Search

Central Europe has experienced a sequence of unprecedented summer droughts since 2015, which had considerable effects on the functioning and productivity of natural and agricultural systems. Placing these recent extremes in a long-term context of natural climate variability is, however, constrained by the limited length of observational records. Here, we use tree-ring stable oxygen and carbon isotopes to develop annually resolved reconstructions of growing season temperature and summer moisture variability for central Europe during the past 2,000 years. Both records are independently interpolated across the southern Czech Republic and northeastern Austria to produce explicit estimates of the optimum agroclimatic zones, based on modern references of climatic forcing. Historical documentation of agricultural productivity and climate variability since 1090 CE provides strong quantitative verification of our new reconstructions. Our isotope records not only contain clear expressions of the Medieval (920-1000 CE) and Renaissance (early 16th century) droughts, but also the relative influence of temperature and moisture on hydroclimatic conditions during the first millennium (including previously reported pluvials during the early 3rd, 5th, and 7th centuries CE). We conclude, Czech agricultural production has experienced significant extremes over the past 2,000 years, which includes periods for which there are no modern analogues.

In the Czech Republic, soil moisture content during the growing season has been decreasing over the past six decades, and drought events have become significantly more frequent. In 2003, 2015, 2018 and 2019, drought affected almost the entire country, with droughts in 2000, 2004, 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2017 having smaller extents but still severe intensities in some regions. The current methods of visiting cadastral areas (approximately 13,000) to allocate compensation funds for the crop yield losses caused by drought or aggregating the losses to district areas (approximately 1000 km2) based on proxy data are both inappropriate. The former due to the required time and resources, the later due to low resolution, which leads to many falsely negative and falsely positive results. Therefore, the study presents a new method to combine ground survey, remotely sensed and model data for determining crop yield losses. The study shows that it is possible to estimate them at the cadastral area level in the Czech Republic and attribute those losses to drought. This can be done with remotely sensed vegetation, water stress and soil moisture conditions with modeled soil moisture anomalies coupled with near-real-time feedback from reporters and with crop status surveys. The newly developed approach allowed the achievement of a proportion of falsely positive errors of less than 10% (e.g., oat 2%, 8%; spring barley 4%, 3%; sugar beets 2%, 21%; and winter wheat 2%, 6% in years 2017, resp. 2018) and allowed for cutting the loss assessment time from eight months in 2017 to eight weeks in 2018.

The most reliable method for monitoring plant phenology and changes in vegetation development is ground observation (in-situ). However, this method is difficult to implement on a larger spatial scale. For that reason, remote sensing data have begun to be used to quantify vegetation phenology in recent decades. Information about phenology is derived from remote sensing data using ie. phenological metrics. In this study, we used 3 base metrics - the start of the growing season (SOS), the end of the growing season (EOS), and the length of the growing season (LGS) for evaluating changes in the phenology of four land covers (coniferous forest, broadleaf forest, field, and grassland) in the European region (approx. 30 countries). For their determination, Enhanced Vegetation Index2 (EVI2) was used based on images from The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Satellite images were obtained at a spatial resolution of 5 x 5 km in the time period from 2000 to 2022. For four land covers within the 22-year period, it was evaluated that the SOS significantly shifted to an earlier date in about half of the evaluated states. The EOS significantly shifted to a later date in almost all evaluated states. Based on these results, we evaluated the whole length of the growing season and found a significant shift to a later date also in almost all evaluated states.Acknowledgement: This work was supported by an individual IGA project - Determination of vegetation time and its spatiotemporal variability using remote sensing of the Earth (AF-IGA2022-IP-067) and by SustES project – Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), which provided essential data and software access.

Vegetation phenology is one of the key indicators for assessing inter annual changes of ecosystems while crop phenology has crucial and practical importance for precise timing of farming practices of today’s smart agriculture. The aim of this study is to develop and implement a procedure for filtering and processing daily satellite signals from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellites for the operational derivation of vegetation indices and land surface phenology (LSP) metrics. Second, this work investigates and selects precisely adjusted parameters for the calculation of a specific LSP metric – the SOS (start of the season). The SOS obtained from the satellite data was compared with available in situ ground measurements at 80 sites with records from 2000-2012 across the Czech Republic. The coefficients of determination, R2, for the land surface phenology based on Earth observation and traditional ground phenology indicated differences between the two methods. However, the average R2 at all sites for agricultural land was 0.31 for winter wheat onset of leaf sheath elongation; the R2 exceeded 0.5 at 21 sites and was approximately 0.7 at some sites. The developed procedure proved suitable for operational monitoring of actual crop conditions and other influence factors that are important for drought monitoring.

