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During the months of February–March (FM) of the 2020–2022 period, several intense dust intrusions from northern Africa affected Europe. The frequency of dust events was exceptional, considering that wintertime is the season with minimum dust activity in the Mediterranean, and some episodes displayed a duration and/or intensity never recorded before, affecting large areas of the western Euro-Mediterranean (WEM) region. The main objective of this work is to construct a catalogue of FM dust events over the WEM for the 2003–2022 period based on satellite aerosol retrievals and to analyse their atmospheric drivers at the synoptic and large scales, paying special attention to the recent 2020–2022 period of high dust activity. Overall, our results indicate large intraseasonal and interannual variability in the occurrence of wintertime dust events over the WEM. Dust events of FM 2020–2022 were characterized by enhanced dust concentration and high maximum altitudes in comparison with those of previous years (2003–2019). WEM dust events are associated with enhanced activity of high-pressure systems over the Euro-Atlantic sector, which favour the obstruction of the westerlies and the occurrence of cut-off lows at subtropical latitudes. However, these high-pressure systems can exhibit a large variety of configurations, including meridional dipole blocking patterns with poleward shifted jets or Mediterranean subtropical ridges with an intensified mid-latitude jet. The former is the dominant favourable pattern for WEM dust occurrence, but the latter was relatively common during the 2020–2022 period.

The stratosphere can be a source of predictability for surface weather on timescales of several weeks to months. However, the potential predictive skill gained from stratospheric variability can be limited by biases in the representation of stratospheric processes and the coupling of the stratosphere with surface climate in forecast systems. This study provides a first systematic identification of model biases in the stratosphere across a wide range of subseasonal forecast systems. It is found that many of the forecast systems considered exhibit warm global-mean temperature biases from the lower to middle stratosphere, too strong/cold wintertime polar vortices, and too cold extratropical upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere regions. Furthermore, tropical stratospheric anomalies associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation tend to decay toward each system's climatology with lead time. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), most systems do not capture the seasonal cycle of extreme-vortex-event probabilities, with an underestimation of sudden stratospheric warming events and an overestimation of strong vortex events in January. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), springtime interannual variability in the polar vortex is generally underestimated, but the timing of the final breakdown of the polar vortex often happens too early in many of the prediction systems. These stratospheric biases tend to be considerably worse in systems with lower model lid heights. In both hemispheres, most systems with low-top atmospheric models also consistently underestimate the upward wave driving that affects the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. We expect that the biases identified here will help guide model development for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast systems and further our understanding of the role of the stratosphere in predictive skill in the troposphere.

Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid-19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the magnitude of 1-in-100-year water height values at the northern Adriatic coast is projected to increase by 26–35 cm by 2050 and by 53–171 cm by 2100 with respect to the present value and is subject to continued increase thereafter. For a moderate-emission scenario (RCP4.5), these values are 12–17 cm by 2050 and 24–56 cm by 2100. Local subsidence (which is not included in these estimates) will further contribute to the future increase in extreme water heights. This analysis shows the need for adaptive long-term planning of coastal defences using flexible solutions that are appropriate across the large range of plausible future water height extremes.

The build-up of pollutants to harmful levels can occur when meteorological conditions favour their production or accumulation near the surface. Such conditions can arise when a region experiences air stagnation. The link between European air stagnation, air pollution and the synoptic- to large-scale circulation is investigated in this article across all seasons and the 1979–2018 period. Dynamical indices identifying atmospheric blocking, Rossby wave breaking, subtropical ridges, and the North Atlantic eddy-driven and subtropical jets are used to describe the synoptic- to large-scale circulation as predictors in statistical models of air stagnation and pollutant variability. It is found that the large-scale circulation can explain approximately 60 % of the variance in monthly air stagnation, ozone and wintertime particulate matter (PM) in five distinct regions within Europe. The variance explained by the model does not vary strongly across regions and seasons, apart from for PM when the skill is highest in winter. However, the dynamical indices most related to air stagnation do depend on region and season. The blocking and Rossby wave breaking predictors tend to be the most important for describing air stagnation and pollutant variability in northern regions, whereas ridges and the subtropical jet are more important to the south. The demonstrated correspondence between air stagnation, pollution and the large-scale circulation can be used to assess the representation of stagnation in climate models, which is key for understanding how air stagnation and its associated climatic impacts may change in the future.

