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3. New perspectives on ice forcing in continental arc magma plumbing systems

Author

Singer, Brad S., Moreno-Yaeger, Pablo, Townsend, Meredith, Huber, Christian, Cuzzone, Joshua, Edwards, Benjamin R., Romero, Matias, Orellana-Salazar, Yasmeen, Marcott, Shaun A., Breunig, Rachel E., Ferrier, Ken L., Scholz, Kathryn, Coonin, Allie N., Alloway, Brent V., Tremblay, Marissa M., Stevens, Sally, Fustos-Toribio, Ivo, Moreno, Patricio I., Vera, Franco, and Amigo, Álvaro

Published
2024
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4. Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Author

Edwards, Tamsin L, Nowicki, Sophie, Marzeion, Ben, Hock, Regine, Goelzer, Heiko, Seroussi, Hélène, Jourdain, Nicolas C, Slater, Donald A, Turner, Fiona E, Smith, Christopher J, McKenna, Christine M, Simon, Erika, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Gregory, Jonathan M, Larour, Eric, Lipscomb, William H, Payne, Antony J, Shepherd, Andrew, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Anderson, Brian, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bliss, Andrew, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Champollion, Nicolas, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Fujita, Koji, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R, Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Huss, Matthias, Huybrechts, Philippe, Immerzeel, Walter, Kleiner, Thomas, Kraaijenbrink, Philip, Le clec’h, Sébastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter R, Little, Christopher M, Lowry, Daniel P, Malles, Jan-Hendrik, Martin, Daniel F, Maussion, Fabien, Morlighem, Mathieu, O’Neill, James F, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F, Quiquet, Aurélien, Radić, Valentina, Reese, Ronja, Rounce, David R, Rückamp, Martin, Sakai, Akiko, Shafer, Courtney, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shannon, Sarah, Smith, Robin S, Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D, Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zekollari, Harry, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Climate Action, General Science & Technology
Abstract

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Published
2021

8. Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century

Author

Briner, Jason P., Cuzzone, Joshua K., Badgeley, Jessica A., Young, Nicolás E., Steig, Eric J., Morlighem, Mathieu, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Hakim, Gregory J., Schaefer, Joerg M., Johnson, Jesse V., Lesnek, Alia J., Thomas, Elizabeth K., Allan, Estelle, Bennike, Ole, Cluett, Allison A., Csatho, Beata, de Vernal, Anne, Downs, Jacob, Larour, Eric, and Nowicki, Sophie

Published
2020
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13. Modeling the timing of Patagonian Ice Sheet retreat in the Chilean Lake District from 23-10 ka.

Author

Cuzzone, Joshua, Romero, Matias, and Marcott, Shaun A.

Abstract

Studying the retreat of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) during the last deglaciation represents an important opportunity to understand how ice sheets outside the polar regions have responded to deglacial changes in temperature and large-scale atmospheric circulation. At the northernmost extension of the PIS during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the Chilean Lake District (CLD) was influenced by the southern westerly winds (SWW), which strongly modulated the hydrologic and heat budget of the region. Despite progress in constraining the nature and timing of deglacial ice retreat across this area, considerable uncertainty in the glacial history still exists due to a lack of geologic constraints on past ice margin change. Where the glacial chronology is lacking, ice sheet models can provide important insight into our understanding of the characteristics and drivers of deglacial ice retreat. Here we apply the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) to simulate the LGM and last deglacial ice history of the PIS across the CLD at high spatial resolution (450 meters). We present an ensemble of LGM ice sheet model experiments using climate inputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) and a transient simulation of ice margin change across the last deglaciation using climate inputs from the CCSM3 Trace-21ka experiment. We find that although the simulated LGM temperature is primarily responsible for differences in simulated ice geometries, wintertime precipitation also plays an important role in modulating LGM ice sheet volume and extent. The simulated deglaciation is found to match existing geologic constraints that indicate widespread ice margin retreat between 18 to 16.5 ka. Following this interval our simulations suggest that the ice sheet retreated rapidly, and by 15 ka onward, only mountain glaciers remained across the CLD in contrast with sparse geologic data that indicate a local ice cap remaining until 10ka. Additionally, our results suggest that modest variations in winter precipitation (~10%) can modulate the pacing of ice retreat by 1-2 ka, which has implications when comparing simulated outputs of ice margin change to geologic reconstructions. Therefore, these LGM and deglacial experiments signify the importance in constraining the deglacial strength, latitudinal position, and extent of the SWW and its influence on the hydrologic and heat budget and also highlight the importance in constraining paleoclimate parameters critical to modelling and understanding the drivers of deglacial PIS behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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16. Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Author