The paper shows a large-scale shift in agroclimatic zones in the territory of the Czech Republic (CR) between 1961 and 2019. The method used for agroclimatic zoning took advantage of high-resolution (0.5 km × 0.5 km) daily climate data collected from 268 climatological and 787 rain-gauge stations. The climate information was combined with soil and terrain data at the same resolution. The set of seven agroclimatic indicators allowed us to estimate rates of changes in agroclimatic conditions over the 1961–2019 period, including changes in the air temperature regime, global radiation, drought, frost risks and snow cover occurrence. These indicators are relevant for all main crops and agroclimatic zoning and account for local soil and slope conditions. The study clearly highlights major shifts in the type and extent of agroclimatic zones between 1961–2000 and 2000–2019, which led to the occurrence of entirely new combinations of agroclimatic indicators.

Grasslands play a significant role in livestock fodder production and thus, contribute to food security worldwide while providing numerous additional ecosystem services. However, how agroclimatic conditions and adverse weather events relevant for grasslands will change across the European grassland areas has not been examined to date. Using a single reference setup for soil and management over 476 European sites defined by climate stations, we show the probability of eight selected adverse weather events with the potential to significantly affect grassland productivity under climate change and how these events vary regionally across Europe. Changes in these eight key agroclimatic indicators create markedly specific spatial patterns. We found that by 2050, the exposure of the south and west European grasslands to heat and drought may double in comparison with today and that the area with frequent occurrences of heat and drought will expand northwards. However, across Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic countries to southern Finland and Sweden, the likelihood of these events is likely to decrease. While changing cultivars and management strategies are unavoidable, shifting grassland production to other regions to reduce the risk may not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key grassland-growing areas increases even further. Moreover, we found marked changes in the overall thermal and water regimes across European regions. The effect of adverse weather events in the future could be different in other regions of the world compared to regions in Europe, emphasizing the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major grassland producing regions. To mitigate the impact of climate change, new ways of maintaining grassland productivity need to be developed. These methods include more efficient selection of species mixtures for specific regions, including increased use of legumes and forbs; incorporation of new genetic resources, including the development of hybrid cultivars, such as Festulolium hybrids; and incorporation of state-of-the-art technologies in breeding programs and new grazing management.

Drought directly and indirectly affects human society in a number of ways. In many regions of the world climate change will exasperate the effects of droughts, affect national economies more intensely. The main aim of this article was to catalogue and analyze the drought impacts in the 11 Central and South Eastern European states located in the Danube river basin. The identification of dry episodes was based on information from publicly available sources, namely, newspaper and journal articles that reported drought impacts. Information on drought impact occurrences was classified into one of five defined categories in which the drought impact report was most clearly manifested (i.e., agriculture, forestry, soil systems, wildfires and hydrology). In terms of the spatial distribution of drought impacts, individual recorded events were analyzed at the level of EU NUTS regions (or their equivalent in non-EU countries). The analysis highlights country-specific vulnerability to drought. Furthermore, gradual increases in drought events and the number of reported impacts were identified, which was particularly evident in the agricultural sector.

This study quantified the crop water consumption, crop-specific irrigation requirements, and availability of water resources to catchments under climate change in the Czech Republic (CZ). Within the SoilClim model and BILAN-WATERES hydrological water balance modeling process, we tried to answer the question of whether there are at least theoretical water resources in the individual catchments of the CZ that could cover possible higher demands for irrigation. An ensemble of five global climate models under the moderate representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) from the EURO-CORDEX initiative was chosen to project the future water use indicators. The irrigation water requirement indicators for the growing season (GS) of vineyards, hop gardens, orchards, vegetables, and fodder crops were calculated in 1143 catchments for two periods, 2031–2050 (Sc1) and 2061–2080 (Sc2), compared to the observed period 1961–2020 (Obs). To project irrigation scenarios in agricultural water management, the following water use indicators were quantified: relative soil moisture at 0–40 cm (AWR1) and 0–100 cm (AWR), crop water balance (Rain-ETa), irrigation water requirement (Irrig), and the ratio of actual and reference evapotranspiration (ETratio). To assess areas with a critically low water supply and quantify the frequency of water deficit during the GS of each crop, we calculated the number of days with extreme values of water use indicators. Quantification of the extreme irrigation characteristics reflected the highest depletion of soil moisture and the highest water demands, i.e., when the assessed indicators reached the 25th percentiles. For highly marketable vegetables, the largest deficit in Rain-ETa during the GS for Sc1 was projected. If current vegetable growing areas and cropping systems remain unchanged, Irrig will increase by 10.2% by the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5. Although current potato planting areas have soils with a high available water capacity, they will become controlled by the water deficit over the next few decades. The accumulated vineyard water required suggests that 15% and 25% of irrigation water will be lost by evaporation from the soil surface during the 2030s and 2080s, respectively. However, changes in future hopyard irrigation extent and amounts may have important implications in largely cropped irrigation hotspots. In the main traditional hop region for the 2030s, we project a 25% depletion of soil moisture and an increase of ETratio

