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9. Sea Level Acceleration U.S. East Coast

Author

Dangendorf, Soenke

Subjects
Sea Level Acceleration
Abstract

Contains scripts and data to compute nonlinear sea-level rates and significance of acceleration as described in: Dangendorf et al. (2023): Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified by Internal Climate Variability, Nature Communications Note that you need the ssatrend tool from Aslak Grinsted ( https://sites.google.com/a/glaciology.net/grinsted/software/ssatrend-m ) to run the scripts

Published
2023
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14. Global sea-level budget 1993–present

Author

Group, WCRP Global Sea Level Budget, Cazenave, Anny, Meyssignac, Benoit, Ablain, Michael, Balmaseda, Magdalena, Bamber, Jonathan, Barletta, Valentina Roberta, Beckley, Brian, Benveniste, Jérôme, Berthier, Etienne, Blazquez, Alejandro, Boyer , Tim, Caceres , Denise, Chambers, Don P., Champollion, Nicolas, Chao , Ben, Chen , Jianli, Cheng , Lijing, Church , John A., Chuter, Stephen, Cogley , J. Graham, Dangendorf , Soenke, Desbruyères , Damien, Döll , Petra, Domingues, Catia, Falk , Ulrike, Famiglietti , James, Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana, Forsberg, René, Galassi , Gaia, Gardner, Alex, Groh, Andreas, Hamlington , Benjamin, Hogg, Anna, Horwath, Martin, Humphrey , Vincent, Husson , Laurent, Ishii , Masayoshi, Jaeggi , Adrian, Jevrejeva , Svetlana, Johnson , Gregory, Kolodziejczyk , Nicolas, Kusche , Jürgen, Lambeck , Kurt, Landerer , Felix, Leclercq , Paul, Legresy , Benoit, Leuliette , Eric, Llovel, William, Longuevergne , Laurent, Loomis , Bryant D., Luthcke, Scott B, Marcos, Marta, Marzeion , Ben, Merchant , Chris, Merrifield , Mark, Milne, Glenn, Mitchum , Gary, Mohajerani, Yara, Monier , Maeva, Monselesan , Didier, Nerem , Steve, Palanisamy , Hindumathi, Paul, Frank, Pérez, Begona, Piecuch , Christopher G., Ponte , Rui M., Purkey , Sarah G., Reager , John T., Rietbroek , Roelof, Rignot, Eric, Riva, Riccardo, Roemmich , Dean H., Sørensen, Louise Sandberg, Sasgen, Ingo, Schram, E.J.O., Seneviratne , Sonia I., Shum, C.K., Spada, Giorgio, Stammer, Detlef, van de Wal , Roderic, Velicogna, Isabella, von Schuckmann, Karina, Wada, Yoshihide, Wang , Yiguo, Watson, Christopher S., Wiese, David, Wijffels , Susan, Westaway , Richard, Woppelmann, Guy, Wouters, Bert, Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), International Space Science Institute [Bern] (ISSI), Géosciences Rennes (GR), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Universität Siegen [Siegen], Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - Brest (IFREMER Centre de Bretagne), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), National Oceanographic Centre [Liverpool] (NOC ), Australian National University (ANU), CSIRO Marine and Atmosphere Research [Hobart], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancats (IMEDEA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB), University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés - UMRi 7266 (LIENSs), Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Hubrecht Institute [Utrecht, Netherlands], University Medical Center [Utrecht]-Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES), Cazenave, Anny, Meyssignac, Benoit, Ablain, Michael, Balmaseda, Magdalena, Bamber, Jonathan, Barletta, Valentina, Beckley, Brian, Benveniste, Jérôme, Berthier, Etienne, Blazquez, Alejandro, Boyer, Tim, Caceres, Denise, Chambers, Don, Champollion, Nicola, Chao, Ben, Chen, Jianli, Cheng, Lijing, Church, John A., Chuter, S., Cogley, J., Dangendorf, Soenke, Desbruyères, Damien, Döll, Petra, Domingues, Catia, Falk, Ulrike, Famiglietti, Jame, Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana, Forsberg, Rene, Galassi, Gaia, Gardner, Alex, Groh, Andrea, Hamlington, Benjamin, Hogg, Anna, Horwath, Martin, Humphrey, Vincent, Husson, Laurent, Ishii, Masayoshi, Jaeggi, Adrian, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Johnson, Gregory, Kolodziejczyk, Nicola, Kusche, Jürgen, Lambeck, Kurt, Landerer, Felix, Leclercq, Paul, Legresy, Benoit, Leuliette, Eric, Llovel, William, Longuevergne, Laurent, Loomis, Bryant D., Luthcke, Scott B., Marcos, Marta, Marzeion, Ben, Merchant, Chri, Merrifield, Mark, Milne, Glenn, Mitchum, Gary, Mohajerani, Yara, Monier, Maeva, Monselesan, Didier, Nerem, Steve, Palanisamy, Hindumathi, Paul, Frank, Perez, Begoña, Piecuch, Christopher G., Ponte, Rui M., Purkey, Sarah G., Reager, John T., Rietbroek, Roelof, Rignot, Eric, Riva, Riccardo, Roemmich, Dean H., Sandberg Sørensen, Louise, Sasgen, Ingo, Schrama, E. J. O., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Shum, C. K., Spada, Giorgio, Stammer, Detlef, van de Wal, Roderic, Velicogna, Isabella, von Schuckmann, Karina, Wada, Yoshihide, Wang, Yiguo, Watson, Christopher, Wiese, David, Wijffels, Susan, Westaway, Richard, Woppelmann, Guy, and Wouters, Bert

