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We propose a model for multiple waves of an epidemic that decomposes the health outcome of interest into the sum of scaled skew normal curves. When applied to daily COVID-19 mortality in six regions (Japan, Italy, Belgium, Ontario, Texas, and Peru), this model provides three notable results. First, when fit to data from early 2020 to May 31, 2022, the estimated skew normal curves substantially overlap with the dates of COVID-19 waves in Ontario and Belgium, as determined by their respective health authorities. Second, the asymmetry of the skew normal curves changes over time – they progress from increasing more quickly to decreasing more quickly, indicating changes in the relative speed that daily COVID-19 mortality rises and falls over time. Third, most regions have day-of-the-week effects, which suggests that day-of-the-week effects should be included when modeling daily COVID-19 mortality. We conclude by discussing limitations and possible extensions of this model and its results, including commenting on its applicability to potential future COVID-19 waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and daily mortality rate from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CCVD) in cold regions of northern China, as well as to identify the primary sources of PM2.5. A time series analysis model was used to calculate the exposure-response relationship between PM2.5 and CCVD mortality in Harbin. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was employed to analyze the sources of PM2.5. After adjusting for multiple pollutant combinations, the maximum excess risk of cardio-cerebrovascular death on the day of PM2.5 exposure was 0.42% (95% CI: 0.15%-0.70%). Stratification by gender and age revealed that the elderly individuals and men were particularly susceptible to PM2.5 exposure. The source analysis identified seven major pollution sources contributing to PM2.5 in Harbin. Our findings strengthen the evidence that PM2.5 is an independent risk factor for daily CCVD mortality, identify vulnerable populations that require special attention, and pinpoint the primary sources of PM2.5 in Harbin. These findings provide reference points for effectively reducing the health risks associated with PM2.5 exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ObjectiveTo study the short-term exposure to ambient particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) on daily mortality in residents of six typical cities in central and western Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (Inner Mongolia) to provide evidence for the development of air pollution control policies. MethodsData on daily mortality of permanent residents in six typical cities in central and western Inner Mongolia during 2017 – 2021 were collected from the Death Registration and Reporting Information System of municipal disease prevention and control centers, and data on daily meteorological conditions were collected from the municipal meteorological bureaus of the six cities, including Hohhot, Baotou, Ordos, Bayannur, Wuhai, and Alxa League. The daily average atmospheric PM10, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) during the same period were calculated from the detection records of 24 national air pollutant monitoring stations in the six cities. A generalized linear model was used to quantitatively assess the relationship between PM10 exposure and daily mortality among residents of these cities, with stratified analysis by gender, age, education, and marital status. ResultsFor the six cities during the 5-year period, the daily mean PM10 concentration was 89.17 ± 84.71 μg/m3; the daily mean number of total non-accidental deaths, deaths from respiratory diseases, and deaths from circulatory diseases were 71 ± 15, 10 ± 4, and 34 ± 10, respectively. Single-day lag effect analysis showed that a 10 μg/m3 increase in daily mean PM10 concentration was associated with increased total non-accidental mortality (excess risk [ER] = 0.11%, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 0.03% – 0.20%) and circulatory disease mortality (ER = 0.12%, 95%CI: 0.03% – 0.20%) at lag day 0 in all residents and increased non-accidental mortality in female residents (ER = 0.17%, 95%CI: 0.05% – 0.30%), older residents ≥ 65 years (ER = 0.15%, 95%CI: 0.05% – 0.25%), residents with a junior high school education or less (ER = 0.12%, 95%CI: 0.02% – 0.22%), and unmarried residents (ER = 0.25%, 95%CI: 0.11% – 0.39%). Cumulative lag effect analysis showed that a 10 μg/m3 increase in daily mean PM10 concentration was associated with increased total non-accidental mortality (ER = 0.25%, 95%CI: 0.08% – 0.42%) and circulatory disease mortality (ER = 0.26%, 95%CI: 0.03% – 0.50%) at lag day 7 in all residents and increased non-accidental mortality in female residents (ER = 0.47%, 95%CI: 0.22% – 0.72%), older residents ≥ 65 years (ER = 0.33%, 95%CI: 0.13% – 0.52%), residents with a junior high school education or less (ER = 0.25%, 95%CI: 0.06% – 0.45%), and married residents (ER = 0.32%, 95%CI: 0.03% – 0.61%); a 10 μg/m3 increase in daily mean PM10 concentration was also associated with increased total non-accidental mortality among married residents (ER = 0.34%, 95%CI : 0.07% – 0.61%) on lag day 6. ConclusionExposure to PM10 is associated with increased total non-accidental mortality and circulatory disease mortality among all residents and the increased total non-accidental mortality and circulatory disease mortality are much more significant among female residents, older residents ≥ 65 years, residents with a junior high school education or less, and unmarried residents in six typical cities in central and western Inner Mongolia.

