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Objective: To quantify global intakes of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) and trends over time among children and adolescents., Design: Population based study., Setting: Global Dietary Database., Population: Children and adolescents aged 3-19 years in 185 countries between 1990 and 2018, jointly stratified at subnational level by age, sex, parental education, and rural or urban residence., Results: In 2018, mean global SSB intake was 3.6 (standardized serving=248 g (8 oz)) servings/week (1.3 (95% uncertainly interval 1.0 to 1.9) in south Asia to 9.1 (8.3 to 10.1) in Latin America and the Caribbean). SSB intakes were higher in older versus younger children and adolescents, those resident in urban versus rural areas, and those of parents with higher versus lower education. Between 1990 and 2018, mean global SSB intakes increased by 0.68 servings/week (22.9%), with the largest increases in sub-Saharan Africa (2.17 servings/week; 106%). Of 185 countries included in the analysis, 56 (30.3%) had a mean SSB intake of ≥7 servings/week, representing 238 million children and adolescents, or 10.4% of the global population of young people., Conclusion: This study found that intakes of SSBs among children and adolescents aged 3-19 years in 185 countries increased by 23% from 1990 to 2018, parallel to the rise in prevalence of obesity among this population globally. SSB intakes showed large heterogeneity among children and adolescents worldwide and by age, parental level of education, and urbanicity. This research should help to inform policies to reduce SSB intake among young people, particularly those with larger intakes across all education levels in urban and rural areas in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the growing problem of SSBs for public health in sub-Saharan Africa., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at https://www.icmje.org/disclosure-of-interest/ and declare the following: support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Heart Association, and Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología in Mexico. LLC reports research funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the American Heart Association, and Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología in Mexico (CONACyT), outside of the submitted work. RM reports research funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and (ended) the US National Institutes of Health, Danone, and Nestle. She also reports consulting from Development Initiatives and as IEG chair for the Global Nutrition Report, outside of the submitted work. FC, JZ, and PS report research funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as the National Institutes of Health, outside of the submitted work. VM reports research funding the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and from the American Heart Association, outside the submitted work. JRS reports research funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as the National Institutes of Health, Nestlé, Rockefeller Foundation, and Kaiser Permanent Fund at East Bay Community Foundation, outside of the submitted work. SBC reports research funding from the US. National Institutes of Health, US. Department of Agriculture, the Rockefeller Foundation, US. Agency for International Development, and the Kaiser Permanente Fund at East Bay Community Foundation, outside the submitted work. SB reports funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, CONACyT, United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (Unicef), and Fundación Rio Arronte, outside the submitted work. DM reports research funding from the US National Institutes of Health, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, Vail Innovative Global Research, and the Kaiser Permanente Fund at East Bay Community Foundation; personal fees from Acasti Pharma, Barilla, Danone, and Motif FoodWorks; is on the scientific advisory board for Beren Therapeutics, Brightseed, Calibrate, Elysium Health, Filtricine, HumanCo, Instacart, January, Perfect Day, Tiny Organics, and (ended) Day Two, Discern Dx, and Season Health; has stock ownership in Calibrate and HumanCo; and receives chapter royalties from UpToDate, outside the submitted work. The investigators did not receive funding from a pharmaceutical company or other agency to write this report, and declare no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: When considering proposals to improve diets, it is important to understand how factors like price and income can affect saturated fat (SF) intake and demand. In this study, we examine and estimate the influence of price and income on intake across 160 countries, by age and sex, and derive sensitivity measures (price elasticities) that vary by age, sex and world region., Design: We econometrically estimate intake responsiveness to income and prices across countries, accounting for differences by world region, age and sex. Intake data by age, sex and country were obtained from the 2018 Global Dietary Database. These data were then linked to global price data for select food groups from the World Bank International Comparison Programme and income data from the World Development Indicators Databank (World Bank)., Results: Intake differences due to price were highly significant, with a 1% increase in price associated with a lower SF intake (% energy/d) of about 4.3 percentage points. We also find significant differences across regions. In high-income countries, median (age 40) intake reductions were 1.4, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points, given a 1% increase in the price of meat, dairy, and oils and fats, respectively. Price elasticities varied with age but not sex. Intake differences due to income were insignificant when regional binary variables were included in the analysis., Conclusion: The results of this study show heterogeneous associations among prices and intake within and across countries. Policymakers should consider these heterogeneous effects as they address global nutrition and health