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We analyze stellar streams in action-angle coordinates combined with recent local direct acceleration measurements to provide joint constraints on the potential of our Galaxy. Our stream analysis uses the Kullback-Leibler divergence with a likelihood analysis based on the two-point correlation function. We provide joint constraints from pulsar accelerations and stellar streams for local and global parameters that describe the potential of the Milky Way (MW). Our goal is to build an ``acceleration ladder", where direct acceleration measurements that are currently limited in dynamic range are combined with indirect techniques that can access a much larger volume of the MW. To constrain the MW potential with stellar streams, we consider the Palomar 5, Orphan, Nyx, Helmi and GD1 streams. Of the potential models that we have considered here, the preferred potential for the streams is a two-component Staeckel potential. We also compare the vertical accelerations from stellar streams and pulsar timing, defining a function $f(z) = \alpha_{1pulsar}z - \frac{\partial\Phi}{\partial z}$, where $\Phi$ is the MW potential determined from stellar streams, and $\alpha_{1~\rm pulsar}z$ is the vertical acceleration determined from pulsar timing observations. Our analysis indicates that the Oort limit determined from streams is consistently (regardless of the choice of potential) lower than that determined from pulsar timing observations. The calibration we have derived here may be used to correct the estimate of the acceleration from stellar streams., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, 1 table. Accepted by ApJ Letters

We describe the discovery of a solar neighborhood (d=468 pc) binary system with a main-sequence sunlike star and a massive non-interacting black hole candidate. The spectral energy distribution (SED) of the visible star is described by a single stellar model. We derive stellar parameters from a high signal-to-noise Magellan/MIKE spectrum, classifying the star as a main-sequence star with $T_{\rm eff} = 5972 \rm K$, $\log{g} = 4.54$, and $M = 0.91$ \msun. The spectrum shows no indication of a second luminous component. To determine the spectroscopic orbit of the binary, we measured radial velocities of this system with the Automated Planet Finder, Magellan, and Keck over four months. We show that the velocity data are consistent with the \textit{Gaia} astrometric orbit and provide independent evidence for a massive dark companion. From a combined fit of our spectroscopic data and the astrometry, we derive a companion mass of $11.39^{+1.51}_{-1.31}$\msun. We conclude that this binary system harbors a massive black hole on an eccentric $(e =0.46 \pm 0.02)$, $185.4 \pm 0.1$ d orbit. These conclusions are independent of \cite{ElBadry2022Disc}, who recently reported the discovery of the same system. A joint fit to all available data (including \cite{ElBadry2022Disc}'s) yields a comparable period solution, but a lower companion mass of $9.32^{+0.22}_{-0.21} M_{\odot}$. Radial velocity fits to all available data produce a unimodal solution for the period that is not possible with either data set alone. The combination of both data sets yields the most accurate orbit currently available., Comment: 30 pages, 17 figures, accepted to AAS journals (various changes in response to referee comments)

Gravitationally lensed supernovae (glSNe) are of interest for time delay cosmology and SN physics. However, glSNe detections are rare, owing to the intrinsic rarity of SN explosions, the necessity of alignment with a foreground lens, and the relatively short window of detectability. We present the Las Cumbres Observatory Lensed Supernova Search, LCOLSS, a targeted survey designed for detecting glSNe in known strong-lensing systems. Using cadenced $r^\prime$-band imaging, LCOLSS targeted 112 galaxy-galaxy lensing systems with high expected SN rates, based on estimated star formation rates. No plausible glSN was detected by LCOLSS over two years of observing. The analysis performed here measures a detection efficiency for these observations and runs a Monte Carlo simulation using the predicted supernova rates to determine the expected number of glSN detections. The results of the simulation suggest an expected number of detections and $68\%$ Poisson confidence intervals, $N_{SN} = 0.20, [0,2.1] $, $N_{Ia} = 0.08, [0,2.0]$, $N_{CC} = 0.12, [0,2.0]$, for all SN, Type Ia, and core-collapse (CC) SNe respectively. These results are broadly consistent with the absence of a detection in our survey. Analysis of the survey strategy can provide insights for future efforts to develop targeted glSN discovery programs. We thereby forecast expected detection rates for the Rubin observatory for such a targeted survey, finding that a single visit depth of 24.7 mag with the Rubin observatory will detect $0.63 \pm 0.38$ SNe per year, with $0.47 \pm 0.28$ core collapse SNe per year and $0.16 \pm 0.10$ Type Ia SNe per year., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, 5 tables. Submitted to MNRAS

