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We provide a systematic empirical assessment of the Minsky hypothesis that business fluctuations stem from irrational swings in expectations. Using predictable firm-level forecast errors, we build an aggregate index of irrational expectations and use it to provide three sets of results. First, we show that our index predicts aggregate credit cycles. Next, we show that these predictable credit cycles drive cycles in firm-level debt issuance and investment and similar cycles between financially constrained and unconstrained firms, as Minsky predicts. Finally, we show more pronounced cycles in firm-level financing and investment for firms with ex ante more optimistic expectations. (JEL G31, G32, G40, E32, E44) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze a dynamic credit market where banks choose lending standards, modeled as costly effort to screen out bad borrowers. Tighter standards worsen the borrower pool, increasing banks' incentives to employ tight standards in the future. This dynamic complementarity in lending standards can amplify and prolong downturns, decreasing lending and increasing credit spreads. Because lending standards have negative externalities, the market can converge to a steady state with inefficiently tight lending standards. We discuss the role of optimal policy to avoid this outcome as well as the impact of balance sheet costs on lending standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is the first to study the relation between financial restatements and restatement firms' demand for trade credit as a source of financing. Using a sample of U.S.-listed firms for the 2000–2016 period, we find that restatement firms tend to use more trade credit in the year following the restatement disclosure year than do non-restatement firms. Moreover, we find evidence that restatement firms use trade credit to substitute for the reduced reliance on short- and long-term loans. Our further analysis reveals that restatement firms can obtain more trade credit when the firms promptly change the CEOs as a signal for firms' attempt to repair damaged organizational legitimacy. Taken together, our findings suggest that restatement firms experiencing difficulties in obtaining conventional borrowings tend to resort to trade credit as an alternative source of financing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do inaccurate priors about the distribution of interest rates affect search and outcomes in consumer credit markets? Consumer credit markets feature large amounts of within-borrower price dispersion in interest rates; if consumers are unaware of the extent of this price dispersion, they may shop less and take out loans at higher interest rates than they would otherwise. We conducted a randomized controlled trial with 112,063 loan seekers in Chile where we showed treated participants a price comparison tool that we built using administrative data from Chile’s financial regulator. The tool shows loan seekers a conditional distribution of interest rates based on similar loans obtained recently by similar borrowers, using data on the universe of consumer loans merged with borrower characteristics. We also cross-randomized whether we asked participants their priors about the distribution of interest rates. We find that consumers thought interest rates were lower than they actually were, and the price comparison tool caused them to increase their expectations about the interest rate they would obtain by 56%. Consumers also underestimated price dispersion, and our price comparison tool caused them to increase their estimates of dispersion by 69%. The price comparison tool did not cause people to search or apply at more institutions, but it did cause them to receive 13% more offers and 11% lower interest rates, and to be 28% more likely to negotiate with their lender and 4.7% more likely to take out a loan. In contrast, merely asking participants their expectations about interest rates led them to search at 4% more institutions and obtain 9% lower interest rates.

