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Background: The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has determined there is sufficient evidence that working in the rubber manufacturing industry increases the risk of cancers of the stomach, lung, bladder and leukaemia and lymphoma., Objectives: To examine mortality patterns of a prospective cohort of men from the rubber and cable manufacturing industries in Great Britain., Methods: SMRs were calculated for males aged 35+ years at start of follow-up in 1967-2015 using the population of England and Wales as the external comparator. Tests for homogeneity and trends in SMRs were also completed., Results: For all causes, all malignant neoplasms, non-malignant respiratory diseases and circulatory diseases, SMRs were significantly elevated, and also particularly for cancers of the stomach (SMR=1.26,95% CI 1.18 to 1.36), lung (1.25,95% CI 1.21 to 1.29) and bladder (1.16,95% CI 1.05 to 1.28). However, the observed deaths for leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) and multiple myeloma were as expected. Bladder cancer risks were elevated only in workers exposed to antioxidants containing 1-naphthylamine and 2-naphthylamine., Conclusions: This study provides evidence of excess risks in the rubber industry for some non-cancer diseases and supports IARC's conclusions in relation to risks for cancers of the bladder, lung and stomach, but not for leukaemia, NHL or multiple myeloma., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: We examined the mortality of a historic cohort of workers in Great Britain with measured blood lead levels (BLLs)., Methods: SMRs were calculated with the population of Great Britain as the external comparator. Trends in mortality with mean and maximum BLLs and assessed lead exposure were examined using Cox regression., Results: Mean follow-up length among the 9122 study participants was 29.2 years and 3466 deaths occurred. For all causes and all malignant neoplasms, the SMRs were statistically significantly raised. For disease groups of a priori interest, the SMR was significantly raised for lung cancer but not for stomach, brain, kidney, bladder or oesophageal cancers. The SMR was not increased for non-malignant kidney disease but was borderline significantly increased for circulatory diseases, for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD). No significant trends with exposure were observed for the cancers of interest, but for circulatory diseases and IHD, there was a statistically significant trend for increasing HR with mean and maximum BLLs., Conclusions: This study found an excess of lung cancer, although the risk was not clearly associated with increasing BLLs. It also found marginally significant excesses of IHD and CVD, the former being related to mean and maximum BLLs. The finding for IHD may have been due to lead, but could also have been due to other dust exposure associated with lead exposure and possibly tobacco smoking. Further work is required to clarify this and the carcinogenicity of lead., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Background: Ascertainment of asbestosis and mesothelioma from underlying cause of death underestimates the burden of these diseases. The aims of this study were to estimate the true frequency of asbestosis and mesothelioma among asbestos workers in Great Britain (GB), and to identify factors associated with the risk of death with these diseases., Methods: The GB Asbestos Survey was established in 1971 to monitor long-term health outcomes among workers covered by regulations to control asbestos at work. Asbestosis and mesothelioma cases were defined by multiple cause of death, and were ascertained by identifying asbestos workers on the GB Asbestosis and Mesothelioma Registers. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated; the risks of asbestosis and mesothelioma were modeled with Poisson regression analysis. Deaths to the end of 2005 were included., Results: There were 15,557 deaths between 1971 and 2005 among the 98,912 workers. Altogether 477 asbestosis and 649 mesothelioma cases were identified. The SMR for all causes was 1.42, for asbestosis 51.3, and for mesothelioma 13.5. In multiply adjusted analysis, age, sex, job, and birth cohort were significantly associated with asbestosis and mesothelioma. For asbestosis year of first exposure, and for mesothelioma latency, were also statistically significant., Conclusions: The asbestos workers experienced high mortality from all causes, asbestosis, and mesothelioma. There was some evidence that the risk of asbestosis and mesothelioma was lower in later birth cohorts and among those first occupationally exposed to asbestos more recently. Due to the long latency of both diseases, further follow-up is required to confirm these trends., (© 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Background: Mesothelioma mortality has increased more than ten-fold over the past 40 years in Great Britain, with >1700 male deaths recorded in the British mesothelioma register in 2006. Annual mesothelioma deaths now account for >1% of all cancer deaths. A Poisson regression model based on a previous work by Hodgson et al has been fitted, which has allowed informed statistical inferences about model parameters and predictions of future mesothelioma mortality to be made., Methods: In the Poisson regression model, the mesothelioma risk of an individual depends on the average collective asbestos dose for the individual in a given year and an age-specific exposure potential. The model has been fitted to the data within a Bayesian framework using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, providing credible intervals for model parameters as well as prediction intervals for the number of future cases of mortality., Results: Males were most likely to have been exposed to asbestos between the ages of 30 and 49 years, with the peak year of asbestos exposure estimated to be 1963. The estimated number of background cases was 1.08 cases per million population., Conclusion: Mortality among males is predicted to peak at approximately 2040 deaths in the year 2016, with a rapid decline thereafter. Approximately 91,000 deaths are predicted to occur from 1968 to 2050 with around 61,000 of these occurring from 2007 onwards.

Background: Simian virus 40 (SV40) is a DNA virus that has been shown capable of infecting and transforming cells in various species. Laboratory studies have suggested that inoculation with SV40 is associated with various types of cancer, including mesothelioma., Aims: To test the hypothesis, via an ecological analysis, that exposure to SV40 via contaminated polio vaccines is a risk factor for mesothelioma in humans., Methods: Mesothelioma mortality rates in Great Britain for two birth cohorts likely to have been exposed to SV40 via poliovirus vaccination were compared with a birth cohort likely to be largely unexposed., Results: There was some evidence for both males (P < 0.05) and females (P < 0.05) that the mesothelioma mortality rates were higher in the first exposed cohort: rate ratio (RR) = 2.4 [95% CI (confidence interval) 1.2-5.0] and RR = 3.7 (95% CI 1.0-14). However, in the second exposed cohort, mortality rates were elevated in females only, and the evidence was slightly less convincing (P = 0.055)., Conclusion: Although the results for females show a reduction in the mesothelioma mortality rate coinciding with the introduction of the SV40-free Sabin polio vaccine, the absence of a similar result in males and of a priori biological evidence of a sex-specific SV40 effect, makes chance the most plausible interpretation of these findings.

