Search

Abstract NOAA has developed a global reference evapotranspiration (ET0) reanalysis using the UN Food and Agriculture Organization formulation (FAO-56) of the Penman-Monteith equation forced by MERRA phase 2 (MERRA2) meteorological and radiative drivers. The NOAA ET0 reanalysis is provided daily from January 1, 1980 to the near-present at a resolution of 0.5° latitude × 0.625° longitude. The reanalysis is verified against station data across southern Africa, a region presenting both significant challenges regarding hydroclimatic variability and observational quantity and quality and significant potential benefits to food-insecure populations. These data are generated from observations from the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) network. We further verified globally against spatially distributed ET0 derived from two reanalyses–the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Princeton Global Forcing (PGF)–and these verifications produced similar results, yet demonstrated wide regional and seasonal differences. We also present cases that verify the operational applicability of the reanalysis in long-established drought, famine, crop- and pastoral-stress metrics, and in predictability assessments of drought forecasts.

Many precipitation-driven data products from land data assimilation systems support assessments of droughts, floods, and other societally-relevant land-surface processes. The accumulated precipitation used as input to these products has a significant impact on water budgets; however, the effects of daily distribution of precipitation on these products are not well known. A comparison of the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations version 2 (CHIRPS2) rainfall products over the continental United States (CONUS) was performed to quantify the impacts of the daily distribution of precipitation on biases and errors in soil moisture, runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET). Since the total accumulated precipitation between the IMERG and CHIRPS product differed, a third precipitation product, CHIRPS-to-IMERG (CHtoIM), was produced that used CHIRPS2 accumulated precipitation totals and the daily precipitation frequency distribution of IMERG. This new product supported a controlled analysis of the impact of precipitation frequency distribution on simulated hydrological fields. The CHtoIM had higher occurrences of precipitation in the 0–5 mm day−1 range, with a lower occurrence of dry days, which decreased soil moisture and surface runoff in the land-surface model. The surface soil layer had a tendency to reach saturation more often in the CHIRPS2 simulations, where the number of moderate to heavy precipitation days (>5 mm day−1) was increased. Using the blended CHtoIM product as input reduced errors in surface soil moisture by 5–15% when compared to Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) data. Similarly, ET errors were also slightly decreased (~2%) when compared to SSEBop data. Moderate changes in daily precipitation distributions had a quantifiable impact on soil moisture, runoff, and ET. These changes usually improved the model when compared to other modeled and observational datasets, but the magnitude of the improvements varied by region and time of year.

The objective of the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) is to develop, evaluate and improve methods for measuring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cities. INFLUX’s scientific objectives are to quantify CO2 and CH4 emission rates at 1 km2 resolution with a 10% or better accuracy and precision, to determine whole-city emissions with similar skill, and to achieve high (weekly or finer) temporal resolution at both spatial resolutions. The experiment employs atmospheric GHG measurements from both towers and aircraft, atmospheric transport observations and models, and activity-based inventory products to quantify urban GHG emissions. Multiple, independent methods for estimating urban emissions are a central facet of our experimental design. INFLUX was initiated in 2010 and measurements and analyses are ongoing. To date we have quantified urban atmospheric GHG enhancements using aircraft and towers with measurements collected over multiple years, and have estimated whole-city CO2 and CH4 emissions using aircraft and tower GHG measurements, and inventory methods. Significant differences exist across methods; these differences have not yet been resolved; research to reduce uncertainties and reconcile these differences is underway. Sectorally- and spatially-resolved flux estimates, and detection of changes of fluxes over time, are also active research topics. Major challenges include developing methods for distinguishing anthropogenic from biogenic CO2 fluxes, improving our ability to interpret atmospheric GHG measurements close to urban GHG sources and across a broader range of atmospheric stability conditions, and quantifying uncertainties in inventory data products. INFLUX data and tools are intended to serve as an open resource and test bed for future investigations. Well-documented, public archival of data and methods is under development in support of this objective.

