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The U.S. Census Bureau's 2020 Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS) bases its output on noisy measurements, which are population tabulations added to realizations of mean-zero random variables. These noisy measurements are observed in a set of hierarchical geographic units, e.g., the U.S. as a whole, states, counties, census tracts, and census blocks. The noisy measurements from the 2020 Redistricting Data File and Demographic and Housing Characteristics File statistical data products are now public. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method to leverage the hierarchical structure within these noisy measurements to compute confidence intervals for arbitrary tabulations and in arbitrary geographic entities composed of census blocks. This method is based on computing a weighted least squares estimator (WLS) and its variance matrix. Due to the high dimension of this estimator, this operation is not feasible using the standard approach, since this would require evaluating products with the inverse of a dense matrix with several billion (or even several trillion) rows and columns. In contrast, the approach we describe in this paper computes the required estimate and its variance with a time complexity and memory requirement that scales linearly in the number of census blocks.

In "The 2020 Census Disclosure Avoidance System TopDown Algorithm," Abowd et al. (2022) describe the concepts and methods used by the Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS) to produce formally private output in support of the 2020 Census data product releases, with a particular focus on the DAS implementation that was used to create the 2020 Census Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File. In this paper we describe the updates to the DAS that were required to release the Demographic and Housing Characteristics (DHC) File, which provides more granular tables than other data products, such as the Redistricting Data Summary File. We also describe the final configuration parameters used for the production DHC DAS implementation, as well as subsequent experimental data products to facilitate development of tools that provide confidence intervals for confidential 2020 Census tabulations.

The use of formal privacy to protect the confidentiality of responses in the 2020 Decennial Census of Population and Housing has triggered renewed interest and debate over how to measure the disclosure risks and societal benefits of the published data products. Following long-established precedent in economics and statistics, we argue that any proposal for quantifying disclosure risk should be based on pre-specified, objective criteria. Such criteria should be used to compare methodologies to identify those with the most desirable properties. We illustrate this approach, using simple desiderata, to evaluate the absolute disclosure risk framework, the counterfactual framework underlying differential privacy, and prior-to-posterior comparisons. We conclude that satisfying all the desiderata is impossible, but counterfactual comparisons satisfy the most while absolute disclosure risk satisfies the fewest. Furthermore, we explain that many of the criticisms levied against differential privacy would be levied against any technology that is not equivalent to direct, unrestricted access to confidential data. Thus, more research is needed, but in the near-term, the counterfactual approach appears best-suited for privacy-utility analysis., Comment: 47 pages, 1 table

The purpose of this paper is to guide interpretation of the semantic privacy guarantees for some of the major variations of differential privacy, which include pure, approximate, R\'enyi, zero-concentrated, and $f$ differential privacy. We interpret privacy-loss accounting parameters, frequentist semantics, and Bayesian semantics (including new results). The driving application is the interpretation of the confidentiality protections for the 2020 Census Public Law 94-171 Redistricting Data Summary File released August 12, 2021, which, for the first time, were produced with formal privacy guarantees.

Constructing a differentially private (DP) estimator requires deriving the maximum influence of an observation, which can be difficult in the absence of exogenous bounds on the input data or the estimator, especially in high dimensional settings. This paper shows that standard notions of statistical depth, i.e., halfspace depth and regression depth, are particularly advantageous in this regard, both in the sense that the maximum influence of a single observation is easy to analyze and that this value is typically low. This is used to motivate new approximate DP location and regression estimators using the maximizers of these two notions of statistical depth. A more computationally efficient variant of the approximate DP regression estimator is also provided. Also, to avoid requiring that users specify a priori bounds on the estimates and/or the observations, variants of these DP mechanisms are described that satisfy random differential privacy (RDP), which is a relaxation of differential privacy provided by Hall, Wasserman, and Rinaldo (2013). We also provide simulations of the two DP regression methods proposed here. The proposed estimators appear to perform favorably relative to the existing DP regression methods we consider in these simulations when either the sample size is at least 100-200 or the privacy-loss budget is sufficiently high.

