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Meromictic lakes provide a physically stable environment in which proxies for potentially harmful cyanobacteria are exceptionally well-preserved in the sediments. In Sunfish Lake, a meromictic lake that has recently become the focus of citizen concern due to the apparent rise in cyanobacteria blooms, we used a multi-proxy paleolimnological approach pairing novel spectral (i.e., VNIRS) and molecular (i.e., qPCR) assessment tools to explore long-term cyanobacteria trends. We hypothesized that climate change over the past 50 years altered the Sunfish Lake environment to favour cyanobacteria dominance, resulting in an increased incidence of bloom events. Spectral and genetic results aligned to reveal an unprecedented abundance of cyanobacteria in modern times and coincided with warmer and wetter climatic conditions in the region. Our findings offer evidence for climate-driven shifts in cyanobacteria abundance and suggest that a shift towards warmer and wetter conditions supports the rise of cyanobacteria in lakes. Les lacs meromictiques offrent un milieu stable sur le plan physique dans lequel des caracteristiques temoignant de la presence de cyanobacteries potentiellement nocives sont exceptionnellement bien preservees dans les sediments. Pour le lac Sunfish, un lac meromictique qui suscite depuis peu l'inquietude de citoyens en raison de la hausse apparente de proliferations de cyanobacteries, nous avons utilise une approche paleolimnologique basee sur plusieurs variables substitutives qui jumele de nouveaux outils devaluation spectrale (c.-a-d. VNIRS) et moleculaire (c.-a-d. qPCR) afin d'explorer les tendances a long terme des cyanobacteries. Nous avons postule que les changements climatiques au cours des 50 dernieres annees ont modifie le milieu du lac Sunfish de maniere a favoriser une domination des cyanobacteries qui se traduit par une incidence accrue de proliferations. Les resultats spectraux et genetiques temoignent tous deux d'une abondance sans precedent de cyanobacteries au cours des dernieres decennies coincidant avec des conditions climatiques plus chaudes et humides dans la region. Nos constatations soutiennent l'interpretation de variations induites par le climat de l'abondance de cyanobacteries et indiqueraient que le passage vers des conditions plus chaudes et humides appuie l'augmentation de cyanobacteries dans les lacs. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction Climate change has fundamentally reshaped ecosystems on a global scale, with freshwater lakes being particularly vulnerable due to their predisposition to incorporate atmospheric and terrestrial responses (Adrian et al. [...]

For wetlands to serve as natural climate solutions, accurate estimates of organic carbon (OC) sequestration rates in wetland sediments are needed. Dating using cesium-137 (137Cs) and lead-210 (210Pb) radioisotopes is commonly used for measuring OC sequestration rates in wetland sediments. 137Cs radioisotope dating is relatively simple, with calculations based on a single point representing the onset (1954) or peak (1963) of the 137Cs fallout. 210Pb radioisotope dating is more complex, as the calculations are based on multiple points. Here, we show that reliable dating of sediment cores collected from wetlands can be achieved using either 137Cs or 210Pb dating or their combination. However, 137Cs and 210Pb profiles along the depth of sediment cores need to be screened, analyzed, and interpreted carefully to estimate OC sequestration rates with high precision. To this end, we propose a decision framework for screening 137Cs and 210Pb profiles into high- and low-quality sediment profiles, and we compare dating using the 1954 and 1963 time markers, i.e., the rates of sedimentation and, consequently, OC sequestration over the past ∼ 60 years. Our findings suggest that 137Cs - and 210Pb -based OC sequestration rates are comparable, especially when using the 1963 (vs. 1954) time marker. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is one of the few biological water quality indices detectable using satellite observations. However, models for estimating Chl-a from satellite signals are currently unavailable for many lakes. The application of Chl-a prediction algorithms may be affected by the variance in optical complexity within lakes. Using Lake Winnipeg in Canada as a case study, we demonstrated that separating models by the lake's basins [north basin (NB) and south basin (SB)] can improve Chl-a predictions. By calibrating more than 40 commonly used Chl-a estimation models using Landsat data for Lake Winnipeg, we achieved higher correlations between in situ and predicted Chl-a when building models with separate Landsat-to-in situ matchups from NB and SB (R2 = 0.85 and 0.76, respectively; p < 0.05), compared to using matchups from the entire lake (R2 = 0.38, p < 0.05). In the deeper, more transparent waters of the NB, a green-to-blue band ratio provided better Chl-a predictions, while in the shallower, highly turbid SB, a red-to-green band ratio was more effective. Our approach can be used for rapid Chl-a modeling in large lakes using cloud-based platforms like Google Earth Engine with any available satellite or time series length. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the escalating impact of wildfire smoke on the remote sensing of phytoplankton biomass in freshwater systems. Wildfire smoke disrupts the accuracy of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) retrieval models, with Chl-a often used as a proxy for quantifying phytoplankton biomass. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires, there is a need for the development and refinement of remote sensing methodologies to effectively monitor phytoplankton dynamics under wildfire-impacted conditions. Here we developed a novel approach using Landsat's coastal/aerosol band (B1) to screen for and categorize levels of wildfire smoke interference. By excluding high-interference data (B1 reflectance > 0.07) from the calibration set, Chl-a retrieval model performance using different Landsat band formulas improved significantly, with R2 increasing from 0.55 to as high as 0.80. Our findings demonstrate that Rayleigh-corrected reflectance, combined with B1 screening, provides a robust method for monitoring phytoplankton biomass even under moderate smoke interference, outperforming full atmospheric correction methods. This approach enhances the reliability of remote sensing in the face of increasing wildfire events, offering a valuable tool for the effective management of aquatic environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is