seaward 60 km of the system. In the landward 70 km of the LCRE, seasonal-fluvial variations account for 80–90 % of the variance, power-peaking 1–6 %, and tides

Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. To investigate whether this cluster of high waters is a random occurrence or indicative of intensified storm tides, we recover archival tide gauge data back to 1844 and evaluate the trajectory of the annual maximum storm tide. Approximately half of long-term variance is anticorrelated with decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, while long-term trends explain the remainder. The 10 year storm tide has increased by 0.28 m. Combined with a 0.44 m increase in local sea level since 1856, the 10 year flood level has increased by approximately 0.72 ± 0.25 m, and magnified the annual probability of overtopping the typical Manhattan seawall from less than 1% to about 20–25%.

Long-term changes in the sand balance of a river-estuary system can strongly affect navigation and ecosystems. Here, we examine two sand budget components in the lower Columbia tidal river, fluvial supply and human removal. Rating curves were used to estimate daily sand input between 1900 and 2010. Publications, interviews, and data analyses were used to evaluate sand removal by dredging and mining. Comparison between sand input and removal indicates that a sand deficit has existed for >50 of the last 85 years. Since 1962, the deficit has averaged 4.62 (±1.74)×106 ts-yr−1. Although historic sand transport to the ocean cannot be estimated, it is now small. Several factors contribute to the sand deficit: dredging, sand mining, flow regulation by dams, and climate change. The sand deficit documented here has likely contributed to the lower water levels in the tidal river observed in recent decades, which decreases habitat availability during high flows and channel depths during low-flow periods.

[1] Reliable estimation of river discharge to the ocean from large tidal rivers is vital for water resources management and climate analyses. Due to the difficulties inherent in measuring tidal-river discharge, flow records are often limited in length and/or quality and tidal records often predate discharge records. Tidal theory indicates that tides and river discharge interact through quadratic bed friction, which diminishes and distorts the tidal wave as discharge increases. We use this phenomenon to develop a method of estimating river discharge for time periods with tidal data but no flow record. Employing sequential 32 day harmonic analyses of tidal properties, we calibrate San Francisco (SF), CA tide data to the Sacramento River delta outflow index from 1930 to 1990, and use the resulting relationship to hindcast river flow from 1858 to 1929. The M2 admittance (a ratio of the observed M2 tidal constituent to its astronomical forcing) best reproduces high flows, while low-flow periods are better represented by amplitude ratios based on higher harmonics (e.g., M4/M22). Results show that the annual inflow to SF Bay is now 30% less than before 1900 and confirm that the flood of January 1862 was the largest since 1858.

One of the most challenging areas in tidal analysis is the study of nonstationary signals with a tidal component, as they confront both current analysis methods and dynamical understanding. A new analysis tool has been developed, NS_TIDE, adapted to the study of nonstationary signals, in this case, river tides. It builds the nonstationary forcing directly into the tidal basis functions. It is implemented by modification of T_TIDE; however, certain concepts, particularly the meaning of a constituent and the Rayleigh criterion, are redefined to account for the smearing effects on the tidal spectral lines by nontidal energy. An error estimation procedure is included that constructs a covariance matrix of the regression coefficients, based on either an uncorrelated or a correlated noise model. The output of NS_TIDE consists of time series of subtidal water levels [mean water level (MWL)] and tidal properties (amplitudes and phases), expressed in terms of external forcing functions. The method was tested using records from a station on the Columbia River, 172 km from the ocean entrance, where the tides are strongly altered by river flow. NS_TIDE hindcast explains 96.4% of the signal variance with a root-mean-square error of 0.165 m obtained from 288 parameters, far better than traditional harmonic analysis (38.5%, 0.604 m, and 127 parameters). While keeping the benefits of harmonic analysis, its advantages compared to existing tidal analysis methods include its capacity to distinguish frequencies within tidal bands without losing resolution in the time domain or data at the endpoints of the time series.

