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Identifying the instances of jumps in a discrete-time-series sample of a jump diffusion model is a challenging task. We have developed a novel statistical technique for jump detection and volatility estimation in a return time series data using a threshold method. The consistency of the volatility estimator has been obtained. Since we have derived the threshold and the volatility estimator simultaneously by solving an implicit equation, we have obtained unprecedented accuracy across a wide range of parameter values. Using this method, the increments attributed to jumps have been removed from a large collection of historical data of Indian sectorial indices. Subsequently, we have tested the presence of regime-switching dynamics in the volatility coefficient using a new discriminating statistic. The statistic has been shown to be sensitive to the transition kernel of the regime-switching model. We perform the testing using the Bootstrap method and find a clear indication of presence of multiple regimes of volatility in the data. A link to all Python codes is given in the conclusion. The methodology is suitable for analyzing high-frequency data and may be applied for algorithmic trading., Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures

We have developed a statistical technique to test the model assumption of binary regime switching extension of the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model by proposing a new discriminating statistics. Given a time series data, we have identified an admissible class of the regime switching candidate models for the statistical inference. By performing several systematic experiments, we have successfully shown that the sampling distribution of the test statistics differs drastically, if the model assumption changes from GBM to Markov modulated GBM, or to semi-Markov modulated GBM. Furthermore, we have implemented this statistics for testing the regime switching hypothesis with Indian sectoral indices., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables

This paper studies pricing derivatives in an age-dependent semi-Markov modulated market. We consider a financial market where the asset price dynamics follow a regime switching geometric Brownian motion model in which the coefficients depend on finitely many age-dependent semi-Markov processes. We further allow the volatility coefficient to depend on time explicitly. Under these market assumptions, we study locally risk minimizing pricing of a class of European options. It is shown that the price function can be obtained by solving a non-local B-S-M type PDE. We establish existence and uniqueness of a classical solution of the Cauchy problem. We also find another characterization of price function via a system of Volterra integral equation of second kind. This alternative representation leads to computationally efficient methods for finding price and hedging. Finally, we analyze the PDE to establish continuous dependence of the solution on the instantaneous transition rates of semi-Markov processes. An explicit expression of quadratic residual risk is also obtained., Comment: 24 pages

This article studies a portfolio optimization problem, where the market consisting of several stocks is modeled by a multi-dimensional jump-diffusion process with age-dependent semi-Markov modulated coefficients. We study risk sensitive portfolio optimization on the finite time horizon. We study the problem by using a probabilistic approach to establish the existence and uniqueness of the classical solution to the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. We also implement a numerical scheme to investigate the behavior of solutions for different values of the initial portfolio wealth, the maturity, and the risk of aversion parameter., Comment: 29 pages, 3 figures