We present a high-resolution atmospheric inversion system combining a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), and test the impact of assimilating meteorological observation on transport accuracy. A Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA) technique continuously assimilates meteorological observations from various observing systems into the transport modeling system, and is coupled to the high resolution CO2 emission product Hestia to simulate the atmospheric mole fractions of CO2. For the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) project, we evaluated the impact of assimilating different meteorological observation systems on the linearized adjoint solutions and the CO2 inverse fluxes estimated using observed CO2 mole fractions from 11 out of 12 communications towers over Indianapolis for the Sep.-Nov. 2013 period. While assimilating WMO surface measurements improved the simulated wind speed and direction, their impact on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was limited. Simulated PBL wind statistics improved significantly when assimilating upper-air observations from the commercial airline program Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) and continuous ground-based Doppler lidar wind observations. Wind direction mean absolute error (MAE) decreased from 26 to 14 degrees and the wind speed MAE decreased from 2.0 to 1.2 m s–1, while the bias remains small in all configurations (< 6 degrees and 0.2 m s–1). Wind speed MAE and ME are larger in daytime than in nighttime. PBL depth MAE is reduced by ~10%, with little bias reduction. The inverse results indicate that the spatial distribution of CO2 inverse fluxes were affected by the model performance while the overall flux estimates changed little across WRF simulations when aggregated over the entire domain. Our results show that PBL wind observations are a potent tool for increasing the precision of urban meteorological reanalyses, but that the impact on inverse flux estimates is dependent on the specific urban environment.

As part of the Indianapolis Flux (INFLUX) experiment, the accuracy and biases of simulated meteorological fields were assessed for the city of Indianapolis, IN. The INFLUX project allows for a unique opportunity to conduct an extensive observation-to-model comparison in order to assess model errors for the following meteorological variables: latent heat and sensible heat fluxes, air temperature near the surface and in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), wind speed and direction, and PBL height. In order to test the sensitivity of meteorological simulations to different model packages, a set of simulations was performed by implementing different PBL schemes, urban canopy models (UCMs), and a model subroutine that was created in order to reduce an inherent model overestimation of urban land cover. It was found that accurately representing the amount of urban cover in the simulations reduced the biases in most cases during the summertime (SUMMER) simulations. The simulations that used the BEP urban canopy model and the Bougeault & Lacarrere (BouLac) PBL scheme had the smallest biases in the wintertime (WINTER) simulations for most meteorological variables, with the exception being wind direction. The model configuration chosen had a larger impact on model errors during the WINTER simulations, whereas the differences between most of the model configurations during the SUMMER simulations were not statistically significant. By learning the behaviors of different PBL schemes and urban canopy models, researchers can start to understand the expected biases in certain model configurations for their own simulations and have a hypothesis as to the potential errors and biases that might occur when using a multi-physics ensemble based modeling approach.

Las especies virales de la familia Coronaviridae presentan transmisión zoonótica y causan infecciones respiratorias y gastrointestinales en aves y mamíferos. En esta familia existen tres especies que han podido infectar diversas poblaciones humanas: SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV y SARS-CoV-2. Este último virus es el agente causal de la enfermedad denominada Covid-19, declarada por la Organización Mundial de la Salud como pandemia debido a su forma de transmisión, periodo de latencia y reportes en todo el mundo. En Ecuador, el primer caso de Covid-19 fue diagnosticado el 28 de febrero de 2020 y las medidas sanitarias fueron focalizadas en la suspensión de eventos masivos de forma local. Varios días después, el aislamiento empezó con el decreto del Estado de Emergencia Sanitaria en el que el gobierno central y el municipio de Quito innovaron en medidas de contingencia y prevención. Acto seguido, la imposición de cuarentena y toque de queda nacional inició con la declaración del Estado de Excepción, pero el municipio de Guayaquil no pudo manejar la contumacia ciudadana. Producto de ello, Guayaquil reportó un crecimiento exorbitante de defunciones en hospitales, viviendas y calles de la urbe. Por otra parte, el modelo de gestión establecido en Quito minimizó el impacto de la nueva enfermedad.

