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The aim of this study was to explore when experts trust their intuition. The Take-The-First heuristic suggests that experts generate a few options based on option validity that match the current situation and probably pick the first one they generated. In chess, the rated quality of moves can be used to analyze fast and slow decisions. We provided players with strategic (long-term) and tactical (short-term) situations and asked for fast choices, further candidate moves, and the best choice. We divided the participants into three groups based on expertise. Results indicate that chess players at lower skill levels were more vulnerable in tactics than in strategy, especially under time pressure. Masters scored better than near-experts on intuitive and final decisions, and whereas near-experts profited from more time, the masters did not. This finding implies that Take-The-First is both boundedly and ecologically rational. Conclusions are made regarding trusting the intuitions of experts.

Objectives: We investigate the determinants of Olympic success. We distinguish between the probability of winning a medal and the overall Olympic success. Furthermore, we examine the impact of the three superpowers (China, Russia, and the United States). Beyond Olympic success as measured by medals, we also investigate the impact of other dependent variables considering additional rankings. Methods: We use sport‐level data for seven Summer Olympic Games (1996–2021), applying weighted market share as a performance indicator to differentiate types of medals and rankings. We employ zero‐inflated beta regressions to estimate separately the probability of having zero market share at the Olympics and the determinants of Olympic success. Results: Our estimations suggest that population positively influences Olympic success. Estimations highlight the role of superpower countries and sports‐level effects in explaining Olympic success. Better economic status is associated with winning a medal at the Olympic Games, but not with the number of medals that have been won. When using different outcome variables for Olympic success, considering not only medal rankings, the determinants of success change significantly. Conclusion: Countries without previous Olympic success should collect economic and human resources to obtain their first medal at the Games. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The notions of luck, risk, noise, and uncertainty could be often read in sports-related literature. However, there was not published a study so far that attempts to summarize the differences and similarities among them. In this paper, we aim to review the most influential papers, books carried out in relation to these concepts. As the topic of uncertainty in sports literature is quite diverse, therefore, we followed a review method aiming for theory development instead of a systematic review. Using an alternative review methodology enabled us to organize the existing theories in three main categories based on who is affected by the uncertainty: spectator, athlete, and sport level. The main finding of our paper is that uncertainty has distinct consequences at different levels. The demand for sport requires a certain level of uncertainty from the fans' point of view to maintain the uncertainty of outcome. Athletes, on the other hand, are adversely affected by uncertainty. In sport level, the impact of the uncertainty on the results should be carefully managed. The topic of uncertainty in sport is characterized by contradiction. From the perspective of spectators, an adequate amount of uncertainty is required to maintain an interest in the sport. However, the athletes do not prefer uncertainty which they could not influence. It is up to decision-makers in sport to establish such regulation which they can balance with the uncertainty to maintain the interest of spectators and to encourage athletes for the best performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]