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We present a theory of belief dynamics that explains the interplay between internal beliefs in people's minds and beliefs of others in their external social environments. The networks of belief theory goes beyond existing theories of belief dynamics in three ways. First, it provides an explicit connection between belief networks in individual minds and belief dynamics on social networks. The connection, absent from most previous theories, is established through people's social beliefs or perceived beliefs of others. Second, the theory recognizes that the correspondence between social beliefs and others' actual beliefs can be imperfect, because social beliefs are affected by personal beliefs as well as by the actual beliefs of others. Past theories of belief dynamics on social networks do not distinguish between perceived and actual beliefs of others. Third, the theory explains diverse belief dynamics phenomena parsimoniously through the differences in attention and the resulting felt dissonances in personal, social, and external parts of belief networks. We implement our theoretical assumptions in a computational model within a statistical physics framework and derive model predictions. We find support for our theoretical assumptions and model predictions in two large survey studies ( N ₁ = 973, N ₂ = 669). We then derive insights about diverse phenomena related to belief dynamics, including group consensus and polarization, group radicalization, minority influence, and different empirically observed belief distributions. We discuss how the theory goes beyond different existing models of belief dynamics and outline promising directions for future research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Recent and potential future health-care users (i.e., the public) are important stakeholders in the transition toward environmentally sustainable healthcare. However, it remains unclear whether, according to the public, there is room for sustainable innovations in materials for plastic medical devices (PMD). This study explores preferences regarding conventional or bio-based PMD, and psychological mechanisms underlying these preferences. We administered two surveys among Dutch adults from a research panel. Results from the first survey (i.e., open-text survey on attitude elements; N Study1  = 66) served as input for the second survey (i.e., Likert-scale survey on beliefs, emotions, perceived control, social norms, trust, related to current and bio-based PMD, and health and age; N Study2  = 1001; M age  = 47.35; 54.4% female). The second survey was completed by 501 participants who, in the last two years, received care in which PMD were used, and 500 participants who did not. Cross-sectional psychological networks were estimated with data from the second study using the EBICglasso method. Results showed that participants preferred bio-based over conventional PMD, and this applied regardless of whether devices are used inside or outside of the body. Results also showed emotions play an important role, with emotions regarding bio-based PMD being strongly related to preference. Furthermore, comparing recent and potential future receivers of PMD revealed differences in preference but comparable relations between preference and other psychological variables. This study shows that receivers' perspectives should not be seen as potential barriers, but as additional motivation for transitioning toward sustainable healthcare. Recommendations for implementation are discussed., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

In this longitudinal research, we adopt a complexity approach to examine the temporal dynamics of variables related to compliance with behavioural measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Dutch participants (N = 2399) completed surveys with COVID-19-related variables five times over a period of 10 weeks (23 April-30 June 2020). With these data, we estimated within-person COVID-19 attitude networks containing a broad set of psychological variables and their relations. These networks display variables' predictive effects over time between measurements and contemporaneous effects during measurements. Results show (1) bidirectional effects between multiple variables relevant for compliance, forming potential feedback loops, and (2) a positive reinforcing structure between compliance, support for behavioural measures, involvement in the pandemic and vaccination intention. These results can explain why levels of these variables decreased throughout the course of the study. The reinforcing structure points towards potentially amplifying effects of interventions on these variables and might inform processes of polarization. We conclude that adopting a complexity approach might contribute to understanding protective behaviour in the initial phase of pandemics by combining different theoretical models and modelling bidirectional effects between variables. Future research could build upon this research by studying causality with interventions and including additional variables in the networks., (© 2022 The Authors. British Journal of Social Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society.)