debate about the use of wetlands as natural climate solutions due to their ability to act as a "double-edged sword" with respect to climate impacts by both sequestering CO2 while emitting CH4. Here, we used a process-based greenhouse gas (GHG) perturbation model to simulate wetland radiative forcing and temperature change associated with wetland state conversion over 500 years based on empirical carbon flux measurements, and CO2-equivalent (CO2-e.q.) metrics to assess the net flux of GHGs from wetlands on a comparable basis. Three CO2-e.q. metrics were used to describe the relative radiative impact of CO2 and CH4—the conventional global warming potential (GWP) that looks at pulse GHG emissions over a fixed timeframe, the sustained-flux GWP (SGWP) that looks at sustained GHG emissions over a fixed timeframe, and GWP* that explicitly accounts for changes in the radiative forcing of CH4 over time (initially more potent but then diminishing after about a decade)—against model-derived mean temperature profiles. GWP* most closely estimated the mean temperature profiles associated with net wetland GHG emissions. Using the GWP*, intact wetlands serve as net CO2-e.q. carbon sinks and deliver net cooling effects on the climate. Prioritizing the conservation of intact wetlands is a cost-effective approach with immediate climate benefits that align with the Paris Agreement and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change timeline of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Restoration of wetlands also has immediate climate benefits (reduced warming), but with the majority of climate benefits (cooling) occurring over longer timescales, making it an effective short and long-term natural climate solution with additional co-benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater biodiversity is under great threat across the globe as evidenced by more severe declines relative to other types of ecosystems. Some of the main stressors responsible for these concerning trends is habitat fragmentation, degradation, and loss stemming from anthropogenic activities, including energy production, urbanization, agriculture, and resource extraction. Habitat protection and restoration both play an integral role in efforts to save freshwater biodiversity and associated ecosystem services from further decline. In this paper, we summarize the sources of threats associated with habitat fragmentation, degradation, and loss and then outline response options to protect and restore freshwater habitats. Specific response options are to legislate the protection of healthy and productive freshwater ecosystems, prioritize habitats for protection and restoration, enact durable protections, conserve habitat in a coordinated and integrated manner, engage in evidence-based restoration using an adaptive management approach, ensure that potential freshwater habitat alterations are mitigated or off-set, and future-proof protection and restoration actions. Such work should be done through a lens that engages and involves local community members. We identify three broad categories of obstacles that could arise during the implementation of the response options outlined: (a) scientific (e.g., inaccessible data or uncertainties), (b) institutional and management (e.g., capacity issues or differing goals across agencies), and (c) social and political (e.g., prioritizing economic development over conservation initiatives). The protection and restoration of habitats is key to Bend the Curve for freshwater biodiversity, with a comprehensive, connected, and coordinated effort of response options needed to protect intact habitats and restore fragmented, degraded, and lost habitats and the biodiversity and ecosystem services that they support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about the current state of freshwater biodiversity in Canada, one of the countries with the greatest amount of surface waters in the world. To address this knowledge gap, we compiled a list of all available assessments of conservation status for freshwater species (over 3000 taxa) and further evaluated the overall status of six distinct taxonomic groups, focusing on organisms reliant on fresh waters (i.e., aquatic plants, invertebrates (with a focus on freshwater mussels), fishes, herpetofauna (reptiles and amphibians), birds, and mammals). Overall, 11.7% of all freshwater species of plants and animals assessed were found to be 'at risk' (i.e., listed as 'Threatened', 'Endangered', or 'Extirpated') and 17.9% identified as 'Special Concern'. We found that 37.9% of species lacked sufficient data to enable their status to be assessed. Data gaps in Canada's assessment of its freshwater species were most prevalent in invertebrates (excluding freshwater mussels). Given the alarming state of freshwater biodiversity in Canada, we conclude by providing recommendations that focus on evaluating temporal trends and informing conservation actions. Les connaissances sur l'etat actuel de la biodiversite des especes d'eau douce au Canada, un des pays disposant de la plus grande quantite d'eau de surface au monde, sont limitees. Pour examiner cette lacune, nous avons compile une liste de toutes les evaluations disponibles du statut de conservation d'especes d'eau douce (plus de 3000 taxons) et evalue en outre le statut global de six groupes taxonomiques distincts, en mettant l'accent sur les organismes dependant des eaux douces (c.-a-d., les plantes aquatiques, les invertebres (plus particulierement les mulettes), les poissons, l'herpetofaune (reptiles et amphibiens), les oiseaux et les mammiferes). Globalement, 11,7 % de toutes les especes d'eau douce de plantes et d'animaux evaluees sont << en peril >> (c.-a-d., designees << menacees >>, << en voie de disparition >> ou << disparue au pays >>) et 17,9 % ont un statut de conservation << preoccupant >>. Nous constatons que les donnees disponibles sont insuffisantes pour permettre l'evaluation du statut de 37,9 % des especes. Le groupe des invertebres (a l'exception des mulettes) est celui pour lequel la prevalence des cas de manque de donnees pour l'evaluation d'especes d'eau douce au Canada est la plus grande. Au vu de l'etat alarmant de la biodiversite des especes d'eau douce au Canada, nous concluons en formulant des recommandations qui mettent l'accent sur l'evaluation des tendances dans le temps et la production de donnees pour eclairer les mesures de conservation. [Traduit par la Redaction], 1.0. Introduction Despite occupying less than 1% of the Earth's surface, the freshwater biome is home to 12% of all described species, including as much as one third of all [...]

