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Nature-based solutions that use a counterfactual scenario depend heavily on the methodology used to determine the business as usual (BAU) case, i.e., the "baseline." Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) projects traditionally set baselines using a "reference area" as a control for estimating BAU deforestation and emissions in the treatment (project) area. While the REDD+ market is shifting from project-based to nested approaches as countries increase their efforts to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris agreement's global climate target, methodologies for allocating national baselines are not yet formalized and tested, despite an urgent need to scale the market. We present a novel method for mapping deforestation risk and allocating national forest reference emission levels (FREL) to projects: baseline allocation for assessed risk (BAAR). This approach provides a spatial predictor of future deforestation using a dynamic vector, and a method for allocating a FREL to differentiated risk areas at the project level. Here, we present BAAR using 34 REDD+ projects in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We demonstrate the importance of risk-based FREL allocations to balance fitness for purpose and scientific rigor. We show how BAAR can be used by governments to focus voluntary carbon market finance in areas at highest risk of imminent deforestation, while maintaining alignment with nationally determined contribution (NDC) goals., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Expansion of many tree species lags behind climate change projections. Extreme storms can rapidly overcome this lag, especially for coastal species, but how will storm-driven expansion shape intraspecific genetic variation? Do storms provide recruits only from the nearest sources, or from more distant sources? Answers to these questions have ecological and evolutionary implications, but empirical evidence is absent from the literature. In 2017, Hurricane Irma provided an opportunity to address this knowledge gap at the northern range limit of the neotropical black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) on the Atlantic coast of Florida, USA. We observed massive post-hurricane increases in beach-stranded A. germinans propagules at, and past, this species' present day range margin when compared to a previously surveyed nonhurricane year. Yet, propagule dispersal does not guarantee subsequent establishment and reproductive success (i.e., effective dispersal). We also evaluated prior effective dispersal along this coastline with isolated A. germinans trees identified beyond the most northern established population. We used 12 nuclear microsatellite loci to genotype 896 hurricane-driven drift propagules from nine sites and 10 isolated trees from four sites, determined their sources of origin, and estimated dispersal distances. Almost all drift propagules and all isolated trees came from the nearest sources. This research suggests that hurricanes are a prerequisite for poleward range expansion of a coastal tree species and that storms can shape the expanding gene pool by providing almost exclusively range-margin genotypes. These insights and empirical estimates of hurricane-driven dispersal distances should improve our ability to forecast distributional shifts of coastal species., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change is driving the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by shifting the range edges of numerous species poleward. Over the past few decades, mangroves have rapidly displaced salt marshes near multiple poleward mangrove range limits, including in northeast Florida. It is uncertain whether such mangrove expansions are due to anthropogenic climate change or natural climate variability. We combined historical accounts from books, personal journals, scientific articles, logbooks, photographs, and maps with climate data to show that the current ecotone between mangroves and salt marshes in northeast Florida has shifted between mangrove and salt marsh dominance at least 6 times between the late 1700s and 2017 due to decadal-scale fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events. Model projections of daily minimum temperature from 2000 through 2100 indicate an increase in annual minimum temperature by 0.5 °C/decade. Thus, although recent mangrove range expansion should indeed be placed into a broader historical context of an oscillating system, climate projections suggest that the recent trend may represent a more permanent regime shift due to the effects of climate change., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Climate change-driven shifts in species ranges are ongoing and expected to increase. However, life-history traits may interact with climate to influence species ranges, potentially accelerating or slowing range shifts in response to climate change. Tropical mangroves have expanded their ranges poleward in the last three decades. Here, we report on a shift at the range edge in life-history traits related to reproduction and dispersal. With a common garden experiment and field observations, we show that Rhizophora mangle individuals from northern populations reproduce at a younger age than those from southern populations. In a common garden at the northern range limit, 38% of individuals from the northernmost population were reproductive by age 2, but less than 10% of individuals from the southernmost population were reproductive by the same age, with intermediate amounts of reproduction from intermediate latitudes. Field observations show a similar pattern of younger reproductive individuals toward the northern range limit. We also demonstrate a shift toward larger propagule size in populations at the leading range edge, which may aid seedling growth. The substantial increase in precocious reproduction at the leading edge of the R. mangle range could accelerate population growth and hasten the expansion of mangroves into salt marshes.

