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A fundamental problem in network experiments is selecting an appropriate experimental design in order to precisely estimate a given causal effect of interest. In fact, optimal rates of estimation remain unknown for essentially all causal effects in network experiments. In this work, we propose a general approach for constructing experiment designs under network interference with the goal of precisely estimating a pre-specified causal effect. A central aspect of our approach is the notion of a conflict graph, which captures the fundamental unobservability associated with the casual effect and the underlying network. We refer to our experimental design as the Conflict Graph Design. In order to estimate effects, we propose a modified Horvitz--Thompson estimator. We show that its variance under the Conflict Graph Design is bounded as $O(\lambda(H) / n )$, where $\lambda(H)$ is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of the conflict graph. These rates depend on both the underlying network and the particular causal effect under investigation. Not only does this yield the best known rates of estimation for several well-studied causal effects (e.g. the global and direct effects) but it also provides new methods for effects which have received less attention from the perspective of experiment design (e.g. spill-over effects). Our results corroborate two implicitly understood points in the literature: (1) that in order to increase precision, experiment designs should be tailored to specific causal effects of interest and (2) that "more local" effects are easier to estimate than "more global" effects. In addition to point estimation, we construct conservative variance estimators which facilitate the construction of asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the casual effect of interest.

The quality of generative models depends on the quality of the data they are trained on. Creating large-scale, high-quality datasets is often expensive and sometimes impossible, e.g. in certain scientific applications where there is no access to clean data due to physical or instrumentation constraints. Ambient Diffusion and related frameworks train diffusion models with solely corrupted data (which are usually cheaper to acquire) but ambient models significantly underperform models trained on clean data. We study this phenomenon at scale by training more than $80$ models on data with different corruption levels across three datasets ranging from $30,000$ to $\approx 1.3$M samples. We show that it is impossible, at these sample sizes, to match the performance of models trained on clean data when only training on noisy data. Yet, a combination of a small set of clean data (e.g.~$10\%$ of the total dataset) and a large set of highly noisy data suffices to reach the performance of models trained solely on similar-size datasets of clean data, and in particular to achieve near state-of-the-art performance. We provide theoretical evidence for our findings by developing novel sample complexity bounds for learning from Gaussian Mixtures with heterogeneous variances. Our theoretical model suggests that, for large enough datasets, the effective marginal utility of a noisy sample is exponentially worse than that of a clean sample. Providing a small set of clean samples can significantly reduce the sample size requirements for noisy data, as we also observe in our experiments., Comment: Work in progress

Learning algorithms are often used to make decisions in sequential decision-making environments. In multi-agent settings, the decisions of each agent can affect the utilities/losses of the other agents. Therefore, if an agent is good at anticipating the behavior of the other agents, in particular how they will make decisions in each round as a function of their experience that far, it could try to judiciously make its own decisions over the rounds of the interaction so as to influence the other agents to behave in a way that ultimately benefits its own utility. In this paper, we study repeated two-player games involving two types of agents: a learner, which employs an online learning algorithm to choose its strategy in each round; and an optimizer, which knows the learner's utility function and the learner's online learning algorithm. The optimizer wants to plan ahead to maximize its own utility, while taking into account the learner's behavior. We provide two results: a positive result for repeated zero-sum games and a negative result for repeated general-sum games. Our positive result is an algorithm for the optimizer, which exactly maximizes its utility against a learner that plays the Replicator Dynamics -- the continuous-time analogue of Multiplicative Weights Update (MWU). Additionally, we use this result to provide an algorithm for the optimizer against MWU, i.e.~for the discrete-time setting, which guarantees an average utility for the optimizer that is higher than the value of the one-shot game. Our negative result shows that, unless P=NP, there is no Fully Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme (FPTAS) for maximizing the utility of an optimizer against a learner that best-responds to the history in each round. Yet, this still leaves open the question of whether there exists a polynomial-time algorithm that optimizes the utility up to $o(T)$.

A set of probabilistic forecasts is calibrated if each prediction of the forecaster closely approximates the empirical distribution of outcomes on the subset of timesteps where that prediction was made. We study the fundamental problem of online calibrated forecasting of binary sequences, which was initially studied by Foster & Vohra (1998). They derived an algorithm with $O(T^{2/3})$ calibration error after $T$ time steps, and showed a lower bound of $\Omega(T^{1/2})$. These bounds remained stagnant for two decades, until Qiao & Valiant (2021) improved the lower bound to $\Omega(T^{0.528})$ by introducing a combinatorial game called sign preservation and showing that lower bounds for this game imply lower bounds for calibration. In this paper, we give the first improvement to the $O(T^{2/3})$ upper bound on calibration error of Foster & Vohra. We do this by introducing a variant of Qiao & Valiant's game that we call sign preservation with reuse (SPR). We prove that the relationship between SPR and calibrated forecasting is bidirectional: not only do lower bounds for SPR translate into lower bounds for calibration, but algorithms for SPR also translate into new algorithms for calibrated forecasting. We then give an improved \emph{upper bound} for the SPR game, which implies, via our equivalence, a forecasting algorithm with calibration error $O(T^{2/3 - \varepsilon})$ for some $\varepsilon > 0$, improving Foster & Vohra's upper bound for the first time. Using similar ideas, we then prove a slightly stronger lower bound than that of Qiao & Valiant, namely $\Omega(T^{0.54389})$. Our lower bound is obtained by an oblivious adversary, marking the first $\omega(T^{1/2})$ calibration lower bound for oblivious adversaries.

Recent simultaneous works by Peng and Rubinstein [2024] and Dagan et al. [2024] have demonstrated the existence of a no-swap-regret learning algorithm that can reach $\epsilon$ average swap regret against an adversary in any extensive-form game within $m^{\tilde{\mathcal O}(1/\epsilon)}$ rounds, where $m$ is the number of nodes in the game tree. However, the question of whether a $\mathrm{poly}(m, 1/\epsilon)$-round algorithm could exist remained open. In this paper, we show a lower bound that precludes the existence of such an algorithm. In particular, we show that achieving average swap regret $\epsilon$ against an oblivious adversary in general extensive-form games requires at least $\mathrm{exp}\left(\Omega\left(\min\left\{m^{1/14}, \epsilon^{-1/6}\right\}\right)\right)$ rounds.

