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Land-use intensification on arable land is expanding and posing a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. We develop methods to link funding for avian breeding habitat conservation and management at landscape scales to equilibrium abundance of a migratory species at the continental scale. We apply this novel approach to a harvested bird valued by birders and hunters in North America, the northern pintail duck (Anas acuta), a species well below its population goal. Based on empirical observations from 2007–2016, habitat conservation investments for waterfowl cost $313 M and affected

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

A simulation‐based power analysis can be used to estimate the sample sizes needed for a successful monitoring program, but requires technical expertise and sometimes extensive computing resources. We developed a web‐based lookup app, called TrendPowerTool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/TrendPowerTool/), to provide guidance for ecological monitoring programs when resources are not available for a simulation‐based power analysis. TrendPowerTool is implemented through the shiny package in R, but is accessible through a webpage without the need for users to install any software. By drawing on results of 1.4 million scenarios that we simulated on a supercomputer, TrendPowerTool quickly and easily provides an estimate of the statistical power to detect a population trend of a particular magnitude with a planned monitoring program, based on user‐specified parameters for the monitoring design and population of interest. TrendPowerTool provides a user‐friendly interface that retrieves results instantaneously, facilitating the important step of conducting a power analysis when designing monitoring programs.

Community science is an increasingly integral part of biodiversity research and monitoring, often achieving broad spatial and temporal coverage but lower sampling intensity than studies conducted by professional scientists. When designing a community‐science monitoring programme, careful assessment of sampling designs that could be both feasible and successful at meeting programme goals is essential. Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) are the focus of several successful community‐science projects in the U.S., but broader coverage is needed to monitor breeding areas and explain population declines observed in overwintering areas. The U.S. Monarch Conservation Science Partnership's Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program (IMMP) will representatively monitor monarchs and milkweed across North America. We performed a simulation‐based power analysis to predict trade‐offs between sampling breadth (number of sites and years) and sampling intensity (number of visits or subplots per site and year) for the IMMP. We evaluated whether each sampling design would produce sufficient statistical power to detect population trends and differences among land‐use sectors in densities of milkweed, monarch eggs, and adult monarchs. Sampling breadth had much stronger effects than sampling intensity on statistical power for all three monitoring targets. Depending on land‐use sector, monitoring 400–800 sites over 10–15 years would detect trends in densities of milkweed and adult monarchs, but no scenarios were successful for monarch eggs. Sampling 400–800 sites would also detect small (for adult monarchs) to large (for milkweed) differences among land‐use sectors in density of all three monitoring targets within the first 2–5 years. As more data become available from the IMMP, the sampling goals can be updated. Synthesis and applications. Careful sample design is an essential step in developing a successful monitoring programme. For monarchs and milkweed, we found that sampling breadth (number of sites and years) had a much stronger effect on statistical power than sampling intensity (number of visits or subsamples per site), suggesting field protocols could be tailored to maximize recruitment and retention of volunteers by minimizing the effort required to monitor each site. Many long‐term monitoring programmes might similarly benefit from evaluating the statistical trade‐offs between sampling breadth and intensity in their sampling designs.

Using contingent valuation, we estimated willingness to pay (WTP) in Canada, Mexico, and the United States to protect habitat for Northern Pintails (hereafter pintails), a migratory waterfowl species that provides benefits to and requires habitat in the three countries. Our study contributes to research on spatial subsidies by measuring the value of migratory species habitat. While WTP to protect pintail habitat is highest in the household's own country, there also is substantial WTP to protect pintail habitat in the other two countries. Canadian households' annual WTP is US$12 (all dollar values are in 2016 US dollars) to stabilize the pintail population in Canada, US$4 in Mexico, and US$5 in the U.S. Mexican households would pay US$8 in Mexico, US$5 in the U.S., and US$5 in Canada. U.S. households would pay US$28 in the U.S., US$18 in Canada, and US$16 in Mexico. WTP is statistically significantly higher in all three countries to increase the pintail population. WTP as a percentage of household income is statistically significantly higher for respondents in Mexico. WTP is logically related to explanatory variables such as respondent income, interest in hunting waterfowl, and financial support of wildlife conservation organizations. This study has important implications for conducting economic analyses of habitat issues of transboundary migratory species' conservation and to more effectively and equitably achieve conservation goals.

Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) version 4.0 is a fully open-source, GIS-based tool designed to aid in the creation of quantitative, spatially explicit models of the nonmonetary values attributed to cultural ecosystem services, such as aesthetics and recreation, specifically to facilitate their incorporation into larger ecosystem service assessments. Newly redeveloped for QGIS, SolVES can be applied in a wide variety of biophysical and social contexts including mountain, forest, coastal, riparian, agricultural, and urban settings worldwide. Redeveloping SolVES for an open-source platform was intended to expand its user base by eliminating the cost of proprietary GIS software licenses and to remove the impact of proprietary software changes on SolVES development. Providing additional options would enable users to delineate relevant stakeholder groups to better assess how differing preferences impact the intensity and spatial distribution of perceived social values.

The consequences of environmental disturbance and management are difficult to quantify for spatially structured populations because changes in one location carry through to other areas as a result of species movement. We develop a metric

A basic question concerning the monarch butterflies' fall migration is which monarchs succeed in reaching overwintering sites in Mexico, which fail—and why. We document the timing and pace of the fall migration, ask whether the sun's position in the sky is associated with the pace of the migration, and ask whether timing affects success in completing the migration. Using data from the Monarch Watch tagging program, we explore whether the fall monarch migration is associated with the daily maximum vertical angle of the sun above the horizon (Sun Angle at Solar Noon, SASN) or whether other processes are more likely to explain the pace of the migration. From 1998 to 2015, more than 1.38 million monarchs were tagged and 13,824 (1%) were recovered in Mexico. The pace of migration was relatively slow early in the migration but increased in late September and declined again later in October as the migrating monarchs approached lower latitudes. This slow-fast-slow pacing in the fall migration is consistent with monarchs reaching latitudes with the same SASN, day after day, as they move south to their overwintering sites. The observed pacing pattern and overall movement rates are also consistent with monarchs migrating at a pace determined by interactions among SASN, temperature, and daylength. The results suggest monarchs successfully reaching the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) migrate within a “migration window” with an SASN of about 57° at the leading edge of the migration and 46° at the trailing edge. Ninety percent of the tags recovered in Mexico were from monarchs tagged within this window. Migrants reaching locations along the migration route with SASN outside this migration window may be considered early or late migrants. We noted several years with low overwintering abundance of monarchs, 2004 and 2011–2014, with high percentages of late migrants. This observation suggests a possible effect of migration timing on population size. The migration window defined by SASN can serve as a framework against which to establish the influence of environmental factors on the size, geographic distribution, and timing of past and future fall migrations.

Many economic studies value birdwatching in general and often do not account for potential differences in viewers’ benefits from observing different species. But, how different are economic values ...

Migratory species provide ecosystem goods and services throughout their annual cycles, often over long distances. Designing effective conservation solutions for migratory species requires knowledge of both species ecology and the socioeconomic context of their migrations. We present a framework built around the concept that migratory species act as carriers, delivering benefit flows to people throughout their annual cycle that are supported by the network of ecosystems upon which the species depend. We apply this framework to the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) migration of eastern North America by calculating their spatial subsidies. Spatial subsidies are the net ecosystem service flows throughout a species’ range and a quantitative measure of the spatial mismatch between the locations where people receive most benefits and the locations of habitats that most support the species. Results indicate cultural benefits provided by monarchs in the U.S. and Canada are subsidized by migration and overwintering habitat in Mexico. At a finer scale, throughout the monarch range, habitat in rural landscapes subsidizes urban residents. Understanding the spatial distribution of benefits derived from and ecological support provided to monarchs and other migratory species offers a promising means of understanding the costs and benefits associated with conservation across jurisdictional borders.

