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2. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Murray, Christopher JL, Ortblad, Katrina F, Guinovart, Caterina, Lim, Stephen S, Wolock, Timothy M, Roberts, D Allen, Dansereau, Emily A, Graetz, Nicholas, Barber, Ryan M, Brown, Jonathan C, Wang, Haidong, Duber, Herbert C, Naghavi, Mohsen, Dicker, Daniel, Dandona, Lalit, Salomon, Joshua A, Heuton, Kyle R, Foreman, Kyle, Phillips, David E, Fleming, Thomas D, Flaxman, Abraham D, Phillips, Bryan K, Johnson, Elizabeth K, Coggeshall, Megan S, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Achoki, Tom, Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C, Agardh, Emilie Elisabet, Akena, Dickens, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel, Alegretti, Miguel Angel, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allen, Peter J, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku Jibat, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Binagwaho, Agnes, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Bose, Dipan, Brainin, Michael, Breitborde, Nicholas, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Colomar, Mercedes, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, Courville, Karen J, Cowie, Benjamin C, Criqui, Michael H, Dandona, Rakhi, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, and Deribe, Kebede

Subjects
HIV/AIDS, Prevention, Rare Diseases, Vector-Borne Diseases, Infectious Diseases, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Aetiology, Infection, Good Health and Well Being, Age Distribution, Epidemics, Female, Global Health, HIV Infections, Humans, Incidence, Malaria, Male, Mortality, Organizational Objectives, Sex Distribution, Tuberculosis, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundThe Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.MethodsTo estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.FindingsGlobally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.InterpretationOur estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2014

3. Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Ng, Marie, Fleming, Tom, Robinson, Margaret, Thomson, Blake, Graetz, Nicholas, Margono, Christopher, Mullany, Erin C, Biryukov, Stan, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Achoki, Tom, AlBuhairan, Fadia S, Alemu, Zewdie A, Alfonso, Rafael, Ali, Mohammed K, Ali, Raghib, Guzman, Nelson Alvis, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Banerjee, Amitava, Barquera, Simon, Basu, Sanjay, Bennett, Derrick A, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed, Cabral, Norberto, Nonato, Ismael Campos, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Courville, Karen J, Criqui, Michael H, Cundiff, David K, Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C, Dandona, Lalit, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Ding, Eric L, Durrani, Adnan M, Esteghamati, Alireza, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fay, Derek FJ, Feigin, Valery L, Flaxman, Abraham, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Goto, Atsushi, Green, Mark A, Gupta, Rajeev, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hankey, Graeme J, Harewood, Heather C, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon, Hernandez, Lucia, Husseini, Abdullatif, Idrisov, Bulat T, Ikeda, Nayu, Islami, Farhad, Jahangir, Eiman, Jassal, Simerjot K, Jee, Sun Ha, Jeffreys, Mona, Jonas, Jost B, Kabagambe, Edmond K, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Kwan, Gene, Lai, Taavi, Leinsalu, Mall, Li, Yichong, Liang, Xiaofeng, Liu, Shiwei, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lu, Yuan, Ma, Jixiang, Mainoo, Nana Kwaku, Mensah, George A, Merriman, Tony R, Mokdad, Ali H, Moschandreas, Joanna, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Nand, Devina, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nelson, Erica Leigh, Neuhouser, Marian L, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Oti, Samuel O, and Pedroza, Andrea

Subjects
Pediatric, Prevention, Obesity, Nutrition, 3.1 Primary prevention interventions to modify behaviours or promote wellbeing, Aetiology, Prevention of disease and conditions, and promotion of well-being, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Metabolic and endocrine, Stroke, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Child, Cost of Illness, Female, Humans, Male, Models, Theoretical, Overweight, Prevalence, Regression Analysis, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundIn 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013.MethodsWe systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19,244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).FindingsWorldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m(2) or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3-30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down.InterpretationBecause of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2014

4. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Alexander, Lily, Anderson, H Ross, Bachman, Victoria F, Biryukov, Stan, Brauer, Michael, Burnett, Richard, Casey, Daniel, Coates, Matthew M, Cohen, Aaron, Delwiche, Kristen, Estep, Kara, Frostad, Joseph J, KC, Astha, Kyu, Hmwe H, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Ng, Marie, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Thomas, Bernadette A, Wagner, Joseph, Aasvang, Gunn Marit, Abbafati, Cristiana, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw F, Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Biju, Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E, Aburto, Tania C, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Adofo, Koranteng, Adou, Arsène K, Adsuar, José C, Afshin, Ashkan, Agardh, Emilie E, Al Khabouri, Mazin J, Al Lami, Faris H, Alam, Sayed Saidul, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alegretti, Miguel A, Aleman, Alicia V, Alemu, Zewdie A, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Ali, Mohammed K, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Peter J, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ameh, Emmanuel A, Ameli, Omid, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Arnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Al, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Atkinson, Charles, Avila, Marco A, Awuah, Baffour, Badawi, Alaa, Bahit, Maria C, Bakfalouni, Talal, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Balalla, Shivanthi, Balu, Ravi Kumar, Banerjee, Amitava, Barber, Ryan M, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H, Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh, Basto-Abreu, Ana C, Basu, Arindam, Basu, Sanjay, Basulaiman, Mohammed O, Ruvalcaba, Carolina Batis, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Benjet, Corina, Bennett, Derrick A, Benzian, Habib, Bernabé, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku J, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bikbov, Boris, Abdulhak, Aref A Bin, Blore, Jed D, Blyth, Fiona M, Bohensky, Megan A, Başara, Berrak Bora, Borges, Guilherme, Bornstein, Natan M, Bose, Dipan, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert R, Brainin, Michael, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J, Brenner, Hermann, Briggs, Adam D M, Broday, David M, Brooks, Peter M, Bruce, Nigel G, Brugha, Traolach S, Brunekreef, Bert, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Bui, Linh N, Bukhman, Gene, Bulloch, Andrew G, Burch, Michael, Burney, Peter G J, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R, Campuzano, Julio C, Cantoral, Alejandra J, Caravanos, Jack, Cárdenas, Rosario, Cardis, Elisabeth, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castro, Ruben E, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Çavlin, Alanur, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Chen, Honglei, Chen, Wanqing, Chen, Zhengming, Chiang, Peggy P, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Chugh, Sumeet S, Cirillo, Massimo, Claßen, Thomas KD, Colistro, Valentina, Colomar, Mercedes, Colquhoun, Samantha M, Contreras, Alejandra G, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooperrider, Kimberly, Cooper, Leslie T, Coresh, Josef, Courville, Karen J, Criqui, Michael H, Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia, Damsere-Derry, James, Danawi, Hadi, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I, Davis, Adrian, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Dayama, Anand, de Castro, E Filipa, De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa, De Leo, Diego, de Lima, Graça, Degenhardt, Louisa, del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Dellavalle, Robert P, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Jarlais, Don C Des, Dessalegn, Muluken, deVeber, Gabrielle A, Devries, Karen M, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dicker, Daniel, Ding, Eric L, Dokova, Klara, Dorsey, E Ray, Driscoll, Tim R, Duan, Leilei, Durrani, Adnan M, Ebel, Beth E, Ellenbogen, Richard G, Elshrek, Yousef M, Endres, Matthias, Ermakov, Sergey P, Erskine, Holly E, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Fahimi, Saman, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fay, Derek F J, Feigin, Valery L, Feigl, Andrea B, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Ferrari, Alize J, Ferri, Cleusa P, Flaxman, Abraham D, Fleming, Thomas D, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle J, Paleo, Urbano Fra, Franklin, Richard C, Gabbe, Belinda, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Gankpé, Fortuné G, Gansevoort, Ron T, García-Guerra, Francisco A, Gasana, Evariste, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gething, Pete, Gibney, Katherine