We investigate whether firms' number of credit relationships with financial institutions affects labor market outcomes. Using 5 million observations on matched credit and labor panel data from Brazil, we estimate IV regressions, employing exogenous variation in firm-lender relationships due to nationwide bank M&A activity. Firms with more relationships employ more workers and pay higher wage bills. Credit availability, cost of credit, and financial institution heterogeneity are economic channels. The firm-level results translate into positive macroeconomic effects in municipalities and states. The evidence is novel and indicates the positive effects of multiple relationships on labor market outcomes in an emerging economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After exogenous demand shocks caused by natural disasters, FinTech lenders are more responsive to increased demand for reconstruction mortgages than traditional banks and non-FinTech shadow banks. Both FinTech and traditional banks increase credit supply, but FinTech supply is more elastic without increases in risk-adjusted interest rates or delinquency rates. Comparing lending supply channels, banks respond to regulatory incentives to lend to damaged areas, whereas FinTech lenders supply more credit when traditional banks rely more on balance sheet financing and physical branch networks. Compared to traditional banks, FinTech lenders increase supply elasticity more aggressively in response to local competitive pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the future, large language models (LLMs) may enhance the delivery of healthcare, but there are risks of misuse. These methods may be trained to allocate resources via unjust criteria involving multimodal data - financial transactions, internet activity, social behaviors, and healthcare information. This study shows that LLMs may be biased in favor of collective/systemic benefit over the protection of individual rights and could facilitate AI-driven social credit systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Justice‐involved youth (JIY) display skills deficits in a variety of domains, but particularly in life skills such as health habits, obtaining a job, and maintaining finances. These skills are particularly important for JIY, who often come from historically disenfranchised communities. This population encounters many challenges as they transition from juvenile correctional facilities to their respective communities. To have the greatest impact, these skills should likely be taught prior to the transition. Thus, the purpose of this study was to teach basic personal finance skills to adolescent males in a juvenile residential treatment facility, using an information packet with rehearsal and feedback. The intervention was specifically chosen to be minimally invasive due to the challenges presented by the COVID‐19 pandemic relating to providing services to JIY. Data were analyzed visually using nonconcurrent multiple baseline designs. The results of the study showed the intervention was moderately effective at teaching basic financial skills relating to budgeting, banking, and credit to four participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial social work extends inclusion by providing clients access to financial products, services, and technology. We summarize evidence about how financial technology impacts economic inequality and discuss implications for social work practice, education, and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Apprenticeships in England, while defined by level and typical duration, are not quantified regarding the number of learning hours required to achieve the outcomes specified, as with other regulated qualifications and accredited programmes. This paper proposes an approach to ascribe credit to apprenticeships recognising both on-and-off-the-job learning to remove some of the existing barriers to accessing higher education (HE) and the professions. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed methodological approach resulting in a total learning hours/credit value was proposed. Findings: There is significant HE-wide confusion regarding the amount of learning/training that is required to complete apprenticeships in England. Whilst sector guidance made it clear that there was no prescribed method to ascribe credit to qualifications, programmes, modules, units or apprenticeships by drawing out the core principles within current practice, a key outcome of this project was the development of a method to ascribe a credit value to apprenticeships. Research limitations/implications: There is potential to support further research into the recognition of prior learning as a specialised pedagogy and for reflecting on apprenticeship practice in other roles and sectors. Practical implications: Whilst the project underpinning this paper focused on the healthcare sector, the method used to ascribe credit to the level-3 healthcare support worker apprenticeship was not sector specific and can therefore be applied to apprenticeships within other contexts providing more widespread benefits to workforce development. Social implications: Policy makers must ensure that employers and providers are clear that the minimum statutory off-the-job hours constitute an apprentice employment entitlement, which must not be conflated with total apprenticeship learning hours requirements. This recommended policy clarification could assist in simplifying the process required for ascribing credit to apprenticeships and at the same time support a move towards better and more consistent recognition of the value of apprenticeship learning. Originality/value: It is a first attempt to ascribe a credit value to an apprenticeship in England for the specific purpose of facilitating progression to HE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores young people's consumption of credit and the role of credit and debt in the distinction between youth and adulthood. The article