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Abstract Introduction Predictors of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related rehospitalization remain underexplored. This study aims to identify the main risk factors associated with rehospitalizations due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfections among residents of Lombardy, northern Italy. Methods A retrospective observational study was conducted using two linked administrative databases covering demographic data, comorbidities, hospital records, and COVID-19 data of Lombardy residents. The study population included patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between February 2020 and August 2021. Rehospitalization was defined as a second COVID-19-related hospitalization occurring at least 90 days after the first admission. The Fine–Gray subdistribution hazard model was used to identify risk factors, accounting for death as a competing risk. Results Out of 98,369 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between February 1, 2020 and August 31, 2021, 72,593 were alive 90 days after admission and 610 of these (0.8%) were rehospitalized. A higher rehospitalization risk was observed in older male patients with multiple comorbidities. Renal failure, liver disease, and use of diuretics were significantly associated with rehospitalization risk, while female biological sex and the use of lipid-lowering drugs were associated with a lower risk. Conclusions This is the first study conducted on regional administrative databases to investigate COVID-19 rehospitalizations. Through the availability of a huge cohort, it provides a groundwork for optimizing care for individuals at higher risk for COVID-19-related rehospitalizations. It underlines the need for patient-management approaches that extend beyond the initial recovery. This stresses the importance of ongoing monitoring and personalized interventions for those at heightened risk not only of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection but also related rehospitalizations.

Background: Health disparities related to socio-economic factors impact access to preventive health interventions. The PRECEDE–PROCEED model, a multidimensional approach to health promotion, has been adapted to optimise cancer screening programs in Lombardy, Italy, addressing these disparities. Methods: This study evaluated the application of systemic audits based on the PRECEDE–PROCEED model across Lombardy cancer screening programs. A systematic region-wide audit was performed in 2019, and follow-up audits were performed in 2022–2023. Data were collected using structured analysis methodologies, including epidemiological, behavioural, and organisational assessments. Results: The 2019 audit showed strengths in participation and quality standards but identified challenges in cervical cancer screening coverage and waiting times for assessments. Improvements plans included the digitisation of processes and stakeholder engagement. The 2022–2023 audits reported increased coverage for breast and colorectal screenings, but a slight decline in participation rates and examination coverage. Organisational improvements were noted, yet gaps in training and equity-targeted actions remained. Conclusion: The PRECEDE–PROCEED model audits led to notable improvements in the quality and equity of cancer screening programs in Lombardy. Sustained focus on digital integration, continuous re-training, and targeted equity interventions is essential for further progress.

Introduction: Here we reported the virological, entomological and epidemiological characteristics of the large autochthonous outbreak of dengue (DENV) occurred in a small village of the Lombardy region (Northern Italy) during summer 2023. Methods: After the diagnosis of the first autochthonous case on August 18, 2023, public health measures, including epidemiological investigation and vector control measures, were carried out. A serological screening for DENV antibodies detection was offered to the population. In the case of positive DENV IgM, a second sample was collected to detect DENV RNA and verify seroconversion. Entomological and epidemiological investigations were also performed. A modeling analysis was conducted to estimate the dengue generation time, transmission potential, distance of transmission, and assess diagnostic delays. Results: Overall, 416 subjects participated to the screening program and 20 were identified as DENV-1 cases (15 confirmed and 5 probable). In addition, DENV-1 infection was diagnosed in 24 symptomatic subjects referred to the local Emergency Room Department for suggestive symptoms and 1 case was identified through blood donation screening. The average generation time was estimated to be 18.3 days (95 % CI: 13.1–23.5 days). R0 was estimated at 1.31 (95 % CI: 0.76–1.98); 90 % of transmission occurred within 500m. Entomological investigations performed in 46 pools of mosquitoes revealed the presence of only one positive pool for DENV-1. Discussion: This report highlights the importance of synergic surveillance, including virological, entomological and public health measures to control the spread of arboviral infections.

Background: Large-scale diagnostic testing has been proven ineffective for prompt monitoring of the spread of COVID-19. Electronic resources may facilitate enhanced early detection of epidemics. Here, we aimed to retrospectively explore whether examining trends in the use of emergency and healthcare services and the Google search engine is useful in detecting Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus outbreaks early compared with the currently used swab-based surveillance system. Methods: Healthcare Utilization databases of the Italian region of Lombardy and the Google Trends website were used to measure the weekly utilization of emergency and healthcare services and determining the volume of Google searches from 2020 to 2022. Improved Farrington algorithm (IMPF) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart were both fitted to detect outliers in weekly searches of nine syndromic tracers. AND/OR Boolean operators were tested aimed for joint using tracers and models. Signals that occurred during periods labelled as free from epidemics were used to measure positive predictive values (PPV) and false negative values (FNV) in anticipating the epidemic wave. Results: Out of the 156 weeks of interest, 70 (45 %) were affected by epidemic waves. Overall, 54 syndromic signals were obtained from any one of the 7 healthcare or Google tracers, generating an outlier from both the EWMA and IMPF models. PPV values of 0.95, 1.00, 0.96 admitting a delay of 0, 1, and 2 weeks, respectively, between signal and epidemic wave. The values of FNP ranged from 0.19 to 0.21. Conclusions: High predictive power for anticipating COVID-19 epidemic waves, even two weeks ahead of the official reports, was obtained from electronic syndromic tracers of healthcare-seeking trends and Google search engine use. Following verification via a prospective approach, public health organizations are encouraged to take advantage of this free forecasting system to anticipate and effectively manage respiratory outbreaks.

Abstract Background Healthcare-Associated Infections (HAIs) are a global public health issue, representing a significant burden of disease that leads to prolonged hospital stays, inappropriate use of antimicrobial drugs, intricately linked to the development of resistant microorganisms, and higher costs for healthcare systems. The study aimed to measure the prevalence of HAIs, the use of antimicrobials, and assess healthcare- and patient-related risk factors, to help identify key intervention points for effectively reducing the burden of HAIs. Methods A total of 28 acute care hospitals in the Lombardy region, Northern Italy, participated in the third European Point Prevalence Survey (PPS-3) coordinated by ECDC for the surveillance of HAIs in acute care hospitals (Protocol 6.0). Results HAIs were detected in 1,259 (10.1%, 95% CI 9.6–10.7%) out of 12,412 enrolled patients. 1,385 HAIs were reported (1.1 HAIs per patient on average). The most common types of HAIs were bloodstream infections (262 cases, 18.9%), urinary tract infections (237, 17.1%), SARS-CoV-2 infections (236, 17.0%), pneumonia and lower respiratory tract infections (231, 16.7%), and surgical site infections (152, 11.0%). Excluding SARS-CoV-2 infections, the overall prevalence of HAIs was 8.4% (95% CI 7.9–8.9%). HAIs were significantly more frequent in patients hospitalized in smaller hospitals and in intensive care units (ICUs), among males, advanced age, severe clinical condition and in patients using invasive medical devices. Overall, 5,225 patients (42.1%, 95% CI 41.3–43.0%) received systemic antimicrobial therapy. According to the WHO’s AWaRe classification, the Access group accounted for 32.7% of total antibiotic consumption, while Watch and Reserve classes accounted for 57.0% and 5.9% respectively. From a microbiological perspective, investigations were conducted on only 64% of the HAIs, showing, however, a significant pattern of antibiotic resistance. Conclusions The PPS-3 in Lombardy, involving data collection on HAIs and antimicrobial use in acute care hospitals, highlights the crucial need for a structured framework serving both as a valuable benchmark for individual hospitals and as a foundation to effectively channel interventions to the most critical areas, prioritizing future regional health policies to reduce the burden of HAIs.

Wastewater-based epidemiology has emerged as a complementary tool for the monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic waves and for the circulation of viral variants. The selection, standardization, and dynamics of different SARS-CoV-2 RNA targets in wastewater requires further investigation. In the present study, 106 wastewater samples were collected over a 24-month period from the wastewater treatment plant of Sondrio, north Italy, and were analyzed for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA through the quantification of ORF1b, N1, and N3 gene targets via one-step real-time qPCR. In general, the three RNA targets demonstrated different performances and dynamics over the studied time period, underlying the usefulness of multiple viral targets in the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. During the first 12 months, the quantification of the selected SARS-CoV-2 viral targets also correlated with the reported clinical cases in the same geographical area; however, from the overall data analysis this did not appear to significantly anticipate the epidemic waves. In conclusion, this study further supports the use of wastewater surveillance as a real time indicator of the human circulation of SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, the use of multiple viral gene targets has been shown to improve the reliability of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in wastewater over time.

We report Listeria monocytogenes infection in a patient in Italy who was transfused with pooled platelet concentrate. Genomic analysis revealed that L. monocytogenes isolates from the donor blood unit, the transfused platelets, and the patient’s blood culture were genetically closely related, confirming transfusion transmission. Additional surveillance and secondary bacterial screening could improve transfusion safety.

Objectives: Following the alert of echovirus 11 (E-11) infection in neonates in EU/EEA Member States, we conducted an investigation of E-11 circulation by gathering data from community and hospital surveillance of enterovirus (EV) in northern Italy from 01 August 2021 to 30 June 2023. Methods: Virological results of EVs were obtained from the regional sentinel surveillance database for influenza-like illness (ILI) in outpatients, and from the laboratory database of ten hospitals for inpatients with either respiratory or neurological symptoms. Molecular characterization of EVs was performed by sequence analysis of the VP1 gene. Results: In our ILI series, the rate of EV-positive specimens showed an upward trend from the end of May 2023, culminating at the end of June, coinciding with an increase in EV-positive hospital cases. The E-11 identified belonged to the D5 genogroup and the majority (83%) were closely associated with the novel E-11 variant, first identified in severe neonatal infections in France since 2022. E-11 was identified sporadically in community cases until February 2023, when it was also found in hospitalized cases with a range of clinical manifestations. All E-11 cases were children, with 14 out of 24 cases identified through hospital surveillance. Of these cases, 60% were neonates, and 71% had severe clinical manifestations. Conclusion: Baseline epidemiological data collected since 2021 through EV laboratory-based surveillance have rapidly tracked the E-11 variant since November 2022, alongside its transmission during the late spring of 2023.