Iron (Fe) is an important regulator of phosphorus and nitrogen use efficiency by phytoplankton. We tested the prediction that pelagic cyanobacteria biomass in surface waters of shallow eutrophic lakes with low ferric ion concentration is linked to the presence, and potential utilization, of low molecular weight Fe-binding ligands. We sampled 30 lakes in Alberta, Canada, in 2012 for nutrients, cyanobacteria biomass, Fe-binding ligands (hydroxamates and catecholates), and toxins. Bioavailable ferric ion concentration (estimated as pFe) was significantly correlated to cyanobacteria biomass (curvilinear relationship, [r.sup.2] = 0.45, P < 0.05). Nonmetric multidimensional models indicated that high cyanobacteria biomass corresponded to lakes with low ferric ion concentration (pFe ~ 19), and regression tree analyses identified a threshold in ferric ion concentration (pFe = 22.1) that separated lakes with relatively low versus high cyanobacteria biomass. Where ferric ion concentration was low, hydroxamate-reactive compound concentration was positively correlated to cyanobacteria biomass. As the environment goes from higher to lower ferric ion concentration, the presence of cyanobacteria increases, and with further reduction of Fe, the environmental need for Fe-binding ligands becomes manifest. Le fer (Fe) est un important regulateur de l'efficacite d'utilisation du phosphore et de l'azote par le phytoplancton. Nous avons verifie des predictions voulant que la biomasse de cyanobacteries pelagiques dans les eaux de surface de lacs eutrophiques peu profonds de faibles teneurs en ions ferriques soit reliee a la presence et a l'utilisation potentielle de ligands fixant le fer de faible masse moleculaire. Nous avons echantillonne 30 lacs en Alberta (Canada) en 2012 pour en analyser les nutriments, la biomasse de cyanobacteries, les ligands fixant le fer (hydroxamates et catecholates) et les toxines. La concentration d'ions ferriques biodisponible (estimee comme etant pFe) est significativement correlee a la biomasse de cyanobacteries (relation curviligne, [r.sup.2] = 0,45, P < 0,05). Des modeles multidimensionnels non metriques indiquent qu'une forte biomasse de cyanobacteries correspond aux lacs de faible concentration d'ions ferriques (pFe ~ 19), et des analyses d'arbres de regression font ressortir un seuil de concentration d'ions ferriques (pFe = 22,1) separant les lacs de biomasse de cyanobacteries relativement faible et forte. La ou la concentration d'ions ferriques est faible, la concentration de composes reagissant avec l'hydraxamate est positivement correlee a la biomasse de cyanobacteries. A mesure que la concentration de Fe dans le milieu diminue, la presence de cyanobacteries augmente et, quand le Fe devient encore plus limite, la presence dans le milieu de ligands fixant le fer devient encore plus necessaire. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction Cyanobacteria algal bloom (cyanobloom) reports have increased in recent decades, due in part to increased public awareness, as well as increased within-lake frequency and seasonal duration (Perovich et al. [...]

Global anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and hazardous air pollutants have produced broad yet regionally disparate changes in climatic conditions and pollutant deposition in the Canadian boreal zone (the boreal). Adapting boreal resource management to atmospheric change requires a holistic understanding and awareness of the ongoing and future responses of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in this vast, heterogeneous landscape. To integrate existing knowledge of and generate new insights from the broad-scale impacts of atmospheric change, we first describe historical and present trends (~1980-2015) in temperature, precipitation, deposition of hazardous air pollutants, and atmospheric-mediated natural disturbance regimes in this region. We then examine their associations with ecosystem condition and productivity, biological diversity, soil and water, and the carbon budget. These associations vary considerably among ecozones and likely undergo further changes under the emerging risks of atmospheric change. We highlight the urgent need to establish long-term, boreal-wide monitoring for many key components of freshwater ecosystems to better understand and project the influences of atmospheric change on boreal water resources. We also formulate three divergent future scenarios of boreal ecosystems in 2050. Our scenario analysis reveals multiple undesirable changes in boreal ecosystem structure and functioning with more variable atmospheric conditions and frequent land disturbances, while continuing business-as-usual management of natural resources. It is possible, though challenging, to reduce unwanted consequences to ecosystems through management regimes focussed on socio-ecological sustainability and developing resilient infrastructure and adaptive resource-management strategies. We emphasize the need for proactive actions and improved foresight for all sectors of society to collaborate, innovate, and invest in anticipation of impending global atmospheric change, without which the boreal zone will face a dim future. Key words: climate change, boreal zone, ecosystem, forest, freshwater. Les emissions de gaz a effet de serre et les polluants atmospheriques dangereux d'origine anthropique a l'echelle mondiale ont entraîne des changements de grande envergure, mais disparates a l'echelle regionale, au niveau des conditions climatiques et des retombees de polluants dans la zone boreale canadienne (le boreal). Afin d'adapter lagestion des ressources boreales aux changements atmospheriques, il est necessaire d'avoir une comprehension et une sensibilisation holistiques des reponses actuelles et futures des ecosystemes terrestres et d'eau douce dans ce vaste paysage heterogene. Afin d'integrer les connaissances existantes et de generer de nouvelles connaissances d'apres les impacts du changement atmospherique a grande echelle, nous decrivons d'abord les tendances historiques et actuelles (~1980-2015) en matiere de temperature, de precipitations, de retombees de polluants atmospheriques dangereux, et de regimes de perturbation naturelle d'origine atmospherique dans cette region. Nous examinons ensuite leurs liens avec l'etat et la productivite de l'ecosysteme, la diversite biologique, le sol et l'eau, et le bilan de carbone. Ces liens varient considerablement d'une ecozone a l'autre et sont susceptibles de subir d'autres changements en raison des risques emergents du changement atmospherique. Nous mettons en evidence le besoin urgent d'etablir une surveillance a long terme a l'echelle de la foret boreale pour de nombreuses composantes cles des ecosystemes d'eau douce afin de mieux comprendre et de mieux projeter les effets des changements atmospheriques sur les ressources en eau boreale. Nous elaborons egalement trois scenarios d'avenir divergents pour les ecosystemes boreaux en 2050. Notre analyse des scenarios revele de multiples changements indesirables au niveau de la structure et du fonctionnement de l'ecosysteme boreal avec des conditions atmospheriques plus variables et des perturbations frequentes du terrain, tout en continuant de gerer de facon habituelle les ressources naturelles. Il est possible, bien que difficile, de reduire les consequences indesirables sur les ecosystemes grace a des regimes de gestion axes sur la durabilite socioecologique, et sur les developpements d'infrastructures resilientes et des strategies de gestion adaptative des ressources. Nous insistons sur la necessite de prendre des mesures proactives et d'ameliorer la prevoyance pour que tous les secteurs de la societe collaborent, innovent et investissent en prevision des changements atmospheriques mondiaux imminents, sans quoi la zone boreale fera face a un avenir assez sombre. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: changement climatique, zone boreale, ecosysteme, foret, eau douce., 1. Introduction The Canadian boreal zone (hereinafter the boreal) extends from the most easterly part of the province of Newfoundland and Labrador to the border of Alaska and Yukon, covering [...]