On 11 March 2011, the Tohoku Tsunami overtopped a weir and penetrated 49 km up the Kitakami River, the fourth largest river in Japan [1]. Similarly, the 2010 Chile tsunami propagated at least 15 km up the Maule River [2]. In the Pacific Northwest of the United States, large tsunamis have occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone, most recently the ‘orphan tsunami’ of 1700 (Atwater et al. [3]). The expected future occurrence of a Cascadia tsunami and its penetration into the Lower Columbia River became the subject of “the Workshop on Tsunami Hydrodynamics in a Large River” held in Corvallis, Oregon, 2011. We found that tsunami penetration into the Columbia River is quite different from a typical river. The tsunami enters the vast river estuary through the relatively narrow river mouth of the Columbia, which damps and diffuses its energy. The tsunami transforms into a long period, small amplitude wave that advances to Portland, 173 km from the ocean. Understanding this unique tsunami behavior is important for preparing a forthcoming Cascadia tsunami event.

Following acute infection in some mouse models, CD4+ memory T cells steadily decline over time. Conversely, in humans, CD4+ memory T cells can be maintained for many years at levels similar to CD8+ T cells. Because we previously observed that the longevity of Th1 memory cell survival corresponded to their functional avidity, we hypothesized that secondary challenge, which enriches for high functional avidity Th1 responders, would result in more stable Th1 memory populations. We found that following a heterologous secondary challenge, Th1 memory cells were maintained at stable levels compared with primary Th1 memory cells, showing little to no decline after day 75 postinfection. The improved stability of secondary Th1 memory T cells corresponded to enhanced homeostatic turnover; enhanced trafficking of effector memory Th1 cells to tissue sites of infection, such as the liver; and acquisition or maintenance of high functional avidity following secondary challenge. Conversely, a weaker homologous rechallenge failed to induce a stable secondary Th1 memory population. Additionally, homologous secondary challenge resulted in a transient loss of functional avidity by Th1 memory cells recruited into the secondary response. Our findings suggest that the longevity of Th1 memory T cells is dependent, at least in part, on the combined effects of primary and secondary Ag-driven differentiation. Furthermore, they demonstrate that the quality of the secondary challenge can have profound effects on the longevity and function of the ensuing secondary Th1 memory population.

We compute rates of sediment removal from the Columbia River, USA plume near field using a control volume technique. By using data from repeated transect passes along the plume axis, we account for variations in plume width, depth, and velocity, and we construct a framework for determining the dominant terms in the complete sediment balance. The contribution due to turbulent sediment flux is estimated using collocated measurements of turbulent shear and suspended-sediment concentration. The maximum sediment clearance rate on the landward end of the transect, 4 km from the river mouth, is approximately 0.1 g m−2 s−1, which corresponds to an effective removal velocity of 10 mm s−1. This is significantly higher than the settling velocities expected for single-grain and aggregate particles observed in the estuary. The plume clearance rate decreases seaward, with values of 0.01 g m−2 s−1 6.5 km from the river mouth. We investigate several potential mechanisms to explain the along-axis variability in sediment removal, including gravitational settling of several particle-size distributions and removal by turbulent mixing. A simple model that accounts for the settling of the distribution of particles observed in the estuary with the addition of a very fine sand settling class best explains the observed magnitude and the seaward decrease in the sediment removal rate. Although it is unlikely that fine sands are retained in the plume from the estuary due to their high settling speeds, we hypothesize that they may be locally resuspended landward of the transect. The turbulent flux of sediment out of the plume is almost an order of magnitude smaller than the total removal rates observed on the landward end of the transect. However, the turbulent flux generally is greater than the removal rate predicted for unflocculated fine silt, indicating that it may be important for smaller particle size distributions or farther from shore.