Background: Mpox virus (MPXV) has recently spread outside of sub-Saharan Africa. This large multicentre study was conducted in Lombardy, the most densely populated Italian region accounting for more than 40% of Italian cases. The present study aims to: i) evaluate the presence and the shedding duration of MPXV DNA in different body compartments correlating the MPXV viability with the time to onset of symptoms; ii) provide evidence of MPXV persistence in different body compartment as a source of infection and iii) characterize the MPXV evolution by whole genome sequencing (WGS) during the outbreak occurred in Italy. Material and methods: The study included 353 patients with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of MPXV infection screened in several clinical specimens in the period May 24th - September 1st, 2022. Viral isolation was attempted from different biological matrices and complete genome sequencing was performed for 61 MPXV strains. Results: MPXV DNA detection was more frequent in the skin (94.4%) with the longest median time of viral clearance (16 days). The actively-replicating virus in cell culture was obtained for 123/377 (32.6%) samples with a significant higher viral quantity on isolation positive samples (20 vs 31, p

Objectives: To compare the long-term cumulative risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with natural and vaccine-induced immunity. Methods: Retrospective population-based cohort study based on registry of COVID-19 vaccinations and SARS-CoV-2 infections among 9.1 million citizens of Lombardy, Italy, eligible for vaccination on 27th December 2020. Those who developed SARS-CoV-2 infection from 24th May to 14th September 2021, provided they did not yet receive the COVID-19 vaccine when infection was confirmed, and those who received the second mRNA vaccine dose, provided they had not yet developed the infection, were selected to be 1:1 matched for sex, age and index date. The latter corresponded to 90 days after confirmed infection or 14 days after vaccine administration. A control cohort including citizens who, on the index date, had neither developed infection nor received vaccination was also selected. Kaplan–Meier curves were used for comparing the cumulative incidence of new SARS-CoV-2 infection from the index date until 22nd June 2022. Results: Overall, 19,418 1:1:1 risk-sets were included. After 9 months of follow-up, the cumulative risk of new SARS-CoV-2 infection was 21.8%, 22.0%, and 25.9%, respectively, among exposed to natural immunity, vaccine-induced immunity and unexposed. Conclusions: Equivalent potential for protecting against new SARS-CoV-2 infection was observed.

Antimicrobial resistance is a significant threat to public health, with Italy experiencing substantial challenges in terms of AMR rate, surveillance system and activities to combat AMR. In response, the MICRO-BIO project was initiated as part of the National Plan to Combat Antibiotic Resistance by Region Lombardy health department. It was launched in 2018 with the aim of creating a surveillance tool by integrating data on bacterial isolates from microbiology laboratories. The participating laboratories were directly involved in reviewing and addressing discrepancies in the transmission data quality assessment. Despite the disruptions caused by COVID-19, 30 out of 33 laboratories in the Lombardy Region were successfully integrated by October 2023, with 1,201,000 microbiological data collected in the first nine months of 2023. In 2022 the analysis yielded 15,037 blood culture results from 20 labs passing validation. Data regarding the antimicrobial resistance profile of high-priority pathogens was analyzed at regional and single-hospital levels. The MICRO-BIO project represents a significant step toward strengthening AMR surveillance in a highly populated region. As a multi-disciplinary tool encompassing the fields of public health and IT (information technology), this tool has the potential to inform regional and local AMR epidemiology.

Comparing deaths averted by vaccination campaigns is a crucial public health endeavour. Excess all-cause deaths better reflect the impact of the pandemic than COVID-19 deaths. We used a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors model to regress daily all-cause deaths on annual trend, seasonality, and environmental temperature in three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche and Sicily) from 2015 to 2019. The model was used to forecast excess deaths during the vaccinal period (December 2020–October 2022). We used the prevented fraction to estimate excess deaths observed during the vaccinal campaigns, those which would have occurred without vaccination, and those averted by the campaigns. At the end of the vaccinal period, the Lombardy region proceeded with a more intensive COVID-19 vaccination campaign than other regions (on average, 1.82 doses per resident, versus 1.67 and 1.56 in Marche and Sicily, respectively). A higher prevented fraction of all-cause deaths was consistently found in Lombardy (65% avoided deaths, as opposed to 60% and 58% in Marche and Sicily). Nevertheless, because of a lower excess mortality rate found in Lombardy compared to Marche and Sicily (12, 24 and 23 per 10,000 person-years, respectively), a lower rate of averted deaths was observed (22 avoided deaths per 10,000 person-years, versus 36 and 32 in Marche and Sicily). In Lombardy, early and full implementation of adult COVID-19 vaccination was associated with the largest reduction in all-cause deaths compared to Marche and Sicily.