The occurrence of major wildfires in countries such as Portugal, Italy and Spain (2017) and Sweden (2018) indicated that wildfires pose a risk across Europe. While Central Europe has not been at the center of such events, observed climate data and climate projections suggest a tendency toward more years with wet and warm winters and dry and hot summers as well as fuel accumulation, leading to more hazardous conditions. Although some existing studies analyzed the differences in wildfire occurrence in this territory based on terrain, soil or vegetation characteristics, the effects of climate change have not been properly appraised. To fill this knowledge gap, we used and tested an ensemble of nine fuel aridity metrics, including three dedicated fire danger rating indices, and evaluated their level of agreement with actual fire occurrence, their ability to explain the interannual variability in wildfire frequency, and their temporal trends. The analysis covered the entire territory of the Czech Republic at 500 m spatial resolution. Two periods were included based on observed (1956–2015) and projected (2020–2100) meteorological data using ensembles of five regional climate models (RCMs) and five global circulation models (GCMs) based on Euro-CORDEX and CMIP5 datasets. For the future, we considered Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. Our results showed that since 1956, most of the Czech territory has exhibited an increasing frequency of fire weather days (i.e., days with highly conducive wildfire conditions) and an increasing area affected by weather conducive to wildfire occurrence, with the trends accelerating after 2000. The annual variation in the fuel aridity levels (derived solely from meteorological data) explained more than 2/3 of the reported wildfire variability during 1991–2015 over the Czech Republic. The future projections based on the RCM or GCM ensembles indicated a significant increase in fuel aridity and an increase in the area under fire-conducive conditions. Recommendations derived from such robust results are provided for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.

Indicators based on evapotranspiration (ET) provide useful information about surface water status, response of vegetation to drought stress, and potential growth limitations. The capability of ET-based indicators, including actual ET and the evaporative stress index (ESI), to predict crop yields of spring barley and winter wheat was analyzed for 33 districts of the Czech Republic. In this study, the ET-based indicators were computed using two different approaches: (i) a prognostic model, SoilClim, which computes the water balance based on ground weather observations and information about soil and land cover; (ii) the diagnostic Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model based primarily on remotely sensed land surface temperature data. The capability of both sets of indicators to predict yields of spring barley and winter wheat was tested using artificial neural networks (ANNs) applied to the adjusting number and timeframe of inputs during the growing season. Yield predictions based on ANNs were computed for both crops for all districts together, as well as for individual districts. The root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) between observed and predicted yields varied with date within the growing season and with the number of ANN inputs used for yield prediction. The period with the highest predictive capability started from early-June to mid-June. This optimal period for yield prediction was identifiable already at the lower number of ANN inputs, nevertheless, the accuracy of the prediction improved as more inputs were included within ANNs.The RMSE values for individual districts varied between 0.4 and 0.7 t ha–1 while R2 reached values of 0.5–0.8 during the optimal period. Results of the study demonstrated that ET-based indicators can be used for yield prediction in real time during the growing season and therefore have great potential for decision making at regional and district levels.

Agricultural drought causes serious yield losses for rainfed crops (including C4 crops) and is a cause of higher costs incurred by irrigation use. Drought episodes have been more frequent in Central Europe in recent years and have caused problems in terms of crop and livestock production due to a lack of available feed. The main aim of this study is to examine 16 water availability indicators (suitable for the evaluation of agricultural drought) to help explain maize silage yields. A parallel aim is to determine the period during which current maize hybrids for silage are the most vulnerable to water availability shortages. These aims reflect a current need for accurate drought impact assessment methods that can be applied as an early warning system or as part of a decision making protocol. For the purposes of this study, data from rainfed silage maize field experiments conducted between 2011 and 2015 in 4 locations (throughout the Czech Republic) were used. Relatively high correlations were found using precipitation totals for July alone, as this simple indicator explained 64% of the observed variability in the average silage yields of maize. Overall, the highest R2 (coefficient of determination) of 0.77 was obtained when the sum of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) for May to August was applied as an independent variable. This indicator also gave the most consistent response for all of the individually assessed months. The lowest ETa totals from May to August occurred during an extremely dry year (2015). The significance of this drought episode was exacerbated by its spatial extent and severe impacts on regional maize silage yields throughout the entire Czech Republic. The selection of hybrids according to FAO numbers has not been proven (based on included data) to serve as an adequate adaptation measure for severe episodes of drought, although higher FAO values should provide slightly higher yields in such cases. The recommendation for farmers is not to rely on one hybrid alone, but instead use hybrids with different FAO values for a given year.

