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Abstract Background Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) has a poor prognosis and is understudied. Based on the clinical features of patients with ICC, we constructed machine learning models to understand their importance on survival and to accurately determine patient prognosis, aiming to develop reference values to guide physicians in developing more effective treatment plans. Methods This study used machine learning (ML) algorithms to build prediction models using ICC data on 1,751 patients from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database and 58 hospital cases. The models’ performances were compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, C-index, and Brier scores. Results A total of eight variables were used to construct the ML models. Our analysis identified the random survival forest model as the best for prognostic prediction. In the training cohort, its C-index, Brier score, and Area Under the Curve values were 0.76, 0.124, and 0.882, respectively, and it also performed well in the test cohort. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis revealed that the model could effectively determine patient prognosis. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study to develop ML prognostic models for ICC in the high-incidence age group. Of the ML models, the random survival forest model was best at prognosis prediction.

BackgroundMost patients with multiple hepatocellular carcinoma (MHCC) are at advanced stage once diagnosed, so that clinical treatment and decision-making are quite tricky. The AJCC-TNM system cannot accurately determine prognosis, our study aimed to identify prognostic factors for MHCC and to develop a prognostic model to quantify the risk and survival probability of patients.MethodsEligible patients with HCC were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and then prognostic models were built using Cox regression, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) algorithms. The model’s performance was evaluated using C-index, receiver operating characteristic curve, Brier score and decision curve analysis, respectively, and the best model was interpreted using SHapley additive explanations (SHAP) interpretability technique.ResultsA total of eight variables were included in the follow-up study, our analysis identified that the gradient boosted machine (GBM) model was the best prognostic model for advanced MHCC. In particular, the GBM model in the training cohort had a C-index of 0.73, a Brier score of 0.124, with area under the curve (AUC) values above 0.78 at the first, third, and fifth year. Importantly, the model also performed well in test cohort. The Kaplan–Meier (K-M) survival analysis demonstrated that the newly developed risk stratification system could well differentiate the prognosis of patients.ConclusionOf the ML models, GBM model could predict the prognosis of advanced MHCC patients most accurately.

BackgroundMany cancer patients have not received timely treatment or even had treatment interruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this investigation was to evaluate whether the prognosis of patients with breast cancer after surgery was affected by any interruptions in radiotherapy.MethodsThe healthcare documents for breast cancer patients experiencing radiotherapy interruption after surgery, including treatment-related characteristics, and time of interruption, type of disease progression, and survival status, were collected between January and April 2020 during the Wuhan blockade.ResultsThe final number of patients included was 148, and neither the Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve nor the cross-tabulation analysis found statistical significance. Cox regression analysis also did not identify risk factors associated with PFS.ConclusionsThe prognosis of patients with postoperative breast cancer may not be significantly impacted by the interruption of radiotherapy, given its integration with additional treatments like targeted and endocrine therapies.

Summary: Gastric cancer exerts a significant healthcare burden worldwide and is highly geographically heterogeneous. This study investigates the burden of gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and compares it with Japan, South Korea, and the United States. The results indicated a declining trend in ASIR and ASDR in four countries. However, the incidence and death rates in China remain disproportionately high. Significant gender disparities exist in the incidence and death rates, with males experiencing significantly higher rates than females. Incidence and death rates were found to increase with age in all studied countries. In China, a transient upward trend was observed in the period effect, whereas the cohort effect has been declining. In contrast, the remaining countries showed decreasing patterns in both period and cohort effects. The burden of disease remains high in China, therefore, broaden the scope of gastroscopy screening and concentrate on high-risk groups is vital.

Pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma (PACC) is a rare pancreatic malignancy with unique clinical, molecular, and morphologic features. The long-term survival of patients with PACC is substantially better than that of patients with ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas. Surgical resection is considered the first choice for treatment; however, there is no standard treatment option for patients with inoperable disease. The patient with metastatic PACC reported herein survived for more than 5 years with various treatments including chemotherapy, radiotherapy, antiangiogenic therapy and combined immunotherapy.