Abstract Introduction We aimed to assess harms (post-vaccine myocarditis and pericarditis) and benefits (preventing severe disease) of COVID-19 vaccination. Methods We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study. Using the integrated platform of the vaccination campaign of Lombardy Region (Italy), after the exclusion of 24,188 individuals not beneficiaries of the Regional Health Service, 9,184,146 citizens candidates to vaccine at December 27, 2020 were followed until November 30, 2021 (the loss to follow-up rate was 0.5%). From the date of administration of each vaccine dose to day 28 post-administration, three periods that covered exposure to the first, second, and third dose were defined. The benefit–risk profile of vaccines was performed by comparing the number needed to harm (NNH) and number needed to treat (NNT) by sex, age, and vaccine type. Results Incidence rates of myocarditis were 9.9 and 5.2 per million person-months during the exposure and no-exposure periods, respectively, and the incidence rates of pericarditis were 19.5 and 15.9 per million person-months, respectively. The risk of myocarditis was highest following exposure to the second dose of the Moderna vaccine (adjusted HR: 5.5, 95% CI: 3.7 to 8.1). Exposure to the Moderna vaccine was also associated with an increased risk of pericarditis (adjusted HR 2.2, 1.5 to 3.1). NNT was higher than NNH (9471 vs. 7213) for 16 to 19-year-old men who received the Moderna vaccine, while all other sex, age, and vaccine subgroups had a favourable harm-benefit profile. Conclusions Men 16 to 19 years of age has the highest rates of myocarditis within a few days after receiving the Moderna vaccines. The balance between harms and benefits was almost always in favour of vaccination.

We analyzed the first 255 PCR-confirmed cases of monkeypox in Italy in 2022. Preliminary estimates indicate mean incubation period of 9.1 (95% CI 6.5–10.9) days, mean generation time of 12.5 (95% CI 7.5–17.3) days, and reproduction number among men who have sex with men of 2.43 (95% CI 1.82–3.26).

Summary: Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospitalisation and mortality in young children globally. The social distancing measures implemented against COVID-19 in Lombardy (Italy) disrupted the typically seasonal RSV circulation during 2019–2021 and caused substantially more hospitalisations during 2021–2022. The primary aim of this study is to quantify the immunity gap-defined as the increased proportion of the population naïve to RSV infection following the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in Lombardy, which has been hypothesised to be a potential cause of the increased RSV burden in 2021–2022. Methods: We developed a catalytic model to reconstruct changes in the age-dependent susceptibility profile of the Lombardy population throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The model is calibrated to routinely collected hospitalisation, syndromic, and virological surveillance data and tested for alternative assumptions on age-dependencies in the risk of RSV infection throughout the pandemic. Findings: We estimate that the proportion of the Lombardy population naïve to RSV infection increased by 60.8% (95% CrI: 55.2–65.4%) during the COVID-19 pandemic: from 1.4% (95% CrI: 1.3–1.6%) in 2018–2019 to 2.3% (95% CrI: 2.2–2.5%) before the 2021–2022 season, corresponding to an immunity gap of 0.87% (95% CrI: 0.87–0.88%). We found evidence of heterogeneity in RSV transmission by age, suggesting that the COVID-19 restrictions had variable impact on the contact patterns and risk of RSV infection across ages. Interpretation: We estimate a substantial increase in the population-level susceptibility to RSV in Lombardy during 2019–2021, which contributed to an increase in primary RSV infections in 2021–2022. Funding: UK Medical Research Council (MRC), UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), EDCTP2 programme, European Union, Wellcome Trust, Royal Society, EU-MUR PNRR INF-ACT.

BackgroundThe impact of seasonal influenza vaccination (SIV) on mortality is still controversial; some studies have claimed that increasing vaccination coverage rates is beneficial, while others have found no significant association. This study aimed to construct a granular longitudinal dataset of local VCRs and assess their effect on pneumonia- and influenza-related (P&I) mortality among Italian adults aged ≥ 65 years.MethodsNUTS-3 (nomenclature of territorial units for statistics) level data on SIV coverage were collected via a survey of local data holders. Fixed- and random-effects panel regression modeling, when adjusted for potential confounders, was performed to assess the association between local SIV coverage rates and P&I mortality in older adults.ResultsA total of 1,144 local VCRs from 2003 to 2019 were ascertained. In the fully adjusted fixed-effects model, each 1% increase in vaccination coverage was associated (P < 0.001) with a 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3–0.9%) average over-time decrease in P&I mortality. With an annual average of 9,293 P&I deaths in Italy, this model suggested that 56 deaths could have been avoided each year by increasing SIV coverage by 1%. The random-effects model produced similar results. The base-case results were robust in a sensitivity analysis.ConclusionOver the last two decades, Italian jurisdictions with higher SIV uptake had, on average, fewer P&I deaths among older adults. Local policy-makers should implement effective strategies to increase SIV coverage in the Italian senior population.