The policy landscape is changing as Canada considers its energy future. The Canadian boreal zone has a large amount of natural resources, giving Canada options in terms of its energy future. However, the sustainability of the boreal zone has been deemed at risk because of the cumulative effects of intensifying natural resource activities (forestry, mining, oil and gas, and renewable energy) on ecosystems in the face of the uncertainty associated with climate change. As Canada considers the future of the boreal zone, there will be additional challenges to ensure that we do not further disadvantage marginalized human populations living in the boreal zone who are at high risk of the consequences of climate change. In response to these challenges, the Boreal 2050 project was initiated to understand the risk of failing to achieve the future sustainability of the boreal zone using the ISO 31000 risk management framework. First, we identified the major drivers of the risks to the sustainability of the boreal zone, which include atmospheric change, the demand for provisioning and nonprovisioning ecosystem services, demographics and societal values, industrial innovation and infrastructure, and governance. Second, we analyzed the risk of failing to achieve a sustainable boreal zone using scenario analysis, where we framed four plausible future scenarios around two axes of change: the global economy's energy and society's capacity to adapt. Third, we evaluated the risk and determined that present governance systems are driving Canada towards failing to achieve a sustainable boreal zone. To ensure the future sustainability of the boreal, we need to shift from an oil/gas/coal-producing country to a renewable energy leader and shift from using a top-down strategy where Canadians have a low capacity to adapt towards a mixture of top-down and bottom-up participatory strategies where Canadians--particularly Indigenous peoples living in the boreal zone--have a higher capacity to adapt. To facilitate this shift in governance, substantive changes will be required in institutional arrangements designed to protect boreal ecosystems. Key words: boreal zone, ecosystem services, risk management, scenario analysis, energy transition. Le paysage politique est en train de changer alors que le Canada envisage son avenir energetique. La zone boreale canadienne possede une grande quantite de ressources naturelles qui offrent au Canada des options pour son avenir energetique. Toutefois, la durabilite de la zone boreale est consideree menacee en raison des effets cumulatifs de l'intensification des activites liees aux ressources naturelles (foresterie, exploitation miniere, petrole et gaz et energie renouvelable) sur les ecosystemes face a l'incertitude associee au changement climatique. Alors que le Canada envisage l'avenir de la zone boreale, il devra relever d'autres defis pour s'assurer de ne pas desavantager davantage les populations humaines marginalisees qui vivent dans la zone boreale et qui courent un risque eleve de subir les consequences du changement climatique. En reponse a ces defis, le projet Boreal 2050 a ete lance afin de comprendre le risque de ne pas atteindre la durabilite future de la zone boreale en utilisant le cadre de gestion des risques ISO 31000. Premierement, nous avons cerne les principaux facteurs de risque pour la durabilite de la zone boreale, notamment les changements atmospheriques, la demande des services ecosystemiques d'approvisionnement et de non-approvisionnement, la demographie et les valeurs societales, l'innovation industrielle, l'infrastructure et la gouvernance. Deuxiemement, nous avons analyse le risque de ne pas parvenir a une zone boreale durable a l'aide d'une analyse de scenario, où nous avons formule quatre scenarios futurs plausibles autour de deux axes de changement : l'energie de l'economie mondiale et la capacite d'adaptation de la societe. Troisiemement, nous avons evalue le risque et determine que les systemes de gouvernance actuels font en sorte que le Canada ne parvient pas a etablir une zone boreale durable. Pour assurer la viabilite future de la region boreale, nous devons passer d'un pays producteur de petrole, de gaz et de charbon a un pays producteur d'energie renouvelable, et passer d'une strategie descendante où les Canadiens ont une faible capacite d'adaptation, a un melange de strategies participatives ascendantes et descendantes où les Canadiens--en particulier les Autochtones vivant dans la zone boreale--ont une plus grande capacite d'adaptation. Pour faciliter ce changement de gouvernance, des changements importants devront etre apportes aux arrangements institutionnels visant a proteger les ecosystemes boreaux. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : zone boreale, services ecosystemiques, gestion des risques, analyse de scenarios, transition energetique., Introduction Energy is critical to our daily lives. Innovations in capturing, converting, and storing energy have helped the majority of the world heat homes, fertilize crops, and connect with others [...]