This study examines how broad attitude networks are affected by tailored interventions aimed at variables selected based on their connectiveness with other variables. We first computed a broad attitude network based on a large-scale cross-sectional COVID-19 survey (N = 6,093). Over a period of approximately 10 weeks, participants were invited five times to complete this survey, with the third and fifth wave including interventions aimed at manipulating specific variables in the broad COVID-19 attitude network. Results suggest that targeted interventions that yield relatively strong effects on variables central to a broad attitude network have downstream effects on connected variables, which can be partially explained by the variables the interventions were aimed at. We conclude that broad attitude network structures can reveal important relations between variables that can help to design new interventions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Prior research into the relationship between attitudes and vaccination intention is predominantly cross-sectional and therefore does not provide insight into directions of relations. During the COVID-19 vaccines development and enrollment phase, we studied the temporal dynamics of COVID-19 vaccination intention in relation to attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines and the pandemic, vaccination in general, social norms and trust. The data are derived from a longitudinal survey study with Dutch participants from a research panel (N = 744; six measurements between December 2020 and May 2021; age 18-84 years [M = 53.32]) and analyzed with vector-autoregression network analyses. While cross-sectional results indicated that vaccination intention was relatively strongly related to attitudes toward the vaccines, results from temporal analyses showed that vaccination intention mainly predicted other vaccination-related variables and to a lesser extent was predicted by variables. We found a weak predictive effect from social norm to vaccination intention that was not robust. This study underlines the challenge of stimulating uptake of new vaccines developed during pandemics, and the importance of examining directions of effects in research into vaccination intention., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Skepticism toward childhood vaccines and genetically modified food has grown despite scientific evidence of their safety. Beliefs about scientific issues are difficult to change because they are entrenched within many interrelated moral concerns and beliefs about what others think. We propose a cognitive network model that estimates network ties between all interrelated beliefs to calculate the overall dissonance and interdependence. Using a probabilistic nationally representative longitudinal study, we test whether our model can be used to predict belief change and find support for our model's predictions: High network dissonance predicts subsequent belief change, and people are driven toward lower network dissonance. We show the advantages of measuring dissonance using the belief network structure compared to traditional measures. This study is the first to combine a unifying predictive model with an experimental intervention and to shed light on the dynamics of dissonance reduction leading to belief change.

Preventive behaviors are crucial to prevent the spread of the coronavirus causing COVID-19. We adopted a complex psychological systems approach to obtain a descriptive account of the network of attitudes and behaviors related to COVID-19. A survey study ( N = 1,022) was conducted with subsamples from the United Kingdom ( n = 502) and the Netherlands ( n = 520). The results highlight the importance of people's support for, and perceived efficacy of, the measures and preventive behaviors. This also applies to the perceived norm of family and friends adopting these behaviors. The networks in both countries were largely similar but also showed notable differences. The interplay of psychological factors in the networks is also highlighted, resulting in our appeal to policy makers to take complexity and mutual dependence of psychological factors into account. Future research should study the effects of interventions aimed at these factors, including effects on the network, to make causal inferences., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting Interests: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article., (© The Author(s) 2021.)

This article aims to improve theory formation in psychology by developing a practical methodology for constructing explanatory theories: theory construction methodology (TCM). TCM is a sequence of five steps. First, the theorist identifies a domain of empirical phenomena that becomes the target of explanation. Second, the theorist constructs a prototheory , a set of theoretical principles that putatively explain these phenomena. Third, the prototheory is used to construct a formal model , a set of model equations that encode explanatory principles. Fourth, the theorist investigates the explanatory adequacy of the model by formalizing its empirical phenomena and assessing whether it indeed reproduces these phenomena. Fifth, the theorist studies the overall adequacy of the theory by evaluating whether the identified phenomena are indeed reproduced faithfully and whether the explanatory principles are sufficiently parsimonious and substantively plausible. We explain TCM with an example taken from research on intelligence (the mutualism model of intelligence), in which key elements of the method have been successfully implemented. We discuss the place of TCM in the larger scheme of scientific research and propose an outline for a university curriculum that can systematically educate psychologists in the process of theory formation.

The ability to 'sense' the social environment and thereby to understand the thoughts and actions of others allows humans to fit into their social worlds, communicate and cooperate, and learn from others' experiences. Here we argue that, through the lens of computational social science, this ability can be used to advance research into human sociality. When strategically selected to represent a specific population of interest, human social sensors can help to describe and predict societal trends. In addition, their reports of how they experience their social worlds can help to build models of social dynamics that are constrained by the empirical reality of human social systems.

