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A set of ATMs in commercial areas were considered for business transactions. Customer demand for money requires prompt cash supply; to harmonize optimality options for ATM cash loading to sustain customers. We formulated this tis decision as a multi-stage stochastic process with Markovian demand of ATM cash among customers. The loading and operations of the ATMs were governed by cash demand and supply; with unit (loading, operational, and shortage) costs. The study considered the ATM cash demand of ten ATMs in regions within commercial centres of Kampala city. The relevant data was collected every hour throughout four months. The task focused on optimizing cash-loading decisions that minimize the operational costs of managing ATMs. The optimality of cash loading decisions were determined using the Markov decision processes. The tested model revealed optimal state-dependent options and operational costs of managing ATMs cost-effectively. As a cost optimization strategy for managers in the banking industry, the productivity of ATMs towards improved efficiency and utilization of resources for cash provision to customers emerged; supporting a larger customer base for business transactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We derive a new theoretical model of money demand, which reflects backward‐ and forward‐looking preferences in consumption and utility. The former aspect is captured by standard habit formation, and the latter by anticipation of future consumption preferences. By introducing both of these into the Ramsey–Sidrauski framework, we unveil a new highly general model of money demand. We discuss the model in light of the apparent breakdown of money‐demand functions and diminished policy relevance of monetary aggregates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most widely researched macroeconomic relationships is money demand stability, which helps monetary authorities understand what motivates economic agents hold real money balances and whether it can predict inflation. However, endogenous structural shocks to macroeconomic fundamentals have often been criticized for distorting the equilibrium relationship among economic variables. These shocks usually stem from socioeconomic and political changes, behavior of economic agents, and random shocks. We examine the presence of cointegrating relationships between money demand and scale and opportunity cost variables while allowing for multiple endogenous structural breaks in the cointegrating vectors in the Indian context for the period 1996:Q2–2021:Q2. We utilize the Narayan and Popp (J Appl Stat 37(9):1425–1438, 2010) test to identify the break dates in each series and then employ the Maki (Econ Model 29(5):2011–2015, 2012) cointegration approach to establish the presence of long-run relationships between money demand and its covariates. Our study finds the presence of stable long-run relationships in the money demand function, implying that monetary authorities may target narrow and broad monetary aggregates as an indicator or treat them as an information variable to anchor the inflation expectations of economic agents under the current flexible inflation-targeting framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article hypothesizes that firms demand more money to maintain low and stable inventory in order to fully exploit the globalization of supply chains. Three test implications derived from the hypothesis are verified with the US data: that the ratio of money held by firms over M1 trends up and becomes more volatile, that the ratio would plunge if there is a tremendous shock to supply chains, and that the ratio positively impacts real money balance in the long run cointegrated equilibrium with real income and short-term interest rate as control variables. Elevated money demand from the firm sector could partially explain the missing inflation in the 2010s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we build a simple model on the role of households' liquidity preference in the determination of economic performance. We postulate, for the sake of the argument, a purely 'horizontalist' environment, i.e., a world of endogenous money where the central bank is able to fix the interest rate(s) at a level of its own willing. We show that even in such a framework liquidity preference, while obviously not constituting anymore a theory for the determination of the interest rate, continues to be a key element for the determination of both the level and evolution over time of aggregate income and capital accumulation. In our model, this happens because of the working of a mechanism so far unexplored in the literature, i.e., the endogenous variations of banks' policy of profits' distribution in response to changes in the liquidity preference of the public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops a macroeconomic model of interaction between the real sector and the financial sector, and explores the conditions that make the economy vulnerable to sudden collapse as a result of finance-led growth. It extends the Kaleckian framework of the link between profit and investment in a modern financialized economy with some specific features of shadow banking and articulates the underlying dynamics that render the economy systemically fragile and vulnerable to abrupt crashes. We elaborate on this link through a stock-flow consistent accounting framework and study the dynamics through two interacting forces of the shadow banking sector: profit-seeking and liquidity preference. The article formally articulates the dynamics through the framework of 'cusp catastrophe' and identifies some early warning signs of potential financial collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observed money demand in the U.S. had a stable negative relation with the interest rate up until the 1990s. After