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According to many scholars, the worsening security situation in the South China Sea (SCS), is due to overlapping claims, the increased presence of maritime state forces in the SCS, and the competition for power between the United States and China in the region. This thesis attempts to contribute to these arguments by examining how China uses its China Coast Guard (CCG) and its People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) to advance and protect its claims in the SCS. Ultimately, this thesis finds the CCG and the PAFMM negatively impact the security situation in the SCS, as China uses them to advance and protect its contentious maritime claims. They contribute to the instability of the SCS through their growing capabilities and shift to defense-type missions as well as their subsequent aggressive and coercive behaviors toward other maritime forces and civilian ships in the SCS. In response, littoral states—along with great powers— should deter these aggressive and coercive actions of the CCG and the PAFMM in the SCS by jointly recognizing and treating the PAFMM as a state force, addressing the absence of agreed-upon guiding principles for responding to encounters between coast guards, intensifying security cooperation, and accepting calculated risks of escalation to influence China to reconsider its cost-benefit calculation of its actions in the SCS., Commander, Philippine Coast Guard, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis seeks lessons for modern grand strategy by examining the history of covert action as it was developed and incorporated into U.S. containment strategy between 1947 and 1960. While many scholars have written on both grand strategy and covert action, none have used covert action as a case study to examine how states incorporate new approaches into grand strategy while adapting to a shifting threat landscape and managing military escalation. This research reveals five lessons for strategists today. First, the underappreciated continuity in Truman and Eisenhower's approaches to covert action and the role it played in the success of containment. Second, how broad objectives and urgency can allow bottom-up initiatives to diverge from national interests. Third, strategic evaluation is essential to ensure objectives and operations remain aligned with interests. Fourth, the pitfall of attempting to replicate success by transferring methods to dissimilar environments. Finally, the difficulty in overcoming entrenched bureaucracy when crafting new strategic capabilities. Policymakers should particularly consider the pitfalls of broad objectives, strategic evaluation, and challenges of transferability as they seek lessons from the ongoing war in Ukraine. Strategic competition once more makes the lessons of covert action timely as the U.S. attempts to manage escalation with Russia and counter PRC malign influence., Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Since the end of the Second World War, Guam has served as a linchpin of U.S. military power in the Indo-Pacific. As the United States’ westernmost territory in the world, Guam has been lauded as the place where America’s day begins. However, with its strategic importance and abundance of military combat power, Guam may be where America’s next war begins. Following decades of reform and modernization, the People’s Liberation Army presents a significant threat to the preeminence of U.S. military power in the region. This study uses a structured vulnerability analysis based on the principles of risk analysis, reliability engineering, adversarial analysis, and safety engineering to identify Guam’s critical vulnerabilities and formulate recommendations that enhance the territory’s defense posture. This study finds that Guam’s missile defense posture constitutes the island’s most significant vulnerability and recommends that congressional budgetary initiatives must remain focused on enhancing Guam’s missile defense capability and hardening defense infrastructure throughout the Pacific territories. Should modern warfare reach the shores of Guam, the U.S. military will have to fight for Guam before it can fight from it., Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Prisons and jails house inmates susceptible to radicalization and recruitment by extremist groups, which necessitates an intelligence collection program to detect and disrupt this activity. Unfortunately, barriers exist within the State of Texas that hinder effective correctional intelligence sharing. This thesis asks, What can be done to improve the level of intelligence sharing in regard to extremism in correctional environments in the State of Texas? What benefits toward this effort could be derived from a centrally administered and coordinated intelligence framework? By examining existing programs, this thesis identifies barriers, including limited access to intelligence due to reliance on federal agencies, which require lengthy background checks and clearances; the lack of a robust network between facilities and law enforcement, which prevents the comparison of crucial data; and minimal inclusion of corrections within existing legal frameworks related to these threats. Using a case study analysis, this thesis examines three frameworks as possible models to improve information sharing. It argues that the State of Texas should use executive orders to create a centralized entity to coordinate intelligence to more effectively address threats within corrections., Civilian, Texas Department of Criminal Justice - Office of the Inspector General, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In 2001, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) was created to secure all modes of transportation from external threats such as terrorists and other actors with malicious intent. Currently, the most dangerous threat to aviation security is an insider threat. What TSA can do better to address insider threats is the primary focus of this thesis. This thesis utilizes a comparative analysis to examine the insider threat programs at the Department of Defense and the Federal Bureau of Investigation in the United States and the Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure in the United Kingdom to explore insider threat mitigation options for TSA. This thesis finds that TSA should establish a more thorough vetting of applicants and an ongoing review of current aviation employees. Accomplishing this recommendation will require multiple strategies, including establishing and strengthening partnerships to leverage expertise and maximize resources., Civilian, Department of Homeland Security, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