This research explored whether overall attitude is a stronger predictor of behavior when underlying cognitive-affective inconsistency or ambivalence is low versus high. Across three prospective studies in different behaviors and populations (Study 1: eating a low-fat diet, N = 136 adults, eating five fruit and vegetables per day, N = 135 adults; Study 2: smoking initiation, N = 4,933 adolescents; and Study 3: physical activity, N = 909 adults) we tested cognitive-affective inconsistency and ambivalence individually and simultaneously as moderators of the overall attitude-behavior relationship. Across studies, more similar effects were observed for inconsistency compared with ambivalence (in both individual and simultaneous analyses). Meta-analysis across studies supported this conclusion with both cognitive-affective inconsistency and ambivalence being significant moderators when considered on their own, but only inconsistency being significant when tested simultaneously. The reported studies highlight the importance of cognitive-affective inconsistency as a determinant of the strength of overall attitude.

Belief change and spread have been studied in many disciplines-from psychology, sociology, economics and philosophy, to biology, computer science and statistical physics-but we still do not have a firm grasp on why some beliefs change more easily and spread faster than others. To fully capture the complex social-cognitive system that gives rise to belief dynamics, we first review insights about structural components and processes of belief dynamics studied within different disciplines. We then outline a unifying quantitative framework that enables theoretical and empirical comparisons of different belief dynamic models. This framework uses a statistical physics formalism, grounded in cognitive and social theory, as well as empirical observations. We show how this framework can be used to integrate extant knowledge and develop a more comprehensive understanding of belief dynamics.

Steinley, Hoffman, Brusco, and Sher (2017) proposed a new method for evaluating the performance of psychological network models: fixed-margin sampling. The authors investigated LASSO regularized Ising models (eLasso) by generating random datasets with the same margins as the original binary dataset, and concluded that many estimated eLasso parameters are not distinguishable from those that would be expected if the data were generated by chance. We argue that fixed-margin sampling cannot be used for this purpose, as it generates data under a particular null-hypothesis: a unidimensional factor model with interchangeable indicators (i.e., the Rasch model). We show this by discussing relevant psychometric literature and by performing simulation studies. Results indicate that while eLasso correctly estimated network models and estimated almost no edges due to chance, fixed-margin sampling performed poorly in classifying true effects as "interesting" (Steinley et al. 2017, p. 1004). Further simulation studies indicate that fixed-margin sampling offers a powerful method for highlighting local misfit from the Rasch model, but performs only moderately in identifying global departures from the Rasch model. We conclude that fixed-margin sampling is not up to the task of assessing if results from estimated Ising models or other multivariate psychometric models are due to chance.

Emotions are part and parcel of the human condition, but their nature is debated. Three broad classes of theories about the nature of emotions can be distinguished: affect-program theories, constructionist theories, and appraisal theories. Integrating these broad classes of theories into a unifying theory is challenging. An integrative psychometric model of emotions can inform such a theory because psychometric models are intertwined with theoretical perspectives about constructs. To identify an integrative psychometric model, we delineate properties of emotions stated by emotion theories and investigate whether psychometric models account for these properties. Specifically, an integrative psychometric model of emotions should allow (a) identifying distinct emotions (central in affect-program theories), (b) between- and within-person variations of emotions (central in constructionist theories), and (c) causal relationships between emotion components (central in appraisal theories). Evidence suggests that the popular reflective and formative latent variable models-in which emotions are conceptualized as unobservable causes or consequences of emotion components-cannot account for all properties. Conversely, a psychometric network model-in which emotions are conceptualized as systems of causally interacting emotion components-accounts for all properties. The psychometric network model thus constitutes an integrative psychometric model of emotions, facilitating progress toward a unifying theory.

Network theory, as a theoretical and methodological framework, is energizing many research fields, among which clinical psychology and psychiatry. Fundamental to the network theory of psychopathology is the role of specific symptoms and their interactions. Current statistical tools, however, fail to fully capture this constitutional property. We propose community detection tools as a means to evaluate the complex network structure of psychopathology, free from its original boundaries of distinct disorders. Unique to this approach is that symptoms can belong to multiple communities. Using a large community sample and spanning a broad range of symptoms (Symptom Checklist-90-Revised), we identified 18 communities of interconnected symptoms. The differential role of symptoms within and between communities offers a framework to study the clinical concepts of comorbidity, heterogeneity and hallmark symptoms. Symptoms with many and strong connections within a community, defined as stabilizing symptoms, could be thought of as the core of a community, whereas symptoms that belong to multiple communities, defined as communicating symptoms, facilitate the communication between problem areas. We propose that defining symptoms on their stabilizing and/or communicating role within and across communities accelerates our understanding of these clinical phenomena, central to research and treatment of psychopathology.