Migratory species provide important benefits to society, but their cross-border conservation poses serious challenges. By quantifying the economic value of ecosystem services (ESs) provided across a species’ range and ecological data on a species’ habitat dependence, we estimate spatial subsidies—how different regions support ESs provided by a species across its range. We illustrate this method for migratory northern pintail ducks in North America. Pintails support over $101 million USD annually in recreational hunting and viewing and subsistence hunting in the U.S. and Canada. Pintail breeding regions provide nearly $30 million in subsidies to wintering regions, with the “Prairie Pothole” region supplying over $24 million in annual benefits to other regions. This information can be used to inform conservation funding allocation among migratory regions and nations on which the pintail depends. We thus illustrate a transferrable method to quantify migratory species-derived ESs and provide information to aid in their transboundary conservation. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-018-1049-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals' "removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened." We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species' range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria-redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)-that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.

This article discusses the conservation challenges of volant migratory transborder species and conservation governance primarily in North America. Many migratory species provide ecosystem service benefits to society. For example, insectivorous bats prey on crop pests and reduce the need for pesticides; birds and insects pollinate food plants; and birds afford recreational opportunities to hunters and birdwatchers. Migration is driven by the seasonal availability of resources; as resources in one area become seasonally scarce, individuals move to locations where resources have become seasonally abundant. The separation of the annual lifecycle means that species management and governance is often fractured across international borders. Because migratory species depend on habitat in different locations, their ability to provide ecosystem services in one area depends on the spatial subsidies, or support, provided by habitat and ecological processes in other areas. This creates telecouplings, or interconnections across geographic space, of areas such that impacts to the habitat of a migratory species in one location will affect the benefits enjoyed by people in other locations. Information about telecoupling and spatial subsidies can be used to craft new governance arrangements such as Payment for Ecosystem Services programs that target specific stakeholder groups and locations. We illustrate these challenges and opportunities with three North American case studies: the Duck Stamp Program, Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), and monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus).

Human perceptions of the landscape can influence land-use and land-management decisions. Recognizing the diversity of landscape perceptions across space and time is essential to understanding land change processes and emergent landscape patterns. We summarize the role of landscape perceptions in the land change process, demonstrate advances in quantifying and mapping landscape perceptions, and describe how these spatially explicit techniques have and may benefit land change research. Mapping landscape perceptions is becoming increasingly common, particularly in research focused on quantifying ecosystem services provision. Spatial representations of landscape perceptions, often measured in terms of landscape values and functions, provide an avenue for matching social and environmental data in land change studies. Integrating these data can provide new insights into land change processes, contribute to landscape planning strategies, and guide the design and implementation of land change models. Challenges remain in creating spatial representations of human perceptions. Maps must be accompanied by descriptions of whose perceptions are being represented and the validity and uncertainty of those representations across space. With these considerations, rapid advancements in mapping landscape perceptions hold great promise for improving representation of human dimensions in landscape ecology and land change research.

Significant increases in outdoor recreation participants are projected over the next 50 years for national forests across the United States, with even larger increases possible for forests located in the Southern Rocky Mountains. Forest managers will be challenged to balance increasing demand for outdoor recreation with other ecosystem services. Future management needs could be better anticipated with information describing how and where stakeholders value these forests’ cultural ecosystem services, as well as how management might impact these values. We analyzed land-use change scenarios to quantify changes in aesthetic and recreational ecosystem service values and assessed trade-offs between these values relative to forest stakeholder groups defined by their attitudes regarding motorized recreation. We adapted the GIS tool, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES), for scenario analysis and applied it to two national forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains to examine impacts of road-network expansion on stakeholder values. Our approach allowed us to quantify changes in the spatial distribution and intensity of aesthetic and recreation values. Trade-off assessments between the two values indicated that areas of conflicting value changes were limited, even when accounting for different user groups. However, this approach could be an important means of conflict resolution for multi-use management.

