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Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial-temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960-2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040-2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.

The emergence of alternative stable states in forest systems has significant implications for the functioning and structure of the terrestrial biosphere, yet empirical evidence remains scarce. Here, we combine global forest biodiversity observations and simulations to test for alternative stable states in the presence of evergreen and deciduous forest types. We reveal a bimodal distribution of forest leaf types across temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere that cannot be explained by the environment alone, suggesting signatures of alternative forest states. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate the existence of positive feedbacks in tree growth, recruitment and mortality, with trees having 4–43% higher growth rates, 14–17% higher survival rates and 4–7 times higher recruitment rates when they are surrounded by trees of their own leaf type. Simulations show that the observed positive feedbacks are necessary and sufficient to generate alternative forest states, which also lead to dependency on history (hysteresis) during ecosystem transition from evergreen to deciduous forests and vice versa. We identify hotspots of bistable forest types in evergreen-deciduous ecotones, which are likely driven by soil-related positive feedbacks. These findings are integral to predicting the distribution of forest biomes, and aid to our understanding of biodiversity, carbon turnover, and terrestrial climate feedbacks.

Although climate change is expected to drive tree species toward colder and wetter regions of their distribution, broadscale empirical evidence is lacking. One possibility is that past and present human activities in forests obscure or alter the effects of climate. Here, using data from more than two million monitored trees from 73 widely distributed species, we quantify changes in tree species density within their climatic niches across Northern Hemisphere forests. We observe a reduction in mean density across species, coupled with a tendency toward increasing tree size. However, the direction and magnitude of changes in density exhibit considerable variability between species, influenced by stand development that results from previous stand-level disturbances. Remarkably, when accounting for stand development, our findings show a significant change in density toward cold and wet climatic conditions for 43% of the species, compared to only 14% of species significantly changing their density toward warm and arid conditions in both early- and late-development stands. The observed changes in climate-driven density showed no clear association with species traits related to drought tolerance, recruitment and dispersal capacity, or resource use, nor with the temperature or aridity affiliation of the species, leaving the underlying mechanism uncertain. Forest conservation policies and associated management strategies might want to consider anticipated long-term species range shifts alongside the integration of contemporary within-distribution density changes.

Länsstyrelserna har genom den regionala miljöövervakningens gemensamma delprogram Miljötillståndet i skogslandskapet låtit Riksskogstaxeringen vid Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet sammanställa statistik för 18 indikatorer. Syftet är att beskriva tillstånd och trender som indirekt påverkar biologisk mångfald och ekosystemtjänster, om möjligt på länsnivå. I vissa fall har län slagits samman för att möjliggöra skattningar med godtagbar tillförlitlighet. Nytt för sammanställningen den här gången är att resultaten presenteras i en interaktiv webbapplikation där användaren kan söka fram den information som den är intresserad av. Rapporten beskriver hur användaren tar fram statistik ur verktyget. Adressen till statistiken är: https://pxweb.lansstyrelsen.se/pxweb/sv/Miljotillstandet_i_skogslandskapet/ Statistiken visar att skogens ålderssammansättning är starkt förskjuten mot yngre och medelålders skogar, där de under 60 år dominerar. I den fjällnära skogen är åldersfördelningen mer förskjuten mot de äldre åldersklasserna, likaså inom de formellt skyddade områdena men här skiljer det sig stort över landet med en gradient som går från lägre andel äldre skog i de sydligaste länen till högre i de nordligaste länen. Över tid så har arealen äldre skog minskat sedan 1920-talet, men det är stora regionala skillnader. Minskningen ses främst i Norrland medan Svealand idag har ungefär samma nivå och Götaland till och med har sett en ökning efter en uppgång sedan mitten av 1990-talet. Men det är mindre än en procent av skogen som visar naturskogskaraktär idag, i sydlänen är andelen nästan försumbar. Totalt sett har virkesvolymen ökat över tid. Skogarna på 1920-talet var betydligt glesare. Barrskogarna dominerar idag kraftigt i alla län utom Skåne, Stockholm, Uppsala, Västmanland och Blekinge. I länen Norrbotten, Västerbotten, Gävleborg, Dalarna och Gotland dominerar tallskogarna bland barrskogarna, i övriga län är granskogarna vanligare. Från Mälarlänen och söderut förekommer den ädla lö

The boreal forest floor vegetation is critical for ecosystem functioning and an important part of forest biodiversity. Given the ongoing global change, knowledge on broad-scale changes in the composition and abundance of different plant species and species groups is hence important for both forest conservation and management. Here, we analyse permanent plot data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) on changes in the vegetation over a 10-year period in four regions of Sweden. To limit the direct and relatively well-known effects of forest management and associated succession, we only included mature forest stands not influenced by forestry during the 10 years between inventories, and focused on vegetation change mainly related to other factors. Results show strong decrease among many species and species groups. This includes dominant species such as Vaccinimum myrtillus and Deschampsia flexuosa as well as several forest herbs. The only species increasing are some mosses in the southern regions. Our data do not allow for a causal interpretation of the observed patterns. However, the changes probably result from latent succession in combination with climate change and nitrogen deposition, and with time lags complicating the interpretation of their relative importance. Regardless of the cause, the observed changes are on a magnitude that suggest impacts on ecosystem functioning and hence highlight the need for more experimental work.