Canada will be unable to meet its greenhouse gas pledges--of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% over 2005 levels by 2030--without transitioning away from the current high-carbon economy. This transition will bring new challenges, especially to the Canadian boreal zone. The boreal zone continues to experience intensive natural resource activities including the extraction of forest, mining, oil and gas, and renewable energy products, which in combination with climate change, is placing the future sustainability of the boreal zone at risk. We explored policy options to reduce the risk to the future sustainability of the boreal zone in light of the inevitable energy transition to either a higher or a lower dependence on carbon and the uncertainty of society's capacity to adapt to change. Current policies are putting us on a path towards failure to achieve sustainability of the boreal zone. While current policies may be moving us towards a low-carbon future, they lack a shared vision of what the energy transition will be and engagement by those members of society most impacted; they are top-down, prescriptive, and fragmented, and they lack capacity, accountability, and enforcement. Together these limitations create barriers to society's capacity to adapt to the low-carbon future. Sustainability of the boreal zone will not only require a transition to a low-carbon economy but will require policies that overcome these barriers and create a higher capacity for society to adapt. Key words: risk management, policy, recommendations, boreal zone. Le Canada ne sera pas en mesure de respecter ses engagements en matiere de gaz a effet de serre--de reduire ses emissions de gaz a effet de serre de 30% par rapport aux niveaux de 2005 d'ici 2030--sans graduellement delaisser l'economie actuelle a forte intensite de carbone. Cette transition entraînera de nouveaux defis, surtout dans la zone boreale canadienne. La zone boreale continue de connaître d'intenses activites liees aux ressources naturelles, y compris l'exploitation forestiere, l'exploitation miniere, l'extraction de petrole et de gaz, et les produits d'energie renouvelable, qui, de pair avec le changement climatique, mettent en peril la viabilite future de la zone boreale. Nous avons explore les possibilites d'action visant a reduire le risque pour la viabilite future de la zone boreale a la lumiere de la transition energetique inevitable vers une dependance accrue ou moindre au carbone et de l'incertitude quant a la capacite de la societe a s'adapter au changement. Les politiques actuelles nous mettent sur la voie de l'echec a atteindre la viabilite de la zone boreale. Meme si les politiques actuelles nous orientent vers un avenir a faibles emissions de carbone, elles n'ont pas une vision commune de ce que sera la transition energetique et de l'engagement des membres de la societe les plus touches, elles sont descendantes, prescriptives, et fragmentees, et elles manquent de capacite, de responsabilisation et d'application. Mises ensemble, ces limites creent des obstacles a la capacite de la societe a s'adapter a un avenir faible en emissions de carbone. La viabilite de la zone boreale necessitera non seulement une transition vers une economie a faibles emissions de carbone, mais necessitera des politiques qui surmonteront ces obstacles et permettront a la societe de mieux s'adapter. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : gestion du risque, politique, recommandations, zone boreale., Introduction Canada has vast energy production potential due to the myriad diverse and reliable renewable and nonrenewable energy sources available, including oil, natural gas, biomass, hydroelectricity, coal, nuclear, geothermal, solar, [...]

The Canadian boreal forest is primarily public land, owned and managed by provincial governments on behalf of the public interest. Boreal forest governance consists of a complex patchwork of federal and provincial legislation, policies, tenures, and delegated authorities designed to achieve multiple (and often conflicting) social, ecological, and economic objectives. We examine the implications of boreal governance arrangements for sustainable management of ecosystem services. The paper shows how current multi-level governance arrangements that evolved from Canada's Constitution Act are not effective at managing the cross-scale and cross-sectoral challenges of ecosystem services and have created a crisis of legitimacy for forest decisions. We show how the rise of nonstate arrangements, marketization, and decentralization are partly a response to governance gaps for ecosystem services as well as a reflection of global trends in forest governance. Past trends related to governance themes (the role and scope of government, the level of integration and coordination, Indigenous empowerment, and geopolitical influences) are used to motivate future governance scenarios. Key words: boreal, ecosystem services, governance, geopolitics, Indigenous peoples. La foret boreale canadienne se compose principalement de terres publiques qui appartiennent aux gouvernements provinciaux et qui sont gerees par eux au nom de l'interet public. La gouvernance des forets boreales consiste en une mosaïque complexe de lois, de politiques, de tenures et de pouvoirs delegues federaux et provinciaux visant a atteindre de multiples objectifs sociaux, ecologiques et economiques (souvent contradictoires). Nous examinons les repercussions des accords de gouvernance boreale sur la gestion durable des services ecosystemiques. Le document montre comment les mecanismes actuels de gouvernance a plusieurs niveaux qui ont evolue a partir de la Loi constitutionnelle du Canada ne sont pas efficaces pour gerer les defis multilateraux et intersectoriels des services ecosystemiques et ont cree une crise de legitimite concernant les decisions forestieres. Nous montrons comment l'augmentation des arrangements non etatiques, de la commercialisation et de la decentralisation sont en partie une reponse aux lacunes de gouvernance en matiere de services ecosystemiques ainsi qu'un reflet des tendances mondiales en matiere de gouvernance forestiere. Les tendances anterieures liees aux themes de gouvernance (le role et la portee du gouvernement, le niveau d'integration et de coordination, l'autonomisation des Autochtones et les influences geopolitiques) sont utilisees afin de produire des scenarios de gouvernance futurs. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : boreal, services ecosystemiques, gouvernance, geopolitique, peuples autochtones., 1. Introduction Governance is an important driver of change in Canada's boreal zone and has implications for the sustainability of provisioning ecosystem services (PrES) and nonprovisioning ecosystem services (NPrES). (2) [...]