challenges., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are associated with cardiometabolic diseases and social inequities. For most nations, recent estimates and trends of intake are not available; nor variation by education or urbanicity. We investigated SSB intakes among adults between 1990 and 2018 in 185 countries, stratified subnationally by age, sex, education, and rural/urban residence, using data from the Global Dietary Database. In 2018, mean global SSB intake was 2.7 (8 oz = 248 grams) servings/week (95% UI 2.5-2.9) (range: 0.7 (0.5-1.1) in South Asia to 7.8 (7.1-8.6) in Latin America/Caribbean). Intakes were higher in male vs. female, younger vs. older, more vs. less educated, and urban vs. rural adults. Variations by education and urbanicity were largest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 1990 and 2018, SSB intakes increased by +0.37 (+0.29, +0.47), with the largest increase in Sub-Saharan Africa. These findings inform intervention, surveillance, and policy actions worldwide, highlighting the growing problem of SSBs for public health in Sub-Saharan Africa., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

Background: The current school meal nutrition standards, established in 2010, are not fully aligned with the 2020-2025 Dietary Guideline for Americans (DGA). This study evaluates the potential short-term and long-term health and economic benefits of strengthening the school meal standards on added sugars, sodium, and whole grains to be aligned with current guidelines., Methods: We used comparative risk assessment frameworks based on nationally representative data incorporating current demographics, dietary habits, and risk factors of United States children aged 5-18 y from 3 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2013-2018). To estimate short-term impact, the model incorporated estimated dietary changes owing to potential new DGA-aligned school meal nutrition standards and the effect of these changes on childhood body mass index (in kg/m 2 ) and blood pressure. To estimate long-term impact, the model further incorporated data on the sustainability of childhood dietary changes into adulthood, and on demographics and risk factors of United States adults, diet-disease associations, and disease-specific national mortality., Results: In a best-case scenario assuming full school compliance, implementing new DGA-aligned nutritional standards would lower elementary children's BMI by an average 0.14 (95% UI: 0.08-0.20) kg/m 2 and systolic blood pressure by 0.13 (95% UI: 0.06-0.19) (95% mm Hg. Later in life, the new standards were estimated to prevent 10,600 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4820-16,800) annual deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and cancer in adulthood; and save 355,000 (95% UI: 175,000-538,000) disability-adjusted life years and $19.3 (95% UI: 9.35-30.3) B in direct and indirect medical costs each year. Accounting for plausible (incomplete) school compliance, implementation would save an estimated 9110 (95% UI: 2740-15,100) deaths, 302,000 (95% UI: 120,000-479,000) disability-adjusted life years, and $15.9 (95% UI: 4.54-27.2) B in healthcare-related costs per year in later adulthood., Conclusions: Stronger school meal nutrition standards on added sugars, sodium, and whole grains aligned with the 2020-2025 DGA recommendations may improve diet, childhood health, and future adult burdens of CVD, diabetes, cancer, and associated economic costs., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Animal-source foods (ASF) provide nutrition for children and adolescents' physical and cognitive development. Here, we use data from the Global Dietary Database and Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify global, regional and national ASF intakes between 1990 and 2018 by age group across 185 countries, representing 93% of the world's child population. Mean ASF intake was 1.9 servings per day, representing 16% of children consuming at least three daily servings. Intake was similar between boys and girls, but higher among urban children with educated parents. Consumption varied by age from 0.6 at <1 year to 2.5 servings per day at 15-19 years. Between 1990 and 2018, mean ASF intake increased by 0.5 servings per week, with increases in all regions except sub-Saharan Africa. In 2018, total ASF consumption was highest in Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, and lowest in Uganda, India, Kenya and Bangladesh. These findings can inform policy to address malnutrition through targeted ASF consumption programmes., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The global burden of diet-attributable type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not well established. This risk assessment model estimated T2D incidence among adults attributable to direct and body weight-mediated effects of 11 dietary factors in 184 countries in 1990 and 2018. In 2018, suboptimal intake of these dietary factors was estimated to be attributable to 14.1 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.8-14.4 million) incident T2D cases, representing 70.3% (68.8-71.8%) of new cases globally. Largest T2D burdens were attributable to insufficient whole-grain intake (26.1% (25.0-27.1%)), excess refined rice and wheat intake (24.6% (22.3-27.2%)) and excess processed meat intake (20.3% (18.3-23.5%)). Across regions, highest proportional burdens were in central and eastern Europe and central Asia (85.6% (83.4-87.7%)) and Latin America and the Caribbean (81.8% (80.1-83.4%)); and lowest proportional burdens were in South Asia (55.4% (52.1-60.7%)). Proportions of diet-attributable T2D were generally larger in men than in women and were inversely correlated with age. Diet-attributable T2D was generally larger among urban versus rural residents and higher versus lower educated individuals, except in high-income countries, central and eastern Europe and central Asia, where burdens were larger in rural residents and in lower educated individuals. Compared with 1990, global diet-attributable T2D increased by 2.6 absolute percentage points (8.6 million more cases) in 