The Census TopDown Algorithm (TDA) is a disclosure avoidance system using differential privacy for privacy-loss accounting. The algorithm ingests the final, edited version of the 2020 Census data and the final tabulation geographic definitions. The algorithm then creates noisy versions of key queries on the data, referred to as measurements, using zero-Concentrated Differential Privacy. Another key aspect of the TDA are invariants, statistics that the Census Bureau has determined, as matter of policy, to exclude from the privacy-loss accounting. The TDA post-processes the measurements together with the invariants to produce a Microdata Detail File (MDF) that contains one record for each person and one record for each housing unit enumerated in the 2020 Census. The MDF is passed to the 2020 Census tabulation system to produce the 2020 Census Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File. This paper describes the mathematics and testing of the TDA for this purpose.

The 2020 Census Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS) is a formally private mechanism that first adds independent noise to cross tabulations for a set of pre-specified hierarchical geographic units, which is known as the geographic spine. After post-processing these noisy measurements, DAS outputs a formally private database with fields indicating location in the standard census geographic spine, which is defined by the United States as a whole, states, counties, census tracts, block groups, and census blocks. This paper describes how the geographic spine used internally within DAS to define the initial noisy measurements impacts accuracy of the output database. Specifically, tabulations for geographic areas tend to be most accurate for geographic areas that both 1) can be derived by aggregating together geographic units above the block geographic level of the internal spine, and 2) are closer to the geographic units of the internal spine. After describing the accuracy tradeoffs relevant to the choice of internal DAS geographic spine, we provide the settings used to define the 2020 Census production DAS runs.

Privacy-protected microdata are often the desired output of a differentially private algorithm since microdata is familiar and convenient for downstream users. However, there is a statistical price for this kind of convenience. We show that an uncertainty principle governs the trade-off between accuracy for a population of interest ("sum query") vs. accuracy for its component sub-populations ("point queries"). Compared to differentially private query answering systems that are not required to produce microdata, accuracy can degrade by a logarithmic factor. For example, in the case of pure differential privacy, without the microdata requirement, one can provide noisy answers to the sum query and all point queries while guaranteeing that each answer has squared error $O(1/\epsilon^2)$. With the microdata requirement, one must choose between allowing an additional $\log^2(d)$ factor ($d$ is the number of point queries) for some point queries or allowing an extra $O(d^2)$ factor for the sum query. We present lower bounds for pure, approximate, and concentrated differential privacy. We propose mitigation strategies and create a collection of benchmark datasets that can be used for public study of this problem., Comment: Preprint of NeurIPS 2021 paper

Constraining the maximum likelihood density estimator to satisfy a sufficiently strong constraint, $\log-$concavity being a common example, has the effect of restoring consistency without requiring additional parameters. Since many results in economics require densities to satisfy a regularity condition, these estimators are also attractive for the structural estimation of economic models. In all of the examples of regularity conditions provided by Bagnoli and Bergstrom (2005) and Ewerhart (2013), $\log-$concavity is sufficient to ensure that the density satisfies the required conditions. However, in many cases $\log-$concavity is far from necessary, and it has the unfortunate side effect of ruling out sub-exponential tail behavior. In this paper, we use optimal transport to formulate a shape constrained density estimator. We initially describe the estimator using a $\rho-$concavity constraint. In this setting we provide results on consistency, asymptotic distribution, convexity of the optimization problem defining the estimator, and formulate a test for the null hypothesis that the population density satisfies a shape constraint. Afterward, we provide sufficient conditions for these results to hold using an arbitrary shape constraint. This generalization is used to explore whether the California Department of Transportation's decision to award construction contracts with the use of a first price auction is cost minimizing. We estimate the marginal costs of construction firms subject to Myerson's (1981) regularity condition, which is a requirement for the first price reverse auction to be cost minimizing. The proposed test fails to reject that the regularity condition is satisfied.