The risk of severe water scarcity events simultaneously affecting key wheat-producing areas doubles despite CO2 mitigation efforts., Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.

An increase in drought frequency, duration and severity is expected for the Central European region as a direct consequence of climate change. This will have profound effects on a number of key sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, energy production and tourism) and also affect water resources, biodiversity and the landscape as a whole. However, global circulation models significantly differ in their projections for Central Europe with respect to the magnitude and timing of these changes. Therefore, analysis of changes in drought characteristics during the last 54 yr in relation to prevailing climate trends might significantly enhance our understanding of present and future drought risks. This study is based on a set of drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Palmer Zindex (Z-index) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), in their most advanced formulations. The time series of the drought indices were calculated for 411 climatological stations across Austria (excluding the Alps), the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Up to 45% of the evaluated stations (depending on the index) became significantly drier during the 1961-2014 period except for areas in the west and north of the studied region. In addition to identifying the regions with the most pronounced drying trends, a drying trend consistency across the station network of 3 independent national weather services was shown. The main driver behind this development was an increase in the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, driven by higher temperatures and global radiation with limited changes in precipitation totals. The observed drying trends were most pronounced during the April-September period and in lower elevations. Conversely, the majority of stations above 1000 m exhibited a significant wetting trend for both the summer and winter (October-March) half-years.

In recent years, two drought monitoring systems have been developed in the Czech Republic based on the SoilClim and AVISO soil moisture models. The former is run by Mendel University and Global Change Research Institute (CAS), while the latter, by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. SoilClim is based more on real soil properties and aimed primarily at agriculture, while AVISO complements the system with more theoretical presumptions about soil, showing, rather, climatological potential. Both soil moisture models were complemented by forecasts on a daily basis, taking meteorological inputs from NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models and thus giving short- to mid-range outlooks up to 9 days ahead. Validation of the soil moisture and drought intensity prediction was performed and is presented in this article showing its prediction reliability and potential. In the analysis, we focus mainly on the past year, 2017. The tool has strong predictive power for soil moisture and drought intensity so it is suitable for farmers who need to make decisions about irrigation and production activities. The presented system is fully functional and can be applied in the coming years.

Central Europe is generally not considered a drought-prone region compared with, for example, the Mediterranean. However, Central Europe, including the Czech Republic, recently experienced a series of drought events with substantial impacts, especially on crop production. Because agriculture systems, and vegetation in general, have adapted to evenly distributed precipitation, the region is susceptible to even short-term droughts. The recent drought events may be the result of multi-decadal climate variability or a more general trend, with some studies showing a link to a more frequent occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns that are conducive to drought. This study introduces an innovation to the standard methodological approaches in evaluating drought climatology by analysing soil moisture conditions over more than 50 years. This approach relies on state-of-the-art observed weather data and state-of-the-art soil moisture model data, and focuses on the dynamic simulation of soil moisture content with high temporal (daily) and spatial (500 m) resolution in a diverse landscape. Statistically significant trends of decreasing soil moisture content were found, notably during May and June between 1961 and 2012. In contrast, trends towards higher soil moisture content were noted during the October-March time period. When the periods of 2001-2012 and 1961-1980 were compared, the probability of drought between April and June was found to increase by 50%. This indicates a loading of the climate dice' towards drier conditions. The probability of extreme drought events has also been found to increase. These results support concerns about the potentially increased severity of drought events in Central Europe under projected climate change.

The weather conditions from August 2011 to May 2012 produced an extreme drought in the eastern Czech Republic (Moravia), whereas the patterns were nearly normal in its western region (Bohemia). The Southern and Central Moravia regions, which represent the most important agricultural areas, were most affected by the drought. The precipitation totals for the studied period were 50–70% of the long-term mean, which was calculated for 1961–2000. In autumn 2011, the total precipitation accounted for 10–30% of the long-term mean for most of Moravia, increasing to 30–50% in spring 2012. Moreover, 7.5% of the Czech Republic experienced a 100-year drought; 20% of the country experienced a 20-year drought. According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the 2012 drought was classified as the worst in the past 130 years. The drought patterns were related to the prevailing high-pressure systems over Central Europe and the occurrence of weather types with different precipitation amounts in Bohemia and Moravia. The most substantial drought effects occurred in the agricultural sector. A decrease in cereal yields was observed in the analysed production areas in Moravia, which was unprecedented in the past 52 years. Moreover, winter crops were affected more than spring crops. An increased risk of fire occurred due to the drought conditions; the largest forest fire in the past 15 years was recorded during this period. Furthermore, signs of hydrological drought were also reported in rivers. The 2011–2012 drought was compared with the significant droughts in 2000, 2003 and 2007. Austria and Slovakia, which neighbour the Czech Republic, experienced a similar drought. Global circulation model sensitivity experiments appear to indicate that droughts similar to this episode may be occurring at a recurrence interval of 20 years by the 2050s.