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Context (language use), sea level, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Deep sea, SDG 13 - Climate Action, sea level, sea level change, gauge records, 14. Life underwater, Altimeter, Sea level, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 520 Astronomy, Global warming, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Glacier, lcsh:Geology, 13. Climate action, Climatology, gauge records, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, GlobalMass, Ice sheet, sea level change
Abstract

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g., acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitledRegional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts, an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the objective of assessing the various datasets used to estimate components of the sea-level budget during the altimetry era (1993 to present). These datasets are based on the combination of a broad range of space-based and in situ observations, model estimates, and algorithms. Evaluating their quality, quantifying uncertainties and identifying sources of discrepancies between component estimates is extremely useful for various applications in climate research. This effort involves several tens of scientists from about 50 research teams/institutions worldwide (www.wcrp-climate.org/grand-challenges/gc-sea-level, last access: 22 August 2018). The results presented in this paper are a synthesis of the first assessment performed during 2017–2018. We present estimates of the altimetry-based global mean sea level (average rate of 3.1 ± 0.3 mm yr−1and acceleration of 0.1 mm yr−2over 1993–present), as well as of the different components of the sea-level budget (http://doi.org/10.17882/54854, last access: 22 August 2018). We further examine closure of the sea-level budget, comparing the observed global mean sea level with the sum of components. Ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica contribute 42 %, 21 %, 15 % and 8 % to the global mean sea level over the 1993–present period. We also study the sea-level budget over 2005–present, using GRACE-based ocean mass estimates instead of the sum of individual mass components. Our results demonstrate that the global mean sea level can be closed to within 0.3 mm yr−1(1σ). Substantial uncertainty remains for the land water storage component, as shown when examining individual mass contributions to sea level.

Published
2018

15. Global sea-level budget 1993-present

Author

Cazenave, Anny, Meyssignac, Benoit, Ablain, Michael, Balmaseda, Magdalena, Bamber, Jonathan, Barletta, Valentina, Beckley, Brian, Benveniste, Jerome, Berthier, Etienne, Blazquez, Alejandro, Boyer, Tim, Caceres, Denise, Chambers, Don, Champollion, Nicolas, Chao, Ben, Chen, Jianli, Cheng, Lijing, Church, John A., Chuter, Stephen, Cogley, J. Graham, Dangendorf, Soenke, Desbruyeres, Damien, Doell, Petra, Domingues, Catia, Falk, Ulrike, Famiglietti, James, Fenoglio-marc, Luciana, Forsberg, Rene, Galassi, Gaia, Gardner, Alex, Groh, Andreas, Hamlington, Benjamin, Hogg, Anna, Horwath, Martin, Humphrey, Vincent, Husson, Laurent, Ishii, Masayoshi, Jaeggi, Adrian, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Johnson, Gregory, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, Kusche, Juergen, Lambeck, Kurt, Landerer, Felix, Leclercq, Paul, Legresy, Benoit, Leuliette, Eric, Llovel, William, Longuevergne, Laurent, Loomis, Bryant D., Luthcke, Scott B., Marcos, Marta, Marzeion, Ben, Merchant, Chris, Merrifield, Mark, Milne, Glenn, Mitchum, Gary, Mohajerani, Yara, Monier, Maeva, Monselesan, Didier, Nerem, Steve, Palanisamy, Hindumathi, Paul, Frank, Perez, Begona, Piecuch, Christopher G., Ponte, Rui M., Purkey, Sarah G., Reager, John T., Rietbroek, Roelof, Rignot, Eric, Riva, Riccardo, Roemmich, Dean H., Sorensen, Louise Sandberg, Sasgen, Ingo, Schrama, E. J. O., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Shum, C. K., Spada, Giorgio, Stammer, Detlef, Van De Wal, Roderic, Velicogna, Isabella, Von Schuckmann, Karina, Wada, Yoshihide, Wang, Yiguo, Watson, Christopher, Wiese, David, Wijffels, Susan, Westaway, Richard, Woppelmann, Guy, Wouters, Bert, Cazenave, Anny, Meyssignac, Benoit, Ablain, Michael, Balmaseda, Magdalena, Bamber, Jonathan, Barletta, Valentina, Beckley, Brian, Benveniste, Jerome, Berthier, Etienne, Blazquez, Alejandro, Boyer, Tim, Caceres, Denise, Chambers, Don, Champollion, Nicolas, Chao, Ben, Chen, Jianli, Cheng, Lijing, Church, John A., Chuter, Stephen, Cogley, J. Graham, Dangendorf, Soenke, Desbruyeres, Damien, Doell, Petra, Domingues, Catia, Falk, Ulrike, Famiglietti, James, Fenoglio-marc, Luciana, Forsberg, Rene, Galassi, Gaia, Gardner, Alex, Groh, Andreas, Hamlington, Benjamin, Hogg, Anna, Horwath, Martin, Humphrey, Vincent, Husson, Laurent, Ishii, Masayoshi, Jaeggi, Adrian, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Johnson, Gregory, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, Kusche, Juergen, Lambeck, Kurt, Landerer, Felix, Leclercq, Paul, Legresy, Benoit, Leuliette, Eric, Llovel, William, Longuevergne, Laurent, Loomis, Bryant D., Luthcke, Scott B., Marcos, Marta, Marzeion, Ben, Merchant, Chris, Merrifield, Mark, Milne, Glenn, Mitchum, Gary, Mohajerani, Yara, Monier, Maeva, Monselesan, Didier, Nerem, Steve, Palanisamy, Hindumathi, Paul, Frank, Perez, Begona, Piecuch, Christopher G., Ponte, Rui M., Purkey, Sarah G., Reager, John T., Rietbroek, Roelof, Rignot, Eric, Riva, Riccardo, Roemmich, Dean H., Sorensen, Louise Sandberg, Sasgen, Ingo, Schrama, E. J. O., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Shum, C. K., Spada, Giorgio, Stammer, Detlef, Van De Wal, Roderic, Velicogna, Isabella, Von Schuckmann, Karina, Wada, Yoshihide, Wang, Yiguo, Watson, Christopher, Wiese, David, Wijffels, Susan, Westaway, Richard, Woppelmann, Guy, and Wouters, Bert

Abstract

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the objective of assessing the various datasets used to estimate components of the sea-level budget during the altimetry era (1993 to present). These datasets are based on the combination of a broad range of space-based and in situ observations, model estimates, and algorithms. Evaluating their quality, quantifying uncertainties and identifying sources of discrepancies between component estimates is extremely useful for various applications in climate research. This effort involves several tens of scientists from about 50 research teams/institutions worldwide (www.wcrp-climate.org/grand-challenges/gc-sea-level, last access: 22 August 2018). The results presented in this paper are a synthesis of the first assessment performed during 2017-2018. We present estimates of the altimetry-based global mean sea level (average rate of 3.1 +/- 0.3mm yr(-1) and acceleration of 0.1 mm yr(-2) over 1993-present), as well as of the different components of the sea-level budget (http://doi.org/10.17882/54854, last access: 22 August 2018). We further examine closure of the sea-level budget, comparing the observed global mean sea level with the sum of components. Ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica contribute 42%, 21%, 15% and 8% to the global mean sea level over the 1993-present period. We also study t

Published
2018
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16. The exceptional influence of storm 'Xaver' on design water levels in the German Bight

Author

Dangendorf, Soenke, Arns, Arne, Pinto, Joaquim G., Ludwig, Patrick, Jensen, Juergen, Dangendorf, Soenke, Arns, Arne, Pinto, Joaquim G., Ludwig, Patrick, and Jensen, Juergen

Abstract

Design water levels for coastal structures are usually estimated based on extreme value statistics. Since their robustness depends heavily on the sample size of observations, regular statistical updates are needed, especially after extreme events. Here, we demonstrate the exceptional influence of such an event based on storm 'Xaver', which caused record breaking water levels for large parts of the southwestern German North Sea coastline on 6 December 2013. We show that the water level estimates for a 1 in 200 years event increased by up to 40 cm due to the update after 'Xaver', a value twice as large as the estimated regional sea level rise for the entire 20th century. However, a thorough analysis of different independent meteorological (winds and pressure) and oceanographic components (tides, surges, mean sea level (MSL) anomalies) driving the event reveals that their observed combination does not yet represent the physically possible worst case scenario. Neither tides, nor surges nor MSL anomalies were at their observational maximum, suggesting that there is a realistic risk of a storm like 'Xaver' to cause even higher extreme water levels by a few decimetres under current climate conditions. Our results question purely statistical design approaches of coastal structures, which neglect the physical boundary conditions of individual extreme events.

Published
2016

17. North Sea Storminess from a Novel Storm Surge Record since AD 1843

Author

Dangendorf, Soenke, Müller-Navarra, Sylvin, Jensen, Juergen, Schenk, Frederik, Wahl, Thomas, Weisse, Ralf, Dangendorf, Soenke, Müller-Navarra, Sylvin, Jensen, Juergen, Schenk, Frederik, Wahl, Thomas, and Weisse, Ralf

Abstract

The detection of potential long-term changes in historical storm statistics and storm surges plays a vitally important role for protecting coastal communities. In the absence of long homogeneous wind records, the authors present a novel, independent, and homogeneous storm surge record based on water level observations in the North Sea since 1843. Storm surges are characterized by considerable interannual-to-decadal variability linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Time periods of increased storm surge levels prevailed in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries without any evidence for significant long-term trends. This contradicts with recent findings based on reanalysis data, which suggest increasing storminess in the region since the late nineteenth century. The authors compare the wind and pressure fields from the Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CRv2) with the storm surge record by applying state-of-the-art empirical wind surge formulas. The comparison reveals that the reanalysis is a valuable tool that leads to good results over the past 100 yr; previously the statistical relationship fails, leaving significantly lower values in the upper percentiles of the predicted surge time series. These low values lead to significant upward trends over the entire investigation period, which are in turn supported by neither the storm surge record nor an independent circulation index based on homogeneous pressure readings. The authors therefore suggest that these differences are related to higher uncertainties in the earlier years of the 20CRv2 over the North Sea region., QC 20140624

Published
2014
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18. Global sea-level budget 1993-present

Author

Cazenave, Anny, Meyssignac, Benoit, Ablain, Michael, Balmaseda, Magdalena, Bamber, Jonathan, Barletta, Valentina, Beckley, Brian, Benveniste, Jerome, Berthier, Etienne, Blazquez, Alejandro, Boyer, Tim, Cáceres, Denise, Chambers, Don, Champollion, Nicolas, Chao, Ben, Chen, Jianli, Cheng, Lijing, Church, John A., Chuter, Stephen, Cogley, J. Graham, Dangendorf, Soenke, Desbruyères, Damien, Döll, Petra, Domingues, Catia, Falk, Ulrike, Famiglietti, James, Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana, Forsberg, Rene, Galassi, Gaia, Gardner, Alex, Groh, Andreas, Hamlington, Benjamin, Hogg, Anna, Horwath, Martin, Humphrey, Vincent, Husson, Laurent, Ishii, Masayoshi, Jäggi, Adrian, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Johnson, Gregory C., Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, Kusche, Jürgen, Lambeck, Kurt, Landerer, Felix, Leclercq, Paul W., Legresy, Benoit, Leuliette, Eric, Llovel, William, Longuevergne, Laurent, Loomis, Bryant D., Luthcke, Scott B., Marcos, Marta, Marzeion, Ben, Merchant, Chris, Merrifield, Mark, Milne, Glenn, Mitchum, Gary, Mohajerani, Yara, Monier, Maeva, Monselesan, Didier, Nerem, Steve, Palanisamy, Hindumathi, Paul, Frank, Perez, Begoña, Piecuch, Christopher G., Ponte, Rui M., Purkey, Sarah G., Reager, John T., Rietbroek, Roelof, Rignot, Eric, Riva, Riccardo, Roemmich, Dean, Sørensen, Louise S., Sasgen, Ingo, Schrama, E.J.O., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Shum, C.K., Spada, Giorgio, Stammer, Detlef, Velicogna, Isabella, von Schuckmann, Karina, Wada, Yoshihide, Wang, Yiguo, Watson, Christopher, Wiese, David, Wijffels, Susan, Westaway, Richard, Woppelmann, Guy, and Wouters, Bert

Subjects
13. Climate action, 14. Life underwater
Abstract

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g., acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the objective of assessing the various datasets used to estimate components of the sea-level budget during the altimetry era (1993 to present). These datasets are based on the combination of a broad range of space-based and in situ observations, model estimates, and algorithms. Evaluating their quality, quantifying uncertainties and identifying sources of discrepancies between component estimates is extremely useful for various applications in climate research. This effort involves several tens of scientists from about 50 research teams/institutions worldwide (www.wcrp-climate.org/grand-challenges/gc-sea-level, last access: 22 August 2018). The results presented in this paper are a synthesis of the first assessment performed during 2017–2018. We present estimates of the altimetry-based global mean sea level (average rate of 3.1±0.3mmyr−1 and acceleration of 0.1mmyr−2 over 1993–present), as well as of the different components of the sea-level budget (http://doi.org/10.17882/54854, last access: 22 August 2018). We further examine closure of the sea-level budget, comparing the observed global mean sea level with the sum of components. Ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica contribute 42%, 21%, 15% and 8% to the global mean sea level over the 1993–present period. We also study the sea-level budget over 2005–present, using GRACE-based ocean mass estimates instead of the sum of individual mass components. Our results demonstrate that the global mean sea level can be closed to within 0.3mmyr−1 (1σ). Substantial uncertainty remains for the land water storage component, as shown when examining individual mass contributions to sea level., Earth System Science Data, 10 (3), ISSN:1866-3516, ISSN:1866-3508

19. Historical sea-level changes in Australia : testing the Arctic ice melt hypothesis

Author

Williams, Sophie Lauren, Gehrels, Willem Roland, Garrett, Edmund, Dangendorf, Soenke, Moss, Patrick Tobias, and Sole, Andrew

Abstract

Rates of regional and global sea-level rise during the 20th century were faster than in any century over the last 3000 years. Sea-level rise accelerated between ~1850 and ~1950, before greenhouse gases became the dominant forcing agent, which suggests, in part, a natural origin. The acceleration appears to have been more rapid in the Southern Hemisphere, which, according to geophysical theory, could point at a contribution from Northern Hemisphere land-based ice melt. More high-resolution relative sea level (RSL) reconstructions from the Southern Hemisphere are needed to test this hypothesis, and to complement a limited dataset of proxy and tide-gauge records. This study establishes three new RSL records for southeastern Australia (covering ~1830 - 2018) from analyses of salt-marsh sediments. New training sets of contemporary salt-marsh foraminifera were used for transfer-function analyses to derive palaeo sea-level estimates. High-resolution chronologies were established via Accelerator Mass Spectrometry radiocarbon, radiogenic lead, stable lead isotope ratios and pollen analyses. The new records demonstrate that, when corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment, sea level has risen by ~0.2 - 0.3 m since ~1830 in southeastern Australia. Rates of sea-level rise were especially high over the first half of the 20th century, with maximum average rates of 4.0 (-0.4 - 7.1 95 % confidence range) mm yr-1, but there is regional variability between sites. A modelled sea-level budget indicates that the acceleration was initially driven by the barystatic component (including gravity, rotation and deformation), but subsequently amplified and driven by sterodynamic sea-level change. An analysis of the sea-level fingerprints of the barystatic component to 20th century global sea-level rise points at a significant input from the Greenland (17 %) and Antarctic Ice Sheets (11 %) as well as glaciers in Alaska (14 %), the Russian Arctic (10 %), western Canada and the US (9 %), south Asia and southern Andes (8 % each).

Published
2021

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