this period, this relation fell apart and has never been restored. We show that the central bank's ability to gather information, referred to as market intelligence (MI), matters to generate an upward‐sloping money demand curve. We calibrate the model to the U.S. data for the period from 1990 to 2019 and show that MI helps to match the money demand. We also show that it is beneficial for the society, since it mitigates the inefficiency associated with asymmetric information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined why consumers who typically pay electronically at points of sale still carry cash and explained the inertia of demand for cash by considering the additional (perceived by consumers) characteristics of cash. The research was motivated by the growing discussion on why cash, despite the increasing importance of e‐payments, remains a significant part of the demand for money. The study focused on psychological factors and consumers' perceptions of certain features of cash, which make it an attractive additional option for precautionary reasons, and therefore, explored beyond the typical discussion of money as a means of payment. The structural equation modeling based on data collected as part of a survey of Polish consumers was used to verify the hypotheses. It was revealed that cash becomes a reserve solution for consumers, which is kept "just in case" to expand the scope of personal freedom and flexibility in making payments and protect against various potential restrictions and threats related to e‐payments. Consumers' holding of cash as an additional option depends on three key factors: attitude toward cash, particularly the flexibility it offers, unusual purchasing situations, and perceived card or mobile payment risk, considered as a moderator. In the debate on the future of cash, the study supports the position that cash has a place in the modern payment system, although it plays a different role. Cash is a supportive backup solution. Eliminating cash significantly reduces consumer welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the long-run pattern of the U.S. nonfinancial corporate sector's liquid financial asset holdings in the period from 1951 to 2018. My approach to examining this pattern builds from the banks' liquidity preference theory put forward in Keynes' 1937 papers, as well as Minsky's 1957 paper discussing the role of financial innovation in the banks' management of liquidity preference. I argue that financial intermediaries affect nonfinancial corporations' liquid asset holdings through two primary money creation channels: (1) banks' commercial and industrial loans advanced to nonfinancial corporations and (2) the liquidity premium of financial intermediaries, which can be measured by the interest rate spread in the intermediaries' liabilities markets. Through theoretical and empirical exercises, I find that these two endogenous liquidity creation channels have been the important factors accounting for liquid asset accumulation by the nonfinancial corporate sector. Overall, my results suggest that financial innovations, structural changes of the U.S. financial system, and financial intermediaries' liquidity premium could contribute to our understanding of the shift in nonfinancial corporations' asset portfolio composition in favor of liquid financial assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bank-created money, shadow-bank money, and Treasury bonds all satisfy investors' demand for liquidity. We measure the quantity of these forms of liquidity and their corresponding liquidity premium in a sample from 1934 to 2016, estimating the substitutability of these assets and the liquidity per unit delivered by each asset. Treasuries and bank transaction deposits are imperfect substitutes, in contrast to perfect substitutes found by Nagel (2016). Bank and nonbank non-transaction deposits are closer substitutes for Treasuries. Our empirical results inform theories of the monetary transmission mechanism running through shifts in asset supplies and models of the coexistence of the shadow banking and regulated banking system. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs the money demand function including the variable of electronic payments while adopting the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to investigate the relationship between electronic payments and money demand in China. The empirical results show that there is the cointegration among the variables in the constructed function with stability, and the e-payment variable is negatively correlated with the demand for money. According to the findings of this paper, in the long run, for every 1 percent increase in the e-payment variable, the demand for M1 will decrease by approximately 0.01 percent. In addition, the money demand function that contains the e-payment variable performs better than the one that does not in the forecast evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the asymmetric effects of expected oil wealth on the demand for money in Nigeria over the period 1986:Q1-2020:Q4, by using linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) approaches. The linear (ARDL) bounds testing approach shows that expected oil wealth has no significant effect both in the short and long run. However, when a NARDL model is applied, the effect of negative and positive expected oil wealth shocks on the demand for money is significant and unequal in the long run, with a higher long-term impact of negative shocks compared to positive shocks. This result highlights a long-run asymmetry in the transmission of expected oil wealth shocks. Expected oil wealth is thus rather a long-run phenomenon for the Nigerian money demand function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze various determinants of the average price level using a strictly mathematical approach. Starting with the microeconomic