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Sustainable intensification schemes such as integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) are a proposed strategy to close yield gaps, increase soil fertility, and achieve food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Biogeochemical models such as DayCent can assess their potential at larger scales, but these models need to be calibrated to new environments and rigorously tested for accuracy. Here, we present a Bayesian calibration of DayCent, using data from four long-term field experiments in Kenya in a leave-one-site-out cross-validation approach. The experimental treatments consisted of the addition of low- to high-quality organic resources, with and without mineral nitrogen fertilizer. We assessed the potential of DayCent to accurately simulate the key elements of sustainable intensification, including (1) yield, (2) the changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), and (3) the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of CO2 and N2O combined. Compared to the initial parameters, the cross-validation showed improved DayCent simulations of maize grain yield (with the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (EF) increasing from 0.36 to 0.50) and of SOC stock changes (with EF increasing from 0.36 to 0.55). The simulations of maize yield and those of SOC stock changes also improved by site (with site-specific EF ranging between 0.15 and 0.38 for maize yield and between −0.9 and 0.58 for SOC stock changes). The four cross-validation-derived posterior parameter distributions (leaving out one site each) were similar in all but one parameter. Together with the model performance for the different sites in cross-validation, this indicated the robustness of the DayCent model parameterization and its reliability for the conditions in Kenya. While DayCent poorly reproduced daily N2O emissions (with EF ranging between −0.44 and −0.03 by site), cumulative seasonal N2O emissions were simulated more accurately (EF ranging between 0.06 and 0.69 by site). The simulated yield-scaled GHG balance was highest in control treatments without N addition (between 0.8 and 1.8 kg CO2 equivalent per kg grain yield across sites) and was about 30 % to 40 % lower in the treatment that combined the application of mineral N and of manure at a rate of 1.2 t C ha−1 yr−1. In conclusion, our results indicate that DayCent is well suited for estimating the impact of ISFM on maize yield and SOC changes. They also indicate that the trade-off between maize yield and GHG balance is stronger in low-fertility sites and that preventing SOC losses, while difficult to achieve through the addition of external organic resources, is a priority for the sustainable intensification of maize production in Kenya.

In sub-Saharan Africa, maize is one of the most important staple crops, but long-term maize cropping with low external inputs has been associated with the loss of soil fertility. While adding high-quality organic resources combined with mineral fertilizer has been proposed to counteract this fertility loss, the long-term effectiveness and interactions with site properties still require more understanding. This study used repeated measurements over time to assess the effect of different quantities and qualities of organic resource addition combined with mineral nitrogen (N) on the change of soil organic carbon (SOC) contents over time (and SOC stocks in the year 2021) in four ongoing long-term experiments in Kenya. These experiments were established with identical treatments in moist to dry climates, on coarse to clayey soil textures, and have been conducted for at least 16 years. They received organic resources in quantities equivalent to 1.2 and 4 t C ha−1 yr−1 in the form of Tithonia diversifolia (high quality, fast turnover), Calliandra calothyrsus (high quality, intermediate turnover), Zea mays stover (low quality, fast turnover), sawdust (low quality, slow turnover) and local farmyard manure (variable quality, intermediate turnover). Furthermore, the addition of 240 kg N ha−1 yr−1 as mineral N fertilizer or no fertilizer was the split-plot treatment. At all four sites, a loss of SOC was predominantly observed, likely because the sites had been converted to cropland only a few decades before the start of the experiments. Across sites, the average decline of SOC content over 19 years in the 0 to 15 cm topsoil layer ranged from 42 % to 13 % of the initial SOC content for the control and the farmyard manure treatments at 4 t C ha−1 yr−1, respectively. Adding Calliandra or Tithonia at 4 t C ha−1 yr−1 limited the loss of SOC contents to about 24 % of initial SOC, while the addition of sawdust, maize stover (in three of the four sites) and sole mineral N addition showed no significant reduction of SOC loss over the control. Site-specific analyses, however, did show that at the site with the lowest initial SOC content (about 6 g kg−1), the addition of 4 t C ha−1 yr−1 farmyard manure or Calliandra with mineral N led to a gain in SOC contents. The other sites lost SOC in all treatments, albeit at site-specific rates. While subsoil SOC stocks in 2021 were little affected by organic resource additions (no difference in three of the four sites), the topsoil SOC stocks corroborated the results obtained from the SOC content measurements (0–15 cm) over time. The relative annual change of SOC contents showed a higher site specificity in farmyard manure, Calliandra and Tithonia treatments than in the control treatment, suggesting that the drivers of site specificity in SOC buildup (soil mineralogy, soil texture, climate) need to be better understood for effective targeting management of organic resources. Farmyard manure showed the highest potential for reducing SOC losses, but the necessary quantities to build SOC are often not realistic for smallholder farmers in Africa. Therefore, additional agronomic interventions such as intercropping, crop rotations or the cultivation of crops with extended root systems are necessary to maintain or increase SOC.