Much of Canada's industrial sector is driven by natural resources and relies heavily on provisioning services supplied by the boreal zone. However, the sometimes intensive processes used by resource-based industries and their associated infrastructure have significantly altered the region, creating concerns over the future socio-ecological health of the boreal zone. Addressing these concerns will require industries reliant on natural resources from the boreal zone to innovate their processes, management, and infrastructure to improve extraction efficiency while contributing to society's increasing expectations related to sustainability. Here, we explore past, current, and future trends in industrial innovation and infrastructure in the boreal zone for forestry, mining, pulp and paper, oil and gas, and renewable sources of power generation. We assess the role of innovation on the future socio-ecological state of the boreal zone by considering interactions between innovation in industry and infrastructure and other key drivers of change in the boreal, such as atmospheric changes, changing demands for nonprovisioning and provisioning ecosystem services, governance, and demographics and social values. We present future scenarios highlighting three divergent trajectories of change in boreal ecosystems based on past and current states of innovation in industry and infrastructure. We suggest that minimizing impacts of natural resource extraction activities in the boreal zone will only be possible through innovation directly focused on reducing the human footprint on the landscape. Innovation in the information technology sector related to process, management, and end products within these industries and placing greater emphasis on cross-sectoral collaboration will be key to achieving this goal. Key words: boreal zone, innovation, industry, infrastructure, resource development. Une grande partie du secteur industriel au Canada repose sur les ressources naturelles et depend fortement de services fournis par la zone boreale. Cependant, les processus parfois intensifs utilises par les industries d'exploitation des ressources naturelles et leur infrastructure connexe ont significativement change la region, creant des preoccupations par rapport a la sante socio-ecologique future de la zone boreale. Afin d'aborder ces preoccupations, les industries dependantes de ressources naturelles de la zone boreale devront innover leurs processus, leur gestionet l'infrastructure pour ameliorer l'efficacite d'extraction afin de repondre aux attentes croissantes de la societe par rapport a la durabilite. Ici, nous explorons les tendances passees, actuelles et futures dans l'innovation industrielle et l'infrastructure dans la zone boreale dans les domaines de la sylviculture, de l'extraction, des pates et papiers, du petrole et gaz et des sources renouvelables de production electrique. Nous evaluons le role de l'innovation par rapport a l'etat socio-ecologique futur de la zone boreale, en considerant les interactions entre l'innovation au niveau de l'industrie et de l'infrastructure et d'autres facteurs cles du changement du boreal, comme les changements atmospheriques, les demandes de non-approvisionnement et d'approvisionnement de services ecosystemiques, la gouvernance, et les donnees demographiques et les valeurs sociales. Nous presentons des scenarios futurs mettant en evidence trois trajectoires divergentes du changement des ecosystemes boreaux bases sur les etats passes et actuels de l'innovation dans l'industrie et l'infrastructure. Nous suggerons que la reduction des repercussions des activites d'extraction des ressources naturelles dans la zone boreale ne sera possible que grace a l'innovation axee directement sur la reduction de l'empreinte humaine sur le paysage. L'innovation dans le secteur de la technologie de l'information en ce qui concerne les procedes, la gestion et les produits finaux dans ces industries et l'importance accrue accordee a la collaboration intersectorielle seront essentiels pour atteindre cet objectif. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : zone boreale, innovation, industrie, infrastructure, developpement des ressources., 1. Introduction The boreal zone includes 309 million ha of forest and woodlands and 71 million ha of water bodies (Brandt et al. 2013). Development of natural resources in the [...]

The boreal zone, a vast region with abundant natural resources and related industries, has both provisioning and nonprovisioning ecosystem services that draw some people, while warding off others. It is an area that arguably affects many Canadians in different ways and represents a wide range of tangible and intangible values. Changes in demographic patterns over time shed light on the development of the social-ecological landscape of the boreal zone, and elucidate potential changes in the future. Using past and current demographic data, we explore population size, immigration and emigration, and birth and death rates within and outside the boreal zone. We also explore links between demographics, social values, and important factors of change in the boreal zone, and present three contrasting scenarios predicting the state of this zone in 2050. We pay particular attention to the Indigenous population, generational differences, international immigration, and the urban--rural divide. Fertility rates and immigration influence population demographics within and outside the boreal zone, respectively, alluding to potential divergences in social values and between communities located within and outside the boreal zone. The boreal zone is currently comprised of many smaller towns and communities scattered across the landscape, yet it is equally important to consider the influences of larger cities located outside the boreal zone, particularly in terms of governance, population movements, and political power. Considered together, these factors provide insight on social cohesion and connectedness, demand for goods and services, and changes in boreal-centric activities. Key words: demographics, society, values, trends, boreal zone. La zone boreale, une vaste region aux naturelles ressources abondantes et industries connexes, offre des services ecosystemiques d'approvisionnement et de non-approvisionnement qui attirent certaines personnes, tout en tenant d'autres personnes a l'ecart. C'est une region qui concerne sans contredit de nombreux Canadiens de differentes facons et qui represente une vaste gamme de valeurs tangibles et intangibles. Les changements demographiques au fil du temps font la lumiere sur le developpement du paysage socio-ecologique de la zone boreale et elucident les changements possibles a l'avenir. a l'aide de donnees demographiques anterieures et actuelles, nous explorons la taille de la population, l'immigration et l'emigration, ainsi que les taux de natalite et de mortalite a l'interieur et a l'exterieur de la zone boreale. Nous explorons egalement les liens entre les donnees demographiques, les valeurs sociales et les facteurs de changement importants dans la zone boreale, et presentons trois scenarios tres differents qui predisent l'etat de cette zone en 2050. Nous portons une attention particuliere a la population autochtone, aux differences generationnelles, a l'immigration internationale et au clivage urbain-rural. Les taux de fecondite et l'immigration influent sur les caracteristiques demographiques de la population a l'interieur et a l'exterieur de la zone boreale, respectivement, evoquant des divergences possibles entre les valeurs sociales et entre les collectivites situees a l'interieur et a l'exterieur de la zone boreale. Actuellement, la zone boreale est composee de nombreuses petites villes et collectivites eparpillees dans tout le paysage, mais il est tout aussi important de tenir compte des influences des grandes villes situees en dehorsde lazone boreale, notammentence qui concernelagouvernance, les mouvementsdepopulationet lepouvoir politique. Consideres ensemble, ces facteurs donnent un apercu de la cohesion sociale et de l'interdependance, de la demande de biens et de services et de l'evolution des activites boreales. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : demographie, societe, valeurs, tendances, zone boreale., 1. Introduction The Canadian boreal zone is characterized by plentiful natural resources, which have played an important role in shaping the culture and identities of Canadians living both within and [...]