Soil moisture dynamics and their temporal trends in the Czech Republic are forced by various drivers. The methodology of applying remotely sensed data with both high temporal and spatial resolutions provides detailed insight and objective quantification of the causes of changes in soil moisture patterns. Our analysis of temporal trends indicates that shifts in drought severity between 1961 and 2012 (especially in the April, May, and June period, which displayed a 50% increase in drought probability between 1961-1980 and 2001-2012) are alarming. We found that increased global radiation and air temperature together with decreased relative humidity (all statistically significant at the 0.05 level) led to increases in the reference evapotranspiration in all months of the growing season; this trend was particularly evident in April, May, and August, when more than 80% of the territory displayed an increased demand for soil water. This finding was shown to be consistent with the measured pan evaporation (1968-2012) that was characterized by increasing trends, particularly during the April-June period. These changes, in combination with the earlier end of snow cover and the earlier start of growing season (up to 20days in some regions), led to an increased actual evapotranspiration at the start of growing season that tends to deplete the soil moisture earlier, leaving the soil more exposed to the impacts of rainfall variability. These results support concerns related to the potentially increased severity of drought events in Central Europe. The reported trend patterns are of particular importance with respect to the expected climate change, given the robustness and consistency of the trends shown and the fact that they can be aligned with the existing climate model projections.

BACKGROUND This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change on the ranges of crop pest species in Europe. The organisms included in the study were species from the family Tortricidae (Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana) and the family Pyralidae (Ostrinia nubilalis), Chrysomelidae beetles (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus) and species from the family Aphididae (Ropalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae). Climate conditions in the year 2055 were simulated using a subset of five representative global circulation models. Model simulations using these climate change scenarios showed significant shifts in the climatic niches of the species in this study. RESULTS For Central Europe, the models predicted a shift in the ranges of pest species to higher altitudes and increases in the number of generations (NG) of the pests. In contrast, in the southern regions of Europe, the NG is likely to decrease owing to insufficient humidity. The ranges of species are likely to shift to the north. CONCLUSION Based on the ensemble-scenario mean for 2055, a climate-driven northward shift of between 3° N (O. nubilalis) and 11° N (L. botrana) is expected. The areas that are most sensitive to experiencing a significant increase in climate suitability for future pest persistence were identified. These areas include Central Europe, the higher altitudes of the Alps and Carpathians and areas above 55° N. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry

The present study yields detail validation of the pest occurrence models under current climate in wide European domain. Study organisms involve Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana, Ostrinia nubilalis, Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus, Rhopalosiphum padi, and Sitobion avenae. Method used in this study belongs to the category climate matching (CLIMEX model) allowing the estimation of areas climatically favourable for species persistence based on the climatic parameters characterising the species development. In the process of model validation parameters were iteratively tested and altered to truly describe the pest presence. The modelled pests presence was verified by comparison of the observed pests occurrence with the number of generations in given modelled area. The notable component of the model parameterization was the sensitivity analyses testing the reaction of species development on changing meteorological items. Parameterization of the factors causing distribution patterns of study species was successful and modelled potential distributions of species correspond well to known core distribution areas for all of these species. This validation study is intended as an initial for forthcoming studies focused on the estimation of geographical shifts of selected pests in the conditions of climate change within the Europe.

SUMMARYThe present study investigated the historical occurrence of the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis), the European grape vine moth (Lobesia botrana) and the Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) in southern Moravia and northern Austria from 1803–2008 by using climate and pest models. The pest model used, CLIMEX, indicates areas that are climatically favourable for the pest's development and long-term survival, considering the climatic parameters, especially daily air temperature, as determining factors for pest development. For model input parameters, two sets of meteorological data were prepared: (i) a generated meteorological series for 1803–2008 and (ii) a measured reference meteorological series for 1976–2008. In addition to estimating the historical climatic suitability for the persistence of a given pest, a second aim of the present study was to specify the core of the climatic niche during the continued presence of the pest and evaluate the applicability of the meteorological data generated for climate, based on pest mapping. This evaluation resulted in a partial overestimation of pest occurrence for L. botrana when using the generated meteorological data set. This species, native to warmer areas, has proved to be a sensitive indicator of increased temperatures.