State and non-state actors like Russia and the Alt-Right use disinformation campaigns to target social and political fractures and polarize society on sensitive issues. U.S. agencies have continued to utilize variations of the same counter disinformation measures for the last 50 years. These measures have failed to keep pace with innovations by disinformation actors due to changes in the information environment and the speed of information diffusion. This thesis examines how framing theory can assist U.S. counter disinformation efforts. Framing theory proposes that the context, or frame, in which information is presented influences how individuals process the received information. In the context of this thesis, development of a strong frame consists of three elements: volume, credibility, and resonance. These elements are applied to three disinformation campaigns—Operation Denver, a Soviet campaign attributing HIV to the U.S.; #Pizzagate, a 2016 election interference campaign; and Plandemic, a non-state actor campaign targeting U.S. COVID-19 policy makers—and the countermeasures employed by U.S. agencies to each. This thesis contrasts disinformation campaigns and countermeasures using framing to demonstrate elements employed by disinformation actors and U.S. agencies to determine key differences that contribute to the successes and failures of disinformation countermeasures. This thesis proposes incorporating framing analysis into countermeasure planning and execution., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The 2020 Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic brought military training, deployments, and ultimately troop movements to a screeching halt. As of May 24, 2021, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) produced an unclassified report stating that 194,345 service members had contracted COVID-19 to-date; unfortunately, 26 of these service members died. Ultimately, COVID-19 has demonstrated how disruptive a pandemic is on daily life, in and out of uniform. In many respects, though, this experience is neither new nor surprising; disease outbreaks and even pandemics have existed long before COVID-19. A pandemic, while a rare occurrence in the world, is an increasingly concerning threat to U.S. national security. Twenty-first century technological and dynamic transportation systems have enabled military forces to deploy enormous capacities across the globe within hours. This transport capacity, while impressive, necessitates an important warning for national security: an infectious disease is just as transportable. For military forces that deploy across the globe, this threat has the ability to debilitate military readiness in hours. Therefore, which factors have enabled strategic responses to better preserve military readiness in the face of past pandemic and endemic epidemiological threats? Uncovering these factors will inform new military medical practices and procedures., Captain, United States Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Criminals have increasingly embraced cryptocurrency, accounting for its explosion. This thesis traces cryptocurrency’s growth and the government’s failure to combat it and provides a guide for state and local law enforcement to identify and curb illegal cryptocurrency. It highlights cryptocurrency’s key exploitable characteristics and recommends agency policies and procedures, pinpointing some drivers of organizational change to accelerate state and local law enforcement agencies’ preparedness. The thesis offers cases to demonstrate how law enforcement mastered DNA analysis by creating policies and procedures, increasing knowledge, and acknowledging legal precedents. The work reveals a critical need for cryptocurrency training and education at state and local levels. Identifying cryptocurrency in criminal investigations and populating shared databases is a pressing need, so leveraging federal partnerships and educational institutions for training should advance efforts. Collaborating with private companies on cryptocurrency identification software will also change the game. In sum, sharing intelligence, performing community outreach for prevention, and reexamining cold cases through new cryptocurrency intelligence may stem these crimes., Civilian, New Jersey State Police, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In the past few years, China and Russia have developed offensive hypersonic missile capabilities that the United States currently can neither match nor successfully defend against. Such weapons are nuclear capable, have an unpredictable flight path, and significantly reduce reaction times for decision makers. This thesis analyzes the impact hypersonic missiles have on strategy and military combat systems to determine how the United States can best respond to China and Russia acquiring hypersonic weapons. It explores three main options: arms control negotiations, advancing the U.S. missile defense system, or the United States acquiring its own hypersonic weapons. The pros and cons of each option are weighed to determine the quickest, most affordable, and most effective approach to the hypersonic arms race.This thesis concludes that the United States should control only what it is capable of controlling: practicing transparency and confidence-building measures to set the