The empirical risk minimization (ERM) principle has been highly impactful in machine learning, leading both to near-optimal theoretical guarantees for ERM-based learning algorithms as well as driving many of the recent empirical successes in deep learning. In this paper, we investigate the question of whether the ability to perform ERM, which computes a hypothesis minimizing empirical risk on a given dataset, is necessary for efficient learning: in particular, is there a weaker oracle than ERM which can nevertheless enable learnability? We answer this question affirmatively, showing that in the realizable setting of PAC learning for binary classification, a concept class can be learned using an oracle which only returns a single bit indicating whether a given dataset is realizable by some concept in the class. The sample complexity and oracle complexity of our algorithm depend polynomially on the VC dimension of the hypothesis class, thus showing that there is only a polynomial price to pay for use of our weaker oracle. Our results extend to the agnostic learning setting with a slight strengthening of the oracle, as well as to the partial concept, multiclass and real-valued learning settings. In the setting of partial concept classes, prior to our work no oracle-efficient algorithms were known, even with a standard ERM oracle. Thus, our results address a question of Alon et al. (2021) who asked whether there are algorithmic principles which enable efficient learnability in this setting., Comment: COLT 2024

We study computational and statistical aspects of learning Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs). In this model, the learner interacts with an MDP drawn at the beginning of each epoch from an unknown mixture of MDPs. To sidestep known impossibility results, we consider several notions of separation of the constituent MDPs. The main thrust of this paper is in establishing a nearly-sharp *statistical threshold* for the horizon length necessary for efficient learning. On the computational side, we show that under a weaker assumption of separability under the optimal policy, there is a quasi-polynomial algorithm with time complexity scaling in terms of the statistical threshold. We further show a near-matching time complexity lower bound under the exponential time hypothesis., Comment: COLT 2024

Ambient diffusion is a recently proposed framework for training diffusion models using corrupted data. Both Ambient Diffusion and alternative SURE-based approaches for learning diffusion models from corrupted data resort to approximations which deteriorate performance. We present the first framework for training diffusion models that provably sample from the uncorrupted distribution given only noisy training data, solving an open problem in this space. Our key technical contribution is a method that uses a double application of Tweedie's formula and a consistency loss function that allows us to extend sampling at noise levels below the observed data noise. We also provide further evidence that diffusion models memorize from their training sets by identifying extremely corrupted images that are almost perfectly reconstructed, raising copyright and privacy concerns. Our method for training using corrupted samples can be used to mitigate this problem. We demonstrate this by fine-tuning Stable Diffusion XL to generate samples from a distribution using only noisy samples. Our framework reduces the amount of memorization of the fine-tuning dataset, while maintaining competitive performance., Comment: Accepted to ICML 2024

While Online Gradient Descent and other no-regret learning procedures are known to efficiently converge to a coarse correlated equilibrium in games where each agent's utility is concave in their own strategy, this is not the case when utilities are non-concave -- a common scenario in machine learning applications involving strategies parameterized by deep neural networks, or when agents' utilities are computed by neural networks, or both. Non-concave games introduce significant game-theoretic and optimization challenges: (i) Nash equilibria may not exist; (ii) local Nash equilibria, though existing, are intractable; and (iii) mixed Nash, correlated, and coarse correlated equilibria generally have infinite support and are intractable. To sidestep these challenges, we revisit the classical solution concept of $\Phi$-equilibria introduced by Greenwald and Jafari [2003], which is guaranteed to exist for an arbitrary set of strategy modifications $\Phi$ even in non-concave games [Stoltz and Lugosi, 2007]. However, the tractability of $\Phi$-equilibria in such games remains elusive. In this paper, we initiate the study of tractable $\Phi$-equilibria in non-concave games and examine several natural families of strategy modifications. We show that when $\Phi$ is finite, there exists an efficient uncoupled learning algorithm that converges to the corresponding $\Phi$-equilibria. Additionally, we explore cases where $\Phi$ is infinite but consists of local modifications, showing that Online Gradient Descent can efficiently approximate $\Phi$-equilibria in non-trivial regimes., Comment: 48 pages; Add new algorithmic and lower-bound results

We provide a novel reduction from swap-regret minimization to external-regret minimization, which improves upon the classical reductions of Blum-Mansour [BM07] and Stolz-Lugosi [SL05] in that it does not require finiteness of the space of actions. We show that, whenever there exists a no-external-regret algorithm for some hypothesis class, there must also exist a no-swap-regret algorithm for that same class. For the problem of learning with expert advice, our result implies that it is possible to guarantee that the swap regret is bounded by {\epsilon} after $\log(N)^{O(1/\epsilon)}$ rounds and with $O(N)$ per iteration complexity, where $N$ is the number of experts, while the classical reductions of Blum-Mansour and Stolz-Lugosi require $O(N/\epsilon^2)$ rounds and at least $\Omega(N^2)$ per iteration complexity. Our result comes with an associated lower bound, which -- in contrast to that in [BM07] -- holds for oblivious and $\ell_1$-constrained adversaries and learners that can employ distributions over experts, showing that the number of rounds must be $\tilde\Omega(N/\epsilon^2)$ or exponential in $1/\epsilon$. Our reduction implies that, if no-regret learning is possible in some game, then this game must have approximate correlated equilibria, of arbitrarily good approximation. This strengthens the folklore implication of no-regret learning that approximate coarse correlated equilibria exist. Importantly, it provides a sufficient condition for the existence of correlated equilibrium which vastly extends the requirement that the action set is finite, thus answering a question left open by [DG22; Ass+23]. Moreover, it answers several outstanding questions about equilibrium computation and learning in games.

A fundamental shortcoming of the concept of Nash equilibrium is its computational intractability: approximating Nash equilibria in normal-form games is PPAD-hard. In this paper, inspired by the ideas of smoothed analysis, we introduce a relaxed variant of Nash equilibrium called $\sigma$-smooth Nash equilibrium, for a smoothness parameter $\sigma$. In a $\sigma$-smooth Nash equilibrium, players only need to achieve utility at least as high as their best deviation to a $\sigma$-smooth strategy, which is a distribution that does not put too much mass (as parametrized by $\sigma$) on any fixed action. We distinguish two variants of $\sigma$-smooth Nash equilibria: strong $\sigma$-smooth Nash equilibria, in which players are required to play $\sigma$-smooth strategies under equilibrium play, and weak $\sigma$-smooth Nash equilibria, where there is no such requirement. We show that both weak and strong $\sigma$-smooth Nash equilibria have superior computational properties to Nash equilibria: when $\sigma$ as well as an approximation parameter $\epsilon$ and the number of players are all constants, there is a constant-time randomized algorithm to find a weak $\epsilon$-approximate $\sigma$-smooth Nash equilibrium in normal-form games. In the same parameter regime, there is a polynomial-time deterministic algorithm to find a strong $\epsilon$-approximate $\sigma$-smooth Nash equilibrium in a normal-form game. These results stand in contrast to the optimal algorithm for computing $\epsilon$-approximate Nash equilibria, which cannot run in faster than quasipolynomial-time. We complement our upper bounds by showing that when either $\sigma$ or $\epsilon$ is an inverse polynomial, finding a weak $\epsilon$-approximate $\sigma$-smooth Nash equilibria becomes computationally intractable.