Payne, Antony J., primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Alexander, Patrick, additional, Albrecht, Torsten, additional, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, additional, Aschwanden, Andy, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Chambers, Christopher, additional, Choi, Youngmin, additional, Cullather, Richard, additional, Cuzzone, Joshua, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Edwards, Tamsin L., additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Gladstone, Rupert, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Hattermann, Tore, additional, Hoffman, Matthew J., additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C., additional, Kleiner, Thomas, additional, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Le clec'h, Sebastien, additional, Lee, Victoria, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Little, Christopher M., additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Pelle, Tyler, additional, Price, Stephen F., additional, Quiquet, Aurélien, additional, Reese, Ronja, additional, Rückamp, Martin, additional, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, additional, Seroussi, Hélène, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Slater, Donald, additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Sun, Sainan, additional, Tarasov, Lev, additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Van Breedam, Jonas, additional, van de Wal, Roderik, additional, van den Broeke, Michiel, additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Zhao, Chen, additional, Zhang, Tong, additional, and Zwinger, Thomas, additional

Published
2021
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17. Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Author

Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, Zwinger, Thomas, Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas

Abstract

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Published
2021

18. Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Author

Edwards, Tamsin L., Nowicki, Sophie, Marzeion, Ben, Hock, Regine, Goelzer, Heiko, Seroussi, Hélène, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Slater, Donald A., Turner, Fiona E., Smith, Christopher J., McKenna, Christine M., Simon, Erika, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Gregory, Jonathan M., Larour, Eric, Lipscomb, William H., Payne, Antony J., Shepherd, Andrew, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Anderson, Brian, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bliss, Andrew, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Champollion, Nicolas, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Fujita, Koji, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huss, Matthias, Huybrechts, Philippe, Immerzeel, Walter, Kleiner, Thomas, Kraaijenbrink, Philip, Le clec’h, Sébastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter R., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Malles, Jan-Hendrik, Martin, Daniel F., Maussion, Fabien, Morlighem, Mathieu, O’Neill, James F., Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Radić, Valentina, Reese, Ronja, Rounce, David R., Rückamp, Martin, Sakai, Akiko, Shafer, Courtney, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shannon, Sarah, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zekollari, Harry, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, Zwinger, Thomas, Edwards, Tamsin L., Nowicki, Sophie, Marzeion, Ben, Hock, Regine, Goelzer, Heiko, Seroussi, Hélène, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Slater, Donald A., Turner, Fiona E., Smith, Christopher J., McKenna, Christine M., Simon, Erika, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Gregory, Jonathan M., Larour, Eric, Lipscomb, William H., Payne, Antony J., Shepherd, Andrew, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Anderson, Brian, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bliss, Andrew, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Champollion, Nicolas, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Fujita, Koji, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huss, Matthias, Huybrechts, Philippe, Immerzeel, Walter, Kleiner, Thomas, Kraaijenbrink, Philip, Le clec’h, Sébastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter R., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Malles, Jan-Hendrik, Martin, Daniel F., Maussion, Fabien, Morlighem, Mathieu, O’Neill, James F., Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Radić, Valentina, Reese, Ronja, Rounce, David R., Rückamp, Martin, Sakai, Akiko, Shafer, Courtney, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shannon, Sarah, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zekollari, Harry, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas

Abstract

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Published
2021
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19. Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Author

Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, Zwinger, Thomas, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas

Published
2021

20. Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Author

Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Hydrologie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Edwards, Tamsin L, Nowicki, Sophie, Marzeion, Ben, Hock, Regine, Goelzer, Heiko, Seroussi, Hélène, Jourdain, Nicolas C, Slater, Donald A, Turner, Fiona E, Smith, Christopher J, McKenna, Christine M, Simon, Erika, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Gregory, Jonathan M, Larour, Eric, Lipscomb, William H, Payne, Antony J, Shepherd, Andrew, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Anderson, Brian, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bliss, Andrew, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Champollion, Nicolas, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Fujita, Koji, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R, Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Huss, Matthias, Huybrechts, Philippe, Immerzeel, Walter, Kleiner, Thomas, Kraaijenbrink, Philip, Le Clec'h, Sébastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter R, Little, Christopher M, Lowry, Daniel P, Malles, Jan-Hendrik, Martin, Daniel F, Maussion, Fabien, Morlighem, Mathieu, O'Neill, James F, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F, Quiquet, Aurélien, Radić, Valentina, Reese, Ronja, Rounce, David R, Rückamp, Martin, Sakai, Akiko, Shafer, Courtney, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shannon, Sarah, Smith, Robin S, Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D, Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zekollari, Harry, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, Zwinger, Thomas, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Hydrologie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Edwards, Tamsin L, Nowicki, Sophie, Marzeion, Ben, Hock, Regine, Goelzer, Heiko, Seroussi, Hélène, Jourdain, Nicolas C, Slater, Donald A, Turner, Fiona E, Smith, Christopher J, McKenna, Christine M, Simon, Erika, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Gregory, Jonathan M, Larour, Eric, Lipscomb, William H, Payne, Antony J, Shepherd, Andrew, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Anderson, Brian, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bliss, Andrew, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Champollion, Nicolas, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Fujita, Koji, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R, Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Huss, Matthias, Huybrechts, Philippe, Immerzeel, Walter, Kleiner, Thomas, Kraaijenbrink, Philip, Le Clec'h, Sébastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter R, Little, Christopher M, Lowry, Daniel P, Malles, Jan-Hendrik, Martin, Daniel F, Maussion, Fabien, Morlighem, Mathieu, O'Neill, James F, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F, Quiquet, Aurélien, Radić, Valentina, Reese, Ronja, Rounce, David R, Rückamp, Martin, Sakai, Akiko, Shafer, Courtney, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shannon, Sarah, Smith, Robin S, Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D, Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zekollari, Harry, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas

Published
2021

21. Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Author

Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, Zwinger, Thomas, Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas

Abstract

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Published
2021

22. Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Author

Payne, Antony J, Nowicki, Sophie, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K, Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R, Gregory, Jonathan M, Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C, Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H, Little, Christopher M, Lowry, Daniel P, Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F, Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S, Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D, Van Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik, Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, Zwinger, Thomas, Payne, Antony J, Nowicki, Sophie, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K, Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R, Gregory, Jonathan M, Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C, Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H, Little, Christopher M, Lowry, Daniel P, Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F, Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S, Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D, Van Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik, Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas

Abstract

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Published
2021

23. Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Author

Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cecile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert R.M., Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurelien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Seroussi, Helene, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin R.S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik S W, Van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Cheng, Zhang, Tong, Zwinger, Thomas, Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cecile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert R.M., Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurelien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Seroussi, Helene, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin R.S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik S W, Van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Cheng, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas

Abstract

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Published
2021

25. The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

Author

Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Anthony, Larour, Eric, Seroussi, Helene, Lipscomb, William H., Gregory, Jonathan, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Little, Chris, Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Quiquet, Aurelien, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Slater, Donald A., Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiamma, Tarasov, Lev, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Anthony, Larour, Eric, Seroussi, Helene, Lipscomb, William H., Gregory, Jonathan, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Little, Chris, Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Quiquet, Aurelien, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Slater, Donald A., Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiamma, Tarasov, Lev, van de Wal, Roderik, and van den Broeke, Michiel

Abstract

The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean.

Published
2020

26. The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

Author

Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Goelzer, Heiko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412549123, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Anthony, Larour, Eric, Seroussi, Helene, Lipscomb, William H., Gregory, Jonathan, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412014882, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Little, Chris, Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Quiquet, Aurelien, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Slater, Donald A., Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiamma, Tarasov, Lev, van de Wal, Roderik|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/101899556, van den Broeke, Michiel|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Goelzer, Heiko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412549123, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Anthony, Larour, Eric, Seroussi, Helene, Lipscomb, William H., Gregory, Jonathan, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412014882, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Little, Chris, Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Quiquet, Aurelien, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Slater, Donald A., Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiamma, Tarasov, Lev, van de Wal, Roderik|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/101899556, and van den Broeke, Michiel|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643