2018, with variation in these trends by world region and dietary factor. These findings inform nutritional priorities and clinical and public health planning to improve dietary quality and reduce T2D globally., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Evidence on what people eat globally is limited in scope and rigour, especially as it relates to children and adolescents. This impairs target setting and investment in evidence-based actions to support healthy sustainable diets. Here we quantified global, regional and national dietary patterns among children and adults, by age group, sex, education and urbanicity, across 185 countries between 1990 and 2018, on the basis of data from the Global Dietary Database project. Our primary measure was the Alternative Healthy Eating Index, a validated score of diet quality; Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension and Mediterranean Diet Score patterns were secondarily assessed. Dietary quality is generally modest worldwide. In 2018, the mean global Alternative Healthy Eating Index score was 40.3, ranging from 0 (least healthy) to 100 (most healthy), with regional means ranging from 30.3 in Latin America and the Caribbean to 45.7 in South Asia. Scores among children versus adults were generally similar across regions, except in Central/Eastern Europe and Central Asia, high-income countries, and the Middle East and Northern Africa, where children had lower diet quality. Globally, diet quality scores were higher among women versus men, and more versus less educated individuals. Diet quality increased modestly between 1990 and 2018 globally and in all world regions except in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, where it did not improve., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Diet is a major modifiable risk factor for human health and overall consumption patterns affect planetary health. We aimed to quantify global, regional, and national consumption levels of animal-source foods (ASF) to inform intervention, surveillance, and policy priorities., Methods: Individual-level dietary surveys across 185 countries conducted between 1990 and 2018 were identified, obtained, standardised, and assessed among children and adults, jointly stratified by age, sex, education level, and rural versus urban residence. We included 499 discrete surveys (91·2% nationally or subnationally representative) with data for ASF (unprocessed red meat, processed meat, eggs, seafood, milk, cheese, and yoghurt), comprising 3·8 million individuals from 134 countries representing 95·2% of the world population in 2018. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to account for differences in survey methods and representativeness, time trends, and input data and modelling uncertainty, with five-fold cross-validation., Findings: In 2018, mean global intake per person of unprocessed red meat was 51 g/day (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 48-54; region-specific range 7-114 g/day); 17 countries (23·9% of the world's population) had mean intakes of at least one serving (100 g) per day. Global mean intake of processed meat was 17 g/day (95% UI 15-21 g/day; region-specific range 3-54 g/day); seafood, 28 g/day (27-30 g/day; 12-44 g/day); eggs, 21 g/day (18-24 g/day; 6-35 g/day); milk 88 g/day (84-93 g/day; 45-185 g/day); cheese, 8 g/day (8-10 g/day; 1-34 g/day); and yoghurt, 20 g/day (17-23 g/day; 7-84 g/day). Mean national intakes were at least one serving per day for processed meat (≥50 g/day) in countries representing 6·9% of the global population; for cheese (≥42 g/day) in 2·3%; for eggs (≥55 g/day) in 0·7%; for milk (≥245 g/day) in 0·3%; for seafood (≥100 g/day) in 0·8%; and for yoghurt (≥245 g/day) in less than 0·1%. Among the 25 most populous countries in 2018, total ASF intake was highest in Russia (5·8 servings per day), Germany (3·8 servings per day), and the UK (3·7 servings per day), and lowest in Tanzania (0·9 servings per day) and India (0·7 servings per day). Global and regional intakes of ASF were generally similar by sex. Compared with children, adults generally consumed more unprocessed red meat, seafood and cheese, and less milk; energy-adjusted intakes of other ASF were more similar. Globally, ASF intakes (servings per week) were higher among more-educated versus less-educated adults, with greatest global differences for milk (0·79), eggs (0·47), unprocessed red meat (0·42), cheese (0·28), seafood (0·28), yoghurt (0·22), and processed meat (0·21). This was also true for urban compared to rural areas, with largest global differences (servings per week) for unprocessed red meat (0·47), milk (0·38), and eggs (0·20). Between 1990 and 2018, global intakes (servings per week) increased for unprocessed red meat (1·20), eggs (1·18), milk (0·63), processed meat (0·50), seafood (0·44), and cheese (0·14)., Interpretation: Our estimates of ASF consumption identify populations with both lower and higher than optimal intakes. These estimates can inform the targeting of intervention, surveillance, and policy priorities relevant to both human and planetary health., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and American Heart Association., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The investigators did not receive funding from a pharmaceutical company or other agency to write this report. JR, JZ, and PS report research funding from Nestlé, outside the submitted work. JC reports research funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, outside the submitted work. RM reports grants from US National Institutes of Health, Nestlé, and Danone, and personal fees from Bunge, Development Initiatives, outside the submitted work. PW reports research grants and contracts from the US Agency for International Development and personal fees from the Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, outside the submitted work. DM reports research funding from the US National Institutes of Health and the Gates Foundation; personal fees from GOED, Bunge, Indigo Agriculture, Motif FoodWorks, Amarin, Acasti Pharma, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, America's