perspective, we review the effect of demand shifters such as consumer income and the level of advertising on the average price level in a simple partial market equilibrium model. Then, we discuss the effect of supply shifters such as the exogenous tax level, worker wage, rental rate, and technology. We use implicit differentiation and Jacobian determinants. While government spending triggers inflation, taxes have the opposite effect. This is consistent with Keynesian theory. Money supply increases national income and prices while reducing the equilibrium interest rate. Therefore, money supply has pro-inflationary effects. The effect of money demand is the opposite—it increases the equilibrium interest rate, thereby lowering national income and prices. Augmenting the model to the level of international trade, we find that exports raise national income, the interest rate, and the average price level, while the effect of imports is just the opposite. Government spending raises the exchange rate while continuous inflation lowers it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Central Bank, acting on behalf of the government, uses monetary policy to influence economic and financial activities in order to achieve price stability while also considering economic growth. The circulation of money supply in an economy is affected by monetary policy, which is reflected in the development of various economic and financial variables such as money supply, credit, exchange rates, and interest rates. This study analyzes the impact of inflation, interest rates, and e-money on money demand in Indonesia using a quantitative approach. The data used in this research are inflation, interest rates, e-money, and money demand from 2017 to 2022, sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia. The Error Correction Model (ECM) model is used for data analysis. The long-term ECM test results show that inflation has a significant negative effect on money demand, while interest rates do not have a significant effect on money demand. In the long term, the e-money variable has a significant positive effect on the demand for money. In the short term, however, inflation and interest rates do not affect the demand for money in Indonesia, while the e-money variable has a significant effect on the demand for money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though the literature on unregistered economic activity is growing at an increasing rate, we commonly encounter simple ordinary least squares methods and panel regressions, largely ignoring the recent rapid developments in machine learning methods. This study provides a new approach to more accurately estimate the size of the non-observed economy using machine learning methods. Compared to two currency demand-based models used to estimate the size of the non-observed economy, we show that a Random Forest algorithm can more accurately estimate the demand for currency, which is known to provide a fair estimation of the unregistered economic activity. The proposed approach shows superior forecasting capabilities compared to the current state-of-the-art linear regression-based methods dedicated to estimating non-observed economic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and firm risk on working capital management policies among manufacturing firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). The study sample consists of 1200 observations and 200 companies listed on the TSE over a six-year period from 2016 to 2021; furthermore, the statistical method used to test the hypotheses is ordinary least squares (OLS). The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic has led managers to increase current assets to total assets ratio (CATAR), current ratio (CR), quick ratio (QR), net working capital (NWC), cash to current assets (CTCA) ratio, while it has caused a decrease in operational cycle (OC), days account receivables (DAR), and current liabilities to total assets ratio (CLTAR). Furthermore, we find that the higher the company's risk, the more managers are motivated to embrace the working capital investment policy, net working capital, cash to current assets ratio, and cash conversion efficiency (CCE). In general, our findings indicate that during times of crisis, Iranian companies tend to adopt conservative working capital policies to ensure sufficient liquidity to respond appropriately to unforeseen events. In this study, the theory of liquidity preference aligns with the observed behavior of firms in response to the COVID-19 crisis and firm risk, where the emphasis on liquidity and short-term financial stability becomes paramount. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paul Davidson (1930–2024) was a prominent figure in Post Keynesian economics. He co-founded and served as the editor of the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics and organized the Post Keynesian International Workshop. Davidson's intellectual contributions include a focus on non-neoclassical uncertainty and its relation to money, liquidity, and liquidity preference, as well as the role of government in the economy. He also made significant contributions to the understanding of asset choice, the interaction between financial and goods markets, and the determination of asset liquidity. Davidson's work extended Post Keynesian macroeconomics to the global economy and he proposed reforms to the international monetary system. While he drew heavily on Keynes's writings, he did not explore the connections between The General Theory and Keynes's A Treatise on Probability. Davidson's contributions to Post Keynesian economics were significant, although there were some disagreements among scholars regarding certain aspects of his work. [Extracted from the article]