Background: M2 macrophages perform an influential role in the progression of pancreatic cancer. This study is dedicated to explore the value of M2 macrophage-related genes in the treatment and prognosis of pancreatic cancer.Methods: RNA-Seq and clinical information were downloaded from TCGA, GEO and ICGC databases. The pancreatic cancer tumour microenvironment was revealed using the CIBERSORT algorithm. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was used to detect M2 macrophage-associated gene modules. Univariate Cox regression, Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multivariate Cox regression were applied to develop the prognostic model. The modelling and validation cohorts were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the median risk score. The nomogram predicting survival was constructed based on risk scores. Correlations between risk scores and tumour mutational load, clinical variables, immune checkpoint blockade, and immune cells were further explored. Finally, potential associations between different risk models and chemotherapeutic agent efficacy were predicted.Results: The intersection of the WGCNA results from the TCGA and GEO data screened for 317 M2 macrophage-associated genes. Nine genes were identified by multivariate COX regression analysis and applied to the construction of risk models. The results of GSEA analysis revealed that most of these genes were related to signaling, cytokine receptor interaction and immunodeficiency pathways. The high and low risk groups were closely associated with tumour mutational burden, immune checkpoint blockade related genes, and immune cells. The maximum inhibitory concentrations of metformin, paclitaxel, and rufatinib lapatinib were significantly differences on the two risk groups.Conclusion: WGCNA-based analysis of M2 macrophage-associated genes can help predict the prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients and may provide new options for immunotherapy of pancreatic cancer.

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a malignant tumor originating from the epithelial cells of the nasopharynx with a unique geographic distribution, and is particularly prevalent in East and Southeast Asia. Due to its anatomical location, the surgery is difficult to access and the high sensitivity of nasopharyngeal cancer to radiotherapy (RT) makes it the main treatment modality. Radical radiotherapy is the first-line treatment for early-stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma and the cornerstone of multidisciplinary treatment for patients with locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Nevertheless, radiotherapy interruption is inevitable as a consequence of unavoidable factors such as public holidays, machine malfunction, patient compliance, and adverse response to treatment, which in turn leads to a reduction in bioactivity and causes sublethal loss of tumor cells to repair. Unirradiated tumor cells are more likely to repopulate at or near their original fastest growth rate during this interval. If no measures are taken after the radiotherapy interruption, such as increasing the dose of radiotherapy and systemic therapy, the tumor is most likely to go uncontrolled and then progress. This review describes the effects of radiotherapy interruption on nasopharyngeal carcinoma, the mechanism of the effect, and explores the measures that can be taken in response to such interruption.

BackgroundLymphovascular invasion (LVI) is a high-risk factor for testicular germ-cell tumors (TGCT), but a prognostic model for TGCT-LVI patients is lacking. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of TGCT-LVI patients.MethodsA complete cohort of 3288 eligible TGCG-LVI patients (training cohort, 2300 cases; validation cohort, 988 cases) were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Variables screened by multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to construct a nomogram, which was subsequently evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and calibration plots. The advantages and disadvantages of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system and the nomogram were assessed by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Decision-analysis curve (DCA) was used to measure the net clinical benefit of the nomogram versus the AJCC staging system. Finally, Kaplan–Meier curves were used to evaluate the ability to identify different risk groups between the traditional AJCC staging system and the new risk-stratification system built on the nomogram.ResultsNine variables were screened by multivariate Cox regression analysis to construct the nomogram. The C-index (training cohort, 0.821; validation cohort, 0.819) and time-dependent ROC of 3-, 5-, and 9-year OS between the two cohorts suggested that the nomogram had good discriminatory ability. Calibration curves showed good consistency of the nomogram. The NRI values of 3-, 5-, and 9-year OS were 0.308, 0.274, and 0.295, respectively, and the corresponding values for the validation cohort were 0.093, 0.093, and 0.099, respectively (P

Simple summaryAccurately estimate the prognosis of patients with ECCA is important. However, the TNM system has some limitations, such as low accuracy, exclusion of other factors (e.g., age and sex), and poor performance in predicting individual survival risk. In contrast, a nomogram-based clinical model related to a comprehensive analysis of all risk factors is intuitive and straightforward, facilitating the probabilistic analysis of tumor-related risk factors. Simultaneously, a nomogram can also effectively drive personalized medicine and facilitate clinicians for prognosis prediction. Therefore, we construct a novel practical nomogram and risk stratification system to predict CSS in patients with ECCA.BackgroundAccurately estimate the prognosis of patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECCA) was important, but the existing staging system has limitations. The present study aimed to construct a novel practical nomogram and risk stratification system to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in ECCA patients.Methods3415 patients diagnosed with ECCA between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the SEER database and randomized into a training cohort and a validation cohort at 7:3. The nomogram was identified and calibrated using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and calibration plots. Decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and the risk stratification were used to compare the nomogram with the AJCC staging system.ResultsNine variables were selected to establish the nomogram. The C-index (training cohort:0.785; validation cohort:0.776) and time-dependent AUC (>0.7) showed satisfactory discrimination. The calibration plots also revealed that the nomogram was consistent with the actual observations. The NRI (training cohort: 1-, 2-, and 3-year CSS:0.27, 0.27,0.52; validation cohort:1-,2-,3-year CSS:0.48,0.13,0.34), IDI (training cohort: 1-, 2-, 3-year CSS:0.22,0.18,0.16; validation cohort: 1-,2-,3-year CSS:0.18,0.16,0.17), and DCA indicated that the established nomogram significantly outperformed the AJCC staging system (P

BackgroundThe goal is to establish and validate an innovative prognostic risk stratification and nomogram in patients of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with microvascular invasion (MVI) for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS).Methods1487 qualified patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and randomly assigned to the training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. Concordance index (C-index), area under curve (AUC) and calibration plots were adopted to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to quantify the net benefit of the nomogram at different threshold probabilities and compare it to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor staging system. C-index, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to evaluate the improvement of the new model over the AJCC tumor staging system. The new risk stratifications based on the nomogram and the AJCC tumor staging system were compared.ResultsEight prognostic factors were used to construct the nomogram for HCC patients with MVI. The C-index for the training and validation cohorts was 0.785 and 0.776 respectively. The AUC values were higher than 0.7 both in the training cohort and validation cohort. The calibration plots showed good consistency between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction. The IDI values of 1-, 3-, 5-year CSS in the training cohort were 0.17, 0.16, 0.15, and in the validation cohort were 0.17, 0.17, 0.17 (P

BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has the highest cancer-related mortality rate. This study aims to create a nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.MethodsPatients diagnosed with advanced HCC (AJCC stage III and IV) during 1975 to 2018 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Qualified patents were randomized into training cohort and validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. The results of univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to construct the nomogram. Consistency index (C-index), area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve [time-dependent area under the curve (AUC)], and calibration plots were used to identify and calibrate the nomogram. The net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and C-index, and decision curve analysis DCA were adopted to compare the nomogram’s clinical utility with the AJCC criteria.ResultsThe 3,103 patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma were selected (the training cohort: 2,175 patients and the validation cohort: 928 patients). The C-index in both training cohort and validation cohort were greater than 0.7. The AUC for ROC in the training cohort was 0.781, 0.771, and 0.791 at 1, 2, and 3 years CSS, respectively. Calibration plots showed good consistency between actual observations and the 1-, 2-, and 3-year CSS predicted by the nomogram. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year NRI were 0.77, 0.46, and 0.48, respectively. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year IDI values were 0.16, 0.15, and 0.12 (P < 0.001), respectively. DCA curves in both the training and validation cohorts demonstrated that the nomogram showed better predicted 1-, 2-, and 3-year CSS probabilities than AJCC criteria.ConclusionsThis study established a practical nomogram for predicting CSS in patients with advanced HCC and a risk stratification system that provided an applicable tool for clinical management.

ObjectiveHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. This study aims to construct a novel practical nomogram and risk stratification system to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in HCC patients with severe liver fibrosis.MethodsData on 1,878 HCC patients with severe liver fibrosis in the period 1975 to 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER). Patients were block-randomized (1,316 training cohort, 562 validation cohort) by setting random seed. Univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses were employed to select variables for the nomogram. The consistency index (C-index), the area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC), and calibration curves were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA), the C-index, the net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to compare the nomogram with the AJCC tumor staging system. We also compared the risk stratification of the nomogram with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system.ResultsSeven variables were selected to establish the nomogram. The C-index (training cohort: 0.781, 95%CI: 0.767–0.793; validation cohort: 0.793, 95%CI = 95%CI: 0.779–0.798) and the time-dependent AUCs (the training cohort: the values of 1-, 3-, and 5 years were 0.845, 0.835, and 0.842, respectively; the validation cohort: the values of 1-, 3-, and 5 years were 0.861, 0.870, and 0.876, respectively) showed satisfactory discrimination. The calibration plots also revealed that the nomogram was consistent with the actual observations. NRI (training cohort: 1-, 2-, and 3-year CSS: 0.42, 0.61, and 0.67; validation cohort: 1-, 2-, and 3-year CSS: 0.26, 0.52, and 0.72) and IDI (training cohort: 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS:0.16, 0.20, and 0.22; validation cohort: 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS: 0.17, 0.26, and 0.30) indicated that the established nomogram significantly outperformed the AJCC staging system (P