IntroductionLarge-scale diagnostic testing has been proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019. Electronic resources may provide better insight into the early detection of epidemics. We aimed to retrospectively explore whether the Google search volume has been useful in detecting Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus outbreaks early compared to the swab-based surveillance system.MethodsThe Google Trends website was used by applying the research to three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche, and Sicily), covering 16 million Italian citizens. An autoregressive-moving-average model was fitted, and residual charts were plotted to detect outliers in weekly searches of five keywords. Signals that occurred during periods labelled as free from epidemics were used to measure Positive Predictive Values and False Negative Rates in anticipating the epidemic wave occurrence.ResultsSignals from “fever,” “cough,” and “sore throat” showed better performance than those from “loss of smell” and “loss of taste.” More than 80% of true epidemic waves were detected early by the occurrence of at least an outlier signal in Lombardy, although this implies a 20% false alarm signals. Performance was poorer for Sicily and Marche.ConclusionMonitoring the volume of Google searches can be a valuable tool for early detection of respiratory infectious disease outbreaks, particularly in areas with high access to home internet. The inclusion of web-based syndromic keywords is promising as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and perhaps other unknown infectious diseases in the future.

Abstract Background The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of several new variants, and few data are available on the impact of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 variants. We aimed to assess the association between natural (previous infection) and induced (partial or complete vaccination) exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the onset of new infection supported by the delta variant, and of comparing it with that supported by alpha. Methods We performed a test-negative case-control study, by linking population-based registries of confirmed diagnoses of infection with SARS-CoV-2, vaccinations against Covid-19 and healthcare utilization databases of the Italian Lombardy Region. Four hundred ninety-six persons who between 27 December 2020 and 16 July 2021 had an infection by the delta variant were 1:1 matched with citizens affected by alphavariant and 1:10 matched with persons who had a negative molecular test, according to gender, age and date of molecular ascertainment. We used a conditional logistic regression for estimating relative risk reduction of either variants associated with natural and/or induced immunization and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Previous infection was associated with 91% (95% CI 85% to 95%) reduced relative risk of reinfection, without evidence of significant differences between delta and alpha cases (p=0.547). Significant lower vaccinal protection against delta than alpha variant infection was observed with reduced relative risk associated with partial vaccination respectively of 29% (7% to 45%), and 62% (48% to 71%) (p=0.001), and with complete vaccination respectively of 75% (66% to 82%) and 90% (85% to 94%) (p=0.003). Conclusions Lower protection towards infections caused by the delta variant with respect to alpha variant was noticed, even after the completion of the vaccination cycle. This finding would support efforts to maximize both vaccine uptake with two doses and fulfilment with individual protection measures, especially as the delta variant is rampant worldwide presently.

Abstract Background Understanding the risk factors associated with hospital burden of COVID-19 is crucial for healthcare planning for any future waves of infection. Methods An observational cohort study is performed, using data on all PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Regione Lombardia, Italy, during the first wave of infection from February-June 2020. A multi-state modelling approach is used to simultaneously estimate risks of progression through hospital to final outcomes of either death or discharge, by pathway (via critical care or not) and the times to final events (lengths of stay). Logistic and time-to-event regressions are used to quantify the association of patient and population characteristics with the risks of hospital outcomes and lengths of stay respectively. Results Risks of severe outcomes such as ICU admission and mortality have decreased with month of admission (for example, the odds ratio of ICU admission in June vs March is 0.247 [0.120–0.508]) and increased with age (odds ratio of ICU admission in 45–65 vs 65 + age group is 0.286 [0.201–0.406]). Care home residents aged 65 + are associated with increased risk of hospital mortality and decreased risk of ICU admission. Being a healthcare worker appears to have a protective association with mortality risk (odds ratio of ICU mortality is 0.254 [0.143–0.453] relative to non-healthcare workers) and length of stay. Lengths of stay decrease with month of admission for survivors, but do not appear to vary with month for non-survivors. Conclusions Improvements in clinical knowledge, treatment, patient and hospital management and public health surveillance, together with the waning of the first wave after the first lockdown, are hypothesised to have contributed to the reduced risks and lengths of stay over time.

Introduction: In Lombardy, the influenza surveillance system relies on sentinel physicians that weekly report data on the number of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) and a part of them also collect nasopharyngeal samples for virologic analyses. This study aims at comparing the ILI incidence of 2019–2020 influenza season with the incidence of COVID-19 cases in order to better understand the current epidemic and to evaluate whether the implementation of ILI surveillance system could succeed in early detection and monitoring of COVID-19 diffusion. Methods: The distribution of ILI cases in the seasons 2017–2018, 2018–2019 and 2019–2020 was taken in consideration and the curve trends were compared and analyzed according to geographical areas, age groups and time differences. Results: The curve trends presented a similar pattern up to the 9th week; in fact, a reduction in the ILI incidence rate was observed in the 2017–2018 and 2018–2019 season but in the 2019–2020 an increase in the reported ILI emerged. The relation between the numbers reported by 2019–2020 ILI surveillance and those reported for COVID-19 is supported by the curve trends, the correspondence between age groups, the correspondence by geographical location, and also by the results of the nasopharyngeal swab tests performed. Discussion: The influenza surveillance system is an effective tool for early detection of COVID-19. It may provide timely and high-quality data evaluating the SARS-CoV-2 burden among population with ILI. Implementation of the system has to be prioritized in order to identify any future novel respiratory pathogen with pandemic potential.