This study aims to evaluate soil climate quantitatively under present and projected climatic conditions across Central Europe (12.1°–18.9° E and 46.8°–51.1° N) and the U.S. Central Plains (90°–104° W and 37°–49° N), with a special focus on soil temperature, hydric regime, drought risk and potential productivity (assessed as a period suitable for crop growth). The analysis was completed for the baselines (1961–1990 for Europe and 1985–2005 for the U.S.) and time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 based on the outputs of three global circulation models using two levels of climate sensitivity. The results indicate that the soil climate (soil temperature and hydric soil regimes) will change dramatically in both regions, with significant consequences for soil genesis. However, the predicted changes of the pathways are very uncertain because of the range of future climate systems predicted by climate models. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that the risk of unfavourable dry years will increase, resulting in greater risk of soil erosion and lower productivity. The projected increase in the variability of dry and wet events combined with the uncertainty (particularly in the U.S.) poses a challenge for selecting the most appropriate adaptation strategies and for setting adequate policies. The results also suggest that the soil resources are likely be under increased pressure from changes in climate.

This study focuses on the changes in the yield stability of winter wheat and spring barley over the past 140 years and changes in the weather–yield relationships. The study area is located in the Czech Republic in eastern Central Europe between 48°37′–49°30′N and 15°29′–17°55′E and includes 4900 km2 of arable land within eight districts for which yield data were collected for the years 1869–1913 and 1961–2007. The cropping systems in the region are dominated by rain-fed production of winter wheat, spring barley and winter rape. The yields for winter wheat and spring barley have increased by a factor of 2–3 since the late 19th century, whereas the temperature and precipitation patterns showed trends toward warmer and drier conditions. There was a considerable increase in the inter-annual variability of the absolute yields in the districts. When the variability was evaluated in relative terms (i.e., compared with the yield level), it showed no change or insignificant increases in the warmest and driest regions. The study also found that the sensitivity to inter-seasonal temperature increase was much more pronounced during 1961–2007 than at the end of the 19th century and that an increase of the mean temperature by 1 °C led to yield decreases of up to 11% for winter wheat and up to 10% for spring barley. In contrast, the same temperature increase during the 1869–1913 period would have caused yield decreases of up to 8% and 5%, respectively. In the 1961–2007 period, the negative relationship between the temperature and yields of barley (wheat) was highly significant in seven (eight) of eight districts compared with only four (five) with a much weaker correlation in 1869–1913. During the early period, drier conditions had very small negative or even slightly positive effects on yields, whereas at the end of the 20th century, the May and June drought became a factor that explained a considerable proportion of the yield variability. This was the case especially for spring barley, which is more vulnerable to droughts than is winter wheat. The negative effects of increasing temperature and drought on grain yield were most pronounced in the districts that are currently the warmest and driest. The increasing vulnerability of wheat and barley production to increasing temperatures and droughts over time should be addressed by plant breeders, as there are relatively few adaptation options available to farmers except switching to other crops, which cannot fully substitute for wheat and barley. This study focuses on the changes in the yield stability of winter wheat and spring barley over the past 140 years and changes in the weather–yield relationships. The study area is located in the Czech Republic in eastern Central Europe between 48°37′–49°30′N and 15°29′–17°55′E and includes 4900 km2 of arable land within eight districts for which yield data were collected for the years 1869–1913 and 1961–2007. The cropping systems in the region are dominated by rain-fed production of winter wheat, spring barley and winter rape. The yields for winter wheat and spring barley have increased by a factor of 2–3 since the late 19th century, whereas the temperature and precipitation patterns showed trends toward warmer and drier conditions. There was a considerable increase in the inter-annual variability of the absolute yields in the districts. When the variability was evaluated in relative terms (i.e., compared with the yield level), it showed no change or insignificant increases in the warmest and driest regions. The study also found that the sensitivity to inter-seasonal temperature increase was much more pronounced during 1961–2007 than at the end of the 19th century and that an increase of the mean temperature by 1 °C led to yield decreases of up to 11% for winter wheat and up to 10% for spring barley. In contrast, the same temperature increase during the 1869–1913 period would have caused yield decreases of up to 8% and 5%, respectively. In the 1961–2007 period, the negative relationship between the temperature and yields of barley (wheat) was highly significant in seven (eight) of eight districts compared with only four (five) with a much weaker correlation in 1869–1913. During the early period, drier conditions had very small negative or even slightly positive effects on yields, whereas at the end of the 20th century, the May and June drought became a factor that explained a considerable proportion of the yield variability. This was the case especially for spring barley, which is more vulnerable to droughts than is winter wheat. The negative effects of increasing temperature and drought on grain yield were most pronounced in the districts that are currently the warmest and driest. The increasing vulnerability of wheat and barley production to increasing temperatures and droughts over time should be addressed by plant breeders, as there are relatively few adaptation options available to farmers except switching to other crops, which cannot fully substitute for wheat and barley.