Although the association between air pollution and mortality is well established, less is known about the effects in different age groups. This study analyzes the short-term associations between mortality in different age groups (0–14 years of age, 15–64 years of age, and 65+ years of age) and a number of air pollutants in two relatively clean northern European capitals: Stockholm and Tallinn. The concentrations in PM10 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 10 µm), PM2.5–10 (coarse particles), PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 2.5 µm), BC (black carbon), PNC4 (particle number count of particles larger than or equal to 4 nm), NO2 (nitrogen dioxide), and O3 (ozone) were measured during the period of 2000–2016 in Stockholm and 2001–2018 in Tallinn (except for BC and PNC4 which were only measured in Stockholm). The excess risks in daily mortality associated with an interquartile range (IQR) increase in the measured air pollutants were calculated in both single- and multi-pollutant models for lag01 and lag02 (average concentration during the same and the previous day, and the same and the previous two days, respectively) using a quasi-Poisson regression model with a logistic link function. In general, the calculated excess risks per IQR increase were highest in the age group 0–14 years of age in both Stockholm and Tallinn. However, in Stockholm, a statistically significant effect was shown for PM2.5–10, and in Tallinn for O3. In the oldest age group (65+), statistically significant effects were shown for both PM2.5–10, PM10, and O3 in Stockholm, and for O3 in Tallinn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the associations between daily mortality and short‐term variations in the ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) in four cities in Canada. First, a novel multivariate time series model within Bayesian framework is proposed for exposure assessment, where the response is a mixture of Gamma and Half‐Cauchy distributions and the correlations between pollutants vary seasonally. A case‐crossover design and conditional logistic regression model is used to relate exposure to disease data for each city, which then are combined to obtain a global estimate of exposure health effects allowing exposure uncertainty. The results suggest that every 10 ppb increase in O3 is associated with a 3.88% (95% credible interval [CI], 2.5%, 5.18%) increase in all‐cause mortality, a 5.04% (2.84%, 7.43%) increase in circulatory mortality, a 7.87% (2.4%, 12.9%) increase in respiratory mortality, a 0.76% (0.19%, 1.35%) increase in all‐cause morbidity and a 6.6% (0.58%, 12.7%) increase in respiratory morbidity. Similarly, every 10 ppb increase in NO2 is associated with a 2.13% (0.42%, 3.87%) increase in circulatory morbidity. The health impacts of PM2.5 are not found to be present once other pollutants are accounted for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The evidence on the association between ultrafine (UFP) particles and mortality is still inconsistent. Moreover, health effects of specific UFP sources have not been explored. We assessed the impact of UFP sources on daily mortality in Barcelona, Helsinki, London, and Zurich. Methods: UFP sources were previously identified and quantified for the four cities: daily contributions of photonucleation, two traffic sources (fresh traffic and urban, with size mode around 30 nm and 70 nm, respectively), and secondary aerosols were obtained from data from an urban background station. Different periods were investigated in each city: Barcelona 2013–2016, Helsinki 2009–2016, London 2010–2016, and Zurich 2011–2014. The associations between total particle number concentrations (PNC) and UFP sources and daily (natural, cardiovascular [CVD], and respiratory) mortality were investigated using city-specific generalized linear models (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression. Results: We found inconsistent results across cities, sources, and lags for associations with natural, CVD, and respiratory mortality. Increased risk was observed for total PNC and natural mortality in Helsinki (lag 2; 1.3% [0.07%, 2.5%]), CVD mortality in Barcelona (lag 1; 3.7% [0.17%, 7.4%]) and Zurich (lag 0; 3.8% [0.31%, 7.4%]), and respiratory mortality in London (lag 3; 2.6% [0.84%, 4.45%]) and Zurich (lag 1; 9.4% [1.0%, 17.9%]). A similar pattern of associations between health outcomes and total PNC was followed by the fresh traffic source, for which we also found the same associations and lags as for total PNC. The urban source (mostly aged traffic) was associated with respiratory mortality in Zurich (lag 1; 12.5% [1.7%, 24.2%]) and London (lag 3; 2.4% [0.90%, 4.0%]) while the secondary source was associated with respiratory mortality in Zurich (lag 1: 12.0% [0.63%, 24.5%]) and Helsinki (4.7% [0.11%, 9.5%]). Reduced risk for the photonucleation source was observed for respiratory mortality in Barcelona (lag 2, −8.6% [−14.5%, −2.4%]) and for CVD mortality in Helsinki, as this source is present only in clean atmospheres (lag 1, −1.48 [−2.75, −0.21]). Conclusions: We found inconsistent results across cities, sources and lags for associations with natural, CVD, and respiratory mortality.