While ERM suffices to attain near-optimal generalization error in the stochastic learning setting, this is not known to be the case in the online learning setting, where algorithms for general concept classes rely on computationally inefficient oracles such as the Standard Optimal Algorithm (SOA). In this work, we propose an algorithm for online binary classification setting that relies solely on ERM oracle calls, and show that it has finite regret in the realizable setting and sublinearly growing regret in the agnostic setting. We bound the regret in terms of the Littlestone and threshold dimensions of the underlying concept class. We obtain similar results for nonparametric games, where the ERM oracle can be interpreted as a best response oracle, finding the best response of a player to a given history of play of the other players. In this setting, we provide learning algorithms that only rely on best response oracles and converge to approximate-minimax equilibria in two-player zero-sum games and approximate coarse correlated equilibria in multi-player general-sum games, as long as the game has a bounded fat-threshold dimension. Our algorithms apply to both binary-valued and real-valued games and can be viewed as providing justification for the wide use of double oracle and multiple oracle algorithms in the practice of solving large games., Comment: In COLT2023

Imperfect score-matching leads to a shift between the training and the sampling distribution of diffusion models. Due to the recursive nature of the generation process, errors in previous steps yield sampling iterates that drift away from the training distribution. Yet, the standard training objective via Denoising Score Matching (DSM) is only designed to optimize over non-drifted data. To train on drifted data, we propose to enforce a \emph{consistency} property which states that predictions of the model on its own generated data are consistent across time. Theoretically, we show that if the score is learned perfectly on some non-drifted points (via DSM) and if the consistency property is enforced everywhere, then the score is learned accurately everywhere. Empirically we show that our novel training objective yields state-of-the-art results for conditional and unconditional generation in CIFAR-10 and baseline improvements in AFHQ and FFHQ. We open-source our code and models: https://github.com/giannisdaras/cdm, Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures

We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of the dynamics of $n^{th}$-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable $m$-step stochastic numerical integrators. We introduce different formulations and training methods for learning models of stochastic dynamics based on observation of trajectory samples. We develop approaches using discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. The adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems., Comment: 7 figures

We provide time- and sample-efficient algorithms for learning and testing latent-tree Ising models, i.e. Ising models that may only be observed at their leaf nodes. On the learning side, we obtain efficient algorithms for learning a tree-structured Ising model whose leaf node distribution is close in Total Variation Distance, improving on the results of prior work. On the testing side, we provide an efficient algorithm with fewer samples for testing whether two latent-tree Ising models have leaf-node distributions that are close or far in Total Variation distance. We obtain our algorithms by showing novel localization results for the total variation distance between the leaf-node distributions of tree-structured Ising models, in terms of their marginals on pairs of leaves.

We study the optimization landscape of the log-likelihood function and the convergence of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in latent Gaussian tree models, i.e. tree-structured Gaussian graphical models whose leaf nodes are observable and non-leaf nodes are unobservable. We show that the unique non-trivial stationary point of the population log-likelihood is its global maximum, and establish that the expectation-maximization algorithm is guaranteed to converge to it in the single latent variable case. Our results for the landscape of the log-likelihood function in general latent tree models provide support for the extensive practical use of maximum likelihood based-methods in this setting. Our results for the EM algorithm extend an emerging line of work on obtaining global convergence guarantees for this celebrated algorithm. We show our results for the non-trivial stationary points of the log-likelihood by arguing that a certain system of polynomial equations obtained from the EM updates has a unique non-trivial solution. The global convergence of the EM algorithm follows by arguing that all trivial fixed points are higher-order saddle points.

Min-max optimization problems involving nonconvex-nonconcave objectives have found important applications in adversarial training and other multi-agent learning settings. Yet, no known gradient descent-based method is guaranteed to converge to (even local notions of) min-max equilibrium in the nonconvex-nonconcave setting. For all known methods, there exist relatively simple objectives for which they cycle or exhibit other undesirable behavior different from converging to a point, let alone to some game-theoretically meaningful one~\cite{flokas2019poincare,hsieh2021limits}. The only known convergence guarantees hold under the strong assumption that the initialization is very close to a local min-max equilibrium~\cite{wang2019solving}. Moreover, the afore-described challenges are not just theoretical curiosities. All known methods are unstable in practice, even in simple settings. We propose the first method that is guaranteed to converge to a local min-max equilibrium for smooth nonconvex-nonconcave objectives. Our method is second-order and provably escapes limit cycles as long as it is initialized at an easy-to-find initial point. Both the definition of our method and its convergence analysis are motivated by the topological nature of the problem. In particular, our method is not designed to decrease some potential function, such as the distance of its iterate from the set of local min-max equilibria or the projected gradient of the objective, but is designed to satisfy a topological property that guarantees the avoidance of cycles and implies its convergence.

Truncated linear regression is a classical challenge in Statistics, wherein a label, $y = w^T x + \varepsilon$, and its corresponding feature vector, $x \in \mathbb{R}^k$, are only observed if the label falls in some subset $S \subseteq \mathbb{R}$; otherwise the existence of the pair $(x, y)$ is hidden from observation. Linear regression with truncated observations has remained a challenge, in its general form, since the early works of~\citet{tobin1958estimation,amemiya1973regression}. When the distribution of the error is normal with known variance, recent work of~\citet{daskalakis2019truncatedregression} provides computationally and statistically efficient estimators of the linear model, $w$. In this paper, we provide the first computationally and statistically efficient estimators for truncated linear regression when the noise variance is unknown, estimating both the linear model and the variance of the noise. Our estimator is based on an efficient implementation of Projected Stochastic Gradient Descent on the negative log-likelihood of the truncated sample. Importantly, we show that the error of our estimates is asymptotically normal, and we use this to provide explicit confidence regions for our estimates.