B, Gillum, Richard F, Ginawi, Ibrahim A M, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Goenka, Shifalika, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Dantes, Hector Gomez, Gona, Philimon, de Cosio, Teresita Gonzalez, González-Castell, Dinorah, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Guerrant, Richard L, Gugnani, Harish C, Guillemin, Francis, Gunnell, David, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gutiérrez, Reyna A, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagan, Holly, Hagstromer, Maria, Halasa, Yara A, Hamadeh, Randah R, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L, Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Heredia-Pi, Ileana B, Hernandez, Lucia, Heuton, Kyle R, Heydarpour, Pouria, Hijar, Martha, Hoek, Hans W, Hoffman, Howard J, Hornberger, John C, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Hsairi, Mohamed, Hu, Guoqing, Hu, Howard, Huang, Cheng, Huang, John J, Hubbell, Bryan J, Huiart, Laetitia, Husseini, Abdullatif, Iannarone, Marissa L, Iburg, Kim M, Idrisov, Bulat T, Ikeda, Nayu, Innos, Kaire, Inoue, Manami, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jansen, Henrica A, Jarvis, Deborah L, Jassal, Simerjot K, Jauregui, Alejandra, Jayaraman, Sudha, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Fan, Jiang, Guohong, Jiang, Ying, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Roseline, Sidibe S Kany, Karam, Nadim E, Karch, André, Karema, Corine K, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre P, Keren, Andre, Khader, Yousef S, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khan, Ejaz A, Khang, Young-Ho, Khatibzadeh, Shahab, Khonelidze, Irma, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yunjin, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kissela, Brett M, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke D, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kose, M Rifat, Kosen, Soewarta, Kraemer, Alexander, Kravchenko, Michael, Krishnaswami, Sanjay, Kromhout, Hans, Ku, Tiffany, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F, Lai, Taavi, Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larson, Heidi J, Larsson, Anders, Laryea, Dennis O, Lavados, Pablo M, Lawrynowicz, Alicia E, Leasher, Janet L, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, James, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Liang, Juan, Liang, Xiaofeng, Lim, Stephen S, Lindsay, M Patrice, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Logroscino, Giancarlo, London, Stephanie J, Lopez, Nancy, Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lozano, Rafael, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Ma, Jixiang, Ma, Stefan, Machado, Vasco M P, MacIntyre, Michael F, Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos, Mahdi, Abbas A, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mangalam, Srikanth, Mapoma, Christopher C, Marape, Marape, Marcenes, Wagner, Margolis, David J, Margono, Christopher, Marks, Guy B, Martin, Randall V, Marzan, Melvin B, Mashal, Mohammad T, Masiye, Felix, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Matsushita, Kunihiro, Matzopoulos, Richard, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McKay, Abigail C, McKee, Martin, McLain, Abigail, Meaney, Peter A, Medina, Catalina, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Mekonnen, Wubegzier, Melaku, Yohannes A, Meltzer, Michele, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary, Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Misganaw, Awoke, Mishra, Santosh, Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed, Mohammad, Karzan A, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen L, Monasta, Lorenzo, Hernandez, Julio C Montañez, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Morawska, Lidia, Mori, Rintaro, Moschandreas, Joanna, Moturi, Wilkister N, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Mueller, Ulrich O, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Mullany, Erin C, Murthy, Kinnari S, Naghavi, Mohsen, Nahas, Ziad, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nand, Devina, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nash, Denis, Neal, Bruce, Nejjari, Chakib, Neupane, Sudan P, Newton, Charles R, Ngalesoni, Frida N, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nguyen, Grant, Nguyen, Nhung T, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nisar, Muhammad I, Nogueira, José R, Nolla, Joan M, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Norman, Rosana E, Norrving, Bo, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Olusanya, Bolajoko O, Omer, Saad B, Opio, John Nelson, Orozco, Ricardo, Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S, Jr., Pain, Amanda W, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Panelo, Carlo