Europe is, after Asia, the second largest producer of wheat in the world, and provides the largest share of barley. Wheat (and to a similar extent, barley) production in Europe increased by more than 6-fold during the 20th century. During the first half of the 20th century, this was driven by expanding the harvested area. This was followed, from the mid-20th century, by a mas- sive increase in productivity that in many regions has stalled since 2000. However, it remains unclear what role climatic factors have played in these changes. Understanding the net impact of climatic trends over the past century would also aid in our understanding of the potential impact of future climate changes and in assessments of the potential for adaptation across Europe. In this study, we compiled information from several sources on winter wheat and spring barley yields and climatological data from 12 countries/regions covering the period from 1901−2012. The studied area includes the majority of climatic regions in which wheat and barley are grown (from central Italy to Finland). We hypothesized that changes in climatic conditions have led to measurable shifts in climate−yield relationships over the past 112 yr, and that presently grown wheat and bar- ley show a more pronounced response to adverse weather conditions compared to crops from the early 20 th century. The results confirm that climate−yield relationships have changed significantly over the period studied, and that in some regions, different predictors have had a greater effect on yields in recent times (between 1991 and 2012) than in previous decades. It is likely that changes in the climate−yield relationship at the local level might be more pronounced than those across the relatively large regions used in this study, as the latter represents aggregations of yields from various agroclimatic and pedoclimatic conditions that may show opposing trends (1) (PDF) Changing regional weather-crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307899712_Changing_regional_weather-crop_yield_relationships_across_Europe_between_1901_and_2012 [accessed Nov 10 2018].

The close links of climate, soil conditions, and agricultural productivity have been used in Central Europe for taxation purposes since the eighteenth century. Since agroclimatic conditions are variable, their fluctuations in the past centuries can provide a valuable context for analyzing changes expected in the coming decades. Here, historical agroclimatic conditions and future projections were constructed for key agricultural regions in Central Europe. The agroclimatic zoning method used in this study incorporates (1) the sum of temperatures for days with a mean temperature above 10°C during the frost-free period, (2) the water deficit during the summer period from June to August, defined as the difference between precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, and (3) information regarding the suitability of soil and terrain for agriculture production based on twentieth century soil surveys. Changes in selected agroclimatological indices were also analyzed. To produce a weather series representing climate conditions between 1803 and 2008 over the study area, we used a stochastic weather generator trained on high-quality daily observations from 52 representative meteorological stations during the baseline period from 1961 to 1990. To estimate the extent of agroclimatic zones and the values of selected agroclimatic indices, the parameters of the weather generator were perturbed by the deviations of the temperature and precipitation means from the baseline using a long-term climate series from 1803 to 2008, from Brno. To generate a weather series representing the climate in 2050, we used an approach known as “pattern-scaling” in combination with outputs of three general circulation models. To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing both continuous fluctuations in agroclimatic conditions over the past 200 years and expected shifts in the coming decades over Central Europe.

The newly developed SoilClim model is introduced as a tool for estimates of reference ( ETo ) and actual ( ETa ) evapotranspiration, presence of snow cover, soil temperature at 0.5 m depth and the soil moisture course within two defined layers. It enables one to determine the soil moisture and temperature regimes according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) soil taxonomy. SoilClim works with daily time steps and requires maximum and minimum air temperature, global solar radiation, precipitation, vapor pressure and wind speed as meteorological inputs as well as basic information about the soil properties and vegetation cover. The behavior of SoilClim was assessed using observations at 5 stations in central Europe and 15 stations in the central U.S. The modeled ETo was compared with atmometers so that the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) was 0.91 and root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.53 mm. The estimated ETa was compared against eddy-covariance and Bowen ratio measurements ( R 2 varied from 0.74 to 0.80; RMSE varied from 0.49 to 0.58 mm). The soil temperature (at 0.5 m depth) was estimated with good accuracy ( R 2 varied from 0.94 to 0.97; RMSE varied from 1.23 °C to 2.95 °C). The ability of the SoilClim model to mimic the observed soil water dynamics was carefully investigated (relative root mean square error rRMSE varied from 2.8% to 34.0%). The analysis conducted showed that SoilClim gives reasonable estimates of evaluated parameters at a majority of the included stations. Finally, a spatial analysis of soil moisture and temperature regimes (according to USDA) within the region of the Czech Republic and the northern part of Austria under present conditions was conducted and diagnosed the appearance of Perudic, Subhumid Udic, Dry Tempudic (the highest frequency), Wet Tempustic and Typic Tempustic. The simulated mean soil temperature (0.5 m depth) varied from less than 7.0 °C to 11.0 °C throughout this region. Based on these results, the SoilClim model is a useful and suitable tool for water balance and soil climate assessment on local and regional scales.

