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Background Little research has been done to examine whether smokers switch to illegal or roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes in response to a change in their relative price. Objective This paper explores how relative prices between three cigarette forms (manufactured legal, manufactured illegal and RYO cigarettes) are associated with the choice of one form over another after controlling for covariates, including sociodemographic characteristics, smokers' exposure to antismoking messaging, health warning labels and tobacco marketing. Methods Generalised estimating equations were employed to analyse the association between the price ratio of two different cigarette forms and the usage of one form over the other. Findings A 10% increase in the relative price ratio of legal to RYO cigarettes is associated with a 4.6% increase in the probability of consuming RYO cigarettes over manufactured legal cigarettes (p≤0.05). In addition, more exposure to antismoking messaging is associated with a lower odds of choosing RYO cigarettes over manufactured legal cigarettes (p≤0.05). Non-significant associations exist between the manufactured illegal to legal cigarette price ratios and choosing manufactured illegal cigarettes, suggesting that smokers do not switch to manufactured illegal cigarettes as prices of legal ones increase. However, these non-significant findings may be due to lack of variation in the price ratio measures. To improve the effectiveness of increased taxes and prices in reducing smoking, policymakers need to narrow price variability in the tobacco market. Moreover, increasing antismoking messaging reduces tax avoidance in the form of switching to cheaper RYO cigarettes in Uruguay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Little research has been done to examine whether smokers switch to illegal or roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes in response to a change in their relative price. Objective This paper explores how relative prices between three cigarette forms (manufactured legal, manufactured illegal and RYO cigarettes) are associated with the choice of one form over another after controlling for covariates, including sociodemographic characteristics, smokers' exposure to antismoking messaging, health warning labels and tobacco marketing. Methods Generalised estimating equations were employed to analyse the association between the price ratio of two different cigarette forms and the usage of one form over the other. Findings A 10% increase in the relative price ratio of legal to RYO cigarettes is associated with a 4.6% increase in the probability of consuming RYO cigarettes over manufactured legal cigarettes (p≤0.05). In addition, more exposure to antismoking messaging is associated with a lower odds of choosing RYO cigarettes over manufactured legal cigarettes (p≤0.05). Non-significant associations exist between the manufactured illegal to legal cigarette price ratios and choosing manufactured illegal cigarettes, suggesting that smokers do not switch to manufactured illegal cigarettes as prices of legal ones increase. However, these non-significant findings may be due to lack of variation in the price ratio measures. To improve the effectiveness of increased taxes and prices in reducing smoking, policymakers need to narrow price variability in the tobacco market. Moreover, increasing antismoking messaging reduces tax avoidance in the form of switching to cheaper RYO cigarettes in Uruguay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uruguay, a country with a solid tobacco control policy since 2005 shows, contrary to expectations, an insignificant decrease in total tobacco products' sales in the last five years. The hypothesis is that on one side, changes in household income and the income elasticity of the demand for cigarettes were important countervailing factors in the demand of both products. The period 2005-2009 shows a large increase of 36% in household real income in Uruguay due to fast economic recovery after the 2002 crisis. The second factor is the interchangeability of roll your own and cigarettes and the impact on the demand of each product as a reaction to tax and price changes. The tax and price of roll your own tobacco remains substantially lower than that of cigarettes. This fact, and the increased substitution of roll your own for cigarettes seems to be the main reasons for the low impact of the policy of tobacco tax and price increases. This paper then consists of a revision of a 2004 study to estimate separate demands for both main tobacco products and obtain estimates for own price, cross price and income elasticities. Then, a simulation study was performed using the elasticities found and two scenarios of increases in household income: moderate (2.5% per year) and high (5% per year) confirming that countries where income is growing fast and with a potential for substitution towards cheaper products require substantial cigarette tax and price increases for a fiscal tobacco control policy to become effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]