We present a model for the formation of the Magellanic Stream (MS) due to ram pressure stripping. We model the history of the Small and Large Magellanic Clouds in the recent cosmological past in a static Milky Way potential with diffuse halo gas, using observationally motivated orbits for the Magellanic Clouds derived from HST proper motions within the potential of the Milky Way. This model is able to reproduce the trailing arm but does not reproduce the leading arm feature, which is common for models of the stream formation that include ram pressure stripping effects. While our model does not outperform other models in terms of matching the observable quantities in the MS, it is close enough for our ultimate goal -- using the MS to estimate the MW mass. From analyzing our grid of models, we find that there is a direct correlation between the observed stream length in our simulations and the mass of the Milky Way. For the observed MS length, the inferred Milky Way mass is $1.5 \pm 0.32 \times 10^{12}$ $M_\odot$, which agrees closely with other independent measures of the Milky Way mass. We also discuss the MS in the context of HI streams in galaxy clusters, and find that the MS lies on the low-mass end of a continuum from Hickson groups to the Virgo cluster. As a tracer of the dynamical mass in the outer halo, the MS is a particularly valuable probe of the Milky Way's potential., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 15 pages, 14 figures

Background: Natural or quasi experiments are appealing for public health research because they enable the evaluation of events or interventions that are difficult or impossible to manipulate experimentally, such as many policy and health system reforms. However, there remains ambiguity in the literature about their definition and how they differ from randomised controlled experiments and from other observational designs. Methods: We conceptualise natural experiments in in the context of public health evaluations, align the study design to the Target Trial Framework, and provide recommendation for improvement of their design and reporting. Results: Natural experiment studies combine features of experiments and non-experiments. They differ from RCTs in that exposure allocation is not controlled by researchers while they differ from other observational designs in that they evaluate the impact of event or exposure changes. As a result they are, in theory, less susceptible to bias than other observational study designs. Importantly, the strength of causal inferences relies on the plausibility that the exposure allocation can be considered "as-if randomised". The target trial framework provides a systematic basis for assessing the plausibility of such claims, and enables a structured method for assessing other design elements. Conclusions: Natural experiment studies should be considered a distinct study design rather than a set of tools for analyses of non-randomised interventions. Alignment of natural experiments to the Target Trial framework will clarify the strength of evidence underpinning claims about the effectiveness of public health interventions., Comment: 28 pages, 1 figure, 1 table, 1 supplementary table

High precision spectrographs can enable not only the discovery of exoplanets, but can also provide a fundamental measurement in Galactic dynamics. Over about ten year baselines, the expected change in the line-of-sight velocity due to the Galaxy's gravitational field for stars at $\sim$ kpc scale distances above the Galactic mid-plane is $\sim$ few - 10 cm/s, and may be detectable by the current generation of high precision spectrographs. Here, we provide theoretical expectations for this measurement based on both static models of the Milky Way and isolated Milky Way simulations, as well from controlled dynamical simulations of the Milky Way interacting with dwarf galaxies. We simulate a population synthesis model to analyze the contribution of planets and binaries to the Galactic acceleration signal. We find that while low-mass, long-period planetary companions are a contaminant to the Galactic acceleration signal, their contribution is very small. Our analysis of $\sim$ ten years of data from the LCES HIRES/Keck precision radial velocity (RV) survey shows that slopes of the RV curves of standard RV stars agree with expectations of the local Galactic acceleration near the Sun within the errors, and that the error in the slope scales inversely as the square root of the number of observations. Thus, we demonstrate that a survey of stars with low intrinsic stellar jitter at kpc distances above the Galactic mid-plane for realistic sample sizes can enable a direct determination of the dark matter density., Comment: accepted to ApJ Letters

We show that Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of dwarf galaxies interacting with a Milky Way-like disk produce moving groups in the simulated stellar disk. We analyze three different simulations: one that includes dwarf galaxies that mimic the Large Magellanic Cloud, Small Magellanic Cloud and the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal; another with a dwarf galaxy that orbits nearly in the plane of the Milky Way disk; and a null case that does not include a dwarf galaxy interaction. We present a new algorithm to find large moving groups in the $V_R, V_\phi$ plane in an automated fashion that allows us to compare velocity sub-structure in different simulations, at different locations, and at different times. We find that there are significantly more moving groups formed in the interacting simulations than in the isolated simulation. A number of dwarf galaxies are known to orbit the Milky Way, with at least one known to have had a close pericenter approach. Our analysis of simulations here indicates that dwarf galaxies like those orbiting our Galaxy produce large moving groups in the disk. Our analysis also suggests that some of the moving groups in the Milky Way may have formed due to dynamical interactions with perturbing dwarf satellites. The groups identified in the simulations by our algorithm have similar properties to those found in the Milky Way, including similar fractions of the total stellar population included in the groups, as well as similar average velocities and velocity dispersions., Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Major revisions in the accepted version of the paper