During the past few decades, the basic assumption of agroclimatic zoning, i.e., that agroclimatic conditions remain relatively stable, has been shattered by ongoing climate change. The first aim of this study was to develop a tool that would allow for effective analysis of various agroclimatic indicators and their dynamics under climate change conditions for a particular region. The results of this effort were summarized in the AgriClim software package, which provides users with a wide range of parameters essential for the evaluation of climate-related stress factors in agricultural crop production. The software was then tested over an area of 114,000 km2 in Central Europe. We have found that by 2020, the combination of increased air temperature and changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation will lead to a prolonged growing season and significant shifts in the agroclimatic zones in Central Europe; in particular, the areas that are currently most productive will be reduced and replaced by warmer but drier conditions in the same time the higher elevations will most likely experience improvement in their agroclimatic conditions. This positive effect might be short-lived, as by 2050, even these areas might experience much drier conditions than observed currently. Both the rate and the scale of the shift are amazing as by 2020 (assuming upper range of the climate change projections) only 20–38% of agriculture land in the evaluated region will remain in the same agroclimatic and by 2050 it might be less than 2%. On the other hand farmers will be able to take advantage of an earlier start to the growing season, at least in the lowland areas, as the proportion of days suitable for sowing increases. As all of these changes might occur within less than four decades, these issues could pose serious adaptation challenges for farmers and governmental policies. The presented results also suggest that the rate of change might be so rapid that the concept of static agroclimatic zoning itself might lose relevance due to perpetual change.

To date, projections of European crop yields under climate change have been based almost entirely on the outputs of crop-growth models. While this strategy can provide good estimates of the effects of climatic factors, soil conditions and management on crop yield, these models usually do not capture all of the important aspects related to crop management, or the relevant environmental factors. Moreover, crop-simulation studies often have severe limitations with respect to the number of crops covered or the spatial extent. The present study, based on agroclimatic indices, provides a general picture of agroclimatic conditions in western and central Europe (study area lays between 8.5°W–27°E and 37–63.5°N), which allows for a more general assessment of climate-change impacts. The results obtained from the analysis of data from 86 different sites were clustered according to an environmental stratification of Europe. The analysis was carried for the baseline (1971–2000) and future climate conditions (time horizons of 2030, 2050 and with a global temperature increase of 5 °C) based on outputs of three global circulation models. For many environmental zones, there were clear signs of deteriorating agroclimatic condition in terms of increased drought stress and shortening of the active growing season, which in some regions become increasingly squeezed between a cold winter and a hot summer. For most zones the projections show a marked need for adaptive measures to either increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops. This study concludes that rainfed agriculture is likely to face more climate-related risks, although the analyzed agroclimatic indicators will probably remain at a level that should permit rainfed production. However, results suggests that there is a risk of increasing number of extremely unfavorable years in many climate zones, which might result in higher interannual yield variability and constitute a challenge for proper crop management.

SUMMARYThe present study is focused on the potential occurrence of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824), an important potato pest, and the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hübner 1796), the most important maize pest, during climate change. Estimates of the current potential distribution of both pest species as well as their distribution in the expected climate conditions are based on the CLIMEX model. The study covers central Europe, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and parts of Germany, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine, Slovenia, the northern parts of Serbia, parts of Croatia and northern Italy. The validated model of the pests’ geographical distribution was applied within the domain of the regional climate model (RCM) ALADIN, at a resolution of 10 km. The weather series that was the input for the CLIMEX model was prepared by a weather generator (WG) which was calibrated with the RCM-simulated weather series (for the period of 1961–90). To generate a weather series for two future time periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100), the WG parameters were modified according to 12 climate change scenarios produced by the pattern scaling method. The standardized scenarios derived from three global climate models (HadCM, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM) were scaled by low, middle and high values of global temperature change estimated by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) model (assuming three combinations of climatic sensitivity and emission scenarios). The results of present study suggest the likely widening of the pests’ habitats and an increase in the number of generations per year. According to the HadCM-high scenario, the area of arable land affected by a third generation per season of Colorado potato beetle in 2050 is c. 45% higher, and by a second generation of the European corn borer is nearly 61% higher, compared to present levels.

Over the past years, the changing climate has affected parts of Czech Republic and Austria by drought spells of the intensity and extend that was unprecedented in previous decades. These events had a significant impact on agricultural areas, especially on the grasslands. The idea behind the GIS monitoring relies on hypothesis that the effect of weather and climate conditions on the grassland production can be estimated by models that describe certain natural processes in a simplified manner and in spatialized form.