Conventional MHC class Ia-restricted CD8+ T cells play a dominant role in the host response to virus infections, but recent studies indicate that T cells with specificity for nonclassical MHC class Ib molecules may also participate in host defense. To investigate the potential role of class Ib molecules in anti-viral immune responses, Kb−/−Db−/−CIITA−/− mice lacking expression of MHC class Ia and class II molecules were infected with lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV). These animals have a large class Ib-selected CD8+ T cell population and they were observed to mediate partial (but incomplete) virus clearance during acute LCMV infection as compared with Kb−/−Db−/−β2-microglobulin−/− mice that lack expression of both MHC class Ia and class Ib molecules. Infection was associated with expansion of splenic CD8+ T cells and induction of granzyme B and IFN-γ effector molecules in CD8+ T cells. Partial virus clearance was dependent on CD8+ cells. In vitro T cell restimulation assays demonstrated induction of a population of β2-microglobulin–dependent, MHC class Ib-restricted CD8+ T cells with specificity for viral Ags and yet to be defined nonclassical MHC molecules. MHC class Ib-restricted CD8+ T cell responses were also observed after infection of Kb−/−Db−/−mice despite the low number of CD8+ T cells in these animals. Long-term infection studies demonstrated chronic infection and gradual depletion of CD8+ T cells in Kb−/−Db−/−CIITA−/− mice, demonstrating that class Ia molecules are required for viral clearance. These findings demonstrate that class Ib-restricted CD8+ T cells have the potential to participate in the host immune response to LCMV.

This paper distinguishes human and climate influences on the Columbia River streamflow disturbance regime, examines how this disturbance regime has changed over the last 150 years, and discusses downstream impacts. Flow management and withdrawal have greatly curtailed exceedence of the natural bankfull level of ∼20 000 m3 s-1. The frequency distribution of Columbia River flow has also changed. Sediment transport is positively correlated with streamflow standard deviation, and has been greatly reduced by flow regulation. Three kinds of spring freshet style have been identified; there are also three kinds of winter freshet. Flow regulation and regional climate warming have changed freshet styles and reduced maximum flows during the spring season. Downstream effects of hydrological alterations include increased salinity intrusion length, loss of shallow water habitat area during the freshet season, increased tides throughout most of the year, and a decrease in area of the Columbia River plume during...

Summary Most hydrologic trends result from a combination of climatic and human influences, and analyses of hydrologic changes often do not differentiate these factors, despite the obvious relevance of this distinction. Here, we separate human and climate influences on the Columbia River hydrologic cycle and sediment discharge on the basis of robust data analyses since 1858. Human influences include water withdrawal for irrigation, flow regulation, reservoir manipulation, mining and deforestation. The Columbia’s streamflow and sediment discharge are strongly correlated with large-scale climate patterns, particularly the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The mean annual Columbia River virgin flow at The Dalles has decreased ∼16.5%, 8–9% due to climate change and 7–8% due to water withdrawal for irrigation. Climate impacts on the sediment discharge are larger than on streamflow because sediment discharge increases more than linearly with flow. Total sediment and sand transports have decreased >50% and >70% respectively, only a fraction of which is due to climate change. Changes in the timing of maximum flows from sub-basins, as influenced by flow regulation and irrigation withdrawal, determine freshet timing and play a larger role in determining the maximum flow and sediment transport levels. Flow regulation (since 1970) has decreased peak spring flows by ∼45% and increased flow during the rest of the year. The spring freshet flow decrease due to climate change is 11%; the decreases due to water withdrawal and flow regulation are about 12% and 26% respectively. The peak freshet flow now typically occurs 2–4 weeks earlier than before 1900.