Development from extracting oil and gas resources can have unintended effects on multiple ecosystem functions, with cascading effects on wildlife, ecosystem services, and local economies. Big-game hunting opportunities may be closely related to these effects, but empirical analyses of impacts of energy development on hunting are limited. We examined the influence of oil and gas development density on harvest efficiency, or harvest per unit of hunter effort, within all hunt areas in Wyoming, USA, from 2008 to 2014 for 3 big-game species: elk (Cervus canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). Using harvest/hunter day as the response variable, we compared linear mixed-effects models for each species that included total well density (i.e., all wells constructed up to the year of record), active well density (i.e., only those wells currently producing oil or gas in that year), or neither as a predictor variable. We used well densities as indicators of development in the absence of data specifying the locations of other oil and gas infrastructure (e.g., roads, well pads). Models also accounted for the fixed effects of road density, hunter density, proportion of the area that is public land with unrestricted hunter access, proportion of the area that is forested, year of observation, and random effects of variation among hunt areas nested within associated game herd units. Presence of oil and gas wells had a positive influence on harvest efficiency for elk and mule deer. Although there was no overall effect to pronghorn, there was a negative influence of wells on juvenile pronghorn harvest efficiency. Changes in harvest efficiency due to expanding oil and gas development could alter the time spent hunting by hunters and their chances of harvesting an animal. This could have subsequent impacts on hunter satisfaction, game populations, and economic revenue generated from recreational hunters. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

1. The monarch has undergone considerable population declines over the past decade, and the governments of Mexico, Canada, and the United States have agreed to work together to conserve the species. 2. Given limited resources, understanding where to focus conservation action is key for widespread species like monarchs. To support planning for continental-scale monarch habitat restoration, we address the question of where restoration efforts are likely to have the largest impacts on monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus Linn.) population growth rates. 3. We present a spatially explicit demographic model simulating the multi-generational annual cycle of the eastern monarch population, and use the model to examine management scenarios, some of which focus on particular regions of North America. 4. Improving the monarch habitat in the north central or southern parts of the monarch range yields a slightly greater increase in the population growth rate than restoration in other regions. However, combining restoration efforts across multiple regions yields population growth rates above 1 with smaller simulated improvements in habitat per region than single-region strategies. 5. Synthesis and applications: These findings suggest that conservation investment in projects across the full monarch range will be more effective than focusing on one or a few regions, and will require international cooperation across many land use categories.

Stabilizing the eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) is expected to require substantial habitat restoration on agricultural land in their core breeding area, the Upper Midwestern United States. Previous research has considered the potential to utilize marginal land for this purpose because of its low productivity, erodible soils, and high nutrient input requirements. This strategy has strong potential for restoring milkweed (Asclepias spp.), but may be limited in terms of its ability to generate additional biophysical, and socioeconomic benefits for local communities. Here we explore the possibility of restoring milkweed via the creation of continuous riparian buffer strips around rivers and streams throughout the region. We use a GIS-based analysis to consider the potential of several different buffer-width scenarios to meet milkweed restoration targets. We further estimate the ability of these habitat areas to provide additional functionality in the form of crop pollination and water quality regulation across the entire region. Finally, we conduct a cost-benefit analysis comparing the conservative economic value of these ecosystem services with the lost value of crops for each scenario. Results suggest that riparian buffers could be used to meet 10–43% of the total milkweed restoration target of 1.3 billion new stems with moderate management. The value of water quality and pollination benefits provided by buffers is estimated to exceed costs only for our narrowest buffer scenario, with a cost-benefit ratio of 1:2. Larger buffer widths provide more milkweed, but costs to farmers exceed the benefits we were able to quantify. The restoration of narrow multifunctional riparian corridors thus has the potential to be a win-win scenario, adding milkweed stems while also providing a variety of other valuable benefits. This suggests the potential to leverage monarch habitat restoration efforts for the benefit of a wider variety of species and broader coalition of beneficiaries.

Data for biophysically modeled and Public Participatory GIS (PPGIS)-derived cultural ecosystem services have potential to identify natural resource management synergies and conflicts, but have rarely been combined. Ecosystem service hot/coldspots generated using different methods vary in their spatial extent and connectivity, with important implications. We map biophysically modeled and PPGIS-derived cultural services for six U.S. national forests using six hot/coldspot delineation methods. We evaluate the implications of hotspot methods for management within and outside of designated wilderness areas. We used the ARIES and SolVES modeling tools to quantify four biophysically modeled and 11 largely cultural ecosystem services for six national forests in Colorado and Wyoming, USA. We mapped hot/coldspots using two quantile methods (top and bottom 10 and 33 % of values), two area-based methods (top and bottom 10 and 33 % of area), and two statistical methods (Getis-Ord Gi* at α = 0.05 and 0.10 significance level) and compare results within and outside wilderness areas. Delineation methods vary in their degree of conservatism for hot/coldspot extents and spatial clustering. Hotspots were more common in wilderness areas in national forests near the more densely populated Colorado Front Range, while coldspots were more common in wilderness areas in more urban-distant forests in northwest Wyoming. Statistical hotspot methods of intermediate conservatism (i.e., Getis-Ord Gi*, α = 0.10 significance) may be most useful for ecosystem service hot/coldspot mapping to inform landscape scale planning. We also found spatially explicit evidence in support of past findings about public attitudes toward wilderness areas.