Paul Davidson, a prominent economist in the Post Keynesian community, passed away on June 20, 2024. He was known for his contributions to the development of Post Keynesian macroeconomic theory and his critique of mainstream economics. Davidson's work provided a foundation for subsequent generations of Post Keynesians, and he encouraged debate and discussion within the field. He also played a role in establishing the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, which provided a platform for the exchange of ideas among like-minded economists. Davidson's work extended beyond academia, as he addressed policy issues and advised policymakers. He made significant contributions to the field of monetary economics, particularly in relation to the non-neutrality of money and the international monetary system. Despite his passing, Davidson's ideas continue to influence and inspire new generations of economists seeking to promote a better world. [Extracted from the article]

In this study, an analytical framework of non-linear co-integration theory is applied to empirically analyze the Chinese money demand function data from Q1 1994 to Q3 2017. The results show that it neglects non-linearities in all variables and that M1 and M2 have long-run nonlinear equilibrium relationships with real GDP, interest rate, inflation rate, the effective exchange rate of RMB, and trade dependence. Further, an enhanced BP neural network is applied to estimate the long-run equilibrium equation, and it is found that the marginal coefficients of M2 are more stable than those of M1. It is suggested that although China was much less dependent on foreign trade since the 2008 financial crisis, the RMB-USD exchange rate and financial variables outside China had a slight impact on China's money demand because of its closed financial market so that the financial crisis had little effect on China's financial system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between Mexican money demand and three economic factors: real income, inflation rate and exchange rate, and the relationship between exchange rate and money demand is the most concerned. Using the quarterly data of Mexico from 2000 to 2022, we explore whether the exchange rate will symmetrically affect the demand for money in the short and long term. The results show that in the long run, the impact of real income and inflation rate on money demand is the same as the conjecture, both are positive. However, the present paper does not find an asymmetric effect of the exchange rate, possibly due to the lack of research data or the short time span. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study shows that demand for money is a function not only of interest rate, real exchange rate, and personal consumption but also of fiscal variables like deficit, debt, and foreign-financed debt. It is stable over the short and long run. This study also covers the investigation of policy invariance of money demand, an important issue ignored so far in the existing literature on the demand for money in the United States. It was found that the behavior of agents in the money market changes as the real exchange rate, consumption, and interest rate change. Namely, agents in the money market are forward-looking, and their expectations are formed rationally. This also means that even though the parameters of money demand are stable, according to the stability test results, they can be unstable, as agents adapt their behavior based on any change in the exchange rate, consumption, and/or interest rate. In other words, the contemporaneous real exchange and interest rate variables are not superexogenous in demand for M1, and the contemporaneous consumption is not superexogenous in demand for M2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the political economy of fiscal dominance during the Chilean government (1970–73) of Salvador Allende. Fiscal dominance appears when the monetary authority complies with the fiscal authority's demand to buy treasury bonds and monetise the deficit. It is argued that persistent fiscal dominance is inflationary, especially without robust fiscal and monetary rules. The Allende government financed the deficit with present taxes, debt (future taxes) and monetary issuance (inflation tax), causing the crowding‐out effect and, together with other policies such as expropriation and price controls, collapsed the demand for money, triggering hyperinflation. The lessons of Chile clarify the fiscal trigger of the inflation, stagnation, and widespread poverty that has affected Latin American countries in recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Venture capitalists invest not only in the business aspect of a deal but also in its contractual terms. Therefore, the selection of deals and the combination of contractual terms pose challenging decisions for them. This paper consists of two main sections. The first section introduces a novel framework for the valuation of venture capital (VC) deals, including startups and their contractual terms. By taking into account risk situations, this section presents the valuation of combined contractual terms, including call options, liquidity preference, and participant rights. In the second section, a new multiobjective mathematical model for VC deals and contractual terms portfolio selection is developed using right-tail probability, strategy alignment, and a utility function. To solve the proposed model, three metaheuristic algorithms—Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II), Multi-Objective Binary Harmony Search Algorithm, and Dynamic Tuning Parameter Binary Harmony Search Algorithm (DTPBHS)—are applied. Based on numerical examples, DTPBHS outperforms other algorithms in the "Mean Ideal Distance" index, but NSGA-II demonstrates the best performance in the "Rate of Achievement of two objectives simultaneously" index. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed utility function is more robust than the right-tail probability function under default deals conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional theories of term structure of interest rate consist of four major classical theories, including Pure Expectation Theory, Liquidity Preference Theory, Preferred Habitat Theory and Market Segmentation Theory. However, they cannot be well interpreted by the traditional static term structure of interest rate methods such as polynomial spline and exponential spline. To address problems on low precision and weak stability of traditional methods in constructing static interest rate term structure curve, in this paper, we introduce the tension interpolation spline based on a fourth-order differential equation with local tension parameters calculated by Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) algorithm. Our primary focus is to illustrate its better prediction effect and stability with an empirical study conducted using datum of treasury bonds. Then, we divided the datum into intra-sample datum for estimating tension parameters and out-of-sample datum for evaluating their robustness of predicting stochastics collected from Shanghai Stock Exchange on 2nd February, 2019. According to the principle of total least squares and total least absolute deviations, the result shows that the tension interpolation spline model has better precision and stronger stability in prediction of out-of-sample treasury bonds prices compared with the model established by polynomial spline and exponential spline. In addition, it can better explain the Liquidity Preference Theory, which confirms that it is suitable for constructing the static term structure of interest rates in the securities exchange market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal Public Administration & Social Management / Administração Pública e Gestão Social is the property of Administracao Publica e Gestao Social and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Optimal monetary policy, under flexible and sticky prices, and sticky nominal wages are studied in the canonical matching model of the labor market with a working capital channel. A money demand by firms is motivated by the fact that a significant amount of M1 is held by firms. As a result of the working capital, the Ramsey-optimal monetary policy calls for inflation when employment is above the socially efficient level and for deflation when it is below that level. This result holds under flexible wages as well as nominal wage rigidities. In other words, to improve labor market efficiency, deflation is necessary to "grease the wheels of the labor market." Although there is no relationship between optimal monetary policy and the market tightness under flexible prices, a long-run and mainly negative relationship between the optimal inflation rate and the equilibrium tightness emerges under sticky prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate elasticities of substitution between components of the Bank of England's household-sector UK Divisia monetary aggregate using quarterly data from 1999 to 2019, encompassing the period surrounding the global financial crisis. The demand system includes interest-bearing sight and time deposits at monetary financial institutions as components, since deposit data for banks (excluding mutuals) and for mutuals are no longer published separately. We find that the elasticities of substitution that relate to changes in the user cost of noninterest-bearing monetary assets imply inelastic substitution over all or almost all of the sample and, consequently, a conventional monetary aggregate would be a highly misleading economic indicator relative to a Divisia monetary aggregate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the role of private information in the equity lending market in a rational expectations model with endogenous loan fees. When all investors are privately informed, an increase in information precision reduces the fee by increasing trade aggressiveness and decreasing demand dispersion. However, when some investors are uninformed, the information asymmetry tends to increase the fee, and, thus, the overall effect of an increase in precision is ambiguous. We show that the fee can be incrementally informative given the stock price and that fee opaqueness tends to increase the fee but has an ambiguous effect on the stock price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of cash for payments is not well measured. This paper argues that the value of cash withdrawn from automated teller machines (ATMs), or as a share of all payments, provides a more accurate and timely measure of the cash used for payments compared with the standard measure of the value of currency in circulation (CIC), or as a ratio to gross domestic product (GDP). CIC is a stock of cash used for legal payments, hoarding and illegal activities, but lacks a corresponding measure of the velocity or turnover of that cash used for payments. Cash from ATMs is a flow. It reflects both a stock of cash and its velocity and is primarily used for legal transactions. This paper compares these two measures for 14 advanced and emerging market economies, which together account for one-half of the world's population and two-thirds of world GDP. The time pattern of both measures over 2005–2020 is illustrated graphically. Often, one measure rises while the other falls, or one is stable while the other is not, or both are rising or falling but at different rates. After reaching a peak in cash use between 2005 and 2018, the per capita share of cash withdrawn from ATMs in almost all of our countries begins to fall, consistent with what some merchants report, while CIC keeps rising. A measure of cash from ATMs may better inform monetary policy (demand for money) and regulatory decisions concerning access to and use of cash in a country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market using weekly U.S. data, following the