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Corn futures markets have experienced increased intraday price jumps which have been blamed on public information shocks and the reduced trading latency brought by electronic trading. This paper contributes to shed light on this issue by assessing intraday jumps in the corn futures nearby transaction prices from 2008 to 2015. We use a nonparametric jump test and a variance analysis to estimate jump risk. Our results suggest that the real-time trading of major USDA reports has substantially increased the frequency and the magnitude of jump risk. In contrast, results suggest that the electronic platform along with reduced latency may have increased liquidity and prevented price spikes on non-USDA report days.

Recently, U.S. live cattle futures prices have experienced high levels volatility which has raised concerns about the impact of high frequency trading. This paper identifies the market microstructure noise present in high frequency data and its implications for realized volatility of returns in live cattle futures markets from 2011 to 2015. Short- and long-term components of volatility are identified using nonparametric and semi-parametric procedures. While market microstructure noise is found to increase realized volatility when the sampling frequency is below 4-minute time intervals, the particularly high volatility in live cattle markets in 2015 is found to be strongly driven by market fundamentals, affected by supply and demand shocks. Important policy implications from the results are drawn.

In 2012, the European Commission is supposed to release legislative proposals on the indirect land use change issue. This component has induced experts to reconsider the expected GHG (GreenHouse Gas) emissions reduction for 1st generation biofuels. Pilot plants are currently breaking the ground in European Union and some of them are planning to start commercial production in 2012. Those new generations are based on ligno-cellulosic biomass which does not compete with food and feed production. That is the reason why 2nd generation might seem more attractive than 1st generation in terms of environmental benefits. However, land and water factors used for 2nd generation biofuels can compete with other uses. Hence, taking into account LUC (Land Use Change) issues might come up against these expected environmental benefits. Few studies analyzed LUC emissions for both 1st and 2nd generation biofuels. This report comes within a global project at IFPRI in order to assess the LUC emissions for 2nd generation. We first provide a methodology to adjust yields for a new ligno-cellulosic biomass "Miscanthus". Indeed, this dedicated energy crop is expected to have a high potential in biomass production in European countries. We further provide an analysis about how to include Miscanthus based biofuels into supply side. In particular, we develop a methodology on land allocation mechanism and on two conversion technologies of ligno-cellulosic biomass into 2nd generation biofuels.; Fin 2012, la Commission européenne devrait livrer son projet législatif sur la question des changements d'allocation des sols indirects. L'intégration de cette composante dans les analyses de cycle de vie viendrait remettre en cause la réduction initialement supposée des GES (Gaz à Effet de Serre) associées aux biocarburants de 1re génération. Actuellement, les usines pilotes pour les biocarburants de 2nde génération se multiplient rapidement et sont à l'aube de passer à l'étape de commercialisation. Ces nouvelles générations utilisent une biomasse ligno-cellulosique qui n'entre pas en compétition dans la chaîne de production alimentaire. Elles semblent alors plus attractives sur le plan environnemental. Cependant, les facteurs terre et eau peuvent entrer en compétition avec d'autres usages. Cet effet peut remettre en cause l'atout environnemental des 2ndes générations lors de la prise en compte des CAS (changement d'allocation des sols). Peu d'études se sont intéressées à cette composante à la fois pour les 1res et 2ndes générations de biocarburants. Ce rapport s'inscrit au cœur d'un projet de l'IFPRI plus large afin d'évaluer la composante CAS. Nous apportons dans notre analyse une méthodologie permettant d'introduire le secteur des biocarburants de 2nde génération dans un modèle d'analyse en équilibre général calculable. D'une part, ce rapport apporte une méthodologie d'ajustement des rendements du Miscanthus, une biomasse ligno-cellulosique ayant un fort potentiel de production en Union Européenne. D'autre part, nous développons une réflexion sur l'introduction du Miscanthus dans la modélisation de l'offre sur deux éléments : le marché de la terre au niveau des mécanismes de réallocation et les technologies de transformation de la biomasse en biocarburant.

We analyze complicated ethanol/commodity policies not just in (q, p) space, but also in “policy space” and “welfare space.” Specific advantages of conducting policy analysis in welfare and policy spaces are (1) it makes clearer the distributional consequences of policy change instead of focusing solely on the aggregate welfare consequences of policy change; (2) it can be used to analyze the effects of many (even infinitely many) policies instead of just a few; and (3) it makes clearer what it means for policies to be more/less “efficient,” and for policy instruments to make each other more/less “efficient.” We show the usefulness of our framework to critique various conclusions that have recently been expressed in the literature on ethanol policies that employ multiple instruments.

Mientras en unos lugares se sufre por hambre, en otros hay alimentos que están a punto de ser arrojados a la basura. En este estudio se va a analizar la pérdida de alimentos en las primeras etapas de la cadena de suministro para la mandarina oneco en el suroeste antioqueño y dos agentes con producción en Manizales y en Caldas (Colombia). Para la recolección de los datos se va a llevar a cabo una serie de entrevistas semisestructuradas a agentes clave dentro de la cadena. Después de realizar el análisis se encuentra que para los productores entrevistados el FL afecta principalmente en la pre-cosecha, a traves de choques climáticos y hongos. Para la cosecha y post cosecha, el FL es relativamente bajo. Entre las principales soluciones se destaca un sistema más eficiente de información de precios, para que los productores puedan ajustar sus estpectativas estimadas, llevando a un mercado más eficiente.

Este trabajo analiza los efectos de una selección de eventos de la historia reciente de Colombia (2000-2019) para determinar por medio de un modelo GARCH (1,1) si dichos eventos afectan la volatilidad de las acciones de Bancolombia, Ecopetrol y Grupo Aval en el New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), en comparación a la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC), de forma estadísticamente significativa. Los eventos considerados son elecciones presidenciales, tratados de libre comercio y eventos relacionados con las FARC. Los resultados muestran que no hay uniformidad de reacción ante los mismos eventos en ambos países y que la reacción tampoco es necesariamente la misma para las tres acciones en la misma bolsa de valores. Finalmente se exploran diversos motivos que podrían explicar los distintos comportamientos para cada acción frente a los eventos seleccionados y se hacen sugerencias para futuros análisis., This article analyzes the effects of a series of events in recent Colombian history (2000-2019) by implementing a GARCH (1,1) model in order to determine if these events affect the volatility of three specific stocks: Bancolombia, Ecopetrol and Grupo Aval. We compare the effects of volatility of these stocks in New York Stock Exchange and Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (Colombia Stock Exchange). The events considered are presidential elections, free trade agreements and events related to the FARC. The results show that there is no uniformity of reaction to the same events in both countries and that the reaction is not necessarily the same for the three shares on the same stock exchange either. Finally, various reasons that could explain the different responses are presented, while making suggestions for future analysis