Large samples and long time series are often needed for effective broad-scale monitoring of status and trends in wild populations. Obtaining those sample sizes can be more feasible when volunteers contribute to the dataset, but volunteer-selected sites are not always representative of a population. Previous work to account for biased site selection has relied on knowledge of covariates to explain differences between site types, but such knowledge is often unavailable. For cases where relevant covariates have not been defined, we used a simulation study to identify the consequences of including non-probabilistically selected sites (NP sites) in addition to sites selected from a probability-based design (P sites), test modeling frameworks that might correct for biases, and evaluate whether those frameworks could allow NP sites to reduce the sampling requirement for P sites and potentially reduce costs of monitoring. We informed the simulation with pilot data from surveys of monarch butterflies and their obligate larval host plant, milkweed. We found strong biases in NP sites versus P sites in density and trends of monarchs and milkweed. Modeling frameworks that accounted for site type with a group effect or that strongly downweighted NP sites successfully produced unbiased estimates. However, sampling more NP sites typically did not improve accuracy or precision, and adding NP sites sometimes required also adding P sites to prevent biases. Further work on novel modeling frameworks would be useful to allow citizen-science data to contribute useful information to conservation.

Investment in conservation and ecological restoration depends on various socioeconomic factors and the social license for these activities. Our study demonstrates a method for targeting management of ecosystem services based on social values, identified by respondents through a collection of social survey data. We applied the Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) geographic information systems (GIS)-based tool in the Sonoita Creek watershed, Arizona, to map social values across the watershed. The survey focused on how respondents engage with the landscape, including through their ranking of 12 social values (eg, recreational, economic, or aesthetic value) and their placement of points on a map to identify their associations with the landscape. Additional information was elicited regarding how respondents engaged with water and various land uses, as well as their familiarity with restoration terminology. Results show how respondents perceive benefits from the natural environment. Specifically, maps of social values on the landscape show high social value along streamlines. Life-sustaining services, biological diversity, and aesthetics were the respondents’ highest rated social values. Land surrounding National Forest and private lands had lower values than conservation-based and state-owned areas, which we associate with landscape features. Results can inform watershed management by allowing managers to consider social values when prioritizing restoration or conservation investments.

Abstract ContextFunding for habitat-management programs to maintain population viability is critical for conservation of migratory species; however, such financial resources are limited and can vary greatly over time. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is an excellent system for examining spatiotemporal patterns of funding for waterfowl conservation, because this transboundary region is crucial for reproduction and migration of many duck species. AimsWe examine large-scale spatiotemporal variation in funding for waterfowl habitat conservation in the PPR during 2007–2016. Specifically, we quantify major sources of funding and how funds were directed towards particular geographies within Canada and the USA. We further examine how sources and magnitude of funding changed over time and in relation to numbers of hunters. MethodsWe assembled data from multiple sources to quantify funding (in US$, 2016 values) from (1) USA states and non-government organisations (NGOs), (2) Canadian government and NGOs, and (3) major USA-based federal funding sources to the Canadian and US portions of the PPR between 2007 and 2016. We fit linear regressions to examine spatiotemporal variation in funding and in numbers of active waterfowl hunters in the USA. Key resultsWhereas annual funding for the Canadian portion was comparatively stable throughout the 10 years (range: US$25–41 million), funding for the US portion was dynamic and increased between the first (range: US$36–48 million) and second (range: US$43–117 million) 5-year intervals, despite concurrent declines in the number of active waterfowl hunters in the USA. ConclusionsWe discovered contrasting trends and dynamics in multiple streams of funding for habitat conservation on each side of the border bisecting the PPR. These findings and approaches warrant closer attention by wildlife professionals. Work is needed to analyse past and future funding for habitat conservation, which can then be used to refine plans for maintaining or recovering populations of migratory species. ImplicationsAlthough funding for waterfowl habitat conservation in the PPR increased over the past decade, trends were inconsistent among subregions and uncertain for some major funding sources. Better understanding of the complexities in funding will help inform more efficient long-term planning efforts for conservation of waterfowl and other migratory species.

Increasing interest in measuring, modelling and valuing ecosystem services (ES), the benefits that ecosystems provide to people, has resulted in the development of an array of ES assessment tools in recent years. Selecting an appropriate tool for measuring and modelling ES can be challenging. This document provides guidance for practitioners on existing tools that can be applied to measure or model ES provided by important sites for biodiversity and nature conservation, including Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), natural World Heritage sites (WHS), and protected areas (PAs). Selecting an appropriate tool requires identifying the specific question being addressed, what sorts of results or outputs are required, and consideration of practical factors such as the level of expertise, time and data required for applying any given tool. This guide builds on existing reviews of ES assessment tools, but has an explicit focus on assessing ES for sites of importance for biodiversity and nature conservation.

We estimated U.S. and Mexican citizens' willingness to pay (WTP) for protecting habitat for a transborder migratory species, the Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), using the contingent valuation method. Few contingent valuation surveys have evaluated whether households in one country would pay to protect habitat in another country. This study addresses that gap. In our study, Mexican respondents were asked about their WTP for conservation of Mexican free-tailed bat habitat in Mexico and in the United States. Similarly, U.S. respondents were asked about their WTP for conservation in the United States and in Mexico. U.S. households would pay $30 annually to protect habitat in the United States and $24 annually to protect habitat in Mexico. Mexican households would pay $8 annually to protect habitat in Mexico and $5 annually to protect habitat in the United States. In both countries, these WTP amounts rose significantly for increasing the size of the bat population rather than simply stabilizing the current bat population. The ratio of Mexican household WTP relative to U.S. household WTP is nearly identical to that of Mexican household income relative to U.S. household income. This suggests that the perceived economic benefits received from the bats is similar in Mexico and the United States, and that scaling WTP by relative income in international benefit transfer may be plausible.

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.

Quantification of the economic value provided by migratory species can aid in targeting management efforts and funding to locations yielding the greatest benefits to society and species conservation. Here we illustrate a key step in this process by estimating hunting and birding values of the northern pintail (Anas acuta) within primary breeding and wintering habitats used during the species' annual migratory cycle in North America. We used published information on user expenditures and net economic values (consumer surplus) for recreational viewing and hunting to determine the economic value of pintail-based recreation in three primary breeding areas and two primary wintering areas. Summed expenditures and consumer surplus for northern pintail viewing were annually valued at $70M, and annual sport hunting totaled $31M (2014 USD). Expenditures for viewing ($42M) were more than twice as high than those for hunting ($18M). Estimates of consumer surplus, defined as the amount consumers are willing to pay above their current expenditures, were $15M greater for viewing ($28M) than for hunting ($13M). We discovered substantial annual consumer surplus ($41M) available for pintail conservation from birders and hunters. We also found spatial differences in economic value among the primary regions used by pintails, with viewing generally valued more in breeding regions than in wintering regions and the reverse being true for hunting. The economic value of pintail-based recreation in the Western wintering region ($26M) exceeded that in any other region by at least a factor of three. Our approach of developing regionally explicit economic values can be extended to other taxonomic groups, and is particularly suitable for migratory game birds because of the availability of large amounts of data. When combined with habitat-linked population models, regionally explicit values could inform development of more effective conservation finance and policy mechanisms to enhance environmental management and societal benefits across the geographically dispersed areas used by migratory species.

Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, which is then multiplied by the density of individuals per hectare to estimate population size. There is, however, considerable variation in published estimates of overwintering density, ranging from 6.9–60.9 million ha-1. We develop a probability distribution for overwinter density of monarch butterflies from six published density estimates. The mean density among the mixture of the six published estimates was ~27.9 million butterflies ha-1 (95% CI: 2.4–80.7 million ha-1); the mixture distribution is approximately log-normal, and as such is better represented by the median (21.1 million butterflies ha-1). Based upon assumptions regarding the number of milkweed needed to support monarchs, the amount of milkweed (Asclepias spp.) lost (0.86 billion stems) in the northern U.S. plus the amount of milkweed remaining (1.34 billion stems), we estimate >1.8 billion stems is needed to return monarchs to an average population size of 6 ha. Considerable uncertainty exists in this required amount of milkweed because of the considerable uncertainty occurring in overwinter density estimates. Nevertheless, the estimate is on the same order as other published estimates. The studies included in our synthesis differ substantially by year, location, method, and measures of precision. A better understanding of the factors influencing overwintering density across space and time would be valuable for increasing the precision of conservation recommendations.

Drivers of environmental change in one location can have profound effects on ecosystem services and human well-being in distant locations, often across international borders. The telecoupling provides a conceptual framework for describing these interactions - for example, locations can be defined as sending areas (sources of flows of ecosystem services, energy, or information) or receiving areas (recipients of flows). However, the ability to quantify feedbacks between ecosystem change in one area and societal benefits in other areas requires analytical approaches. We use spatial subsidies - an approach developed to measure the degree to which a migratory species' ability to provide services in one location depends on habitat in another location - as an example of how telecoupling can be operationalized. Using the cotton pest control and ecotourism services of Mexican free-tailed bats as an example, we determined that of the 16 states in the United States and Mexico where the species resides, three states (Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado) are receiving areas, while the rest of the states are sending areas. In addition, the magnitude of spatial subsidy can be used as an indicator of the degree to which different locations are telecoupled to other locations. In this example, the Mexican free-tailed bat ecosystem services to cotton production and ecotourism in Texas and New Mexico are heavily dependent on winter habitat in four states in central and southern Mexico. In sum, spatial subsidies can be used to operationalize the telecoupling conceptual framework by identifying sending and receiving areas, and by indicating the degree to which locations are telecoupled to other locations.

The monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Conservation planning can be challenging due to the need to balance biological concerns about population viability with social concerns about the benefits biodiversity provide to society, often while operating under a limited budget. Methods and tools that help prioritize conservation actions are critical for the management of at-risk species. Here, we use a multi-attribute utility function to assess the optimal maternity roosts to conserve for maintaining the population viability and the ecosystem services of a single species, the Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana). Mexican free-tailed bats provide ecosystem services such as insect pest-suppression in agricultural areas and recreational viewing opportunities, and may be threatened by climate change and development of wind energy. We evaluated each roost based on five attributes: the maternity roost’s contribution to population viability, the pest suppression ecosystem services to the surrounding area provided by the bats residing in the roost, the ecotourism value of the roost, the risks posed to each roost structure, and the risks posed to the population of bats residing in each roost. We compared several scenarios that prioritized these attributes differently, hypothesizing that the set of roosts with the highest rankings would vary according to the conservation scenario. Our results indicate that placing higher values on different roost attributes (e.g. population importance over ecosystem service value) altered the roost rankings. We determined that the values placed on various conservation objectives are an important determinant of habitat planning.

Migratory species provide economically beneficial ecosystem services to people throughout their range, yet often, information is lacking about the magnitude and spatial distribution of these benefi...

With growing pressures on ecosystem services, social values attributed to them are increasingly important to land management decisions. Social values, defined here as perceived values the public ascribes to ecosystem services, particularly cultural services, are generally not accounted for through economic markets or considered alongside economic and ecological values in ecosystem service assessments. Social-values data can be elicited through public value and preference surveys; however, limitations prevent them from being regularly collected. These limitations led to our three study objectives: (1) demonstrate an approach for applying benefit transfer, a nonmarket-valuation method, to spatially explicit social values; (2) validate the approach; and (3) identify potential improvements. We applied Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) to survey data for three national forests in Colorado and Wyoming. Social-value maps and models were generated, describing relationships between the maps and various combinations of environmental variables. Models from each forest were used to estimate social-value maps for the other forests via benefit transfer. Model performance was evaluated relative to the locally derived models. Performance varied with the number and type of environmental variables used, as well as differences in the forests׳ physical and social contexts. Enhanced metadata and better social-context matching could improve model transferability.