Global climate models (GCMs) are known to suffer from biases in the simulation of atmospheric blocking, and this study provides an assessment of how blocking is represented by the latest generation of GCMs. It is evaluated (i) how historical CMIP6 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations perform compared to CMIP5 simulations and (ii) how horizontal model resolution affects the simulation of blocking in the CMIP6-HighResMIP (PRIMAVERA – PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high-resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment) model ensemble, which is designed to address this type of question. Two blocking indices are used to evaluate the simulated mean blocking frequency and blocking persistence for the Euro-Atlantic and Pacific regions in winter and summer against the corresponding estimates from atmospheric reanalysis data. There is robust evidence that CMIP6 models simulate blocking frequency and persistence better than CMIP5 models in the Atlantic and Pacific and during winter and summer. This improvement is sizeable so that, for example, winter blocking frequency in the median CMIP5 model in a large Euro-Atlantic domain is underestimated by 33 % using the absolute geopotential height (AGP) blocking index, whereas the same number is 18 % for the median CMIP6 model. As for the sensitivity of simulated blocking to resolution, it is found that the resolution increase, from typically 100 to 20 km grid spacing, in most of the PRIMAVERA models, which are not re-tuned at the higher resolutions, benefits the mean blocking frequency in the Atlantic in winter and summer and in the Pacific in summer. Simulated blocking persistence, however, is not seen to improve with resolution. Our results are consistent with previous studies suggesting that resolution is one of a number of interacting factors necessary for an adequate simulation of blocking in GCMs. The improvements reported in this study hold promise for further reductions in blocking biases as model development continues.

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) represent one of the most abrupt phenomena of the boreal wintertime stratospheric variability, and constitute the clearest example of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere. A good representation of SSWs in climate models is required to reduce their biases and uncertainties in future projections of stratospheric variability. The ability of models to reproduce these phenomena is usually assessed with just one reanalysis. However, the number of reanalyses has increased in the last decade and their own biases may affect the model evaluation. Here we compare the representation of the main aspects of SSWs across reanalyses. The examination of their main characteristics in the pre- and post-satellite periods reveals that reanalyses behave very similarly in both periods. However, discrepancies are larger in the pre-satellite period compared to afterwards, particularly for the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. All datasets reproduce similarly the specific features of wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 SSWs. A good agreement among reanalyses is also found for triggering mechanisms, tropospheric precursors, and surface response. In particular, differences in blocking precursor activity of SSWs across reanalyses are much smaller than between blocking definitions.

This paper analyses for the first time the impact of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges on near-surface ozone (O3) in Europe during a 15-year period. For this purpose, a catalogue of blocks and ridges over the Euro–Atlantic region is used together with a gridded dataset of maximum daily 8 h running average ozone (MDA8 O3) covering the period 1998–2012. The response of ozone to the location of blocks and ridges with centres in three longitudinal sectors (Atlantic, ATL, 30–0° W; European, EUR, 0–30° E; Russian, RUS, 30–60° E) is examined. The impact of blocks on ozone is regionally and seasonally dependent. In particular, blocks within the EUR sector yield positive ozone anomalies of ∼ 5–10 ppb over large parts of central Europe in spring and northern Europe in summer. Over 20 and 30 % of the days with blocks in that sector register exceedances of the 90th percentile of the seasonal ozone distribution at many European locations during spring and summer, respectively. The impacts of ridges during those seasons are subtle and more sensitive to their specific location, although they can trigger ozone anomalies above 10 ppb in northern Italy and the surrounding countries in summer, eventually exceeding European air quality (AQ) targets. During winter, surface ozone in the north-west of Europe presents completely opposite responses to blocks and ridges. The anticyclonic circulation associated with winter EUR blocking, and to a lesser extent with ATL blocking, yields negative ozone anomalies between −5 and −10 ppb over the UK, northern France and the Benelux. Conversely, the enhanced zonal flow around 50–60° N during the occurrence of ATL ridges favours the arrival of background air masses from the Atlantic and the ventilation of the boundary layer, producing positive ozone anomalies of ∼ 5 ppb in an area spanning from the British Isles to the northern half of Germany. We also show that multiple linear models on the seasonal frequency of occurrence of these synoptic patterns can explain a considerable fraction of the interannual variability in some winter and summer ozone statistics (mean levels and number of exceedances of the 90th percentile) over some regions of western Europe. Thus, this work provides the first quantitative assessments of the remarkable but distinct impacts that the anticyclonic circulation and the diversion of the zonal flow associated with blocks and ridges exert on surface ozone in Europe. The findings reported here can be exploited in the future to evaluate the modelled responses of ozone to circulation changes within chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry–climate models (CCMs).

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

Air stagnation refers to an extended period of clear, stable conditions which can favour the accumulation of pollutants in the lower atmosphere. In Europe, weather conditions are strongly mediated by the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. Descriptions of the jet stream typically focus on its latitudinal position or the strength of its wind speed, and its impacts are often studied under different latitudinal regimes of the jet. Herein, we evaluate the influence of the jet stream on European air stagnation using a new multiparametric jet diagnostic that provides a more complete description of jet stream characteristics. We report large influences of the jet stream on regional stagnation and uncover links with jet structure that go beyond knowledge of its latitude. Accordingly, air stagnation anomalies show different, and often opposite, responses to jets in a given latitudinal position but with different additional characteristics. Statistical modelling reveals that the monthly variability in air stagnation explained by the new jet diagnostic is substantially higher compared to one that only considers the jet’s latitude and intensity. Knowledge of the average location of the jet in a given month, as described by a latitude or longitude parameter, together with the variability in the jet’s shape, appear key for the statistical models of air stagnation. The relationship between air stagnation and the jet stream is often nonlinear, particularly for regions in southern Europe. For northern regions it is generally more linear, but the additional jet parameters are essential for describing stagnation variability. These results have implications for studying air stagnation and its pollution impacts in seasonal forecasts and climate change projections.

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950-2020 and 1850-2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970-2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies., (© 2024 The Author(s). Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The New York Academy of Sciences.)

This paper assesses whether moving summer holidays to the warmest period of the year in Spain could be a useful climate change adaptation strategy. While the most popular period for Spanish summer holidays has traditionally been August, we illustrate that the second half of July is the hottest period of the year and when the negative effects of high temperatures are most pronounced. If the holiday period in the second fortnight of August was moved to the second fortnight of July, some of the associated impacts would be mitigated due to the reduced anthropogenic activity during non-working days. In particular, we find a significant reduction in the annual peak of labour productivity loss (~25 %) and, to a lesser extent, of electricity demand and near-surface ozone concentrations (~3-4 %). Finally, we also show that global warming could lead to enhanced differences between both fortnights (even with no change in the seasonal cycle of temperature) because of the non-linear relationships between temperature and its impacts. Therefore, the positive effect of shifting holidays would be even larger in the coming future., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Documentary climate data describe evidence of past climate arising from predominantly written historical documents such as diaries, chronicles, newspapers, or logbooks. Over the past decades, historians and climatologists have generated numerous document-based time series of local and regional climates. However, a global dataset of documentary climate time series has never been compiled, and documentary data are rarely used in large-scale climate reconstructions. Here, we present the first global multi-variable collection of documentary climate records. The dataset DOCU-CLIM comprises 621 time series (both published and hitherto unpublished) providing information on historical variations in temperature, precipitation, and wind regime. The series are evaluated by formulating proxy forward models (i.e., predicting the documentary observations from climate fields) in an overlapping period. Results show strong correlations, particularly for the temperature-sensitive series. Correlations are somewhat lower for precipitation-sensitive series. Overall, we ascribe considerable potential to documentary records as climate data, especially in regions and seasons not well represented by early instrumental data and palaeoclimate proxies., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

In the Era of exponential data generation, increasing the number of paleoclimate records to improve climate field reconstructions might not always be the best strategy. By using pseudo-proxies from different model ensembles, we show how biologically-inspired artificial intelligence can be coupled with different reconstruction methods to minimize the spatial bias induced by the non-homogeneous distribution of available proxies. The results indicate that small subsets of records situated over representative locations can outperform the reconstruction skill of the full proxy network, even in more realistic pseudo-proxy experiments and observational datasets. These locations highlight the importance of high-latitude regions and major teleconnection areas to reconstruct annual global temperature fields and their responses to external forcings and internal variability. However, low frequency temperature variations such as the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age are better resolved by records situated at lower latitudes. According to our idealized experiments a careful selection of proxy locations should be performed depending on the targeted time scale of the reconstructed field.

While Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been shown to yield improved simulations compared to General Circulation Model (GCM), their representation of large-scale phenomena like atmospheric blocking has been hardly addressed. Here, we evaluate the ability of RCMs to simulate blocking situations present in their reanalysis driving data and analyse the associated impacts on anomalies and biases of European 2-m air temperature (TAS) and precipitation rate (PR). Five RCM runs stem from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble while three RCMs are WRF models with different nudging realizations, all of them driven by ERA-Interim for the period 1981-2010. The detected blocking systems are allocated to three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, allowing for a characterization of distinctive blocking-related TAS and PR anomalies. Our results indicate some misrepresentation of atmospheric blocking over the EURO-CORDEX domain, as compared to the driving reanalysis. Most of the RCMs showed fewer blocks than the driving data, while the blocking misdetection was negligible for RCMs strongly conditioned to the driving data. A higher resolution of the RCMs did not improve the representation of atmospheric blocking. However, all RCMs are able to reproduce the basic anomaly structure of TAS and PR connected to blocking. Moreover, the associated anomalies do not change substantially after correcting for the misrepresentation of blocking in RCMs. The overall model bias is mainly determined by pattern biases in the representations of surface parameters during non-blocking situations. Biases in blocking detections tend to have a secondary influence in the overall bias due to compensatory effects of missed blockings and non-blockings. However, they can lead to measurable effects in the presence of a strong blocking underestimation.

