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The sixth mass extinction poses an unparalleled quantitative challenge to conservation biologists. Mathematicians and ecologists alike face the problem of developing models that can scale predictions of extinction rates from populations to the level of a species, or even to an entire ecosystem. We review some of the most basic stochastic and analytical methods of calculating extinction risk at different scales, including population viability analysis, stochastic metapopulation occupancy models, and the species area relationship. We also consider two major extensions of theory: the possibility of evolutionary rescue from extinction in a changing environment, and the posthumous assignment of an extinction date from sighting records. In the case of the latter, we provide a new example using data on Spix's macaw (Cyanopsitta spixii), the "rarest bird in the world," to demonstrate the challenges associated with extinction date research.

The sixth mass extinction poses an unparalleled quantitative challenge to conservation biologists. Mathematicians and ecologists alike face the problem of developing models that can scale predictions of extinction rates from populations to the level of a species, or even to an entire ecosystem. We review some of the most basic stochastic and analytical methods of calculating extinction risk at different scales, including population viability analysis, stochastic metapopulation occupancy models, and the species area relationship. We also consider two major extensions of theory: the possibility of evolutionary rescue from extinction in a changing environment, and the posthumous assignment of an extinction date from sighting records. In the case of the latter, we provide an example using data on Spix's macaw ( Cyanopsitta spixii ), the "rarest bird in the world," to demonstrate the challenges associated with extinction date research.

The sixth mass extinction poses an unparalleled quantitative challenge to conservation biologists. Mathematicians and ecologists alike face the problem of developing models that can scale predictions of extinction rates from populations to the level of a species, or even to an entire ecosystem. We review some of the most basic stochastic and analytical methods of calculating extinction risk at different scales, including population viability analysis, stochastic metapopulation occupancy models, and the species area relationship. We also consider two major extensions of theory: the possibility of evolutionary rescue from extinction in a changing environment, and the posthumous assignment of an extinction date from sighting records. In the case of the latter, we provide a new example using data on Spix's macaw ( Cyanopsitta spixii ), the "rarest bird in the world," to demonstrate the challenges associated with extinction date research.

Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences.