This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm) exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59) and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53) in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76) with high probabilities (0.67) of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60%) in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

Integrated soil fertility and soil water conservation technologies are possible solutions to the low per capita food production in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Nonetheless, the rate of adoption of these technologies by smallholder farmers has stagnated over the years despite being recommended. This has been attributed to the existence of wide communication gaps among researchers, extension agents, and farmers. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the influence of communication factors on the adoption of the selected technologies among smallholder farmers in the drylands of Tharaka-Nithi County. We used a cross-sectional survey design and collected data using an interview schedule from 400 randomly selected farming households. Binary logistic regression was employed for data analysis. Results showed that accessibility of extension agents after introducing the technology significantly influenced the adoption of combined organic and inorganic fertilizers (p = 0.056), mulch (p = 0.051), and Zai pit (p = 0.058). Similarly, practical orientation significantly influenced the adoption of combined organic and inorganic fertilizers (p = 0.001), mulch (p = 0.010), and Zai pit (p = 0.003). Information repetition significantly influenced the adoption of combined organic and inorganic fertilizers, mulch, and Zai pit at p-value 0.003, 0.001, and 0.001, respectively. Training was essential for mulch and Zai pit technologies at (p = 0.030) and (p = 0.001) respectively, while farmer group membership significantly influenced adoption for combined organic and inorganic fertilizers (p = 0.045) and Zai pit (p = 0.057) technologies. Extension agents should increase their interactions with farmers after the introduction of technologies. Equally use of demonstrations should be encouraged during the dissemination of these technologies among the farmers as they enhance the chances of adoption of the technologies., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2021 The Author(s).)

Degraded landscapes and soil water stress are long-standing problems to smallholder agriculture in the drylands. Despite the important roles of zai technology in restoring degraded landscapes and improving agricultural productivity, the technology is yet to be adopted to its fullest extent. This can be attributed to gender-linked disparities in agricultural technology utilization. The study, therefore, sought to determine gender-specific determinants of zai technology choice and use-intensity. A multistage sampling technique was employed in randomly selecting 133 female-headed households and 267 male-headed households in Tharaka South sub-county. Quantitative data were collected in a cross-sectional survey using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Using sex-disaggregated data, Chi-square and t-test statistic were employed to test the statistical significance of dummy and mean value of continuous variables, respectively. Gender specific determinants of zai technology choice and use-intensity were determined using the Heckman-two-step econometric model. The results revealed that, more women farmers (44%) were using zai technology as compared to men (38%). Among women farmers, total cultivated land, access to animal-drawn farm implements, and group membership had an influence on zai technology choice. For men, total cultivated land, group membership and access to extension services positively influenced choice of zai technology. With regard to zai technology use-intensity, total land cultivated, livestock densities, group membership and frequency of trainings on soil and water management were important determinants among women farmers. For men, zai technology use-intensity was determined by total cultivated land and farmers' perceptions on soil erosion. We recommend that, gender-sensitive farm-level policies oriented towards farmer socioeconomic profiles are important deliberations towards choice and intense application of soil and water conservation strategies such as the zai technology., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2021 The Author(s).)