Published
2020

27. Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Author

Payne, Antony J, primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Alexander, Patrick M., additional, Albrecht, Torsten, additional, Asay-Davis, Xylar S, additional, Aschwanden, Andy, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Chambers, Christopher, additional, Choi, Youngmin, additional, Cullather, Richard I., additional, Cuzzone, Joshua K, additional, dumas, Christophe, additional, Edwards, Tamsin, additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin Keith, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Gladstone, Rupert, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Hattermann, Tore, additional, Hoffman, Matthew J., additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C, additional, Kleiner, Thomas, additional, Kuipers Munneke, Peter, additional, Larour, Eric Yves, additional, Le clec'h, Sebastien, additional, Lee, Victoria, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Little, Christopher M, additional, Lowry, Daniel P, additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Pelle, Tyler, additional, Price, Stephen, additional, Quiquet, Aurelien, additional, Reese, Ronja, additional, Rückamp, Martin, additional, Schlegel, Nicole -J., additional, Seroussi, Helene, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Slater, Donald A, additional, Smith, Robin, additional, Straneo, Fiamma, additional, Sun, Sainan, additional, Tarasov, Lev, additional, Trusel, Luke, additional, Van Breedam, Jonas, additional, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., additional, van den Broeke, Michiel R., additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Zhao, Chen, additional, Zhang, Tong, additional, and Zwinger, Thomas, additional

Published
2020
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28. The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

Author

Goelzer, Heiko, primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Payne, Anthony, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Seroussi, Helene, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Gregory, Jonathan, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Alexander, Patrick, additional, Aschwanden, Andy, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Chambers, Christopher, additional, Choi, Youngmin, additional, Cuzzone, Joshua, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Edwards, Tamsin, additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Le clec'h, Sebastien, additional, Lee, Victoria, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Little, Chris, additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Quiquet, Aurelien, additional, Rückamp, Martin, additional, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, additional, Slater, Donald A., additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Straneo, Fiamma, additional, Tarasov, Lev, additional, van de Wal, Roderik, additional, and van den Broeke, Michiel, additional

Published
2020
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29. Deglaciation of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets interrupted by glacier advance during abrupt coolings

Author

Young, Nicolas, primary, Briner, Jason, additional, Miller, Gifford, additional, Lesnek, Alia, additional, Crump, Sarah, additional, Thomas, Elizabeth, additional, Pendleton, Simon, additional, Cuzzone, Joshua, additional, Lamp, Jennifer, additional, Zimmerman, Susan, additional, Caffee, Marc, additional, and Schaefer, Joerg, additional

Published
2020
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30. Supplementary material to "The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6"

Author

Goelzer, Heiko, primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Payne, Anthony, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Seroussi, Helene, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Gregory, Jonathan, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Shepherd, Andy, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Agosta, Cecile, additional, Alexander, Patrick, additional, Aschwanden, Andy, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Chambers, Christopher, additional, Choi, Youngmin, additional, Cuzzone, Joshua, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Edwards, Tamsin, additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Le clec'h, Sebastien, additional, Lee, Victoria, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Little, Chris, additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Quiquet, Aurelien, additional, Rückamp, Martin, additional, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, additional, Slater, Donald, additional, Smith, Robin, additional, Straneo, Fiamma, additional, Tarasov, Lev, additional, van de Wal, Roderik, additional, and van den Broeke, Michiel, additional

Published
2020
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44. Persistent millennial-scale glacier fluctuations in Ireland between 24 ka and 10 ka.

Author

Barth, Aaron M., Clark, Peter U., Clark, Jorie, Roe, Gerard H., Marcott, Shaun A., McCabe, A. Marshall, Caffee, Marc W., Feng He, Cuzzone, Joshua K., and Dunlop, Paul

Subjects
*GLACIERS, *FLUCTUATIONS (Physics), *ATMOSPHERIC temperature, *EARTH sciences
Abstract

We report 80 10Be ages on 14 moraines from Irish cirques that show a previously unrecognized signal of at least eight millennial-scale fluctuations between 24.5 ± 0.7 ka and 11.0 ± 0.3 ka. Several moraine ages may be correlative with abrupt warming at the onset of the Bølling-Allerød interval (14.7 ka) and the end of the Younger Dryas interval (11.7 ka), suggesting a forced response. Our ages also identify glacier fluctuations that occurred when regional temperatures were relatively stable. This finding is consistent with modeling results showing several hundred-meter-scale glacier fluctuations in response to interannual variability. At the same time, our composite record of cirque-glacier average equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) shows a response to warming due to increasing greenhouse gases and summer insolation modulated by abrupt climate changes. Our new 10Be chronology thus records both forced and unforced millennial- scale glacier fluctuations superimposed on a lower-frequency ELA signal of forced response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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