international standard for conduct with hypersonic weapons, continuing to develop its missile defense system to keep pace with emerging threats, and acquiring hypersonic missiles to allow it the ability to operate forward-deployed forces without impediment is the best response to China and Russia., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Over the years, the National Network of Intelligence Fusion Centers, established after the 9/11 attacks, was able to evolve and adapt to new threats and challenges to security environments. Domestic violent extremism became a serious challenge to U.S. security, especially after the development of social media. The most dangerous representatives of violent domestic extremism are the far-right extremists, who have become very active in the last decade. The far-right groups successfully used social media for organization and propaganda by spreading disinformation and conspiracy theories. This thesis tries to understand the role of state and local fusion centers in the fight against violent far-right extremists. To answer that question, this thesis analyses the intelligence fusion centers’ actions concerning the Capitol insurrection by far-right extremists on January 6, 2021, and disinformation campaigns during the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections. The findings are that fusion centers played an important role during the Capitol insurrection by exploiting open-source intelligence. On the other hand, fusion centers are not effective against foreign or, especially, domestic disinformation campaigns. Therefore, more federal support is needed to improve the fusion centers' capacity to help contain the spread of disinformation., Captain, Bulgarian Special Operations Forces Brigade, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Emerging technologies are bringing significant changes to the character of warfare. One such emerging technology, autonomous weapon systems (AWS), is proving increasingly crucial for the United States to maintain its technological superiority over its adversaries. However, AWS brings increasingly complex challenges that demand legal, ethical, and operational considerations. The thesis asks a question related directly to current DOD policy on AWS: how can a human operator apply appropriate judgment during future AWS employment? Using authority, responsibility, and accountability as an analytical framework, the thesis builds upon U.S. policy and strategy with respect to autonomy in weapon systems, international law considerations, and the application of AWS in an operational environment. It uses case studies of the 1988 U.S.S. Vincennes incident and 2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom Patriot fratricides to examine how human judgment was executed alongside autonomous functions within weapon systems, providing lessons learned for AWS research, development, and implementation. The thesis uncovers critical ideas for keeping a human operator from losing control by remaining involved with specific oversight measures—allowing appropriate judgment to be applied during the employment process., Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The rapid growth and modernization of the China Coast Guard (CCG) and its frequent use of grey zone tactics such as bumping, using high-powered water cannons, and other actions below the threshold of war have led to growing concern amongst policy makers and security experts in the U.S. and throughout Asia. In 2013, China consolidated four of its five maritime law enforcement agencies into a unified coast guard force. Then in 2018 and 2021, China would further reform the CCG by subordinating the CCG to the Central Military Commission (CMC) in 2018 and later by establishing a new CCG law in 2021. To understand the motivation behind China’s decision to establish and reform the CCG, this thesis analyzed and evaluated two potential explanations: 1) China’s desire to better protect its maritime rights and interests and 2) China’s desire to create a more professional coast guard force. The thesis concludes that protection of maritime rights and interests was the more significant driver of CCG reforms. China will likely continue to prioritize maritime rights and interests and implement further CCG reforms to further enhance CCG-PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy) interoperability to carry this mission., Lieutenant Junior Grade, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Emergency management agencies are responsible for developing processes to maintain situational awareness in emergency operations centers (EOCs) to prepare for and respond to disasters. Implementing internet of things (IoT) technologies can revolutionize emergency management and response by providing real-time data, improving communication and coordination, and leading to more efficient and effective emergency responses. IoT can provide signals intelligence to inform situational awareness in EOCs, provided the organization prepares for and uses the technology intentionally and integrates systems from daily processes. Through case studies on smart and novel cities, this thesis evaluates the possibility of using emerging IoT technologies in a crisis to guide local emergency management agencies in predicting emerging threats and maintaining situational awareness and demonstrates how IoT systems used for daily processes can generate signals intelligence. This thesis asserts that cities can use IoT systems to set baseline data readings and machine learning to detect anomalies within the community. Looking ahead, Songdo, South Korea, and NEOM in Saudi Arabia provide examples of how new cities can build a smart foundation around technology while engaging with anticipated residents to meet their needs. This research concludes that as IoT technology evolves, emergency managers must adapt and utilize these advancements to enhance operations and protect communities., Civilian, City of Cupertino, Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.