The Canadian boreal zone provides extractive goods and services (provisioning ecosystem services (PrES)) to domestic and global markets and makes a significant contribution to the Canadian economy. The intensity and location of these extractive activities, however, may positively or negatively affect the availability of other benefits that the Canadian and global society receive from the boreal. Where PrES compete, managing these activities along with their impacts to boreal ecosystems becomes a balancing act between the need for resource extraction and the continued availability of the other benefits from ecosystems. Management measures and policies are more likely to succeed if they are designed with foresight, which means accounting for how demand, a key driver of change in the boreal, may change in the future. To help this process, we present three divergent, yet plausible future scenarios based on the analysis of: (i) the capacity of the boreal to provide wood products, fossil fuels, metals and minerals, and hydropower and other renewables; (ii) past trends (1985-2015) and key events in the demand for these PrES; (iii) the interaction of demand for PrES with other drivers of change to the boreal zone; and (iv) the synergies and trade-offs between PrES. We find that historically and currently the capacity of the boreal to provide these PrES exceeds the amount currently supplied. However, the capacity of different PrES and location of extractive activities are spatially dispersed creating a spatial and temporal patchwork of associated risks to local ecosystem integrity and the supply of non-PrES. In addition, these scenarios suggest that the future of boreal PrES is very uncertain and highly dependent on how other drivers of change (namely governance and geopolitics, societal values and climate change) play out in the future. Given the spatial complexity, we find that the cumulative effect of these drivers (e.g., climate change) will determine what paths unfold for different areas of the boreal, and we conclude that careful consideration and planning must be given to ensure that the balance between PrES and non-PrES is maintained. Key words: provisioning ecosystem services, wood products, fossil fuels, mining, renewable energy. La zone boreale canadienne fournit des biens et services d'extraction (approvisionnement de services ecosystemiques (ASE)) aux marches domestique et mondial et contribue de facon importante a l'economie canadienne. L'intensite et l'emplacement de ces activites d'extraction peuvent, cependant, influer positivement ou negativement sur la disponibilite d'autres avantages que les societes canadienne et mondiale recoivent du boreal. Ou les ASE sont en concurrence, gerer ces activites et leurs impacts sur les ecosystemes boreaux devient une question d'equilibre entre le besoin d'extraire les ressources et le maintien d'une disponibilite continue des autres avantages des ecosystemes. Des mesures et des politiques de gestion vont probablement mieux reussir si elles sont concues de facon prevoyante, ce qui veut dire, en rendant compte de comment la demande, un facteur cle du changement du boreal, peut changer a l'avenir. Pour aider ce processus, nous presentons trois scenarios futurs opposes, pourtant plausibles bases sur l'analyse de: (i) la capacite du boreal de fournir des produits du bois, des combustibles fossiles, des metaux et des mineraux et de l'hydro-electricite et d'autres energies renouvelables; (ii) les tendances passees (1985-2015) et les evenements cles au niveau de la demande de ces ASE; (iii) l'interaction de la demande d'ASE avec d'autres facteurs de changement dans la zone boreale; et (iv) les synergies et les compromis entre les ASE. Nous constatons qu'historiquement et qu'actuellement la capacite des boreaux de fournir ces ASE excede le montant actuellement fourni. Cependant, la capacite de differents ASE et l'emplacement des activites d'extraction sont disperses dans l'espace creant une mosaique spatiale et temporelle des risques associes a l'integrite d'ecosysteme local et l'apport de services ecosystemiques de non-approvisionnement. De plus, ces scenarios suggerent que l'avenir des ASE boreaux soit tres incertain et hautement dependant de comment d'autres facteurs de changement (a savoir la gouvernance et la geopolitique, les valeurs sociales et le changement climatique) entrent en jeu a l'avenir. Compte tenu de la complexite spatiale, nous constatons que l'effet cumulatif de ces facteurs (p. ex., le changement climatique) determinera les trajectoires qui se derouleront dans les differentes regions de la foret boreale, et nous concluons qu'il faut examiner attentivement et planifier afin d'assurer le maintien de l'equilibre entre les ASE et les non ASE. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: approvisionnement de services ecosystemiques, produits du bois, combustibles fossiles, exploitation des mines, energie renouvelable., 1. Introduction The boreal zone contains more surface freshwater than any other biome on the planet, and it stores more than a third of the terrestrial carbon stock (Burton et [...]

