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Global warming is projected to result in changes in streamflow in West Africa with implications for frequent droughts and floods. This study investigates projected shifting in the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB) under climate change, using the method of circular statistics. River flow is simulated with the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), forced with bias-corrected climate projection datasets consisting of 43 regional and global climate model combinations under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Projected changes indicate that AMF increases between +1 % and +80 % across sub-basins, particularly in the near future (2021–2050), whereas MAM decreases between −19 % and −7 %, mainly from the late century (2071–2100), depending on RCPs. The date of occurrence of AMF is projected to change between −4 and +3 d, while MAM could shift between −4 and +14 d depending on scenarios over the 21st century. Annual high flows denote a strong seasonality with negligible future changes, whereas the seasonality of low flows has a higher variation, with a slight drop in the future.

Streamflow elasticity is the ratio of the expected percentage change in streamflow to a 1 % change in precipitation – a simple approximation of how responsive a river is to precipitation. Typically, streamflow elasticity is estimated for average annual streamflow; however, we propose a new concept in which streamflow elasticity is estimated for multiple percentiles across the full distribution of streamflow. This “elasticity curve” can then be used to develop a more complete depiction of how streamflow responds to climate. Representing elasticity as a curve which reflects the range of responses across the distribution of streamflow within a given time period, instead of as a single-point estimate, provides a novel lens through which we can interpret hydrological behaviour. As an example, we calculate elasticity curves for 805 catchments in the United States and then cluster them according to their shape. This results in three distinct elasticity curve types which characterize the streamflow–precipitation relationship at annual and seasonal timescales. Through this, we demonstrate that elasticity estimated from the central summary of streamflow, e.g. the annual median, does not provide a complete picture of streamflow sensitivity. Further, we show that elasticity curve shape, i.e. the response of different flow percentiles relative to one another in one catchment, can be interpreted separately from between-catchment variation in the average magnitude of streamflow change associated with a 1 % change in precipitation. Finally, we find that available water storage is likely the key control which determines curve shape.

The physical river characteristics datasets described here provide spatially consistent information to support hydrological and inundation modelling at a 1 km × 1 km resolution across the United Kingdom, on the British National Grid. The datasets of physical river characteristics provide gridded datasets (outflow drainage directions, catchment areas, widths of bankfull rivers and depths of bankfull rivers) and a comma-separated table of NRFA (National River Flow Archive) gauging station locations. These datasets are derived from a range of sources: outflow drainage directions, catchment area and bankfull river widths are derived from existing higher resolution datasets, whereas bankfull river depths were harder to source and instead are derived from sparse historical measurements. The new gridded datasets provide a derived value for each UK land cell on the British National Grid (BNG). The comma-separated NRFA gauging station locations table provides the most appropriate locations of 1,499 river flow gauging stations on the 1 km resolution grids, together with the approximate error in the 1 km × 1 km gridded delineation of the upstream catchment area. This article explains how UK-wide 1-km grids of these variables were estimated, their format and how to use them. The data are available from the Environmental Information Data Centre (EIDC).

The national-scale British Groundwater Model (BGWM) is implemented to simulate groundwater dynamics and budgets in Great Britain. Notwithstanding the challenges of integrating a very large amount of data, finding a trade-off between computational efficiency and realism, performing automatic calibration, and addressing multiple sources of structural and parameter uncertainty, a quantitative–qualitive evaluation approach showed that the BGWM provides a reasonably accurate digital representation of groundwater systems and processes at a national scale. In this work, the model was applied to understand the variability of budget components across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Comparisons showed regional differences linked to lithological and climatic factors, which in turn can be associated with more or less groundwater resilience to extreme climatic events. There is confidence that the current and future versions of the BGWM can become valuable tools for effective water resources management and adaptation strategies under future climatic and population changes.

Widespread afforestation has been proposed internationally to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide; however, the specific hydrological consequences and benefits of such large-scale afforestation (e.g. natural flood management) are poorly understood. We use a high-resolution land surface model, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), with realistic potential afforestation scenarios to quantify possible hydrological change across Great Britain in both present and projected climate. We assess whether proposed afforestation produces significantly different regional responses across regions; whether hydrological fluxes, stores and events are significantly altered by afforestation relative to climate; and how future hydrological processes may be altered up to 2050. Additionally, this enables determination of the relative sensitivity of land surface process representation in JULES compared to climate changes. For these three aims we run simulations using (i) past climate with proposed land cover changes and known floods and drought events; (ii) past climate with independent changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO2; and (iii) a potential future climate (2020–2050). We find the proposed scale of afforestation is unlikely to significantly alter regional hydrology; however, it can noticeably decrease low flows whilst not reducing high flows. The afforestation levels minimally impact hydrological processes compared to changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO2. Warming average temperatures (+3 °C) decreases streamflow, while rising precipitation (130 %) and CO2 (600 ppm) increase streamflow. Changes in high flow are generated because of evaporative parameterizations, whereas low flows are controlled by runoff model parameterizations. In this study, land surface parameters within a land surface model do not substantially alter hydrological processes when compared to climate.