With the rising threat of active shooters, armed off-duty and retired law enforcement officers may prove to be an effective tool in American homeland security. Yet, while the number of active shooter and critical incidents in the United States have continued to rise, the number of non-traditional response interventions has remained minimal. Unfortunately, the presence of armed, off-duty law enforcement officers can create other problems, often referred to as blue-on-blue encounters. This thesis examines the questions: Can tools such as Hero911 mitigate some of the major risks associated with self-dispatch? How can off-duty or plainclothes officers be best incorporated into active shooter response? Finally, what processes can make utilization of non-traditional responders safer for all? This thesis concludes that over the past 20 years of active shooter responses, first responders have missed an opportunity with respect to the use of non-traditional responders. On- or off-duty non-traditional responders serve as a force multiplier, which widens the pool of available responders. Use of any technology is not without risks, and to avoid more confusion during an active shooter event, training is paramount. Properly used, tools such as Hero911 can reduce the risks involved in non-traditional officer response., Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Strategically, it will always be preferable for the United States to fight “out there” where the conflict is far away from the homeland. But, as the Russian and Chinese navies continue to develop longer-range capabilities and other threats toward the U.S. homeland grow, it is crucial to examine how well the surface Navy is prepared to defend the homeland. Given both the emerging threats from peer competitors, such as Russia and China, and the surface Navy’s prioritization of forces abroad, this thesis asks whether the surface Navy is adequately prepared to defend against such future threats to the American homeland. Through a qualitative analysis of relevant literature, this thesis concludes that the American homeland will be targeted by peer competitors during a future crisis or conflict. Based on credible threats to the homeland, the Navy will have to balance appropriately on prioritizing and allocating forces abroad and at home. The Navy will have to break away from the traditional maritime strategy of primarily only fighting abroad, and it will need to provide assistance to enhance a layered defense approach to effectively defend the homeland in the future. Thus, this thesis recommends establishing a national combined maritime and aerospace defense command to ensure that air, land, and sea forces are prioritized and allocated appropriately for the defense of the American homeland during crisis or conflict in the future.

The Panama Canal, an asset historically under U.S. protection, is easily threatened by enterprising adversaries. A closure event of the Canal would have significant economic and strategic implications for the United States in a great power conflict (GPC) war, principally with China. Since 2017, the United States has sought to realign its National Defense Strategy toward a GPC, broadening the active focus of the U.S. defense strategy and reexamining U.S. policies toward its traditional backyard in Latin America, specifically the Panama Canal. The purpose of this thesis was to determine whether current U.S. national defense policies toward the Panama Canal have adequately prepared the U.S. military to cope with GPC adversaries in this new security landscape. This thesis endeavored to answer the following questions: What are the military and economic repercussions of a closure event for the United States? What is the likelihood of an attack on the Canal? What do China’s current actions foretell concerning its current strategy toward the Panama Canal? Finally, what security policies can the United States undertake to ensure Canal viability in a potential GPC war?