Irwin A, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Parry, Charles D, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Patten, Scott B, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris I, Pearce, Neil, Pedraza, Lilia S, Pedroza, Andrea, Stokic, Ljiljana Pejin, Pekericli, Ayfer, Pereira, David M, Perez-Padilla, Rogelio, Perez-Ruiz, Fernando, Perico, Norberto, Perry, Samuel A L, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Peterson, Carrie B, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R, Phua, Hwee Pin, Plass, Dietrich, Poenaru, Dan, Polanczyk, Guilherme V, Polinder, Suzanne, Pond, Constance D, Pope, C Arden, Pope, Daniel, Popova, Svetlana, Pourmalek, Farshad, Powles, John, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prasad, Noela M, Qato, Dima M, Quezada, Amado D, Quistberg, D Alex A, Racapé, Lionel, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Raju, Murugesan, Rakovac, Ivo, Rana, Saleem M, Rao, Mayuree, Razavi, Homie, Reddy, K Srinath, Refaat, Amany H, Rehm, Jürgen, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Riccio, Patricia M, Richardson, Lee, Riederer, Anne, Robinson, Margaret, Roca, Anna, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Romieu, Isabelle, Ronfani, Luca, Room, Robin, Roy, Nobhojit, Ruhago, George M, Rushton, Lesley, Sabin, Nsanzimana, Sacco, Ralph L, Saha, Sukanta, Sahathevan, Ramesh, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Salomon, Joshua A, Salvo, Deborah, Sampson, Uchechukwu K, Sanabria, Juan R, Sanchez, Luz Maria, Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G, Sanchez-Riera, Lidia, Sandar, Logan, Santos, Itamar S, Sapkota, Amir, Satpathy, Maheswar, Saunders, James E, Sawhney, Monika, Saylan, Mete I, Scarborough, Peter, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Schneider, Ione J C, Schöttker, Ben, Schwebel, David C, Scott, James G, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serdar, Berrin, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shaddick, Gavin, Shahraz, Saeid, Levy, Teresa Shamah, Shangguan, Siyi, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin H, Shinohara, Yukito, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga D, Silberberg, Donald H, Simard, Edgar P, Sindi, Shireen, Singh, Abhishek, Singh, Gitanjali M, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soljak, Michael, Soneji, Samir, Søreide, Kjetil, Soshnikov, Sergey, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stapelberg, Nicolas J C, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Steckling, Nadine, Stein, Dan J, Stein, Murray B, Stephens, Natalie, Stöckl, Heidi, Straif, Kurt, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Sturua, Lela, Sunguya, Bruno F, Swaminathan, Soumya, Swaroop, Mamta, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Takahashi, Ken, Talongwa, Roberto T, Tandon, Nikhil, Tanne, David, Tanner, Marcel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Te Ao, Braden J, Teixeira, Carolina M, Téllez Rojo, Martha M, Terkawi, Abdullah S, Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis, Thackway, Sarah V, Thomson, Blake, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Thrift, Amanda G, Thurston, George D, Tillmann, Taavi, Tobollik, Myriam, Tonelli, Marcello, Topouzis, Fotis, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X, Trasande, Leonardo, Trillini, Matias, Trujillo, Ulises, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Uchendu, Uche S, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Uzun, Selen B, van de Vijver, Steven, Van Dingenen, Rita, van Gool, Coen H, van Os, Jim, Varakin, Yuri Y, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N, Vavilala, Monica S, Veerman, Lennert J, Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo, Venketasubramanian, N, Vijayakumar, Lakshmi, Villalpando, Salvador, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wagner, Gregory R, Waller, Stephen G, Wallin, Mitchell T, Wan, Xia, Wang, Haidong, Wang, JianLi, Wang, Linhong, Wang, Wenzhi, Wang, Yanping, Warouw, Tati S, Watts, Charlotte H, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Werdecker, Andrea, Wessells, K Ryan, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Williams, Thomas N, Woldeyohannes, Solomon M, Wolfe, Charles D A, Wong, John Q, Woolf, Anthony D, Wright, Jonathan L, Wurtz, Brittany, Xu, Gelin, Yan, Lijing L, Yang, Gonghuan, Yano, Yuichiro, Ye, Pengpeng, Yenesew, Muluken, Yentür, Gökalp K, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Younoussi, Zourkaleini, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaki, Maysaa E, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Zhu, Shankuan, Zou, Xiaonong, Zunt, Joseph R, Lopez, Alan D, Vos, Theo, and Murray, Christopher J

