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BackgroundHere, we address a pivotal factor in Alzheimer’s prevention—identifying those at risk early, when dementia can still be avoided. Recent research highlights an accelerated forgetting phenotype as a risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease. We hypothesized that delayed recall over 4 weeks would predict cognitive decline over 1 year better than 30-min delayed recall, the current gold standard for detecting episodic memory problems which could be an early clinical manifestation of incipient Alzheimer’s disease. We also expected hippocampal subfield volumes to improve predictive accuracy.MethodsForty-six cognitively healthy older people (mean age 70.7 ± 7.97, 21/46 female), recruited from databases such as Join Dementia Research, or a local database of volunteers, performed 3 memory tasks on which delayed recall was tested after 30 min and 4 weeks, as well as Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination III (ACE-III) and CANTAB Paired Associates Learning. Medial temporal lobe subregion volumes were automatically measured using high-resolution 3T MRI. The ACE-III was repeated after 12 months to assess the change in cognitive ability. We used univariate linear regressions and ROC curves to assess the ability of tests of delayed recall to predict cognitive decline on ACE-III over the 12 months.ResultsFifteen of the 46 participants declined over the year (≥ 3 points lost on ACE-III). Four-week verbal memory predicted cognitive decline in healthy older people better than clinical gold standard memory tests and hippocampal MRI. The best single-test predictor of cognitive decline was the 4-week delayed recall on the world list (R2 = .123, p = .018, β = .418). Combined with hippocampal subfield volumetry, 4-week verbal recall identifies those at risk of cognitive decline with 93% sensitivity and 86% specificity (AUC = .918, p ConclusionsWe show that a test of accelerated long-term forgetting over 4 weeks can predict cognitive decline in healthy older people where traditional tests of delayed recall cannot. Accelerated long-term forgetting is a sensitive, easy-to-test predictor of cognitive decline in healthy older people. Used alone or with hippocampal MRI, accelerated forgetting probes functionally relevant Alzheimer’s-related change. Accelerated forgetting will identify early-stage impairment, helping to target more invasive and expensive molecular biomarker testing.

Earlier diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) requires biomarkers sensitive to the structural and functional changes associated with the disease. While considerable progress has been made in the development of structural biomarkers, functional biomarkers of early cognitive change are still needed. We present Fastball, a new EEG method for the passive, objective and implicit measurement of recognition memory, that requires no behavioural response or comprehension of the task. Younger adults (aged M=24 SD=6), older adults (aged M=74 SD=4) and AD patients aged M=79 SD=10), (n=20 per group) completed the Fastball task, lasting just under three minutes. The task required the passive viewing of rapidly presented images and assessed their spontaneous ability to differentiate between images on the basis of previous exposure, i.e. old/new. Participants were not instructed to attend to previously seen images and provided no behavioural response. Following the Fastball task, they completed a cued recall task to measure their explicit recognition of previously seen stimuli. AD patients showed significantly impaired recognition memory compared to healthy older adult controls in the Fastball task (p

REGISTRY Investigators of the European Huntington's Disease Network and COHORT Investigators of the Huntington Study Group., Studying individuals with extreme phenotypes could facilitate the understanding of disease modification by genetic or environmental factors. Our aim was to identify Huntington's disease (HD) patients with extreme symbol digit modality test (SDMT) scores. We first examined in HD the contribution of cognitive measures of the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) in predicting clinical endpoints. The language-independent SDMT was used to identify patients performing very well or very poorly relative to their CAG and age cohort. We used data from REGISTRY and COHORT observational study participants (5,603 HD participants with CAG repeats above 39 with 13,868 visits) and of 1,006 healthy volunteers (with 2,241 visits), included to identify natural aging and education effects on cognitive measures. Separate Cox proportional hazards models with CAG, age at study entry, education, sex, UHDRS total motor score and cognitive (SDMT, verbal fluency, Stroop tests) scores as covariates were used to predict clinical endpoints. Quantile regression for longitudinal language-independent SDMT data was used for boundary (2.5% and 97.5% quantiles) estimation and extreme score analyses stratified by age, education, and CAG repeat length. Ten percent of HD participants had an extreme SDMT phenotype for at least one visit. In contrast, only about 3% of participants were consistent SDMT extremes at two or more visits. The thresholds for the one-visit and two-visit extremes can be used to classify existing and new individuals. The identification of these phenotype extremes can be useful in the search for disease modifiers., This work was in part funded by a grant from the EuropeanCommission under the 7th framework programme (RD-Connect, grantagreement number 305444).