Law enforcement agencies from all sectors, including local, state, and federal agencies, are experiencing a dramatic decrease in staffing. Concurrently, recruitment of new officers has also significantly declined. As law enforcement staffing decreases, agencies struggle to meet the needs of the populations they serve. Reduced staffing also impacts law enforcement’s ability to conduct front-line and collaborative homeland security functions. This thesis examines how changes to law enforcement retirement systems impact the recruiting and retention of officers. This thesis utilizes existing academic literature from varied disciplines to examine the impact that changes in benefits will have on law enforcement staffing and the ability of law enforcement as a sector to participate in homeland security activities. The intent of this thesis is to predict the success or failure of benefits reforms as they relate to recruitment and retention of staff in law enforcement careers.

This thesis explores existing frameworks and common challenges with information sharing among California’s anti–human trafficking specialty units. This research aimed to contextualize current gaps and barriers in the collection and dissemination process of sensitive and confidential human-trafficking information. The research identified social, economic, and human interpersonal factors affecting group work and illustrated how a nuanced application of the social identity analytical method might decrease interpersonal misunderstandings and miscommunications, thus increasing the volume and quantity of anti-trafficking information sharing. The findings of this research indicate that when anti-trafficking specialty units do not work together seamlessly, they foster programmatic and societal shadows that traffickers rely on to exploit their victims. Gaining an in-depth perspective on working group members’ social identities will increase trust within the groups, thereby promoting cooperation, coordination, and collaboration. Elevating all forms of group work is likely to spur analytical insights into the evolving tactics, techniques, and procedures of the threat actors, not to mention identify previously unrecognized victims while building more successful prosecutions.

The aim of this dissertation is to explain why and how the United States decided to build the B-21 stealth bomber. The B-21 Raider is the most recent endeavor to find a worthy successor (though not, strictly speaking, a replacement) for the B-52 Stratofortress. The B-21’s immediate predecessor, the B-2 Spirit, was conceived over forty years ago with the same purpose in mind. Understanding why and how the B-2 came to life, and how and why it fell far short of its intended production goal, offers insights into its successor, the B-21. By conducting a comparative analysis of the B-2 and the B-21 via the four dominant forces found in the defense acquisition literature--bureaucratic politics, technology, politics, and strategic need--it was found that neither program could begin until all of the forces were in alignment. And in the case of the B-2, it was discovered that when those forces fell out of alignment, the program was subsequently terminated. While it cannot be known how successful the B-21 program will be, thus far, the program has exhibited signs of institutional learning from the B-2 program’s early demise, which portends it will not suffer the same fate. Given the historical contribution of this study and its associated findings, this research will be of particular interest to defense acquisition professionals, military elites, Congress, scholars, and students of history, among others.

A synchronized collection of intelligence and investigative capacities, such as would be required to holistically mitigate the emerging threat from unmanned aircraft systems, does not currently exist within the United States government. Furthermore, the entities that do possess the authority, knowledge, and experience to respond are working within largely independent environments. This thesis seeks to identify the best method to collectivize individual agency strengths, unifying intelligence and investigative capacities into one juggernaut-level response against UAS threats. To address this, working groups, task forces, and single agency designation were chosen as potential options specifically for their historical precedence and likelihood of success. Each was compared according to their ability to embrace two defining characteristics: collaboration and commitment. The outcome of the analysis determined that the task force model was ultimately the most effective means to address UAS threats holistically. It mitigates the challenges associated with current technology and legal restrictions by utilizing intelligence and investigative operational capabilities to properly address each of the six steps within the UAS kill chain, all within an environment of high collaboration and commitment. The conclusions and accompanying recommendations outlined in this thesis provide a definitive direction as well as a rational plan of implementation., Civilian, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis seeks to understand the best method for employing the Naval intelligence community in 2035 and beyond. Naval