Introduction: Inhalation of asbestos fibres is known to cause two main kinds of cancer-mesothelioma and lung cancer. While the vast majority of mesothelioma cases are generally accepted as being caused by asbestos, the proportion of asbestos-related lung cancers is less clear and cannot be determined directly because cases are not clinically distinguishable from those due to other causes. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of asbestos-related lung cancers among males by modelling their relative lung cancer mortality among occupations within Great Britain in terms of smoking habits, mesothelioma mortality (as an index of asbestos exposure) and occupation type (as a proxy for socio-economic factors)., Methods: Proportional mortality ratios for lung cancer and mesothelioma for the 20-year period from 1980 to 2000 (excluding 1981) were calculated for occupational groups. Smoking indicators were developed from three General Household Surveys carried out during the 1980s and 1990s. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the number of asbestos-related lung cancers by estimating the number of lung cancer deaths in each occupation assuming no asbestos exposure and subtracting this from the actual predicted number of lung cancer deaths., Results: The effect of asbestos exposure in predicting lung cancer mortality was weak in comparison to smoking habits and occupation type. The proportion of current smokers in occupational groups and average age at which they started smoking were particularly important factors. Our estimate of the number of asbestos-related lung cancers was between two-thirds and one death for every mesothelioma death: equivalent to between 11 500 and 16 500 deaths during the time period studied., Conclusions: Asbestos-related lung cancer is likely to have accounted for 2-3% of all lung cancer deaths among males in Great Britain over the last two decades of the 20th century. Asbestos-related lung cancers are likely to remain an important component of the total number of lung cancer deaths in the future as part of the legacy of past asbestos exposures in occupational settings.

Background: The British mesothelioma register contains all deaths from 1968 to 2001 where mesothelioma was mentioned on the death certificate., Aims: To present summary statistics of the British mesothelioma epidemic including summaries by occupation and geographical area., Methods: Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for local authorities, unitary authorities and counties. Temporal trends in SMRs were also examined. Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs) were calculated using the Southampton (based on the 1980 standard occupational classification) coding scheme. Temporal trends in PMRs were also examined., Results: The annual number of mesothelioma deaths has increased from 153 in 1968 to 1848 in 2001. Current deaths in males account for about 85% of the cases. The areas of West Dunbartonshire (SMR 637), Barrow-in-Furness (593), Plymouth (396) and Portsmouth (388) have the highest SMRs over the period 1981-2000. The occupations with the highest PMRs are metal plate workers (PMR 503), vehicle body builders (526), plumbers and gas fitters (413) and carpenters (388)., Conclusions: These data reinforce earlier findings that geographical areas and occupations associated with high exposure to asbestos in the past continue to drive the mesothelioma epidemic in Great Britain. However, the trends over time suggest a change in the balance of risk away from traditional asbestos exposure industries to industries where one could describe the exposure as secondary, such as plumbers and gas fitters, carpenters, and electricians.

The British mesothelioma register contains all deaths from 1968 to 2001 where mesothelioma was mentioned on the death certificate. These data were used to predict the future burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain. Poisson regression analysis was used to model male mesothelioma deaths from 1968 to 2001 as a function of the rise and fall of asbestos exposure during the 20th century, and hence to predict numbers of male deaths in the years 2002-2050. The annual number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain has risen increasingly rapidly from 153 deaths in 1968 to 1848 in 2001 and, using our preferred model, is predicted to peak at around 1950 to 2450 deaths per year between 2011 and 2015. Following this peak, the number of deaths is expected to decline rapidly. The eventual death rate will depend on the background level and any residual asbestos exposure. Between 1968 and 2050, there will have been approximately 90,000 deaths from mesothelioma in Great Britain, 65,000 of which will occur after 2001.

Background: We became aware of concern about cancer at a Scottish semiconductor manufacturing facility in 1998. Aim To compare cancer experience among current and former workers at the facility, with an appropriate comparison population, making use of any readily available exposure information., Method: We obtained personnel and employment episode information from four sources within the company. Workers were flagged for death and cancer registrations at the National Health Service Central Register in Edinburgh. We constructed standardized registration and mortality ratios (SRRs and SMRs), using Scotland as the comparison, with and without an adjustment for deprivation., Results: The main mortality analysis included 4388 workers, with a mean length of follow-up of 12.5 years. Overall mortality was substantially below that expected for men, and for women was slightly below expected. Total cancer registrations were close to expected levels for men and women. Four cancers produced noteworthy findings: malignant neoplasm of the trachea, bronchus and lung in women-deprivation adjusted SRR [95% confidence interval (CI), number of cases] 273 (136-488, 11 cases); malignant neoplasm of the stomach in women-adjusted SRR 438 (90-1281, three cases); and malignant neoplasm of the female breast-adjusted SRR 134 (82-206, 20 cases). The unadjusted SMR for male brain cancer was 401 (83-1172, three cases) and there was an additional non-fatal case., Conclusion: These findings, particularly those relating to lung cancer, though inconclusive, point to the possibility of a work-related risk of cancer that justifies further investigation.