© 2019 The Authors Understanding the ecological traits which predispose species to local or global extinction allows for more effective pre-emptive conservation management interventions. Insect population declines are a major facet of the global biodiversity crisis, yet even in Europe they remain poorly understood. Here we identify traits linked to population trends in ‘common and widespread’ UK moths. Population trend data from the Rothamsted Research Insect Survey spanning 40 years was subject to classification and regression models to identify common traits among species experiencing a significant change in occurrence. Our final model had an accuracy of 76% and managed to predict declining species on 90% of occasions, but was less successful with increasing species. By far the most powerful predictor associated for declines was moth wingspan with large species declining more frequently. Preference for woody or herbaceous larval food sources, nocturnal photoperiod activity, and richness of habitats occupied also proved to be significantly associated with decline. Our results suggest that ecological traits can be reliably used to predict declines in moths, and that this model could be used for Data Deficient species, of which there are many.

Next-generation genetic sequencing (NGS) technologies facilitate the screening of multiple genes linked to neurodegenerative dementia, but there is little guidance available about their use in clinical practice. Guidelines on which patients would most profit from testing, and information on the likelihood of discovery of a causal variant in a clinical syndrome, are conspicuously absent from the literature, mostly for a lack of large-scale studies. We applied a validated NGS dementia panel to 3241 patients with dementia and healthy aged controls; 13,152 variants were classified by likelihood of pathogenicity. We identified 354 deleterious variants (DV, 12.6% of patients); 39 were novel DVs. Age at clinical onset, clinical syndrome and family history each strongly predict the likelihood of finding a DV, but healthcare setting and gender did not. DVs were frequently found in genes not usually associated with the clinical syndrome. Patients recruited from primary referral centres were compared to those seen at higher-level research centres and a national clinical neurogenetic laboratory; rates of discovery were comparable, making selection bias unlikely and the results generalizable to clinical practice. We estimated penetrance of DVs using large-scale online genomic population databases and found 71 with evidence of reduced penetrance. Two DVs in the same patient were found more frequently than expected. These publicly-available data should provide a basis for informed counselling and clinical decision making.

Background Vascular dementia is the second most common cause of dementia affecting over seven million people worldwide, yet there are no licensed treatments. There is an urgent need for a clinical trial in this patient group. Subcortical ischaemic vascular dementia is the most common variant of vascular dementia. This randomised trial will investigate whether use of calcium channel blockade with amlodipine, a commonly used agent, can provide the first evidence-based pharmacological treatment for subcortical ischaemic vascular dementia. Methods/Design This is a randomised controlled trial of calcium channel blockade with Amlodipine For the treatment oF subcortical ischaEmic vasCular demenTia (AFFECT) to test the hypothesis that treatment with amlodipine can improve outcomes for these patients in a phase IIb, multi-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial. The primary outcome is the change from baseline to 12 months in the Vascular Dementia Assessment Scale cognitive subscale (VADAS-cog). Secondary outcomes include cognitive function, executive function, clinical global impression of change, change in blood pressure, quantitative evaluation of lesion accrual based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), health-related quality of life, activities of daily living, non-cognitive dementia symptoms, care-giver burden and care-giver health-related quality of life, cost-effectiveness and institutionalisation. A total of 588 patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to either amlodipine or placebo, recruited from sites across the UK and enrolled in the trial for 104 weeks. Discussion There are no treatments licensed for vascular dementia. The most common subtype is subcortical ischaemic vascular dementia (SIVD). This study is designed to investigate whether amlodipine can produce benefits compared to placebo in established SIVD. It is estimated that the numbers of people with VaD and SIVD will increase globally in the future and the results of this study should inform important treatment decisions. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN31208535. Registered on 7 March 2014.

