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In order to efficiently assign recruiters, equitably allocate recruiting goals, and effectively use limited advertising resources, the U.S. Marine Corps requires detailed knowledge of geographic location and size of the current and future market for young men qualified for military service. This report describes the development of a methodology to estimate and project the number of male, high school graduates, 17 to 21 years old, that can be expected to qualify for military service. Estimates by year, racial/ethnic group, and U. S. Marine Corps recruiting district are given as examples. Use of the estimates by the Personnel Procurement Division of Headquarters, USMC is described.

This study investigated the effect of the Navy's Human Resource Management Cycle on retention of personnel in operational Navy units. The first- term reenlistment rates of units that had participated in HRM Cycle organizational development activities were compared with those of matched control units. Results showed substantial positive changes in reenlistment rates for HRM Cycle units during the 6-month period in which they participated in HRM activities. Significant improvements were not sustained over longer periods of time, however. It was recommended that future evaluation studies attempt to isolate those variables that may be critical to the effectiveness of the HRM cycle., See also Rept. nos. NPRDC-TR-76-5, AD-A013 226, NPRDC-TR-76-32, ADA022372, NPRDC-TR-76TQ-43, ADA029756 and NPRDC-TR-77-38, ADA042486.

Three enlisted ratings (boiler technician, hull maintenance technician, and operations specialist) were analyzed using a little used multivariate technique (THAID). Recommendation for reenlistment of each member and the actual reenlistment /discharge outcome were studied in relationship to a wide range of assignment factors (e.g., durations of assignments, sea vs. shore designations, and ship characteristics). It was found that duration of the first duty assignment was highly correlated with reenlistment. Unauthorized absences and ship type at the first duty station interacted to predict maximally recommendation for reenlistment. Sea duty for the last assignment prior to reenlistment/discharge presaged reenlistment, as did being married. Greatly differing probabilities of reenlistment can be obtained by subgrouping potential reenlistees on the basis of the duration of the first duty assignment, sea vs. shore designation of the last assignment, and marital status. (Author)

The large number of concepts and terms used in retention research leads to apparent contradictions among findings and an inability to corroborate findings. Thus, to aid future researchers in personnel retention, a set of terms has been identified. For these terms, the following were provided: Definition, reference material, mathematical formula (if applicable), and historical values (if available). (Author)

The optimum weighting of variables to predict a dependent/criterion variable is an important problem in nearly all of the social and natural sciences. Although the predominant method, multiple regression analysis (MR), yields optimum weights for the sample at hand, these weights are not generally optimum in the population from which the sample was drawn. A method was developed that sacrifices some 'prediction' in the sample at hand in order to achieve a more reliable and stable predictor composite. The method developed, Factor Regression Analysis (FRA), is based on the first principle component of the predictor intercorrelation matrix with validities in the diagonal cells. FRA yielded very stable predictor composites and weights--the weights themselves varied less from sample to sample than did MR weights from the same samples. These differences were marked for low sample sizes (e.g., N = 25), regardless of the number of variables in regression. With regard to prediction, FRA composites were substantially more valid in the population than the MR composites based on the same samples. The number of predictors in the subset did not turn out to be very important. FRA weights based on samples of 25 were about as valid as MR weights based on samples of 100. With samples of 200 the two methods yielded roughly equivalent prediction. (Author)

An intercultural relations (ICR) - Vietnam (VN) program was designed to provide pre-deployment training to Navy personnel for duty in Vietnam. The interim report examines the degree to which the program was having desired effects. A series of objective instruments was selected for measuring relevant attitudinal change. Baseline data were collected from trainees regarding skills in interpersonal relations, flexibility, leadership style, and level of self- actualization. This information was used as a reference in assessing skills after training. Tests were also administered to a control group and to a group tested only after training. Pretest and posttest difference scores were tested for statistical significance. It was hypothesized that training would have a greater impact upon attitude change than that in a comparable control group.

The report presents a rationale and associated tables for use by researchers and others concerned with evaluating the practical effectiveness of personnel tests. (Author)

The concepts of necessity and sufficiency are presented as the basis for understanding various predictor-criterion relationships. Three types of strong relationships are introduced as models for the discovery, utilization, and evaluation of predictors: (1) 'necessary-and-sufficient,' the conventional symmetrical relationship where the frequencies in two cells of the four-fold table approach zero as the association increases, (2) 'necessary-but-not-sufficient,' the asymmetrical relationship where the frequency in only the false-positive cell approaches zero, and (3) 'sufficient-but-not-necessary,' the asymmetrical relationship where the frequency in only the false-negative cell approaches zero. It is shown that the necessary-and-sufficient model is a poor basis for the discovery, utilization, and validation of necessary-but-not-sufficient and sufficient-but-not-necessary predictors. Due to over-emphasis of the necessary-and-sufficient model, it is likely that many potentially useful predictors have been discarded as useless. An improved methodology is suggested. (Author)

The correlational approach to selection test evaluation was examined and found to have serious limitations. An approach based on statistical decision theory was developed. Two new methods were presented, one called the utility function method and the other the decision-theoretic method. The former involves the comparison of criterion groups in terms of their utility to the institution using the selection test. The decision-theoretic method is based on statistical decision theory and involves the construction of a payoff matrix corresponding to the contingency table relating the test to the criterion. The cell frequencies are weighted in a utility equation by the payoff values in the corresponding cells of the payoff matrix. This utility equation represents a new test evaluation index which directly expresses the utility of the test to the institution using it. Both of these new methods require the measurement of values peculiar to the institution using the test. The utility function method requires that the performance criterion be translated to a utility function; while the decision-theoretic method requires that a payoff matrix be developed which reflects the gains and losses each cell observation represents to the institution. The three methods (correlational, utility function, and decision- theoretic) were compared with tests used to select students for A-Schools in the U.S. Navy. The three methods led to quite different indications regarding the utility of the selection tests evaluated. The two new methods agreed in terms of the proportion improvement over chance prediction provided by the tests while the correlational method tended to underestimate this proportion.

An investigation of the content, format, and validity of the United States Navy Clerical Aptitude Test, Form 6 was undertaken. The data of a previous investigation were analyzed in order to see if the statistical assumptions underlying the data analyses were satisfied, to determine the effect of waivers (selectees whose selection test scores were below th operational cutoff) upon the validity coefficients, and to determine how well CLER would predict broad categories of final grade. It was concluded that previous analyses gave a true indication that CLER aids significantly, but only slightly, in selecting recruits for these schools. Various ways of improving CLER and its utilization were considered. Several aspects of the format of CLER were criticized. The investigation was extended to the search for a clerical aptitude test that would be more valuable to the Navy than CLER. Eleven short clerical aptitude tests were administered to successive classes in seven A-Schools. Scores on several of these tests were more highly correlated with final grade than was CLER. These tests also augmented the correlations of GCT and ARI with final grade more than did CLER. The principle recommendations were: (1) Replacement of CLER by its short form (United States Navy Clerical Aptitude Test, Form SB-1) until a better test can be put into operation. (2) Construction of a test similar to the Coding Test of the U. S. Army Clerical Speed Test, followed by research to determine the advisability of replacing CLER with a Navy version of that test. (Author)