We prove fast mixing and characterize the stationary distribution of the Langevin Algorithm for inverting random weighted DNN generators. This result extends the work of Hand and Voroninski from efficient inversion to efficient posterior sampling. In practice, to allow for increased expressivity, we propose to do posterior sampling in the latent space of a pre-trained generative model. To achieve that, we train a score-based model in the latent space of a StyleGAN-2 and we use it to solve inverse problems. Our framework, Score-Guided Intermediate Layer Optimization (SGILO), extends prior work by replacing the sparsity regularization with a generative prior in the intermediate layer. Experimentally, we obtain significant improvements over the previous state-of-the-art, especially in the low measurement regime., Comment: Accepted to ICML 2022. 32 pages, 9 Figures

In the classical setting of self-selection, the goal is to learn $k$ models, simultaneously from observations $(x^{(i)}, y^{(i)})$ where $y^{(i)}$ is the output of one of $k$ underlying models on input $x^{(i)}$. In contrast to mixture models, where we observe the output of a randomly selected model, here the observed model depends on the outputs themselves, and is determined by some known selection criterion. For example, we might observe the highest output, the smallest output, or the median output of the $k$ models. In known-index self-selection, the identity of the observed model output is observable; in unknown-index self-selection, it is not. Self-selection has a long history in Econometrics and applications in various theoretical and applied fields, including treatment effect estimation, imitation learning, learning from strategically reported data, and learning from markets at disequilibrium. In this work, we present the first computationally and statistically efficient estimation algorithms for the most standard setting of this problem where the models are linear. In the known-index case, we require poly$(1/\varepsilon, k, d)$ sample and time complexity to estimate all model parameters to accuracy $\varepsilon$ in $d$ dimensions, and can accommodate quite general selection criteria. In the more challenging unknown-index case, even the identifiability of the linear models (from infinitely many samples) was not known. We show three results in this case for the commonly studied $\max$ self-selection criterion: (1) we show that the linear models are indeed identifiable, (2) for general $k$ we provide an algorithm with poly$(d) \exp(\text{poly}(k))$ sample and time complexity to estimate the regression parameters up to error $1/\text{poly}(k)$, and (3) for $k = 2$ we provide an algorithm for any error $\varepsilon$ and poly$(d, 1/\varepsilon)$ sample and time complexity.

We provide efficient estimation methods for first- and second-price auctions under independent (asymmetric) private values and partial observability. Given a finite set of observations, each comprising the identity of the winner and the price they paid in a sequence of identical auctions, we provide algorithms for non-parametrically estimating the bid distribution of each bidder, as well as their value distributions under equilibrium assumptions. We provide finite-sample estimation bounds which are uniform in that their error rates do not depend on the bid/value distributions being estimated. Our estimation guarantees advance a body of work in Econometrics wherein only identification results have been obtained, unless the setting is symmetric, parametric, or all bids are observable. Our guarantees also provide computationally and statistically effective alternatives to classical techniques from reliability theory. Finally, our results are immediately applicable to Dutch and English auctions.

We show that computing approximate stationary Markov coarse correlated equilibria (CCE) in general-sum stochastic games is computationally intractable, even when there are two players, the game is turn-based, the discount factor is an absolute constant, and the approximation is an absolute constant. Our intractability results stand in sharp contrast to normal-form games where exact CCEs are efficiently computable. A fortiori, our results imply that there are no efficient algorithms for learning stationary Markov CCE policies in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), even when the interaction is two-player and turn-based, and both the discount factor and the desired approximation of the learned policies is an absolute constant. In turn, these results stand in sharp contrast to single-agent reinforcement learning (RL) where near-optimal stationary Markov policies can be efficiently learned. Complementing our intractability results for stationary Markov CCEs, we provide a decentralized algorithm (assuming shared randomness among players) for learning a nonstationary Markov CCE policy with polynomial time and sample complexity in all problem parameters. Previous work for learning Markov CCE policies all required exponential time and sample complexity in the number of players., Comment: 50 pages

We provide guarantees for approximate Gaussian Process (GP) regression resulting from two common low-rank kernel approximations: based on random Fourier features, and based on truncating the kernel's Mercer expansion. In particular, we bound the Kullback-Leibler divergence between an exact GP and one resulting from one of the afore-described low-rank approximations to its kernel, as well as between their corresponding predictive densities, and we also bound the error between predictive mean vectors and between predictive covariance matrices computed using the exact versus using the approximate GP. We provide experiments on both simulated data and standard benchmarks to evaluate the effectiveness of our theoretical bounds., Comment: The arxiv ID of the correct article is arXiv:2004.01584. This arXiv article is redundant and it is not needed anymore

We study fast rates of convergence in the setting of nonparametric online regression, namely where regret is defined with respect to an arbitrary function class which has bounded complexity. Our contributions are two-fold: - In the realizable setting of nonparametric online regression with the absolute loss, we propose a randomized proper learning algorithm which gets a near-optimal cumulative loss in terms of the sequential fat-shattering dimension of the hypothesis class. In the setting of online classification with a class of Littlestone dimension $d$, our bound reduces to $d \cdot {\rm poly} \log T$. This result answers a question as to whether proper learners could achieve near-optimal cumulative loss; previously, even for online classification, the best known cumulative loss was $\tilde O( \sqrt{dT})$. Further, for the real-valued (regression) setting, a cumulative loss bound with near-optimal scaling on sequential fat-shattering dimension was not even known for improper learners, prior to this work. - Using the above result, we exhibit an independent learning algorithm for general-sum binary games of Littlestone dimension $d$, for which each player achieves regret $\tilde O(d^{3/4} \cdot T^{1/4})$. This result generalizes analogous results of Syrgkanis et al. (2015) who showed that in finite games the optimal regret can be accelerated from $O(\sqrt{T})$ in the adversarial setting to $O(T^{1/4})$ in the game setting. To establish the above results, we introduce several new techniques, including: a hierarchical aggregation rule to achieve the optimal cumulative loss for real-valued classes, a multi-scale extension of the proper online realizable learner of Hanneke et al. (2021), an approach to show that the output of such nonparametric learning algorithms is stable, and a proof that the minimax theorem holds in all online learnable games., Comment: 61 pages