Published
2015
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5. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D, and Murray, Christopher J L

Published
2014
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6. Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Chang, Jung-Chen, Bennett, Derrick A, AlBuhairan, Fadia S, Cabral, Norberto, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Fleming, Tom, Banerjee, Amitava, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Courville, Karen J, Margono, Christopher, Ali, Mohammed K, Achoki, Tom, Ammar, Walid, Mullany, Erin C, Blore, Jed, Nonato, Ismael Campos, Biryukov, Stan, Robinson, Margaret, Alemu, Zewdie A, Anwari, Palwasha, Thomson, Blake, Alfonso, Rafael, Graetz, Nicholas, Ali, Raghib, Ng, Marie, Basu, Sanjay, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E, Guzman, Nelson Alvis, Abraham, Jerry P, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, and Barquera, Simon

Abstract

BACKGROUND: In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013. METHODS: We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19,244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m(2) or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3-30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down. INTERPRETATION: Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2014
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7. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Murray, Christopher J L, Ortblad, Katrina F, Guinovart, Caterina, Lim, Stephen S, Wolock, Timothy M, Roberts, D Allen, Dansereau, Emily A, Graetz, Nicholas, Barber, Ryan M, Brown, Jonathan C, Wang, Haidong, Duber, Herbert C, Naghavi, Mohsen, Dicker, Daniel, Dandona, Lalit, Salomon, Joshua A, Heuton, Kyle R, Foreman, Kyle, Phillips, David E, Fleming, Thomas D, Flaxman, Abraham D, Phillips, Bryan K, Johnson, Elizabeth K, Coggeshall, Megan S, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Achoki, Tom, Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C, Agardh, Emilie Elisabet, Akena, Dickens, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel, Alegretti, Miguel Angel, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allen, Peter J, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku Jibat, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Binagwaho, Agnes, Blore, Jed D, Bose, Dipan, Brainin, Michael, Breitborde, Nicholas, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Colomar, Mercedes, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, Courville, Karen J, Cowie, Benjamin C, Criqui, Michael H, Dandona, Rakhi, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Deribe, Kebede, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Driscoll, Tim R, Durrani, Adnan M, Ellenbogen, Richard G, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Esteghamati, Alireza, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fra Paleo, Urbano, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gibney, Katherine B, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Glaser, Elizabeth L, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Rahul, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Pi, Ileana B Heredia, Hoek, Hans W, Hornberger, John C, Hosgood, H Dean, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Huang, John J, Iburg, Kim M, Idrisov, Bulat T, Innos, Kaire, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Kankindi, Ida, Karam, Nadim E, Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khan, Ejaz Ahmed, Khang, Young-Ho, Khonelidze, Irma, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Knibbs, Luke, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, S, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F, Lai, Taavi, Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larson, Heidi J, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, James, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Ricky, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lotufo, Paulo A, Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro, Maclachlan, Jennifer H, Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos, Majdan, Marek, Mapoma, Christopher Chabila, Marcenes, Wagner, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Masci, Joseph R, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mazorodze, Tasara T, Mckay, Abigail Cecilia, Meaney, Peter A, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen Liddell, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Mori, Rintaro, Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Murthy, Kinnari S, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K M Venkat, Nash, Denis, Nejjari, Chakib, Nelson, Robert G, Neupane, Sudan Prasad, Newton, Charles R, Ng, Marie, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Nowaseb, Vincent, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Olusanya, Bolajoko O, Omer, Saad B, Opio, John Nelson, Orisakwe, Orish Ebere, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Papachristou, Christina, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Patten, Scott B, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris Igor, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qato, Dima, Quezada, Amado