Abstract Background A Covid-19 outbreak developed in Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna (Italy) at the end of February 2020. Fear of an imminent saturation of available ICU beds generated the notion that rationing of intensive care resources could have been necessary. Results In order to evaluate the impact of Covid-19 on the ICU capacity to manage critically ill patients, we performed a retrospective analysis of the first 2 weeks of the outbreak (February 24–March 8). Data were collected from regional registries and from a case report form sent to participating sites. ICU beds increased from 1545 to 1989 (28.7%), and patients receiving respiratory support outside the ICU increased from 4 (0.6%) to 260 (37.0%). Patients receiving respiratory support outside the ICU were significantly older [65 vs. 77 years], had more cerebrovascular (5.8 vs. 13.1%) and renal (5.3 vs. 10.0%) comorbidities and less obesity (31.4 vs. 15.5%) than patients admitted to the ICU. PaO2/FiO2 ratio, respiratory rate and arterial pH were higher [165 vs. 244; 20 vs. 24 breath/min; 7.40 vs. 7.46] and PaCO2 and base excess were lower [34 vs. 42 mmHg; 0.60 vs. 1.30] in patients receiving respiratory support outside the ICU than in patients admitted to the ICU, respectively. Conclusions Increase in ICU beds and use of out-of-ICU respiratory support allowed effective management of the first 14 days of the Covid-19 outbreak, avoiding resource rationing.

Summary: Background: Influenza is one of the most common respiratory viral infections worldwide. Numerous vaccines are used to prevent influenza. Their selection should be informed by the best available evidence. We aimed to estimate the comparative efficacy and safety of seasonal influenza vaccines in children, adults and the elderly. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA). We searched the Cochrane Library Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE and EMBASE databases, and websites of regulatory agencies, through December 15th, 2020. We included placebo- or no vaccination-controlled, and head-to-head randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Pairs of reviewers independently screened the studies, abstracted the data, and appraised the risk of bias in accordance to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. The primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed influenza. We also synthesized data for hospitalization, mortality, influenza-like illness (ILI), pneumonia or lower respiratory-tract disease, systemic and local adverse events (AEs). We estimated summary risk ratios (RR) using pairwise and NMA with random effects. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018091895. Findings: We identified 13,439 citations. A total of 231 RCTs were included after screening: 11 studies did not provide useful data for the analysis; 220 RCTs [100,677 children (

Background For people with symptomatic COVID-19, the relative risks of hospital admission, death without hospital admission and recovery without admission, and the times to those events, are not well understood. We describe how these quantities varied with individual characteristics, and through the first wave of the pandemic, in Milan, Italy.Methods A cohort study of 27 598 people with known COVID-19 symptom onset date in Milan, Italy, testing positive between February and June 2020 and followed up until 17 July 2020. The probabilities of different events, and the times to events, were estimated using a mixture multistate model.Results The risk of death without hospital admission was higher in March and April (for non-care home residents, 6%–8% compared with 2%–3% in other months) and substantially higher for care home residents (22%–29% in March). For all groups, the probabilities of hospitalisation decreased from February to June. The probabilities of hospitalisation also increased with age, and were higher for men, substantially lower for healthcare workers and care home residents, and higher for people with comorbidities. Times to hospitalisation and confirmed recovery also decreased throughout the first wave. Combining these results with our previously developed model for events following hospitalisation, the overall symptomatic case fatality risk was 15.8% (15.4%–16.2%).Conclusions The highest risks of death before hospital admission coincided with periods of severe burden on the healthcare system in Lombardy. Outcomes for care home residents were particularly poor. Outcomes improved as the first wave waned, community healthcare resources were reinforced and testing became more widely available.

Background: In the night of February 20, 2020, the first epidemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outside Asia was uncovered by the identification of its first patient in Lombardy region, Italy. In the following weeks, Lombardy experienced a sudden increase in the number of ascertained infections and strict measures were imposed to contain the epidemic spread. Methods: We analyzed official records of cases occurred in Lombardy to characterize the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the early phase of the outbreak. A line list of laboratory-confirmed cases was set up and later retrospectively consolidated, using standardized interviews to ascertained cases and their close contacts. We provide estimates of the serial interval, of the basic reproduction number, and of the temporal variation of the net reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2. Results: Epidemiological investigations detected over 500 cases (median age: 69, IQR: 57–78) before the first COVID-19 diagnosed patient (February 20, 2020), and suggested that SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in at least 222 out of 1506 (14.7%) municipalities with sustained transmission across all the Lombardy provinces. We estimated the mean serial interval to be 6.6 days (95% CrI, 0.7–19). Our estimates of the basic reproduction number range from 2.6 in Pavia (95% CI, 2.1–3.2) to 3.3 in Milan (95% CI, 2.9–3.8). A decreasing trend in the net reproduction number was observed following the detection of the first case. Conclusions: At the time of first case notification, COVID-19 was already widespread in the entire Lombardy region. This may explain the large number of critical cases experienced by this region in a very short timeframe. The slight decrease of the reproduction number observed in the early days after February 20, 2020 might be due to increased population awareness and early interventions implemented before the regional lockdown imposed on March 8, 2020.

Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quantify age-specific probabilities of transitions between stages defining the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection from 1965 SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals identified in Italy between March and April 2020 among contacts of confirmed cases. Infected contacts of cases were confirmed via RT-PCR tests as part of contact tracing activities or retrospectively via IgG serological tests and followed-up for symptoms and clinical outcomes. In addition, we provide estimates of time intervals between key events defining the clinical progression of cases as obtained from a larger sample, consisting of 95,371 infections ascertained between February and July 2020. We found that being older than 60 years of age was associated with a 39.9% (95%CI: 36.2–43.6%) likelihood of developing respiratory symptoms or fever ≥ 37.5 °C after SARS-CoV-2 infection; the 22.3% (95%CI: 19.3–25.6%) of the infections in this age group required hospital care and the 1% (95%CI: 0.4–2.1%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). The corresponding proportions in individuals younger than 60 years were estimated at 27.9% (95%CI: 25.4–30.4%), 8.8% (95%CI: 7.3–10.5%) and 0.4% (95%CI: 0.1–0.9%), respectively. The infection fatality ratio (IFR) ranged from 0.2% (95%CI: 0.0–0.6%) in individuals younger than 60 years to 12.3% (95%CI: 6.9–19.7%) for those aged 80 years or more; the case fatality ratio (CFR) in these two age classes was 0.6% (95%CI: 0.1–2%) and 19.2% (95%CI: 10.9–30.1%), respectively. The median length of stay in hospital was 10 (IQR: 3–21) days; the length of stay in ICU was 11 (IQR: 6–19) days. The obtained estimates provide insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 and could be instrumental to refine mathematical modeling work supporting public health decisions.

The quantification and molecular characterization of the AdV genome in urban wastewater samples (WWSs) collected weekly at a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in Milan from 1 January 2021 (week 2021-01) to 1 May 2022 (week 2022-17) were performed. The concentration of the AdV genome was graphically compared with the AdV positive rate observed in the respiratory/gastrointestinal specimens from individuals hospitalized with acute respiratory/gastrointestinal infections collected from one of the major hospitals in Milan in the same time series. An increase in the AdV circulation in WWSs was seen from November 2021, peaking in March 2022 and overlapped with an increase in the AdV positive rate in respiratory/fecal samples from individuals hospitalized with acute respiratory/gastrointestinal infections. The molecular characterization of the hexon hypervariable region of loop 1 of AdV revealed the presence of the species F type 41 in WWSs collected from February 2022 to April 2022. The wastewater surveillance of AdV can provide crucial epidemiological characteristics regarding AdV, particularly where no clinical surveillance is ongoing. The increase in the AdV circulation in Milan both in WWSs and clinical samples temporally overlapped with the outbreak of severe acute pediatric hepatitis observed in Europe and needs to be better investigated.

With several human cases reported annually since 2008 and the unapparent risk of infection of blood donors, the West Nile virus (WNV) is emerging as an important health issue in Europe. Italy, as well as other European countries, experienced a recrudescence of the virus circulation in 2018, which led to an increased number of human cases. An integrated surveillance plan was activated in the Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy regions (Northern Italy) since 2008 in order to monitor the intensity and timing of WNV circulation. A fundamental part of this plan consists in entomological surveillance. In 2018, the surveillance plan made it possible to collect 385,293 mosquitoes in 163 stations in the two Regions. In total 269,147 Culex mosquitoes were grouped into 2,337 pools and tested for WNV, which was detected in 232 pools. Circulation started in the central part of the Emilia-Romagna region in the middle of June, about one month before the previous seasons. Circulation suddenly expanded to the rest of the region and reached the Lombardy region in the middle of July. WNV circulated more intensively in the eastern part of the surveyed area, as confirmed by the highest number of human cases. A relationship between the number of mosquitoes collected and the virus incidence emerged, but the data obtained highlighted that the probability of detecting the virus in a given site was less than expected with a higher number of collected mosquitoes. A significant relationship was observed between the temperature recorded one week before the sampling and the number of collected mosquitoes, as well as between the estimated number of WNV-positive mosquitoes and the temperature recorded two weeks before the sampling. The two weeks delay in the influence of temperature on the positive mosquitoes is in line with the time of the virus extrinsic incubation in the mosquito. This finding confirms that temperature is one of the principal drivers in WNV mosquito infection. The surveillance system demonstrated the ability to detect the virus circulation early, particularly in areas where circulation was more intense. This allowed evaluating the effect of mosquito abundance and weather factors on virus circulation.