intelligence manning has remained largely unchanged since the end of the Cold War. As the United States adapts to a new geopolitical paradigm involving peer military forces and the rapid technological advances, the Naval intelligence community must adapt to ensure U.S. success in all phases of conflict. This thesis sets the stage for a future geopolitical scenario defined by multipolarity, confrontation with China, and the rise of artificial intelligence and remote technologies. This thesis examines the problem of strategic warning to enable deterrence, effective team building to optimize information flow, and the effectiveness of tactical intelligence in the modern and future naval battlefield. Ultimately, this thesis argues the Naval intelligence community should expand its support to tactical warfighting units to ensure sustained U.S. naval dominance., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Includes supplementary material, Includes Supplementary Material, The question of whether the U.S. government should negotiate for hostages and make concessions to hostage takers has been extensively discussed by policymakers and scholars. The issue of ransom has received less attention. This thesis assesses the impact of ransom on duration in captivity for American hostages through qualitative and quantitative research. Using a set of historical cases since 1801, the qualitative portion assesses the effectiveness of ransom in relation to objectives and motivation of hostage takers based on their phase within the hostage-taking cycle. The quantitative portion of this research correlates ransom and other forms of concessions with duration in captivity. It finds that Americans represent less than 2% of the hostage population worldwide, yet their duration in captivity is twice that of hostages from other countries when ransom is a condition of their release and four times the duration when concessions are utilized. When hostages of other nationalities are released through concessions, their duration in captivity is less that of American citizens released through ransom. This research concludes that, compared to concessions, ransom is effective in decreasing the duration in captivity for American hostages. However, American hostages hold value to hostage-takers as leverage in driving up ransom amounts and encouraging other countries to pay as well as for political gains and propaganda purposes, therefore, increasing their duration in captivity., Civilian, Department of Homeland Security, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis reviews a series of past school-setting incidents, assesses data on the characteristics and management of those situations, and documents existing practices and mandates with government agency protocols and recommendations to evaluate early signs of threat through behavioral threat assessment and management. Specifically, it presents case studies examining policies and actions facilitated to address violent episodes in the following schools: STEM School Highlands Ranch in Douglas County, Colorado; Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida; Santa Fe High School in Santa Fe, Texas; and Arapahoe High School in Centennial, Colorado. This thesis analyzes these schools’ policies and protocols, flaws, and weaknesses revealed in the aftermath of the incidents; surveys state legislation before and after the attacks; and details violence prevention initiatives at the federal level. This thesis finds that threat assessment programs can help identify students who pose a threat to the school’s environment and help schools better prepare appropriate interventions before attacks are carried out. The components of effective threat assessment programs include creating consistent training, communicating protocols and policies, utilizing the same language across districts, and engaging in broad community outreach., Civilian, New Jersey Office of School Preparedness and Emergency Planning, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the threat of both electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. EMP/GMD events are classified as low-probability/high-impact events that have potential catastrophic consequences to all levels of government as well as the civilian population of the United States. By reviewing current literature and conducting two thought experiments, this thesis determined that various critical infrastructure sectors and modern society are at risk of the effects of EMP/GMD events. Some of the most serious consequences of a large-scale EMP/GMD event include long-term power loss to large geographic regions, loss of modern medical services, and severe communication blackouts that could make recovery from these events extremely difficult. In an attempt to counteract and mitigate the risks of EMP/GMD events, resilience engineering concepts introduced several recommendations that could be utilized by policymakers to mitigate the effects of EMP or GMD events. Some of the recommendations include utilizing hardened micro-grid systems, black start options, and various changes to government agency organizations that would provide additional resilience and recovery to American critical infrastructure systems in a post-EMP/GMD environment., Captain, United States Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Special events and mass gatherings present significant vulnerabilities across the United States and remain attractive targets for violent extremists. This study contends that a more realistic understanding of their human consequences (i.e., civilians killed or wounded) can help inform the deployment of limited resources and personnel to mitigate the potential consequences. Specifically, this thesis investigates how predictive analysis models could be developed, vetted, and implemented as public safety planning tools. The study examines the relationship between the crowd size and the killed or wounded rates of common terrorism attack types. When a relationship exists, the research explores how that relationship can be expressed as a mathematical model that predicts future lethality. The relationship between the crowd size, killed or wounded, and attack type is examined using regression analysis. Of the five attack types reviewed, only two yielded enough data for this level of statistical analysis. The results show a mostly weak relationship, which suggests that overall crowd size holds little influence over the total casualty rate. Instead, the weapon’s effective range, crowd density, and ease of egress are recommended as future areas of continued study. This thesis also suggests continued research and development of probabilistic consequence models while identifying options for collaboration and implementation., Civilian, Philadelphia Office of Emergency Management, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the implications—legal, financial, and humanitarian—arising from immigrant detention in the United States. The methods used are as follows: legal analysis, both international and domestic; cost analysis of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities and private prisons; and comparative analysis of actual immigrant detention conditions to international norms and ICE’s self-imposed standards. This thesis finds the following: immigrant detention is legal in the United States with limited constitutional protections; the financial costs for immigrant detention are difficult to estimate accurately; U.S. immigrant detention practices appear to violate international norms; and ICE’s self-imposed standards are hard to meet. This thesis concludes policies that more clearly define the requirements for immigrant detention in the United States should be limited in use and scope. Furthermore, the U.S. government should either implement new laws and regulations or modify existing ones to establish a more consistent standard regarding which migrants without a lawful status should be detained pending criminal or administrative proceedings., Civilian, Department of Homeland Security, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Since the end of the Second World War, Guam has served as a linchpin of U.S. military power in the Indo-Pacific. As the United States’ westernmost territory in the world, Guam has been lauded as the place where America’s day begins. However, with its strategic importance and abundance of military combat power, Guam may be where America’s next war begins. Following decades of reform and modernization, the People’s Liberation Army presents a significant threat to the preeminence of U.S. military power in the region. This study uses a structured vulnerability analysis based on the principles of risk analysis, reliability engineering, adversarial analysis, and safety engineering to identify Guam’s critical vulnerabilities and formulate recommendations that enhance the territory’s defense posture. This study finds that Guam’s missile defense posture constitutes the island’s most significant vulnerability and recommends that congressional budgetary initiatives must remain focused on enhancing Guam’s missile defense capability and hardening defense infrastructure throughout the Pacific territories. Should modern warfare reach the shores of Guam, the U.S. military will have to fight for Guam before it can fight from it.

The rapid growth and modernization of the China Coast Guard (CCG) and its frequent use of grey zone tactics such as bumping, using high-powered water cannons, and other actions below the threshold of war have led to growing concern amongst policy makers and security experts in the U.S. and throughout Asia. In 2013, China consolidated four of its five maritime law enforcement agencies into a unified coast guard force. Then in 2018 and 2021, China would further reform the CCG by subordinating the CCG to the Central Military Commission (CMC) in 2018 and later by establishing a new CCG law in 2021. To understand the motivation behind China’s decision to establish and reform the CCG, this thesis analyzed and evaluated two potential explanations: 1) China’s desire to better protect its maritime rights and interests and 2) China’s desire to create a more professional coast guard force. The thesis concludes that protection of maritime rights and interests was the more significant driver of CCG reforms. China will likely continue to prioritize maritime rights and interests and implement further CCG reforms to further enhance CCG-PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy) interoperability to carry this mission.

The security vetting of refugees proves problematic, as refugees are often without documents to verify their identity. However, refugees are often in possession of mobile devices that could serve as a proof of identity. If the United States Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) implemented a mobile phone vetting program, it could assist in identifying nefarious actors while expediting the security vetting process. Three policy alternatives were analyzed for a mobile phone screening program in the USRAP: (1) maintain the status quo of applicants’ mobile phones not being screened, (2) implement mandatory screening of all applicants’ mobile phones, and (3) administer a threat-based targeted approach where only the phones of applicants whose cases have fraud and/or national security indicators are screened. The alternatives were evaluated by efficiency (time and cost), risk to national security, and ethical consideration. Ultimately, a threat-based targeted approach was determined to be the best policy alternative, as it optimized efficiency, minimized risk to national security, and limited arbitrariness of mobile phone screening., Civilian, Department of Homeland Security, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This research examined how the inclusion of human trafficking as a crime subject to state mandatory reporting requirements would enhance local and state law enforcement efforts to identify, document, and investigate the crimes of foreign-born human trafficking. This thesis documented the impact of state mandatory reporting laws on police responses to domestic violence and child abuse crimes through an examination of relevant legislation and statutes, scholarly works, data collection frameworks, case studies, and statistical findings. It subsequently found that state-level mandatory reporting laws related to domestic violence and child abuse enhanced law enforcement’s ability to identify such crimes through improved data collection and analysis. Based on these findings, the incorporation of trafficking crimes into states’ existing mandatory reporting frameworks will likely improve law enforcement efforts to create comprehensive data collection and sharing platforms necessary for evidence-based policy development and evaluation of anti-human trafficking strategies. However, amending mandatory reporting laws should be held in abeyance until such time that due consideration can be given to ethical concerns and the potential victim impact of such changes., Civilian, Portland Police Bureau, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

To prevent friendly fire incidents and avoid duplication of effort, law enforcement agencies in the United States use multiple deconfliction systems to register investigative targets and notify outside units and agencies of proactive undercover operations. This research reveals that investigators are confused about which of the main systems to use in certain areas and that the use of multiple systems prevents investigators from gathering data on friendly fire incidents and restricts collaboration between agencies that are targeting the same criminals. Having one central deconfliction system for use by federal, state, local, and tribal authorities would make law enforcement officers’ jobs safer and would facilitate information sharing among the different units and agencies, leading to greater collaboration and more successful outcomes., Civilian, NYPD, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The Canadian-born National Hockey League (NHL) has become more popular and more profitable due to its success within the North American market, particularly the United States. Because of this success, the NHL created its Global Series program to bring the world’s most premier ice hockey to fans across the world, starting with Europe. American influence on NHL culture, marketing, and business has allowed the league to globalize in Europe, and this globalization poses specific and unique threats that stakeholders may not be considering—for example, terrorism. This thesis considers how the NHL can prepare to deal with the threat of international terrorism while operating overseas to ensure the safety and security of their personnel and events. The thesis concludes that anti-Americanism is an underlying, persistent, and increasing threat in Europe as NHL overseas operations expand. Specifically, this thesis finds that anti-Americanism is often easily linked with anti-capitalism, anti-globalization, and anti-culturalization movements in Europe. Ultimately, the thesis recommends that NHL Global Series security stakeholders consider the anti-American threat and sentiment in a host nation to secure the games. Further, this thesis recommends that NHL executives also consider anti-Americanism when planning future expansions., http://archive.org/details/securingthenhlgl1094566629, Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems provide a unique problem for users in the law enforcement domain. On one hand, AI systems provide an opportunity for optimizations and faster workflows, especially in the environment of growing data. On the other hand, if left unchecked AI systems have the potential to negatively affect the community served by law enforcement. This research focuses on three types of AI systems currently used by law enforcement: facial recognition, predictive risk assessments, and predictive policing. By looking at these three types of AI systems, this research attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of the technology while maintaining the privacy, fairness, transparency, and accountability expected by the public. These three case studies show how AI systems can have a negative impact on individuals identified via AI systems and the need for further research into effective measures to regulate the technology. Additionally, the European Union is currently working on potential frameworks for responsible implementation of AI systems, which provide a template for future efforts in the United States.

This research examines the Coast Guard’s maritime security relationship with the Cuban Border Guard—before, during, and after normalization—through a qualitative case study comparison of five distinct mission areas: drug interdiction, migrant interdiction, search and rescue, marine environmental protection, and port security. By reviewing the aftereffects of the Trump administration’s rollback of U.S.-Cuba policy, specifically the impact on the Coast Guard-Cuban Border Guard security relationship, it is possible to recognize that such a policy reversal does not serve the national security interests of the United States. The operational focus of the Coast Guard’s maritime security cooperation with the Cuban Border Guard, combined with measured growth in mission areas of mutual concern, are key factors in the long-term success of this important relationship. With no significant concentration of bilateral security exchanges since 2018, the United States should take steps to reinvigorate law enforcement cooperation with Cuban authorities in areas such as counternarcotics, illegal migration, counterterrorism, and mass rescue operations., Commander, United States Coast Guard, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited