Search

In numerical weather prediction (NWP), a large number of observations are used to create initial conditions for weather forecasting through a process known as data assimilation. An assessment of the value of these observations for NWP can guide us in the design of future observation networks, help us to identify problems with the assimilation system, and allow us to assess changes to the assimilation system. However, the assessment can be challenging in convection-permitting NWP. First, the strong nonlinearity in the forecast model limits the methods available for the assessment. Second, convection-permitting NWP typically uses a limited area model and provides short forecasts, giving problems with verification and our ability to gather sufficient statistics. Third, convection-permitting NWP often makes use of novel observations, which can be difficult to simulate in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). We compare methods that can be used to assess the value of observations in convection-permitting NWP and discuss operational considerations when using these methods. We focus on their applicability to ensemble forecasting systems, as these systems are becoming increasingly dominant for convection-permitting NWP. We also identify several future research directions: comparison of forecast validation using analyses and observations, the effect of ensemble size on assessing the value of observations, flow-dependent covariance localization, and generation and validation of the nature run in an OSSE., Comment: 35 pages

Recent studies have demonstrated improved skill in numerical weather prediction via the use of spatially correlated observation error covariance information in data assimilation systems. In this case, the observation weighting matrices (inverse error covariance matrices) used in the assimilation may be full matrices rather than diagonal. Thus, the computation of matrix-vector products in the variational minimization problem may be very time-consuming, particularly if the parallel computation of the matrix-vector product requires a high degree of communication between processing elements. Hence, we introduce a well-known numerical approximation method, called the fast multipole method (FMM), to speed up the matrix-vector multiplications in data assimilation. We explore a particular type of FMM that uses a singular value decomposition (SVD-FMM) and adjust it to suit our new application in data assimilation. By approximating a large part of the computation of the matrix-vector product, the SVD-FMM technique greatly reduces the computational complexity compared with the standard approach. We develop a novel possible parallelization scheme of the SVD-FMM for our application, which can reduce the communication costs. We investigate the accuracy of the SVD-FMM technique in several numerical experiments: we first assess the accuracy using covariance matrices that are created using different correlation functions and lengthscales; then investigate the impact of reconditioning the covariance matrices on the accuracy; and finally examine the feasibility of the technique in the presence of missing observations. We also provide theoretical explanations for some numerical results. Our results show that the SVD-FMM technique has potential as an efficient technique for assimilation of a large volume of observational data within a short time interval., Comment: 25 pages, 13 figures

Crowdsourced vehicle-based observations have the potential to improve forecast skill in convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP). The aim of this paper is to explore the characteristics of vehicle-based observations of air temperature. We describe a novel low-precision vehicle-based observation dataset obtained from a Met Office proof-of-concept trial. In this trial, observations of air temperature were obtained from built-in vehicle air-temperature sensors, broadcast to an application on the participant's smartphone and uploaded, with relevant metadata, to the Met Office servers. We discuss the instrument and representation uncertainties associated with vehicle-based observations and present a new quality-control procedure. It is shown that, for some observations, location metadata may be inaccurate due to unsuitable smartphone application settings. The characteristics of the data that passed quality-control are examined through comparison with United Kingdom variable-resolution model data, roadside weather information station observations, and Met Office integrated data archive system observations. Our results show that the uncertainty associated with vehicle-based observation-minus-model comparisons is likely to be weather-dependent and possibly vehicle-dependent. Despite the low precision of the data, vehicle-based observations of air temperature could be a useful source of spatially-dense and temporally-frequent observations for NWP.

Data assimilation algorithms combine prior and observational information, weighted by their respective uncertainties, to obtain the most likely posterior of a dynamical system. In variational data assimilation the posterior is computed by solving a nonlinear least squares problem. Many numerical weather prediction (NWP) centres use full observation error covariance (OEC) weighting matrices, which can slow convergence of the data assimilation procedure. Previous work revealed the importance of the minimum eigenvalue of the OEC matrix for conditioning and convergence of the unpreconditioned data assimilation problem. In this paper we examine the use of correlated OEC matrices in the preconditioned data assimilation problem for the first time. We consider the case where there are more state variables than observations, which is typical for applications with sparse measurements e.g. NWP and remote sensing. We find that similarly to the unpreconditioned problem, the minimum eigenvalue of the OEC matrix appears in new bounds on the condition number of the Hessian of the preconditioned objective function. Numerical experiments reveal that the condition number of the Hessian is minimised when the background and observation lengthscales are equal. This contrasts with the unpreconditioned case, where decreasing the observation error lengthscale always improves conditioning. Conjugate gradient experiments show that in this framework the condition number of the Hessian is a good proxy for convergence. Eigenvalue clustering explains cases where convergence is faster than expected., Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures

Recent developments in numerical weather prediction have led to the use of correlated observation error covariance (OEC) information in data assimilation and forecasting systems. However, diagnosed OEC matrices are often ill-conditioned and may cause convergence problems for variational data assimilation procedures. Reconditioning methods are used to improve the conditioning of covariance matrices while retaining correlation information. In this paper we study the impact of using the 'ridge regression' method of reconditioning to assimilate Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) observations in the Met Office 1D-Var system. This is the first systematic investigation of how changing target condition numbers affects convergence of a 1D-Var routine. This procedure is used for quality control, and to estimate key variables (skin temperature, cloud top pressure, cloud fraction) that are not analysed by the main 4D-Var data assimilation system. Our new results show that the current (uncorrelated) OEC matrix requires more iterations to reach convergence than any choice of correlated OEC matrix studied. This suggests that using a correlated OEC matrix in the 1D-Var routine would have computational benefits for IASI observations. Using reconditioned correlated OEC matrices also increases the number of observations that pass quality control. However, the impact on skin temperature, cloud fraction and cloud top pressure is less clear. As the reconditioning parameter is increased, differences between retrieved variables for correlated OEC matrices and the operational diagonal OEC matrix reduce. As correlated choices of OEC matrix yield faster convergence, using stricter convergence criteria along with these matrices may increase efficiency and improve quality control., Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables

High dimensional error covariance matrices and their inverses are used to weight the contribution of observation and background information in data assimilation procedures. As observation error covariance matrices are often obtained by sampling methods, estimates are often degenerate or ill-conditioned, making it impossible to invert an observation error covariance matrix without the use of techniques to reduce its condition number. In this paper we present new theory for two existing methods that can be used to 'recondition' any covariance matrix: ridge regression, and the minimum eigenvalue method. We compare these methods with multiplicative variance inflation. We investigate the impact of reconditioning on variances and correlations of a general covariance matrix in both a theoretical and practical setting. Improved theoretical understanding provides guidance to users regarding method selection, and choice of target condition number. The new theory shows that, for the same target condition number, both methods increase variances compared to the original matrix, with larger increases for ridge regression than the minimum eigenvalue method. We prove that the ridge regression method strictly decreases the absolute value of off-diagonal correlations. Theoretical comparison of the impact of reconditioning and multiplicative variance inflation on the data assimilation objective function shows that variance inflation alters information across all scales uniformly, whereas reconditioning has a larger effect on scales corresponding to smaller eigenvalues. The minimum eigenvalue method results in smaller overall changes to the correlation matrix than ridge regression, but can increase off-diagonal correlations. Data assimilation experiments reveal that reconditioning corrects spurious noise in the analysis but underestimates the true signal compared to multiplicative variance inflation., Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures