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Background: Validation of protective associations of the lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS) against flare, irreversible damage, health-related quality of life, and mortality has enabled the adoption of treat-to-target strategies in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Previous validation studies were of short duration, limiting the ability to detect longer term signals in flare rate and irreversible damage. In addition, previous studies have focused on percent time at target, rather than actual periods of time that are more useful in clinical practice and trials. We assessed long-term protective associations of LLDAS and remission, and specifically examined protective thresholds of sustained LLDAS and remission., Methods: Patients aged 18 years or older with SLE were followed up from May 1, 2013, to Dec 31, 2020 in a prospective, multinational, longitudinal cohort study. Patients were recruited from 25 centres in 12 countries. Multi-failure time-to-event analyses were used to assess the effect of sustained LLDAS on irreversible damage accrual (primary outcome; measured with the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index) and flare (key secondary outcome; measured with the SELENA Flare Index), with dose exposure and threshold effects studied. Sustained LLDAS or remission were defined as two or more consecutive visits over at least 3 months in the respective state. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03138941., Findings: 3449 patients were followed up for a median of 2·8 years (IQR 1·1-5·6), totalling 37 662 visits. 3180 (92·2%) patients were women, and 3031 (87·9%) were of Asian ethnicity. 2506 (72·7%) patients had sustained LLDAS at least once. Any duration of sustained LLDAS or remission longer than 3 months was associated with reduced damage accrual (LLDAS: hazard ratio 0·60 [95% CI 0·51-0·71], p<0·0001; remission: 0·66 [0·57-0·76], p<0·0001) and flare (LLDAS: 0·56 [0·51-0·63], p<0·0001; remission: 0·66 [0·60-0·73], p<0·0001), and increasing durations of sustained LLDAS corresponded to increased protective associations. Sustained DORIS remission or steroid-free remission were less attainable than LLDAS., Interpretation: We observed significant protective associations of LLDAS and remission against damage accrual and flare, establish a threshold of 3 months sustained LLDAS or remission as protective, and demonstrate deepening protection with longer durations of sustained LLDAS or remission., Funding: The Asia Pacific Lupus Collaboration receives project support grants from AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, EMD Sereno, GSK, Janssen, Eli Lilly, and UCB., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests RK-R received grants from GSK and Novartis. SVN received consulting fees from Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Astra Zeneca, Idorsia; payment for lectures from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, GSK, and Roche; participation in advisory board for Biogen; and leadership of societies, unpaid (CEO of Rheumatology Educational Trust Foundation, and Head of the SLE Special Interest Group at the Philippine Rheumatology Association). ZL received consulting fees from Pfizer, Roche, Janssen, Abbott, AbbVie, Bristol Myers Squibb, MSD, Celgene, Eli Lilly, GSK, Novartis, and UCB, and has royalties with Pfizer, Roche, Janssen, Abbott, AbbVie, Bristol Myers Squibb, MSD, Celgene, Eli Lilly, GSK, Novartis, and UCB. SS received consulting fees from Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and ZP Therapeutics. YK received payment or honoraria from GlaxoSmithKline, AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Pfizer Japan, Janssen Pharmaceutical, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Asahi Kasei Pharma, Astellas Pharma, and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation. MH received institutional research grants from GSK and Novartis; and honoraria for lectures from AstraZeneca and Astellas Pharma. ZZ received payment or honoraria from AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, GSK, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sanofi, Janssen, and UCB; and participation in advisory board for Beigene. JK received speaker fees from GSK and Asahi Kasei. TT received grants from Astellas, Asahi Kasei, Chugai, and Mitsubishi Tanabe, and consulting fees from Astellas and Chugai. FG is Director of the Board of the Australian Rheumatology Association. KN received Advisory Board participation fees from AbbVie. YT received research grants from Boehringer Ingelheim, Taisho, and Chugai; and speaker fees or honoraria from AbbVie, Eisai, Chugai, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, GSK, Taisho, AstraZeneca, Daiichi-Sankyo, Gilead, Pfizer, UCB, Asahi-kasei, and Astellas. AH received a research grant from AstraZeneca; consulting fees from EUSA Pharma (UK); and speaker fees or honoraria from Limbic, Novartis, Moose Republic, AbbVie, and Eli Lilly. MN received an Investigator Grant from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC GNT1176538); research grants from Janssen and Boehringer Ingelheim; consulting fees from AstraZeneca and GSK; honoraria for presentations from AstraZeneca, GSK, and Boehringer Ingelheim; and support for conference attendance from Boehringer Ingelheim. EFM received consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Genetech, Janssen, Novartis, Servier, and EMD Serono. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.)

Background: Targets of treatment for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) include the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), remission, and complete remission. Whether treatment can be tapered after attaining these targets and whether tapering is safer in patients in complete remission compared with LLDAS are unknown. We aimed to assess the odds of disease flares after treatment tapering in stable disease, versus continuing the same therapy. We also aimed to examine whether tapering in complete remission resulted in fewer flares or longer time to flare compared with tapering in LLDAS or remission., Methods: This multinational cohort study was conducted at 25 sites across 13 Asia-Pacific countries. We included adult patients aged 18 years or older with stable SLE who were receiving routine clinical care, had two or more visits and had attained stable disease at one or more visits. We categorised stable disease into: LLDAS (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K] score ≤4, Physician Global Assessment [PGA] ≤1, and prednisolone ≤7·5 mg/day); Definitions of Remission in SLE (DORIS) remission (clinical SLEDAI-2K score 0, PGA <0·5, and prednisolone ≤5 mg/day); or complete remission on therapy (SLEDAI-2K score 0, PGA <0·5, and prednisolone ≤5 mg/day). Stable disease categories were mutually exclusive. Tapering was defined as any decrease in dose of corticosteroids or immunosuppressive therapy (mycophenolate mofetil, calcineurin inhibitors, azathioprine, leflunomide, or methotrexate). Using multivariable generalised estimating equations, we compared flares (SELENA-SLEDAI Flare Index) at the subsequent visit after drug tapering. We used generalised estimating equations and Cox proportional hazard models to compare tapering attempts that had begun in LLDAS, remission, and complete remission., Findings: Between May 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2020, 4106 patients were recruited to the cohort, 3002 (73·1%) of whom were included in our analysis. 2769 (92·2%) participants were female, 233 (7·8%) were male, and 2636 (88·1%) of 2993 with ethnicity data available were Asian. The median age was 39·5 years (IQR 29·0-50·0). There were 14 808 patient visits for patients in LLDAS, or remission or complete remission, of which 13 140 (88·7%) entered the final multivariable model after excluding missing data. Among the 9863 visits at which patients continued the same therapy, 1121 (11·4%) flared at the next visit, of which 221 (19·7%) were severe flares. Of the 3277 visits at which a patient received a tapering of therapy, 557 (17·0%) flared at the next visit, of which 120 (21·5%) were severe flares. Tapering was associated with higher odds of flare compared with continuing the same therapy (odds ratio [OR] 1·24 [95% CI 1·10-1·39]; p=0·0005). Of 2095 continuous tapering attempts, 860 (41·1%) were initiated in LLDAS, 596 (28·4%) in remission, and 639 (30·5%) in complete remission. Tapering initiated in LLDAS (OR 1·37 [95% CI 1·03-1·81]; p=0·029) or remission (1·45 [1·08-1·94]; p=0·013) had higher odds of flare in 1 year compared with complete remission. Tapering in LLDAS (hazard ratio 1·24 [95% CI 1·04-1·48]; p=0·016) or remission (1·30 [1·08-1·56]; p=0·0054) had a significantly shorter time to first flare than tapering initiated in complete remission. Attaining sustained LLDAS, remission, or complete remission for at least 6 months just before the time of taper was associated with lower odds of flare at next visit, flares in 1 year, and longer time to flare., Interpretation: Tapering of corticosteroids or immunosuppressive therapy in patients with stable SLE was associated with excess flares. Our findings suggest that drug tapering should be carefully considered, weighing the risks and benefits, and is best exercised in complete (clinical and serological) remission and after maintaining stable disease for at least 6 months., Funding: AstraZeneca, BMS, Eli Lily, Janssen, Merck Serono, GSK, and UCB., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests YK received honoraria from GSK, AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Pfizer Japan, Janssen Pharmaceutical, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Asahi Kasei Pharma, Astellas Pharma, and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation. MHa received payment for post-marketing surveillance from GSK; research grants from Novartis; and honoraria from GSK, AstraZeneca, and Astella Pharma. TT received research grants from Astellas Pharma, Asahi Kasei, Chugai, and Mitsubishi Tanabe, as well as consulting fees from Astellas Pharma and Chugai. KPKN is on the advisory board for AbbVie. SVN received consulting fees from Biogen and Boehringer Ingelheim; honoraria from Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, and GSK; support for attending meetings from Pfizer; and is on the advisory board for Biogen. EFM received consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Genentech, Janssen, Novartis, Servier, EMD, Serono, and Eli Lily. MN received research grants from Janssen; consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, GSK, and Janssen; and honoraria from Janssen, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Pfizer. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)