For diagnosing SARS-CoV-2 infection and for monitoring its spread, the implementation of external quality assessment (EQA) schemes is mandatory to assess and ensure a standard quality according to national and international guidelines. Here, we present the results of the 2020, 2021, 2022 EQA schemes in Lombardy region for assessing the quality of the diagnostic laboratories involved in SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. In the framework of the Quality Assurance Programs (QAPs), the routinely EQA schemes are managed by the regional reference centre for diagnostic laboratories quality (RRC-EQA) of the Lombardy region and are carried out by all the diagnostic laboratories. Three EQA programs were organized: (1) EQA of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid detection; (2) EQA of anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibody testing; (3) EQA of SARS-CoV-2 direct antigens detection. The percentage of concordance of 1938 molecular tests carried out within the SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid detection EQA was 97.7%. The overall concordance of 1875 tests carried out within the anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody EQA was 93.9% (79.6% for IgM). The overall concordance of 1495 tests carried out within the SARS-CoV-2 direct antigens detection EQA was 85% and it was negatively impacted by the results obtained by the analysis of weak positive samples. In conclusion, the EQA schemes for assessing the accuracy of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis in the Lombardy region highlighted a suitable reproducibility and reliability of diagnostic assays, despite the heterogeneous landscape of SARS-CoV-2 tests and methods. Laboratory testing based on the detection of viral RNA in respiratory samples can be considered the gold standard for SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis.

We aimed to identify individual features associated with increased risk of post-vaccine SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 illness. We performed a nested case–control study based on 5,350,295 citizens from Lombardy, Italy, aged ≥ 12 years who received a complete anti-COVID-19 vaccination from 17 January 2021 to 31 July 2021, and followed from 14 days after vaccine completion to 11 November 2021. Overall, 17,996 infections and 3023 severe illness cases occurred. For each case, controls were 1:1 (infection cases) or 1:10 (severe illness cases) matched for municipality of residence and date of vaccination completion. The association between selected predictors (sex, age, previous occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, type of vaccine received, number of previous contacts with the Regional Health Service (RHS), and the presence of 59 diseases) and outcomes was assessed by using multivariable conditional logistic regression models. Sex, age, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, type of vaccine and number of contacts with the RHS were associated with the risk of infection and severe illness. Moreover, higher odds of infection and severe illness were significantly associated with 14 and 34 diseases, respectively, among those investigated. These results can be helpful to clinicians and policy makers for prioritizing interventions.

Background. Limited evidence exists on the balance between the benefits and harms of the COVID-19 vaccines. The aim of this study is to compare the benefits and safety of mRNA-based (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna) and adenovirus-vectored (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in subpopulations defined by age and sex. Methods. All citizens who are newly vaccinated from 27 December 2020 to 3 May 2021 are matched to unvaccinated controls according to age, sex, and vaccination date. Study outcomes include the events that are expected to be avoided by vaccination (i.e., hospitalization and death from COVID-19) and those that might be increased after vaccine inoculation (i.e., venous thromboembolism). The incidence rate ratios (IRR) of vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens are separately estimated within strata of sex, age category and vaccine type. When suitable, number needed to treat (NNT) and number needed to harm (NNH) are calculated to evaluate the balance between the benefits and harm of vaccines within each sex and age category. Results. In total, 2,351,883 citizens are included because they received at least one dose of vaccine (755,557 Oxford-AstraZeneca and 1,596,326 Pfizer/Moderna). A reduced incidence of COVID-19-related outcomes is observed with a lowered incidence rate ranging from 55% to 89% and NNT values ranging from 296 to 3977. Evidence of an augmented incidence of harm-related outcomes is observed only for women aged Conclusions. A favourable balance between benefits and harms is observed in the current study, even among younger women who received Oxford-AstraZeneca.

This paper outlines the role of Lombardy’s regional influenza reference laboratory (Northern Italy) in the surveillance of influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) in monitoring SARS-CoV-2 circulation by analyzing 631 consecutive nasopharyngeal swabs (NPSs) collected from ILI outpatients by sentinel physicians during the 2019–2020 season. The samples were tested by specific real-time RT-PCRs targeting SARS-CoV-2, influenza viruses, and RSVs. Results: Of these NPSs, 31% tested positive for influenza viruses, 10% for SARS-CoV-2, and 7% for RSV. No coinfections were detected. Influenza viruses and RSVs circulated throughout the surveillance period until the end of February (week 9-2020), when they suddenly ceased to circulate seven weeks earlier than during the previous five influenza seasons. After the first detection of SARS-CoV-2 in our ILI outpatients at the beginning of March (week 10-2020), SARS-CoV-2 remained the only virus identified throughout the surveillance period. Patients ≥ 65 years had a 3.2-fold greater risk of being infected with SARS-CoV-2, while school-age children (5–14 years) and children < 5 years proved to be the age groups most at risk of contracting influenza viruses and RSV, respectively. Our experience demonstrates that laboratory-based ILI surveillance networks are essential for identifying SARS-CoV-2 cases that would otherwise remain undetected, in order to stop their spread within our communities.