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The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) is a popular time-series model used to predict future trends in economics, energy markets, and stock markets. It has not been widely applied to enrollment forecasting in higher education. The accuracy of the ARIMA model heavily relies on the length of time series. Researchers and practitioners often utilize the most recent - to -years of historical data to predict future enrollment; however, the accuracy of enrollment projection under different lengths of time series has never been investigated and compared. A simulation and an empirical study were conducted to thoroughly investigate the accuracy of ARIMA forecasting under four different lengths of time series. When the ARIMA model completely captured the historical changing trajectories, it provided the most accurate predictions of student enrollment with 20-years of historical data and had the lowest forecasting accuracy with the shortest time series. The results of this paper contribute as a reference to studies in the enrollment projection and time-series forecasting. It provides a practical impact on enrollment strategies, budges plans, and financial aid policies at colleges and institutions across countries.

Objective Many studies include oral HIV-related endpoints that may be diagnosed by non-oral-health specialists (non-OHS) like nurses or physicians. Our objective was to assess the accuracy of clinical diagnoses of HIV-related oral lesions made by non-OHS compared to diagnoses made by OHS. Methods A5254, a cross-sectional study conducted by the Oral HIV/AIDS Research Alliance within the AIDS Clinical Trial Group, enrolled HIV-1-infected adults participants from six clinical trial units (CTU) in the US (San Francisco, New York, Chapel Hill, Cleveland, Atlanta) and Haiti. CTU examiners (non-OHS) received standardized training on how to perform an oral examination and make clinical diagnoses of specific oral disease endpoints. Diagnoses by calibrated non-OHS were compared to those made by calibrated OHS, and sensitivity and specificity computed. Results Among 324 participants, the majority were black (73%), men (66%), and the median CD4+ cell count 138 cells/mm3. The overall frequency of oral mucosal disease diagnosed by OHS was 43% in US sites, and 90% in Haiti. Oral candidiasis (OC) was detected in 153 (47%) by OHS, with erythematous candidiasis (EC) the most common type (39%) followed by pseudomembranous candidiasis (PC; 26%). The highest prevalence of OC (79%) was among participants in Haiti, and among those with CD4+ cell count ≤ 200 cells/mm3 and HIV-1 RNA > 1000 copies/mL (71%). The sensitivity and specificity of OC diagnoses by non-OHS were 90% and 92% (for EC: 81% and 94%; PC: 82% and 95%). Sensitivity and specificity were also high for KS (87% and 94%, respectively), but sensitivity was < 60% for HL and oral warts in all sites combined. The Candida culture confirmation of OC clinical diagnoses (as defined by ≥ 1 colony forming unit per mL of oral/throat rinse) was ≥ 93% for both PC and EC. Conclusion Trained non-OHS showed high accuracy of clinical diagnoses of OC in comparison with OHS, suggesting their usefulness in studies in resource-poor settings, but detection of less common lesions may require OHS.

SETTING Port-au-Prince, Haiti. OBJECTIVE To determine long-term effects of early vs. delayed initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on immune recovery and tuberculosis (TB) risk in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected individuals. DESIGN Open-label randomized controlled trial of immediate ART in HIV-infected adults with CD4 counts between 200 and 350 cells/mm(3) vs. deferring ART until the CD4 count was

Purpose This study identified factors that contributed to bleeding complications associated with warfarin therapy that were documented as adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Methods A retrospective chart review was performed using the Medical Records Department's “E” code list of anticoagulant-related ADRs. Descriptive statistics were used to identify common factors associated with bleeding complications related to warfarin use. Results Patients 60 years of age or older experienced 78% of all events; a majority (81%) of reports involved the presence of comorbid conditions such as congestive heart failure, carcinoma, or sepsis. A supratherapeutic INR was documented for 75% of patients with anticoagulant-related ADRS. Conclusions Age, comorbid conditions, and anticoagulation intensity were identified as possible factors contributing to documented ADRs associated with warfarin therapy.

BACKGROUND:High attrition during the period from HIV testing to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is widely reported. Though treatment guidelines have changed to broaden ART eligibility and services have been widely expanded over the past decade, data on the temporal trends in pre-ART outcomes are limited; such data would be useful to guide future policy decisions. METHODS:We evaluated temporal trends and predictors of retention for each step from HIV testing to ART initiation over the past decade at the GHESKIO clinic in Port-au-Prince Haiti. The 24,925 patients >17 years of age who received a positive HIV test at GHESKIO from March 1, 2003 to February 28, 2013 were included. Patients were followed until they remained in pre-ART care for one year or initiated ART. RESULTS:24,925 patients (61% female, median age 35 years) were included, and 15,008 (60%) had blood drawn for CD4 count within 12 months of HIV testing; the trend increased over time from 36% in Year 1 to 78% in Year 10 (p500 cells/mm3, respectively. The trend increased over time for each CD4 strata, and in Year 10, 94%, 95%, 79%, and 74% were retained in pre-ART care or initiated ART for each CD4 strata. Predictors of pre-ART attrition included male gender, low income, and low educational status. Older age and tuberculosis (TB) at HIV testing were associated with retention in care. CONCLUSIONS:The proportion of patients completing assessments for ART eligibility, remaining in pre-ART care, and initiating ART have increased over the last decade across all CD4 count strata, particularly among patients with CD4 count ≤350 cells/mm3. However, additional retention efforts are needed for patients with higher CD4 counts.

With an ever-increasing number of consumers reportedly using non-conventional methods of disease management, nurses have now been recognized as key providers in education on complimentary and alternative medicine (CAM). The risk of herb-drug interactions secondary to consumer use of alternative medicines further increases the need for nurses to assume the role of patient educators in the area of CAM. Many nurses, however, feel rather ill-prepared to properly care for patients using CAM due to inadequate instruction on the subject matter during their training. Many nursing educators have now moved to address such concerns by considering including education on CAM therapies in the nursing school curriculum. This study evaluated CAM education in US nursing schools to gain a perspective on how nursing students are currently being trained. A survey questioning CAM education was administered to 148 nursing schools and collected over a 3-month period. The results indicate that nearly half of the responding schools offered some form of education on CAM in their curriculum with electives being the primary form of instruction. Teaching methodologies on CAM instruction in the curriculum included group discussion on CAM topics, lectures, and review of case studies. The majority of faculty respondents in this study held Ph.D. degrees followed by instructors holding a MS, DNS, and/or MSN degree.

To explore the nature of corporate gifts directed at PharmD programs and pharmacy student activities and the perceptions of administrators about the potential influences of such gifts.A verbally administered survey of administrative officials at 11 US colleges and schools of pharmacy was conducted and responses were analyzed.All respondents indicated accepting corporate gifts or sponsorships for student-related activities in the form of money, grants, scholarships, meals, trinkets, and support for special events, and cited many advantages to corporate partner relationships. Approximately half of the respondents believed that real or potential problems could occur from accepting corporate gifts. Forty-four percent of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that corporate contributions could influence college or school administration. Sixty-one percent agreed or strongly agreed that donations were likely to influence students.Corporate gifts do influence college and school of administration and students. Policies should be in place to manage this influence appropriately.