Despite widespread recognition that social-value information is needed to inform stakeholders and decision makers regarding trade-offs in environmental management, it too often remains absent from ecosystem service assessments. Although quantitative indicators of social values need to be explicitly accounted for in the decision-making process, they need not be monetary. Ongoing efforts to map such values demonstrate how they can also be made spatially explicit and relatable to underlying ecological information. We originally developed Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) as a tool to assess, map, and quantify nonmarket values perceived by various groups of ecosystem stakeholders. With SolVES 2.0 we have extended the functionality by integrating SolVES with Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social-value maps from available value and preference survey data and to produce more robust models describing the relationship between social values and ecosystems. The current study has two objectives: (1) evaluate how effectively the value index, a quantitative, nonmonetary social-value indicator calculated by SolVES, reproduces results from more common statistical methods of social-survey data analysis and (2) examine how the spatial results produced by SolVES provide additional information that could be used by managers and stakeholders to better understand more complex relationships among stakeholder values, attitudes, and preferences. To achieve these objectives, we applied SolVES to value and preference survey data collected for three national forests, the Pike and San Isabel in Colorado and the Bridger–Teton and the Shoshone in Wyoming. Value index results were generally consistent with results found through more common statistical analyses of the survey data such as frequency, discriminant function, and correlation analyses. In addition, spatial analysis of the social-value maps produced by SolVES provided information that was useful for explaining relationships between stakeholder values and forest uses. Our results suggest that SolVES can effectively reproduce information derived from traditional statistical analyses while adding spatially explicit, social-value information that can contribute to integrated resource assessment, planning, and management of forests and other ecosystems.

The ability to classify habitats and movement pathways as sources or sinks is an important part of the decision making process for the conservation of spatially structured populations. Diverse approaches have been used to quantify the importance of habitats and pathways in a spatial network; however, these approaches have been limited by a lack of general applicability across life histories and movement strategies. In this paper, we develop a generalized per-capita contribution metric, the C-metric, for quantifying habitat and pathway quality. This metric is novel in that it can be applied broadly to both metapopulations and migratory species. It allows for any number of age and sex classes, unlimited number of seasons or time intervals within the annual cycle, and for density-dependent parameters. We demonstrate the flexibility of the metric with four case studies: a hypothetical metapopulation, elk of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, northern pintail ducks in North America, and the eastern population of the monarch butterfly. General computer code to calculate the per-capita contribution metric is provided. We demonstrate that the C-metric is useful for identifying source and sink habitats in a network and suggest that the C-metric could be supplemented by some measure of network structure for a more robust description of habitat or pathway importance.

Recreational and aesthetic enjoyment of public lands is increasing across a wide range of activities, highlighting the need to assess and adapt management to accommodate these uses. Despite a growing number of studies on mapping cultural ecosystem services, most are local-scale assessments that rely on costly and time-consuming primary data collection. As a result, the availability of spatial information on non-market values associated with cultural ecosystem services (social values) remains limited. Spatial function transfer, if it could be justified for social-value models, would expedite the development of social-value information and promote its more regular inclusion in ecosystem service assessments. We used survey data from six national forests in Colorado and Wyoming to explore the potential for transferring cultural ecosystem service models between forests and specifically to test the hypothesis that transfer performance increases with social-context similarity between transferring and receiving areas. Results confirm this relationship but fall just short of being able to predict with certainty when transferred models will meet the minimum performance criterion needed for defensible use by managers. Our results suggest that with the right combination of indicators spatial function transfer can become a defensible means of generating social-value information when primary data collection is not feasible.

Climate change alters the functions of ecological systems. As a result, the provision of ecosystem services and the well-being of people that rely on these services are being modified. Climate models portend continued warming and more frequent extreme weather events across the US. Such weather-related disturbances will place a premium on the ecosystem services that people rely on. We discuss some of the observed and anticipated impacts of climate change on ecosystem service provision and livelihoods in the US. We also highlight promising adaptive measures. The challenge will be choosing which adaptive strategies to implement, given limited resources and time. We suggest using dynamic balance sheets or accounts of natural capital and natural assets to prioritize and evaluate national and regional adaptation strategies that involve ecosystem services.