Broad‐scale assessments of plant–frugivore interactions indicate the existence of a latitudinal gradient in interaction specialization. The specificity (i.e. the similarity of the interacting partners) of plant–frugivore interactions could also change latitudinally given that differences in resource availability could favour species to become more or less specific in their interactions across latitudes.Species occurring in the tropics could be more taxonomically, phylogenetically and functionally specific in their interactions because of a wide range of resources that are constantly available in these regions that would allow these species to become more specialized in their resource usage.We used a data set on plant–avian frugivore interactions spanning a wide latitudinal range to examine these predictions, and we evaluated the relationship between latitude and taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional specificity of plant and frugivore interactions. These relationships were assessed using data on population interactions (population level), species means (species level) and community means (community level).We found that the specificity of plant–frugivore interactions is generally not different from null models. Although statistically significant relationships were often observed between latitude and the specificity of plant–frugivore interactions, the direction of these relationships was variable and they also were generally weak and had low explanatory power. These results were consistent across the three specificity measures and levels of organization, suggesting that there might be an interplay between different mechanisms driving the interactions between plants and frugivores across latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Communities that are farther away from one another in distance or time tend to be more dissimilar. These relationships are often referred to as 'distance–decay' relationships, relating compositional dissimilarity of communities to geographic distance or exploring compositional shifts through time at a single site. The data required to explore both relationships simultaneously – and their potential interactions – require standardized sampling through time across a set of geographically unique sites. We used data on five taxonomic groups sampled between 2013 and 2021 as part of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to explore evidence for geographic and temporal distance–decay relationships. Links between these relationships were explored by estimating the temporal consistency of geographic distance–decay relationships and estimating the strength of geographic patterns in temporal distance–decay relationships. Overall, we found evidence for geographic and temporal distance–decay relationships across the five studied taxa, but detected no temporal signal in geographic distance–decay relationships and no spatial signal in temporal distance–decay relationships. Together, this highlights that community composition changes across geographic and temporal gradients, but that the drivers of these changes may depend on different drivers at different scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-distance migration is energetically costly and often has a significant impact on bird health and condition. Therefore, understanding the health status of birds during long-distance migration is of ecological interest; however, obtaining invasive health measures is not always feasible or practical. Bird feathers can provide information about individual bird condition independent of invasive and expensive blood tests and have been used previously as indicators of condition, even long after the season of feather growth. Here, we investigated this question using 2 migratory songbirds in North America, Western Palm Warblers (Selophaga palmarum palmarum), which have conspicuous white patches on their tail feathers, and Gray Catbirds (Dumetella carolinensis), which have prominent daily growth bars on their tail feathers. Feathers were collected from birds captured on Jekyll Island, Georgia, during their fall migration. From the feathers we quantified the size of white patches on warbler rectrices and estimated growth bar length (as an index of feather growth rate) on catbird rectrices using image analysis. We also obtained 2 measures of bird health for each species: estimates of white blood cell abundance from blood smears (immune status) and size-corrected body mass (body condition). Analyses of feather traits and how they relate to bird health indicated that warblers (n = 42) with larger white patches had significantly higher body condition indices, although no association with white blood cell abundance, and catbirds (n = 27) with faster feather growth had significantly lower white blood cell abundance, but no association with body condition. Given the utility of these feather characteristics, our results suggest these metrics can be used to provide some insights into the biology of songbirds during one of the most critical portions of the annual cycle, migration. Received 14 November 2018. Accepted 2 April 2019. Key words: condition, Dumetella carolinensis, feather, growth bars, ptilochronology, Setophaga palmarum palmarum, white patch La migracion de larga distancia es energeticamente costosa y con frccucncia tiene impactos significativos en la salud y condicion de las aves. Por ello, entender el estatus de salud de las aves durante la migracion de larga distancia es de interes ecologico. Sin embargo, la obtencion dc mediciones invasivas dc su salud no siempre es posible o practice. Las plumas de las aves pueden proveer informacion acerca de la condicion individual de las aves de manera independiente de las pruebas de sangre invasivas y caras que se han utilizado previamente como indicadores de su condicion. aun mucho despues de la temporada de crecimiento de la pluma. Aqui investigamos esta cuestion usando dos pajaros migratorios de Norteamerica, el chipe Setophaga palmarum palmarum, que tiene parches blancos conspicuos en las plumas de su cola, y el maullador Dumetella carolinensis, que tiene prominentes barras de crecimiento en las plumas de su cola. Las plumas fueron colectadas de aves capturadas en Jekyll Island. Georgia, durante su migracion de otono. Usando analisis de imagenes, cuantificamos el tamano de los parches blancos en las rectrices del chipe y la longitud estimada de las barras dc crccimicnto (como un indice de la tasa de crccimicnto de la pluma) en las rectrices del maullador. Obtuvimos dos medidas de la salud del ave para cada especie: estimaciones de la abundancia de globules blancos en frotis dc sangre (estatus inmune) y masa corporal corregida a talla (condicion corporal). El analisis de las caracteristicas dc las plumas y como se relacionan con la salud del ave indican que los chipes (n = 42) con parches blancos mas grandes tenian indices de condicion corporal significativamente mas altos (aunque ninguna asociacion con la abundancia dc globulos blancos) y los maulladores (n = 27) con mas rapido crccimicnto de plumas tuvieron una abundancia de globulos blancos significativamente menor. aunque sin asociacion con la condicion corporal. Dada la utilidad de estas caracteristicas de las plumas, nuestros resultados sugieren que estas metricas pueden ser usadas para proveer informacion sobre la biologia de los pajaros durante la migracion. una de las mas criticas partes de su ciclo anual. Palabras clave: barras de crecimiento, condicion, parche blanco, plumas, ptilocronologia, Each year, millions of animals migrate long distances to track seasonal changes in resources and climate (Dingle 1996, Bovvlin et al. 2010). These lengthy journeys can be energetically costly, with [...]

Spatial biases are an intrinsic feature of occurrence data used in species distribution models (SDMs). Thinning species occurrences, where records close in the geographic or environmental space are removed from the modeling procedure, is an approach often used to address these biases. However, thinning occurrence data can also negatively affect SDM performance, given that the benefits of removing spatial biases might be outweighed by the detrimental effects of data loss caused by this approach. We used real and virtual species to evaluate how spatial and environmental thinning affected different performance metrics of four SDM methods. The occurrence data of virtual species were sampled randomly, evenly spaced, and clustered in the geographic space to simulate different types of spatial biases, and several spatial and environmental thinning distances were used to thin the occurrence data. Null datasets were also generated for each thinning distance where we randomly removed the same number of occurrences by a thinning distance and compared the results of the thinned and null datasets. We found that spatially or environmentally thinned occurrence data is no better than randomly removing them, given that thinned datasets performed similarly to null datasets. Specifically, spatial and environmental thinning led to a general decrease in model performances across all SDM methods. These results were observed for real and virtual species, were positively associated with thinning distance, and were consistent across the different types of spatial biases. Our results suggest that thinning occurrence data usually fails to improve SDM performance and that the use of thinning approaches when modeling species distributions should be considered carefully. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]