work of Serletis and Istiak (2016). In doing so, vector autoregression (VAR) is adopted, and we allow rich interdependence between monetary policy and the stock market. The model is identified by exploiting the conditional heteroscedasticity of the reduced form VAR error terms. Two structural shocks – money demand and supply shocks – are extracted. The findings show a positive money demand shock, which increases the interest rate, decreases the stock price. On the other hand, a positive money supply shock does not significantly increase the stock price. We find that the impulse responses of stock prices are symmetric in positive and negative money supply shocks. It follows that money supply shocks do not have asymmetric effects on the stock market in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bank regulations affect the behaviour of credit and money creation; hence, they are essential for economic growth and stability. This paper develops an analytical model of the monetary circuit to show the macroeconomic effects of money creation under bank regulations. It describes the equilibrium in which banks create money in accordance with capital adequacy ratios or net stable funding ratios. This study reveals the equilibrium economic growth rate and debt level. In addition, this paper demonstrates how bank regulations influence firm capital structures, and the conditions for firms using debt and filing for bankruptcy. Results show that bank regulations can transfer risk from banks to firms. In fact, this study identifies a channel through which banks actively influence the macroeconomy through their money creation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate money demand functions for the UK, the Euro area and the US using Divisia monetary aggregates and investigate the extent to which the uncertainty caused by Brexit and Covid have affected these relationships. Our cointegrated VAR analysis shows that for all three economies Brexit and/or Covid have had some impact on the stability of money demand functions. We find that including a measure of stock market volatility in the money demand specifications helps re-establish stability of the models, particularly for the UK and the Euro area. We also explore the uncertainty and money demand relationship in the context of a Markov-switching model. We find that the effect of uncertainty on the demand for money is more pronounced during periods of heightened uncertainty. The findings of this study lend support to studies calling for Divisia aggregates to be given a more prominent role in policymaking, especially when interest rates are in the zero lower bound environment and are less informative about the stance of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper empirically investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the UK money demand stability during the inter-war period (1920–1938). Both a narrow definition (M0) and a broad definition (M3) of money are investigated. Design/methodology/approach: The empirical investigation is conducted by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. Findings: Results presented indicate a stable demand for both definitions of money only when EPU is included as one of the determinants of demand function. The EPU imposes a negative effect on the demand for both definitions of money. The causality test results further indicate long- and short-term causality from the determinants (including EPU) to both forms of money demand. Practical implications: Significant presence of the economic uncertainty weakens the effects of the monetary policy on the economy. Originality/value: This is a historical economics paper. Given the turmoil and uncertainty associated with the inter-war period, an empirical investigation of UK money demand is an interesting exercise. This is the first such paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During financial and economic crises, government expenditure is a potential source of liquidity and replacement for private demand; this expenditure, in turn, generates more deposits and spending in the economy at large, potentially increasing the endogenous supply of money and overall liquidity in a given economy. Governments may also require liquidity support during crises, if bond market activity constrains access to funding. This paper introduces government activity to Mott's elaboration of Kalecki's theory of increasing risk, and its implications for endogenous money creation, especially during periods of heightened liquidity preference. Some governments are likely to face greater obstacles in providing liquidity and accessing funding in times of economic uncertainty, whether due to their issuance of a non-sovereign currency, their position in the global currency hierarchy, or both, while others may find their ability to provide liquidity is bolstered by popular perceptions of their credit worthiness. Recent crises illustrate the importance of understanding the monetary and financial factors that may constrain governments' abilities to fund deficits, especially given the importance of fiscal expenditure as a stabilizing economic force, or as a potential driver of development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous discussions on money and financial institutions have been advanced both between and within economic theories. Heterodox schools of thought consider money to be non-neutral, with causality running from money demand to money supply and the interest rate as a monetary and distributive variable. In this paper we discuss the views of Michał Kalecki and John Maynard Keynes on money and the operation of financial institutions. Kalecki and Keynes formulated the theory of effective demand, specifically in terms of its effects on economic growth and financial instability. Nonetheless, in line with the work of Tracy Mott, we argue that Kalecki's analyses of the financial system are more profound because they better capture the complexity of the oligopolistic financial system, providing the foundations for Keynes' liquidity preference theory. As a result, it may be concluded that the main problem of economic growth and investment spending is the structure of corporate finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tracy Mott was best known as a scholar of the work of Michal Kalecki, but he also made an important contribution to Keynesian liquidity preference theory. In 1983 Tom Asimakopulos generated a firestorm in the Post Keynesian community with a series of articles claiming that while Keynes's argument is that investment creates an equivalent amount of saving, this is true only ex post, after the multiplier has fully operated. Meantime, lack of savings could inhibit investment as the supply of bonds for long-term finance would exceed the supply of savings, driving up interest rates. Several Post Keynesians vociferously responded in defense of Keynes. Mott's contribution to the debate approached the subject from a perspective that was more heavily influenced by Kalecki, Robinson, and Marx. Not only does the outcome of this debate impact our view of investment finance, but it also has implications for our view of financing government deficits. In this piece, I look back at Mott's contribution to our understanding of liquidity preference, taking account of developments in Post Keynesian thought over the past four decades. The two most obvious and relevant are the endogenous money approach and Modern Money Theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using contract-level supervisory data, we show that dollar forward sales by non-U.S. banks that are initiated at the end of a quarter and mature shortly after it concludes trade at higher prices and higher volumes. These effects are driven by banks with large net on-balance-sheet dollar assets that they can hedge around quarter ends by selling dollars forward (increasing off-balance-sheet short positions), which suggests regulatory arbitrage to reduce capital charges for open foreign exchange (FX) exposure. Our results indicate that demand effects related to banks' management of FX exposure are an important driver of deviations from covered interest rate parity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given their actual revenue and spending, most net equity issuers and an overwhelming majority of net debt issuers would face immediate cash depletion without external financing. Debt issuers tend to have short-lived cash needs, while equity issuers often have persistent cash needs. On average, debt issuers immediately spend almost all of the proceeds, while equity issuers retain much of the proceeds in cash. Anticipated near-future cash needs and fixed costs of financing help explain the fraction of the proceeds being retained. Our findings support a funding-horizon theory in which cash needs and the nature of cash needs motivate financing decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document a hump-shaped relation between corporate cash and both real and nominal interest rates in both aggregate and firm-level data. We rationalize this result in a model where firms finance investment with cash and risky debt. The risky rate rises endogenously with the risk-free rate, spurring precautionary cash demand. Simultaneously, foregone interest lowers cash demand. The first mechanism dominates at low interest rates, and the second at high interest rates. The model matches several data moments and reproduces a nonmonotonic cash–interest relation. This nonmonotonicity implies that interest rates are unlikely to be behind the recent rise in corporate cash. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a long-run study of the relationship between autonomous and induced demand for the United States. Our exercise can be considered a contribution to the burgeoning literature revolving around autonomous demand-led growth models, which have displayed the potential to establish bridges not only within the post-Keynesian community, but also between post-Keynesian economics and other evolutionary and pluralistic approaches to economic growth. In particular, we study the long-run dynamic relationship between autonomous demand – which comprises R&D expenditures, government spending, exports and residential investment – and induced demand. Through a cointegration model with quantile-varying coefficients, we account for the possibility of changes in the relationship between the two variables and demonstrate that the long-run equilibrium relationship between autonomous and induced demand is robust to exogenous shocks and changes in the parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper undertakes both a narrow and wide replication of the estimation of a money demand function conducted by Ireland (American Economic Review, 2009). Using US data from 1980 to 2013, we show that the substantial increase in the money‐income ratio during the period of near‐zero interest rates is captured well by the log–log specification but not by the semi‐log specification, contrary to the result obtained by Ireland (2009). Our estimate of the interest elasticity of money demand over the 1980–2013 period is about one‐tenth that of Lucas's paper published in 2000, which used a log–log specification. Finally, neither specification satisfactorily fits post‐2015 US data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Comparative empirical evidence for 22 OECD countries shows that country differences in cumulative mortality impacts of SARS-CoV-2 are caused by weaknesses in public health competences, pre-existing variances in structural socio-economic and public health vulnerabilities, and the presence of fiscal constraints. Remarkably, the (fiscally non-constrained) U.S. and the U.K. stand out, as they experience mortality outcomes similar to those