Recently, Daskalakis, Fishelson, and Golowich (DFG) (NeurIPS`21) showed that if all agents in a multi-player general-sum normal-form game employ Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Update (OMWU), the external regret of every player is $O(\textrm{polylog}(T))$ after $T$ repetitions of the game. We extend their result from external regret to internal regret and swap regret, thereby establishing uncoupled learning dynamics that converge to an approximate correlated equilibrium at the rate of $\tilde{O}(T^{-1})$. This substantially improves over the prior best rate of convergence for correlated equilibria of $O(T^{-3/4})$ due to Chen and Peng (NeurIPS`20), and it is optimal -- within the no-regret framework -- up to polylogarithmic factors in $T$. To obtain these results, we develop new techniques for establishing higher-order smoothness for learning dynamics involving fixed point operations. Specifically, we establish that the no-internal-regret learning dynamics of Stoltz and Lugosi (Mach Learn`05) are equivalently simulated by no-external-regret dynamics on a combinatorial space. This allows us to trade the computation of the stationary distribution on a polynomial-sized Markov chain for a (much more well-behaved) linear transformation on an exponential-sized set, enabling us to leverage similar techniques as DFG to near-optimally bound the internal regret. Moreover, we establish an $O(\textrm{polylog}(T))$ no-swap-regret bound for the classic algorithm of Blum and Mansour (BM) (JMLR`07). We do so by introducing a technique based on the Cauchy Integral Formula that circumvents the more limited combinatorial arguments of DFG. In addition to shedding clarity on the near-optimal regret guarantees of BM, our arguments provide insights into the various ways in which the techniques by DFG can be extended and leveraged in the analysis of more involved learning algorithms., Comment: Appeared at STOC 2022

Machine learning has developed a variety of tools for learning and representing high-dimensional distributions with structure. Recent years have also seen big advances in designing multi-item mechanisms. Akin to overfitting, however, these mechanisms can be extremely sensitive to the Bayesian prior that they target, which becomes problematic when that prior is only approximately known. At the same time, even if access to the exact Bayesian prior is given, it is known that optimal or even approximately optimal multi-item mechanisms run into sample, computational, representation and communication intractability barriers. We consider a natural class of multi-item mechanism design problems with very large numbers of items, but where the bidders' value distributions can be well-approximated by a topic model akin to those used in recommendation systems with very large numbers of possible recommendations. We propose a mechanism design framework for this setting, building on a recent robustification framework by Brustle et al., which disentangles the statistical challenge of estimating a multi-dimensional prior from the task of designing a good mechanism for it, and robustifies the performance of the latter against the estimation error of the former. We provide an extension of this framework appropriate for our setting, which allows us to exploit the expressive power of topic models to reduce the effective dimensionality of the mechanism design problem and remove the dependence of its computational, communication and representation complexity on the number of items.

We show that Optimistic Hedge -- a common variant of multiplicative-weights-updates with recency bias -- attains ${\rm poly}(\log T)$ regret in multi-player general-sum games. In particular, when every player of the game uses Optimistic Hedge to iteratively update her strategy in response to the history of play so far, then after $T$ rounds of interaction, each player experiences total regret that is ${\rm poly}(\log T)$. Our bound improves, exponentially, the $O({T}^{1/2})$ regret attainable by standard no-regret learners in games, the $O(T^{1/4})$ regret attainable by no-regret learners with recency bias (Syrgkanis et al., 2015), and the ${O}(T^{1/6})$ bound that was recently shown for Optimistic Hedge in the special case of two-player games (Chen & Pen, 2020). A corollary of our bound is that Optimistic Hedge converges to coarse correlated equilibrium in general games at a rate of $\tilde{O}\left(\frac 1T\right)$., Comment: 40 pages

We consider a general statistical estimation problem wherein binary labels across different observations are not independent conditioned on their feature vectors, but dependent, capturing settings where e.g. these observations are collected on a spatial domain, a temporal domain, or a social network, which induce dependencies. We model these dependencies in the language of Markov Random Fields and, importantly, allow these dependencies to be substantial, i.e do not assume that the Markov Random Field capturing these dependencies is in high temperature. As our main contribution we provide algorithms and statistically efficient estimation rates for this model, giving several instantiations of our bounds in logistic regression, sparse logistic regression, and neural network settings with dependent data. Our estimation guarantees follow from novel results for estimating the parameters (i.e. external fields and interaction strengths) of Ising models from a {\em single} sample. {We evaluate our estimation approach on real networked data, showing that it outperforms standard regression approaches that ignore dependencies, across three text classification datasets: Cora, Citeseer and Pubmed.}, Comment: 41 pages, ICML 2021

We show a statistical version of Taylor's theorem and apply this result to non-parametric density estimation from truncated samples, which is a classical challenge in Statistics \cite{woodroofe1985estimating, stute1993almost}. The single-dimensional version of our theorem has the following implication: "For any distribution $P$ on $[0, 1]$ with a smooth log-density function, given samples from the conditional distribution of $P$ on $[a, a + \varepsilon] \subset [0, 1]$, we can efficiently identify an approximation to $P$ over the \emph{whole} interval $[0, 1]$, with quality of approximation that improves with the smoothness of $P$." To the best of knowledge, our result is the first in the area of non-parametric density estimation from truncated samples, which works under the hard truncation model, where the samples outside some survival set $S$ are never observed, and applies to multiple dimensions. In contrast, previous works assume single dimensional data where each sample has a different survival set $S$ so that samples from the whole support will ultimately be collected., Comment: Appeared at COLT2021

We obtain global, non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for independent learning algorithms in competitive reinforcement learning settings with two agents (i.e., zero-sum stochastic games). We consider an episodic setting where in each episode, each player independently selects a policy and observes only their own actions and rewards, along with the state. We show that if both players run policy gradient methods in tandem, their policies will converge to a min-max equilibrium of the game, as long as their learning rates follow a two-timescale rule (which is necessary). To the best of our knowledge, this constitutes the first finite-sample convergence result for independent policy gradient methods in competitive RL; prior work has largely focused on centralized, coordinated procedures for equilibrium computation., Comment: Appeared at NeurIPS 2020

The use of min-max optimization in adversarial training of deep neural network classifiers and training of generative adversarial networks has motivated the study of nonconvex-nonconcave optimization objectives, which frequently arise in these applications. Unfortunately, recent results have established that even approximate first-order stationary points of such objectives are intractable, even under smoothness conditions, motivating the study of min-max objectives with additional structure. We introduce a new class of structured nonconvex-nonconcave min-max optimization problems, proposing a generalization of the extragradient algorithm which provably converges to a stationary point. The algorithm applies not only to Euclidean spaces, but also to general $\ell_p$-normed finite-dimensional real vector spaces. We also discuss its stability under stochastic oracles and provide bounds on its sample complexity. Our iteration complexity and sample complexity bounds either match or improve the best known bounds for the same or less general nonconvex-nonconcave settings, such as those that satisfy variational coherence or in which a weak solution to the associated variational inequality problem is assumed to exist., Comment: in Proc. AISTATS'21

We show that $n$-variable tree-structured Ising models can be learned computationally-efficiently to within total variation distance $\epsilon$ from an optimal $O(n \ln n/\epsilon^2)$ samples, where $O(\cdot)$ hides an absolute constant which, importantly, does not depend on the model being learned - neither its tree nor the magnitude of its edge strengths, on which we place no assumptions. Our guarantees hold, in fact, for the celebrated Chow-Liu [1968] algorithm, using the plug-in estimator for estimating mutual information. While this (or any other) algorithm may fail to identify the structure of the underlying model correctly from a finite sample, we show that it will still learn a tree-structured model that is $\epsilon$-close to the true one in total variation distance, a guarantee called "proper learning." Our guarantees do not follow from known results for the Chow-Liu algorithm and the ensuing literature on learning graphical models, including a recent renaissance of algorithms on this learning challenge, which only yield asymptotic consistency results, or sample-inefficient and/or time-inefficient algorithms, unless further assumptions are placed on the graphical model, such as bounds on the "strengths" of the model's edges/hyperedges. While we establish guarantees for a widely known and simple algorithm, the analysis that this algorithm succeeds and is sample-optimal is quite complex, requiring a hierarchical classification of the edges into layers with different reconstruction guarantees, depending on their strength, combined with delicate uses of the subadditivity of the squared Hellinger distance over graphical models to control the error accumulation.

We study the question of obtaining last-iterate convergence rates for no-regret learning algorithms in multi-player games. We show that the optimistic gradient (OG) algorithm with a constant step-size, which is no-regret, achieves a last-iterate rate of $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ with respect to the gap function in smooth monotone games. This result addresses a question of Mertikopoulos & Zhou (2018), who asked whether extra-gradient approaches (such as OG) can be applied to achieve improved guarantees in the multi-agent learning setting. The proof of our upper bound uses a new technique centered around an adaptive choice of potential function at each iteration. We also show that the $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ rate is tight for all $p$-SCLI algorithms, which includes OG as a special case. As a byproduct of our lower bound analysis we additionally present a proof of a conjecture of Arjevani et al. (2015) which is more direct than previous approaches., Comment: To appear at NeurIPS 2020. 41 pages

We provide a computationally and statistically efficient estimator for the classical problem of truncated linear regression, where the dependent variable $y = w^T x + \epsilon$ and its corresponding vector of covariates $x \in R^k$ are only revealed if the dependent variable falls in some subset $S \subseteq R$; otherwise the existence of the pair $(x, y)$ is hidden. This problem has remained a challenge since the early works of [Tobin 1958, Amemiya 1973, Hausman and Wise 1977], its applications are abundant, and its history dates back even further to the work of Galton, Pearson, Lee, and Fisher. While consistent estimators of the regression coefficients have been identified, the error rates are not well-understood, especially in high dimensions. Under a thickness assumption about the covariance matrix of the covariates in the revealed sample, we provide a computationally efficient estimator for the coefficient vector $w$ from $n$ revealed samples that attains $l_2$ error $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{k/n})$. Our estimator uses Projected Stochastic Gradient Descent (PSGD) without replacement on the negative log-likelihood of the truncated sample. For the statistically efficient estimation we only need oracle access to the set $S$.In order to achieve computational efficiency we need to assume that $S$ is a union of a finite number of intervals but still can be complicated. PSGD without replacement must be restricted to an appropriately defined convex cone to guarantee that the negative log-likelihood is strongly convex, which in turn is established using concentration of matrices on variables with sub-exponential tails. We perform experiments on simulated data to illustrate the accuracy of our estimator. As a corollary, we show that SGD learns the parameters of single-layer neural networks with noisy activation functions., Comment: Accepted for presentation at the Conference on Learning Theory (COLT) 2019

Despite its important applications in Machine Learning, min-max optimization of nonconvex-nonconcave objectives remains elusive. Not only are there no known first-order methods converging even to approximate local min-max points, but the computational complexity of identifying them is also poorly understood. In this paper, we provide a characterization of the computational complexity of the problem, as well as of the limitations of first-order methods in constrained min-max optimization problems with nonconvex-nonconcave objectives and linear constraints. As a warm-up, we show that, even when the objective is a Lipschitz and smooth differentiable function, deciding whether a min-max point exists, in fact even deciding whether an approximate min-max point exists, is NP-hard. More importantly, we show that an approximate local min-max point of large enough approximation is guaranteed to exist, but finding one such point is PPAD-complete. The same is true of computing an approximate fixed point of Gradient Descent/Ascent. An important byproduct of our proof is to establish an unconditional hardness result in the Nemirovsky-Yudin model. We show that, given oracle access to some function $f : P \to [-1, 1]$ and its gradient $\nabla f$, where $P \subseteq [0, 1]^d$ is a known convex polytope, every algorithm that finds a $\varepsilon$-approximate local min-max point needs to make a number of queries that is exponential in at least one of $1/\varepsilon$, $L$, $G$, or $d$, where $L$ and $G$ are respectively the smoothness and Lipschitzness of $f$ and $d$ is the dimension. This comes in sharp contrast to minimization problems, where finding approximate local minima in the same setting can be done with Projected Gradient Descent using $O(L/\varepsilon)$ many queries. Our result is the first to show an exponential separation between these two fundamental optimization problems.

We propose a new method for inferring the governing stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) by observing particle ensembles at discrete and sparse time instants, i.e., multiple "snapshots". Particle coordinates at a single time instant, possibly noisy or truncated, are recorded in each snapshot but are unpaired across the snapshots. By training a physics-informed generative model that generates "fake" sample paths, we aim to fit the observed particle ensemble distributions with a curve in the probability measure space, which is induced from the inferred particle dynamics. We employ different metrics to quantify the differences between distributions, e.g., the sliced Wasserstein distances and the adversarial losses in generative adversarial networks (GANs). We refer to this method as generative "ensemble-regression" (GER), in analogy to the classic "point-regression", where we infer the dynamics by performing regression in the Euclidean space. We illustrate the GER by learning the drift and diffusion terms of particle ensembles governed by SODEs with Brownian motions and Levy processes up to 100 dimensions. We also discuss how to treat cases with noisy or truncated observations. Apart from systems consisting of independent particles, we also tackle nonlocal interacting particle systems with unknown interaction potential parameters by constructing a physics-informed loss function. Finally, we investigate scenarios of paired observations and discuss how to reduce the dimensionality in such cases by proving a convergence theorem that provides theoretical support.

