1. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
- Author
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Ralf Merz, Maria Kireeva, Ardian Bilibashi, Marzena Osuch, Günter Blöschl, Jose Luis Salinas, Andrea Kiss, Thomas Kjeldsen, Attilio Castellarin, David Lun, Julia Hall, Conor Murphy, Neil Macdonald, Jamie Hannaford, Mojca Šraj, Alberto Montanari, Ján Szolgay, Klodian Zaimi, Ivan Radevski, Eric Sauquet, Valeryia Ovcharuk, Juraj Parajka, Daniele Ganora, Peter Molnar, Alberto Viglione, Donna Wilson, Silvia Kohnová, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Elena Volpi, Nenad Živković, Marco Borga, Pierluigi Claps, Berit Arheimer, Jarkko J. Koskela, Shaun Harrigan, Ondrej Ledvinka, Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova, Giovanni Battista Chirico, Ognjen Bonacci, Giuseppe Tito Aronica, Rui A. P. Perdigão, Luis Mediero, Ivan Čanjevac, Bruno Merz, Ali Gül, Miloň Boháč, Natalia Frolova, Bloschl G., Hall J., Viglione A., Perdigao R.A.P., Parajka J., Merz B., Lun D., Arheimer B., Aronica G.T., Bilibashi A., Bohac M., Bonacci O., Borga M., Canjevac I., Castellarin A., Chirico G.B., Claps P., Frolova N., Ganora D., Gorbachova L., Gul A., Hannaford J., Harrigan S., Kireeva M., Kiss A., Kjeldsen T.R., Kohnova S., Koskela J.J., Ledvinka O., Macdonald N., Mavrova-Guirguinova M., Mediero L., Merz R., Molnar P., Montanari A., Murphy C., Osuch M., Ovcharuk V., Radevski I., Salinas J.L., Sauquet E., Sraj M., Szolgay J., Volpi E., Wilson D., Zaimi K., Zivkovic N., Bloschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigao, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Bohac, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Canjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gul, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnova, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Sraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., Zivkovic, N., INSTITUTE OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAT WIEN AUT, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF BELGRADE SRB, DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT LAND AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING POLITECNICO DI TORINO TURIN ITA, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE POTSDAM GFZ GERMAN RESEARCH CENTRE FOR GEOSCIENCES POTSDAM DEU, DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF MESSINA ITA, CZECH HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE PRAGUE CZE, FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING ARCHITECTURE AND GEODESY SPLIT UNIVERSITY HRV, DEPARTMENT OF LAND ENVIRONMENT AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY UNIVERSITY OF PADOVA ITA 11, University of Zagreb, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL CHEMICAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND MATERIALS ENGINEERING UNIVERSITA DI BOLOGNA ITA, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF NAPLES FEDERICO II ITA, DEPARTMENT OF LAND HYDROLOGY LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY MOSCOW RUS, DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGICAL RESEARCH UKRAINIAN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KIEV UKR, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY IZMIR TUR, CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY WALLINGFORD GBR, FORECAST DEPARTMENT EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS READING GBR, DEPARTMENT OF ARCHITECTURE AND CIVIL ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF BATH GBR, DEPARTMENT OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING SLOVAK UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY IN BRATISLAVA SVK, CSE CONTROL SYSTEMS ENGINEER RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGY TIRANA ALB, FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE HELSINKI FIN, DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL GBR, INSTITUTE OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL GBR, UNIVERSITY OF ARCHITECTURE CIVIL ENGINEERING AND GEODESY SOFIA BGR, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING HYDRAULIC ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT UNIVERSIDAD POLITECNICA DE MADRID ESP, DEPARTMENT FOR CATCHMENT HYDROLOGY HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH HALLE DEU, INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING ETH ZURICH CHE, IRISH CLIMATE ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH UNITS DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY MAYNOOTH UNIVERSITY IRL, DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND HYDRODYNAMICS INSTITUTE OF GEOPHYSICS POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WARSAW POL, HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE ODESSA STATE ENVIRONMENTAL UNIVERSITY ODESSA UKR., RiverLy (UR Riverly), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), FACULTY OF CIVIL AND GEODETIC ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA SVN, Department of Engineering [Roma], Roma Tre University, NORWEGIAN WATER RESOURCES AND ENERGY DIRECTORATE OSLO NOR, INSTITUTE OF GEOSCIENCES ENERGY WATER AND ENVIRONMENT POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF TIRANA ALB, Blöschl, Günter, Hall, Julia, Viglione, Alberto, Perdigão, Rui A P, Parajka, Juraj, Merz, Bruno, Lun, David, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T, Bilibashi, Ardian, Boháč, Miloň, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Čanjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B, Claps, Pierluigi, Frolova, Natalia, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gül, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R, Kohnová, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J, Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Lui, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Salinas, José L, Sauquet, Eric, Šraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, and Živković, Nenad
- Subjects
History ,Time Factors ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Rain ,Geographic Mapping ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,SDG 13 - Climate Action ,020701 environmental engineering ,Multidisciplinary ,Flooding (psychology) ,food and beverages ,21st Century ,6. Clean water ,Europe ,20th Century ,VARIABILITY ,Climate Change ,Floods ,History, 20th Century ,History, 21st Century ,Seasons ,Rivers ,[SDE]Environmental Sciences ,population characteristics ,geographic locations ,0207 environmental engineering ,Climate change ,River floods ,FREQUENCY ,TERM ,Hydrology (agriculture) ,parasitic diseases ,medicine ,Precipitation ,General ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Flood myth ,fungi ,Seasonality ,medicine.disease ,Climate change, river flood discharge, Europe, risk management, flooding, climate change ,SEASONALITY ,13. Climate action ,Snowmelt ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Physical geography - Abstract
Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results—arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far—suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management. Analysis of a comprehensive European flood dataset reveals regional changes in river flood discharges in the past five decades that are consistent with models suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening.
- Published
- 2019
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