of fiscally-constrained countries. High COVID19 mortality in the U.S. and the U.K. is due to pre-existing socio-economic and public health vulnerabilities, created by the following macroeconomic policy errors: (a) a deadly emphasis on fiscal austerity (which diminished public health capacities, damaged public health and deepened inequalities); (b) an obsessive belief in a trade-off between 'efficiency' and 'equity', which is mostly used to justify extreme inequality; (c) a complicit endorsement by mainstream macro of the unchecked power over monetary and fiscal policy-making of global finance and the rentier class; and (d) an unhealthy aversion to raising taxes, which deceives the public about the necessity to raise taxes to counter the excessive liquidity preference of the rentiers and to realign the interests of finance and of the real economy. The paper concludes by outlining a few lessons for a saner macroeconomics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic and foreign money balances in emerging European countries are influenced by foreign exchange considerations. A well‐specified and stable relationship between real money demand and the exchange rate can be perceived as an important part of a successful monetary policy. This study examines the long‐run determinants of real exchange rates (RERs) associated with the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach and identifies currency misalignments in these countries. The misalignment is later used to test the nonlinear behavior of the demand for money. The results indicate that the RER misalignments have a significant impact on domestic money demand. When the currencies are overvalued, there is a reduction in domestic money demand, and when they are undervalued, there is an increase in domestic money demand. Furthermore, it can be concluded that overvaluation causes an increase in foreign money demand indicating a shift of preference from domestic to foreign currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study shows that demand for money is a function not only of interest rate, real exchange rate, and personal consumption but also of fiscal variables like deficit, debt, and foreign-financed debt. It is stable over the short and long run. This study also covers the investigation of policy invariance of money demand, an important issue ignored so far in the existing literature on the demand for money in the United States. It was found that the behavior of agents in the money market changes as the real exchange rate, consumption, and interest rate change. Namely, agents in the money market are forward-looking, and their expectations are formed rationally. This also means that even though the parameters of money demand are stable, according to the stability test results, they can be unstable, as agents adapt their behavior based on any change in the exchange rate, consumption, and/or interest rate. In other words, the contemporaneous real exchange and interest rate variables are not superexogenous in demand for M1, and the contemporaneous consumption is not superexogenous in demand for M2.

We present broad-based evidence that the monthly payment cycle induces systematic patterns in liquid markets around the globe. First, we document temporary increases in the costs of debt and equity capital that coincide with key dates associated with month-end cash needs. Second, we present direct and indirect evidence on the role of institutions in the genesis of these patterns and derive estimates of the associated costs borne by market participants. Third, and finally, we investigate the limits to arbitrage that prevent markets from functioning efficiently. Our results indicate that many investors and their agents, including mutual funds, suffer from liquidity-related trading. Received January 16, 2018; editorial decision January 2, 2019 by Editor Robin Greenwood. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the roles of short- and long-term private and government interest rates and inside and outside money in the monetary transmission mechanism. With money and credit markets present, changes in monetary policy set off a chain of relative price and portfolio adjustments affecting output and prices. I study interest rate and money supply rules within this monetary transmission mechanism by estimating several Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) on a quarterly U.S. sample from 1960 to 2018. The best-fit MS-BVAR restricts MS to the impact and lag coefficients of the monetary policy and money demand regressions as well as to the stochastic volatilities (SVs) of the structural shocks. Estimates of this MS-BVAR yield evidence of a SV regime which coincides with NBER-dated recessions. This MS-BVAR also identifies a regime switch in the Fed's interest rate rule and banks' demand for outside money around the dot-com bust of 2000 and again from the 2007–2009 recession and financial crisis to the end of the sample. Counterfactual simulations show the 2007–2009 recession and financial crisis would have not been as deep and long-lasting if the fed funds rate had been as low as −8 % in 2009 and remained negative from 2010 through 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy measures, including large-scale purchase of government bonds (quantitative easing). The same approach has been taken by CBs in response to the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 even if the characteristics of this crisis differ from the previous one. As a result of both crises, CBs have become major holders of government bonds and de facto – main creditors of governments. Against rapidly deteriorating fiscal balances, CBs have become hostages of fiscal policies, which compromises their independence. Risks to the CB independence also come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist political pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]