engages with recent shifts in the nature of credit that have turned credit into an object of consumption in itself, as well as broader arguments about the financialisation of daily life, in order to understand the temporalities and moral distinctions enacted in different forms of credit and debt among youth. While it is well recognised that financialised capitalism operates and creates value from differences including gender, racialisation and class, the formation of youth subjectivities through credit and debt technologies remains unexplored in the literature despite an emerging crisis of consumer credit among young people. With this in mind, this article draws on a qualitative study of youth, credit and debt, to show that young people experience debt within contradictory temporalities and calculative logics, including the long-term 'investments' required to become an adult, and the logic of consumption attached to consumer credit which positions credit as a failure of self-responsible adulthood because it places future creditworthiness in jeopardy. In this way, the article suggests a future research agenda on the way that biographical distinctions are enacted through credit and debt, and how notions of youth and adulthood contribute to the qualification and consumption of credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on automated credit lines to vendors trading on Alibaba's online retail platform and a discontinuity in the credit decision algorithm, we document that a vendor's access to FinTech credit boosts its sales growth, transaction growth, and the level of customer satisfaction gauged by product, service, and consignment ratings. These effects are more pronounced for vendors characterized by greater information asymmetry about their credit risk and less collateral, which reveals the information advantage of FinTech credit over traditional credit technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monetary policy is a policy set by the central bank to influence the circulation of money in the economy, which is reflected in the development of the money supply, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and various other economic and financial variables. This study aims to analyze the influence of the implementation of women's rights in the Manpower Law on the level of welfare of women workers in the industrial sector. In the context of gender inequality that still occurs, it is important to explore how existing regulations can improve women's living and working conditions. This study uses a quantitative method with a sample consisting of female workers in several industrial companies. Data was collected through surveys that assessed the understanding and implementation of women's rights in the workplace, as well as their impact on their well-being. Data analysis was carried out using statistical techniques to test the hypothesis proposed. The results of the study are expected to provide a clear picture of the effectiveness of existing policies and their contribution to improving the welfare of women workers. The findings are also expected to serve as a reference for policymakers and companies in formulating better strategies to support women's rights in the industrial sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the determinants of new firm creation in Africa, focusing on external and internal funding sources and their interactions. It also explores the influence of colonial history by separately analyzing former British and French colonies. The primary goal is to help fill crucial gaps in African literature on the determinants of entrepreneurship. Given Africa's widespread poverty and underdevelopment, understanding what drives entrepreneurship is essential for job creation and economic growth. The study reveals three key findings. First, at the full sample level, remittances are the only external financing source positively associated with new firm creation, while foreign aid and foreign direct investment obstacle it. Internal sources, like savings and credit, do not show significant effects. Second, the subsample analysis reveals heterogeneous results: former British colonies' funding sources align with the overall findings, while in former French colonies, only savings support entrepreneurship. Third, considering control variables, the subsample analysis indicates two distinct entrepreneurship models: opportunity-based in former British colonies and necessity-based in former French colonies. These findings are noteworthy and provide significant policy implications at both national and international levels. Crucially, the positive role of remittances in financing new business initiatives, confirms that migration serves as a mutually beneficial arrangement for both sending African countries and the host countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A widely held view is that small firms in developing countries are prevented from making profitable investments by lack of access to credit and insurance markets. One solution is to provide repayment flexibility in credit contracts. Repayment flexibility eases both the credit constraint, as it allows for increased spending during the start-up phase, and offers insurance, in case of fluctuations in income. In a field experiment among traditional microfinance clients and larger collateralized borrowers in Bangladesh, we randomly assign the option to delay up to 2 monthly repayments at any point during a 12-month loan cycle. The flexible contract leads to substantial improvements in the traditional microfinance clients' business outcomes, driven by borrowers in the upper tail of the distribution. In addition, we find a significant impact on socio-economic status, combined with lower default rates. We show theoretically and empirically that these effects are induced by an increase in entrepreneurial risk taking, implying that the primary mechanism is insurance provision. Repayment flexibility also attracts less risk-averse borrowers interested