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As part of a public health behavior change and communication strategy related to the identification of a novel ebolavirus in bats in Sierra Leone in 2016, a consortium of experts launched an effort to create a widely accessible resource for community awareness and education on reducing disease risk. The resulting picture book, Living Safely With Bats, includes technical content developed by a consortium of experts in public health, animal health, conservation, bats, and disease ecology from 30 countries. The book has now been adapted, translated, and used in more than 20 countries in Africa and Asia. We review the processes used to integrate feedback from local stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts. We also provide recommendations for One Health and other practitioners who choose to pursue the development and evaluation of this or similar zoonotic disease risk mitigation tools.

As part of a broad One Health surveillance effort to detect novel viruses in wildlife and people, we report several paramyxovirus sequences sampled primarily from bats during 2013 and 2014 in Brazil and Malaysia, including seven from which we recovered full-length genomes. Of these, six represent the first full-length paramyxovirid genomes sequenced from the Americas, including two that are the first full-length bat morbillivirus genome sequences published to date. Our findings add to the vast number of viral sequences in public repositories, which have been increasing considerably in recent years due to the rising accessibility of metagenomics. Taxonomic classification of these sequences in the absence of phenotypic data has been a significant challenge, particularly in the subfamily Orthoparamyxovirinae, where the rate of discovery of novel sequences has been substantial. Using pairwise amino acid sequence classification (PAASC), we propose that five of these sequences belong to members of the genus Jeilongvirus and two belong to members of the genus Morbillivirus. We also highlight inconsistencies in the classification of Tupaia virus and Mòjiāng virus using the same demarcation criteria and suggest reclassification of these viruses into new genera. Importantly, this study underscores the critical importance of sequence length in PAASC analysis as well as the importance of biological characteristics such as genome organization in the taxonomic classification of viral sequences.

Host-virus associations have co-evolved under ecological and evolutionary selection pressures that shape cross-species transmission and spillover to humans. Observed virus-host associations provide relevant context for newly discovered wildlife viruses to assess knowledge gaps in host-range and estimate pathways for potential human infection. Using models to predict virus-host networks, we predicted the likelihood of humans as hosts for 513 newly discovered viruses detected by large-scale wildlife surveillance at high-risk animal-human interfaces in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Predictions indicated that novel coronaviruses are likely to infect a greater number of host species than viruses from other families. Our models further characterize novel viruses through prioritization scores and directly inform surveillance targets to identify host ranges for newly discovered viruses.

In an effort to strengthen global capacity to prevent, detect, and control infectious diseases in animals and people, the United States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) PREDICT project funded development of regional, national, and local One Health capacities for early disease detection, rapid response, disease control, and risk reduction. From the outset, the EPT approach was inclusive of social science research methods designed to understand the contexts and behaviors of communities living and working at human-animal-environment interfaces considered high-risk for virus emergence. Using qualitative and quantitative approaches, PREDICT behavioral research aimed to identify and assess a range of socio-cultural behaviors that could be influential in zoonotic disease emergence, amplification, and transmission. This broad approach to behavioral risk characterization enabled us to identify and characterize human activities that could be linked to the transmission dynamics of new and emerging viruses. This paper provides a discussion of implementation of a social science approach within a zoonotic surveillance framework. We conducted in-depth ethnographic interviews and focus groups to better understand the individual- and community-level knowledge, attitudes, and practices that potentially put participants at risk for zoonotic disease transmission from the animals they live and work with, across 6 interface domains. When we asked highly-exposed individuals (ie. bushmeat hunters, wildlife or guano farmers) about the risk they perceived in their occupational activities, most did not perceive it to be risky, whether because it was normalized by years (or generations) of doing such an activity, or due to lack of information about potential risks. Integrating the social sciences allows investigations of the specific human activities that are hypothesized to drive disease emergence, amplification, and transmission, in order to better substantiate behavioral disease drivers, along with the social dimensions of infection and transmission dynamics. Understanding these dynamics is critical to achieving health security--the protection from threats to health-- which requires investments in both collective and individual health security. Involving behavioral sciences into zoonotic disease surveillance allowed us to push toward fuller community integration and engagement and toward dialogue and implementation of recommendations for disease prevention and improved health security.

Henipaviruses are batborne zoonoses that have caused fatal neurologic and respiratory disease outbreaks in humans, horses, and pigs. In Bangladesh, the Indian flying fox (Pteropus medius) is the known natural [...]

The death toll and economic loss resulting from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are stark reminders that we are vulnerable to zoonotic viral threats. Strategies are needed to identify and characterize animal viruses that pose the greatest risk of spillover and spread in humans and inform public health interventions. Using expert opinion and scientific evidence, we identified host, viral, and environmental risk factors contributing to zoonotic virus spillover and spread in humans. We then developed a risk ranking framework and interactive web tool, SpillOver, that estimates a risk score for wildlife-origin viruses, creating a comparative risk assessment of viruses with uncharacterized zoonotic spillover potential alongside those already known to be zoonotic. Using data from testing 509,721 samples from 74,635 animals as part of a virus discovery project and public records of virus detections around the world, we ranked the spillover potential of 887 wildlife viruses. Validating the risk assessment, the top 12 were known zoonotic viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Several newly detected wildlife viruses ranked higher than known zoonotic viruses. Using a scientifically informed process, we capitalized on the recent wealth of virus discovery data to systematically identify and prioritize targets for investigation. The publicly accessible SpillOver platform can be used by policy makers and health scientists to inform research and public health interventions for prevention and rapid control of disease outbreaks. SpillOver is a living, interactive database that can be refined over time to continue to improve the quality and public availability of information on viral threats to human health.

Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging bat-borne zoonotic virus that causes near-annual outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in South Asia-one of the most populous regions on Earth. In Bangladesh, infection occurs when people drink date-palm sap contaminated with bat excreta. Outbreaks are sporadic, and the influence of viral dynamics in bats on their temporal and spatial distribution is poorly understood. We analyzed data on host ecology, molecular epidemiology, serological dynamics, and viral genetics to characterize spatiotemporal patterns of NiV dynamics in its wildlife reservoir, Pteropus medius bats, in Bangladesh. We found that NiV transmission occurred throughout the country and throughout the year. Model results indicated that local transmission dynamics were modulated by density-dependent transmission, acquired immunity that is lost over time, and recrudescence. Increased transmission followed multiyear periods of declining seroprevalence due to bat-population turnover and individual loss of humoral immunity. Individual bats had smaller host ranges than other Pteropus species (spp.), although movement data and the discovery of a Malaysia-clade NiV strain in eastern Bangladesh suggest connectivity with bats east of Bangladesh. These data suggest that discrete multiannual local epizootics in bat populations contribute to the sporadic nature of NiV outbreaks in South Asia. At the same time, the broad spatial and temporal extent of NiV transmission, including the recent outbreak in Kerala, India, highlights the continued risk of spillover to humans wherever they may interact with pteropid bats and the importance of limiting opportunities for spillover throughout Pteropuss range.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

Nipah virus is a paramyxovirus (genus Henipavirus) that has caused outbreaks of neurologic and respiratory disease in humans and livestock in Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines (2-4). The [...]

Authors of the March WHO report into how COVID-19 emerged warn that further delay makes crucial inquiry biologically difficult. Authors of the March WHO report into how COVID-19 emerged warn that further delay makes crucial inquiry biologically difficult., Author(s): Marion Koopmans, Peter Daszak, Vladimir G. Dedkov, Dominic E. Dwyer, Elmoubasher Farag, Thea K. Fischer, David T. S. Hayman, Fabian Leendertz, Ken Maeda, Hung Nguyen-Viet, John Watson Author Affiliations: [...]