Although mangroves possess a variety of morphological and physiological adaptations for life in a stressful habitat, interspecific differences in survival and growth under different environmental conditions can shape their local and geographic distributions. Soil salinity and light are known to affect mangrove performance, often in an interactive fashion. It has also been hypothesized that mangroves are intrinsically shade intolerant due to the high physiological cost of coping with saline flooded soils. To evaluate the relationship between stress tolerance and species distributions, we compared responses of seedlings of three widespread mangrove species and one narrow endemic mangrove species in a factorial array of light levels and soil salinities in an outdoor laboratory experiment. The more narrowly distributed species was expected to exhibit a lower tolerance of potentially stressful conditions. Two of the widespread species, Avicennia germinans and Lumnitzera racemosa, survived and grew well at low-medium salinity, regardless of light level, but performed poorly at high salinity, particularly under high light. The third widespread species, Rhizophora mangle, responded less to variation in light and salinity. However, at high salinity, its relative growth rate was low at every light level and none of these plants flushed leaves. As predicted, the rare species, Pelliciera rhizophorae, was the most sensitive to environmental stressors, suffering especially high mortality and reduced growth and quantum yield under the combined conditions of high light and medium-high salinity. That it only thrives under shaded conditions represents an important exception to the prevailing belief that halophytes are intrinsically constrained to be shade intolerant.

Mangroves are an ecological assemblage of trees and shrubs adapted to grow in intertidal environments along tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate coasts. Despite repeated demonstrations of their ecologic and economic value, multiple stressors including nutrient over-enrichment threaten these and other coastal wetlands globally. These ecosystems will be further stressed if tropical storm intensity and frequency increase in response to global climate changes. These stressors will likely interact, but the outcome of that interaction is uncertain. Here, we examined potential interaction between nutrient over-enrichment and the September 2004 hurricanes. Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne made landfall along Florida's Indian River Lagoon and caused extensive damage to a long-term fertilization experiment in a mangrove forest, which previously revealed that productivity was nitrogen (N) limited across the forest and, in particular, that N enrichment dramatically increased growth rates and aboveground biomass of stunted Avicennia germinans trees in the interior scrub zone. During the hurricanes, these trees experienced significant defoliation with three to four times greater reduction in leaf area index (LAI) than control trees. Over the long-term, the +N scrub trees took four years to recover compared to two years for controls. In the adjacent fringe and transition zones, LAI was reduced by > 70%, but with no differences based on zone or fertilization treatment. Despite continued delayed mortality for at least five years after the storms, LAI in the fringe and transition returned to pre-hurricane conditions in two years. Thus, nutrient over-enrichment of the coastal zone will increase the productivity of scrub mangroves, which dominate much of the mangrove landscape in Florida and the Caribbean; however, that benefit is offset by a decrease in their resistance and resilience to hurricane damage that has the potential to destabilize the system.

Invasive plants may compete with native plants by increasing the pressure of native consumers, a mechanism known as "apparent competition." Apparent competition can be as strong as or stronger than direct competition, but the role of apparent competition has rarely been examined in biological invasions. We used four years of demographic data and seed-removal experiments to determine if introduced grasses caused elevated levels of seed consumption on native plant species in a coastal dune system in California, USA. We show that the endangered, coastal dune plant Lupinus tidestromii experiences high levels of pre-dispersal seed consumption by the native rodent Peromyscus maniculatus due to its proximity to the invasive grass, Ammophila arenaria. We use stage-structured, stochastic population models to project that two of three study populations will decline toward extinction under ambient levels of consumption. For one of these declining populations, a relatively small decrease in consumption pressure should allow for persistence. We show that apparent competition with an invasive species significantly decreases the population growth rate and persistence of a native species. We expect that apparent competition is an important mechanism in other ecosystems because invasive plants often change habitat structure and plant-consumer interactions. Possible implications of the apparent-competition mechanism include selective extinction of species preferred by seed consumers in the presence of an invasive species and biological homogenization of communities toward non-preferred native plant species.