Objective: We aimed to examine the associations between ambient air pollutants and daily mortality in Northeast China from 2014 to 2018. Methods: A two-stage approach was used to estimate particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO10), and sulfur dioxide (SP10) exposure and daily mortality. Results: An increase of 10 µg/m³ of PM10 exposure and NO2 at lag of 0 to 16 days was associated with the cumulative relative risk of 1.011 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.004, 1.019) and 1.026 (95% CI: 1.004, 1.049), respectively, in non-accident mortality. Meanwhile, significant association was observed in people aged under 60 years between SO2 exposure and respiratory mortality at lag of 0 to 9 days. Conclusions: Our findings strengthen the evidence of PM10 and [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been surging globally. Risk strata in medical attention are of dynamic significance for apposite assessment and supply distribution. Presently, no known cultured contrivance is available to fill this gap of this pandemic. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model based on vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model of various orders for gender based daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. This study also aims to proffer empirical evidence that compares incidence between male and female for COVID-19 risk factors. Methods Wilcoxon signed-rank test is employed to investigate the significance of the difference in the gender distributions of the daily incidence. A VARMA model of various orders is formulated for the gender based daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. The optimal VARMA model is identified using Bayesian information criterion. Also, a predictive model based on univariate autoregressive moving average model is formulated for the daily death cases in Nigeria. Fold change is estimated based on crude case-fatality risk to investigate whether there is massive underreporting and under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. Results Daily incidence is higher in males on most days from 11 April 2020 to 12 September 2020. Result of Wilcoxon signed-rank test shows that incidence among male is significantly higher than female (p-value < 2.22 × 10−16). White neural network test shows that daily female incidence is not linear in mean (p-value = 0.00058746) while daily male incidence is linear in mean (p-value = 0.4257). McLeod-Li test shows that there is autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in the female incidence (Maximum p-value = 1.4277 × 10−5) and male incidence (Maximum p-value = 9.0816 × 10−14) at 5% level of significance. Ljung-Box test (Tsay, 2014) shows that the daily incidence cases are not random (p-value=0.0000). The optimal VARMA model for male and female daily incidence is VARMA (0,1). The optimal model for the Nigeria’s daily COVID-19 death cases is identified to be ARIMA (0,1,1). There is no evidence of massive underreporting and under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. Conclusions Comparison of the observed incidence with fitted data by gender shows that the optimal VARMA and ARIMA models fit the data well. Findings highlight the significant roles of gender on daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria.

Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been surging globally. Risk strata in medical attention are of dynamic significance for apposite assessment and supply distribution. Presently, no known cultured contrivance is available to fill this gap of this pandemic. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model based on vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model of various orders for gender based daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. This study also aims to proffer empirical evidence that compares incidence between male and female for COVID-19 risk factors. Methods: Wilcoxon signed-rank test is employed to investigate the significance of the difference in the gender distributions of the daily incidence. A VARMA model of various orders is formulated for the gender based daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. The optimal VARMA model is identified using Bayesian information criterion. Also, a predictive model based on univariate autoregressive moving average model is formulated for the daily death cases in Nigeria. Fold change is estimated based on crude case-fatality risk to investigate whether there is massive underreporting and under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. Results: Daily incidence is higher in males on most days from 11 April 2020 to 12 September 2020. Result of Wilcoxon signed-rank test shows that incidence among male is significantly higher than female (p-value < 2.22 × 10-16). White neural network test shows that daily female incidence is not linear in mean (p-value = 0.00058746) while daily male incidence is linear in mean (p-value = 0.4257). McLeod-Li test shows that there is autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in the female incidence (Maximum p-value = 1.4277 × 10-5) and male incidence (Maximum p-value = 9.0816 × 10-14) at 5% level of significance. Ljung-Box test (Tsay, 2014) shows that the daily incidence cases are not random (p-value=0.0000). The optimal VARMA model for male and female daily incidence is VARMA (0,1). The optimal model for the Nigeria's daily COVID-19 death cases is identified to be ARIMA (0,1,1). There is no evidence of massive underreporting and under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. Conclusions: Comparison of the observed incidence with fitted data by gender shows that the optimal VARMA and ARIMA models fit the data well. Findings highlight the significant roles of gender on daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is large epidemiological evidence on the short-term health effects of O3 and NO2. These gaseous pollutants induce oxidative stress through their oxidative potential. Therefore, the evaluation of their combined oxidative capacity (Ox) has been proposed rather than studying the effect of either gas individually. To study the short-term effects of daily concentrations of O3, NO2, and Ox on mortality in Rome, in 2002–2015, daily deaths from the city mortality registry were analyzed along with O3 and NO2 levels observed in Rome and with estimated Ox and Owt (Ox, weighted by the redox potential of O3 and NO2). A Poisson regression model was used considering trends, and meteorological and population changes. The effects on mortality were estimated at lag 0–1 and 0–5 for 10 μg/m3. O3 and NO2 were associated with mortality, with the highest effects at lag 0–5, 0.81% (0.45–1.17) and 2.72% (2.07–3.37), respectively. Ox had an intermediate effect between the two gases. After adjusting for PM10, Owt had a stronger effect (1.72%; 1.14–2.30) than either gas, 0.86% (0.50–1.22) for O3 and 1.61% (1.15–2.06) for NO2. Both Ox and Owt were associated with cerebrovascular, respiratory and, to a lesser extent, cardiac mortality more than either gas. These results suggest that the use of Ox (or Owt) can provide a better assessment of the combined role of O3 and NO2 on mortality and can avoid the uncertainty of the threshold level for ozone. The brain and lungs seem to be the main targets of O3 and NO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Climate change scenarios indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of droughts in several regions of the world in the 21st century, especially in Southern Europe, highlighting the threat to global health. For the first time, a time-series diagnostic study has been conducted regarding the impact of droughts in Galicia, a region in north-western Spain, on daily natural-cause mortality, daily circulatory-cause mortality, and daily respiratory-cause mortality, from 1983 to 2013. We analysed the drought periods over the area of interest using the daily Standardized Evapotranspiration-Precipitation Index (SPEI) and the daily Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), obtained at various timescales (1, 3, 6, 9 months), to identify and classify the intensity of drought and non-drought periods. Generalized linear models with the Poisson regression link were used to calculate the Relative Risks (RRs) of different causes of mortality, and the percentage of Attributable Risk Mortality (%AR) was calculated based on RRs data. According to our findings, there were statistically significant (p < 0.05) associations between drought periods, measured by both the daily SPEI and SPI, and daily mortality in all provinces of Galicia (except Pontevedra) for different timescales. Furthermore, drought periods had a greater influence on daily mortality in the interior provinces of Galicia than in the coastal regions, with Lugo being the most affected. In short term, the effect of droughts (along with heatwaves) on daily mortality was observed in interior regions and was mainly explained by atmospheric pollution effect throughout 2000 to 2009 period in Ourense, being respiratory causes of mortality the group most strongly associated. The fact that droughts are likely to become increasingly frequent and intense in the context of climate change and the lack of studies that have considered the impact of droughts on specific causes of mortality make this type of analysis necessary. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Drought periods had a greater influence on mortality in the interior provinces. • Mortality was mainly manifested for longer timescales of SPEI/SPI in the Coastal. • In short-term, the effect of droughts and heatwaves was observed in interior zones. • In short-term, the drought effect on mortality was mainly explained by pollution. • There are hardly differences between SPEI and SPI for the mortality risk estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the PM10 concentrations and influences of atmospheric condition (AC) and land coverage (LC) on a high-pollution megacity (Bogota, Colombia) from a public health viewpoint. Information of monitoring stations equipped with measuring devices for PM10/temperature/solar-radiation/wind-speed were used. The research period lasted eight years (2007–2014). AC and LC were determined after comparing daily PM10 concentrations (DPM10) to reference limits published by the World Health Organization (WHO). ARIMA models for DPM10 were also developed. The results indicated that urban sectors with lower atmospheric instability (AI) had a 2.85% increase in daily mortality (DM) in relation to sectors with greater AI. In these sectors of lower AI, impervious LC predominated, instead of vegetated LC. An ARIMA analysis revealed that a greater extent of impervious LC around a station led to a greater effect on previous days’ DPM10 concentrations. Extreme PM10 episodes persisted for up to two days. Extreme pollution episodes were probably also preceded by low mixing-layer heights (between 722–1085 m). The findings showed a 13.0% increase in WHO standard excesses (PE) for each 10 µg/m3 increase in DPM10, and a 0.313% increase in DM for each 10% increase in PE. The observed average reduction of 14.8% in DPM10 (−0.79% in DM) was probably due to 40% restriction of the traffic at peak hours.