In this study, we analyze the linkage between atmosphere and ocean modes and winter flood variability over the 20th century based on long-term flow-discharge series, historical archives, and tree-ring records of past floods in the North Atlantic Basin (NAB). The most extreme winter floods occurred in 1936 and had strong impacts on either side of the Atlantic. We hypothesize that the joint effects of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which is closely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, play a significant role when describing flood variability in North America and Europe since 1900. Statistical modeling supports the assumption that the response of flood anomalies over the NAB to AO phases is subsidiary of SST phases. Besides, we shed light on the extraordinarily winter flood of 1936 that was characterized by very high SSTs over both the Atlantic and Pacific (>98th percentile) and very low, negative values of AO (<1st percentile). This outstanding winter flood episode was most likely characterized by stratospheric polar vortex anomalies, which can usually be linked to an increased probability of storms in western and southwestern Europe and increased snowfall events in eastern North America. By assessing the flood anomalies over the NAB as a coupled AO and SST function, one could further the understanding of such large-scale events and presumably improve anticipation of future extreme flood occurrences., (© 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.)

This paper characterizes the spatiotemporal variability of air stagnation over the Euro-Mediterranean area for the 1979-2016 period by using a simplified air stagnation index (ASI) based on daily precipitation as well as near-surface and upper wind speed data. We have also undertaken the first comparison of stagnation as derived from meteorological reanalysis and observations, finding a reasonably good agreement between both datasets. The main differences arise from the surface wind speed, as this field depends on the local setting of the observational sites and imperfect parameterizations within the reanalysis model. Since air stagnation has considerable spatial heterogeneity over the region, we have regionalized the monthly frequency of stagnant days, resulting five regions with consistent temporal patterns: Scandinavia (SCAN), Northern-Europe (NEU), Central-Europe (CEU), South-West (SW) and South-East (SE). The northern regions (SCAN and NEU), which are affected by moderately strong near-surface winds and ample precipitation, present low frequency and temporal variability in stagnation compared to the southern regions (SW and SE). The winters and summers with the highest stagnation frequency often concur with positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the regions, with the exception of negative anomalies and a displacement of the extratropical jet to the south in the case of SCAN and NEU during winter. Air stagnation exerts a clear influence on air quality (AQ), with anomalies above 10% for summer ozone (O 3 ) and 30% for winter PM 10 (particulate matter ≤10 μm in diameter) on stagnant vs. non-stagnant days over most of the regions. These values exceed 20% and 50%, respectively, in the case of CEU, where air stagnation also drives significant changes in the frequency distributions of these pollutants and increases the likelihood of AQ exceedances. Moreover, persistent and widespread stagnation events favour the build-up of both O 3 and PM 10 over most of the continent., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Purpose of Review: Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields., Recent Findings: Several avenues have been identified by which blocking can be improved in numerical models, though a fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond a few days lead time). Models are therefore starting to provide some useful information on how blocking and its impacts may change in the future, although deeper understanding of the processes at play will be needed to increase confidence in model projections. There are still major uncertainties regarding the processes most important to the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking and advances in our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, for example in the role of diabatic processes, continue to inform the modelling and prediction efforts., Summary: The term 'blocking' covers a diverse array of synoptic patterns, and hence a bewildering range of indices has been developed to identify events. Results are hence not considered fully trustworthy until they have been found using several different methods. Examples of such robust results are the underestimation of blocking by models, and an overall decline in future occurrence, albeit with a complex regional and seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends in blocking over the recent historical period are not supported by different methods, and natural variability will likely dominate regional variations over the next few decades., Competing Interests: Compliance with Ethical StandardsOn behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

The summer of 2010 was exceptionally warm in eastern Europe and large parts of Russia. We provide evidence that the anomalous 2010 warmth that caused adverse impacts exceeded the amplitude and spatial extent of the previous hottest summer of 2003. "Mega-heatwaves" such as the 2003 and 2010 events likely broke the 500-year-long seasonal temperature records over approximately 50% of Europe. According to regional multi-model experiments, the probability of a summer experiencing mega-heatwaves will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 years. However, the magnitude of the 2010 event was so extreme that despite this increase, the likelihood of an analog over the same region remains fairly low until the second half of the 21st century.