Test Kitchen, and Danone; scientific advisory board member for Brightseed, DayTwo, Elysium Health, Filtricine, HumanCo, and Tiny Organics; and chapter royalties from UpToDate, all outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests. Editorial note: the Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published maps and institutional affiliations., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives. To quantify disparities in health and economic burdens of cancer attributable to suboptimal diet among US adults. Methods. Using a probabilistic cohort state-transition model, we estimated the number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths, and economic costs of 15 diet-related cancers attributable to suboptimal intake of 7 dietary factors (a low intake of fruits, vegetables, dairy, and whole grains and a high intake of red and processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages) among a closed cohort of US adults starting in 2017. Results. Suboptimal diet was estimated to contribute to 3.04 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 2.88, 3.20) million new cancer cases, 1.74 (95% UI = 1.65, 1.84) million cancer deaths, and $254 (95% UI = $242, $267) billion economic costs among US adults aged 20 years or older over a lifetime. Diet-attributable cancer burdens were higher among younger adults, men, non-Hispanic Blacks, and individuals with lower education and income attainments than other population subgroups. The largest disparities were for cancers attributable to high consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and low consumption of whole grains. Conclusions. Suboptimal diet contributes to substantial disparities in health and economic burdens of cancer among young adults, men, racial/ethnic minorities, and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. ( Am J Public Health . 2021;111(11):2008-2018. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306475).

Background: Children and adolescents in the USA consume large amounts of daily calories from ultraprocessed foods (UPFs). Recent evidence links UPF consumption to increased body fat in youth. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of reducing UPF consumption on childhood obesity rate in the USA., Methods: We developed a microsimulation model to project the effect of reducing UPF consumption in children's diet on reducing the prevalence of overweight or obesity among US youth. The model incorporated nationally representative data on body mass index (BMI) percentile and dietary intake of 5804 children and adolescents aged 7-18 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2016, and the effect of reducing UPF consumption on calorie intake from a recent randomised controlled trial. Uncertainties of model inputs were incorporated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 1000 simulations., Results: Reducing UPFs in children's diet was estimated to result in a median of -2.09 kg/m 2 (95% uncertainty interval -3.21 to -0.80) reduction in BMI among children and adolescents aged 7-18 years. The median prevalence of overweight (BMI percentile ≥85th) and obesity (BMI percentile ≥95th percentile) was reduced from 37.0% (35.9%, 38.1%) to 20.9% (15.1%, 29.9%) and from 20.1% (19.2%, 21.0%) to 11.0% (7.86%, 15.8%), respectively. Larger BMI and weight reductions were seen among boys than girls, adolescents than children, non-Hispanic black and Hispanic youth than non-Hispanic white youth, and those with lower levels of parental education and family income., Conclusions: Reducing UPF consumption in children's diet has the potential to substantially reduce childhood obesity rate among children and adolescents in the USA., Competing Interests: Competing interests: DM reports research funding from the National Institutes of Health, the Gates Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation; personal fees from GOED, Danone, Motif FoodWorks, Barilla, Amarin, Acasti Pharma, Cleveland Clinic Foundation and America’s Test Kitchen; scientific advisory board, Beren Therapeutics, Brightseed, Calibrate, DayTwo, Elysium Health, Filtricine, Foodome, HumanCo, January and Tiny Organics; and chapter royalties from UpToDate; all outside the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To quantify diet-related burdens of cardiometabolic diseases (CMD) by country, age and sex in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)., Design: Intakes of eleven key dietary factors were obtained from the Global Dietary Database Consortium. Aetiologic effects of dietary factors on CMD outcomes were obtained from meta-analyses. We combined these inputs with cause-specific mortality data to compute country-, age- and sex-specific absolute and proportional CMD mortality of eleven dietary factors in 1990 and 2010., Setting: Thirty-two countries in LAC., Participants: Adults aged 25 years and older., Results: In 2010, an estimated 513 371 (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 423 286-547 841; 53·8 %) cardiometabolic deaths were related to suboptimal diet. Largest diet-related CMD burdens were related to low intake of nuts/seeds (109 831 deaths (95 % UI 71 920-121 079); 11·5 %), low fruit intake (106 285 deaths (95 % UI 94 904-112 320); 11·1 %) and high processed meat consumption (89 381 deaths (95 % UI 82 984-97 196); 9·4 %). Among countries, highest CMD burdens (deaths per million adults) attributable to diet were in Trinidad and Tobago (1779) and Guyana (1700) and the lowest were in Peru (492) and The Bahamas (504). Between 1990 and 2010, greatest decline (35 %) in diet-attributable CMD mortality was related to greater consumption of fruit, while greatest increase (7·2 %) was related to increased intakes of sugar-sweetened beverages., Conclusions: Suboptimal intakes of commonly consumed foods were associated with substantial CMD mortality in LAC with significant heterogeneity across countries. Improved access to healthful foods, such as nuts and fruits, and limits in availability of unhealthful factors, such as processed foods, would reduce diet-related burdens of CMD in LAC.