Several studies suggested short-term exposure to air pollution might be associated with suicide mortality, although results have been inconsistent and vary depending upon the type of air contaminants. While seasonal variation associated with suicide was reported to occur and that in the spring and early summer there are peaks in ozone (O3) distribution, the relationship between these two parameters is not known. The aim of this study was to examine the potential association between O3 levels and daily mortality rate related to suicide in Taipei for the period 2004-2008 using a time-stratified case-crossover analysis. In our single pollutant model without adjustment for other pollutants, the risk of suicide increased by 11% on warm days and 15% on cool days for each interquartile range (IQR) rise in O3 concentration, respectively. The relationship was positive but did not reach significance. In our two-pollutant models, O3 remained non-significant on warm days after inclusion of one of any other ambient air contaminants into the model. However, on cool days, a significant association was found between O3 levels and enhanced risk of mortality due to suicide after nitrogen dioxide (NO2) or carbon monoxide (CO) were included. The overall positive but not significant findings of elevated risk of mortality frequently attributed to suicide on days with higher O3 levels suggest that outdoor exposures to this gaseous contaminant may contribute to increases in daily mortality rate related to suicide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Studies that seek to link the impact of ozone with mortality display a number of uncertainties. This study sought to ascertain the functional relationship between ozone and mortality, and analyse its short-term impact on daily natural-, respiratory- and circulatory-cause mortality in Spain. Methods We analysed data on daily natural- (ICD 10: A00-R99), respiratory- (ICD 10: J00-J99) and circulatory-cause mortality (ICD 10: I00-I99) for each of Spain's 52 provinces across the period 2000–2009. We calculated the impact of ozone on mortality by reference to relative risks (RRs) using generalised linear models, and performed an overall meta-analysis. Attributable mortality was calculated on the basis of RRs. Results A quadratic relationship was observed and the existence of a threshold value identified in 33 of the 46 monitoring stations judged to be valid for ozone data, this threshold value was located above the 80 th percentile. The overall RRs for 10 μg/m 3 increases in concentrations of the O 3 threshold value were as follows: 1.033 (95%CI: 1.023–1.044) for natural causes; 1.089 (95%CI: 1.058–1.120) for respiratory causes; and 1.025 (95%CI: 1.018–1.033) for mortality circulatory causes. The annual total of natural-cause ozone-attributable deaths was 499 (95%CI: 277–717), 126 of which (95%CI: 54–194) were due to respiratory causes and 167 (95%CI: 39–293) to circulatory causes. Conclusions High ozone concentrations display a quadratic relationship with daily mortality. While this effect is more pronounced in respiratory causes, there is also a short-term effect on natural- and circulatory-cause mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many of the studies that analyze the future impact of climate change on mortality assume that the temperature that constitutes a heat wave will not change over time. This is unlikely, however, given the process of adapting to heat changes, prevention plans, and improvements in social and health infrastructure. The objective of this study is to analyze whether, during the 1983–2013 period, there has been a temporal change in the maximum daily temperatures that constitute a heat wave (T threshold ) in Spain, and to investigate whether there has been variation in the attributable risk (AR) associated with mortality due to high temperatures in this period. This study uses daily mortality data for natural causes except accidents CIEX: A00-R99 in municipalities of over 10,000 inhabitants in 10 Spanish provinces and maximum temperature data from observatories located in province capitals. The time series is divided into three periods: 1983–1992, 1993–2003 and 2004–2013. For each period and each province, the value of T threshold was calculated using scatter-plot diagram of the daily mortality pre-whitened series. For each period and each province capitals, it has been calculated the number of heat waves and quantifying the impact on mortality through generalized linear model (GLM) methodology with the Poisson regression link. These models permits obtained the relative risks (RR) and attributable risks (AR). Via a meta-analysis, using the Global RR and AR were calculated the heat impact for the total of the 10 provinces. The results show that in the first two periods RR remained constant RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.09 1.19) and RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.10 1.18), while the third period shows a sharp decrease with respect to the prior two periods RR: 1.01 (CI95%: 1.00 1.01); the difference is statistically significant. In Spain there has been a sharp decrease in mortality attributable to heat over the past 10 years. The observed variation