D, Quistberg, D Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M, Razavi, Homie, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Ronfani, Luca, Roy, Nobhojit, Sabin, Nsanzimana, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Samonte, Genesis May J, Sawhney, Monika, Schneider, Ione J C, Schwebel, David C, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shiue, Ivy, Shivakoti, Rupak, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silberberg, Donald H, Silva, Andrea P, Simard, Edgar P, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soneji, Samir, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Uchendu, Uche S, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Vallely, Andrew J, Vasankari, Tommi J, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Waller, Stephen, Wallin, Mitchell T, Wang, Linhong, Wang, Sharon Xiaorong, Wang, Yanping, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, White, Richard A, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Thomas Neil, Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wong, John Q, Xu, Gelin, Yang, Yang C, Yano, Yuichiro, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Zou, Xiao Nong, Lopez, Alan D, Vos, Theo, Murray, Christopher J L, Ortblad, Katrina F, Guinovart, Caterina, Lim, Stephen S, Wolock, Timothy M, Roberts, D Allen, Dansereau, Emily A, Graetz, Nicholas, Barber, Ryan M, Brown, Jonathan C, Wang, Haidong, Duber, Herbert C, Naghavi, Mohsen, Dicker, Daniel, Dandona, Lalit, Salomon, Joshua A, Heuton, Kyle R, Foreman, Kyle, Phillips, David E, Fleming, Thomas D, Flaxman, Abraham D, Phillips, Bryan K, Johnson, Elizabeth K, Coggeshall, Megan S, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Achoki, Tom, Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C, Agardh, Emilie Elisabet, Akena, Dickens, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel, Alegretti, Miguel Angel, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allen, Peter J, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku Jibat, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Binagwaho, Agnes, Blore, Jed D, Bose, Dipan, Brainin, Michael, Breitborde, Nicholas, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Colomar, Mercedes, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, Courville, Karen J, Cowie, Benjamin C, Criqui, Michael H, Dandona, Rakhi, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Deribe, Kebede, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Driscoll, Tim R, Durrani, Adnan M, Ellenbogen, Richard G, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Esteghamati, Alireza, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fra Paleo, Urbano, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gibney, Katherine B, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Glaser, Elizabeth L, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Rahul, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Pi, Ileana B Heredia, Hoek, Hans W, Hornberger, John C, Hosgood, H Dean, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Huang, John J, Iburg, Kim M, Idrisov, Bulat T, Innos, Kaire, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Kankindi, Ida, Karam, Nadim E, Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef 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Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (, Correction in: Lancet, vol. 384, article nr. 9947, doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61632-9

Published
2014
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8. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Alexander, Lily, Anderson, H. Ross, Bachman, Victoria F., Biryukov, Stan, Brauer, Michael, Burnett, Richard, Casey, Daniel, Coates, Matthew M., Cohen, Aaron, Delwiche, Kristen, Estep, Kara, Frostad, Joseph J., KC, Astha, Kyu, Hmwe H., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Ng, Marie, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Thomas, Bernadette A., Wagner, Joseph, Aasvang, Gunn Marit, Abbafati, Cristiana, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw F., Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Biju, Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E., Aburto, Tania C., Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Adofo, Koranteng, Adou, Arsène K., Adsuar, José C., Afshin, Ashkan, Agardh, Emilie E., Al Khabouri, Mazin J., Al Lami, Faris H., Alam, Sayed Saidul, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I., Alegretti, Miguel A., Aleman, Alicia V., Alemu, Zewdie A., Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Ali, Mohammed K., Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Peter J., Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A., Amare, Azmeraw T., Ameh, Emmanuel A., Ameli, Omid, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O., Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Arnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S. 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Abstract

Summary Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the fi rst of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantifi cation, particularly of modifi able risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the fi rst level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular fi ltration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account

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