Attitudes can have a profound impact on socially relevant behaviours, such as voting. However, this effect is not uniform across situations or individuals, and it is at present difficult to predict whether attitudes will predict behaviour in any given circumstance. Using a network model, we demonstrate that (a) more strongly connected attitude networks have a stronger impact on behaviour, and (b) within any given attitude network, the most central attitude elements have the strongest impact. We test these hypotheses using data on voting and attitudes toward presidential candidates in the US presidential elections from 1980 to 2012. These analyses confirm that the predictive value of attitude networks depends almost entirely on their level of connectivity, with more central attitude elements having stronger impact. The impact of attitudes on voting behaviour can thus be reliably determined before elections take place by using network analyses.

In this article, we provide a brief tutorial on the estimation, analysis, and simulation on attitude networks using the programming language R. We first discuss what a network is and subsequently show how one can estimate a regularized network on typical attitude data. For this, we use open-access data on the attitudes toward Barack Obama during the 2012 American presidential election. Second, we show how one can calculate standard network measures such as community structure, centrality, and connectivity on this estimated attitude network. Third, we show how one can simulate from an estimated attitude network to derive predictions from attitude networks. By this, we highlight that network theory provides a framework for both testing and developing formalized hypotheses on attitudes and related core social psychological constructs., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting Interests: The author(s) declared no potential conflict of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

This article introduces the Causal Attitude Network (CAN) model, which conceptualizes attitudes as networks consisting of evaluative reactions and interactions between these reactions. Relevant evaluative reactions include beliefs, feelings, and behaviors toward the attitude object. Interactions between these reactions arise through direct causal influences (e.g., the belief that snakes are dangerous causes fear of snakes) and mechanisms that support evaluative consistency between related contents of evaluative reactions (e.g., people tend to align their belief that snakes are useful with their belief that snakes help maintain ecological balance). In the CAN model, the structure of attitude networks conforms to a small-world structure: evaluative reactions that are similar to each other form tight clusters, which are connected by a sparser set of "shortcuts" between them. We argue that the CAN model provides a realistic formalized measurement model of attitudes and therefore fills a crucial gap in the attitude literature. Furthermore, the CAN model provides testable predictions for the structure of attitudes and how they develop, remain stable, and change over time. Attitude strength is conceptualized in terms of the connectivity of attitude networks and we show that this provides a parsimonious account of the differences between strong and weak attitudes. We discuss the CAN model in relation to possible extensions, implication for the assessment of attitudes, and possibilities for further study., ((c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).)

Understanding the formation of prejudice, stereotypes, and discrimination has long been a core topic of social psychology. Since the seminal theorizing by Allport in 1954, different views on childhood origins of prejudice have been discussed, in which the role of parental socialization varies on a scale from fundamental to negligible. This meta-analysis integrates the available empirical evidence of the past 60 years and critically discusses the current state of knowledge on parental socialization of intergroup attitudes. A random-effects model analysis of data from 131 studies on over 45,000 parent-child dyads indicated a significant medium-sized average effect size for the correlation between parental and child intergroup attitudes. The average effect size was related to study-specific variables, such as the source of parental attitude report (self vs. child reported), the conceptual overlap between measures, and the privacy of assessment. We also found significant moderations by ingroup status and size as well as child age. The latter was, however, mediated by measurement overlap. No significant effect size differences were found in relation to different components of intergroup attitudes (i.e., affective, cognitive, behavioral), nor to child or parent gender. The results unequivocally demonstrate that parent-child attitudes are related throughout childhood and adolescence. We discuss in detail whether and to what extent this interrelation can be interpreted as an indicator of parent-child socialization to allow a critical evaluation of the available contradicting theories. We furthermore address limitations of the available research and the current meta-analysis and derive implications and suggestions for future research., (© 2013 American Psychological Association)