Afforestation is of international interest for its positive benefits on carbon storage, ecology, and society, but its impacts on terrestrial and atmospheric processes are still poorly understood. This study presents the first use of a coupled land surface and convection permitting atmospheric model (CPM) to quantify hydrometeorological effects of afforestation across the United Kingdom, focusing on atmospheric processes often missing in hydrological models. Generating a scenario of 93 000 km2 (40%) additional woodland across the UK, the periods of 2042-2052 and 2062-2072 are analyzed. Simulated afforestation alters seasonal and regional UK hydrometeorology. Countrywide runoff increases in all seasons (between 5.4-11 mm and 4.3-8.6% per season) due to elevated subsurface flows from greater soil moisture. Evaporation decreases in summer (-20.6 mm, -10%) but increases in winter (8.1 mm, 15%) whereas rainfall increases throughout all seasons (between 2.2-6.86 mm and 0.9-2.2% per season). Greater winter rainfall is detected along Great Britain's west coastline as increased surface roughness produces prolonged and heavier rainfall. In the summer, higher albedo increases potential evapotranspiration and reduces near surface specific humidity: water is locked in deeper soil layers as transpiration diminishes and the topsoil dries out. However, the magnitude of hydrometeorological change due to altered land cover is smaller than the uncertainty in local climate change projections. This work sets a precedent in illustrating the impacts of afforestation on hydrology using a high-resolution CPM and highlights the importance of coupled hydrometeorological processes when investigating land cover impacts on hydrological processes.

Widespread afforestation has been proposed internationally to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide, however the specific hydrological consequences and benefits of such large-scale afforestation (e.g., Natural Flood Management) are poorly understood. We use a high-resolution land surface model, JULES, with realistic potential afforestation scenarios to quantify possible hydrological change across Great Britain in both present and projected climate. We assess whether proposed afforestation produces significantly different regional responses across regions; whether hydrological fluxes, stores and events are significantly altered by afforestation relative to climate; and how future hydrological processes may be altered up to 2050. Additionally, this enables determination of the relative sensitivity of land surface process representation in JULES compared to climate changes. For these three aims we run simulations using: (i) past climate with proposed land cover changes and known floods and drought events; (ii) past climate with independent changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO2; and (iii) a potential future climate (2020–2050). We find the proposed scale of afforestation is unlikely to significantly alter regional hydrology, however it can noticeably decrease low flows whilst not reducing high flows. The afforestation levels minimally impact hydrological processes compared to changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO2. Warming average temperatures (+ 3 °C) decreases streamflow, while rising precipitation (130 %) and CO2 (600 ppm) increase streamflow. Changes in high flow are generated because of evaporative parameterisations whereas low flows are controlled by runoff model parameterisations. In this study, land surface parameters within a land surface model do not substantially alter hydrological processes when compared to climate.

Droughts are among the most complex and devastating natural hazards globally. High-resolution datasets of drought metrics are essential for monitoring and quantifying the severity, duration, frequency, and spatial extent of droughts at regional and particularly local scales. However, current global drought indices are available only at a coarser spatial resolution (>50 km). To fill this gap, we developed four high-resolution (5 km) gridded drought records based on the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) covering the period 1981–2022. These multi-scale (1–48 months) SPEI indices are computed based on monthly precipitation (P) from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS, version 2) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP, version 2.8), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM, version 3.7a) and hourly Potential Evapotranspiration (hPET). We generated four SPEI records based on all possible combinations of P and PET datasets: CHIRPS_GLEAM, CHIRPS_hPET, MSWEP_GLEAM, and MSWEP_hPET. These drought records were evaluated globally and exhibited excellent agreement with observation-based estimates of SPEI, root zone soil moisture, and vegetation health indices. The newly developed high-resolution datasets provide more detailed local information and can be used to assess drought severity for particular periods and regions and to determine global, regional, and local trends, thereby supporting the development of site-specific adaptation measures. These datasets are publicly available at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA; https://doi.org/10.5285/ac43da11867243a1bb414e1637802dec) (Gebrechorkos et al., 2023).

Land surface models such as JULES (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) are usually run on a regular, rectilinear grid, resulting in gridded outputs for variables such as soil moisture and water fluxes. Here we investigate a method of clustering grid cells with similar characteristics together in JULES. Clustering grid cells has the potential to reduce computational expense as well as providing an alternative to tiling approaches for capturing sub-grid heterogeneity. In this study, we cluster grid cells exclusively in the land surface part of modelling, i.e., separate from river routing. We compare gridded and clustered soil moisture outputs from JULES with measurements from the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH) COSMOS-UK network and show that the clustering approach can model soil moisture well while reducing computational expense. However, soil moisture results are dependent on the characteristics used to create the clusters. We investigate the effect of using clusters on predicted river flows, and compare routed JULES outputs with NRFA gauge data in the catchment. We show that less expensive JULES clustered outputs give similar river flow results to standard gridded outputs when routed at the grid resolution, and are able to match observed river flow better than gridded outputs when routed at higher resolution.