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Dapagliflozin is a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor approved to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), among other conditions. When dapagliflozin was approved in Europe for treating T2DM (2012), potential safety concerns regarding its effect on kidney function resulted in this post-authorization safety study to assess hospitalization for acute kidney injury (hAKI) among dapagliflozin initiators in a real-world setting.The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of hAKI in adults with T2DM initiating dapagliflozin compared with other glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs).This noninterventional cohort study identified new users of dapagliflozin and comparator GLDs from November 2012 to February 2019 from three longitudinal, population-based data sources: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD; United Kingdom), the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD; United States [US]), and Medicare (US). Electronic algorithms identified occurrences of hAKI, from which a sample underwent validation. Incidence rates for hAKI were calculated, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) compared hAKI in dapagliflozin with comparator GLDs. Propensity score trimming and stratification were conducted for confounding adjustment.In all data sources, dapagliflozin initiators had a lower hAKI incidence rate than comparator GLD initiators (adjusted IRRs: CPRD, 0.44 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.22-0.86]; HIRD, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.62-0.93]; Medicare, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.59-0.79]). The adjusted IRR pooled across the data sources was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.62-0.78). Results from sensitivity and stratified analyses were consistent with the primary analysis.This study, with34,000 person-years of real-world dapagliflozin exposure, suggests a decreased risk of hAKI in patients with T2DM exposed to dapagliflozin, aligning with results from dapagliflozin clinical trials.European Union Post-Authorisation Studies Register, EUPAS 11684; ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02695082.

Active monitoring of safety outcomes following COVID-19 vaccination is critical to understand vaccine safety and can provide early detection of rare outcomes not identified in pre-licensure trials. We present findings from an early warning rapid surveillance system in three large commercial insurance databases including more than 16 million vaccinated individuals.We evaluated 17 outcomes of interest following COVID-19 vaccination among individuals aged 12-64 years in Optum, HealthCore, and CVS Health databases from December 11, 2020, through January 22, 2022, January 7, 2022, and December 31, 2021, respectively. We conducted biweekly or monthly sequential testing and generated rate ratios (RR) of observed outcome rates compared to historical (or expected) rates prior to COVID-19 vaccination.Among 17 outcomes evaluated, 15 did not meet the threshold for statistical signal in any of the three databases. Myocarditis/pericarditis met the statistical threshold for a signal following BNT162b2 in two of three databases (RRs: 1.83-2.47). Anaphylaxis met the statistical threshold for a signal in all three databases following BNT162b2 vaccination (RRs: 4.48-10.86) and mRNA-1273 vaccination (RRs: 7.64-12.40).Consistent with published literature, our near-real time monitoring of 17 adverse outcomes following COVID-19 vaccinations identified signals for myocarditis/pericarditis and anaphylaxis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccinations. The method is intended for early detection of safety signals, and results do not imply a causal effect. Results of this study should be interpreted in the context of the method's utility and limitations, and the validity of detected signals must be evaluated in fully adjusted epidemiologic studies.

Researchers wanted to investigate side effects identified with advanced lung cancer during treatment, particularly immunotherapy. To investigate these side effects, researchers examined health insurance claims records from patients who were diagnosed with advanced lung cancer between January 2010 and July 2019, and who received treatment at various clinics across the USA. Researchers identified records for 44,045 patients treated for advanced lung cancer, with 5278 being treated with immunotherapy. After patients started immunotherapy, the most commonly reported side effects were tiredness and nausea/vomiting. Other side effects possibly related to immunotherapy were inflammation of the large intestine and lung inflammation – these events were not reported very often and did not increase in frequency 6 months after start of treatment. This large real-world study provides estimates for the frequency of side effects for those treated for advanced lung cancer, and finds that there were no large increases in the occurrence of any particular side effect in the 6 months after patients started immunotherapy for advanced lung cancer.

ImportanceActive monitoring of health outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination offers early detection of rare outcomes that may not be identified in prelicensure trials.ObjectiveTo conduct near–real-time monitoring of health outcomes following BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in the US pediatric population aged 5 to 17 years.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis population-based study was conducted under a public health surveillance mandate from the US Food and Drug Administration. Participants aged 5 to 17 years were included if they received BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination through mid 2022 and had continuous enrollment in a medical health insurance plan from the start of an outcome-specific clean window until the COVID-19 vaccination. Surveillance of 20 prespecified health outcomes was conducted in near real time within a cohort of vaccinated individuals from the earliest Emergency Use Authorization date for the BNT162b2 vaccination (December 11, 2020) and was expanded as more pediatric age groups received authorization through May and June 2022. All 20 health outcomes were monitored descriptively, 13 of which additionally underwent sequential testing. For these 13 health outcomes, the increased risk of each outcome after vaccination was compared with a historical baseline with adjustments for repeated looks at the data as well as a claims processing delay. A sequential testing approach was used, which declared a safety signal when the log likelihood ratio comparing the observed rate ratio against the null hypothesis exceeded a critical value.ExposureExposure was defined as receipt of a BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine dose. The primary analysis assessed primary series doses together (dose 1 + dose 2), and dose-specific secondary analyses were conducted. Follow-up time was censored for death, disenrollment, end of the outcome-specific risk window, end of the study period, or a receipt of a subsequent vaccine dose.Main OutcomesTwenty prespecified health outcomes: 13 were assessed using sequential testing and 7 were monitored descriptively because of a lack of historical comparator data.ResultsThis study included 3 017 352 enrollees aged 5 to 17 years. Of the enrollees across all 3 databases, 1 510 817 (50.1%) were males, 1 506 499 (49.9%) were females, and 2 867 436 (95.0%) lived in an urban area. In the primary sequential analyses, a safety signal was observed only for myocarditis or pericarditis after primary series vaccination with BNT162b2 in the age group 12 to 17 years across all 3 databases. No safety signals were observed for the 12 other outcomes assessed using sequential testing.Conclusions and RelevanceAmong 20 health outcomes that were monitored in near real time, a safety signal was identified for only myocarditis or pericarditis. Consistent with other published reports, these results provide additional evidence that COVID-19 vaccines are safe in children.

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Introduction: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is an important risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer. Individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have higher oral HPV prevalence but the risk factors for oral HPV infection are not well understood for either HIV-positive or HIV-negative individuals.Methods: This study was nested within the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS; men) and Women Interagency HIV Study (WIHS; women) cohorts. Exfoliated oral epithelial cells were collected from 379 HIV-positive and 266 at-risk HIV-negative individuals using a rinse and gargle with Scope mouthwash. Samples were tested for 36 types of HPV DNA using PGMY09/11 consensus primers and reverse line blot hybridization. Risk factors for oral HPV infection were explored using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations in this cross-sectional analysis.Results: Prevalent oral HPV infection was common (34%), including HPV16 infection in 5.7% of participants. HIV-positive individuals had increased odds of prevalent oral HPV infection compared with HIV-negative individuals [adjusted OR = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.6–2.8]. Risk factors for prevalent oral HPV differed in HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants. Among HIV-negative individuals, higher number of recent oral sex or rimming partners were strong risk factors for prevalent oral HPV infection (each Ptrend < 0.01). In contrast, among HIV-positive individuals, lower CD4 T-cell count (Ptrend < 0.001) and higher number of lifetime sexual partners (Ptrend = 0.03) were strong risk factors.Conclusions: Oral HPV prevalence was elevated in HIV-positive individuals after controlling for differences in cigarette smoking and sexual behavior, supporting the possibility that HIV may affect the natural history of oral HPV.Impact: Immunosuppression may contribute to increased persistence or progression of oral HPV infection. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 21(1); 122–33. ©2011 AACR.

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BACKGROUND: The treatment landscape for advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has evolved from 2015 onward, since the introduction of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Considering this shif...

At the time of dapagliflozin's approval in Europe (2012) to treat patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, concerns regarding acute liver injury and severe complications of urinary tract infection (sUTI) led to two post-authorization safety (PAS) studies of these outcomes to monitor the safety of dapagliflozin in real-world use.To investigate the incidence of hospitalization for acute liver injury (hALI) or sUTI (pyelonephritis or urosepsis) among patients initiating dapagliflozin compared with other glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs).These two noninterventional cohort studies identified initiators of dapagliflozin and comparator GLDs in November 2012-February 2019 using data from three longitudinal, population-based data sources: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (UK), the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (USA), and the Medicare database (USA). Outcomes (hALI and sUTI) were identified with electronic algorithms. Incidence rates were estimated by exposure group. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated comparing dapagliflozin to comparator GLDs, using propensity score trimming and stratification to address confounding. The sUTI analyses were conducted separately by sex.In all data sources, hALI and sUTI incidence rates were generally lower in dapagliflozin initiators than comparator GLD initiators. The adjusted IRR (95% confidence interval) pooled across data sources for hALI was 0.85 (0.59-1.24) and for sUTI was 0.76 (0.60-0.96) in females and 0.74 (0.56-1.00) in males. Findings from sensitivity analyses were largely consistent with the primary analyses.These real-world studies do not suggest increased risks of hALI or sUTI, and they suggest a potential decreased risk of sUTI with dapagliflozin exposure compared with other GLDs.

ImportanceActive monitoring of health outcomes following COVID-19 vaccination offers early detection of rare outcomes that may not be identified in pre-licensure trials.ObjectiveTo conduct near-real time monitoring of health outcomes following BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in the U.S. pediatric population aged 5-17 years.DesignWe conducted rapid cycle analysis of 20 pre-specified health outcomes, 13 of which underwent sequential testing and 7 of which were monitored descriptively within a cohort of vaccinated individuals. We tested for increased risk of each health outcome following vaccination compared to a historical baseline, while adjusting for repeated looks at the data as well as claims processing delay.SettingThis is a population-based study in three large commercial claims databases conducted under the U.S. FDA public health surveillance mandate.ParticipantsThe study included over 3 million enrollees aged 5-17 years with BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination through mid-2022 in three commercial claims databases. We required continuous enrollment in a medical health insurance plan from the start of an outcome-specific clean window to the COVID-19 vaccination.ExposureExposure was defined as receipt of a BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine dose. The primary analysis assessed primary series doses together (Dose 1 + Dose 2), and dose-specific secondary analyses were conducted. Follow up time was censored for death, disenrollment, end of risk window, end of study period, or a subsequent vaccine dose.Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)We monitored 20 pre-specified health outcomes. We performed descriptive monitoring for all outcomes and sequential testing for 13 outcomes.ResultsAmong 13 health outcomes evaluated by sequential testing, 12 did not meet the threshold for a statistical signal in any of the three databases. In our primary analysis, myocarditis/pericarditis signaled following primary series vaccination with BNT162b2 in ages 12-17 years across all three databases.Conclusions and RelevanceConsistent with published literature, our near-real time monitoring identified a signal for only myocarditis/pericarditis following BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in children aged 12-17 years. This method is intended for early detection of safety signals. Our results are reassuring of the safety of the vaccine, and the potential benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks.Key PointsQuestionDid active monitoring detect potentially elevated risk of health outcomes following BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in the U.S. pediatric population aged 5-17 years?FindingsTwelve of 13 health outcomes did not meet the safety signal threshold following BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in three large commercial claims databases using near real-time monitoring. Myocarditis/pericarditis met the statistical threshold for a signal following primary series vaccination in ages 12-17 years.MeaningResults from near-real time monitoring of health outcomes following BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination provide additional reassuring evidence of vaccine safety in the pediatric population. The myocarditis/pericarditis signal is consistent with current evidence and is being further evaluated.

Background: TNF inhibitors (TNFi) effectively treat rheumatoid arthritis but may increase patient risk of some malignancies, particularly lymphomas or skin cancers. Methods: We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)–Medicare data to conduct a case–control study in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (2007–2015). Cases were individuals with a first cancer diagnosed in SEER registries (ages 66–99, 22 cancer sites, N = 10,263). Skin cancer cases [nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC, N = 501), basal cell carcinoma (BCC, N = 161), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC, N = 150)] and cancer-free controls (N = 30,475) were selected from Medicare beneficiaries residing in SEER areas. Cases and controls had prior Medicare claims-based evidence for rheumatoid arthritis, and TNFi exposure was ascertained from part B and part D claims. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR). Results: TNFi exposure was present in 16.2% of controls and 12.8% to 33.7% of cancer cases, varying by site. TNFi use was associated with increased risk of NMSC overall (aOR 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.06–1.63), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) overall (1.28, 1.06–1.56) and, specifically, follicular lymphoma (2.63, 1.63–4.24). TNFi exposure was not associated with other SEER cancer sites, BCC or SCC specifically, or other common NHL subtypes. Conclusions: Among older adults with rheumatoid arthritis, TNFi exposure was associated with elevated risk of NMSC and NHL, driven specifically by follicular lymphoma. Exposure was not associated with increased risk for other cancer sites. Impact: Our results support a role for TNF in lymphomagenesis. Given the association with NMSC, patients initiating TNFi therapy may benefit from skin cancer screening and sun protection measures.

Purpose To use medical record adjudication and predictive modeling methods to develop and validate an algorithm to identify anaphylaxis among adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in administrative claims. Methods A conventional screening algorithm that prioritized sensitivity to identify potential anaphylaxis cases was developed and consisted of diagnosis codes for anaphylaxis or relevant signs and symptoms. This algorithm was applied to adults with T2D in the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD) from 2016 to 2018. Clinical experts adjudicated anaphylaxis case status from redacted medical records. We used confirmed case status as an outcome for predictive models developed using lasso regression with 10-fold cross-validation to identify predictors and estimate the probability of confirmed anaphylaxis. Results Clinical adjudicators reviewed medical records with sufficient information from 272 adults identified by the anaphylaxis screening algorithm, which had an estimated Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 65% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 60%-71%). The predictive model algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.95. The model's probability threshold of 0.60 excluded 89% (84/94) of false positives identified by the screening algorithm, with a PPV of 94% (95% CI: 91%-98%). The model excluded very few true positives (15 of 178), and identified 92% (95% CI: 87%-96%) of the cases selected by the screening algorithm. Conclusions Predictive modeling techniques yielded an accurate algorithm with high PPV and sensitivity for identifying anaphylaxis in administrative claims. This algorithm could be considered in future safety studies using similar claims data to reduce potential outcome misclassification.

Background: We conducted a study to assess whether testosterone therapy (TT) alters prostate cancer risk using a large U.S. commercial insurance research database. Methods: From the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD), we selected men ages 30 years or greater who were new users of TT during 2007 to 2015. We selected two comparison groups: (i) unexposed (matched 10:1) and (ii) new users of phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitor (PDE5i). Incident prostate cancer was defined as diagnosis of prostate cancer within 4 weeks following prostate biopsy. Propensity scores and inverse probability of treatment weights were used in Poisson regression models to estimate adjusted incidence rates, incidence rate ratios (IRR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Subgroup analyses included stratification by prostate cancer screening, hypogonadism, and follow-up time. Results: The adjusted prostate cancer IRR was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.68–0.86) when comparing TT with the unexposed group and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.79–0.91) in comparison with the PDE5i group. Inverse associations between TT and prostate cancer were observed in a majority of subgroup analyses, although in both comparisons estimates generally attenuated with increasing time following initial exposure. Among TT users, duration of exposure was not associated with prostate cancer. Conclusions: Men who received TT did not have a higher rate of prostate cancer compared with the unexposed or PDE5i comparison groups. The inverse association between TT and prostate cancer could be the result of residual confounding, contraindication bias, or undefined biological effect. Impact: This study suggests that limited TT exposure does not increase risk of prostate cancer in the short term.

Several passive surveillance systems reported increased risks of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, especially in young men. We used active surveillance from large health-care databases to quantify and enable the direct comparison of the risk of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, after mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccinations.We conducted a retrospective cohort study, examining the primary outcome of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, identified using the International Classification of Diseases diagnosis codes, occurring 1-7 days post-vaccination, evaluated in COVID-19 mRNA vaccinees aged 18-64 years using health plan claims databases in the USA. Observed (O) incidence rates were compared with expected (E) incidence rates estimated from historical cohorts by each database. We used multivariate Poisson regression to estimate the adjusted incidence rates, specific to each brand of vaccine, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2. We used meta-analyses to pool the adjusted incidence rates and IRRs across databases.A total of 411 myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, events were observed among 15 148 369 people aged 18-64 years who received 16 912 716 doses of BNT162b2 and 10 631 554 doses of mRNA-1273. Among men aged 18-25 years, the pooled incidence rate was highest after the second dose, at 1·71 (95% CI 1·31 to 2·23) per 100 000 person-days for BNT162b2 and 2·17 (1·55 to 3·04) per 100 000 person-days for mRNA-1273. The pooled IRR in the head-to-head comparison of the two mRNA vaccines was 1·43 (95% CI 0·88 to 2·34), with an excess risk of 27·80 per million doses (-21·88 to 77·48) in mRNA-1273 recipients compared with BNT162b2.An increased risk of myocarditis or pericarditis was observed after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and was highest in men aged 18-25 years after a second dose of the vaccine. However, the incidence was rare. These results do not indicate a statistically significant risk difference between mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, but it should not be ruled out that a difference might exist. Our study results, along with the benefit-risk profile, continue to support vaccination using either of the two mRNA vaccines.US Food and Drug Administration.

OxyContin was reformulated with a polyethylene oxide matrix in August 2010 to reduce the potential for intravenous abuse and for abuse by insufflation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of OxyContin's reformulation on overdose (OD) risk for individuals dispensed OxyContin in comparison to those dispensed other opioids under regular care.Three national insurance databases with National Death Index linkage identified OD in individuals with any dispensing of OxyContin or a primary comparator opioid (extended release morphine, transdermal fentanyl, or methadone) between July 2008 through September 2015. A difference-in-differences design was used to compare the pre-post reformulation changes in OD rates for OxyContin versus comparators.A total of 297,836 individuals were dispensed OxyContin and 659,673 individuals were dispensed a primary comparator across the 3 databases. Overall, there was little or no difference in the temporal change in OD incidence in comparators versus OxyContin (Medicaid: adjusted ratio-of-rate-ratios (aRoRs) ranging from 0.90 to 1.05; MarketScan/HIRD: aRoR ranging from 1.10 to 1.22). However, restriction to person-time without concomitant opioid use revealed a modestly greater reduction in OD incidence over time during OxyContin use, as the aRoRs comparing the primary comparators to OxyContin ranged from 1.06 to 1.30 in Medicaid and from 1.64 to 1.85 in MarketScan/HIRD.This study did not detect an overall effect of the OxyContin reformulation on OD in insured patients under regular medical care. There is a suggestion of a modestly reduced OxyContin-associated OD risk following the reformulation but only in commercially insured individuals receiving single-opioid regimens.

Background Background incidence rates (IRs) of potential safety outcomes among vaccine eligible individuals can inform assessment of vaccine safety. Vaccine safety surveillance often uses claims databases, but the impact of outcome definitions on background IR estimates is largely unexplored. Using two definitions for each outcome, we estimated background IRs of 32 cardiac, metabolic, allergic, autoimmune, neurologic, hematologic and nephrologic outcomes among individuals eligible to receive pneumococcal vaccination. Methods We defined a cohort of individuals aged 6–100 years in US commercial health plans who had ≥12 months of health plan enrollment between January 2007 and August 2014 and no previous record of conjugate or simple polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccination. We developed a sensitive and a specific definition for each outcome, with the specific definition requiring evidence of additional care consistent with the outcome. IRs per 100,000 person-years for each outcome were presented overall and stratified by age, gender, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) risk category. Results We followed 19.9 million individuals for a median of 2.5 years. Wide variation was seen in IRs across different definitions of the 32 outcomes, with 19 (59%) outcomes having a specific definition IR less than half of the sensitive definition IR. IRs were particularly variable by definition for outcomes categorized as either hematologic/nephrologic or neurologic (mean ratio of specific IR to sensitive IR = 0.26 and 0.30, respectively). Across definitions, the IRs of the 32 outcomes were often highest in females, adults ≥65, and those at higher IPD risk. Conclusions Background IRs of safety outcomes relevant to populations indicated for pneumococcal vaccine varied by outcome definitions and population subgroups in this large US commercially-insured population. Given large differences in estimated IRs using sensitive versus specific case definitions, neurologic, and hematologic/nephrologic safety outcomes as compared to allergic and autoimmune outcomes may warrant more refined definitions and medical record validation.

Background There is limited real-world safety information on palbociclib for treatment of advanced stage HR+/HER2- breast cancer. Methods We conducted a cohort study of breast cancer patients initiating palbociclib and fulvestrant from February 2015 to September 2017 using the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD), a longitudinal claims database of commercial health plan members in the United States. The historical comparator cohort comprised patients initiating fulvestrant monotherapy from January 2011 to January 2015. Propensity score matching and Cox regression were used to estimate hazard ratios for various safety events. For acute liver injury (ALI), additional analyses and medical record validation were conducted. Results There were 2445 patients who initiated palbociclib including 566 new users of palbociclib-fulvestrant, and 2316 historical new users of fulvestrant monotherapy. Compared to these historical new users of fulvestrant monotherapy, new users of palbociclib-fulvestrant had a greater than 2-fold elevated risk for neutropenia, leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, stomatitis and mucositis, and ALI. Incidence of anemia and QT prolongation were more weakly associated, and incidences of serious infections and pulmonary embolism were similar between groups after propensity score matching. After adjustment for additional ALI risk factors, the elevated risk of ALI in new users of palbociclib-fulvestrant persisted (e.g. primary ALI algorithm hazard ratio (HR) = 3.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.1–8.4). Conclusions This real-world study found increased risks of several adverse events identified in clinical trials, including neutropenia, leukopenia, and thrombocytopenia, but no increased risk of serious infections or pulmonary embolism when comparing new users of palbociclib-fulvestrant to fulvestrant monotherapy. We observed an increased risk of ALI, extending clinical trial findings of significant imbalances in grade 3/4 elevations of alanine aminotransferase (ALT).

Background Detailed epidemiologic descriptions of large populations of advanced stage ovarian cancer patients have been lacking to date. This study aimed to describe the patient characteristics, treatment patterns, survival, and incidence rates of health outcomes of interest (HOI) in a large cohort of advanced stage ovarian cancer patients in the United States (US). Methods This cohort study identified incident advanced stage (III/IV) ovarian cancer patients in the US diagnosed from 2010 to 2018 in the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD) using a validated predictive model algorithm. Descriptive characteristics were presented overall and by treatment line. The incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals for pre-specified HOIs were evaluated after advanced stage diagnosis. Overall survival, time to treatment discontinuation or death (TTD), and time to next treatment or death (TTNT) were defined using treatment information in claims and linkage with the National Death Index. Results We identified 12,659 patients with incident advanced stage ovarian cancer during the study period. Most patients undergoing treatment received platinum agents (75%) and/or taxanes (70%). The most common HOIs (> 24 per 100 person-years) included abdominal pain, nausea and vomiting, anemia, and serious infections. The median overall survival from diagnosis was 4.5 years, while approximately half of the treated cohort had a first-line time to treatment discontinuation or death (TTD) within the first 4 months, and a time to next treatment or death (TTNT) from first to second-line of about 6 months. Conclusions This study describes commercially insured US patients with advanced stage ovarian cancer from 2010 to 2018, and observed diverse treatment patterns, incidence of numerous HOIs, and limited survival in this population.

Background: Immunological cross-reactivity between common cold coronaviruses (CCC) and SARS-CoV-2 might account for the reduced incidence of COVID-19 in children. Evidence to support speculation includes in vitro evidence for humoral and cellular cross-reactivity with SARS-CoV-2 in specimens obtained before the pandemic started. Method: We used retrospective health insurance enrollment records, claims, and laboratory results to assemble a cohort of 869,236 insured individuals who had a PCR test for SARS-CoV-2. We estimated the effects of having clinical encounters for various diagnostic categories in the year preceding the study period on the risk of a positive test result. Findings: After adjusting for age, gender and care seeking behavior, we identified that individuals with diagnoses for common cold symptoms, including acute sinusitis, bronchitis, or pharyngitis in the preceding year had a lower risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (OR=0.76, 95%CI=0.75, 0.77). No reduction in the odds of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 was seen in individuals under 18 years. The reduction in odds in adults remained stable for four years but was strongest in those with recent common cold symptoms. Interpretation: While this study cannot attribute this association to cross-immunity resulting from a prior CCC infection, it is one potential explanation. Regardless of the cause, the reduction in the odds of being infected by SARS-CoV-2 among those with a recent diagnosis of common cold symptoms may have a role in shifting future COVD-19 infection patterns from endemic to episodic. Funding: All authors are employees or consultants for Anthem Inc. or HealthCore Inc. There was no funding for this study. Declaration of Interests: Drs. Beachler and Lanes are employees of HealthCore Inc., a subsidiary of Anthem Inc. Dr. Ovehage is a consultant for HealthCore. Dr. Aran is a consutlant for Anthem Innovation Israel. None of the authors have any competing interests. Ethics Approval Statement: This study was designed as an analysis based on medical claims data, and there was no active enrollment or active follow-up of study subjects, and no data were collected directly from individuals. The study was not required to obtain additional IRB approval, as the HIPAA Privacy Rule permits protected health information (PHI) in a limited data set to be used or disclosed for research, without individual authorization, if certain criteria are met.

Background: Evidence suggests that natural antibodies developed after HPV16 infection may protect some women but not men against subsequent HPV16 reacquisition. Less is known whether antibodies developed following HPV16 infection are protective among men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: Four hundred seventy-five MSM from the Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men (HIM) study were tested for serum antibodies to HPV16 L1 using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, and for anal and genital HPV16 DNA using PCR consensus primer system (PGMY 09/11). Adjusted Cox regression was used to evaluate whether baseline HPV16 seropositivity impacts subsequent genital or anal HPV16 DNA. Results: The risk of subsequent genital HPV16 [aHR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.66–1.68] and anal HPV16 infections among MSM (aHR = 2.34, 95% CI = 0.92–5.98) was similar or nonsignificantly higher in HPV16-seropositive than HPV16-seronegative MSM. The risk of genital HPV16 was also similar between HPV16-seronegative and HPV16-seropositive MSM in the highest tertile of HPV16 antibody levels and when restricting to those with new sex partners during follow-up (P > 0.20). Among the 118 MSM who were HPV16 seropositive, 90% remained HPV16 seropositive up to 4 years later. When tested together, MSM with the highest antibody titers (top tertile) had similar levels to females (mean = 130.3 vs. 134.5 EU/mL, P = 0.84). Conclusions: Despite years of HPV16 seropositivity persistence and antibody titers comparable with females, this study suggested no evidence of HPV16 natural antibodies protecting against subsequent genital or anal HPV16 infection in MSM. Impact: This could help partially explain the high incidence of genital and anal HPV16 infection and related anal cancer seen in middle-aged and older MSM. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(4); 496–502. ©2018 AACR.

BACKGROUND Oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related oropharyngeal cancer are uncommon in lower-income countries, particularly compared to HPV-associated cervical cancer. However, little is known about the natural history of oral HPV in less-developed settings and how it compares to the natural history of cervical HPV. METHODS Three hundred fifty women aged 22 to 33 years from the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial provided exfoliated cells from the cervical and oral regions at 2 visits 2 years apart. Samples from both visits were tested for 25 characterized α HPV types by the SPF10 PCR-DNA enzyme immunoassay-LiPA25 version 1 system. Risk factors for oral HPV persistence were calculated utilizing generalized estimating equations with a logistic link. RESULTS Among the 82 women with characterized α oral HPV DNA detected at baseline, 14 persisted and were detected 2 years later (17.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 10.9-28.5%) and was similar to the persistence of α cervical HPV (40/223; 17.7%; 95% CI, 13.1-23.9%; P = 0.86). Acquisition of new α oral HPV type was low; incident infection (1.7%; 95% CI, 0.6-3.7%). CONCLUSIONS Oral HPV DNA is uncommon in young women in Latin America, and often appears to clear within a few years at similar rates to cervical HPV.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), although strongly divergent results have been reported regarding the prevalence of HPV16 in different countries, whether this represents important differences in etiology remains unclear. Applying rigorous protocols for sample processing, we centrally evaluated 1420 head and neck tumors (533 oropharynx, 395 oral cavity and 482 larynx) from studies conducted in the US, Europe and Brazil for mucosal HPV DNA and p16INK4a expression to evaluate regional heterogeneity in the proportion of HPV16-associated OPSCC and other head and neck cancer, and to assess covariates associated with the risk of HPV16-positive OPSCC. While majority of OPSCC in the US (60%) were HPV16-positive, this proportion was 31% in Europe and only 4% in Brazil (p

Background Prostate cancer is a commonly studied outcome in administrative claims studies, but there is a dearth of validated case identifying algorithms. The long-term development of the disease increases the difficulty in separating prevalent from incident prostate cancer. The purpose of this validation study was to assess the accuracy of a claims algorithm to identify incident prostate cancer among men in commercial and Medicare Advantage US health plans. Methods We identified prostate cancer in claims as a prostate cancer diagnosis within 28 days after a prostate biopsy and compared case ascertainment in the claims with the gold standard results from the Georgia Comprehensive Cancer Registry (GCCR). Results We identified 74,008 men from a large health plan claims database for possible linkage with GCCR. Among the 382 prostate cancer cases identified in claims, 312 were also identified in the GCCR (positive predictive value [PPV] = 82%). Of the registry cases, 91% (95% confidence interval = 88, 94) were correctly identified in claims. Claims and registry diagnosis dates of prostate cancer matched exactly in 254/312 (81%) cases. Nearly half of the false-positive cases also had claims for prostate cancer treatment. Thirteen (43%) false-negative cases were classified as noncases by virtue of having a biopsy and diagnosis >28 days apart as required by the algorithm. Compared to matches, false-negative cases were older men with less aggressive prostate cancer. Conclusions Our algorithm demonstrated a PPV of 82% with 92% sensitivity in ascertaining incident PC. Administrative health plan claims can be a valuable and accurate source to identify incident prostate cancer cases.

Background Since 2006, routine HPV vaccination has been recommended for females aged 11–12 in the US. However not much is known about the extent of and factors associated with HPV vaccination after the ages of 11–12. Methods Provider-verified data on 8710 females aged 13–17 were analyzed from the 2013 NIS-Teen survey. 2013 Data was utilized since it was the first year one can fully evaluate the age at vaccination through age 17 for females who could receive the HPV vaccine at age 11. Results Among HPV vaccinated females who were 17 in 2013, 47% (95% CI=43–50%) received their first dose after age 12, and 24% (95% CI=21–26%) received their first dose after age 14. The HPV vaccine was more likely to be initiated later than the meningococcal and Tdap vaccines (p, Highlights • We examine the extent of and factors for later HPV vaccine initiation in US teens. • 47% of HPV vaccinated females received the vaccine after the ages of 11–12. • HPV vaccination was initiated later than other recommended vaccines. • Late initiation was more common among those with a higher social economic status. • Later initiators were less likely to receive all three doses of the HPV vaccine.

Aim: To calculate conditional power in comparative two-period studies with previously observed baseline data. Method: Isolate the variability attributable to the yet-to-observed data and modify the standard power formulae. Results: For illustration, we examine rates of opioid overdose before and after a reformulation of one opioid product. The null hypothesis posited no impact of the reformulation, alternative hypotheses posited possible impacts, and ancillary hypotheses posited different secular pre-post changes directly observable in comparators. Conditional power varied with the size of the comparator population and with the assumed pre-post change for the comparator. Conclusion: Pre-post designs can be initiated after the baseline period is over. Power calculations that are conditioned on observed baseline data account differently for variability in the baseline and follow-up periods.

Purpose Claims databases offer large populations for research, but lack clinical details. We aimed to develop predictive models to identify estrogen receptor positive (ER+) and human epidermal growth factor negative (HER2-) early breast cancer (ESBC) and advanced stage breast cancer (ASBC) in a claims database. Methods Female breast cancer cases in Anthem's Cancer Care Quality Program served as the gold standard validation sample. Predictive models were developed from clinical knowledge and empirically from claims data using logistic and lasso regression. Model performance was assessed by classification rates and c-statistics. Models were applied to the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (claims) to identify cohorts of women with ER+/HER2- ESBC and ASBC. Results The validation sample included 3184 women with ER+/HER2- ESBC and 1436 with ER+/HER2- ASBC. Predictive models for ER+/HER2- ESBC and ASBC included 25 and 20 factors, respectively. Models had robust discrimination in identifying cases (c-stat = 0.92 for ESBC and 0.95 for ASBC). Compared with a traditional a priori algorithm developed with clinical insight alone, the ER+/HER2- ASBC-predictive model had better positive predictive value (PPV) (0.91, 95% CI, 0.90-0.93, vs 0.69, 95% CI, 0.66-0.73) and sensitivity (0.54 vs 0.35). Models were applied to the claims database to identify cohorts of 33 001 and 3198 women with ER+/HER2- ESBC and ASBC. Conclusion We conducted a validation study and developed predictive models to identify in a claims database cohorts of women with ER+/HER2- ESBC and ASBC. The models identified large cohorts in the claims data that can be used to characterize indications in the evaluation of targeted therapies.

To describe patient and provider characteristics for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) initiating basal insulin and describe basal insulin's impact on sulfonylurea (SU) discontinuation.A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the HealthCore Integrated Research Database. Patients had ≥12 months of continuous coverage prior to initiating insulin, and were utilizing at least one anti-hyperglycemic drug at the time of insulin initiation. Predictors for SU discontinuation were evaluated utilizing Cox proportional hazards models.Among the 74,334 individuals aged ≥18 years with T2DM who initiated basal insulin from 2006-2015, 30% were taking metformin (MET) and SU when initiating insulin. Among the 22,418 MET/SU patients, 31% discontinued SU within 3 months of insulin initiation and, by 12 months, 55% had discontinued SU. Sulfonylurea discontinuation was similar among many patient and provider characteristics, while being modestly positively associated (p .05; HRs1.5) with female gender, more co-morbidities, cardiac revascularization, chronic liver disease, hospitalizations with a T2DM diagnosis, and hypoglycemia prior to insulin initiation. SU discontinuation was modestly inversely associated with receiving an insulin prescription from an endocrinologist (HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.85-0.95).Roughly half of commercially-insured T2DM patients discontinued SU within 1 year after insulin initiation, and SU discontinuation was not strongly associated with a range of patient and provider characteristics.

The association between oral human papillomavirus 16 (HPV16) DNA load and infection clearance was evaluated among 88 individuals with oral HPV16 infection who were identified within a prospective cohort of 1470 HIV-infected and uninfected individuals. Oral rinse specimens were collected semiannually for up to 5 years. The oral HPV16 load at the time of the first positive test result was significantly associated with the time to clearance of infection (continuous P trends

Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes the majority of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States, yet the risk factors for and natural history of oral HPV infection are largely unknown. In 2010-2011, a US-based longitudinal cohort study of 761 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected and 469 at-risk HIV-uninfected participants from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and the Women's Interagency HIV Study was initiated. Semiannually collected oral rinses were evaluated for 37 HPV genotypes using the Roche LINEAR ARRAY HPV Genotyping Test (Roche Molecular Systems, Pleasanton, California), and factors associated with oral HPV incidence and clearance were explored using adjusted Wei-Lin-Weissfeld modeling. Through 2013, the 2-year cumulative incidence of any type of oral HPV infection was 34% in HIV-infected persons and 19% in HIV-uninfected persons. However, many of these infections cleared. Seven percent of incident infections and 35% of prevalent infections persisted for at least 2 years. After adjustment for other risk factors, HIV infection (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.2), reduced current CD4 cell count, and increased numbers of oral sex and "rimming" partners increased the risk of incident oral HPV infection, whereas male sex, older age, and current smoking increased the risk of oral HPV persistence (each P < 0.05). This helps explain the consistent associations observed between these factors and prevalent oral HPV infection in previous cross-sectional studies.

Summary Objectives To examine the risk and trends of HPV-related and HPV-unrelated Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) in HIV-infected individuals and assess whether immunosuppression (measured through CD4 cell count) and other risk factors impact HNSCC risk. Materials and methods Incident HNSCCs at HPV-related and HPV-unrelated anatomic sites were detected in HIV-infected participants from pooled data from 17 prospective studies in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) between 1996 and 2009. HNSCC cases were validated using chart review or cancer registry matching. Risk factors for incident HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNSCC were explored using mixed effects Poisson regression in a full prospective analysis, and the effect of CD4 prior to cancer diagnosis was examined in a nested case control analysis. Results 66 HPV-related and 182 HPV-unrelated incident HNSCCs were detected among 82,375 HIV-infected participants. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for both HPV-related (SIR = 3.2, 95%CI = 2.5–3.4) and HPV-unrelated (SIR = 3.0, 95%CI = 2.5–4.1) HNSCC were significantly elevated in HIV-infected individuals compared with the US general population. Between 1996 and 2009, the age-standardized HPV-related HNSCC incidence increased non-significantly from 6.8 to 11.4 per 100,000 person-years ( p -trend = 0.31) while the age-standardized incidence of HPV-unrelated HNSCC decreased non-significantly from 41.9 to 29.3 per 100,000 person-years ( p -trend = 0.16). Lower CD4 cell count prior to cancer diagnosis was significantly associated with increased HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNSCC risk. Conclusion The standardized incidence of HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNSCC are both elevated in HIV-infected individuals. Immunosuppression may have a role in the development of both HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNSCC.

129 Background: Our main objective was to identify, in healthcare claims data, patients with advanced or metastatic: urothelial carcinoma (amUC), gastric cancer (amGC) and non-small cell lung cancer (amNSCLC) and to report on their characteristics, treatments, and survival rates using contemporaneous real-world data. Methods: This cohort study was conducted in the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD), from January 2010 to January 2018, which contains healthcare claims data from commercial health plans across the US (60 million lives). We applied algorithms, previously validated on registry data, to the HIRD to define 3 cohorts of advanced stage cancer. Cohort characteristics and treatment patterns were described. Patient vital status was captured through probabilistic linkage with the National Death Index (NDI) and survival was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Algorithms to predict advanced stage cancer resulted in the following cohorts: 1,501 amUC, 6,253 amGC and 38,451 amNSCLC cases. Most patients in each cohort were de novo advanced or metastatic, but subsets were diagnosed at early stage and progressed to advanced stage (ranging from 15.1% for amNSCLC to 23.1% for amUC). Patient characteristics, treatments and survival outcomes are described in Table 1. Not all received systemic treatment; Immune Checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) were used in 5.3%, 2.2% and 10.8% of treated amUC, amGC and amNSCLC patients, respectively. Conclusions: In these cohorts of advanced or metastatic cancer patients, median survival time was limited despite most receiving treatment: radiation, systemic therapy or surgery. Treatment with ICI was low despite recent data in amUC and amNSCLC.[Table: see text]

Background: Testosterone supplementation (TS) has dramatically increased in the United States (US). We conducted a study of TS and prostate cancer risk using a large US commercial insurance research database. Methods: From the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRDSM), we selected men aged 30 years or greater who were new users of TS during 2007-2015. We selected two male comparison groups: 1) unexposed (matched 10:1); 2) new users of a phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitor (PDE5i). Incident prostate cancer was defined as diagnosis of prostate cancer within four-weeks following prostate biopsy. Propensity scores and inverse probability of treatment weights were used in Poisson regression models to estimate adjusted incidence rates, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using doubly robust estimation. Subgroup analyses included stratification by prostate cancer screening, hypogonadism, and follow-up time. Results: The adjusted prostate cancer IRR was 0.77 (95%CI: 0.68, 0.86) when comparing TS with the unexposed group and 0.85 (95%CI: 0.79, 0.91) in comparison with the PDE5i group. Inverse associations between TS and prostate cancer were observed in a majority of subgroup analyses, although in both comparisons estimates generally attenuated with increasing time following initial exposure. Amongst TS users, duration of exposure was not associated with prostate cancer. Conclusion: In this study, men who received TS did not have a higher rate of prostate cancer compared with the unexposed or PDE5i comparison groups. The inverse association between TS and prostate cancer could be the result of residual confounding, contraindication bias, or undefined biologic effect. Citation Format: Michael B. Cook, Daniel C. Beachler, Lauren E. Parlett, Philip T. Cochetti, William D. Finkle, Stephan Lanes, Robert N. Hoover. Testosterone supplementation in relation to prostate cancer in a US commercial insurance claims database [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5050.

e13082 Background: Our main objective was to identify, in healthcare claims data, patients with advanced or metastatic: urothelial carcinoma (amUC), gastric cancer (amGC) and non-small cell lung cancer (amNSCLC) and to report on their characteristics, treatments, and survival rates using contemporaneous real-world data. Methods: This cohort study was conducted in the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD), from January 2010 to January 2018, which contains healthcare claims data from commercial health plans across the US (60 million lives). We applied algorithms, previously validated on registry data, to the HIRD to define 3 cohorts of advanced stage cancer. Cohort characteristics and treatment patterns were described. Patient vital status was captured through probabilistic linkage with the National Death Index (NDI) and survival was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Algorithms to predict advanced stage cancer resulted in the following cohorts: 1,501 amUC, 6,253 amGC and 38,451 amNSCLC cases. Most patients in each cohort were de novo advanced or metastatic, but subsets were diagnosed at early stage and progressed to advanced stage (ranging from 15.1% for amNSCLC to 23.1% for amUC). Patient characteristics, treatments and survival outcomes are described in Table. Not all received systemic treatment; Immune Checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) were used in 5.3%, 2.2% and 10.8% of treated amUC, amGC and amNSCLC patients, respectively. Conclusions: In these cohorts of advanced or metastatic cancer patients, median survival time was limited despite most receiving treatment: radiation, systemic therapy or surgery. Treatment with ICI was low despite recent data in amUC and amNSCLC. Characteristics, treatments, and survival from estimated advanced stage date. [Table: see text]

Purpose of review HIV-infected individuals are living longer due to effective antiretroviral therapy and may therefore have a greater opportunity to develop HPV-associated malignancies. This review describes the risk factors and burden of oral HPV infection and HPV-associated Head and Neck Cancer (HNC) among HIV-infected individuals.

This study aimed to assess the temporal trends in invasive cervical cancer (ICC) incidence rates among 21-25year-olds. US guidelines no longer recommend screening prior to age 21, and concerns have been raised that delayed screening initiation may increase ICC incidence among young women.This study utilized ICC incidence data from 18 US population-based cancer registries in SEER from 2000 to 2013 and Pap test prevalence data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System from 1996 to 2012. Trends were evaluated with annual percent changes (APCs) using Joinpoint regression.The prevalence of never having a Pap test before age 21 increased from 22.0% in 1996-2004 to 38.3% in 2006-2012 (APC=+5.48, 95%CI=+4.20, +7.50). Despite this decline in screening, ICC incidence among 21-23year olds significantly declined between 2000 and 13 (APC=-5.36, 95%CI=-7.83,-2.82), particularly from 2006 to 2013 (APC=-9.70, 95%CI=-15.79, -3.17). ICC incidence remained constant among 24-25year olds (APC=+0.45, 95%CI=-2.00, 2.97). Compared to women born in 1978-1985, women born in 1986-1991 had a higher prevalence of never receiving a Pap test prior to 21 (35.4% vs. 22.1%, p0.001), but a lower ICC incidence at 21-23 (0.98 vs. 1.55 per 100,000, p0.001).While US females born in 1986-1991 were less likely to receive a Pap test before age 21, diagnoses of ICC in the early 20s were rare and lower than for those born in earlier years. This provides reassurance that the updated guidelines to delay screening until 21 has not resulted in a population-level increase in ICC rates among young women.

Background: Recombinant bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) are growth factors utilized in lumbar arthrodeses. Limited data from randomized trials suggest that BMP may increase cancer risk. We sought to evaluate cancer risk and mortality following the use of BMP in lumbar arthrodesis. Methods: Within the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program-Medicare cohort, we conducted a case-cohort study of 7,278 individuals who were ≥65 years of age and had undergone a lumbar arthrodesis from 2004 to 2011. Of these patients, 3,627 were individuals in a 5% random subcohort of Medicare enrollees in SEER areas including 191 who developed cancer, and there were 3,651 individuals outside the subcohort who developed cancer. Weighted Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for cancer on the basis of exposure to BMP. Results: In the SEER-Medicare subcohort, 30.7% of individuals who underwent a lumbar arthrodesis received BMP. BMP was not associated with overall cancer risk in univariate analyses (HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.82 to 1.02]) or after adjustment for demographic characteristics, comorbidities, hospital size, history of cancer, and calendar year (adjusted HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.84 to 1.05]). Individual cancer types were also not significantly elevated (p > 0.05 for all) in BMP users compared with nonusers. In addition, BMP use was not associated with a new cancer in people who had cancer prior to undergoing lumbar arthrodesis (adjusted HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.71 to 1.52]) or with mortality after a cancer diagnosis (adjusted HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.93 to 1.19]). Conclusions: In a large population of elderly U.S. adults undergoing lumbar arthrodesis, BMP use was not associated with cancer risk or mortality. Level of Evidence: Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Objectives: \ud \ud To explore whether HPV-related biomarkers predict oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) survival similarly across different global regions, and to explore their prognostic utility among non-oropharyngeal (non-OP) head and neck cancers.\ud \ud Methods: \ud \ud Data from 1362 head and neck SCC (HNSCC) diagnosed 2002–2011 was used from epidemiologic studies in: Brazil (GENCAPO study, n = 388), U.S. (CHANCE study, n = 472), and Europe (ARCAGE study, n = 502). Tumors were centrally tested for p16INK4a and HPV16 DNA (by PCR). Risk of mortality was examined using Cox proportional hazard models.\ud \ud Results: \ud \ud There were 517 OPSCC and 845 non-OP HNSCC. Cases were primarily male (81%), ever smokers (91%), with median age of 58 years and median follow-up of 3.1 years (IQR = 1.4–5.9). Among OPSCC, the risk of mortality was significantly lower among 184 HPV-related (i.e., p16+/HPV16+) compared to 333 HPV-unrelated (p16- and/or HPV16-) cases (HR = 0.25, 95%CI = 0.18–0.34). Mortality was reduced among HPV-related OPSCC cases from the U.S., Europe, and Brazil (each p ⩽ 0.01) and after adjustment, remained significantly reduced (aHR = 0.34, 95%CI = 0.24–0.49). Among non-OP HNSCC, neither p16 (aHR = 0.83, 95%CI = 0.60–1.14), HPV16 DNA (aHR = 1.20, 95%CI = 0.89–1.63), or p16+/HPV16+ (aHR = 0.59, 95%CI = 0.32–1.08) was a significantly predictor of mortality. When interaction was tested, the effect of HPV16/p16 was significantly different in OPSCC than non-OP HNSCC (p-interaction = 0.02).\ud \ud Conclusion: \ud \ud HPV-related OPSCCs had similar survival benefits across these three regions. Prognostic utility of HPV among non-OP HNSCC is limited so tumor HPV/p16 testing should not be routinely done among non-OP HNSCC.

Introduction: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is an important risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer. Individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have higher oral HPV prevalence but the risk factors for oral HPV infection are not well understood for either HIV-positive or HIV-negative individuals. Methods: This study was nested within the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS; men) and Women Interagency HIV Study (WIHS; women) cohorts. Exfoliated oral epithelial cells were collected from 379 HIV-positive and 266 at-risk HIV-negative individuals using a rinse and gargle with Scope mouthwash. Samples were tested for 36 types of HPV DNA using PGMY09/11 consensus primers and reverse line blot hybridization. Risk factors for oral HPV infection were explored using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations in this cross-sectional analysis. Results: Prevalent oral HPV infection was common (34%), including HPV16 infection in 5.7% of participants. HIV-positive individuals had increased odds of prevalent oral HPV infection compared with HIV-negative individuals [adjusted OR = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.6–2.8]. Risk factors for prevalent oral HPV differed in HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants. Among HIV-negative individuals, higher number of recent oral sex or rimming partners were strong risk factors for prevalent oral HPV infection (each Ptrend < 0.01). In contrast, among HIV-positive individuals, lower CD4 T-cell count (Ptrend < 0.001) and higher number of lifetime sexual partners (Ptrend = 0.03) were strong risk factors. Conclusions: Oral HPV prevalence was elevated in HIV-positive individuals after controlling for differences in cigarette smoking and sexual behavior, supporting the possibility that HIV may affect the natural history of oral HPV. Impact: Immunosuppression may contribute to increased persistence or progression of oral HPV infection. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 21(1); 122–33. ©2011 AACR.

BACKGROUND Studies have been mixed on whether naturally acquired human papillomavirus (HPV) antibodies may protect against subsequent HPV infection. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess whether naturally acquired HPV antibodies protect against subsequent genital HPV infection (ie, natural immunity). METHODS We searched the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for studies examining natural HPV immunity against subsequent genital type-specific HPV infection in female and male subjects. We used random-effects models to derive pooled relative risk (RR) estimates for each HPV type. RESULTS We identified 14 eligible studies that included >24,000 individuals from 18 countries that examined HPV natural immunity. We observed significant protection against subsequent infection in female subjects with HPV-16 (pooled RR, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, .50-.80) and HPV-18 (0.70; .43-.98) but not in male subjects (HPV-16: 1.22; .67-1.77 [P= .05 (test for heterogeneity)]; HPV-18: 1.50; .46-2.55; [P= .15]). We also observed type-specific protection against subsequent infection for a combined measure of HPV-6/11/31/33/35/45/52/58 in female subjects (pooled RR, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, .57-.92). Natural immunity was also evident in female subjects when analyses were restricted to studies that used neutralizing assays, used HPV persistence as an outcome, or reported adjusted analyses (each P< .05). CONCLUSIONS HPV antibodies acquired through natural infection provide modest protection against subsequent cervical HPV infection in female subjects.

BACKGROUND Previous Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (CVT) reports separately demonstrated vaccine efficacy against HPV16 and HPV18 (HPV16/18) infections at the cervical, anal, and oral regions; however, the combined overall multisite efficacy (protection at all three sites) and vaccine efficacy among women infected with HPV16 or HPV18 prior to vaccination are less known. METHODS Women age 18 to 25 years from the CVT were randomly assigned to the HPV16/18 vaccine (Cervarix) or a hepatitis A vaccine. Cervical, oral, and anal specimens were collected at the four-year follow-up visit from 4186 women. Multisite and single-site vaccine efficacies (VEs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed for one-time detection of point prevalent HPV16/18 in the cervical, anal, and oral regions four years after vaccination. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS The multisite woman-level vaccine efficacy was highest among "naive" women (HPV16/18 seronegative and cervical HPV high-risk DNA negative at vaccination) (vaccine efficacy = 83.5%, 95% CI = 72.1% to 90.8%). Multisite woman-level vaccine efficacy was also demonstrated among women with evidence of a pre-enrollment HPV16 or HPV18 infection (seropositive for HPV16 and/or HPV18 but cervical HPV16/18 DNA negative at vaccination) (vaccine efficacy = 57.8%, 95% CI = 34.4% to 73.4%), but not in those with cervical HPV16 and/or HPV18 DNA at vaccination (anal/oral HPV16/18 VE = 25.3%, 95% CI = -40.4% to 61.1%). Concordant HPV16/18 infections at two or three sites were also less common in HPV16/18-infected women in the HPV vaccine vs control arm (7.4% vs 30.4%, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS This study found high multisite vaccine efficacy among "naive" women and also suggests the vaccine may provide protection against HPV16/18 infections at one or more anatomic sites among some women infected with these types prior to HPV16/18 vaccination.

Individuals with human papillomavirus (HPV) infections can develop IgG antibodies to HPV proteins including the L1 capsid and E6 and E7 oncoproteins. Evidence on whether L1 antibodies reduce the risk of cervical HPV infection is mixed, but this has not been explored for oral HPV infections. Antibodies to HPV16's E6 oncoprotein have been detected in some oropharyngeal cancer cases years before cancer diagnosis, but it is unknown if these antibodies are associated with oral HPV16 DNA.Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays tested for serum antibodies to HPV16's L1 capsid in 463 HIV-infected and 293 HIV-uninfected adults, and for antibodies to recombinantly expressed E6 and E7 oncoproteins to HPV16 in 195 HIV-infected and 69 HIV-uninfected cancer-free participants at baseline. Oral rinse samples were collected semiannually for up to 3 years and tested for HPV DNA using PGMY 09/11 primers. Adjusted Poisson, logistic, and Wei-Lin-Weissfeld regression models were used.Human papillomavirus 16 L1 seroreactivity did not reduce the subsequent risk of incident oral HPV16 infection in unadjusted (hazard ratio, 1.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-3.3) or adjusted (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.1; 95% confidence interval, 0.41-3.0) analysis. Antibodies to HPV16 E6 and E7 oncoproteins were detected in 7.6% and 3.4% of participants, respectively, but they were not associated with baseline oral HPV16 DNA prevalence or oral HPV16 persistence (each P0.40).Naturally acquired HPV16 L1 antibodies did not reduce the risk of subsequent oral HPV16 infection. Human papillomavirus 16 E6 and E7 seropositivity was not a marker for oral HPV16 infection in this population without HPV-related cancer.

Summary Although most cervical human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) infections become undetectable within 1–2 years, persistent HPV16 causes half of all cervical cancers. We used a novel HPV whole-genome sequencing technique to evaluate an exceptionally large collection of 5,570 HPV16-infected case-control samples to determine whether viral genetic variation influences risk of cervical precancer and cancer. We observed thousands of unique HPV16 genomes; very few women shared the identical HPV16 sequence, which should stimulate a careful re-evaluation of the clinical implications of HPV mutation rates, transmission, clearance, and persistence. In case-control analyses, HPV16 in the controls had significantly more amino acid changing variants throughout the genome. Strikingly, E7 was devoid of variants in precancers/cancers compared to higher levels in the controls; we confirmed this in cancers from around the world. Strict conservation of the 98 amino acids of E7, which disrupts Rb function, is critical for HPV16 carcinogenesis, presenting a highly specific target for etiologic and therapeutic research.