Next-generation genetic sequencing (NGS) technologies facilitate the screening of multiple genes linked to neurodegenerative dementia, but there is little guidance available about their use in clinical practice. Guidelines on which patients would most profit from testing, and information on the likelihood of discovery of a causal variant in a clinical syndrome, are conspicuously absent from the literature, mostly for a lack of large-scale studies. We applied a validated NGS dementia panel to 3241 patients with dementia and healthy aged controls; 13,152 variants were classified by likelihood of pathogenicity. We identified 354 deleterious variants (DV, 12.6% of patients); 39 were novel DVs. Age at clinical onset, clinical syndrome and family history each strongly predict the likelihood of finding a DV, but healthcare setting and gender did not. DVs were frequently found in genes not usually associated with the clinical syndrome. Patients recruited from primary referral centres were compared to those seen at higher-level research centres and a national clinical neurogenetic laboratory; rates of discovery were comparable, making selection bias unlikely and the results generalizable to clinical practice. We estimated penetrance of DVs using large-scale online genomic population databases and found 71 with evidence of reduced penetrance. Two DVs in the same patient were found more frequently than expected. These publicly-available data should provide a basis for informed counselling and clinical decision making.

Background Type 2 diabetes is a risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease (AD), and AD brain shows impaired insulin signalling. The role of peripheral insulin resistance on AD aetiopathogenesis in non-diabetic patients is still debated. Here we evaluated the influence of insulin resistance on brain glucose metabolism, grey matter volume and white matter lesions (WMLs) in non-diabetic AD subjects. Methods In total, 130 non-diabetic AD subjects underwent MRI and [18F]FDG PET scans with arterial cannula insertion for radioactivity measurement. T1 Volumetric and FLAIR sequences were acquired on a 3-T MRI scanner. These subjects also had measurement of glucose and insulin levels after a 4-h fast on the same day of the scan. Insulin resistance was calculated by the updated homeostatic model assessment (HOMA2). For [18F]FDG analysis, cerebral glucose metabolic rate (rCMRGlc) parametric images were generated using spectral analysis with arterial plasma input function. Results In this non-diabetic AD population, HOMA2 was negatively associated with hippocampal rCMRGlc, along with total grey matter volumes. No significant correlation was observed between HOMA2, hippocampal volume and WMLs. Conclusions In non-diabetic AD, peripheral insulin resistance is independently associated with reduced hippocampal glucose metabolism and with lower grey matter volume, suggesting that peripheral insulin resistance might influence AD pathology by its action on cerebral glucose metabolism and on neurodegeneration.

Background Liraglutide is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogue currently approved for type 2 diabetes and obesity. Preclinical evidence in transgenic models of Alzheimer’s disease suggests that liraglutide exerts neuroprotective effects by reducing amyloid oligomers, normalising synaptic plasticity and cerebral glucose uptake, and increasing the proliferation of neuronal progenitor cells. The primary objective of the study is to evaluate the change in cerebral glucose metabolic rate after 12 months of treatment with liraglutide in participants with Alzheimer’s disease compared to those who are receiving placebo. Methods/design ELAD is a 12-month, multi-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase IIb trial of liraglutide in participants with mild Alzheimer’s dementia. A total of 206 participants will be randomised to receive either liraglutide or placebo as a daily injection for a year. The primary outcome will be the change in cerebral glucose metabolic rate in the cortical regions (hippocampus, medial temporal lobe, and posterior cingulate) from baseline to follow-up in the treatment group compared with the placebo group. The key secondary outcomes are the change from baseline to 12 months in z scores for clinical and cognitive measures (Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale—Cognitive Subscale and Executive domain scores of the Neuropsychological Test Battery, Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes, and Alzheimer’s Disease Cooperative Study—Activities of Daily Living) and the incidence and severity of treatment-emergent adverse events or clinically important changes in safety assessments. Other secondary outcomes are 12-month change in magnetic resonance imaging volume, diffusion tensor imaging parameters, reduction in microglial activation in a subgroup of participants, reduction in tau formation and change in amyloid levels in a subgroup of participants measured by tau and amyloid imaging, and changes in composite scores using support machine vector analysis in the treatment group compared with the placebo group. Discussion Alzheimer’s disease is a leading cause of morbidity worldwide. As available treatments are only symptomatic, the search for disease-modifying therapies is a priority. If the ELAD trial is successful, liraglutide and GLP-1 analogues will represent an important class of compounds to be further evaluated in clinical trials for Alzheimer’s treatment. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01843075. Registration 30 April 2013. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13063-019-3259-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.