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Article 8 in the Paris Agreement is devoted exclusively to climate change-driven loss and damage. It follows that the planned ���global stocktake��� of the Paris Agreement, which will assess progress toward reaching the Agreement���s goals, should also cover loss and damage. Determining how the assessment for Article 8 should be framed is a question that remains largely unexplored. Doing so is challenging for at least two reasons: the prevailing knowledge gaps in loss and damage research and the contentious nature of inter-governmental negotiations about loss and damage. This article identifies the key framing questions that ought to be answered in the context of Article 8, prior to conducting the ���global stocktake���. Key among these framing questions are critical structural problems, stemming mainly from underrepresentation of Global South worldviews, and from major data gaps and methodological difficulties inherent to assessing progress with managing loss and damage. A ���global stocktake��� of Article 8 provides a window of opportunity for making headway on the inter-governmental debate about loss and damage, and the direction of the research efforts that are needed to inform such debate. This article concludes by reflecting on the stakes that developing countries have in that window of opportunity. Key policy insightsImperfect as its output might be, the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement can help identify and act upon the key barriers that today prevent us from conducting a comprehensive assessment of progress with regard to the goals of Article 8 on loss and damage.The global stocktake should not shy away from considering loss and damage, and should ideally conduct separate assessments for losses and for damages.Developing country governments can use the global stocktake to raise the profile of climate change-driven loss, which is comparatively under-researched, while promoting a concerted effort to fund high-quality domestic research. Imperfect as its output might be, the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement can help identify and act upon the key barriers that today prevent us from conducting a comprehensive assessment of progress with regard to the goals of Article 8 on loss and damage. The global stocktake should not shy away from considering loss and damage, and should ideally conduct separate assessments for losses and for damages. Developing country governments can use the global stocktake to raise the profile of climate change-driven loss, which is comparatively under-researched, while promoting a concerted effort to fund high-quality domestic research.

To meet the needs of a growing population in a manner that is socially equitable, economically viable, and environmentally sustainable, Africa's electricity sector will require a major transformation (1). It has already undergone some important changes over the past decade. Efforts to expand access to electricity have proceeded at a slightly faster pace than anticipated 10 years ago. In parallel, the deployment of renewable energy technologies has progressed apace, despite new discoveries of natural gas across the continent and favored by the volatility of oil prices. Nonetheless, the expansion and modernization of Africa's electricity sector need heightened efforts, as evidenced by current electrification rates, generation-capacity levels, and security-of-supply indicators. We identify a suite of actions that, if implemented, would put Africa's electricity sector on track to sharply increase electrification rates across the continent while securing long-term access to affordable cleaner energy, and reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and emissions of local-air pollutants (see the figure) (2).

Lack of access to modern forms of energy hampers efforts to reduce poverty. The provision of electricity to off-grid communities is therefore a long-standing developmental goal. Yet, many off-grid electrification projects neglect mid- and long-term operation and maintenance costs. When this is the case, electricity services are unlikely to be affordable to the communities that are the project’s primary target. Here we show that, compared with diesel-powered electricity generation systems, solar photovoltaic systems are more affordable to no less than 36% of the unelectrified populations in East Asia, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. We do so by developing geo-referenced estimates of affordability at a high level of resolution (1 km2). The analysis illustrates the differences in affordability that may be found at the subnational level, which underscores that electrification investments should be informed by subnational data.

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are giving an increasingly prominent role to non-state actor action. Reflecting this development, significant research efforts have gone into studying non-state actor actions. However, the literature shows a paucity of studies of the determinants of delivery by non-state actors. The article asks the following question: what is the full range of determinants of delivery by non-state actor focused on adaptation to climate change and disaster risk reduction? Drawing on data collected through interviews with, and a survey of, core partners in a selection of non-state actor actions, the article puts forward a taxonomy that can help gauge the likelihood that a non-state actor action may be able to deliver on its intended objectives. The findings presented in the article reveal that several of the determinants of delivery by non-state actors are outside of the sphere of influence of the core partners in these actions. The article makes the case for using this kind of taxonomies to conducting ex ante assessments of non-state actor actions, with a view to reflecting the results of the assessments in the design of the action, thus increasing the quality of non-state actor action.

In 2015, the United Nations' sustainable development goals (SDGs) were approved. They lay out a shared vision to 2030 for 17 key developmental concerns. SDG7 targets access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services for all; SDG13 focuses on reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and adaption to the impacts of climate change (United Nations 2015). Efforts to achieve SDG7 and SDG13 are interlinked, in that fossil fuels will be used, to a greater or lesser extent, to expand access to modern energy services in developing countries. The dominating view is that the economics of rural-electrification projects are such that these projects, to a high degree, have to rely on fossil fuels. Yet, the literature is inconclusive on this point.