In response to global climate change, Canada is transitioning towards a low-carbon economy and the need for policy approaches that are effective, equitable, coordinated, and both administratively and politically feasible is high. One point is clear; the transition is intimately tied to the vast supply of ecosystem services in the boreal zone of Canada. This paper describes four contrasting futures for the boreal zone using scenario analysis, which is a transdisciplinary, participatory approach that considers alternative futures and policy implications under conditions of high uncertainty and complexity. The two critical forces shaping the four scenarios are the global economy's energy and society's capacity to adapt. The six drivers of change are atmospheric change, the demand for provisioning ecosystem services, the demand for nonprovisioning ecosystem services, demographics, and social values, governance and geopolitics, and industrial innovation and infrastructure. The four scenarios include: (i) the Green Path, where a low-carbon economy is coupled with high adaptive capacity; (ii) the Uphill Climb, where a low-carbon economy is instead coupled with low adaptive capacity; (iii) the Carpool Lane, where society has a strong capacity to adapt but a reliance on fossil fuels; and (iv) the Slippery Slope, where there is both a high-carbon economy and a society with low adaptive capacity. The scenarios illustrate the importance of transitioning to a low-carbon economy and the role of society's adaptive capacity in doing so. However, they also emphasize themes like social inequality and adverse environmental outcomes arising from the push towards climate change mitigation. Key words: boreal zone, scenario analysis, low-carbon transition, ecosystem services, climate change. En reponse au changement climatique mondial, le Canada fait la transition vers une economie a faibles emissions de carbone, et le besoin d'approches politiques efficaces, equitables, coordonnees et realisables tant administrativement que politiquement est grand. Un point est clair: la transition est intimement liee a l'enorme provision de services ecosystemique dans la zone boreale du Canada. Cet article decrit quatre avenirs contrastants pour la zone boreale utilisant l'analyse de scenarios, une approche transdisciplinaire et participative qui considere les options d'avenir et les incidences politiques dans des situations de grande incertitude et complexite. Les deux forces critiques determinant les quatre scenarios sont l'energie de l'economie mondiale et la capacite de la societe de s'adapter. Les six vecteurs de changement sont le changement atmospherique, la demande d'approvisionnement de services ecosystemiques, la demande de non approvisionnement de services ecosystemiques, les donnees demographiques et sociales, la gouvernance et la geopolitique, et finalement l'innovation et l'infrastructure industrielles. Les quatre scenarios incluent: (i) le virage vert (<< Green Path >>), ou une economie a faibles emissions de carbone est jumelee a une grande capacite d'adaptation; (ii) la montee penible (<< Uphill Climb >>), ou une economie a faibles emissions de carbone est plutot jumelee a une faible capacite d'adaptation; (iii) la voie de covoiturage (<< Carpool Lane >>), ou la societe a une forte capacite d'adaptation, mais une dependance aux combustibles fossiles; et (iv) la pente glissante (<< Slippery Slope >>), ou il y a a la fois une economie a fortes emissions de carbone et une societe a faible capacite d'adaptation. Les scenarios illustrent l'importance de faire la transition vers une economie a faibles emissions de carbone et le role de la capacite d'adaptation de la societe a cet egard. Cependant, ils mettent egalement l'accent sur des themes tels que l'inegalite sociale et les resultats environnementaux negatifs decoulant de la poussee vers l'attenuation des changements climatiques. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: approvisionnement de services ecosystemiques, produits du bois, combustibles fossiles, exploitation des mines, energie renouvelable., 1. Introduction The current impacts and future threats of global climate change present a unique mix of responsibilities and challenges for every nation as they transition towards a low-carbon economy [...]

The Canadian boreal zone provides ecosystem services from local to global scales. Either directly or indirectly, demands for these services have and will continue to serve as drivers of change in the region. Here we present evidence for past, present, and potential future demand for maintaining nonprovisioning ecosystem services (NPrES), defined as indirect and nonmarketable services obtained from ecosystems as a driver of change in the boreal zone. Our evidence of demand stems from federal and provincial policies, actions by Indigenous peoples, and nongovernmental initiatives that aim to maintain the sustainability of natural resource extraction and ecosystem condition of the boreal. Presently, the demand for NPrES influences decisions related to natural resource development (e.g., forestry) that in turn impacts the condition of the boreal zone. Informed by the present conditions and past trends, three future scenarios to the year 2050 are presented that contrast in their trajectory-status quo, increased demand for NPrES, and decreased demand for NPrES. We also summarize the interactions among other drivers of change in the boreal and the synergies and trade-offs among the different types of demand for NPrES. Ultimately, sustainability of the boreal zone and the ecosystem services it provides will result from a complex suite of interacting drivers of change, where the balance of demands for provisioning and NPrES will continue to influence regional conditions. Key words: biodiversity, boreal zone, Canada, ecosystem services, sustainability. La zone boreale canadienne fournit des services ecosystemiques autant au niveau local que planetaire. Que ce soit directement ou indirectement, les demandes pour ces services ont contribue et elles continueront a contribuer aux facteurs de changement dans la region. Ici, nous presentons la preuve de la demande passee, presente et possible a l'avenir pour le maintien des services ecosystemiques de non-approvisionnement (SENA), definis comme etant des services indirects et non commercialisables obtenus des ecosystemes, comme un facteur de changement dans la zone boreale. Notre preuve de demande provient des politiques au niveau federal et provincial, des actions par les peuples autochtones et des initiatives non gouvernementales qui visent a maintenir la durabilite de l'extraction des ressources naturelles et la condition ecosystemique du boreal. Actuellement, la demande de SENA influe sur les decisions liees au developpement des ressources naturelles (p. ex., foresterie) qui a son tour influe sur la condition de la zone boreale. A l'aide de l'information sur les conditions presentes et les tendances passees, trois scenarios futurs jusqu'a l'annee 2050 sont presentes lesquels sont opposes dans leur trajectoire--le statu quo, une demande croissante de SENA et une demande decroissante de SENA. Nous resumons aussi les interactions entre les autres facteurs de changement du boreal ainsi que les synergies et compromis entre les differents types de demande de SENA. En fin de compte, la durabilite de la zone boreale et des services ecosystemiques qu'elle fournit proviendra d'une gamme complexe de facteurs de changement interagissant entre eux, ou l'equilibre entre les demandes d'approvisionnement et de SENA continuera a influer sur les conditions regionales. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: biodiversite, zone boreale, Canada, services ecosystemiques, durabilite., Introduction The Canadian boreal zone is a large, heterogeneous landscape that comprises 309 million ha of forests and woodlands, and 71 million ha of waterbodies (Brandt et al. 2013). This [...]