Since the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrom Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) it has become increasingly clear that bats are important reservoirs of CoVs. Despite this, only 6% of all CoV sequences in GenBank are from bats. The remaining 94% largely consist of known pathogens of public health or agricultural significance, indicating that current research effort is heavily biased towards describing known diseases rather than the 'pre-emergent' diversity in bats. Our study addresses this critical gap, and focuses on resource poor countries where the risk of zoonotic emergence is believed to be highest. We surveyed the diversity of CoVs in multiple host taxa from twenty countries to explore the factors driving viral diversity at a global scale. We identified sequences representing 100 discrete phylogenetic clusters, ninety-one of which were found in bats, and used ecological and epidemiologic analyses to show that patterns of CoV diversity correlate with those of bat diversity. This cements bats as the major evolutionary reservoirs and ecological drivers of CoV diversity. Co-phylogenetic reconciliation analysis was also used to show that host switching has contributed to CoV evolution, and a preliminary analysis suggests that regional variation exists in the dynamics of this process. Overall our study represents a model for exploring global viral diversity and advances our fundamental understanding of CoV biodiversity and the potential risk factors associated with zoonotic emergence.

Certain bat species serve as natural reservoirs for pathogens in several key viral families including henipa-, lyssa-, corona-, and filoviruses, which may pose serious threats to human health. The Common Vampire Bat (Desmodus rotundus), due to its abundance, sanguivorous feeding habit involving humans and domestic animals, and highly social behavioral ecology, may have an unusually high potential for interspecies disease transmission. Previous studies have investigated rabies dynamics in D. rotundus, yet the diversity of other viruses, bacteria, and other microbes that these bats may carry remains largely unknown. We screened 396 blood, urine, saliva, and fecal samples from D. rotundus captured in Guatemala for 13 viral families and genera. Positive results were found for rhabdovirus, adenovirus, and herpesvirus assays. We also screened these samples for Bartonella spp. and found that 38% of individuals tested positive. To characterize potential for interspecies transmission associated with feeding behavior, we also analyzed cytochrome B sequences from fecal samples to identify prey species and found that domestic cattle (Bos taurus) made up the majority of blood meals. Our findings suggest that the risk of pathogen spillover from Desmodus rotundus, including between domestic animal species, is possible and warrants further investigation to characterize this microbial diversity and expand our understanding of foraging ecology in their populations.

Introduction: Bats are considered the natural reservoirs of several viruses including coronaviruses (CoVs), two genera of which, alphaand betacoronaviruses, infect humans. Despite widespread screening of bat samples for novel viruses, information on the diversity of coronaviruses in bats inhabiting Russian territory remains scarce. Here, we analyzed the presence and diversity of alphacoronaviruses (Alpha-CoVs) in bats from European Russia. Methods: Fourty three fecal samples from bats of 8 species: P. nathusii, P. kuhlii, M. brandtii, M. daubentonii, N. noctula, V. murinus, M. dasycneme, and P. auritus were taken to study. Results and discussion: We detected Alpha-CoV RdRp gene fragments in 30% (13/43) of samples examined in 75% (6/8) of species sampled. Phylogenetic analysis of RdRp showed that most of the identified Alpha-CoV sequences fall into clades within the Pedacovirus subgenus, with minor clusters of nyctacoviruses or myotacoviruses. We assert that closely related pedacoviruses have been circulating for a long time (from 2015 to 2021) in a large region from European Russia to Northern Europe. We propose that closely related pedacoviruses collected from common areas represent a separate species, which we name NE-Alpha coronavirus, with its host being bats of the genus Pipistrellus that inhabit a region from the European part of Russia to Northern Europe. Among the animals sampled, 4.6% (2/43) carried two Alpha-CoVs related to different subgenera (pedacovirus/myotacovirus or pedacovirus/ nyctacovirus) simultaneously. We confirmed the presence of two different Alpha-CoV subgenera related to pedacovirus and nyctacovirus in P. kuhlii captured in 2021 and kept in captivity using whole genome sequencing of these viruses. The presence of two or more coronaviruses in one individual animal host is an essential prerequisite for recombination to occur. We also obtained two Alpha-CoV whole genomes from two specimens of P. nathusii captured in 2015. The genomic organization of BatCoV/MOW15-21 and BatCoV/ MOW15-23 was similar to other Alpha-CoVs, but the assembled genomes contained a long insertion in the ORF1ab gene which has not been described in other Alpha-CoVs, except for a single sequence from P. nathusii captured in the Netherlands. We propose that the insertion encodes a previously undescribed domain of unknown function, probably related to the SEA domain superfamily. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

UnlabelledThe increasing number of zoonotic infections caused by influenza A virus (IAV) subtypes of avian origin (e.g., H5N1 and H7N9) in recent years underscores the need to better understand the factors driving IAV evolution and diversity. To evaluate the current feasibility of global analyses to contribute to this aim, we evaluated information in the public domain to explore IAV evolutionary dynamics, including nucleotide substitution rates and selection pressures, using 14 IAV subtypes in 32 different countries over a 12-year period (2000 to 2011). Using geospatial information from 39,785 IAV strains, we examined associations between subtype diversity and socioeconomic, biodiversity, and agricultural indices. Our analyses showed that nucleotide substitution rates for 11 of the 14 evaluated subtypes tended to be higher in Asian countries, particularly in East Asia, than in Canada and the United States. Similarly, at a regional level, subtypes H5N1, H5N2, and H6N2 exhibited significantly higher substitution rates in East Asia than in North America. In contrast, the selection pressures (measured as ratios of nonsynonymous to synonymous evolutionary changes [dN/dS ratios]) acting on individual subtypes showed little geographic variation. We found that the strongest predictors for the detected subtype diversity at the country level were reporting effort (i.e., total number of strains reported) and health care spending (an indicator of economic development). Our analyses also identified major global gaps in IAV reporting (including a lack of sequences submitted from large portions of Africa and South America and a lack of geolocation information) and in broad subtype testing which, until addressed, will continue to hinder efforts to track the evolution and diversity of IAV around the world.ImportanceIn recent years, an increasing number of influenza A virus (IAV) subtypes, including H5N1, H7N9, and H10N8, have been detected in humans. High fatality rates have led to an increased urgency to better understand where and how novel pathogenic influenza virus strains emerge. Our findings showed that mutational rates of 11 commonly encountered subtypes were higher in East Asian countries than in North America, suggesting that there may be a greater risk for the emergence of novel pathogenic strains in East Asia. In assessing the potential drivers of IAV subtype diversity, our analyses confirmed that reporting effort and health care spending were the best predictors of the observed subtype diversity at the country level. These findings underscore the need to increase sampling and reporting efforts for all subtypes in many undersampled countries throughout the world.

Most human infectious diseases, especially recently emerging pathogens, originate from animals, and ongoing disease transmission from animals to people presents a significant global health burden. Recognition of the epidemiologic circumstances involved in zoonotic spillover, amplification, and spread of diseases is essential for prioritizing surveillance and predicting future disease emergence risk. We examine the animal hosts and transmission mechanisms involved in spillover of zoonotic viruses to date, and discover that viruses with high host plasticity (i.e. taxonomically and ecologically diverse host range) were more likely to amplify viral spillover by secondary human-to-human transmission and have broader geographic spread. Viruses transmitted to humans during practices that facilitate mixing of diverse animal species had significantly higher host plasticity. Our findings suggest that animal-to-human spillover of new viruses that are capable of infecting diverse host species signal emerging disease events with higher pandemic potential in that these viruses are more likely to amplify by human-to-human transmission with spread on a global scale.

It is currently unclear whether changes in viral communities will ever be predictable. Here we investigate whether viral communities in wildlife are inherently structured (inferring predictability) by looking at whether communities are assembled through deterministic (often predictable) or stochastic (not predictable) processes. We sample macaque faeces across nine sites in Bangladesh and use consensus PCR and sequencing to discover 184 viruses from 14 viral families. We then use network modelling and statistical null-hypothesis testing to show the presence of non-random deterministic patterns at different scales, between sites and within individuals. We show that the effects of determinism are not absolute however, as stochastic patterns are also observed. In showing that determinism is an important process in viral community assembly we conclude that it should be possible to forecast changes to some portion of a viral community, however there will always be some portion for which prediction will be unlikely.

We used literature searches and a database of all reported emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) to analyze the most important transmission pathways (e.g., vector-borne, aerosol droplet transmitted) for emerging zoonoses. Our results suggest that at the broad scale, the likelihood of transmission occurring through any one pathway is approximately equal. However, the major transmission pathways for zoonoses differ widely according to the specific underlying drivers of EID events (e.g., land-use change, agricultural intensification). These results can be used to develop better targeting of surveillance for, and more effective control of newly emerged zoonoses in regions under different underlying pressures that drive disease emergence.

Wild birds play a major role in the evolution, maintenance, and spread of avian influenza viruses. However, surveillance for these viruses in wild birds is sporadic, geographically biased, and often limited to the last outbreak virus. To identify opportunities to optimize wild bird surveillance for understanding viral diversity, we reviewed responses to a World Organisation for Animal Health-administered survey, government reports to this organization, articles on Web of Knowledge, and the Influenza Research Database. At least 119 countries conducted avian influenza virus surveillance in wild birds during 2008-2013, but coordination and standardization was lacking among surveillance efforts, and most focused on limited subsets of influenza viruses. Given high financial and public health burdens of recent avian influenza outbreaks, we call for sustained, cost-effective investments in locations with high avian influenza diversity in wild birds and efforts to promote standardized sampling, testing, and reporting methods, including full-genome sequencing and sharing of isolates with the scientific community.

AimInternational trade in plants and animals generates significant economic benefits. It also leads to substantial unintended impacts when introduced species become invasive, causing environmental disturbance or transmitting diseases that affect people, livestock, other wildlife or the environment. Policy responses are usually only implemented after these species become established and damages are already incurred. International agreements to control trade are likewise usually based on selection of species with known impacts. We aim to further develop quantitative invasive species risk assessment for bird imports and extend the tool to explicitly address disease threats.LocationUnited States of America.MethodsWe use a two-step approach for rapid risk assessment based on the expected biological risks due to both the environmental and health impact of a potentially invasive wildlife species in trade. We assess establishment probability based on a model informed by historical observations and then construct a model of emerging infectious disease threat based on economic and ecological characteristics of the exporting country.ResultsWe illustrate how our rapid assessment tool can be used to identify high-priority species for regulation based on a combination of the threat they pose for becoming established and vectoring emerging infectious diseases.Main conclusionsOur approach can be executed for a species in a matter of days and is nested in an economic decision-making framework for determining whether the biological risk is justified by trade benefits.

Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as "economic epidemiology" or "epidemiological economics," the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.

Zoonotic transmission of lethal henipaviruses (HNVs) from their natural fruit bat reservoirs to humans has only been reported in Australia and South/Southeast Asia. However, a recent study discovered numerous HNV clades in African bat samples. To determine the potential for HNV spillover events among humans in Africa, here we examine well-curated sets of bat (Eidolon helvum, n = 44) and human (n = 497) serum samples from Cameroon for Nipah virus (NiV) cross-neutralizing antibodies (NiV-X-Nabs). Using a vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV)-based pseudoparticle seroneutralization assay, we detect NiV-X-Nabs in 48% and 3-4% of the bat and human samples, respectively. Seropositive human samples are found almost exclusively in individuals who reported butchering bats for bushmeat. Seropositive human sera also neutralize Hendra virus and Gh-M74a (an African HNV) pseudoparticles, as well as live NiV. Butchering bat meat and living in areas undergoing deforestation are the most significant risk factors associated with seropositivity. Evidence for HNV spillover events warrants increased surveillance efforts.