in RR puts into question the results of numerous studies that analyze the future impact of heat on mortality in different temporal scenarios and show it to be constant over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies that analyse the impact on mortality of particulate matter (PM) produced by biomass combustion from wildfires mostly focus on a single city or on cities in different countries, with very few concentrating on one country as a whole. Accordingly, the aim of this paper was to analyse the impact that PM has on daily mortality in Spain on days with biomass combustion from wildfires. To analyse natural PM advections the Ministry of Agriculture and Fishing, Food & Environment divides Spain into 9 geographical regions. One province representative of each region for was selected analysis purposes, with provincial daily natural-cause mortality across the period 2004–2009 as the dependent variable, and daily mean PM concentrations in the provincial capital as the independent variable. We controlled for the effect of other chemical pollutants (NO 2 and O 3 ), maximum daily temperature on heat-wave days, day of the week, trends, seasonalities and the autoregressive nature of the series, using generalised linear models with the Poisson regression link to calculate relative risks (RRs) and the increase in RR (IRR) of PM-related mortality. The analysis was performed for days with and without biomass advections (DBA and DNBA respectively), with a breakdown by year, summer, and the remainder of the year (i.e., excluding summer). The results indicated that daily mean PM concentrations were higher on DBA than on DNBA, with statistically significant differences in most provinces. Furthermore, PM 10 was associated with higher daily mortality on DBA in regions where wildfires were most frequent, but not in the remaining provinces. This translated as an IRR per 10 μg/m 3 of PM of 7.93 (2.36–13.81) in the North-west, 3.76 (1.36–6.22) in the Centre and 4.46 (2.99–5.94) in the South-west, values which in all cases were statistically higher than those obtained on DNBA. The increase in PM caused by biomass advections from wildfires is linked to a significant IRR of mortality in Spain. Hence, the fact that wildfires are likely to become increasingly frequent in the context of climate change makes this type of analysis particularly necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the WHO, 3 million deaths are attributable to air pollution due to particulate matter (PM) world-wide. However, there are no specific updated studies which calculate short-term PM-related cause specific mortality in Spain. The objective is to quantify the relative risks (RRs) and attributable risks (ARs) of daily mortality associated with PM10 concentrations, registered in Spanish provinces and to calculate the number of PM-related deaths. We calculated daily mortality due to natural (ICD-10: A00 R99), circulatory (ICD-10: I00 I99) and respiratory causes (ICD-10: J00 J99) for each province across the period 2000-2009. Mean daily concentrations of PM10, NO2 and O3 was used. For the estimate of RRs and ARs, we used generalised linear models with a Poisson link. A meta-analysis was used to estimate RRs and ARs in the provinces with statically significant results. The overall RRs obtained for these provinces, corresponding to increases of 10 μ g/m3 in PM10 concentrations were 1.009 (95% CI: 1.006 1011) for natural, 1.026 (95% CI: 1.019 1033) for respiratory, and 1.009 (95% CI: 1.006 1012) for circulatory-cause mortality. This amounted to an annual overall total of 2683 deaths (95% CI: 852 4354) due to natural, 651 (95% CI: 359 1026) due to respiratory, and 556 (95% CI: 116 1012) due to circulatory causes, with 90% of this mortality lying below the WHO guideline values. This study provides an updated estimate of the effect had by this type of pollutant on causes of mortality, and constitutes an important basis for reinforcing public health measures.Graphical abstractRelative risks (RRs) of natural-cause mortality calculated for increases of 10 μg/m3 in PM10 levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term associations between air pollution and mortality have been well reported in Japan, but the historical changes in mortality risk remain unknown. We examined temporal changes in the mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to four criteria air pollutants in selected Japanese cities. We collected daily mortality data for non-accidental causes (n = 5,748,206), cardiovascular (n = 1,938,743) and respiratory diseases (n = 777,266), and air pollutants (sulfur dioxide [SO 2 ], nitrogen dioxide [NO 2 ], suspended particulate matter [SPM], and oxidants [Ox]) in 10 cities from 1977 to 2015. We performed two-stage analysis with 5-year stratification to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality per 10-unit increase in the 2-day moving average of air pollutant concentrations. In the first stage, city-specific associations were assessed using a quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model. In the second stage, city-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Linear trend and ratio of relative risks (RRR) were computed to examine