in business expansion. At the same time, the effects for the larger loan are much more modest. Our findings suggest that lack of insurance is an important constraint for small firms but that a simple financial product that increases repayment flexibility can be an effective tool for enabling enterprise growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Debt-financed migration has been a subject of academic interest for the past two decades. This phenomenon can be divided into two main mechanisms: salary deductions and upfront payments. In salary deductions, facilitators provide migrants with upfront funds that are later deducted from their salaries by their employers. In upfront payments, migrants borrow and mortgage assets to obtain capital to cover migration-related expenses upfront or upon arrival. These expenses are then repaid through remittances. Most of the existing literature on debt-financed migration has taken an economic perspective that emphasizes the risks of debt bondage in salary deductions and vulnerability in upfront payments. Studies critically examine the role of states, brokers, and markets in impacting migrants’ well-being and labor and human rights. However, considering the increasing intensity of migration flows and the widespread use of debt as a funding mechanism, evaluating the relevance of the conventional economic framework is essential. I argue this framework can be supplemented with a richer and more empirical understanding of agency that shows how migrants can effectively use debt for empowerment and protection against debt bondage and vulnerability. To support this argument, I delineate an economic anthropology framework highlighting migrants’ agentic use of debt to their advantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy issue in both developed and developing countries remains vital. However, in developing countries, energy pressure is much greater. Despite this, few studies have examined credit, entrepreneurship, and energy transition in developing countries. We addressed this research gap by using the data collected from six regions in Burkina Faso. Employing the multivariate probit and the endogenous switching probit model, three scenarios are explored. We find that entrepreneurship promotes energy transition while access to credit is not useful to the energy transition. However, the joint effect of access to credit and entrepreneurship is 4 times higher for solar PV use and 3 times for biogas adoption. Access to credit promotes the energy transition when credit is devolved to the entrepreneur supporting the trinity rather than the trilemma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mortgage industry is central to ethno-racial stratification in homeownership access. Ample research demonstrates that unequal treatment of minorities has created major differences in the access and exclusion of low-cost loan products in the housing market. While numerous studies have documented the disadvantages Black and Latino homebuyers face, these studies have been limited in their assessment of credit worthiness in accessing a mortgage. This study draws on the annual dataset from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act from 2018 and 2019 to assess ethno-racial disparities in mortgage outcomes by debt-to-income (DTI) levels. I demonstrate that DTI levels vary tremendously by ethno-racial groups. In addition, I show that loan rejections and high-cost loan originations are highest among Blacks and Latinos across DTI levels compared to White applicants. Depending on the adverse loan outcome, Asians perform similarly or slightly underperform compared to Whites. These trends are particularly true when examining high-cost loan originations as Blacks and Latinos with excellent credit worthiness perform similarly as Whites and Asians with below-average credit worthiness. Implications for ethno-racial stratification are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing literature shows that a ban on child labour may be self-enforcing under the extreme assumption that, above the subsistence level, no amount of consumption can compensate parents for the disutility of child labour. The present paper shows that a partial ban may be self-enforcing also in a more general model where education is an alternative to work, and the disutility of child labour can be compensated by higher present consumption or future income, but a total ban may not. It also shows that, in the absence of informational asymmetries, child labour can be eliminated and a first best achieved if the ban is combined with a credit-backed policy including a subsidy to parents, and a tax on skilled adults. A first best is out of reach if the use children make of their time when they are neither at school, nor working in the labour market is private information, because the policy maker then faces an incentive-compatibility constraint. The second-best policy reduces child labour, but not to zero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article offers new evidence on commercial financing in the early modern Ottoman Empire. It examines the little-known role of cash waqfs (nukud-ı mevkufe), Islamic trusts, in supporting Ottoman trade with Europe in the sixteenth century. Most of scholarship on cash waqfs considers this institution exclusively as a provider of micro-credit to consumers because the Islamic legal framework allegedly hindered capital accumulation from this institution. By focusing on the cash waqfs of Sarajevo in Ottoman-Venetian trade in the Adriatic Sea in the 1580s, I demonstrate that this institution could also operate as a source of commercial capital supporting large-scale business ventures. I argue that this was the case in Sarajevo because of the absence of other major capital providers in that city and of the specific role played by local artisanal associations (esnaf) in the foundation and administration of these endowments as well as in the conduct of international trade. These findings