1. Forest ecosystem functioning generally benefits from higher tree species richness, but variation within richness levels is typically large. This is mostly due to the contrasting performances of communities with different compositions. Evidence-based understanding of composition effects on forest productivity, as well as on multiple other functions will enable forest managers to focus on the selection of species that maximize functioning, rather than on diversity per se. 2. We used a dataset of 30 ecosystem functions measured in stands with different species richness and composition in six European forest types. First, we quantified whether the compositions that maximize annual above-ground wood production (productivity) generally also fulfil the multiple other ecosystem functions (multifunctionality). Then, we quantified the species identity effects and strength of interspecific interactions to identify the "best" and "worst" species composition for multifunctionality. Finally, we evaluated the real-world frequency of occurrence of best and worst mixtures, using harmonized data from multiple national forest inventories. 3. The most productive tree species combinations also tended to express relatively high multifunctionality, although we found a relatively wide range of compositions with high- or low-average multifunctionality for the same level of productivity. Monocultures were distributed among the highest as well as the lowest performing compositions. The variation in functioning between compositions was generally driven by differences in the performance of the component species and, to a lesser extent, by particular interspecific interactions. Finally, we found that the most frequent species compositions in inventory data were monospecific stands and that the most common compositions showed below-average multifunctionality and productivity. 4. Synthesis and applications. Species identity and composition effects are essential to the development of high-perfor

For decades, ecologists have investigated the effects of tree species diversity on tree productivity at different scales and with different approaches ranging from observational to experimental study designs. Using data from five European national forest inventories (16,773 plots), six tree species diversity experiments (584 plots), and six networks of comparative plots (169 plots), we tested whether tree species growth responses to species mixing are consistent and therefore transferrable between those different research approaches. Our results confirm the general positive effect of tree species mixing on species growth (16% on average) but we found no consistency in species‐specific responses to mixing between any of the three approaches, even after restricting comparisons to only those plots that shared similar mixtures compositions and forest types. These findings highlight the necessity to consider results from different research approaches when selecting species mixtures that should maximize positive forest biodiversity and functioning relationships.

Many tree species worldwide are suffering from slow or failed natural regeneration with dramatic consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, it is difficult to disentangle the complex effects of factors influencing regeneration processes on long-lived tree species at large scales. In this study, we use long-term data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory (1953-2015) combined with deer hunting data (1960-2015) to reveal experimentally-intractable processes impeding oak (Quercus spp.) regeneration in southern Sweden. Oak-dominated ecosystems are widespread in northern temperate regions, where oaks are foundation species with disproportionate importance for biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Our study reveals that during the last six decades, oak tree numbers and standing volume have continuously increased, while natural regeneration of oak declined steeply after the early 1980s. We connect this decline to denser and darker forests, combined with increased abundance of deer. Land use changes during the six decades, such as abandonment of traditional practices and large-scale introduction of forest management oriented towards high volume production, led to continuously denser forests and thereby reduced the oak regeneration niche. In addition, the impact of changed game management was evident. This was particularly clear from a natural experiment on Gotland, a large island free of deer until roe deer were introduced in the late 20th century, at which point oak regeneration began a steep decline. At the stand level, natural oak regeneration could be expected to mainly occur in pulses after disturbance events, followed by a period of low regeneration success as the cohort ages. However, at a landscape scale one would expect a mix of successional stages that would even out such demographic patterns. A prolonged period of low regeneration at a landscape scale will eventually lead to a large gap in the oak size distribution as was observed in this, Funding Agencies|Foundation Oscar and Lili Lamms Memory, Sweden [DO2014-0015]; Erik and Ebba Larssons and Thure Rignells Foundation, Sweden [20190320]

Humans require multiple services from ecosystems, but it is largely unknown whether trade-offs between ecosystem functions prevent the realisation of high ecosystem multifunctionality across spatial scales. Here, we combined a comprehensive dataset (28 ecosystem functions measured on 209 forest plots) with a forest inventory dataset (105,316 plots) to extrapolate and map relationships between various ecosystem multifunctionality measures across Europe. These multifunctionality measures reflected different management objectives, related to timber production, climate regulation and biodiversity conservation/recreation. We found that trade-offs among them were rare across Europe, at both local and continental scales. This suggests a high potential for ‘win-win’ forest management strategies, where overall multifunctionality is maximised. However, across sites, multifunctionality was on average 45.8-49.8% below maximum levels and not necessarily highest in protected areas. Therefore, using one of the most comprehensive assessments so far, our study suggests a high but largely unrealised potential for management to promote multifunctional forests.

Humans require multiple services from ecosystems, but it is largely unknown whether trade‐offs between ecosystem functions prevent the realisation of high ecosystem multifunctionality across spatial scales. Here, we combined a comprehensive dataset (28 ecosystem functions measured on 209 forest plots) with a forest inventory dataset (105,316 plots) to extrapolate and map relationships between various ecosystem multifunctionality measures across Europe. These multifunctionality measures reflected different management objectives, related to timber production, climate regulation and biodiversity conservation/recreation. We found that trade‐offs among them were rare across Europe, at both local and continental scales. This suggests a high potential for ‘win‐win’ forest management strategies, where overall multifunctionality is maximised. However, across sites, multifunctionality was on average 45.8‐49.8% below maximum levels and not necessarily highest in protected areas. Therefore, using one of the most comprehensive assessments so far, our study suggests a high but largely unrealised potential for management to promote multifunctional forests.