temporal changes. When stratifying the analysis by every 5 years, average concentrations in each sub-period decreased for SO 2 , NO 2 , and SPM (14.2–2.3 ppb, 29.4–17.5 ppb, 52.1–20.6 μg/m3, respectively) but increased for Ox (29.1–39.1 ppb) over the study period. We found evidence of a negative linear trend in the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with SPM across sub-periods. However, the risks of non-accidental and respiratory mortality per 10-unit increase in SPM concentration were significantly higher in the most recent period than in the earliest period. Other gaseous pollutants did not show such temporal risk change. The risks posed by these pollutants were slightly to moderately heterogeneous in the different cities. The mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to SPM changed, with different trends by cause of death, in 10 cities over 39 years whereas the risks for other gaseous pollutants were relatively stable. [Display omitted] • Daily mortality risk related to air pollution was assessed in 10 Japanese cities. • Concentrations decreased for SO 2 , NO 2 , and SPM, but increased for Ox for 1977–2015. • A downward trend was found for cardiovascular mortality risk associated with SPM. • Non-accidental and respiratory mortality risk with SPM became greater recently. • Other gaseous pollutants indicated either decrease or non-significant risk change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In most regions of the world, levels and constituents of the air pollution mixture have substantially changed over the last decades. Aims To evaluate if the effects of PM10 and NO 2 on daily emergency hospital admissions and mortality have changed during a ~10 year period in Switzerland; to retrospectively estimate prevention potential of different policy choices. Methods Thirteen Poisson-regression models across Switzerland were developed using daily PM10 and NO 2 levels from central monitors and accounting for several temporal and seasonal confounders. Time trends of effects were evaluated with an interaction variable. Distributed lag models with 28 days exposure window were used to retrospectively predict missed prevention potential for each region. Results Overall, emergency hospitalizations and mortality from any medical cause increased by 0.2% (95% Confidence Interval [95% CI]: 0.01, 0.33) and 0.2% (95% CI: −0.1, 0.6) for a 10 µg/m 3 increment of PM10, and 0.7% (95% CI: 0.1, 1.3) for NO 2 and mortality. Over the study period, the association between respiratory emergencies and PM10 changed by a factor of 1.017 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.034) and by a factor of 0.977 [95% CI: 0.956, 0.998]) for respiratory mortality among the elderly for NO 2. During the study period, abatement strategies targeting a 20% lower overall mean would have prevented four times more cases than abating days exceeding daily standards. Conclusion During the last decade, the short term effects of PM10 and NO 2 on hospitalizations and mortality in Switzerland have almost not changed. More ambitious strategies of air pollutant reduction in Switzerland would have had non negligible public health benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether is Belgrade (Serbia) suitable candidate for introduction of Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). Belgrade has high population density, considerable share of built up area and lot of multi floor buildings that are factors of heat-health vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach -- The authors analyzed the impact of weather conditions on human health in Belgrade during the summer 2007 that was extremely warm in Southeastern Europe and Serbia. Daily cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality counts were used in Poisson regression model with air temperature as predictor variable. Also, three different heat wave indices (Warm Spell Duration Index, apparent temperature and index based on daily minimum temperature) were tested in order to estimate their ability to capture episodes with mortality higher than expected. Findings -- The temperature has the highest influence on cerebrovascular and cardiovascular mortality, while slightly modifies respiratory mortality. According to regression equation, a 1°C increase in mean daily temperature is associated with a 4.6 percent (p < 0.0001), 2.2 percent (p < 0.0001) and 1.6 percent (insignificant for p <0.10) increase in cerebrovascular, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. Originality/value -- Even thought the Law recognizes the heat wave as natural hazard, there is no concrete measures and action for prevention of excess mortality. It is shown that extreme temperature had numerous social consequences on city's residents in the summer 2007. Given the results the authors got, it is recommended that the HHWS should be implemented in health protection plans in Belgrade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the association between concentration of ambient air pollutants and daily mortality number in an urban area of Beijing. Different age and gender groups were taken into consideration. The results showed that, for all the groups, the average daily mortality number