for Sarajevo are another demonstration of the operational diversity and flexibility of Islamic credit institutions in the pre-modern period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article introduces the distinction between money-as-money dealing capital (MMDC) and money-as-capital dealing capital (MCDC), laying the foundations for new developments in the field of Marxian political economy. First, it explains why banks, which manage the circulation of money-as-money, are able to issue instruments that perform monetary functions, and also why non-bank financial intermediaries, which manage the circulation of money-as-capital, tend to become increasingly important as the capitalist mode of production evolves. The distinction between MMDC and MCDC also allows for a more thorough understanding of the nature of Marx's category of interest-bearing capital (IBC), explaining when and why a capital's net income takes the form of profit and interest, unveiling the mechanisms that produce the (socially valid) illusion that every capital bears interest. JEL Classification: B14, B26, E11, E43, E44 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the likelihood of deception on the part of borrowers wishing to obtain credit from institutional or private lenders in Peer-to-Peer lending set-ups. In our first study, we identify five explanatory variables that account for nearly forty percent of the propensity to act deceitfully in such circumstances: a poor credit history, debt, risky behavior, and to a much lesser degree, irrational behavior and disconnection from the bundle of needs, goals, and preferences. For the second study, we remodeled the initial questionnaire to adapt it to the needs of lenders and borrowers who engage in on-line peer-to-peer lending, a growing business fueled in part by the COVID pandemic. We find that the three key psychological variables that help to assess the likelihood of deceitful behaviors and possible default on loan reimbursement—namely, risky behaviors, (ir)rationality, and (dis)connection—interact with each other to form a loop. This study presents two benefits: first, we provide evidence that it is to some degree possible to tighten control over lending practices in P2P settings. Second, we offer a new pragmatic tool to gauge potential borrowers' deceit in the context of debt building, notably by combining psychological assessments with standard hard-data measures of risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article attempts to understand the impact of Covid-19 induced disruptions on the business activities of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the Southern State of Tamil Nadu, through a primary survey conducted in Chennai, Coimbatore, Sivakasi, Tiruppur and Tiruchirappalli districts of the State during February-March 2022. Survey results indicate that MSMEs’ sales and liquidity were severely affected during the pandemic, with 65 per cent of the surveyed firms reporting decline in sales and 86 per cent reporting decline in liquidity. The proportion of firms receiving some Government support during Covid-19 was the highest in the micro category. Among various schemes, the outreach of the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) was found to be highest. Econometric analysis suggests that the incidence of shutdown was significantly higher among the ‘micro’ category. Further, revenue loss to a greater extent was more likely among the manufacturing MSMEs as compared to the MSMEs in the services sector, though job losses due to retrenchment was more likely in the case of MSMEs in the services sector. Exporting firms, firms with a website and firms selling online were less likely to face a sharp fall in liquidity. Though MSMEs were found to be optimistic about overall business situation and turnover going forward, these firms remained wary of increased cost of finance, raw material, and wage bill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses data from 111 developing countries to document the effect of social capital on financing constraints faced by private firms. The results show that firms headquartered in countries with high social capital face lower financing constraints than firms headquartered in countries with low social capital. These findings are robust to a comprehensive inclusion of country-level and firm-level controls. We argue that social capital is instrumental in creating an environment in which managers are less likely to act opportunistically, thereby increasing the trust of capital providers in firms. Consequently, capital providers are more likely to grant credit to firms, thereby reducing the financing constraints. The findings also show that the relationship between social capital and financing constraints is moderated by firm-specific and country-specific characteristics. Firms with weaker fundamentals and firms headquartered in countries with weaker institutions are more likely to benefit from improvement in social capital. JEL Codes: A13, G3 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The study examines the efficiency and influence of bank loans on Zimbabwe's agricultural growth. The main objectives are to assess how bank lending affects agricultural output and identify the key factors affecting its effectiveness. Approach: This research uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach to examine the long-term and short-term relationships between bank credit and agricultural output. Results: Extending credit availability may help agricultural development, as the study indicates a strong long-term positive association between bank credit and agricultural production. However, the short-term study yields inconsistent findings, with variations brought on by outside forces, including shifting policies, unstable economies, and unfavourable weather patterns. This suggests that structural problems in the banking or agriculture sectors impede quick recovery. While bank credit is critical in enhancing agricultural growth