As in standard linear regression, in truncated linear regression, we are given access to observations $(A_i, y_i)_i$ whose dependent variable equals $y_i= A_i^{\rm T} \cdot x^* + \eta_i$, where $x^*$ is some fixed unknown vector of interest and $\eta_i$ is independent noise; except we are only given an observation if its dependent variable $y_i$ lies in some "truncation set" $S \subset \mathbb{R}$. The goal is to recover $x^*$ under some favorable conditions on the $A_i$'s and the noise distribution. We prove that there exists a computationally and statistically efficient method for recovering $k$-sparse $n$-dimensional vectors $x^*$ from $m$ truncated samples, which attains an optimal $\ell_2$ reconstruction error of $O(\sqrt{(k \log n)/m})$. As a corollary, our guarantees imply a computationally efficient and information-theoretically optimal algorithm for compressed sensing with truncation, which may arise from measurement saturation effects. Our result follows from a statistical and computational analysis of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm for solving a natural adaptation of the LASSO optimization problem that accommodates truncation. This generalizes the works of both: (1) [Daskalakis et al. 2018], where no regularization is needed due to the low-dimensionality of the data, and (2) [Wainright 2009], where the objective function is simple due to the absence of truncation. In order to deal with both truncation and high-dimensionality at the same time, we develop new techniques that not only generalize the existing ones but we believe are of independent interest., Comment: 30 pages, 1 figure

Generative neural networks have been empirically found very promising in providing effective structural priors for compressed sensing, since they can be trained to span low-dimensional data manifolds in high-dimensional signal spaces. Despite the non-convexity of the resulting optimization problem, it has also been shown theoretically that, for neural networks with random Gaussian weights, a signal in the range of the network can be efficiently, approximately recovered from a few noisy measurements. However, a major bottleneck of these theoretical guarantees is a network expansivity condition: that each layer of the neural network must be larger than the previous by a logarithmic factor. Our main contribution is to break this strong expansivity assumption, showing that constant expansivity suffices to get efficient recovery algorithms, besides it also being information-theoretically necessary. To overcome the theoretical bottleneck in existing approaches we prove a novel uniform concentration theorem for random functions that might not be Lipschitz but satisfy a relaxed notion which we call "pseudo-Lipschitzness." Using this theorem we can show that a matrix concentration inequality known as the Weight Distribution Condition (WDC), which was previously only known to hold for Gaussian matrices with logarithmic aspect ratio, in fact holds for constant aspect ratios too. Since the WDC is a fundamental matrix concentration inequality in the heart of all existing theoretical guarantees on this problem, our tighter bound immediately yields improvements in all known results in the literature on compressed sensing with deep generative priors, including one-bit recovery, phase retrieval, low-rank matrix recovery, and more., Comment: 21 pages, 1 figure; added an application

There have been two separate lines of work on estimating Ising models: (1) estimating them from multiple independent samples under minimal assumptions about the model's interaction matrix; and (2) estimating them from one sample in restrictive settings. We propose a unified framework that smoothly interpolates between these two settings, enabling significantly richer estimation guarantees from one, a few, or many samples. Our main theorem provides guarantees for one-sample estimation, quantifying the estimation error in terms of the metric entropy of a family of interaction matrices. As corollaries of our main theorem, we derive bounds when the model's interaction matrix is a (sparse) linear combination of known matrices, or it belongs to a finite set, or to a high-dimensional manifold. In fact, our main result handles multiple independent samples by viewing them as one sample from a larger model, and can be used to derive estimation bounds that are qualitatively similar to those obtained in the afore-described multiple-sample literature. Our technical approach benefits from sparsifying a model's interaction network, conditioning on subsets of variables that make the dependencies in the resulting conditional distribution sufficiently weak. We use this sparsification technique to prove strong concentration and anti-concentration results for the Ising model, which we believe have applications beyond the scope of this paper.

We provide guarantees for approximate Gaussian Process (GP) regression resulting from two common low-rank kernel approximations: based on random Fourier features, and based on truncating the kernel's Mercer expansion. In particular, we bound the Kullback-Leibler divergence between an exact GP and one resulting from one of the afore-described low-rank approximations to its kernel, as well as between their corresponding predictive densities, and we also bound the error between predictive mean vectors and between predictive covariance matrices computed using the exact versus using the approximate GP. We provide experiments on both simulated data and standard benchmarks to evaluate the effectiveness of our theoretical bounds.

Spin glass models, such as the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick, Hopfield and Ising models, are all well-studied members of the exponential family of discrete distributions, and have been influential in a number of application domains where they are used to model correlation phenomena on networks. Conventionally these models have quadratic sufficient statistics and consequently capture correlations arising from pairwise interactions. In this work we study extensions of these to models with higher-order sufficient statistics, modeling behavior on a social network with peer-group effects. In particular, we model binary outcomes on a network as a higher-order spin glass, where the behavior of an individual depends on a linear function of their own vector of covariates and some polynomial function of the behavior of others, capturing peer-group effects. Using a {\em single}, high-dimensional sample from such model our goal is to recover the coefficients of the linear function as well as the strength of the peer-group effects. The heart of our result is a novel approach for showing strong concavity of the log pseudo-likelihood of the model, implying statistical error rate of $\sqrt{d/n}$ for the Maximum Pseudo-Likelihood Estimator (MPLE), where $d$ is the dimensionality of the covariate vectors and $n$ is the size of the network (number of nodes). Our model generalizes vanilla logistic regression as well as the peer-effect models studied in recent works, and our results extend these results to accommodate higher-order interactions., Comment: 16 pages

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are modern methods to learn the underlying distribution of a data set. GANs have been widely used in sample synthesis, de-noising, domain transfer, etc. GANs, however, are designed in a model-free fashion where no additional information about the underlying distribution is available. In many applications, however, practitioners have access to the underlying independence graph of the variables, either as a Bayesian network or a Markov Random Field (MRF). We ask: how can one use this additional information in designing model-based GANs? In this paper, we provide theoretical foundations to answer this question by studying subadditivity properties of probability divergences, which establish upper bounds on the distance between two high-dimensional distributions by the sum of distances between their marginals over (local) neighborhoods of the graphical structure of the Bayes-net or the MRF. We prove that several popular probability divergences satisfy some notion of subadditivity under mild conditions. These results lead to a principled design of a model-based GAN that uses a set of simple discriminators on the neighborhoods of the Bayes-net/MRF, rather than a giant discriminator on the entire network, providing significant statistical and computational benefits. Our experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the benefits of our principled design of model-based GANs.