La pandemia del covid-19 alteró el patrón de consumo de los hogares a nivel mundial. Estos cambios no los incorpora el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) porque dicha medición se basa en una canasta fija de bienes, lo cual podría estar subestimando la inflación en Colombia. En este documento se hace un ejercicio utilizando una estructura de ponderaciones alternativa para evaluar los cambios que podría presentar el cálculo en el IPC durante el periodo de la pandemia. Los resultados muestran que los precios al consumidor estarían aumentando más rápido de lo que indican las medidas del IPC con ponderaciones fijas.

Introduction: Strongyloides venezuelensis is a nematode whose natural host is rats. It is used as a model for the investigation of human strongyloidiasis caused by S. stercoralis. The latter is a neglected tropical disease in Ecuador where there are no specific plans to mitigate this parasitic illness. Objective: To evaluate the stages of S. venezuelensis in an experimental life cycle using Wistar rats. Materials and methods: Male Wistar rats were used to replicate the natural biological cycle of S. venezuelensis and describe its morphometric characteristics, as well as its parasitic development. Furthermore, the production of eggs per gram of feces was quantified using two diagnostic techniques and assessment of parasite load: Kato-Katz and qPCR. Results: Viable larval stages (L1, L2, L3) could be obtained up to 96 hours through fecal culture. Parthenogenetic females were established in the duodenum on the fifth day postinfection. Fertile eggs were observed in the intestinal tissue and fresh feces where the production peak occurred on the 8th. day post-infection. Unlike Kato-Katz, qPCR detected parasitic DNA on days not typically reported. Conclusions: The larval migration of S. venezuelensis within the murine host in an experimental environment was equivalent to that described in its natural biological cycle. The Kato-Katz quantitative technique showed to be quick and low-cost, but the qPCR had greater diagnostic precision. This experimental life cycle can be used as a tool for the study of strongyloidiasis or other similar nematodiasis.

En el trabajo se analizan los esquemas termo-energéticos de los centrales “14 de Julio” y “Antonio Sánchez” pertenecientes a la provincia de Cienfuegos. En dichas empresas se elaboraron los diagramas de Flujo de Proceso y Flujo de Información para su posterior simulación en el software Termoazucar (STA 4.1). Con el auxilio del software de referencia, la modelación del caso base en estos centrales permitió determinar las oportunidades de mejoras de los esquemas térmicos. La implementación de éstas en la modelación de los casos mejorados de estos ingenios facilitó conocer la posibilidad de incrementos de la energía eléctrica vendida al Sistema Eletroenergético Nacional (SEN) en un 16% en el central “14 de Julio” y de un 50% en el central “Antonio Sánchez” manteniendo ambos los mismos niveles de molida.

Introducción: la displasia residual de cadera en jóvenes y adultos requiere un procedimiento quirúrgico para su tratamiento; tener en cuenta el comportamiento biomecánico futuro de la articulación podría ser una útil herramienta en la planeación y evaluacióndel procedimiento quirúrgico más adecuado para el paciente. Objetivo: realizar una comparación entre la distribución de esfuerzos pre y post quirúrgicos sobre una articulación de cadera con secuelas de displasia utilizando el método de elementos finitos para su resolución. Métodos: se usó un modelo de elementos finitos de la articulación de un paciente con secuelas de displasia, reconstruido a partir de imágenes obtenidas por TAC, y un modelo de la reubicación articular simulando elprocedimiento quirúrgico realizado. El máximo esfuerzo generado y el área de soporte de peso fueron calculados durante la etapa de apoyo de un ciclo de marcha. Resultados: hay una excesiva carga sobre la articulación patológica debido a la reducida cobertura articular. Las simulaciones sobre el modelo post-quirúrgico revelaron una reducción del 20,20 % en elesfuerzo máximo generado sobre la cabeza femoral en el punto de mayor carga en la marcha (20 % de la fase de apoyo), además de una reducción del 49 % en la presión de contacto sobre el cartílago articular y un incremento del 64 % en el área de soporte de peso en el mismo punto. Conclusiones: este estudio revela una mejora biomecánica post-quirúrgica muy considerableen el nivel de la carga que soporta la articulación; por otra parte, permite tener un mayor acercamiento a la realidad del paciente y contribuye a la toma de una óptima decisión para el tratamiento de la patología.