in Zimbabwe, its effectiveness is contingent upon a stable economic environment and supportive policies. Implication: Therefore, to maximise the impact of bank lending, policymakers should focus on improving financial infrastructure, mitigating external risks, and creating a conducive environment for agricultural investments. Value: This study uniquely examines the impact of bank credit on agricultural productivity in Zimbabwe using a comprehensive set of economic and non-economic variables and advanced econometric methods, providing new, context-specific insights and practical policy recommendations for enhancing agricultural growth in a challenging environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pursuant to its power to borrow money on the credit of the United States, Congress has periodically permitted the Executive Branch to incur debt subject to a steadily-increasing statutory limit--the so-called "debt ceiling." As the national debt climbs, bitter debate over whether the statutory ceiling should be raised, with the specter of default looming, has become a recurring phenomenon. Many scholars of constitutional law think their field of study offers an escape from the debt ceiling, though their proposed solutions vary. There is, at present, no published legal scholarship that defends the constitutionality of the debt ceiling, which could lead policymakers to overestimate the debt ceiling's legal vulnerability. This Article, in contrast, contends that the legal theories for negating the debt ceiling are unconvincing. It proceeds in four parts. Part I discusses the Fourteenth Amendment's Public Debt Clause. Though that Clause likely prohibits default on the national debt, it requires no more that the President pay the costs of debt service while reducing or halting other spending once the government hits the debt ceiling. Much of the government may shut down, but prioritizing spending on debt service avoids the only thing forbidden by the Public Debt Clause--default. Part II discusses the claim that the President may breach the debt ceiling when necessary to fund appropriations. The President, however, is under a constitutional obligation to faithfully execute the laws. This requires the President to respect, rather than breach, the debt ceiling. It is, after all, one of the "laws" that the President is obligated to faithfully execute. This can be done by treating appropriations laws as contingent on compliance with the debt ceiling, consistent with ordinary rules for statutory interpretation. Part III addresses the exotic options. Issuing a trillion-dollar platinum coin or novel bonds are likely unlawful breaches of the statutory debt ceiling, but, even if not, this gambit would be of no use if Congress and the President cannot reach an agreement on the annual federal budget. At that point, appropriations lapse, and the government must shut down anyway. The exotic options come with considerable legal and financial risk; they buy, at best, a few months to negotiate a budget and ultimately solve nothing. Part IV discusses the implications of the conclusion that the Constitution offers no way around the debt ceiling. What seems like bad news actually is not. Although default is both unconstitutional and unlikely, the quite realistic threat of a government shutdown when the government approaches the debt ceiling usefully forces competing factions to negotiate or face a threat of retribution from the voters at the next election. This Article concludes with a discussion of a question of constitutional theory which lurks behind the scholarly dispute over the debt ceiling. Any constitutional theory must be able to answer perhaps the most fundamental question in constitutional law--why should policy debate be removed from the realm of ordinary politics and be resolved instead as a matter of constitutional law? The scholarly attacks on the constitutionality of the debt ceiling, however, fail to even consider this question. Debate over whether a statutory debt ceiling should be used to restrain government spending is precisely the sort of debate that belongs in the realm of ordinary politics, not constitutional law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relevance of the article is due to the insignificant contribution of microfinance to the development of the Russian economic system, especially in the context of supporting small and medium-sized businesses. However, the regulator sees it as a promising sector of the financial market and considers its progressive development necessary. The purpose of the work is to study the current state and identify trends in the development of the microfinance market in Russia. The methodological basis of the study includes empirical observation and analysis. During the work, official statistical data and scientific publications on the topic of microfinance have been used. The article provides a review of current legislative documents regulating the microfinance sector, and analyses the state of the market based on statistical data. It is substantiated that some elements of the monetary and financial policies pursued in the Russian Federation can be applied for the successful development of the microfinance sector, contribute to its effective and balanced work, and improve accessibility and sustainability. In the course of the work, key directions for the development of the microfinance market are formed: improving regulation and supervision; promoting financial literacy of the population; application of digital technologies; expansion and diversification of the product portfolio, development of partnerships, social entrepreneurship, which contribute to the sustainable development of this segment of the financial market. Particular attention is paid to a detailed analysis of improving the regulatory framework for microfinance in Russia from the point of view of legislation on bankruptcy of individuals, stimulating innovation and digitalisation, and supporting social entrepreneurship.