We present a general framework for designing approximately revenue-optimal mechanisms for multi-item additive auctions, which applies to both truthful and non-truthful auctions. Given a (not necessarily truthful) single-item auction format $A$ satisfying certain technical conditions, we run simultaneous item auctions augmented with a personalized entry fee for each bidder that must be paid before the auction can be accessed. These entry fees depend only on the prior distribution of bidder types, and in particular are independent of realized bids. We bound the revenue of the resulting two-part tariff mechanism using a novel geometric technique that enables revenue guarantees for many common non-truthful auctions that previously had none. Our approach adapts and extends the duality framework of Cai et al [CDW16] beyond truthful auctions. Our framework can be used with many common auction formats, such as simultaneous first-price, simultaneous second-price, and simultaneous all-pay auctions. Our results for first price and all-pay are the first revenue guarantees of non-truthful mechanisms in multi-dimensional environments, addressing an open question in the literature [RST17]. If all-pay auctions are used, we prove that the resulting mechanism is also credible in the sense that the auctioneer cannot benefit by deviating from the stated mechanism after observing agent bids. This is the first static credible mechanism for multi-item additive auctions that achieves a constant factor of the optimal revenue. If second-price auctions are used, we obtain a truthful $O(1)$-approximate mechanism with fixed entry fees that are amenable to tuning via online learning techniques.

In this paper we study the smooth convex-concave saddle point problem. Specifically, we analyze the last iterate convergence properties of the Extragradient (EG) algorithm. It is well known that the ergodic (averaged) iterates of EG converge at a rate of $O(1/T)$ (Nemirovski, 2004). In this paper, we show that the last iterate of EG converges at a rate of $O(1/\sqrt{T})$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to provide a convergence rate guarantee for the last iterate of EG for the smooth convex-concave saddle point problem. Moreover, we show that this rate is tight by proving a lower bound of $\Omega(1/\sqrt{T})$ for the last iterate. This lower bound therefore shows a quadratic separation of the convergence rates of ergodic and last iterates in smooth convex-concave saddle point problems., Comment: 27 pages

We study the sample complexity of learning revenue-optimal multi-item auctions. We obtain the first set of positive results that go beyond the standard but unrealistic setting of item-independence. In particular, we consider settings where bidders' valuations are drawn from correlated distributions that can be captured by Markov Random Fields or Bayesian Networks -- two of the most prominent graphical models. We establish parametrized sample complexity bounds for learning an up-to-$\varepsilon$ optimal mechanism in both models, which scale polynomially in the size of the model, i.e.~the number of items and bidders, and only exponential in the natural complexity measure of the model, namely either the largest in-degree (for Bayesian Networks) or the size of the largest hyper-edge (for Markov Random Fields). We obtain our learnability results through a novel and modular framework that involves first proving a robustness theorem. We show that, given only ``approximate distributions'' for bidder valuations, we can learn a mechanism whose revenue is nearly optimal simultaneously for all ``true distributions'' that are close to the ones we were given in Prokhorov distance. Thus, to learn a good mechanism, it suffices to learn approximate distributions. When item values are independent, learning in Prokhorov distance is immediate, hence our framework directly implies the main result of Gonczarowski and Weinberg. When item values are sampled from more general graphical models, we combine our robustness theorem with novel sample complexity results for learning Markov Random Fields or Bayesian Networks in Prokhorov distance, which may be of independent interest. Finally, in the single-item case, our robustness result can be strengthened to hold under an even weaker distribution distance, the L\'evy distance.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are a widely used framework for learning generative models. Wasserstein GANs (WGANs), one of the most successful variants of GANs, require solving a minmax optimization problem to global optimality, but are in practice successfully trained using stochastic gradient descent-ascent. In this paper, we show that, when the generator is a one-layer network, stochastic gradient descent-ascent converges to a global solution with polynomial time and sample complexity., Comment: 24 pages, 4 figures, ICML2020

Statistical learning theory has largely focused on learning and generalization given independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples. Motivated by applications involving time-series data, there has been a growing literature on learning and generalization in settings where data is sampled from an ergodic process. This work has also developed complexity measures, which appropriately extend the notion of Rademacher complexity to bound the generalization error and learning rates of hypothesis classes in this setting. Rather than time-series data, our work is motivated by settings where data is sampled on a network or a spatial domain, and thus do not fit well within the framework of prior work. We provide learning and generalization bounds for data that are complexly dependent, yet their distribution satisfies the standard Dobrushin's condition. Indeed, we show that the standard complexity measures of Gaussian and Rademacher complexities and VC dimension are sufficient measures of complexity for the purposes of bounding the generalization error and learning rates of hypothesis classes in our setting. Moreover, our generalization bounds only degrade by constant factors compared to their i.i.d. analogs, and our learnability bounds degrade by log factors in the size of the training set.

The standard linear and logistic regression models assume that the response variables are independent, but share the same linear relationship to their corresponding vectors of covariates. The assumption that the response variables are independent is, however, too strong. In many applications, these responses are collected on nodes of a network, or some spatial or temporal domain, and are dependent. Examples abound in financial and meteorological applications, and dependencies naturally arise in social networks through peer effects. Regression with dependent responses has thus received a lot of attention in the Statistics and Economics literature, but there are no strong consistency results unless multiple independent samples of the vectors of dependent responses can be collected from these models. We present computationally and statistically efficient methods for linear and logistic regression models when the response variables are dependent on a network. Given one sample from a networked linear or logistic regression model and under mild assumptions, we prove strong consistency results for recovering the vector of coefficients and the strength of the dependencies, recovering the rates of standard regression under independent observations. We use projected gradient descent on the negative log-likelihood, or negative log-pseudolikelihood, and establish their strong convexity and consistency using concentration of measure for dependent random variables., Comment: 33 pages, in proceedings of STOC 2019

Asynchronous Gibbs sampling has been recently shown to be fast-mixing and an accurate method for estimating probabilities of events on a small number of variables of a graphical model satisfying Dobrushin's condition~\cite{DeSaOR16}. We investigate whether it can be used to accurately estimate expectations of functions of {\em all the variables} of the model. Under the same condition, we show that the synchronous (sequential) and asynchronous Gibbs samplers can be coupled so that the expected Hamming distance between their (multivariate) samples remains bounded by $O(\tau \log n),$ where $n$ is the number of variables in the graphical model, and $\tau$ is a measure of the asynchronicity. A similar bound holds for any constant power of the Hamming distance. Hence, the expectation of any function that is Lipschitz with respect to a power of the Hamming distance, can be estimated with a bias that grows logarithmically in $n$. Going beyond Lipschitz functions, we consider the bias arising from asynchronicity in estimating the expectation of polynomial functions of all variables in the model. Using recent concentration of measure results, we show that the bias introduced by the asynchronicity is of smaller order than the standard deviation of the function value already present in the true model. We perform experiments on a multi-processor machine to empirically illustrate our theoretical findings., Comment: 19 pages, 3 figures, published at NeurIPS2018