showed an increasing trend from June to January of next year, and a decreasing trend from February to June. When the concentration of air pollutants increased, the health risk also increased. In multi-pollutants models, the pollutants had a decreasing order NO2, PM10, SO2 for the different gender groups when the concentration of pollutants increased, and had a decreasing order NO2, PM10, SO2 for different age groups when the levels of pollutants increased. Lag effects of air pollutants and seasonal differences also were found. The results of our study could serve to strengthen the local evidence base for air pollution-related health effects that is imminently needed for better air quality management, and also adds valuable information from Beijing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent investigations on PM2.5 constituents' effects in community residents have substantially enhanced our knowledge on the impacts of specific components, especially the HEI-sponsored National Particle Toxicity Component (NPACT) studies at NYU and UW-LRRI that addressed the impact of long-term PM2.5 exposure on cardiovascular disease (CVD) effects. NYU's mouse inhalation studies at five sites showed substantial variations in aortic plaque progression by geographic region that was coherent with the regional variation in annual IHD mortality in the ACS-II cohort, with both the human and mouse responses being primarily attributable to the coal combustion source category. The UW regressions of associations of CVD events and mortality in the WHI cohort, and of CIMT and CAC progression in the MESA cohort, indicated that had stronger associations with CVD-related human responses than OC, EC, or Si. The LRRI's mice had CVD-related biomarker responses to . NYU also identified components most closely associated with daily hospital admissions (OC, EC, Cu from traffic and Ni and V from residual oil). For daily mortality, they were from coal combustion (, Se, and As). While the recent NPACT research on PM2.5 components that affect CVD has clearly filled some major knowledge gaps, and helped to define remaining uncertainties, much more knowledge is needed on the effects in other organ systems if we are to identify and characterize the most effective and efficient means for reducing the still considerable adverse health impacts of ambient air PM. More comprehensive speciation data are needed for better definition of human responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parasites may be an important component of early life mortality in fishes, but assigning part of total mortality to parasites is difficult. The Chapman-Robson mortality estimator is a robust and potentially valuable way to quantify the added mortality of parasites when age data are available. We used daily age data and the Chapman-Robson catch-curve procedure to estimate daily mortality for 15 years in juvenile age-0 shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris), and for 6 years, the daily mortality of fish with and without black spot infection, a trematode whose final host is a piscivorous bird. Infected fish always had higher mortality rates than uninfected fish, and for 3 years when those differences were significant, the added daily mortality for infected fish was 3.6-3.7 %. Based on the proportion infected each year, and for durations of 15-50 d, juvenile populations were 18.3-38.6 % lower than they would have been without black spot infections. There were no significant differences in growth between infected and uninfected fish in most years and little indication of a direct metabolic impact of infections. Thus, this added mortality, primarily in July and August, seemed unlikely to be an indirect result of infection and was most likely due to predation. The source of that predation is unknown but the parasite's final hosts, piscivorous birds, seemed the most obvious candidate for this added mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Laboratory-validated data on the survival, development and hatching responses of fertilized Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus eggs from the northern Japan stock were determined through an incubation experiment. The optimum temperature for survival until hatching ranged from 4 to 8° C. No significant difference in development rates was found between the populations from Mutsu Bay, Japan, and western Canadian coastal waters even though the samples may belong to different G. macrocephalus stocks. Gadus macrocephalus larvae hatched asynchronously from egg batches despite incubation under the same environment during their development. Both incubation temperature and temperature-mediated hatch rank affect size and yolk reserve. These data suggest that variations in water temperatures within an ecological range markedly influence the development rates, survival and hatching of the eggs, as well as the stage at hatch larvae of G. macrocephalus. Asynchronous hatching and the production of offspring with variable sizes and yolk reserves are considered evolutionary bet-hedging strategies that enable the species to maximize their likelihood of survival in an environment with variable temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]