Purpose – In this article, the research objective is to empirically investigate the effect of the adoption of the Brazilian instant payment system, Pix, on the local credit market structure and the diversification of the banking system in Brazilian municipalities. Design/methodology/approach – By analyzing the data, in this study, we compile and align data from supervisory and public sources, covering the period from 2019 to 2022 in Brazil. As of 2014, Brazil was comprised of 5568 municipalities distributed across five regions: North (450 municipalities), Northeast (1792), Midwest (467), Southeast (1668) and South (1191), according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Our analysis relies on the volume and quantity of Pix to the outstanding credit operations in Brazil. Findings – This article provides evidence that the widespread adoption of Pix has impacted the financial structure of municipalities. This analysis of banking concentration in the country and municipalities, based on banking relationships, helped us assess whether the adoption of Pix had any correlation with the increase in credit lines. Overall, the results from the statistical tables suggest that the adoption of Pix may be having a positive impact on the local credit market structure. Originality/value – The originality contribution of the study is to initiate an investigation into the impact of this instant payment system, Pix, on the Brazilian reality. Pix was launched in 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and had significant numbers, such as over 61% of the adult population having at least one Pix key registered in a little over a year; about 100 million people made at least one payment with Pix; and more than 1.4 billion transactions per month, with 72% between individuals, as presented by the REB 2021.

In predictive modeling, addressing class imbalance is a critical concern, particularly in applications where certain classes are disproportionately represented. This study delved into the implications of class imbalance on the interpretability of the random forest models. Class imbalance is a common challenge in machine learning, particularly in domains where certain classes are under-represented. This study investigated the impact of class imbalance on random forest model performance in churn and fraud detection scenarios. We trained and evaluated random forest models on churn datasets with class imbalances ranging from 20% to 50% and fraud datasets with imbalances from 1% to 15%. The results revealed consistent improvements in the precision, recall, F1-score, and accuracy as class imbalance decreases, indicating that models become more precise and accurate in identifying rare events with balanced datasets. Additionally, we employed interpretability techniques such as Shapley values, partial dependence plots (PDPs), and breakdown plots to elucidate the effect of class imbalance on model interpretability. Shapley values showed varying feature importance across different class distributions, with a general decrease as datasets became more balanced. PDPs illustrated a consistent upward trend in estimated values as datasets approached balance, indicating consistent relationships between input variables and predicted outcomes. Breakdown plots highlighted significant changes in individual predictions as class imbalance varied, underscoring the importance of considering class distribution in interpreting model outputs. These findings contribute to our understanding of the complex interplay between class balance, model performance, and interpretability, offering insights for developing more robust and reliable predictive models in real-world applications.

We examine how creditor rights affect the trade-off between non-debt and debt tax shields. Using four bankruptcy reforms and a panel of private and public firms from Italy, we show that laws empowering creditors reduce tax avoidance and increase debt financing, consistent with firms substituting non-debt tax shields with debt tax shields. We corroborate the validity of our findings using a panel of public firms across 33 countries. Additionally, we document that the impact of creditor protection laws is mitigated by tax system characteristics, which significantly reduce the incentives to substitute tax avoidance with debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a regression-discontinuity design and within lender–borrower variation, we analyze how credit default swaps (CDSs) affect bank incentives and borrower outcomes in renegotiations after covenant violations. While existing studies document an investment decline after covenant violations, we find that covenant-violating firms maintain their investment subsequent to the introduction of CDS trading. Moreover, after CDS introduction, covenant-violating firms are less likely to default. Our results suggest that in the private debt markets, CDSs discipline borrowers, while the empty creditor problem due to CDS is mitigated because of lenders' reputation concerns and lower coordination frictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs about risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting growth at the cost of accumulating financial vulnerabilities, and, therefore, a reversal in growth follows. The reversal is particularly pronounced when the low-risk environment persists and credit growth is excessive. Global risk cycles have a stronger effect on growth than local risk cycles via their impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents an unprecedented decrease in young homeownership since the Great Recession driven by regions with high house prices. Using a panel of U.S. metro areas, I calibrate an equilibrium spatial macro-finance model with overlapping generations of mobile households. The dynamics of regional housing markets is explained by an aggregate credit contraction with heterogeneous local impacts rather than by local shocks. Lower millennial income and wealth amplify its effect. The impact of subsidies to first-time buyers is dampened, because they fail to stimulate regions that suffer from larger busts. Place-based subsidies achieve larger gains. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science (CS) is an umbrella term for research with a significant amount of contributions from volunteers. Those volunteers can occupy a hybrid role, being both ‘researcher’ and ‘subject’ at the same time. This has repercussions for questions about responsibility and credit, e.g. pertaining to the issue of authorship. In this paper, we first review some existing guidelines for authorship and their applicability to CS. Second, we assess the claim that the guidelines from the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE), known as ‘the Vancouver guidelines’, may lead to exclusion of deserving citizen scientists as authors. We maintain that the idea of including citizen scientists as authors is supported by at least two arguments: transparency and fairness. Third, we argue that it might be plausible to include groups as authors in CS. Fourth and finally, we offer a heuristic list of seven recommendations to be considered when deciding about whom to include as an author of a CS publication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article brings out the major factors that bottom-of-the-pyramid (BoP) retailers consider when adopting brands. It suggests that, besides the known variables of profitability, relationship and merchandise, these retailers attach importance to efforts that lead to reduced perceived risk. These include replacement and buyback facilities besides credit. They define the relationship with distributors/wholesalers not just as firm-firm business-based, but also as stemming from familial, social and ethnic dimensions. Based on 472 responses of acceptance or rejection from BoP retailers from rural India, the findings show a positive, significant relationship with brand characteristics. On the other hand, product-related factors showed a significant but negative relationship. The study found a significant but negative association between distributor relationship and probability of adoption, which should be considered in conjunction with credit, replacement and buyback facilities. The authors suggest that, while brand demand is a significant factor, strategies based on service-dominant logic would be more effective in sustained adoption of brands among small retailers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a proprietary data set on international private equity activity, we study the determinants of buyout investments across 61 countries and 19 industries over the period of 1990 to 2017. We find that countries with cyclically strong economies, more active stock and credit markets, and better rule of law experience more buyout activity. Countries also receive more buyout capital following investor protection and contract enforcement reforms. The set of determinants we identify appear somewhat unique to buyout investments, because other forms of investment such as foreign direct investment, gross capital formation, investments in R&D, and M&A activity do not respond similarly to these factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of data concerning non-bank financial institutions in Romania reveals a consistent increase in loan issuance over the past 11 years, especially in the context of the pandemic. The excessive growth in the number of loans has generated an elevated risk of non-repayment, necessitating careful debtor management. Warning signs, such as decreasing available funds and payment delays, represent critical points for assessing credit risk. National-level analysis underscores the importance of implementing preventive measures to avoid the risk of bankruptcy. Non-bank financial institutions must adopt proactive and adaptable strategies to efficiently manage the loan portfolio and ensure the long-term stability of the financial sector.

This study aims to examine the effect of Current Accounts, Savings, and Time Deposits on Banking Credit of Regional Development Banks (BPD) in Indonesia. The data in this study are in the form of quarterly reports from Regional Development Banks (BPD) in Indonesia. Current Accounts, Savings, and Time Deposits on Banking Credit of Regional Development Banks (BPD) in Indonesia is expected to be evident in 2019–2022. The research method used is the panel regression method. The outcomes show that current accounts, savings and time deposits influences the credit of bank BPD. R Settled 0.994461 current accounts, savings and time deposits factors influence bank credit. The Adjusted R Squared value of 0.994461 indicates that the independent variables can explain the dependent variable 99.44% of the time, while other factors not included in the model have an impact on the remaining 0.5539%. This means that 99.44% of the variable Savings and Time Deposits can predict bank credit, while the remaining 0.5539 percent is impacted by other factors not investigated in this study. This result serves as a warning to BPD banks in each province to be careful in extending credit to customers, because when credit increases, current accounts, savings and time deposits also increase. And if credit decreases, it's the other way around. This means that the higher the credit given to customers, the banking income will also increase with the help of increased current accounts, savings and time deposits. The significance and implications of the results of this research can provide an illustration that although regional banks (BPD) still have an impact on the Indonesian economy even though they only provide samples in the form of savings products.