In intergovernmental climate-change negotiations, the impacts of climate change that cannot be avoided through adaptation measures are referred to as loss and damage. To date, there is no commonly agreed definition of the phrase loss and damage. Notwithstanding, it is clear that in a primary or subordinate manner, depending on ones understanding of what loss and damage entails loss and damage is concerned with some of the most costly consequences of global warming. Mainly for this reason, intergovernmental negotiations about loss and damage have made relatively slow progress since the establishment in 2013 of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, the negotiating forum on this matter under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scholarship on loss and damage has helped characterize the scope of loss and damage. The article reviews this scholarship, to explore the potential impact of separating loss and damage, both in the context of research and policy. A key result presented in the article is that treating loss and damage separately would be most beneficial with regard to loss, in that the political hurdles that currently mar the loss-and-damage debate mainly derive from disagreement over financing responsibilities with regard to damages, which unduly slow progress on the urgent task of understanding how to manage loss. In this context, the article provides elements for separate definitions of loss and damage, and suggests a possible categorization of loss-and-damage scholarship.

Decision making for climate change management seldom incorporates uncertainty in the analysis that underpins the policy process. First, uncertainty is seldom characterised fully, and attempts to reduce uncertainty—when this is possible—are rare. Second, scientists are ill-equipped to communicate about uncertainty with policy makers, and policy makers most often favour pretended certainty over nuance and detail. Third, the uncertainty analysis that may have been conducted most often fails to actually influence policy in a significant manner. The case is made for (i) characterising and, to the extent possible, reducing uncertainty, (ii) communicating uncertainty, and (iii) reflecting uncertainty in the design of policy initiatives for climate change management. Possible elements for a research agenda on each of these areas are proposed.

This article provides insights into the role of institutions involved in climate governance working towards a future low-carbon society at the national level, within the global climate change governance architecture. Specifically, it contributes to understanding the fragmented governance of energy efficiency policy in developing countries by focussing on Vietnam’s building sector, identifying key institutions related to underlying discourses, national and international power relations, resource distribution and coalitions. It uses the case of baseline setting in developing Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to illustrate institutional dynamics, nationally and transnationally, as well as to question whether demands for baseline setting achieve the ideal trade-off between actual GHG emissions reduction and institutionalized demands for accountability. The analysis reveals that, in addition to domestic efforts and challenges, the international agenda greatly influences the energy efficiency policy arena. The article presents lessons to be learnt about policy processes from the specific Vietnamese case, reflecting on the role of international actors and discourses in it. Finally, it argues for the abolition of baselines in favour of adequate monitoring and evaluation, from the perspective that requirement for deviation from fictitious baselines is unproductive and only serves an international techno-managerial discourse.

Targeted improvements in the way energy is transformed, distributed and used can accelerate progress toward achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Compared to a situation in which no indicators are defined and monitored, tracking progress through indicators would make it easier to reap the full developmental benefits associated with improvements in energy efficiency. We call upon G20 leaders to adopt SDG-specific energy-efficiency indicators, with a view to ultimately accelerating progress toward achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

Energy planning in rural areas and in developing countries most often relies on the outputs of specialized analytical tools, of which only a handful have been developed. Over the years these tools have been upgraded, and the newest among them take into consideration, to a greater or lesser extent, all key determinants of energy generation and distribution. This article focuses on a “pool” of web‐based geo‐referencing open‐source tools and highlights the extent to which each analytical tool reflects the particularities of the various determinants of energy generation and distribution. In doing so, the present work identifies aspects of the tools that need to be strengthened. Building on this information, the article further maps the suitability of each tool with regard to calculating (at a local level) the six Sustainable Development Goal indicators that are closely related to energy. This makes it possible to draw conclusions about monitoring needs in study‐areas. Bringing together these two sets of findings, the article concludes with a research agenda for analytical tool development in the area of energy planning, which spills over developmental agendas. This article is categorized under: Energy and Development > Systems and Infrastructure Energy and Development > Economics and Policy

© 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive climate change mitigation targets. POLICY INSIGHTSNo minimum transparency and quality standards exist to guide the development of GHG emission scenario forecasts, not even when these forecasts are used to set national climate change mitigation targets.No accountability mechanisms appear to be in place at the national level to ensure that national governments rely on scientifically sound processes to develop GHG emission scenarios.Using probabilistic forecasts to underpin emission reduction targets represents a scientifically sound option for reflecting in the target the uncertainty to which those forecasts are subject, thus increasing the validity of the target.Setting up minimum transparency and quality standards, and holding governments accountable for their choice of forecasting methods could lead to more robust emission reduction targets nationally and, by extension, internationally.

There are growing calls for identifying climate mitigation and adaptation policy packages that would also support human development objectives at the national and regional levels. The literature on climate policy analysis and impact assessment continues to be driven by standard economics with its body of competitive general equilibrium optimization models and cost-benefit analysis techniques of aggregation and monetization. However, its recommendations for climate action are often based on highly restrictive underlying assumptions, which have been increasingly criticized for being too prescriptive, not adequately capturing salient observed socioeconomic realities, and not acknowledging pluralism in values. The main aim of this paper is to put forward a new methodological approach that seeks to address these deficiencies. A generic but comprehensive framework eliciting mitigation-adaptation-development interactions, accounting for institutional barriers, and drawing on a combination of an emerging body of new climate economics and multi-criteria decision analysis is suggested. We purport that, by using this framework, multi-dimensional impacts and multi-stakeholder interests could be better represented when planning climate policy actions. We also argue that analytical tools drawing on economic thinking which embraces interdisciplinary analysis and deep uncertainty and avoids the fallacy of unique optimal solutions, may deliver more effective strategies for pushing economies onto the transformational pathways required.

International audience; The solar resource is the "fuel" of solar energy applications and its availability is a key economic parameter in system design. Even though the southern and eastern Mediterranean region is served by several commercial data providers, in a public domain, so far only coarse resolution (100 km) data or data with limited temporal coverage is available. For more rapid development of policies and to attract the industrial interest in this region a more enhanced and easy to access free information is needed. The project will bring high resolution (1 km), long term coverage of at least 15 years data on the available solar resources for the region covering the countries Syria, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Palestine National Authority, Mauretania and Turkey. The resource data will be derived from Earth Observation satellite data, based on published and transparent methodologies and the data will be validated with existing ground measurements in the region. The database will be provided by SOLEMI and Helioclim (SoDa) sources - Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI). The data will be made available via a distributed information system which will ensure the ease access to the data. The free access to the data will include historical annual and monthly averages, and more detailed data products and services will remain the domain of commercial data providers. This paper will show the first prototype of the user interface for an easy web access to the solar radiation as well as ancillary geographical data. With the presentation of this paper we aim to encourage potential users to give us feedback on the further development.

Accelerating the international use of climate mitigation technologies is key if efforts to curb climate change are to succeed, especially in developing countries, where weak domestic technological innovation systems constrain the uptake of climate change mitigation technologies. Several intergovernmental agencies have set up specific programmes to support the diffusion of climate mitigation technologies. Using a simplified technological innovation system-based framework, this paper aims to systematically review these programmes, with the dual aim of assessing their collective success in promoting technological innovation, and identifying opportunities for the newly formed UNFCCC Technology Mechanism. We con- clude that, while all programmes reviewed have promoted technology transfer, they have given limited attention to innovation capabilities with users, government and universities. Functions that could be further developed include knowledge development, legitimation and market formation. These could be focal areas for the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism. We recom- mend that, in future programmes, part of the funding is dedicated to programmes doing research and development as well as capability development.

International audience; Southern and eastern Mediterranean regions are prone to production of electricity by solar systems. The solar resource is the "fuel" of such systems and its availability is a key economic parameter in system design. Even though the southern and eastern Mediterranean region is served by several commercial data providers, in a public domain, so far only coarse resolution (100 km) data or data with limited temporal coverage is available. For more rapid development of policies and to attract the industrial interest in this region a more enhanced and easy to access free information is needed. The project will bring high resolution (1 km), long term coverage of at least 15 years data on the available solar resources for the region covering the countries Syria, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Palestine National Authority, Mauretania and Turkey. The resource data will be derived from Earth Observation satellite data, based on published and transparent methodologies and the data will be validated with existing ground measurements in the region. The database will be provided by SOLEMI and Helioclim-3 (SoDa) sources - Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI). The data will be made available via a distributed information system which will ensure the ease of access to the data. The free access to the data will include historical, annual and monthly averages, and more detailed data products and services will remain the domain of commercial data providers. This paper will show the first prototype of the user interface for an easy web access to the solar radiation as well as ancillary geographical data. With the presentation of this paper we aim to encourage potential users to give us feedback on the further development.