BACKGROUND Risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalization is robustly linked to cardiometabolic health. We estimated the absolute and proportional COVID-19 hospitalizations in US adults attributable to 4 major US cardiometabolic conditions, separately and jointly, and by race/ethnicity, age, and sex. METHODS AND RESULTS We used the best available estimates of independent associations of cardiometabolic conditions with a risk of COVID-19 hospitalization; nationally representative data on cardiometabolic conditions from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2015 to 2018; and US COVID-19 hospitalizations stratified by age, sex, and race/ethnicity from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network database and from the COVID Tracking Project to estimate the numbers and proportions of COVID-19 hospitalizations attributable to diabetes mellitus, obesity, hypertension, and heart failure. Inputs were combined in a comparative risk assessment framework, with probabilistic sensitivity analyses and 1000 Monte Carlo simulations to jointly incorporate stratum-specific uncertainties in data inputs. As of November 18, 2020, an estimated 906 849 COVID-19 hospitalizations occurred in US adults. Of these, an estimated 20.5% (95% uncertainty interval [UIs], 18.9-22.1) of COVID-19 hospitalizations were attributable to diabetes mellitus, 30.2% (UI, 28.2-32.3) to total obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 ), 26.2% (UI, 24.3-28.3) to hypertension, and 11.7% (UI, 9.5-14.1) to heart failure. Considered jointly, 63.5% (UI, 61.6-65.4) or 575 419 (UI, 559 072-593 412) of COVID-19 hospitalizations were attributable to these 4 conditions. Large differences were seen in proportions of cardiometabolic risk-attributable COVID-19 hospitalizations by age and race/ethnicity, with smaller differences by sex. CONCLUSIONS A substantial proportion of US COVID-19 hospitalizations appear attributable to major cardiometabolic conditions. These results can help inform public health prevention strategies to reduce COVID-19 healthcare burdens.

Background: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption contributes to obesity, a risk factor for 13 cancers. Although SSB taxes can reduce intake, the health and economic impact on reducing cancer burdens in the United States are unknown, especially among low-income Americans with higher SSB intake and obesity-related cancer burdens., Methods: We used the Diet and Cancer Outcome Model, a probabilistic cohort state-transition model, to project health gains and economic benefits of a penny-per-ounce national SSB tax on reducing obesity-associated cancers among US adults aged 20 years and older by income., Results: A national SSB tax was estimated to prevent 22 075 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 16 040-28 577) new cancer cases and 13 524 (95% UI = 9841-17 681) cancer deaths among US adults over a lifetime. The policy was estimated to cost $1.70 (95% UI = $1.50-$1.95) billion for government implementation and $1.70 (95% UI = $1.48-$1.96) billion for industry compliance, while saving $2.28 (95% UI = $1.67-$2.98) billion cancer-related healthcare costs. The SSB tax was highly cost-effective from both a government affordability perspective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] = $1486, 95% UI = -$3516-$9265 per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) and a societal perspective (ICER = $13 220, 95% UI = $3453-$28 120 per QALY). Approximately 4800 more cancer cases and 3100 more cancer deaths would be prevented, and $0.34 billion more healthcare cost savings would be generated among low-income (federal poverty-to-income ratio [FPIR] ≤ 1.85) than higher-income individuals (FPIR > 1.85)., Conclusions: A penny-per-ounce national SSB tax is cost-effective for cancer prevention in the United States, with the largest health gains and economic benefits among low-income Americans., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: In 2010, sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) were estimated to cause 12% of all diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and obesity-related cancer deaths in Mexico. Using new risk estimates for SSBs consumption, we aimed to update the fraction of Mexican mortality attributable to SSBs, and provide subnational estimates by region, age, and sex., Methods: We used an established comparative risk assessment framework. All-cause mortality estimates were calculated from a recent pooled cohort analysis. Age- and sex-specific relative risks for SSBs-disease relationships were obtained from updated meta-analyses. Demographics and nationally representative estimates of SSBs intake were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012; and mortality rates, from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Attributable mortality was calculated by estimating the population attributable fraction of each disease, with uncertainty in data inputs propagated through Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analyses., Results: In Mexican adults 20 years and older, 6.9% (95%UI: 5.4-8.5) of all cause-mortality was attributable to SSBs, representing 40,842 excess deaths/year (95%UI: 31,950-50,138). Furthermore, 19% of diabetes, CVD and obesity-related cancer mortality was attributable to SSBs (95%UI: 11.0-26.5), representing 37,000 excess deaths/year (95%UI 21,240-51,045). Of these, 35.6% were diabetes-related (95%UI 16.4-52.0). Proportional burden was highest in the South (22.8%), followed by the Center (18.0%) and North (17.4%). Men aged 45-64-years in the Center region had highest proportional mortality (37.2%), followed by 20-44-year-old men living in the South (35.7%) and both men and women aged 20-44 living in the Center (34.4%)., Conclusions: Utilizing current evidence linking SSBs to cardiometabolic disease and obesity-related cancers, earlier estimates of Mexican mortality attributable to SSBs could have been underestimated. Mexico urgently needs stronger policies to reduce SSBs consumption and reduce these burdens.