A 170 km tidal channel connects the lower Columbia River ports of Portland and Vancouver to the Pacific Ocean. An increasing incidence of low water levels during summer and fall sometimes limits the draft of ships using the channel and can delay transits. Reduced spring freshet water levels have also decreased shallow-water habitat for juvenile salmon. Records from Tongue Point (km-30, 1925-date), and Vancouver (km-175, 1902-date) were used to analyze historic changes. Mean water levels (MWL) at Vancouver have dropped ∼0.3–1.5 m since 1902, depending on flow. Lower low water (LLW) at the lowest river flows has decreased ∼0.4–0.5 m since 1940. Vancouver LLW has dropped more than MWL and higher high water (HHW), increasing tidal range. Tides in the Columbia and many other river ports are evolving because of a combination of changing ocean tides and local alterations, including both harbor development and river-flow modification. Assessments of climate change impacts on harbors need to consider both factors.

The Columbia River had until recently the world's largest Chinook salmon runs. Restoration of the system's severely decimated runs requires understanding changes in the hydrologic variables (e.g. flow and sediment transport) important to salmonids. We describe here methods to distinguish the human and climate-induced contributions to Columbia River hydrologic processes relevant to the crucial seaward spring migration of juveniles through the tidal river and estuary. Flow regulation has caused most of the decrease in peak flow and sediment transport; it has contributed to changes in spring freshet timing. Climate change has reduced peak and average flows and sediment transport, changing spring-freshet timing by several weeks. Irrigation diversion has reduced the annual average flow as much as climate change. A better understanding of historical changes in hydrologic processes entailed in this paper tells us how management and climate have changed the Columbia River system over time. The separation of the climate and anthropogenic influences used here may assist in policy analyses and strategies aimed at restoration of the Columbia River endangered salmonids, and in management of other systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Columbia River tidal plume dynamics can be explained in terms of two asymmetries related to plume-front depth and internal wave generation. These asymmetries may be an important factor contributing to the observed greater primary productivity and phytoplankton standing crop on the Washington shelf. The tidal plume (the most recent ebb outflow from the estuary) is initially supercritical with respect to the frontal internal Froude number FR on strong ebbs. It is separated from the rotating plume bulge by a front, whose properties are very different under upwelling vs. downwelling conditions. Under summer upwelling conditions, tidal plume fronts are sharp and narrow ( FR and plume depth are key parameters in distinguishing the upwelling and downwelling situations, and these two asymmetries can be explained in terms of potential vorticity conservation. The divergence of the tidal outflow after it leaves the estuary embeds relative vorticity in the emerging tidal plume water mass. This vorticity controls the transition of the tidal plume front to a subcritical state and consequently the timing and location of internal wave generation by plume fronts.

The Columbia River plume is typical of large-scale, high discharge, mid-latitude plumes. In the absence of strong upwelling winds, freshwater from the river executes a rightward turn and forms an anticyclonic bulge before moving north along the Washington coast. In addition to the above dynamics, however, the river plume outflow is subject to large tides, which modify the structure of the plume in the region near the river mouth. Observations based on data acquired during a summer 2005 cruise indicate that the plume consists of four distinct water masses; source water at the lift-off point, and the tidal, re-circulating and far-field plumes. In contrast to most plume models that describe the discharge of low-salinity estuary water into ambient high-salinity coastal water, we describe the Columbia plume as the superposition of these four plume types. We focus primarily on a conceptual summary of the dynamics and mutual interaction of the tidal and re-circulating plumes. The new tidal plume flows over top of the re-circulating plume and is typically bounded by strong fronts. Soon after the end of ebb tide, it covers roughly 50–100% of the re-circulating plume surface area. The fronts may penetrate well below the re-circulating plume water and eventually spawn internal waves that mix the re-circulating plume further. The re-circulating plume persists throughout the tidal cycle and corresponds to a freshwater volume equivalent to 3–4 days of river discharge. Finally, the plume water masses are distinguished from one another in term of surface chlorophyll concentration, suggesting that the above classification may also describe different biological growth regimes. The low-salinity re-circulating plume serves as an extension of the estuary into the coastal ocean, or an “estuary at sea”, because residence times during periods of high river flow are greater than those in the estuary.