Background: Diet is an important risk factor for cancer that is amenable to intervention. Estimating the cancer burden associated with diet informs evidence-based priorities for nutrition policies to reduce cancer burden in the United States., Methods: Using a comparative risk assessment model that incorporated nationally representative data on dietary intake, national cancer incidence, and estimated associations of diet with cancer risk from meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies, we estimated the annual number and proportion of new cancer cases attributable to suboptimal intakes of seven dietary factors among US adults ages 20 years or older, and by population subgroups., Results: An estimated 80 110 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 76 316 to 83 657) new cancer cases were attributable to suboptimal diet, accounting for 5.2% (95% UI = 5.0% to 5.5%) of all new cancer cases in 2015. Of these, 67 488 (95% UI = 63 583 to 70 978) and 4.4% (95% UI = 4.2% to 4.6%) were attributable to direct associations and 12 589 (95% UI = 12 156 to 13 038) and 0.82% (95% UI = 0.79% to 0.85%) to obesity-mediated associations. By cancer type, colorectal cancer had the highest number and proportion of diet-related cases (n = 52 225, 38.3%). By diet, low consumption of whole grains (n = 27 763, 1.8%) and dairy products (n = 17 692, 1.2%) and high intake of processed meats (n = 14 524, 1.0%) contributed to the highest burden. Men, middle-aged (45-64 years) and racial/ethnic minorities (non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, and others) had the highest proportion of diet-associated cancer burden than other age, sex, and race/ethnicity groups., Conclusions: More than 80 000 new cancer cases are estimated to be associated with suboptimal diet among US adults in 2015, with middle-aged men and racial/ethnic minorities experiencing the largest proportion of diet-associated cancer burden in the United States.

Background: Suboptimal diets are a major contributor to cardiometabolic disease (CMD) mortality, and substantial disparities exist for both dietary quality and mortality risk across income groups in the USA. Research is needed to quantify how food pricing policies to subsidise healthy foods and tax unhealthy foods could affect the US CMD mortality, overall and by Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) eligibility and participation., Methods: Comparative risk analysis based on national data on diet (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2012) and mortality (mortality-linked National Health Interview Survey) and meta-analyses of policy-diet and diet-disease relationships., Results: A national 10% price reduction on fruits, vegetables, nuts and whole grains was estimated to prevent 19 600 CMD deaths/year, including 2.6% (95% UI 2.4% to 2.8%) of all CMD deaths among SNAP participants, 2.7% (95% UI 2.4% to 3.0%) among SNAP-eligible non-participants and 2.6% (95% UI 2.4% to 2.8%) among SNAP-ineligible non-participants. Adding a national 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and processed meats would prevent a total of 33 700 CMD deaths/year, including 5.9% (95% UI 5.4% to 7.4%) of all CMD deaths among SNAP participants, 4.8% (95% UI 4.4% to 5.2%) among SNAP-eligible non-participants and 4.1% (95% UI 3.8% to 4.5%) among SNAP-ineligible non-participants. Adding a SNAP-targeted 30% subsidy for the same healthy foods would offer the largest reductions in both CMD mortality and disparities., Conclusion: National subsidies for healthy foods and taxes on SSBs and processed meats would each reduce CMD mortality; taxes would also reduce CMD mortality more steeply for SNAP participants than for non-participants., Competing Interests: Competing interests: DM reports personal fees from Haas Avocado Board, Pollock Communications, Life Sciences Research Organization, Boston Heart Diagnostics, GOED, DSM, Unilever North American and UpToDate. RM reports research funding from Unilever and personal fees from the World Bank and Bunge, all outside the submitted work. JLPe now is employed by Merck KGaA. For all other authors: none declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: Promising school policies to improve children's diets include providing fresh fruits and vegetables (F&V) and competitive food restrictions on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), yet the impact of national implementation of these policies in US schools on cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk factors and outcomes is not known. Our objective was to estimate the impact of national implementation of F&V provision and SSB restriction in US elementary, middle, and high schools on dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) in children and future CMD mortality., Methods: We used comparative risk assessment (CRA) frameworks to model the impacts of these policies with input parameters from nationally representative surveys, randomized-controlled trials, and systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For children ages 5-18 years, this incorporated national data on current dietary intakes and BMI, impacts of these policies on diet, and estimated effects of dietary changes on BMI. In adults ages 25 and older, we further incorporated the sustainability of dietary changes to adulthood, effects of dietary changes on CMD, and national CMD death statistics, modeling effects if these policies had been in place when current US adults were children. Uncertainty across inputs was incorporated using 1000 Monte Carlo simulations., Results: National F&V provision would increase daily fruit intake in children by as much as 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 15.4, 37.7%), and would have small effects on vegetable intake. SSB restriction would decrease daily SSB intake by as much as 26.5% (95% UI: 6.4, 46.4%), and reduce BMI by as much as 0.7% (95% UI: 0.2, 1.2%). If F&V provision and SSB restriction were nationally implemented, an estimated 22,383 CMD deaths/year (95% UI: 18735, 25930) would be averted., Conclusion: National school F&V provision and SSB restriction policies implemented in elementary, middle, and high schools could improve diet and BMI in children and reduce CMD mortality later in life., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Fiscal interventions are promising strategies to improve diets, reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic diseases; CMD), and address health disparities. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of specific dietary taxes and subsidies on CMD deaths and disparities in the US., Methods: Using nationally representative data, we used a comparative risk assessment to model the potential effects on total CMD deaths and disparities of price subsidies (10%, 30%) on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and nuts/seeds and taxes (10%, 30%) on processed meat, unprocessed red meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. We modeled two gradients of price-responsiveness by education, an indicator of socioeconomic status (SES), based on global price elasticities (18% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES) and recent national experiences with taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (65% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES)., Results: Each price intervention would reduce CMD deaths. Overall, the largest proportional reductions were seen in stroke, followed by diabetes and coronary heart disease. Jointly altering prices of all seven dietary factors (10% each, with 18% greater price-responsiveness by SES) would prevent 23,174 (95% UI 22,024-24,595) CMD deaths/year, corresponding to 3.1% (95% UI 2.9-3.4) of CMD deaths among Americans with a lower than high school education, 3.6% (95% UI 3.3-3.8) among high school graduates/some college, and 2.9% (95% UI 2.7-3.5) among college graduates. Applying a 30% price change and larger price-responsiveness (65%) in low SES, the corresponding reductions were 10.9% (95% UI 9.2-10.8), 9.8% (95% UI 9.1-10.4), and 6.7% (95% UI 6.2-7.6). The latter scenario would reduce disparities in CMD between Americans with lower than high school versus a college education by 3.5 (95% UI 2.3-4.5) percentage points., Conclusions: Modest taxes and subsidies for key dietary factors could meaningfully reduce CMD and improve US disparities.

Purpose: In line with epidemiological and sociocultural changes in Korea over the past decades, reliable estimation of diseases as a result of dietary and metabolic risks is required. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the contributions of dietary and metabolic factors to cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) in Korean adults (25-64 years old) during 2012-2013., Materials and Methods: Distribution of risk factors and cause-specific mortality by gender and age per year was obtained from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and Statistics Korea, respectively. The association between the two was obtained from published meta-analyses. The population-attributable fraction attributable to the risk factors was calculated across gender and age strata (male and female, age groups 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, and 55-64) in 2012 and 2013., Results: The results showed that during the period studied, high body mass index [5628 deaths; uncertainty intervals (UIs): 5473-5781] and blood pressure (4202 deaths; UIs: 3992-4410) were major metabolic risks for CMD deaths, followed by dietary risks such as low intake of whole grain (4107 deaths; UIs: 3275-4870) and fruits (3886 deaths; UIs: 3227-4508), as well as high intake of sodium (2911 deaths, UIs: 2406-3425). Also, males and the younger population were seen more prone to be exposed to harmful dietary risk than their female and older counterparts., Conclusion: The findings provide the necessary information to develop targeted government interventions to improve cardiometabolic health at the population level., Competing Interests: The authors have no financial conflicts of interest., (© Copyright: Yonsei University College of Medicine 2017)

Importance: In the United States, national associations of individual dietary factors with specific cardiometabolic diseases are not well established., Objective: To estimate associations of intake of 10 specific dietary factors with mortality due to heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes (cardiometabolic mortality) among US adults., Design, Setting, and Participants: A comparative risk assessment model incorporated data and corresponding uncertainty on population demographics and dietary habits from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1999-2002: n = 8104; 2009-2012: n = 8516); estimated associations of diet and disease from meta-analyses of prospective studies and clinical trials with validity analyses to assess potential bias; and estimated disease-specific national mortality from the National Center for Health Statistics., Exposures: Consumption of 10 foods/nutrients associated with cardiometabolic diseases: fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds, whole grains, unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), polyunsaturated fats, seafood omega-3 fats, and sodium., Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated absolute and percentage mortality due to heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes in 2012. Disease-specific and demographic-specific (age, sex, race, and education) mortality and trends between 2002 and 2012 were also evaluated., Results: In 2012, 702 308 cardiometabolic deaths occurred in US adults, including 506 100 from heart disease (371 266 coronary heart disease, 35 019 hypertensive heart disease, and 99 815 other cardiovascular disease), 128 294 from stroke (16 125 ischemic, 32 591 hemorrhagic, and 79 578 other), and 67 914 from type 2 diabetes. Of these, an estimated 318 656 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 306 064-329 755; 45.4%) cardiometabolic deaths per year were associated with suboptimal intakes-48.6% (95% UI, 46.2%-50.9%) of cardiometabolic deaths in men and 41.8% (95% UI, 39.3%-44.2%) in women; 64.2% (95% UI, 60.6%-67.9%) at younger ages (25-34 years) and 35.7% (95% UI, 33.1%-38.1%) at older ages (≥75 years); 53.1% (95% UI, 51.6%-54.8%) among blacks, 50.0% (95% UI, 48.2%-51.8%) among Hispanics, and 42.8% (95% UI, 40.9%-44.5%) among whites; and 46.8% (95% UI, 44.9%-48.7%) among lower-, 45.7% (95% UI, 44.2%-47.4%) among medium-, and 39.1% (95% UI, 37.2%-41.2%) among higher-educated individuals. The largest numbers of estimated diet-related cardiometabolic deaths were related to high sodium (66 508 deaths in 2012; 9.5% of all cardiometabolic deaths), low nuts/seeds (59 374; 8.5%), high processed meats (57 766; 8.2%), low seafood omega-3 fats (54 626; 7.8%), low vegetables (53 410; 7.6%), low fruits (52 547; 7.5%), and high SSBs (51 694; 7.4%). Between 2002 and 2012, population-adjusted US cardiometabolic deaths per year decreased by 26.5%. The greatest decline was associated with insufficient polyunsaturated fats (-20.8% relative change [95% UI, -18.5% to -22.8%]), nuts/seeds (-18.0% [95% UI, -14.6% to -21.0%]), and excess SSBs (-14.5% [95% UI, -12.0% to -16.9%]). The greatest increase was associated with unprocessed red meats (+14.4% [95% UI, 9.1%-19.5%])., Conclusions and Relevance: Dietary factors were estimated to be associated with a substantial proportion of deaths from heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes. These results should help identify priorities, guide public health planning, and inform strategies to alter dietary habits and improve health.

Objectives: Over the past 10 years, the burden of chronic diseases in Korea has increased. However, there are currently no quantitative estimates of how changes in diet and metabolic factors have contributed to these shifting burdens. This study aims to evaluate the contributions of dietary and metabolic risk factors to death from cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) such as cardiovascular conditions, strokes and diabetes in Korea, and to estimate how these contributions have changed over the past 10 years (1998-2011)., Design and Methods: We used data on 6 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors by sex, age and year from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The relative risks for the effects of the risk factors on CMD mortality were obtained from meta-analyses. The population-attributable fraction attributable to the risk factors was calculated by using a comparative risk assessment approach across sex and age strata (males and females, age groups 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74 and 75+ years) from 1998 to 2011., Results: The results showed that a suboptimal diet and high blood pressure were the main risk factors for CMD mortality in Korea. High blood pressure accounted for 127 096 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 121 907 to 132 218) deaths from CMD. Among the individual dietary risk factors, a high intake of sodium (42 387 deaths; 95% UI: 42 387 to 65 094) and a low intake of fruit (50 244 deaths; 95% UI: 40 981 to 59 178) and whole grains (54 248 deaths; 95% UI: 47 020 to 61 343) were responsible for the highest number of CMD deaths in Korea., Conclusions: Indicating the relative importance of risk factors in Korea, the results suggest that metabolic and dietary risk factors were major contributors to CMD mortality., Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest: None declared., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)